The story this summer

August is a particularly important month in the application cycle because it represents such a large share of all applications lodged throughout the year – at least a quarter of the total. More broadly, the summer months plus September comprise about 70% of all applications. This year, applications fell by -17% in August and by -18% across June, July, and August.

These declines are even worse than last summer, when the Dependants Ban deterred many “main” (i.e., student) applicants because they could no longer bring their families. About 99,500 main applicants applied in August 2026 – 20,800 fewer than in August 2025, and the lowest count since tracking began in 2022. The following chart, created by Spencer Withrington for a recent article in his market intelligence newsletter, , shows that the downward trend has characterised all months of 2026 so far.

The Dependants Ban continues its work

The Dependants Ban means that the Home Office will only process applications from a family member of a student if that student is in a research master’s or PhD programme. This has resulted in a cumulative drop of -88% in dependant applications between December 2023 (the last month before the rule took effect) and August 2026. Dependants can only apply when their submission is attached to that of the student they hope to accompany, which means that the fall in dependants’ applications is also a factor in lower applications from students themselves.

Visa refusals will further influence enrolments

Looking for a moment at spring 2026 trends, 31,222 sponsored study visas were granted in Q2 2026, a -43% drop in issuances compared with Q2 2025. While fewer applications were most of that story, a high visa refusal rate of about 8% in that quarter was also influential. Visa rejection rates are variable through the year, and the rate in the second half may prove to be lower than the first half. Still, Q2 trends alone remind us that of the low number of applications received the summer months of 2026 (181,500), several thousand will likely be refused.

Q2 2026 visa data show that refusal rates were especially high for key sending markets including India, Nigeria, Bangladesh, and Ghana, and that visa grants were very low for India, Nepal, Nigeria (down by least -50% compared with Q2 2025) and especially Pakistan (-90%).

Contributing factors

In 2025, it was primarily the Dependants Ban that depressed sponsored study visa applications. This factor is still in play, but it is now joined by a host of other ones.

One of these is the UK’s Basic Compliance Assessment (BCA) framework and its accompanying Red-Amber-Green (RAG) banding system. As of 1 June 2026, the RAG system obliges UK institutions to maintain a visa refusal rate of less than 5%. Universities whose refusal rates reach above that benchmark can be subject to sanctions or even to the suspension of their license to sponsor international students. This is causing many institutions to apply much greater scrutiny to student applicants. Some are taking it a step further and limiting or pausing recruitment in markets where visa rejections are high.

Pakistan is a good example of the combined effect of high visa refusal rates and the RAG system on applications. Pakistani students don’t want a rejection on their record, and they know they are increasingly likely to receive one if they apply. They are also seeing some UK universities lose confidence in recruiting in their country due to the RAG system. At the same time, Pakistani students are aware of a growing list of compelling alternative destinations.

The spike in withdrawals

Again, we can use Pakistan to illustrate another trend that will affect enrolments in UK universities in 2026 and 2027. As a sending market, Pakistan held up remarkably well after the Dependants Ban, with +13% more Pakistani main applications in 2024 despite an -85% drop in Pakistani dependant applications. But now that Pakistan is more affected by the RAG, visa decision delays, and high rejection rates than many other sending markets, the patience of the market is being tested. In late-2025, only a few hundred Pakistani students withdrew their sponsored study visa applications. In Q1 2026, nearly 3,000 did.

Pakistan is the most striking example of a rising withdrawal rate, but it is not the only one. In Q4 2025, the total number of withdrawals (from all sending markets) was under 2,000. In Q1 2026, withdrawals more than tripled to about 7,000.

Things to think about

In the conclusion to Admit’s Issue 021 newsletter, Mr Withrington leaves university leaders with a few questions they might ask themselves about two key markets as a result of low applications and more visa rejections in the first three quarters of 2026:

• “Do you know your own refusal count for Nigeria for the September 2026 intake? Enroly’s rate is 12% and the Home Office’s for April to June was 25%. If yours is anywhere near either, ask whether one market is enough on its own to carry you over the 5% line.

• What happens to your recruitment plan if Chinese demand falls by a fifth, the fall the Home Office table shows for the summer as a whole? On Day 28 China supplied more than all of the sector’s growth in undergraduate international acceptances.”

In June 2026, Professor Malcolm Press, president of Universities UK, was quoted in a government release announcing the RAG system. Mr Press said the sector committed to partnering with the government on integrity concerns, but he warned:

“What universities need from government is policy stability, transparent visa decision-making, and real-time data to act on emerging concerns. The sector relies on international student income, and recent sharp declines have led to substantial cost-cutting and job losses. It is essential that we build a fair, stable, and transparent system that works in the national interest …. International students bring significant economic and soft power benefits, contributing £37 billion in export earnings.”

For additional background, please see:

• “UK: Visa application withdrawals surpass refusals in Q1 2026”
• “UK: Sponsored study visa issuances down, rejection rates up, and more”
• “Narrowing bands of compliance: How the UK’s new RAG system will impact international student recruitment”

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The research found that the government’s investment in foreign students – e.g., supporting them through health services, social security, and financial grants – is less than what students who remain in the country after graduating contribute to the economy.

About 20% of graduates from the European Economic Area (aka the EEA, which is the EU plus Norway, Iceland, and Liechtenstein) stay for at least some time in the Netherlands. This rises to around 40% of non-EEA students. The overall stay rate is approximately 25% more than 10 years ago.

Non-European students contribute more revenue

The benefits of EEA versus non-EEA students are different. EEA students pay the same tuition as Dutch students – €2,694 in 2026 – and can apply for student finance under certain conditions. Therefore, the costs of hosting them during their studies is higher than for non-EEA students. By contrast, non-EEA students pay full fare and cannot access financing, which means they contribute more revenue to universities while they study.

Even after graduating, non-EEA students who remain to work are more than twice as valuable to the Dutch economy than students from Europe. Over their lifetime in the Netherlands, non-EEA students contribute €243,000 compared with €82,500 for European students.

But what about housing?

CBP found that: “More international students do add to housing pressure in the short term. But over time, the effect is limited, because the market adjusts – and how far it does depends on housing policy, not student numbers.”

The housing situation for students in the Netherlands is so dire that some domestic students give up and either resign themselves to hours-long commutes from their family home or abandon applying to their preferred university because it is too far. As reported in the , “some universities, including the University of Amsterdam and Utrecht University, now officially advise incoming international students to reject their academic admission offers and stay home if they have not secured a verified housing contract prior to the start of the semester.”

A recent survey completed by social policy thinktank of 700 international students found that almost one-third reported searching for more than three months before securing accommodation. That research, and significant media coverage, finds that some students never secure suitable housing, leaving them vulnerable to homelessness and thievery.

Hanna Smit, a housing consultant at Dutch tenant rights firm Stichting WOON, advocates for significant investment in student housing on campuses, explaining that “because student campus projects are specifically zoned, they do not compete for land or resources with regular, high-priority residential housing developments.” This recommendation should be broadly interesting to governments in other major study abroad destinations, where public concern about housing often leads to negative perceptions of immigration levels and/or international students.

Despite the housing crisis, over 80% of international student respondents to the ResearchNed survey said they were satisfied or very satisfied with their experience in Dutch higher education.

A self-imposed cap

Just before the CPB released its research findings on the tangible benefits of international students, 13 Dutch universities signed an agreement on 15 July 2026 with the government to self-regulate their foreign enrolment volumes. The universities have committed to admitting fewer than 17,000 foreign students every year. This volume represents an 11% decrease over allowed enrolments in 2022 and 2023.

Dutch universities’ English-language programmes are a major draw for international students. According to the agreement, the 13 universities will not develop any more of these programmes in the short ter unless they are tied to labour shortages in sectors including STEM, healthcare, and technology. Also exempted are programmes developed within the European Universities framework, which is based on deep institutional cooperation across EU nations.

Some industry experts have criticised the deal, pointing to “random [international enrolment] targets” that fail to consider the sharp contraction of the Dutch working-age population and economic labour shortages. Max van Duijn, chair of the Young Academy of the Netherlands (De Jonge Akademie), told :

“Internationalisation should not be viewed as a problem to be tackled, given that it is a precondition for a well-functioning academic system and for an innovative country with an open economy.”

For additional background, please see:

• “Netherlands reports first-ever decrease in foreign enrolment for 2025/26“
• “Dutch government walks back controversial measures to constrain English-taught degrees“

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The Studymove analysis – including a forecast for the rest of this year and into 2027 – is based on commencement data from the first six months of 2026 as well as current student visa trends.

Flat or negative growth for higher education

For four consecutive years, there has been no growth in number of new international students in higher education in Australia, and this year the projection is for a -4% decline in commencements.

“It has been four years of basically no growth in commencements,” said Mr Ramirez. “Although we don’t have a cap system technically, obviously the policy framework has been constraining growth. And effectively, we’re actually having a ceiling on the number of commencements of about 210,000 [students per year]. I think this clearly shows that the cake is not growing. In order to grow your piece of the cake, what institutions are probably having to do is just to get market share from competitors.”

Robust onshore progression but declining flows from overseas

Mr Ramirez points out that policy settings are also shaping offshore and onshore enrolment trends. Faced with a AU$2,500 visa application fee and higher visa requirements in general, fewer students are applying from their home countries (about -10%). In contrast, the number of foreign students progressing from one institution or level of study to the next within Australia rose about +9%. Students are making the most of their time and education in Australia by securing more than one visa – but this does not translate into more new international students.

The impact on universities is growing

Onshore flows of students are increasingly determined by price: many students are choosing to progress to private education providers (where annual tuition is about AU$24,000) rather than universities (where students can pay more than AU$40,000).

And while universities received more NOSC allocations in 2026 than in 2025, most did not reach their quota. In fact, only five universities reached 80% of their NOSC allowance. Mr Ramirez points out that government policies are depressing overseas demand, so NOSC allowances are a weak predictor of new enrolments.

Visa rejection rates are high but not for all source markets

Driven by a significant spike in month-by-month rejections from January 2026 on, Australian immigration officials rejected about 21,000 higher education student visa applications from offshore applicants in the first six months of 2026. Refusals during this period were mainly concentrated in three key markets: India, Nepal, and Bangladesh. Should the rejection rates remain high, Mr Ramirez says international commencements could drop off by an additional -8% by the end of the year.

Recommendations for recruitment

With a smaller flow of incoming international students, Australian institutions must distinguish their offer not just from competitors in leading destinations, but also from each other. Market stabilisation means that growth will stem from gains in market share rather than in increasing the volume of new students.

Mr Ramirez advises universities to take a conservative and careful approach to revenue forecasting – fewer international students naturally reduces the tuition line, especially since most institutions are not benefitting from a significant uptick in domestic enrolments to mitigate the trend.

The policy environment is such that Mr Ramirez says that recruitment strategies should be laser-focused and based on a more nuanced understanding of diversification: reducing overreliance on established sources of students – but not by flinging a wide net across the globe hoping that it lands somewhere promising. Market characteristics of countries in emerging regions are unique and dynamic, and policy instruments affect demand differently not just at the regional level, but at the country level. A great deal of research is called for to determine whether a new market makes sense to invest time and money in.

Developing growth markets where institutions have developed brand image and strong relationships is a strategy made for these unpredictable times. Recruitment results will increasingly be determined by those relationships as they allow for more precise student targeting and understanding of outbound drivers.

“This sector has very, very strong roots,” concludes Mr Ramirez. “And those roots are actually based on people-to-people relations. For many, many years, this sector has been building relationships based on trust, based on understanding the needs of students, and at looking what is the best for students…we are not a commodity sector; we are a people sector.”

For additional background, please see:

• “Australia poised to further restrict immigration in bid to drive down net migration figures”
• “Australia: As visa applications from foreign students fall, the government has set the national target for new international students in 2027”
• “Australia: Multiple data indicators signal further declines ahead for international student numbers”

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QS describes “a gradual reshaping of Indian student mobility by 2030” where the Big Four destinations remain central but with very different positions on the leaderboard. The UK is projected to overtake Canada and the US as the top destination for Indian students. Otherwise, key destinations in the EU are projected to see the fastest growth in Indian enrolments over the rest of this decade – albeit from a smaller base.

Further: “With transnational education and international branch campuses set to expand and mature in India, we could see further mobility changes,” cautions the report. “By 2030, significant volumes of Indian students may study at the branch campuses of international institutions, rather than travelling overseas.”

The overall picture is one of a broadening and more balanced distribution of Indian students, both within the Big Four and otherwise. While Canada and the US are both projected to see their Indian enrolments decrease through 2030, they continue host significant numbers. Germany is projected to see the largest gains with a forecast to nearly double its Indian enrolment, at which point it will have surpassed Australia as the fourth-largest host of Indian students.

“Demand from Indian students looking to study in the ‘Big Four’ is expected to remain substantial,” says QS. “But students’ choices are likely to be shaped by affordability, visa policy, post-study work opportunities and perceptions of long-term value.”

We recently highlighted the continuing strong growth of India’s middle class, and in particular its expansion outside of the major cities of Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru, Chennai, and Hyderabad as people move to smaller cities to escape high costs of living.

We noted as well that India’s middle-class families are cautious, careful, and looking for value for money. Where the affluent class is able to make decisions based on rankings and other markers of prestige, the middle class is more interested in institutions in destinations with welcoming policies, lower tuition and living costs, and strong post-graduate outcomes.

These are some of the same drivers that we see reflected in the QS analysis which concludes that, “Institutions in established destinations will need to work harder to defend their position, while universities in fast-growing markets have an opportunity to build visibility with Indian students looking for credible alternatives.”

For additional background, please see:

• “Changing landscape for student recruitment in India calls for new strategies“
• “The questions families are actually asking: Inside the student advising conversation in 2026“
• “What is happening to student mobility flows between the Global South and Global North?“

The post The outlook for Indian student mobility through 2030 appeared first on şÚÁĎąŮÍř Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

China and India

US colleges’ top two markets, China and India, saw steep declines of -28% and -57%, respectively. This has massive implications: For years, Chinese and Indian students have composed more than half of the total international student body in the US. Many colleges remain incredibly dependent on the continued flow of these students into their programmes despite efforts to recruit across a wider range of countries.

Diversification interrupted

To complicate matters, diversification is becoming more difficult because students in several growth markets are banned from entering the US (e.g., Nigeria) or are experiencing high visa rejection rates (e.g., Ghana and Nepal). It is no coincidence that:

• Visa issuances to Ghanaian and Nepali students dropped by -52% and -55%, respectively, in 2025 compared with 2024;
• The CommonApp platform (which receives a large number of all international applications to US colleges) registered fewer applications from Asian and African students, respectively, for 2025/26 programmes. The percentage drop was -34% for applications from Ghana.

Slow visa processing is also hitting the applications pipeline and causing stress for institutions and students alike.

The importance of the Indian decline

The huge drop in Indian visa issuances is particularly difficult for US graduate/STEM programmes. The number of Indian students pursuing graduate degrees is the number in undergraduate programmes.

Trends for India have been worrisome for some time. For example:

• More than 6 in 10 (61%) Indian students were rejected for a visa in the US in 2025;
• The vast majority (61%) of institutions participating in the survey for the IIE’s 2026 Spring Snapshot on International Educational Exchange said Indian application volumes had declined.

The decelerating trend for India will almost certainly continue. A new rule from the Trump administration abolishes the decades-old Duration of Status (D/S) system that among other things, allowed students to progress from F-1 academic studies to the Optional Practical Training (OPT) work stream. The new system requires students to ask for a visa extension from immigration authorities after they have been in the US for four years, with no guarantee they will be approved. Virtually all students will need an extension to participate in post-study OPT since it happens after the completion of four years of study.

A total of in 2024/25 – accounting for . The end of D/S – if it happens, since plaintiffs including NAFSA are now challenging this in court – will remove a key driver of Indian student mobility to the US.

The following chart was created by International Data & Recruitment Strategist Dave Amor, who posted it on LinkedIn. Mr Amor illustrates the decline of total F-1 visa issuances in the past year – and the extreme drop for the Indian market.

Broad implications

Earlier this month, based on the application trends reported by US colleges in the Institute of International Education’s (IIE) Spring Snapshot survey. NAFSA projects that there will be up to 111,000 fewer international students at US higher education institutions in 2026/27, resulting in close to US$3.4 billion in lost revenue and nearly 40,000 job losses. 

For additional background, please see:

• “Visa delays and policy uncertainty projected to reduce foreign enrolment in the US by more than 100,000 students this fall“
• “Decline in Indian demand a major factor in softer outlook for foreign enrolment in US higher education in 2026/27“

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Based on institutional responses in IIE’s , the estimate is for a 9.5% decline in overall foreign enrolment in the US in fall 2026. This could result in . In economic terms, that translates to up to US$3.4 billion in lost spending and 39,000 jobs affected.

“The projections underscore what we’ve long warned,” said Fanta Aw, Executive Director and CEO of NAFSA. “US policy and regulations affect where international students plan to invest their future—and their decisions carry significant short- and long-term consequences for US society and economy, All Americans lose when international students and scholars are driven to more welcoming countries.”

Where is this coming from?

The analysis points to three major factors behind the projected decline in enrolment for 2026/27: reduced or diverted demand; process and policy around student visas; and policy uncertainty.

There are a number of indicators of declining demand for study in the US this year, whether those students are simply deferring their study plans or choosing an alternate destination. First, recent findings from the highlight that the international pool of doctoral candidates shrunk by -21% for 2026/27, a trend that led to an overall decline in international PhD admissions of -17%. Meanwhile, says that international applications filed via its college admissions platform are down -9% for the coming academic year. And, as we reported recently, nearly two-thirds of respondents to IIE’s Spring Snapshot Survey are expecting enrolment declines for 2026/27.

Those trends are no doubt influenced by a series of underlying issues around student visa processing. An expanded ban on travel to the US affecting citizens from 39 countries, including Nigeria, has been in place since 1 January 2026. While there has not been an outright pause on visa processing this year, the State Department’s prioritisation of visa processing for FIFA World Cup ticket holders traveling to the US supplanted the historical norm of prioritising student applicants during the peak processing months over spring and summer. Making the situation even more challenging, there are widespread reports of significant processing delays and in India, China, and Europe.

Finally, both announced and anticipated rule changes are combining to create additional uncertainty for international students in the US this year. A new rule will come into effect on 15 September 2025 to replace the longstanding “Duration of Status” framework with a fixed Admit-Until-Date (AUD). The new AUD mechanism sets a maximum limit for which a student visa can be granted, and requires continuing students to apply for an extension with US immigration officials. This, says NAFSA, creates “significant planning uncertainty for prospective students, particularly those considering longer-degree programmes,” and an issue which is compounded by “the current administration’s continued warnings that it intends to reform the Optional Practical Training programme.”

The need for speed

“Forfeiting the US position as the top destination for global talent hurts students, hospitals, research laboratories, the economy – and carries the real risk that the next big invention will not happen on US soil,” adds Dr Aw. “We urge the administration and Congress to take swift action to ensure international student contributions continue to benefit American ingenuity, economic prosperity, and national security.”

In order to ease the projected decline for 2026/27, NAFSA is urging the US administration to take the following steps.

• Prioritise processing for all F and M visa applicants as well as for those pursuing a J visa for exchange in the US;
• Exempt students and exchange visitors from the current travel ban “while maintaining background checks and vetting required for visa issuance”; and
• Preserve Optional Practical Training for foreign graduates in the US.

For additional background, please see:

• “Decline in Indian demand a major factor in softer outlook for foreign enrolment in US higher education in 2026/27“
• “Updated: US Department of Homeland Security publishes rule to end Duration of Status for international students“
• “US regulatory agenda for 2026 aims to end ‘duration of status and introduce Optional Practical Training and H-1B reforms“
• “US extends travel ban, Nigeria now included on ‘restricted’ list“

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The answer used to be pretty simple: the Big Four. Just a couple of years ago, Australia, Canada, the UK, and the US welcomed more than 70% of all Indian students abroad, offering a range of quality study opportunities, post-study work rights, and the possibility of immigration.

But a combination of factors is changing (1) the shape of Indian student mobility, (2) the drivers of that mobility, and (3) the profile of Indian students most likely to consider study abroad.

Weakening demand for Big Four destinations

Readers of şÚÁĎąŮÍř Monitor are well aware of policies that are making it more difficult for students from the Global South to study in Australia, Canada, the UK, and US. In brief, these include reduced incentives for immigration, changes to work rights, high visa rejection rates, steeper visa application fees and/or other costs of study, and high costs of living. Some of the following statistics indicate the effect of policies that discourage Indian students from applying to Big Four countries at this time:

• High visa rejection rates: 61% in the US (2025), 62% in Canada (Q1 2026), and 60% in Australia (February 2026);
• Declining visa applications: for example, in Canada, Indian study permit applications fell from 35% of the total in 2023 to 17% in 2025;
• Fewer new students: for example, commencements fell by -33% in the UK between 2022/23 and 2024/25, -5.5% in Australia in 2025 versus 2024, and -44% in the US for F-1 visas in the first half of 2025 compared with the same period in 2024.

Other destinations gaining share

Indian students are diverting their interest to alternative destinations. From 2024 to 2025, Indian enrolments rose by:

• +21% in Russia;
• +20% in Germany;
• +20% in Ireland;
• +18% in New Zealand;
• +17% in France;
• +5% in Italy.

New drivers of Indian outbound mobility

India’s affluent and middle classes are growing rapidly. Goldman Sachs estimates that the “affluent” cohort nearly tripled from 24 million people in 2015 to about 60 million in 2023, and the firm predicts that this cohort will reach 100 million by 2027.

As for the middle class, Oxford Economics notes:

“India’s middle class is the second largest [after China] in emerging markets at just over 27 million households, but it’s roughly the same size as Brazil’s, which has a population seven times smaller. By 2029, India’s middle class will more than double in size to reach 62 million households.”

The size and growth of a country’s middle class is important to all global product and service companies because it indicates robust and burgeoning purchasing power. Middle-class consumers are able to go beyond satisfying basic needs (e.g., food and shelter) to seeking quality and prestigious brands. They are thus more likely to be interested in – and able to pay for – programmes at foreign universities that result in well-regarded and internationally recognised degrees.

The following chart shows the rapid forecasted rise of the middle class in India (as you can see, the Philippines, Vietnam, Egypt, and Thailand are also notable in this regard).

What’s the catch?

If we move beyond middle-class statistical indicators, the picture becomes more complex. As marketing intelligence firm notes of India’s middle class:

“Simply put, prudence in everything so as to feel safe, secure and comfortable. Always aspirational but rarely overambitious. This cohort is perhaps becoming more inscrutable and not as easy to please as they perhaps have been in the past.”

India’s middle-class households may be moving from “need” to “want” in their purchasing mindset, but that doesn’t mean that “want” always translates to “buy.” Indian fintech company estimates that India’s “middle-class salaried household” spending is spread across three categories:

• “39% goes to obligatory expenses – things like loan [payments], insurance premiums, and rent. These are the non-negotiables that hit before anything else.
• 32% goes to necessities – groceries, utilities, fuel, medical expenses, school fees. Things you need but have some control over.
• 29% goes to discretionary spending – dining out, entertainment, subscriptions, clothing, travel, and everything else.”

SalarySe explains:

“That 29% discretionary figure sounds generous until you remember it’s the last call on a budget that’s already been carved up by rent, [loan payments], school fees, and petrol. In practice, it’s where the most emotional spending happens, and where the most guilt tends to follow.”

As a result, India’s middle-class families are necessarily cautious, careful, and looking for value for money. Where the affluent class is able to make decisions based on rankings and other markers of prestige, the middle class is more interested in institutions in destinations with welcoming policies, lower tuition and living costs, and strong post-graduate outcomes. It may take more time and resources to convince families in this cohort that a university is worth their money.

This is especially true given that the number of quality higher education institutions in India is rising. India stands out as the country that sent more universities (eight) into the 2026 World University Rankings for the first time than any other country – and that is in a field of 106 countries. Over a span of 12 years, India’s higher education system has risen more quickly in the rankings than any other G20 country.

India is also notable for its interest in partnerships with foreign universities and transnational education arrangements such as branch campuses and joint programmes. The Indian government has official strategies aimed at reducing brain drain, and it is at least as interested in partnering with foreign universities and attracting international students as it is in sending students abroad.

What does it all mean?

India’s middle class is expanding the most significantly outside of major metropolises such as Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru, Chennai, and Hyderabad, as people move to smaller cities to escape high costs of living. More families are now able to consider study abroad in Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities and rural areas than in the past.

Because characteristics of the middle class will vary across cities and regions, working with vetted, proven education agents and forming relationships with top Indian universities and schools is more crucial today than ever. Ensuring that agents are reputable – with strong track records and demonstrated ethics – is key, especially for institutions in Big Four destinations where visa rejection rates are high.

Just as important is developing proof points on the institutional website, through alumni and student ambassadors, and in all communications that enrolling with your university delivers amazing value for money. This means collecting data on post study outcomes; being completely transparent with costs; and offering distinguishing features such as applications assistance, comprehensive support services, internships, and institution-employer connections.

Quite simply, Indian families have been spooked by policy developments in the Big Four. They will need more reassurance, proof, and support from institutions and agents alike. They have more options – as enrolment data in alternative destinations clearly shows. As a result, India represents a more discerning – while still very promising – source of international students.

For additional background, please see:

• “What is happening to student mobility flows between the Global South and Global North?”
• “The number of Indian students abroad fell in 2025”
• “How post-study work rights can make or break the return on investment for study abroad”

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has just been released, and it gathers responses from 585 US colleges and universities over a period from 5 May through June 11. Collectively, the responding institutions host roughly half of the international students in the US.

The outlook for 2026/27

The survey highlights the following key trends for the coming academic year.

• Application volumes: 14% of responding institutions are reporting an increase in application volumes for 2026/27; 20% said that application volumes are roughly the same as the previous year; and 59% report a decrease in the number of applications.

• Projected enrolment: Nearly two in three respondents (63%) expect a decline in international student numbers for 2026/27; 26% predict stable enrolment year-over-year; and 11% forecast an increase in foreign enrolment.

Shifting demand from India looms as a major factor in the overall outlook for the year ahead. As IIE explains:

“At the country level, most reporting institutions indicate that international student applications either increased or remained stable across the majority of the 21 leading places of origin surveyed…The most pronounced decreases are reported for India, with only 39% of institutions indicating stable or increased application numbers. This is notable given that students from India made up nearly one-third (31%) of all international students in the United States in 2024/25.”

Contributing factors

Nearly all respondents (92%) cited visa processing issues (e.g., delays in processing or rising rejection rates) as the most significant factor affecting the enrolment outlook for this year. “Aligned with this concern,’ adds IIE, “64% of respondents noted an increase in questions and concerns from both current and prospective international students about the US political climate.”

The expanded travel ban and other travel restrictions were noted as an important factor by 80% of responding institutions. And the report notes as well that more than three in four respondents (77%) cited increased competition as a factor for 2026/27 with more students choosing to study in a destination other than the US.

“While this preliminary data suggests that enrollment numbers will decline in the 2026/27 academic year due to numerous factors,” concludes IIE, “it remains too early to determine the magnitude of potential declines.”

For additional background, please see:

• “US regulatory agenda for 2026 aims to end ‘duration of status’ and introduce Optional Practical Training and H-1B reforms“
• “What is happening to student mobility flows between the Global South and Global North?“
• “US visa processing centres in Africa to be reduced by more than half; only the latest barrier for African students“
• “Universities urged to focus on ‘factors they can control’ as policy settings depress international student enrolments in the Big Four“

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