These trends are highlighted in results from the most recent by NAFSA, Oxford Test of English, and Studyportals. The survey asked respondents from over 254 universities across 36 countries about new international enrolments in the January–March 2026 intake; perceived barriers to enrolling students; and recruitment strategies.

The research found that universities in the Big Four are struggling with policy-induced enrolment pressures, but it also revealed that they are adapting recruitment strategies for their current context. Edwin van Rest, CEO of Studyportals, commented: “Universities that are agile, proactive and supportive of students are much better positioned to absorb visa disruption and sustain enrolment.”

About the research findings

The survey sample was heavily weighted towards the US, with 149 universities from the US compared with 39 in Europe, 24 in the UK, 13 in Canada, 9 from Australia, and 9 from the Asia-Pacific region (excluding Australia). In all, about three-quarters of responding universities were in the Big Four. For this reason, the regional breakdowns in the survey report are especially valuable.

There was also a Global Enrolment Benchmark Survey wave in January to March 2025. While apples-to-apples comparisons between the early-2025 and early-2026 waves cannot be made because of the waves’ slightly different samples, broad trends are definitely apparent.

New undergraduate enrolments

As shown in Chart 1 below, 69% of Canadian institutions reported fewer undergraduate students in the January 2026 intake. Considered alongside the 82% that reported a drop in the Q1 2025 survey wave, this marks two years of severe contraction.

In Q1 2026, 62% of US universities welcomed fewer new undergraduate students, a greater proportion than the 48% reporting the same in Q1 2025. This suggests that recruitment challenges have intensified in the US over the past year.

The undergraduate enrolment situation in Australia and the UK appears less dire. Under half of Australian (44%) institutions reported a falloff, and just as many (44%) said they had welcomed more new international students. The picture was more balanced in the UK, with 42% saying commencements were down, 37% reporting stability, and 21% enrolling more new students.

Meanwhile, Asian and European institutions are faring very well. Fully 82% of Asian institutions saw more new undergraduate students in Q1 2026 than in Q1 2025, and none of them reported drops. In Europe, almost half (47%) of responding universities reported a year-over-year increase, which is nearly double the proportion reporting a decline (25%).

Graduate trends

As shown in Chart 2 (below), around two-thirds of Australian, British, and American universities reported lower international postgraduate commencements in January 2026. The 2026 trend is worse for British institutions than in 2025, when only half said commencements were down, but it is stable in the US.

Canadian institutions are grappling with further deterioration at the postgraduate level in 2026. Fully 8 in 10 (80%) institutions reported declines (up from 71% in Q1 2025), and none reported increases.

Meanwhile, over half of Asian universities (55%) reported postgraduate commencement gains, as did 43% of European institutions.

Significant differences in Q1 2025 and Q1 2026 survey results

Chart 3 (below) shows the difference in average reported commencements between Q1 2025 and Q1 2026. European and Asian institutions welcomed considerably more new students in Q1 2026, especially at the bachelor’s level. Masters’ commencements were down significantly in Australia. In Canada and the US, intakes at both levels worsened considerably. Canadian undergraduate programmes were particularly affected, while in the US, the most severe reduction was at the master’s level. While less pronounced than in North America, a downward trend is also evident in the UK at both levels.

The most pressing issues

An overwhelming majority of respondents in the Big Four cited restrictive policies as the biggest obstacle they face (Chart 4 below). The full Australian sample (100%) picked this option, as did 84% in both Canada and the US and 71% in the UK. Policies were also the top challenge in Europe, but only 59% chose this response option.

In Asia, the top three cited issues did not include policies at all. Instead, cost of study/living, English-proficiency requirements, and academic requirements were the main challenges for Asian institutions.

What lies ahead

More than 4 in 10 universities in Australia, Canada, and the UK are planning budget cuts in the next 12 months, with over a third saying the same in the US (Chart 5 below). Close to a quarter of institutions in Australia and Canada are also planning to cut staff.

The relatively supportive policy environments in which Asian and European institutions are recruiting are reflected in their plans. Fully 64% of Asian institutions have more aggressive enrolment goals, as do 31% in Europe. In Asia, more than half (55%) intend to use more AI in their operations, and 26% of European institutions do as well. The mindset is clearly one of growth, while Big Four universities have their hands full with managing tough policy contexts and associated budget and staff cuts.

Across the board, however, institutions see diversification as a necessity this year (the most cited sample-wide priority at 37%).

Sector resilience and top strategies

The top strategies being used by universities to boost international enrolments are highlighted in Chart 6, below. Introducing new programmes; diversifying/expanding geographically; executing strong branding/marketing; and offering financial incentives and scholarships were the most cited institution-led initiatives.

In addition, a notable proportion of universities reported that they had introduced January start dates to “manage visa unpredictability and to capture students who would otherwise defer or drop out of the cycle.” The report notes:

“One global recruitment calendar rarely works well for all markets. Understanding demand by origin country can help to prioritise marketing and recruitment activities. Certain countries show a notably stronger preference for the January to March intake than their peers elsewhere.”

Of the Q1 2026 findings, Dr Fanta Aw, Executive Director and CEO of NAFSA, commented: “Despite an increasingly uncertain policy environment, the survey shows that institutions willing to innovate and adapt can still create meaningful pathways for student success and access …. Institutions can and must exercise greater agency to counter serious external forces.”

The study report adds:

“The right response to a shifting landscape is not to wait it out. It is to understand it better and move faster. Student demand for international education remains strong. The institutions that will capture it are the ones that treat uncertainty not as a reason to pause, but as a reason to think differently.”

For additional background, please see:

• “From the Big Four to the Big Fourteen”
• “Canada and the US are losing international student enrolments to Europe and Asia”
• “The four key trends that will shape international student mobility for the next decade”

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Martijn is then joined by an expanded panel for a discussion on sustainable recruitment through a China-to-UK lens.

The panel includes Christina Ke, Managing Director of UOffer Global; Dave Amor, Founder and Director of Higher Insights; Jian Li, Deputy Director (Education) with the British Council; Cheryl Xu, Director of China Office for the University of Portsmouth; Kiran Patel, Senior Director Commercial and Deputy Head of China with The China-Britain Business Council; and Tony Lee, Chief Visionary Officer at ���Ϲ���.

The discussion occurs as the UK has solidified its position as the preferred study destination for Chinese students, recently overtaking the US on the strength of its strong higher education brand and the efficiency of its postgraduate models.

However, Chinese families are becoming increasingly results-oriented, prioritising employability and return on investment over rankings alone, while the UK government’s International Education Strategy has shifted the focus toward “sustainable” growth.

This creates a new landscape where value, student experience, and strict compliance are paramount, and our panel considers what this means for UK recruitment in China going forward.

You can listen right now in the player below, and we encourage you to subscribe via your favourite podcast app in order to receive future episodes automatically.

For additional background, please see:

• “���Ϲ��� Podcast: Are you using the right digital channels to reach international students?“

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The report’s introduction notes that “regions that were once seen primarily as sources of outbound demand are now positioning themselves as destinations in their own right.” We can see that in international education strategies, rising foreign enrolments, and growth targets in countries such as Japan and South Korea.

A key strength for Asia is that it now collectively offers 20,000 English-taught programmes (ETPs), which allows Asian institutions to:

• Attract demand from students who might otherwise be deterred by language barriers;
• Compete more effectively with the Big Four destinations.

In addition, Asia (1) hosts the most transnational campuses and partnerships of any region, and (2) now has almost 600 institutions in the major world university rankings.

Taken together, this means that Asia is highly competitive on many fronts, including:

• Proximity to key regional source markets;
• Expanding work rights;
• Lower tuition and living costs;
• Highly ranked institutions;
• English-language programmes.

As the report notes, these attractions are perfectly timed for “students who are increasingly weighing value-for-money, online/blended learning, and clear career pathways in their decision-making.”

It is not coincidental that as countries such as China, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and Malaysia gain Asian enrolments, Australia, Canada, the UK, and US are losing traction in many Asian markets. Top origin markets for Asian destinations include India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and several others.

Demand by level

Of Asian destinations, Japan and China are attracting most student interest, as demonstrated in Studyportals pageviews. Japan is the leader for master’s degrees, while Chinese bachelor’s programmes are rapidly gaining interest (+33% between 2023 and 2025). Vietnam has also gained share of student demand, up 101% for bachelor’s programmes. However, demand has weakened over the past couple of years for Singapore and South Korea.

Supply dynamics

Changes in supply on English-taught programmes (ETPs) can be signals of a destination’s ambition of becoming a study hub. For example, India expanded its supply of both bachelor’s (+54%) and master’s programmes (+53%) between 2023 and 2025. Its international enrolment target is 200,000 by 2030, up from just over 72,000 right now.

Other countries increasing their ETP supply include Singapore, Sri Lanka, and Brunei.

Important source markets

Across Asia, the most important sources of students for bachelor’s programmes include Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan, which the report says, “underscores the pull of regional proximity, affordability, and growing ETP availability across Asia.” At the master’s level, demand is most pronounced from India, but growth in demand is highest in Bangladesh and Pakistan.

Most popular programmes

As in other destinations, students are gravitating to STEM studies. Demand for these programmes offered in Asia outpaces supply. Other disciplines could stand to attract more students.

Regional perspective

The Studyportals/British Council report considers “Asia to be a consolidated destination, MENA as having policy-driven momentum, and Latin America having a more cautious trajectory.” These regions, as well as Europe, are increasingly on the radar of the world’s international students. The report concludes:

“This continuous recalibration is redrawing the map of international education and raising important questions about how institutions and governments can remain competitive.”

For additional information, please see:

• “Canada and India deepen educational ties; India repositions as an equal player in international education”
• “Inbound, outbound, and transnational: the landscape for international education in China continues to evolve”
• “Japan surpassed its foreign enrolment target of 400,000 in 2025”

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But agent use is rare in the ascending study abroad destination of Japan. The number of international students in the country increased by to 435,200 in 2025, up +8.2% over 2024. The jump was driven by a record number of student commencements, and it means that Japan has already surpassed its target of 400,000 international enrolments by 2033.

This growth inspired ���Ϲ��� to participate in a study on Global Agency Perspectives on Japan. ���Ϲ���’s Martijn van de Veen and Megumi Kawai co-authored the study with Shigetoshi Akamatsu, International Officer at Waseda University, and with Dr Hiroshi Ota, Professor at Hitotsubashi University as a senior advisor. The team gathered survey responses from more than 300 agencies from 68 countries through the first quarter of 2026 and found that 79% of responding agencies have never formally partnered with a Japanese university.

Unlike in the Big Four, there is a murkier understanding in Japan of what agents are and what they can do. Agents are often seen as “brokers” responsible for transactions rather than services – an understanding that would apply to a mere fraction of agents worldwide.

Dr Hiroshi Ota offers an important correction on this point:

“There is a persistent misconception in Japan that agencies are merely ‘brokers.’ In reality, professional, accredited agencies act as highly experienced education consultants that are essential for sustainable growth.”

An “indispensable” asset

A found that 92% of more than 500 colleges and universities surveyed across North America, Australia, and the UK consider agents “indispensable for recruiting international students.”

The Global Agency Perspectives on Japan survey illuminates why this is the case. Of the agents surveyed:

• 97% manage application and admission support;
• 95% provide students with initial counseling and career guidance;
• 92% handle visa and pre-departure briefings (one of the most complex hurdles for students entering Japan);
• 90% actively promote their partner schools and institutions on social media;
• 70% represent their universities at international student fairs.

These are all crucial components of moving prospective international students from awareness to enrolment.

Agents want to work with Japanese partners

The Global Agency Perspectives on Japan survey found great interest among agents to work with Japanese universities (a score of 4.4 out of a possible 5 for “very high” interest).

For Japanese higher education institutions, this strong demand on the part of agents provides potential access to an immediate global footprint that would otherwise take years to build.

When asked what they thought were main barriers that could prevent students from considering study in Japan, the consensus was lack of awareness about what Japan offers. Three-quarters (75%) cited “lack of awareness/brand recognition of Japanese universities,” and the same proportion cited a “perception that programmes are not taught in English.” More than half (52%) pointed to “lack of information and marketing materials from universities.” These three reasons were much more frequently mentioned than other concerns that are less solvable, such as competitiveness from other destinations (38%), limited post-study work opportunities (31%), and difficult visa procedures (29%).

Said one respondent, “The main reason [for not working with Japanese partners] is that we didn’t have enough information about Japanese universities, particularly the selection process for African students.”

“Our focus has previously been on other destination markets, and we are now preparing to expand into Japan,” said another.

Responding agents were also quick to point out Japan’s strengths as a study destination, noting especially Japan’s reputation for technology innovation, the quality of Japanese education, career opportunities for foreign graduates, and the relative affordability of study in Japan.

As one respondent said, “Japan’s biggest advantage isn’t just culture or technology – it’s that Japanese education is directly linked to real job opportunities in high-growth industries.” Another agent added that, “Japan’s single greatest selling point is its unmatched combination of world-class technology and engineering education and extremely affordable study and living costs compared to other top destinations.”

Why Japan is expanding and diversifying its international enrolment

While Japan’s aging population is a significant concern, the crisis facing higher education is even more acute: the number of 18-year-olds has already halved from its 1991 peak of 2.07 million to just 1.06 million in 2024.

With this demographic projected to fall to 0.88 million by 2040, Japan must attract international talent at an unprecedented scale – not just to fill classrooms, but to create a pipeline of skilled graduates who can join the local workforce and support the government’s broader economic goals.

Currently, Japanese universities are heavily reliant on China, Nepal, Vietnam, South Korea, and Myanmar. These five countries contribute nearly 80% of Japan’s international student body. To diversify beyond these markets and to attract top researchers from advanced economies, Japan needs prospective students to understand that there are:

• Many English-taught programmes offered by leading Japanese universities;
• Newly improved Japanese-language supports for foreign students and workers to better integrate them into society and the economy.

This is especially urgent given the increasingly competitive marketplace for international student recruitment and as Japan is now working hard to attract the world’s best students, alongside other top Asian competitors such as China, Malaysia, and South Korea.

For additional background, please see:

• “Japan surpassed its foreign enrolment target of 400,000 in 2025”
• “From the Big Four to the Big Fourteen“
• “Canada and the US are losing international student enrolments to Europe and Asia“
• “Asia ‘consolidating as the leading destination region’ for international students“

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The link between higher education enrolment and jobs

The number of students enrolled in India’s higher education system has more than tripled in the past 15 years to a Gross Enrolment Rate (GER) of 28%, and the government’s target is a GER of 50% by 2035. But the pace of enrolment growth is slowing, and it is doing so in tandem with a slowing of income gains for graduates since 2017.

The APU report offers some sobering statistics:

• Under 7% of graduates in India secure permanent salaried jobs within one year of graduation.
• Of those who do, less than 4% land white-collar positions.
• 40% of graduates aged 15–25 and 20% of those aged 25–29 are unemployed.
• Of the roughly 5 million graduates India produces each year, barely 2.8 million find jobs, with even fewer securing salaried work.
• While on average, graduates still make double the amount of money over the course of their lifetime than those without higher education, the pace of wage growth for them has slowed since 2017.
• The proportion of young men in school is declining – from 38% in 2017 to 34% in 2024.

Tenuous pathways from education to good jobs for women

Among poorer Indian families, the motivation to save precious income for university studies has always been to escape informal and/or poorly paid occupations in agriculture and construction. Between 2007 and 2017, the share of students from India’s poorest households enrolled in higher education rose from 8% to 17%, and while this happened, a growing number of new jobs were created outside of agriculture.

Still, nearly half of all work remains in the agricultural sector, and almost two-thirds of all Indian women working are employed in that sector. Many of them are the first in their family to hold a degree – and they invested in that degree precisely to get out of agricultural work.

A March 2026 article by the sums up the differing outcomes of segments of female graduates:

“At one end, a small but growing cohort of educated and skilled women is entering salaried roles in IT, automobile manufacturing, and business services. At the other, far larger end, most of the increase is in self-employment and unpaid or home-based work, often within households or family enterprises. This signals necessity rather than opportunity. The result is a statistical rise in participation that masks a qualitative divide: opportunity at the top, compulsion at the bottom.”

In March 2025, interviewed 27-year-old Geetanjali Devi, 27, who holds a bachelor’s degree in history. Now, Geetanjali works on her family’s rural farm in the state of Bihar near the border with Nepal. Her husband is not with her: “Like the majority of men in the village, he spends most of the year working construction in the southern state of Kerala, earning $8 a day more than 1,000 miles away.”

Men are also losing hope

Disappointing job prospects are dampening Indian men’s demand for higher education. APU’s study notes that in 2017, 58% of young men cited economic pressure as the reason for not continuing their studies. Only five years later in 2023, this proportion rose significantly to 72%.

Without a degree, more Indian men are turning to informal jobs to meet urgent household needs for cash. They cannot wait to see if the economic returns of higher education will pay off over the long term.

More industry linkages are needed

As reported in a January 2026 article, new survey results from India’s TeamLease EdTech, a provider of employability solutions and educational technology for higher education, show that “75% of higher education institutions in India are not adequately prepared to meet industry expectations.” Only 7% of the 1,000 representatives from wide swath of institutions surveyed said they were achieving placement rates above 75%.

According to the report, ‘”industry relevance is often treated as an add-on rather than a fundamental design principle,” resulting in graduates who emerge with “theoretical knowledge that lacks direct applicability in a modern workplace shaped by technology, automation, and evolving business models.”

There are, of course, high-quality institutions that do prioritise industry linkages, but wealthier students have a much better chance of (1) affording these and the higher-ROI courses such as engineering they offer, and (2) obtaining good jobs as a result of this and their social connections to those in power.

The national urgency

The APU report notes:

“India’s youth population, defined as those between the ages of 15 to 29, is the largest in the world. The 367 million people in this age group account for a third of the country’s working age population. The extent to which this large, increasingly educated and aspirational cohort is productively absorbed into the labour market will determine whether this massive, and continuing demographic dividend translates into an economic dividend.”

Much will depend on whether India can provide more linkages from education to good jobs for segments other than the wealthiest students. If not, the number of degree-holding women left on farms to manage subsistence agriculture will increase, and the number of men who trust higher education to increase their income prospects quickly, rather than over a lifetime, will decrease.

The urgency is real. The Washington Post reports: “Indians are now poorer than Hondurans on a per capita basis. More than half of those of working age are unable to find a place in the formal economy.”

For additional background, please see:

• “Is a university degree still the same passport to success?”
• “Canada and India deepen educational ties; India repositions as an equal player in international education”
• “The number of Indian students abroad fell in 2025”

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That combination of factors is pressuring the return on investment (ROI) calculations of prospective students, and encouraging them to consider alternate destinations outside of the Big Four (US, UK, Canada, Australia), and/or to stay in their home countries to study.

Those are the key findings of two recent surveys of prospective graduate management education (GME) students.

The first is from CarringtonCrisp. The latest edition of this long-running survey (which has operated on an annual cycle since 2009) gathers responses from 1,646 prospective students from 35 countries.

The 2026 survey finds that 31% of prospective students now plan to pursue an MBA outside their home country. That compares to the 35% who intended to do so last year, and the 39% who indicated their interest in study abroad two years ago. The overall pattern, at least within the CarringtonCrisp sample, is one of weakening demand for MBA study abroad over time.

“Getting a visa for study has become more difficult in many of the previously leading study destinations, but it has also become more difficult to get a post-study work visa, impacting the potential ROI of an MBA,” says the report.

Aside from those ROI projections for study abroad, the survey found that half of the respondents who said they would not go abroad to study felt that there were good quality business schools in their home countries. This reflects in part the rapid and continuing expansion of transnational education programmes in a number of major sending markets over the last two years, including China and India.

Those findings are reflected as well in a second study released just this week: the , which draws on a larger sample of 4,253 respondents from 145 countries.

“The direction of the future candidate pipeline is being reshaped by what, how, and increasingly where prospective students choose to study. When building new strategies, business schools should factor in the elasticity of evolving patterns in global student mobility as candidates explore a broader array of study destinations worldwide,” says GMAC CEO Joy Jones. “At the same time, candidates are becoming ever more disciplined in how they assess return on investment, challenging programs to demonstrate clear relevance and concrete outcomes. Insights from the GMAC Prospective Students Survey suggest that success in this environment will hinge on how effectively schools communicate measurable value and build trust with prospective students navigating an increasingly complex global landscape.”

Both studies cite the cost of GME study abroad as a major factor in student decision making. The GMAC survey highlights a declining in interest in study in the United States between 2024 and 2025, in favour of destinations in Europe and Asia. The report adds that, “Where prospective students choose to study is shaped by far more than academic preference. It reflects perceptions of opportunity, risk, affordability, career access, and broader social and political contexts.”

Of the declining interest in graduate business study in the United States in particular, GMAC says:

“Following the inauguration of President Donald Trump in January of 2025, non-US candidates have increasingly reported they are less likely to pursue GME in the United States under this government. Notably, a plurality of candidates are still neutral about the impact of this administration’s policies and practices on their study plans –��though decidedly less than the months immediately following President Trump’s inauguration, and especially compared to the months after we first added the question prior to the election in May of 2024. Announcements related to global tariffs, potential changes to the H1-B visa program, and other economic and immigration policies –��along with the informal chilling effects that accompany these formal policy positions –��have had ripple effects on the global economy and migration to the United States, resulting in non-US GME candidates increasingly wanting to study elsewhere.”

The GMAC report advises that recruitment teams adjust to this shifting student demand by:

• Creating region-specific messaging that “speaks directly to why studying in your country and institution delivers distinct academic, career, and lifestyle value.”

• Addressing mobility concerns directly and early, especially as they relate to visas, work authorisations, and career transitions after study.

• Rebalancing recruitment targets and yield strategies toward markets where demand is rising “rather than relying on historical sending markets.”

For additional background, please see:

• “From the Big Four to the Big Fourteen“
• “The changing face of international student mobility“
• “What students want: The top decision factors for study abroad“

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The op-ed is a study in rhetoric. It is well written and structured. It positions the government as supportive of the international education sector. And it is persuasive in asserting that there remains a need for policies that “boost integrity and crack down on dodgy practices …. to combat the exploitation of overseas students and address behaviours that seek to exploit the migration system.” No one in international education would take issue with those points.

Further, Mr Hill writes:

“Continuity in the form of policy stability is good for providers, students and Australia’s global market positioning in a chaotic world where competitors are lurching and rapidly changing settings …. we aim to maximise policy stability and minimise policy shocks.”

This is a fine idea. Except that the government’s international education policies have never been less stable than over the past two years.

Mr Hill calls out competitors for “lurching and rapidly changing settings,” yet Australia stands with Canada as outliers in terms of the scale and pace of government interventions in the international education sector. Rule changes – from visa fees to post-study work rights and more – are announced frequently and with little to no sectoral consultation or forewarning, leaving institutions scrambling to adjust, often with weeks or days to react.

An article in elaborates:

“For a sector like international education, predictability is not a luxury, it is foundational. Providers plan years in advance, setting recruitment targets, building offshore pipelines, investing in partnerships and staffing based on policy settings they expect to hold. When those settings shift rapidly or without clear forward guidance, the impact is immediate and far reaching. Agents lose confidence, students look elsewhere, and institutions are left recalibrating mid cycle. In this context, predictability is not about resisting reform, but about enabling it to land effectively. Without a stable and clearly signalled policy environment, even well-intentioned changes undermine the very outcomes they are designed to achieve. This is a message the government is reluctant to accept.”

Not targeted enough

The stated goal of the government’s policies is to curtail bad actors (i.e., unethical agents, institutions, and students who use study visas mainly or entirely to work/immigrate to Australia). The problems here are that:

• Their design is broadly punitive rather than targeted.
• They are not just dissuading non-genuine students from entering the country. They are also dampening demand from genuine students.

A notable drop in commencements; ELICOS and VET hard hit

The latest available data from reports:

“In the YTD December 2025, 846,321 international students studied in Australia, a -0.5% ��decline on the same period in 2024. The number of new students, studying in Australia in 2025 (202,882) declined by -15% on the same period in 2024.

The Higher Education sector still had growth in enrolments on the same period in 2024 (10%), followed by Schools (4%), while all other sectors showed declines, notably ELICOS (-35%).”

Those numbers tell the tale of a sector in which key segments are travelling in opposite directions. Lower student demand is especially notable in the English-language (ELICOS) and vocational education (VET) sectors.

Starting in mid-2023, the Australian government has hiked the application fee for a student visa three times, landing on the current cost of AU$2,000. With every increase, reputable English-language providers have lost significant numbers of students and have been disproportionately affected compared with universities.

This is because English-language programmes tend to be relatively short and less expensive than diplomas or degrees. For many prospective ELICOS students, the AU$2,000 (non-refundable) fee represents up to 40% of the total cost for a programme. For students from source countries with high visa refusal rates, the possibility of paying that much for a visa they may not receive is disheartening – and it often leads them to choose another destination.

The example of Colombia

Colombia is a good example of how fee increases and visa rejection rates are hitting the ELICOS sector. Colombia is currently the seventh largest market for international education, and one that is predominantly focused on English-language studies.

Since 2023, Colombian ELICOS enrolments and commencements have fallen by -63% and -96%, respectively. This coincides with:

• Refusal rates for Colombian ELICOS applicants rising from about 4% in 2022/23 to around 40% in 2024/25;
• Application fee increases in 2023, 2024, and 2025.

Data in the following chart suggests a correlation between fee increases and enrolments and commencements over three years.

Across all source markets, Colombian and otherwise, visa applications fell -39% for ELICOS programmes between 2024 and 2025. Vocational (VET) institutions have also been hit hard, with applications down by -35%.

The downstream effect for higher education

Colombian students mostly come to Australia for English-language or vocational studies; a relatively small proportion progresses to higher education. But other top ELICOS markets such as Thailand are also important for Australian universities, and many students begin in ELICOS then go on to higher education. If we look at 2024/25, .

Sticking with Thailand, Thai commencements in ELICOS began falling dramatically in 2024, as shown in the following chart.

The next chart depicts Thai commencements in higher education. In 2025, after three years of growth, the volume of these commencements fell. Part of the decline is due to the major drop in Thai commencements in ELICOS from 2023 to 2024 – which are just starting to affect numbers in higher education, as it takes anywhere from 6 to 24 months for the ELICOS–higher education pathway to show up in data.

A mixed performance

Much of the strategic direction Mr Hill articulates in his op-ed makes sense: furthering transnational education; matching international student profiles to skills gaps in the Australian economy; and considering international education beyond economic benefits.
��
He is absolutely right that “a stronger, more sustainable, and resilient international education sector that delivers more value for Australia, providing students with a top-quality education and welcoming experience, is something that everyone can be proud of.”

But this will not happen if policies continue to punish quality institutions as well as suspect ones, and continue to gut the ability of excellent ELICOS and VET institutions to draw sufficient enrolments. The international education sector’s health depends on a holistic understanding of its interconnections.

Of the industry response to the op-ed, The Koala News says:

“Across the many voices The Koala has spoken to, a consistent theme has emerged, people are feeling worn down, fatigued and increasingly dispirited …. [Mr Hill’s op-ed] is a signal to the sector that the settings of the past two years are not a phase, they are the foundation of a new policy era…The era of demand-driven international education in Australia is over. [Mr Hill’s statement] reaffirms the pedal is still on the gas for reform even though numbers appear to be moving in the government’s favoured direction.”

For additional background, please see:

• “Australia: Full-year data for 2025 reveals impact of AUD$2,000 study visa application fee on ELICOS sector”
• “Australia: With ELICOS under pressure, peak bodies push for reduction in ‘extortionate’ visa fees”
• “Australia: Visa rejection rates spike as some institutions withdraw admissions offers under new migration settings“

The post Australia: Latest enrolment data challenges the government’s assertion of stability for international education this year appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

Nearly three in four international students in Irish universities (74%) come from outside of the European Union. The three leading sending markets – India (20.6%), the United States (13.8%), and China (9.9%) – account for nearly half (44%) of all foreign enrolment in the sector. India and the US are driving the overall growth trend in Ireland, with Indian numbers jumping up 30% year-over-year in 2024/25, and US enrolments moving up 8% over the same period.

Reflecting the pattern we have observed in other major study destinations, Chinese enrolments in Ireland softened last year, easing -.3% from the year before.

The overall growth for 2024/25 was evenly split between undergraduate and post-graduate enrolments, which grew by 9% and 11% respectively. International enrolments in Ireland have historically been more weighted to undergraduate studies. In the years since the pandemic, however, that gap has narrowed and, as of last year, the foreign enrolment base in Ireland is almost perfectly balanced between undergraduates (22,825) and post-graduates (21,710).

Why do students choose Ireland?

A series of interviews conducted by in August 2025 provides a window into why international students choose to study in Ireland.

Some choose Ireland as an English-speaking alternative to the UK, post-Brexit. Others are drawn by the affordability of higher education in Ireland, and some for what they see as a more supportive and safe environment.

Speaking to The Times, Adetunji Adeleke, a doctoral student from Nigeria, said, “At the time, I was deciding between a PhD in the US or Ireland. A conversation with my prospective supervisor changed everything for me. I felt that my supervisor had the necessary skills to supervise my PhD and that she was very interested in my research proposal. I have read about many people dropping out a PhD because they had a bad supervisor, so her enthusiasm and skills swayed my decision.”

Kiran Singh, a master’s student from America, added that she chose to study in Ireland because it was “significantly more affordable compared to similar options in the United States”.

However, the students also shared important cautions regarding the linked issues of costs of living and availability of housing in Ireland, with one American student explaining that rents in Dublin were comparable to those in major American cities, such as Boston or New York.

For additional background, please see:

• “Irish higher education booked another strong year of foreign enrolment growth in 2024“
• “Irish ELT sector sounds note of ‘cautious stability’ for 2024“
• “What if there is no room? The link between student housing and enrolment capacity“

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