has just been released, and it gathers responses from 585 US colleges and universities over a period from 5 May through June 11. Collectively, the responding institutions host roughly half of the international students in the US.

The outlook for 2026/27

The survey highlights the following key trends for the coming academic year.

• Application volumes: 14% of responding institutions are reporting an increase in application volumes for 2026/27; 20% said that application volumes are roughly the same as the previous year; and 59% report a decrease in the number of applications.

• Projected enrolment: Nearly two in three respondents (63%) expect a decline in international student numbers for 2026/27; 26% predict stable enrolment year-over-year; and 11% forecast an increase in foreign enrolment.

Shifting demand from India looms as a major factor in the overall outlook for the year ahead. As IIE explains:

“At the country level, most reporting institutions indicate that international student applications either increased or remained stable across the majority of the 21 leading places of origin surveyed…The most pronounced decreases are reported for India, with only 39% of institutions indicating stable or increased application numbers. This is notable given that students from India made up nearly one-third (31%) of all international students in the United States in 2024/25.”

Contributing factors

Nearly all respondents (92%) cited visa processing issues (e.g., delays in processing or rising rejection rates) as the most significant factor affecting the enrolment outlook for this year. “Aligned with this concern,’ adds IIE, “64% of respondents noted an increase in questions and concerns from both current and prospective international students about the US political climate.”

The expanded travel ban and other travel restrictions were noted as an important factor by 80% of responding institutions. And the report notes as well that more than three in four respondents (77%) cited increased competition as a factor for 2026/27 with more students choosing to study in a destination other than the US.

“While this preliminary data suggests that enrollment numbers will decline in the 2026/27 academic year due to numerous factors,” concludes IIE, “it remains too early to determine the magnitude of potential declines.”

For additional background, please see:

• “US regulatory agenda for 2026 aims to end ‘duration of status’ and introduce Optional Practical Training and H-1B reforms“
• “What is happening to student mobility flows between the Global South and Global North?“
• “US visa processing centres in Africa to be reduced by more than half; only the latest barrier for African students“
• “Universities urged to focus on ‘factors they can control’ as policy settings depress international student enrolments in the Big Four“

The post Decline in Indian demand a major factor in softer outlook for foreign enrolment in US higher education in 2026/27 appeared first on şÚÁĎąŮÍř Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

Roughly 380,000 foreign students from nearly 200 countries were in China during the 2024/25 academic year, according to a senior Chinese education official quoted in the . While this is down from nearly 500,000 before the COVID-19 pandemic, it is a huge increase (+96%) from the 255,700 low in 2021. China closed its borders for longer than any other major study abroad destination or economy during the pandemic, opening up again only in January 2023.

This steady post-pandemic increase contrasts with the -20% drop in Chinese students abroad in 2025 (570,000) compared with 2019. There is also a rising trend of Chinese foreign-educated graduates returning home for studies (535,600 in 2025, suggesting about a 90% return rate).

Part of the plan

The uptick in international students in China is intentional. The 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–30) includes the prioritisation of the “Study in China” brand. Speaking with the China Daily in May, Wang Daquan, a Ministry of Education spokesperson, said, “We have confidence in that goal [of China becoming one of the world’s most attractive destinations for international students], and we will continue to make efforts to achieve it.”

Of China’s total foreign students in 2024/25, more than half (54%) were seeking a higher education degree. More of than a third (35%) of those degree students were in postgraduate programmes.

In terms of subject preference, more than a quarter (28%) were in engineering degrees.

Asian students dominate

The Ministry of Education reports that in 2024/25, Asian students made up the largest share of foreign enrolment at 61%, while African and European students accounted for about 16% each. Country-level figures have not been released, but top markets in recent years include South Korea, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Pakistan. Emerging markets that China invests heavily in developing are in Africa and Belt and Road countries in general.

Why the decline in outbound?

Nous Group principal Matt Durnin estimates that Chinese enrolments across Australia, Canada, the UK and US have fallen by approximately -13% since their peak in 2019/20. Posting on in late-2025, he wrote:

“There are a lot of factors driving the decline, but the one that I think deserves more attention is the rapid improvement of perceptions in the quality of Chinese universities.”

The 2026 QS rankings include 72 Chinese (mainland) institutions, compared with 192 in the US and 90 in the UK, putting China into third place globally. When Hong Kong universities are included, China moves into second place with a total of 99.

Another factor in weakening Chinese demand for study abroad is that the country’s disposable income growth has slowed, and consumers have become more cautious and price-sensitive. In May, consumer spending (measured in terms of retail sales) fell by -0.6% compared with May 2025 – the first year-on-year decline since the pandemic. Chinese consumers are using more of their income to pay off debt, and in a major departure from habits in the 2010s, they are becoming much more interested in discounted and second-hand goods.

Amid these consumer trends – and with so many high-quality Chinese and international universities close at hand – Chinese students have less reason to study abroad than in the 2020s.

The Chinese government wants to see the number of Chinese students enrolled in transnational education programmes to rise from 800,000 to eight million, and it is rapidly expanding international research collaborations, branch campuses, and joint programmes with foreign institutions.

For additional background, please see:

• “Inbound, outbound, and transnational: the landscape for international education in China continues to evolve”
• “China opens up to global STEM talent with new visa class”
• “China leverages higher education capacity with expanded TNE partnerships”
• “China: Two-thirds of new TNE partnerships are with countries outside the Big Four”

The post China in 2026: Slowing outbound student mobility, accelerating inbound momentum appeared first on şÚÁĎąŮÍř Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

Students in the region – and farther afield – are becoming aware of Azerbaijani universities’ strengths, especially in medicine, energy, and engineering, and of the relative affordability of tuition.

Azerbaijan’s other advantages include:

• Scholarships;
• Degree recognition across Europe under the Bologna Process and participation in Erasmus+;
• Proximity to Southeastern Europe and Central Asia, and not too far from North Africa, Pakistan, China, and India;
• Languages (Azerbaijani, which is closely related to Turkish; Russian, which has hundreds of millions of speakers across Eastern Europe, Central Asia and parts of Western Asia; and English, which is now a language of instruction in several universities, mostly private);
• Increasing importance as a middle power with ties to Europe, Russia, China, and the US.

The religious characteristics of Azerbaijan are also compelling to Muslim students. More than 90% of Azerbaijanis are Muslim (60/40 spilt between Shia and Sunni), but the state is secular. Citizens and visitors have freedom to practise – or not practise – any religion. A thriving minority population of Jewish Azerbaijanis clustered around the capital (and largest city) of Baku coexists peacefully with the Muslim majority.

While the country enrols a relatively small number of international students, there is solid – and government-endorsed – potential for more. In 2024/25, attended Azerbaijani universities, which represents year-over-year growth of +10% and five-year growth of +70%.

Geopolitical strengths

The world is becoming more multipolar, with power and influence diffused across the US; the European Union; and the BRICS+ (including China, India, Russia , and Brazil as well as six other countries in Africa and the Middle East). Countries that are able to manage multiple economic and diplomatic relationships across geopolitical divisions have a major advantage because they are not dependent on one ally or trading partner.

Azerbaijan is one of those countries. It was once part of Iran, then Russia, until it left the USSR in the 1990s and became independent. Despite rising tensions with Iran and Russia, it maintains diplomacy and trade with those countries. At the same time, Azerbaijan has formal “strategic partnerships” with the US, Türkiye, China, Italy, and Romania.

The US/Iran war and Western sanctions on Russia have elevated Azerbaijan’s importance to European allies because of its vast reserves of crude oil and natural gas. Italy is the top importer of these fossil fuels, but Azerbaijan also sends hundreds of thousands of tons to Romania, Czech Republic, Portugal, Germany, Croatia, Greece, Bulgaria, and Thailand. The main export route flows directly into Turkiye territory via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline.

As Azerbaijan’s , its ability to attract international students and forge educational partnerships with foreign universities increases.

Most students are from TĂĽrkiye, but demand is rising in South Asia

The following chart shows the top nationalities represented in Azerbaijani universities. Türkiye, by far Azerbaijan’s closest ally and defence parter, accounts for over a third of the overall international student population.

However, diversification is well underway,

South Asia is a new regional opportunity for Azerbaijan. For example, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka are the fastest-growing markets mainly due to intense student interest in affordable, World Health Organisation-approved (WHO) medical degrees, especially those offered by Azerbaijan Medical University. Medicine and health sciences programmes enrol more than a third of all international students in the country.

Institutions rising in the rankings

This year was historic for Azerbaijani’s education system: nine Azerbaijani universities made QS’s 2026 World University Rankings – six of them for the first time. India and Azerbaijan stand out (in a field of 106 countries) for having the highest number of universities enter the ranking for the first time.

Another first was Azerbaijan’s highest placing university, Baku State (BSU), having its petroleum engineering programme appear in QS’s top 100 subject rankings. BSU also had several other programmes in the top 500.

Across the higher education system, seven of the country’s universities were represented across 22 subject fields, with many improving their positions over 2025.

Affordability

International tuition fees vary across Azerbaijan’s over 50 public and private institutions, but most international students , and to budget for up to US$600 in living expenses. To get a study visa, they need to show proof of funds of at least US$5,000.

Private institutions offer more English-taught programmes, and these are priced higher (up to US$8,000).

Government support for internationalisation

The “State Strategy for the Development of Education in the Republic of Azerbaijan,” plan, launched in 2028, prioritises internationalisation. are:

• Establishing more dual-degree programs between Azerbaijani higher education and prestigious foreign institutions;
• Funding doctoral education abroad to build research-oriented academic staff for Azerbaijani universities.

Some of most prominent examples of internationalisation include “joint universities” overseen by the Ministry of Science and Education but launched through bilateral agreements with countries such as France, Italy, and Türkiye. Joint universities:

• Lead to qualifications recognised by both countries;
• Promote student and faculty exchanges and collaborative research – especially in engineering in energy (oil and gas) fields.

Azerbaijan’s joint universities include:

• (UFAZ) in Baku. This institution was founded in 2016 through collaboration between the Azerbaijan State Oil and Industry University (ASOIU) and the University of Strasbourg and University of Paris 1 PanthĂ©on-Sorbonne. UFAZ offers many courses, but specialisations are petroleum and chemical engineering.

• (ADA), whose campus opened in October 2025 in Baku, is a partnership with five Italian institutions: Luiss Guido Carli University, University of Bologna, Politecnico di Milano, Sapienza University of Rome, and University of Padua. Two main schools are design and architecture and agriculture and food sciences, but other programmes are also available.

• (TAU) in Baku specialises in education, health sciences, engineering, and informatics.

Scholarships

The government has launched a “” (SIA) portal to promote the country to international students as well as a major new five-year scholarship programme beginning in 2026/27: . This programme provides 100 students with full scholarships covering tuition fees, international flights, monthly allowance, medical insurance, and visa and registration fees. It is open to students from 100 countries.

There are also scholarships that promote two-way mobility, including the Hökumətlərarası Təqaüd Proqramları (intergovernmental) scholarships for Azerbaijani students wanting to study abroad and for foreign students wanting to pursue higher education in Azerbaijan. Scholarship recipients have their tuition and accommodation covered and a stipend for living expenses. Partner countries include China, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Latvia, Romania, and Russia.

Finally, participate in Erasmus+ and Germany’s DAAD exchange programmes.

Big ambition

In 2024, at an event called “Opportunities of International Education in Azerbaijan,” Deputy Minister of Science and Education Hasan Hasanli that Azerbaijan’s goal was to host 75,000 foreign students by 2026.

There is no indication that this target has been met, but growth of 70% over the past five years, new demand from Asia, and the rapid introduction of joint universities and programmes suggests that expansion of Azerbaijan’s international student population is well underway.

For additional background, please see:

• “Kazakhstan sets its sights on being a regional hub for international students”
• “What students want: The top decision factors for study abroad”
• “From the Big Four to the Big Fourteen”

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Needless to say, that is a minor difference, but it is notable all the same as it is the first decline in 20 years. “Although it is a slight decrease, it certainly indicates a break in the trend,” says Nuffic researcher Jonatan Weenink.

Within that overall trend, commencements dipped by -0.4%, driven largely by softer undergraduate numbers. Bachelor programme enrolments declined by -3.8% for universities and -2.9% for universities of applied sciences. However, enrolments in master’s programmes rose by +2.9% at universities and +8.4% at universities of applied sciences. Still, graduate-level growth is largely attributable to transfer students who were previously studying in the Netherlands.

Reflecting both on that transfer trend as well as the relatively longer-term stays of undergraduate students, Mr Weenink cautions: “The fact that intake for bachelor’s programs continues to decline likely indicates that the drop in total numbers will continue for some time. If you disregard those transfer students, there is also a decline in the university master’s. In the long term, therefore, the decline in the bachelor’s programme also carries over to the master’s.”

Indeed, we have been tracking a slowdown in undergraduate enrolments in the Netherlands over the last couple of years. The slowdown appears to be tied in part to more restrictive policies introduced by the Dutch government over the past few years, including a reduction in the number of English-taught degree programmes.

Notable shifts in sending markets

Among non-European markets, China stands as an important contributor to the weaker enrolment trend in 2025/26. Chinese commencements dropped by -27.5%, which also moved the country, for the first time, out of the top five sending markets for the Netherlands. “A possible explanation for this is the rising position of Chinese universities in international rankings, making students more inclined to study in their own country,” says Mr Weenink.

As in other leading destinations, the impact of fewer Chinese students was mitigated by an increase (+16.5%) in new master’s enrolments from India.

Germany has traditionally been the largest sending market for Dutch higher education, and that remains true in 2025/26. But here, too, we see a declining trend: the number of German commencements dropped by -8.9% in 2025/26. Nuffic notes that German enrolments in psychology studies have been particularly affected by new requirements for clinical master’s programmes in the field that have been in place in Germany since 2020.

For additional background, please see:

• “The Netherlands: Foreign enrolment slowdown driven by declining undergraduate numbers“
• “Dutch government walks back controversial measures to constrain English-taught degrees“
• “The Netherlands: Debate around student recruitment and retention continues amid foreign enrolment decline“

The post Netherlands reports first-ever decrease in foreign enrolment for 2025/26 appeared first on şÚÁĎąŮÍř Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

It is no coincidence that the Key Five are all emerging countries in the Global South, where large proportions of students are open to emigrating, temporarily or permanently, because of limited local opportunities. This makes immigration officials tend to question whether study visa applicants are genuine students – i.e., interested in quality education, a high-skilled job, and remaining compliant with visa conditions – or individuals with little intent to study and great intent to migrate in any way they can. Unfortunately, many genuine students from the Global South are disadvantaged in their applications because of where they are from.

The impact of the visa rejection trend for students from emerging economies in Asia and Africa could be enormous across the global international education landscape – and beyond. Already, it is spurring fewer visa grants, reduced recruiting in high-risk markets, and more withdrawals from students eager to avoid a rejection on their student profile. Not surprisingly, commencements are trending down in leading study destinations, and this will pressure overall enrolments in the years ahead.

In this article, we will look at Key Five origin countries with regards to:

• Their importance to overall enrolments across the Big Four;
• Recent study visa rejection rates;
• Commencement trends (i.e., the volume of new students provided a study visa allowing them to enrol in a Big Four education institution).

Contribution to overall international student numbers

According to the most recent available enrolment data, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Nigeria, and Pakistan compose anywhere from 30% to 40%+ of the entire international student body in Big Four destinations.

Visa rejection rates for the Key Five

Having looked at the huge presence of Key Five students in the total international student populations of the Big Four, we’ll turn to recent visa refusal trends (where official data are available).

Bangladesh: Nearly three-quarters (73%) of Bangladeshi applicants for US F-1 visas were turned away in 2025. Bangladeshi students have in recent years been very likely to receive a visa for Australia (about a 5% rejection rate in 2024/25), but in February 2026, more than half (51%) of offshore applicants from Bangladesh were refused.

India: Indian students, who represent either the #1 or #2 source market across the Big Four, are now quite likely to be refused a study visa in those destinations. Rejection rates were 61% in the US (2025), 80% in Canada (Q2 2025), and 60% in Australia (February 2026). While only 7.5% were denied a sponsored study visa in the UK in Q4 2025–Q1 2026, this this was up from less than 4% in winter 2024/25.

Nepal: More than 8 in 10 (81%) Nepali applicants were rejected for a US F-1 visa in 2025, and in February 2026, the Australian study visa rejection rate for Nepal soared to 65%. Interestingly, Nepali students were more likely to be approved for a UK sponsored study visa in winter 2025/26 than in winter 2024/25, bucking the general trend for emerging markets (see chart below).

Nigeria: Since December 2025, Nigerians have been included in an expanded travel ban announced by the US administration, along with dozens of other countries (mostly in Africa and Asia). In the UK, sponsored study rejections for Nigerian students used to be rare (less than 5%), but in winter 2025/26, 20% of Nigerian applicants were turned away. In Canada, between 70–80% were refused a study permit in in 2025.

Pakistan: More than 70% of Pakistanis were refused an F-1 visa in the US in 2026, and more than 6 in 10 offshore applicants from Pakistan were denied an Australian study visa in February 2026. Like Nigerians, Pakistani students applying for a sponsored study visa in the UK saw their rejection rate spike massively in winter 2025/26: increasing from 5.6% to 41% year-over-year.

These rejection rates for Key Five countries represent an absolutely huge number of potential students turned away.

What is happening to commencements?

Key Five commencements (new student entrants) are falling across the Big Four, with less than a handful of exceptions.
 
A striking example is F-1 visa issuances in the US in July/August of 2024 compared with July/August 2025. The percentages in the table below are based on our analysis of data from the US Department of State. It bears mentioning that in September of 2025 (not shown in the table), F-1 commencements fell further for Bangladesh (-69%), Nepal (-96%), Nigeria (-33%), and Pakistan (-9%) compared with September 2024.

In the UK, the following chart from HESA shows the dramatic drop-off in Indian (turquoise) and Nigerian (navy blue) commencements between 2023/24 and 2024/25: -13% and -33%, respectively. Over the span of two years (2022/23 to 2024/25), the declines were even more serious: -33% for India (126,580 to 94,955) and -132% for Nigeria (53,790 to 23,160).

In Canada, new student arrivals (from all nationalities) fell from 208,750 in 2024 to 115,120 in 2025. In January to April 2026 compared with the same period in 2025, arrivals were down -73% to about 200,000. There is no publicly available government information for specific markets, but the Times of India reports that between January and August 2025, Canada issued just 9,955 new study permits to Indian students.

In Australia, overall commencements fell by about -15% between 2024 and 2025, but this decline was concentrated in sectors other than higher education (the number of new international students in Australian universities edged up slightly in that time period). There was more of a mixed bag of commencement trends for the Key Five than in Canada, the UK, and US. Between 2024 and 2025, Indian and Pakistani commencements fell by -3.5% and -33%, respectively, while Nepal was up +33.5% and Bangladesh +33%.

The implications will stretch beyond international education

Our Key Five markets – Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Nigeria, and Pakistan – can be viewed as roughly representative of what is happening to mobility influences and flows between the Global South and Big Four destinations. They serve to show how immigration policies (and/or policy effects) in the Big Four are affecting demand from top non-EU markets. These policies, especially if they stretch on in time, could lead to:

• An intensification of existing challenges for the operations of hundreds of universities, colleges, and schools across the Big Four. Those institutions are often highly reliant on international student tuition amid declining domestic enrolments and/or public funding. Chinese commencements (which, for decades, were an important source of overall growth) are falling, and emerging markets in Asia and Africa have helped to mitigate the impact.

• Alternative destinations gaining a greater share of the world’s internationally mobile students (this is already happening – see From the Big Four to the Big Fourteen for background).



• A decline in the economic contribution of international education in the Big Four.



• A weakening of innovation and productivity in Big Four economies. India, in particular, contributes a large volume of STEM students and workers to Western nations.



• An erosion of the soft power of the Big Four in the Global South.

Methodological note

Data analyses are based on statistics from:

• The Australian
• (IRCC)
• The UK’s (HESA)
• The in the US

For additional information, please see:

• “UK: International student numbers fall for second year, especially in postgraduate programmes“
• “UK: Sponsored study visa issuances down, rejection rates up, and more“
• “There are more international students in the US than ever in 2025, but commencements are declining“
• “Visa rejections climb in the US for international students from key markets including India“
• “New international student permit approvals for Canada fell below COVID levels in 2025“
• “Australia: Multiple data indicators signal further declines ahead for international student numbers“
• “Australia: Latest enrolment data challenges the government’s assertion of stability for international education this year“

The post What is happening to student mobility flows between the Global South and Global North?  appeared first on şÚÁĎąŮÍř Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

These trends are highlighted in results from the most recent by NAFSA, Oxford Test of English, and Studyportals. The survey asked respondents from over 254 universities across 36 countries about new international enrolments in the January–March 2026 intake; perceived barriers to enrolling students; and recruitment strategies.

The research found that universities in the Big Four are struggling with policy-induced enrolment pressures, but it also revealed that they are adapting recruitment strategies for their current context. Edwin van Rest, CEO of Studyportals, commented: “Universities that are agile, proactive and supportive of students are much better positioned to absorb visa disruption and sustain enrolment.”

About the research findings

The survey sample was heavily weighted towards the US, with 149 universities from the US compared with 39 in Europe, 24 in the UK, 13 in Canada, 9 from Australia, and 9 from the Asia-Pacific region (excluding Australia). In all, about three-quarters of responding universities were in the Big Four. For this reason, the regional breakdowns in the survey report are especially valuable.

There was also a Global Enrolment Benchmark Survey wave in January to March 2025. While apples-to-apples comparisons between the early-2025 and early-2026 waves cannot be made because of the waves’ slightly different samples, broad trends are definitely apparent.

New undergraduate enrolments

As shown in Chart 1 below, 69% of Canadian institutions reported fewer undergraduate students in the January 2026 intake. Considered alongside the 82% that reported a drop in the Q1 2025 survey wave, this marks two years of severe contraction.

In Q1 2026, 62% of US universities welcomed fewer new undergraduate students, a greater proportion than the 48% reporting the same in Q1 2025. This suggests that recruitment challenges have intensified in the US over the past year.

The undergraduate enrolment situation in Australia and the UK appears less dire. Under half of Australian (44%) institutions reported a falloff, and just as many (44%) said they had welcomed more new international students. The picture was more balanced in the UK, with 42% saying commencements were down, 37% reporting stability, and 21% enrolling more new students.

Meanwhile, Asian and European institutions are faring very well. Fully 82% of Asian institutions saw more new undergraduate students in Q1 2026 than in Q1 2025, and none of them reported drops. In Europe, almost half (47%) of responding universities reported a year-over-year increase, which is nearly double the proportion reporting a decline (25%).

Graduate trends

As shown in Chart 2 (below), around two-thirds of Australian, British, and American universities reported lower international postgraduate commencements in January 2026. The 2026 trend is worse for British institutions than in 2025, when only half said commencements were down, but it is stable in the US.

Canadian institutions are grappling with further deterioration at the postgraduate level in 2026. Fully 8 in 10 (80%) institutions reported declines (up from 71% in Q1 2025), and none reported increases.

Meanwhile, over half of Asian universities (55%) reported postgraduate commencement gains, as did 43% of European institutions.

Significant differences in Q1 2025 and Q1 2026 survey results

Chart 3 (below) shows the difference in average reported commencements between Q1 2025 and Q1 2026. European and Asian institutions welcomed considerably more new students in Q1 2026, especially at the bachelor’s level. Masters’ commencements were down significantly in Australia. In Canada and the US, intakes at both levels worsened considerably. Canadian undergraduate programmes were particularly affected, while in the US, the most severe reduction was at the master’s level. While less pronounced than in North America, a downward trend is also evident in the UK at both levels.

The most pressing issues

An overwhelming majority of respondents in the Big Four cited restrictive policies as the biggest obstacle they face (Chart 4 below). The full Australian sample (100%) picked this option, as did 84% in both Canada and the US and 71% in the UK. Policies were also the top challenge in Europe, but only 59% chose this response option.

In Asia, the top three cited issues did not include policies at all. Instead, cost of study/living, English-proficiency requirements, and academic requirements were the main challenges for Asian institutions.

What lies ahead

More than 4 in 10 universities in Australia, Canada, and the UK are planning budget cuts in the next 12 months, with over a third saying the same in the US (Chart 5 below). Close to a quarter of institutions in Australia and Canada are also planning to cut staff.

The relatively supportive policy environments in which Asian and European institutions are recruiting are reflected in their plans. Fully 64% of Asian institutions have more aggressive enrolment goals, as do 31% in Europe. In Asia, more than half (55%) intend to use more AI in their operations, and 26% of European institutions do as well. The mindset is clearly one of growth, while Big Four universities have their hands full with managing tough policy contexts and associated budget and staff cuts.

Across the board, however, institutions see diversification as a necessity this year (the most cited sample-wide priority at 37%).

Sector resilience and top strategies

The top strategies being used by universities to boost international enrolments are highlighted in Chart 6, below. Introducing new programmes; diversifying/expanding geographically; executing strong branding/marketing; and offering financial incentives and scholarships were the most cited institution-led initiatives.

In addition, a notable proportion of universities reported that they had introduced January start dates to “manage visa unpredictability and to capture students who would otherwise defer or drop out of the cycle.” The report notes:

“One global recruitment calendar rarely works well for all markets. Understanding demand by origin country can help to prioritise marketing and recruitment activities. Certain countries show a notably stronger preference for the January to March intake than their peers elsewhere.”

Of the Q1 2026 findings, Dr Fanta Aw, Executive Director and CEO of NAFSA, commented: “Despite an increasingly uncertain policy environment, the survey shows that institutions willing to innovate and adapt can still create meaningful pathways for student success and access …. Institutions can and must exercise greater agency to counter serious external forces.”

The study report adds:

“The right response to a shifting landscape is not to wait it out. It is to understand it better and move faster. Student demand for international education remains strong. The institutions that will capture it are the ones that treat uncertainty not as a reason to pause, but as a reason to think differently.”

For additional background, please see:

• “From the Big Four to the Big Fourteen”
• “Canada and the US are losing international student enrolments to Europe and Asia”
• “The four key trends that will shape international student mobility for the next decade”

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Martijn is then joined by an expanded panel for a discussion on sustainable recruitment through a China-to-UK lens.

The panel includes Christina Ke, Managing Director of UOffer Global; Dave Amor, Founder and Director of Higher Insights; Jian Li, Deputy Director (Education) with the British Council; Cheryl Xu, Director of China Office for the University of Portsmouth; Kiran Patel, Senior Director Commercial and Deputy Head of China with The China-Britain Business Council; and Tony Lee, Chief Visionary Officer at şÚÁĎąŮÍř.

The discussion occurs as the UK has solidified its position as the preferred study destination for Chinese students, recently overtaking the US on the strength of its strong higher education brand and the efficiency of its postgraduate models.

However, Chinese families are becoming increasingly results-oriented, prioritising employability and return on investment over rankings alone, while the UK government’s International Education Strategy has shifted the focus toward “sustainable” growth.

This creates a new landscape where value, student experience, and strict compliance are paramount, and our panel considers what this means for UK recruitment in China going forward.

You can listen right now in the player below, and we encourage you to subscribe via your favourite podcast app in order to receive future episodes automatically.

For additional background, please see:

• “şÚÁĎąŮÍř Podcast: Are you using the right digital channels to reach international students?“

The post şÚÁĎąŮÍř Podcast: Sustainable international student recruitment from a UK-China perspective appeared first on şÚÁĎąŮÍř Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

The report’s introduction notes that “regions that were once seen primarily as sources of outbound demand are now positioning themselves as destinations in their own right.” We can see that in international education strategies, rising foreign enrolments, and growth targets in countries such as Japan and South Korea.

A key strength for Asia is that it now collectively offers 20,000 English-taught programmes (ETPs), which allows Asian institutions to:

• Attract demand from students who might otherwise be deterred by language barriers;
• Compete more effectively with the Big Four destinations.

In addition, Asia (1) hosts the most transnational campuses and partnerships of any region, and (2) now has almost 600 institutions in the major world university rankings.

Taken together, this means that Asia is highly competitive on many fronts, including:

• Proximity to key regional source markets;
• Expanding work rights;
• Lower tuition and living costs;
• Highly ranked institutions;
• English-language programmes.

As the report notes, these attractions are perfectly timed for “students who are increasingly weighing value-for-money, online/blended learning, and clear career pathways in their decision-making.”

It is not coincidental that as countries such as China, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and Malaysia gain Asian enrolments, Australia, Canada, the UK, and US are losing traction in many Asian markets. Top origin markets for Asian destinations include India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and several others.

Demand by level

Of Asian destinations, Japan and China are attracting most student interest, as demonstrated in Studyportals pageviews. Japan is the leader for master’s degrees, while Chinese bachelor’s programmes are rapidly gaining interest (+33% between 2023 and 2025). Vietnam has also gained share of student demand, up 101% for bachelor’s programmes. However, demand has weakened over the past couple of years for Singapore and South Korea.

Supply dynamics

Changes in supply on English-taught programmes (ETPs) can be signals of a destination’s ambition of becoming a study hub. For example, India expanded its supply of both bachelor’s (+54%) and master’s programmes (+53%) between 2023 and 2025. Its international enrolment target is 200,000 by 2030, up from just over 72,000 right now.

Other countries increasing their ETP supply include Singapore, Sri Lanka, and Brunei.

Important source markets

Across Asia, the most important sources of students for bachelor’s programmes include Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan, which the report says, “underscores the pull of regional proximity, affordability, and growing ETP availability across Asia.” At the master’s level, demand is most pronounced from India, but growth in demand is highest in Bangladesh and Pakistan.

Most popular programmes

As in other destinations, students are gravitating to STEM studies. Demand for these programmes offered in Asia outpaces supply. Other disciplines could stand to attract more students.

Regional perspective

The Studyportals/British Council report considers “Asia to be a consolidated destination, MENA as having policy-driven momentum, and Latin America having a more cautious trajectory.” These regions, as well as Europe, are increasingly on the radar of the world’s international students. The report concludes:

“This continuous recalibration is redrawing the map of international education and raising important questions about how institutions and governments can remain competitive.”

For additional information, please see:

• “Canada and India deepen educational ties; India repositions as an equal player in international education”
• “Inbound, outbound, and transnational: the landscape for international education in China continues to evolve”
• “Japan surpassed its foreign enrolment target of 400,000 in 2025”

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