That combination of factors is pressuring the return on investment (ROI) calculations of prospective students, and encouraging them to consider alternate destinations outside of the Big Four (US, UK, Canada, Australia), and/or to stay in their home countries to study.

Those are the key findings of two recent surveys of prospective graduate management education (GME) students.

The first is from CarringtonCrisp. The latest edition of this long-running survey (which has operated on an annual cycle since 2009) gathers responses from 1,646 prospective students from 35 countries.

The 2026 survey finds that 31% of prospective students now plan to pursue an MBA outside their home country. That compares to the 35% who intended to do so last year, and the 39% who indicated their interest in study abroad two years ago. The overall pattern, at least within the CarringtonCrisp sample, is one of weakening demand for MBA study abroad over time.

“Getting a visa for study has become more difficult in many of the previously leading study destinations, but it has also become more difficult to get a post-study work visa, impacting the potential ROI of an MBA,” says the report.

Aside from those ROI projections for study abroad, the survey found that half of the respondents who said they would not go abroad to study felt that there were good quality business schools in their home countries. This reflects in part the rapid and continuing expansion of transnational education programmes in a number of major sending markets over the last two years, including China and India.

Those findings are reflected as well in a second study released just this week: the , which draws on a larger sample of 4,253 respondents from 145 countries.

“The direction of the future candidate pipeline is being reshaped by what, how, and increasingly where prospective students choose to study. When building new strategies, business schools should factor in the elasticity of evolving patterns in global student mobility as candidates explore a broader array of study destinations worldwide,” says GMAC CEO Joy Jones. “At the same time, candidates are becoming ever more disciplined in how they assess return on investment, challenging programs to demonstrate clear relevance and concrete outcomes. Insights from the GMAC Prospective Students Survey suggest that success in this environment will hinge on how effectively schools communicate measurable value and build trust with prospective students navigating an increasingly complex global landscape.”

Both studies cite the cost of GME study abroad as a major factor in student decision making. The GMAC survey highlights a declining in interest in study in the United States between 2024 and 2025, in favour of destinations in Europe and Asia. The report adds that, “Where prospective students choose to study is shaped by far more than academic preference. It reflects perceptions of opportunity, risk, affordability, career access, and broader social and political contexts.”

Of the declining interest in graduate business study in the United States in particular, GMAC says:

“Following the inauguration of President Donald Trump in January of 2025, non-US candidates have increasingly reported they are less likely to pursue GME in the United States under this government. Notably, a plurality of candidates are still neutral about the impact of this administration’s policies and practices on their study plans – though decidedly less than the months immediately following President Trump’s inauguration, and especially compared to the months after we first added the question prior to the election in May of 2024. Announcements related to global tariffs, potential changes to the H1-B visa program, and other economic and immigration policies – along with the informal chilling effects that accompany these formal policy positions – have had ripple effects on the global economy and migration to the United States, resulting in non-US GME candidates increasingly wanting to study elsewhere.”

The GMAC report advises that recruitment teams adjust to this shifting student demand by:

• Creating region-specific messaging that “speaks directly to why studying in your country and institution delivers distinct academic, career, and lifestyle value.”

• Addressing mobility concerns directly and early, especially as they relate to visas, work authorisations, and career transitions after study.

• Rebalancing recruitment targets and yield strategies toward markets where demand is rising “rather than relying on historical sending markets.”

For additional background, please see:

• “From the Big Four to the Big Fourteen“
• “The changing face of international student mobility“
• “What students want: The top decision factors for study abroad“

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The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is bearing the brunt of Iran’s retaliation because of its close Western ties. The region’s most important education hub and the world’s second-largest host of foreign/joint campuses after China, UAE is currently a country where schools and universities have been told to close until further notice and deliver classes online – out of an “abundance of caution.”

In less than a fortnight, Iranian strikes in the region have at times stranded international students and tourists trying to secure flights home; led prospective students who planned to study there to change their plans; and rattled institutions considering or already operating branch campuses in Dubai and elsewhere.

A spotlight on the risks of TNE

The past two years have witnessed a spike in interest among Western and Asian universities in transnational delivery modes such as branch campuses, joint programmes, articulation agreements, etc. New interest is particularly high in countries where government policies are affecting students’ ability to get a visa or to afford the costs of studying. Higher entry barriers for students have cut deeply into new international enrolments in Australia, Canada, and the US, prompting more universities in those countries to begin or extend programme delivery overseas.

But as interesting as transnational education opportunities can be, they also come with significant risks, and these are being highlighted by the growing footprint of this war. Some foreign universities operating branch campuses in UAE and other Gulf States – or considering doing so – are reassessing their plans because of concerns about staff safety, insurance, and margin for losses and disruption.

Speaking to about numerous Canadian institutions operating in UAE that have been caught up in the chaos, David Robinson, executive director of the Canadian Association of University Teachers, said:

“Clearly, the current conflict shows the risks facing universities in the region. There was always the danger of conflict that many institutions ignored. The illusion that the Gulf States were safe havens for Canadian and other foreign educational ventures has been shattered.”&�Բ�����; 

John Trudinger, a headteacher at a school in Dubai whose staff includes 100 Britons, told :  “The shine has definitely been taken off. ” He said that his British staff were “deeply traumatised and really struggling to cope” with the war and that they have left and won’t return.

Ambitions on hold

The war has also cast a pall on Middle Eastern states’ ambitions to attract foreign educator investment and international students to the region. Maia Chankseliani, professor of comparative and international education at the University of Oxford, told :

“Regional escalation is already raising the cost and complexity of internationalization for Gulf universities. It will prompt some partners to pause new campus commitments, intensify risk planning and make the higher education ambitions embedded in…national strategies more difficult to deliver on current timelines. There will be financial and reputational repercussions that outlast the immediate crisis, as in recent decades the Gulf states have positioned themselves deliberately as a serious site for higher education expansion, attracting branch campuses, research partnerships and internationally mobile students.”

A break in momentum

The Middle East – especially UAE – has been growing ever more popular among international students. Keystone Education Group reported that search volumes for the region were up +90% between March and June 2025, with the UAE accounting for about two-thirds of that surge.

India is by far the top market for universities and schools in the Gulf states, sending hundreds of thousands of students. According to agents interviewed last week by India’s , there is significant concern among Indian families about sending their children there. Sanjay Laul, founder of the recruitment platform MSM Unify, said: “About one-third of our applicants requested contingency discussions – deferrals, alternate intakes, or secondary destination options.”

Adarsh Khandelwal, the co-founder & director of Collegify, said that much will depend on timing. He predicted “a timing shock – deferrals, remote starts, and rerouting” rather than a “Canada-style volume shock.”

However, Studyportals reports that at the start of March, search traffic on its sites for study in Gulf countries was down -43% from the pre-conflict peak, and that the decline is ongoing.

Volatility continues

For international students, agents, and educators, the war is yet one more example of the challenging environment for making decisions about study plans or business strategies over the past couple of years.

The opportunities of transnational education and alternative destinations grew more compelling as immigration regimes tightened in the Big Four. But the current crisis reminds us that safety never goes away as the top concern for families considering study abroad. It also serves to illustrate the significant risk of operating a school or university in another country without always knowing if student and staff safety is as secure as it is at home.

Speaking with , higher education consultant Vincenzo Raimo noted that tensions in the Middle East tend to subside quickly once a deescalation process is agreed to, and that international educators are now very adept at pivoting in the face of disruption. Mr Raimo says the most likely lasting consequence of the Iran war in terms of transnational education activity is that there will be a slower rush to the gate among universities contemplating a new venture:

“[Any conflict] will mean greater board-level scrutiny, with leaders and governors seeking firmer assurance on scenario planning, duty of care for staff and students, and the implications for insurance, security costs, and reputation of perceptions of safety deteriorate.”

For additional background, please see:

• “Student mobility in MENA boosted by foreign partnerships and branch campuses”
• “Recruiting in the Emirates: Big goals, world-class education, and new scholarships”
• “UK transnational education enrolments poised to surpass onshore students this decade”&�Բ�����;

The post As Iran retaliates across the Middle East, schools close, students worry, and institutions reassess transnational education appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

India, like China, has cultivated an eclectic mix of political and economic alliances across multiple regions. It is as likely to partner with the US as with Russia, and it works closely with France, Germany, Japan, and Australia on joint goals in the spheres of military, technology, and trade. In 2026, India has renewed ties with Canada under Prime Minister Mark Carney after a years-long diplomatic rift.

Higher education has become another area of strength: the number of top-ranked Indian higher education institutions is growing. In the 2026 QS world ranking, 54 Indian institutions were featured. This is five times as many as in 2015.

For all these reasons – as well as US President Trump’s dismantling of the post-WWII world order of alliances – India is an increasingly coveted trade and education partner. It is now negotiating from a very different position than it has historically: a position of strength, as an equal partner.

This is nowhere more evident than in international education. India is no longer just a source of students for the Big Four (Australia, Canada, UK, and US) – it is ever more a country with which the Big Four partner under mutually beneficial terms.

This reality is well illustrated by the warming India-Canada relationship in 2026.

The Canada–India Talent and Innovation Strategy

In February 2026, representatives from 20 top Canadian institutions travelled to India to explore partnerships centred on common areas of interest and specialisation with Indian counterparts. There, the was launched by Universities Canada and Colleges and Institutes Canada (CICan). Notably, Prime Minister Carney as well as Foreign Minister Anita Anand were present in Mumbai for the official launch, signalling the importance of the Strategy to Canada.

Out of that event alone, 13 new MOUs were signed (see ). Collectively, the MOUs cover student and faculty exchanges; joint academic programming; dual credentials; embedded work experience; post-study progressions into jobs; research collaboration including potential TNE arrangements and STEM projects such as clean energy and AI; and pathways from Indian programmes to Canadian programmes.

The collaborative approach signalled by the new Strategy is more than evident in the statements prepared by Minister Anand and Universities Canada President Gabriel Miller. Count the number of times “partner” or “partnership” appear in their quotes:

Minister Anand: “Canada and India are natural partners in education, innovation and research. Canada welcomes the new Canada–India Talent and Innovation Strategy that will create opportunities for students and researchers, drive economic growth, and reinforce the strong people-to-people ties that connect our two countries.”

Mr Miller: “This is a new chapter in a very important relationship, and it demands a new partnership on higher education and research, which is vital to the future of both our countries. We are building the foundations of a long-term partnership that will create good jobs, better incomes and communities that can thrive in a highly competitive global economy.”

An invitation to ambassadors

Also in February, Indian Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan addressed the Study in India Edu-Diplomatic Conclave 2026 in New Delhi. In attendance were ambassadors, high commissioners, and diplomats from over 50 countries. With Indian officials, participants discussed strengthening international cooperation in higher education.

As per an article in The Hindustan Times: “[Minister Pradhan] called upon the Excellencies to collaborate with India’s fast-growing, innovation-driven, multidisciplinary and access-friendly education system.”

Minister Pradhan told the assembly that “Indian institutions are deepening global engagement through joint, dual and twinning programmes, while premier universities are expanding their international footprint.” He made particular mention of the Global South and distanced it from its colonialist interpretation: “From artificial intelligence, biotechnology and semiconductors to sustainable energy, India is emerging as a trusted innovation partner, advancing a Global South model rooted in collaboration, capacity-building and shared knowledge.”

The foreign diplomats were told that India’s previously unstructured and unregulated environment for branch campuses has been replaced with “a transparent and time-bound regulatory framework” that has seen top institutions in Australia, Italy, the UK, and the US cleared within a month.

A redefinition of India

Canada’s flurry of education and research agreements with India are but an example of momentum in the Big Four to move from a purely recruitment-focused model – i.e., enrolling Indian students at home – to a partnership model. In recent months, the UK, Spain, and Australia have all sent similar delegations to build new partnerships in India.

The shift happens as:

• The number of Indian students studying abroad in 2025 fell by -5.7% compared with 2024, according to India’s Ministry of External Affairs;
• The number of first-time Indian students in UK institutions fell -12% in 2024/25, the second year of decline;
• In Australia, Indian commencements were down -8% in January–September 2025;
• In the first half of 2025, Canada granted 9,995 study permits to Indian students – down from 76,930 in the same period in 2024 and 149,875 in 2023;
• In the US, F-1 visas issued to Indian students fell by -44% in the first half of 2025 versus the first half of 2024.

For additional background, please see:

• “The number of Indian students abroad fell in 2025“
• “The UK is quickly expanding its TNE footprint in India”

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As a result, the government is pursuing international research collaborations, opening branch campuses, and establishing joint programmes with foreign institutions as much as it is trying to attract more students to study in China. A new goal is to see 8 million Chinese students enrolled in transnational education programmes (TNE); the current number is 800,000. No timeline has been specified, but China tends to achieve targets with exceptional speed.

China’s attraction for international students

The number of Chinese universities placing in ranking systems such as Times Higher Education (THE), QS, and Shanghai (also known as the Academic Ranking of World Universities, or ARWU) continues to rise. In 2025, 108 Chinese institutions made ARWU’s top 500, just behind the 111 American institutions in that tier. This was a +10% year-over-year rise for China, compared to +2% for the US. Over the past decade, the pattern is even more striking, as shown in the following chart from Higher Education Strategy Associates. In this chart showing the changed position of 9 countries over 10 years, only Australia joined China in improved performance over time, and that was minimal. The US was the country with the greatest contraction in the ARWU rankings from 2015–25.

There is a similar 10-year contrast between the number of Chinese and US institutions placing in the top 500 on : China is way up with fewer US institutions ranked.

Ascent up the rankings is a major draw for international students considering China for study abroad, but there are also other benefits. Among them are ample scholarships offered by the Chinese government (especially at the postgraduate level) as well as relatively low tuition fees and costs of living. At the 2024 Forum on China-Africa Cooperation Summit, for example, China announced 60,000 new scholarships for African students.

What’s more, for students from over 100 Belt and Road (BRI) countries, the presence of Chinese companies in their home region offers opportunities for post-study employment. Over the past decade, Chinese companies have created millions of jobs in Africa, and China is the continent’s top trading partner.

The extensive range of the Belt and Road initiative – stretching across Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America and the Caribbean – has also fuelled the diversity of nationalities on Chinese campuses. : “No one nationality is over-represented among China’s international cohorts – an aim many institutions globally are attempting to replicate.”

QS expects international enrolments in China to increase by +2.5% annually till 2030 to about 550,000 – a lower growth rate than European countries as well as New Zealand, Malaysia, South Korea, and Vietnam, but a greater expansion than in the US, Australia, and Canada. Any growth will be thanks in no small part to China’s growing supply of English-taught programmes (ETPs). There are now as many ETPs in China as in many leading European destinations (close to 3,000), especially in STEM programmes and at the postgraduate level.

Language and cultural barriers an issue

The diversity of international students in Chinese universities is impressive, but QS notes that there is a downside: “[It] cushions against single-market volatility but also complicates recruitment strategies and programme design.” With top nationalities including Thailand, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, and Russia – and growing numbers of African students – it is not a simple task to support all students in terms of language and cultural integration.

Integration can also be complicated because international students are often housed in separate, more well-equipped student residences than domestic students – another point of tension for Chinese families. Vietnamese study abroad consultancy notes:

“Rooms are usually more spacious, fully equipped with private bathrooms/showers, air conditioning, mini-fridges, and even balconies. Compared to dormitories for Chinese students (often 4-6 person rooms, shared bathrooms, no or limited air conditioning), the conditions for international students are clearly prioritised.”

Growing resistance to inbound student mobility

Continuing a pattern that can be observed in other major study destinations, there is mounting frustration among some segments of the Chinese public about growing numbers of foreign students in in the country, especially against a backdrop of persistently high youth unemployment rates.

That frustration is in large part driven by intense competition for well-paid jobs in the country. In published by the University of Oxford, authors Wen Wen and Die Hu pointed out that:

“China is a non-immigrant nation with a surplus of domestic college graduates … its ability to absorb foreign graduates into the labour force is low and the legal limitations for foreign students to stay are valid.”

Since that paper’s publication, China launched the K Visa in 2025 in a bid to attract more STEM researchers to the country. Those eligible for the K Visa do not need a job offer from a Chinese employer, and the visa offers considerably more flexibility regarding entry frequency, validity period, and duration of stay than other Chinese visas.

The K Visa was launched the same year that China’s graduating class numbered 12.2 million, up more than +4% over 2024 and the largest increase ever. When the new visa was announced, voicing upset, some of them xenophobic. Canada’s newspaper interviewed Zheng Yifan, a 33-year-old tech worker from Chengdu, who said:

“I feel this visa doesn’t sound wise, and many in my industry share similar views. This whole thing leaves a bitter taste in the mouths of people like me who have climbed the ladder through sheer effort. China doesn’t lack talented people – we just lack job opportunities and resources.”

Similarly, Jakky Yang, a 27-year-old investment adviser in Shenzhen, said: “The fundamental reason many people like me oppose this visa is because our own domestic needs still need to be addressed. Many people in China are caught in a cutthroat competition, struggling to survive, while foreigners can easily access the benefits we have to fight so hard for.”

“Pretending to work”

If anything suggests just how dire many Chinese youth feel about their job prospects, it is the “pretending to work” phenomenon, which dovetails with the “lying flat” trend. Essentially:

• “Lying flat” describes Chinese youth who have simply stopped looking for jobs due to dismay over limited opportunities, choosing instead to stay at home, adopt a minimalist lifestyle, and sometimes be paid to take care of ageing parents or household chores.

• “Pretending to work” is a nationwide trend in which jobless young people pay a company for office space. One example is the aptly branded Pretend To Work Company in Dongguan, which asks for US$5 a day in return for access to an equipped office where clients socialise and/or conduct job searches. In 2025, the interviewed Pretend To Work Company clients, who reported feeling less alone and less pressured by anxious parents in their rented office space.

Both “lying flat” and “pretending to work” are stark illustrations of the tension between the needs of the Chinese economy and the needs of Chinese students and workers facing barriers to landing good jobs in that economy.

Students returning in greater numbers

The situation becomes even more complicated because of the huge numbers of foreign-educated Chinese students returning home. About 495,000 students returned after studying abroad in 2024, nearly 20% more than in 2025, according to the Chinese Ministry of Education. The influx is partly fuelled by unfavourable visa and political climates in some host countries. The numbers have become so large that the government has set up an online job search and start-up assistance platform just for returnees. It has done so in partnership with 50 organisations to add a talent-matching component to the service – particularly in the fields of AI and advanced materials.

As with international students, there is some resentment around the influx, as domestic students and workers worry returnees will take all the most desirable jobs. The reality is more complicated.

Ba Ran, a vice president at the online recruiting firm Liepin Group, told China’s that the swell of returnees has reduced the scarcity premium of a foreign degree. He noted: “The rise of Chinese tech giants has created a demand for locally trained talent with a strong grasp of the domestic market, an area where freshly returned graduates can be at a disadvantage.” Over the past seven years, recruitment platform Zhaopin has seen a drop in Chinese job listings asking for overseas-educated talent.

While returnees with highly specialised STEM skills continue to fare well in the labour market, those with less remarkable credentials are commanding lower salaries in the past. Ba Ran says that HR departments “are no longer dazzled by an overseas degree … now they are more focused on concrete skills and a willingness to work diligently.”

Beyond inbound

Clearly, and as in so many other countries, there are limits to how many international students and researchers China can host without jeopardising social harmony. Jobs are a hot-button issue, and many a country can trace civic unrest or even revolution to perceived injustice around who can and cannot access good job opportunities.

The Chinese government seems to have foreseen this breaking point by investing heavily in transnational education (TNE). There are now more than 1,000 Chinese-foreign joint ventures or international branch campuses (IBCs) in various regions, including China. In fact, China’s “education blueprint” explicitly states a goal of attracting foreign science and engineering universities to set up shop in China. Hongqing Yang, chief executive of the Educationist Group, a Hong-Kong based consultancy, told Times Higher Education: “China seeks to cultivate talent domestically by opening up to foreign universities, especially as it faces challenges in sending its students abroad for education, particularly STEM education.”

Evolving approach

In the first 20 years of this century, the Chinese government invested heavily in the capacity and quality of China’s higher education system even as millions of Chinese students continued to go abroad. Three factors are fuelling a further evolution of China’s approach going forward:

1. China’s emerging superpower status, massive investments in research, and well-cultivated alliances and agreements with countries all over the world now allow its universities to partner equally with top foreign universities, which is a new source of innovation.
   
   
2. More restrictive visa regimes in the Big Four study destinations, tensions with the US, and a lower premium for foreign-earned degrees are prompting Chinese families to question the return on investment of study abroad.
   
   
3. The public mood suggests that there are limits to the social licence for attracting more international students to China (a development we have seen in Canada, Australia, the UK, and the US to various extents).

The UK has always been the leader in transnational education provision. In 2026, it faces far more competition in this area. Institutions in other destinations are rushing to set up branch campuses and joint programmes – often in response to government policies limiting their recruitment of students to home campuses. China is at the forefront of this race. The Chinese Ministry of Education approved a record 285 new joint education institutes and programmes at the degree level in 2025. There are now 1,589 active TNE partnerships involving China and another country.

As QS noted in its Global Flows report, China is steadily “positioning its universities as more credible partners in shaping the future of global education.”

For more information, please see:

• “China: Two-thirds of new TNE partnerships are with countries outside the Big Four”
• “China opens up to global STEM talent with new visa class”
• “Market snapshot: International student recruitment in China today”
• “Youth unemployment reaches record high in China”

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Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s first official visit to India in October 2025 included a major focus on expanding educational ties between the two countries, and it followed his recent approval of Lancaster University and University of Surrey setting up branch campuses in India. Prime Minister Starmer said:

“More Indian students will be able to benefit from a world-class British education, strengthening the ties between our two countries while pumping millions back into our economy.”

Other UK universities with branch campuses in India include Aberdeen, Bristol, Coventry, Southampton, Liverpool, Queens University Belfast, and York. Including Lancaster and Surrey, all UK universities operating or approved for branch campuses in India are in the 2026 QS top 600 rankings, and more than half of these are in the top 200. Those rankings illustrate the calibre of education now available to Indian students through UK branch campuses in their country.

High-level agreements support the UK’s transnational expansion

The UK has always been the world leader in delivering transnational education, but it is cementing its position by capitalising on India’s 2020 decision to allow branch campuses to operate in the country and a new bilateral agreement called India-UK Vision 2025. This agreement sets the stage for the two countries to partner in areas including trade, transnational education, technology and research, green energy, and defence and security.

For the UK, expanding its footprint in India will serve to generate millions more in export revenue and to extend its soft power in Asia. For India, UK branch campuses will help to solve its supply-demand problem with higher education capacity. By 2035, India is expected to need 70 million places in higher education for its students. Educational partnerships with the UK will also help India to develop its economy, global competitiveness, and participation in cutting-edge research initiatives.

Mitigating risk

The Starmer government’s strong support of transnational education recognises the risk accompanying tighter immigration and compliance settings that make it more challenging for UK universities to recruit overseas.

There were 732,285 international students in UK higher education in 2023/24, representing a modest dip (-4%) from the year before, according to the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA). Not coincidentally, the former UK government announced that dependants of most international students would no longer be able to come to the UK on a visa in June 2023. That policy came into effect in January 2024.

More changes that will also likely depress demand are imminent, including the reduction of the Graduate Route timeframe from 24 months to 18 months in 2027 for undergraduate and master’s students.

The transnational educational footprint of the UK, meanwhile, is growing so quickly that transnational enrolments are expected to surpass onshore international enrolments in the years ahead. In its report on the scale of UK transnational education released this fall, Universities UK noted:

“From 2022/23 to 2023/24, the UK … saw +7.8% growth in UK HE TNE students. If the same growth/reduction rates were to continue for another academic year, the number of UK HE TNE students would overtake onshore international student recruitment to the UK in 2024/25.”

It seems clear that the Starmer government is keen to increase the share of transnational income in the total export revenues provided by international students. Of the £32 billion (US$42.5 billion) of revenue generated by international students in 2022, almost £1 billion came from branch campuses. The government’s goal is to see 2022’s income rise to £50 billion. Given that the strategy is to reduce net migration – including by limiting international student numbers in the UK – it follows that transnational education is meant to become a much bigger segment of total income derived by international students.

The UK government has said of its branch campus push: “Deeper engagement with India offers a sustainable funding stream for UK higher education institutions, bolstering their financial resilience.”

Third-party activity

It is no easy feat to set up branch campuses, not least because of complex regulatory and infrastructure rules in host countries, India included. This offers an opportunity for third-party companies to step in and set up structures that enable universities to open branch campuses without the headache of compliance and other rules.

One such company is UK-based , which currently operates in 15 countries including India. The company has already invested £25 million in India and plans to add another £200 million in the next three years. So far, GEDU has three campuses in India, with the largest being its campus in GIFT City in Gujarat. Queen’s University Belfast has j and Coventry and University of Surrey are scheduled to open in 2026 or 2027.

GEDU’s new investment will fund its planned GEDU Global Education City near Delhi, which is meant to begin enrolling its first students in 2027/28.

How do other major destinations measure up in India?

Australia currently has two operational branch campuses in India, both in GIFT City. Four other Australian universities have been approved to set up campuses over the next couple of years. The US has none, but the Illinois Institute of Technology has been approved to open in 2026. One Italian and one Malaysian institution have been approved. Canada has none.

Writing on the recently, Dr David Pilsbury, chief development officer at Oxford International Education Group, said:

“TNE is moving from the periphery to centre stage in higher education … What was once a niche activity has become a strategic imperative for universities and nations alike. The UK must urgently shift focus away from just students coming to the UK, to a more universal approach that embraces TNE in all its forms. If we fail to seize the opportunity now, the UK risks losing its chance to remain an international leader in this field – a chance that, arguably, will not come again.”

Suffice to say, the UK is not sleeping on this opportunity.

For additional background, please see:

• “UK transnational education enrolments poised to surpass onshore students this decade“
• “China leverages higher education capacity with expanded TNE partnerships“
• “UK transnational education expands at fastest rate ever“

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Universities UK released its latest report on today and it finds that there were 653,570 students enrolled in UK TNE programming in 2023/24. “The number of UK HE TNE students now compares closely to the number of onshore international students recruited to the UK,” says the report. “From 2022/23 to 2023/24, the UK … saw +7.8% growth in UK HE TNE students. If the same growth/reduction rates were to continue for another academic year, the number of UK HE TNE students would overtake onshore international student recruitment to the UK in 2024/25.”

As that trend suggests, the scale of the TNE opportunity is massive. Less than 3% of the world’s higher education students are internationally mobile. Standing behind them are millions more with a strong drive to access foreign credentials and high-quality provision.

The shape of UK TNE

As we see in the following charts, UK TNE provision skews towards undergraduate students, although both undergraduate and graduate enrolments have seen steady growth over the past decade. And it also is heavily weighted to in-person delivery, as opposed to remote or distance education.

As of 2023/24, 43% of UK TNE students were enrolled in collaborative provision programmes (that is, programmes delivered with a partner institution or organisation). Another quarter were registered at a partner institution abroad, and a similar proportion were studying in distance education. Only about 7% were studying at a branch campus overseas.

Universities UK adds: “Over the past five years, since 2019/20, the most significant
growth has been in the number of UK HE TNE students registered at an overseas partner organisation (+72.5% increase), and those studying via collaborative provision (+58.0% increase).”

Where are the students?

Asia is home to more than half of UK TNE students (just over 51% as of 2023/24), with much of the balance distributed across Europe (18%), the Middle East (14%), and Africa (11%).

Asia is driving the five-year growth trend, as we see in the figure below, but the Middle East is showing notable gains as well. In percentage terms, the Middle East was the fastest growing region (58%) from 2019/20 to 2023/24.

Taking up centre stage

Writing on the recently, Dr David Pilsbury, chief development officer at Oxford International Education Group, said, “TNE is moving from the periphery to centre stage in higher education … What was once a niche activity has become a strategic imperative for universities and nations alike.”

He adds, “There are many drivers behind the momentum for change. The UK must urgently shift focus away from just students coming to the UK, to a more universal approach that embraces TNE in all its forms. If we fail to seize the opportunity now, the UK risks losing its chance to remain an international leader in this field – a chance that, arguably, will not come again.”

For additional background, please see:

• “China leverages higher education capacity with expanded TNE partnerships“
• “Global survey highlights new phase of internationalisation: From a ‘market era’ to a ‘managed era’“
• “UK transnational education expands at fastest rate ever“

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Meanwhile, a record 13.42 million students sat the national college entrance exam this year (the gaokao). The Ministry of Education does not release official figures on the number of first-year seats available but the most optimistic estimates place that capacity at least several million seats below the population of high school leavers in 2025. In other words, when the admissions music stops, there will millions of students without a chair in an undergraduate programme.

The Chinese government has launched a number of initiatives to expand the system further, and to improve graduate outcomes in the face of historically high levels of youth unemployment.

As recently reported, “Since 2024, China has been undertaking one of the most significant expansions in recent history of its undergraduate education system. Leading universities are increasing student enrolment and launching new interdisciplinary programmes to align with national strategic priorities…The nationwide expansion of undergraduate enrolment aligns closely with China’s broader policy objectives as outlined in the Education Powerhouse Construction Plan (2024–2035), jointly issued by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council.”

At the same time, the Chinese government is quickly ramping up job readiness training and other supports for new graduates, and expanding subsidies for employers to hire graduates as well.

8 million in TNE

In addition to that domestic expansion, China’s Ministry of Education has also set a target to expand enrolment in transnational education programmes (TNE) from an estimated 800,000 students currently to 8 million. There is no publicly stated time horizon for that goal, but qualified observers have noted that an expansion of that scale is a long-term proposition and likely something with at least a 10-year horizon.

TNE may take many forms but the term refers broadly to an educational programme delivered in a country other than the country in which the institution awarding the qualification is based. In China, it is carefully regulated under the Ministry of Education and framed as “Chinese-Foreign Cooperation” in education, reflecting that such programmes are built around genuine and equitable collaborations between Chinese and foreign partners.

A further report from expands on the point: “The Chinese Ministry of Education stipulates clear processes and procedures for the TNE application process as well as delivery. It typically takes a project one or two years just to get the ministry application completed and approved.

But it is worth the investment and commitment because approval means practically guaranteed student recruitment in terms of numbers and quality…It also means TNE programmes will be part of the national gaokao quota system. Currently, most of the top universities in China have an enrolment rate of less than 1% of their application pool.”

As that summary outlines, there is a well-established, centrally controlled mechanism for approving and monitoring TNE programmes in China through the Ministry of Education. And in practice the Ministry approves (or cancels) TNE partnerships in the country on an ongoing basis.

But after a few quiet years in terms of new approvals, it is notable to see China moving forward with a much larger number of new TNE partnerships this year. In May 2025, in what was the first major round of project approvals since 2022, the Ministry announced 113 new TNE partnerships, roughly two-thirds of which were individually approved joint programmes and the remaining third taking the form of joint institutes offering programmes in multiple subjects and/or at various levels of study.

Writing on at the time, Charles Sun, Founder and Managing Director of China Education International, said, “These approvals signal more than academic growth—they represent a strategic alignment with China’s national priorities. Programmes in AI, green technology, and smart manufacturing mirror the country’s ambition to lead in Fourth Industrial Revolution sectors. Additionally, partnerships like Hainan University and New Zealand’s Massey University in Animal Science emphasize region-specific expertise, catering to Hainan’s evolving role as a free trade port and ecological hub…For students, these programmes offer dual degrees, English-taught curricula, and industry-aligned training, equipping graduates with the cross-cultural fluency and technical skills demanded by multinational employers.”

More recently, the Ministry of Education approved another 46 TNE partnerships in September 2025, this time with 16 joint institutes (offering multiple programmes) and another 30 joint programmes. They include a new Smart Health College in Jiangsu to be established by Nanjing University of Chinese Medicine and the University of Otago (New Zealand), and a new Master’s in Electronic Information offered by Zhongyuan University of Technology in Henan and the University of Sao Paulo (Brazil).

As those examples suggest, the other notable pattern in this year’s approvals is that the Ministry is reaching beyond the major English-speaking countries – such as the UK or the US – to engage institutions in a much wider field of partner nations, including Italy, Malaysia, New Zealand, France, Germany, and South Korea.

Similarly, this year’s TNE approvals are distributed across dozens of Chinese provinces in an apparent bid to boost internationalisation more widely throughout the country.

For additional background, please see:

• “China opens up to global STEM talent with new visa class“
• “What impact will a slowing economy have on Chinese demand for study abroad?“
• “Global survey highlights new phase of internationalisation: From a ‘market era’ to a ‘managed era’“

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The last time Western institutions faced such severe pressures was during the COVID-19 pandemic. Then, closed borders and quarantine requirements drastically reduced international student mobility. Now, shifting public opinion in the West concerning immigration levels is at the root of governmental efforts to curb foreign enrolments.

The dynamics of international education have once again become complicated. Both institutions and prospective students are thinking very carefully about which courses of action are prudent in the new context in 2025.

Findings from a among 200 senior operational and strategic leaders primarily employed by universities in Australia, the United Kingdom, and Canada illustrate the strain of the current policy and economic environment. For example, over 8 in 10 respondents (82%) said that their internationalisation goals are being increasingly affected by government policy decisions.

At the same time, respondents indicated a continued commitment to international student recruitment: almost 9 in 10 (88%) said that foreign student recruitment is very important (22%) or extremely important (66%) to their overall internationalisation strategy. This is down somewhat from 2022, the first iteration of the Nous/Navitas survey, but still much ahead of international partnerships, transnational education (TNE), and online education, as shown in the following screenshot from the survey report

Summing up the current recruitment context, the Nous/Navitas report calls the operating environment today a “managed era” – in contrast to the “market era” before and directly after the COVID-19 pandemic.

Intense competition expected due to interconnected factors

As shown in the following screenshot, surveyed respondents pointed to a range of challenges they are facing in 2025, including macroeconomic conditions, anti-immigrant sentiment, and geo-political tensions.

Nine in ten (89%) respondents to the survey said it will be “very” or “extremely” competitive in the next couple of years to recruit students to programmes because of these pressures. Expectations of heightened competition are especially high in Canada and the UK, as shown in the following screenshot.

Nous Principal Matt Durnin said:

“Pressure to compete while reducing costs will lead to new approaches to internationalisation going forward. There will be a portion of the sector that reduces its dependence on international, while others will find opportunities within the constraints of this managed era.”

Interest in TNE rises, but barriers are high

Amidst greater barriers to recruiting students to foreign campuses, survey participants indicated increasing interest in transnational education (TNE) including bilateral exchange and academic partnerships, joint degrees, and branch campuses. At the same time, this interest exceeded university executives’ faith that they could currently execute TNE as well as they might like to. Mr Durnin said:

“There is a lot of focus on transnational education; however, the findings show that leaders are uncertain about their ability to execute successfully. It won’t be a quick fix for revenue.”

Transnational education arrangements often take months – or years – to solidify and are subject to a host of regulatory issues. They entail a substantial investment, and they take a long time to generate ROI. Writing in the in June 2024, veteran international education consultant Tracy Harris made these points about TNE:

“From my experience, untapped potential [in TNE markets] simply doesn’t exist in any kind of volume, and even fewer opportunities can provide the return on investment that make the effort involved in establishing and delivering TNE worthwhile.

Therefore, if the intention of the government is for education and training providers to replace lost revenue from onshore international students, then TNE is not the solution. However, it does provide an opportunity for Australian education and training providers to enhance their brand reputation and recognition internationally.”

Long-term thinking is great, but short-term needs are acute

Given the long timeframe needed for successful TNE partnerships – and the acute revenue challenges many universities have right now – universities are looking for ways to survive the current climate and constraints. Many are facing both increased regulatory pressures/visa processing issues as well as low levels of state funding.

Not surprisingly, the survey findings show a natural focus on revenue generation and cost-cutting where possible. Increasing international student revenue rose as a “very important” priority from 50% in 2022 to 66% in 2024. In contrast, increasing international student volumes moved from 29% “very important” in 2022 to 17% in 2024.

Increased fees, reduced scholarships are common predictions

More than half of those surveyed expect their universities to increase international student tuition fees over the next 12 to 24 months by 4–5%. An expectation of significant fee increases was clearly evident in Canada and Australia. The reverse was true in the UK, as shown in the screenshot below.

Many universities will also be reducing their scholarship offerings. This trend intensifies among the top 100 universities, where 40% of respondents anticipated reducing their scholarship programmes for international students. Only 20% expected to be more generous.

Looking ahead

The current international education landscape is difficult, but as some respondents noted, opportunities remain. “Despite the recent negative policy changes, there is an immense amount of opportunity in our international portfolio.” Another noted: “[Higher] education is a stalwart endeavour, and there will always be a need to offer courses and degree programs to a global audience.”

That said, the shift from the “market era” to the “managed era” may not be short-lived. Navitas Chief Insights Officer, Jon Chew, said:

“Beyond the financial pressures in the immediate term, university leaders must contend with the possibility that the shift from the market era to the managed era will continue to deliver greater levels of government intervention and control, which will in turn have important implications for strategic planning.”

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