However, that recovery was short-lived. Presenting at the NAFSA conference in Orlando in late-May, Julie Baer, the deputy director of research, evaluation and learning at the Institute of International Education (IIE), shared that both enrolments and weeks decreased in 2025 compared to the year before.

The table below shows that there were 66,033 IEP students in 2025 compared with 69,705 in 2024. Student weeks fell from 768,883 to 709,705.

The nearly -8% drop in student weeks coincides with a decline in the average stay of IEP students, from 11.1 weeks in 2024 to 10.7 in 2025. This is the second-lowest average stay in eight years of tracking.

The current trend in the US is not unique – recent data show that many major English-language training destinations are seeing lower ELT enrolments and/or student weeks in 2025.

Major declines in top markets

The number of students from Japan fell by -22.8% in 2025 compared with 2024. Japan’s representation in the total number of IEP students in the US also fell to 12.5% in 2025 compared with 15.5% in 2024. As we reported recently, increasing English-language provision in Japan is depressing demand for travel for this purpose among Japanese students.

Other key markets also sent fewer students: China (-20.7%), Brazil (-22.6%), Colombia (-29.5%), and Germany (-25.5%).

There have been pronounced shifts in leading markets for IEP providers over the past few years. For example, in 2025, the top 5 markets were:

1. Japan
2. France
3. Italy
4. China
5. Brazil

In 2024, by contrast,

1. Japan
2. China
3. Brazil
4. France
5. Italy

In fact, only three markets in the top 10 posted gains in 2025, and two of them (France and Italy) were European. All Asian markets were down other than Vietnam, as were the important leading Latin American markets of Brazil and Colombia.

For additional background, please see:

• “UK ELT reports challenging enrolment trends continued through last quarter of 2025”
• “Canada’s language training sector reinvents pathway programme model in response to policy settings”
• “Australia: Full-year data for 2025 reveals impact of AUD$2,000 study visa application fee on ELICOS sector”

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The order dictates that “no applications may be made to the National VET Regulator under section 9 of the Act until after the day 12 months after the day this instrument commences.” The order is in immediate effect and it means that the Australian Skills Quality Authority (ASQA) will not accept applications from new providers or for new courses for a 12-month period beginning 19 May 2026.

The order specifically prevents any new applications for registration in the Commonwealth Register of Institutions and Courses for Overseas Students (CRICOS). CRICOS is Australia’s official government register of education providers and courses that are approved to enrol international students. And The Education Services for Overseas Students (ESOS) Act 2000 requires that any Australian institution enrolling visa-holding foreign students must be registered on CRICOS.

The 18 May order applies to private vocational education and training (VET) providers as well as those in the English Language Intensive Courses for Overseas Students (ELICOS) sector. Public providers, including TAFEs and public universities, are exempt.

In other words, during the year-long freeze, no new private VET or ELICOS providers may be established, nor may existing private-sector providers establish any new courses.

A background brief accompanying the assistant minister’s order explains that there are two exceptions:

“The Suspension will not apply to applications made by any existing provider that relate to adding:

• a location for a course the provider is already registered on CRICOS to deliver
• a course identified as superseded (non-equivalent) on the National Register (www.training.gov.au), where the provider is already registered to deliver the superseded (non-equivalent) course.”

An accompanying statement from Mr Hill says that the freeze is necessary to “provide ASQA with additional time to address sector integrity issues while processing existing applications with a focus on rigour, scrutiny, and integrity.”

The assistant minister draws a direct line in his comments from the order to two substantive government reviews of Australia’s immigration system – the Rapid Review into the Exploitation of Australia’s Visa System (the Nixon Review) and the Migration Review in 2023 – which identified “significant integrity concerns within Australia’s international education system, particularly in the vocational education and training (VET) sector.”

“Suspending new registrations to teach international students VET or English language onshore is not a decision taken lightly and will allow the Government to address integrity concerns about new market entrants and oversaturation in the international VET and ELICOS sectors,” added the Assistant Minister. “Frankly, it raises suspicions when at the same time student numbers in these parts of the sector are moderating the regulator continues to see a rush of new market entrants.”

A blunt instrument

“The Albanese Government has quietly dropped one of the most consequential blows to Australia’s international education sector in years and it landed without warning,” says . “This is not simply a technical regulatory change. It is a deliberate attempt to reshape the international education market to favour public providers while freezing out the private sector…It freezes the entire pipeline of new entrants regardless of quality, innovation, or workforce relevance. It also blocks private providers from diversifying their offerings.”

Ian Pratt, Managing Director at Lexis English, also questioned the government’s approach, noting that, “We now appear to have reached the point where, instead of properly resourcing regulators to assess applications and enforce standards, the solution is simply to stop accepting applications altogether.”

“Instead of empowering the regulator to identify and remove poor operators, the government has chosen a blanket suspension targeting an entire segment of the sector,” he added on LinkedIn. “The genuinely frustrating part is that quality independent providers are not the problem here. Many of the most innovative, student-focused and internationally responsive organisations in Australian education sit within the private sector. These are the providers building niche programmes, responding quickly to employer demand, investing in student experience, and actively supporting regional economies.”

Part of a larger pattern?

The freeze on new CRICOS registrations arrives in the midst of an ongoing political debate around migration levels in Australia. Both the governing and opposition parties have offered policy positions based in part on reducing immigration levels, including with respect to international students.

A statement from Universities Australia Chief Executive Officer Luke Sheehy cautions in response that, “After two years of instability and policy swings, what the sector and students need now is stability, certainty and a clear long-term strategy.

“International students are not the low-hanging fruit both sides of politics are treating them as in the migration debate. Significant cuts to international student numbers would have real consequences for the economy and our universities at a time both are doing it tough.

“Australia cannot afford another race to the bottom driven by stop-start policy settings, political signalling or measures that damage our economy, our universities and our global reputation.”

For additional background, please see:

• “Australia: Multiple data indicators signal further declines ahead for international student numbers“
• “Australia: Student visa refusal rates reach record high amid weakening demand from China“
• “New IDP research shows link between visa uncertainty and the perceived ROI of study abroad“

The post Australia orders a year-long pause on new VET and ELICOS provider registrations appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

The survey gathered responses from 211 international buyers and agents responsible for organising youth group travel to the UK, including school groups, educational tours, and language programmes. Just over half (54%) of the responding buyers and agents were located in Europe, with the balance based in non-European “long-haul markets.”

Half of the respondents reported that demand for group travel to the UK is weaker than in 2025, with a similar proportion (56%) indicating that the UK is now harder to sell than in the past. Nearly four in ten (37%) expect bookings to decline in 2026 with only 12% reporting stronger demand relative to 2025.

“While demand has not disappeared,” BETA adds, “the data suggests that conversion is being constrained by a combination of cost pressures and access barriers.”

The respondents referred to rising accommodation, transport, and programme fees in particular, alongside less favourable exchange rates against the British pound. They noted as well the increased administrative burden for schools and group travel organisers, particularly the friction introduced by requirements for visas, electronic travel authorisations (ETAs), and passports in the post-Brexit marketplace.

“Teachers are filling in tons of lists and doing too much paperwork,” said one respondent. “Organising school trips is becoming more time-consuming and complex than it needs to be,” added another.

At the same time, competition is increasing from other destinations in Europe where, in the words of one survey participant, “EU competitors are much cheaper with less strict entry requirements. Another said: “We are losing groups to destinations that are easier to access and more affordable.”

Finally, the survey observed an apparent impact from world events. As BETA explains, “Among responses received before late February, 45% reported weaker demand for 2026. This rose to 55% among those responding after the escalation of geopolitical tensions, indicating a clear impact on confidence and booking behaviour.”

The survey results also point to levers that would boost the UK’s attractiveness for international youth travel: greater price certainty or improved affordability for group bookings and especially streamlined visa and entry processes and a reduced administrative burden generally.

“What this data shows very clearly is that demand for the UK is still there, but it is becoming harder to convert that demand into bookings,” said BETA Executive Director Emma English. “International partners are telling us they are facing increasing challenges around cost, complexity and confidence.”

“This is a highly organised, group-based market, and small changes in policy or process can have a significant impact on whether a trip goes ahead or not. If we want to remain competitive internationally, we need to ensure the UK is as accessible, affordable and easy to navigate as possible for schools, students and the organisations that support them.”

The significance of that outlook is underscored by ongoing reporting from English UK, which makes it very clear that youth group travel plays a significant role in the ELT sector.

In the most recent full-year reporting (2024), junior students accounted for 62% of English language course enrolments in the UK, and 33% of all student weeks.

For additional background, please see:

• “UK ELT reports challenging enrolment trends continued through last quarter of 2025“
• “Economic impact of UK ELT estimated at nearly £2 billion“
• “UK ELT reports a decline in student weeks for 2024“

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European students make up the largest share of all ELT learners in Malta (72%).

Modest uptick in student weeks but numbers are down

In 2025, total student weeks in Malta increased to 262,255, up +2.1% compared with 2024 levels. This is the second-highest level of weeks for the country’s 34 licensed ELT schools, and weeks are +9.6% higher than they were pre-pandemic in 2019.

Also up was the average length of stay: 3.4 weeks. This is a significant increase from 2.8% in 2019.

However, schools hosted -6% fewer students in 2025 compared with 2024, and the decline is -10% since 2019. In total, there were 76,065 ELT students in Malta in 2025, a decline of 5,000 students from 2024.

Of the students enrolled in 2025, 29% were under the age of 15, while 21% were 16 to 17 years of age. The 50+ age bracket was the only one to grow (+8.3% on 2024).

Malta is particularly popular among women, who account for nearly two-thirds of all learners (63%).

Regional trends

Given that weeks and average stay are up, and student numbers are down, there is a trend of students choosing longer courses versus shorter ones. This is because of the mix of student nationalities: Malta is becoming more popular in non-EU markets such as Brazil, Türkiye, and China. Because students from outside of Europe have to travel farther to get to Malta, they often stay for longer than EU students.

Non-EU numbers increased slightly from 21,125 to 21,430, while EU numbers dropped from 59,820 to 54,635.

Malta experienced notable year-over-year losses in students from its top market in Europe: Italy (-13.2%). This is significant given that Italians send so many more students to Malta than other countries do; they represent almost a quarter (23%) of all students. In 2025, there were 17,525 Italians in ELT courses, a slip from 20,180 the year before.

Non-European countries send fewer students than European countries, but non-EU students contribute a large proportion of weeks. Here, a worrisome sign was that Colombians spent -10.3% fewer weeks in Malta in 2025 (32,780) than in 2024. However, Brazil and France were up in weeks by +15.1% and +7.9%, respectively, helping to mitigate the drop from Colombia.

Students who stayed the longest in 2025 were Colombians, Chileans, and South Koreans (whose average stay was 12.1 weeks, 11.9 weeks, and 8.6 weeks, respectively).

A new challenge ahead

Malta’s ELT sector will soon feel the effect of two major EU border systems: the Entry/Exit System (EES), which launched last month, and the European Travel Information and Authorisation System (ETIAS) that is expected to become operational in Q4 2026. explains on its website how this will affect non-EU students considering Malta for ELT:

“EU nationals sit outside the scope of both systems … the new rules will bite on the non-EU learners who are currently propping up Malta’s weeks total. Students from Colombia, Brazil, Türkiye, Switzerland, China, and South Korea will face biometric registration on every entry and exit under EES. Most of these nationalities also fall within the 59 visa-exempt countries that will need an ETIAS authorisation from late 2026.”

ETIAS offers this advice to Malta’s schools and agents: “Agents and schools will need to brief non-EU students, particularly older learners unfamiliar with online applications, about the €20 ETIAS fee and processing windows that can stretch to 30 days for applicants called to interview.”

For additional background, please see:

• “Student weeks for Malta’s ELT sector surpassed pre-pandemic levels in 2023”
• “Non-EU markets boosting recovery of Malta’s English language training sector”

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The proposal also suggests that students in shorter programmes (e.g., two-year master’s) will need to leave at the end of their study programme unless they receive an extension, with language students allowed a 24-month maximum term of admission, including breaks and vacation time.

The government intends to abolish the “Duration of Status” (D/S) system, which allows students to stay beyond the end-date on their I-20 form if they can prove they have legitimate reasons for an extension. The D/S system has been in effect for decades.

As for when the D/S system will be formally replaced, Jill Allen Murray, Deputy Executive Director of Public Policy at NAFSA: Association of International Educators, told :

“We do anticipate that it will happen soon. We know that the administration’s desire is certainly to have [the fixed time limit rule] in place so that it would be effective for students arriving in the United States in the fall. They do have a proposed a 60-day implementation period that has to happen, so working back from that, the very latest we should see the final rule is between the end of May and end of June.”

The webinar was presented by NAFSA, the International Student Resource Center, and the Presidents’ Alliance on Higher Education and Immigration, and it was devoted to preparing institutions for the impact of the rule change.

What is being replaced?

The D/S system, which allows F and J students an extension on the admission end-date on their I-20 form if their school, college, or university determines they are progressing in their studies. The D/S system recognises that international students need flexibility when it comes to accomplishing their study goals. For example:

• A student begins their journey in an English-intensive programme (IEP) and then progresses to higher education once they have become more proficient in the language;
• A PhD student needs more than four years to finish their programme (which is very common – the average is five to eight years);
• A student completes their degree programme and then progresses to Optional Practical Training (one year) or STEM OPT (three years) to gain work experience.

These are only some of the common and legitimate study pathways offered to international students under D/S.

If a student needs to stay in the US for longer to complete their programme, they apply for an extension to the Designated School Official (DSO) at their institution, who is familiar with the student’s academic progression and performance. The DSO is authorised to make extension decisions by the Department of Homeland Security.

How will the extension process change?

According to the proposal, the DSO will no longer have power to approve the extension request. That will transfer to US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) officials, and those officials will be permitted to “use discretion” in their decisions. The date students are required to leave the US (with a 30-day grace period) will be entered on their I-94 form, linked to their passport. Students will need to make their case for an extension directly to USCIS.

Other limitations

The proposal also seeks to prohibit international undergraduate students from changing programmes or schools in the first year of their studies and graduate students from doing so at any point. Extensions will not be granted to students wanting to pursue a second degree or qualification if immigration authorities deem that programme to be at the same or lower level than the initial one.

The threat to OPT

When the government takes over the role of education institutions in deciding if a student should have more time to complete their studies, the implications will be massive, especially for students aiming to participate in Optional Practical Training (OPT). The director of USCIS, Joseph Edlow, has indicated he is prepared to restrict access to OPT. In May of 2025 at his , he said:

“What I want to see would be essentially a regulatory and sub-regulatory program that would allow us to remove the ability for employment authorizations for F-1 students beyond the time that they are in school.”

The OPT and STEM OPT post-study work streams are vital to US institutions’ ability to compete for international students (especially those in STEM and at the graduate level). A 2025 survey conducted by NAFSA and  found that 54% of current international students would not have chosen the US if there was no OPT option.

If it becomes too cumbersome, expensive, and uncertain to request an extension for OPT, demand will be extremely affected in the US’s top source of students, India. This is because Indians represent about half of all participants in OPT and STEM OPT.

The implications for graduate programmes

Nearly half of all international students in the US are studying at the master’s or doctoral level. The proposal includes a four-year limit for graduate programmes. Doctoral-level programmes very frequently require more time than this to complete. International student demand for graduate programmes is already down, and it will almost certainly fall further due to the proposal.

Some graduate programmes in STEM could be devastated. According to IIE data, international students account for almost 70% of enrolments in math and computer science programmes and more than half in engineering programmes. In AI-related programmes, 7 in 10 enrolments are international.

Such statistics also illustrate the huge potential of international STEM graduates to contribute to research and innovation in the US economy.

Will current students be affected?

The finalised rule is expected to apply to new students coming into the US in September 2026. Current students wanting to extend their stay beyond their programme end-date will likely need to submit a request to immigration authorities. It is possible there will be a six-month grace period for OPT students after the ruling goes into effect, as long as they do not leave the country.

Why is D/S being replaced?

The government says that the D/S setup cannot adequately address cases of fraud and visa non-compliance by international students and exchange visitors. More broadly, the change is being framed as a way to better protect national security because it will provide more opportunities for DHS to monitor the activities of international students. Students’ end-dates and activities will be more closely integrated into the US visa infrastructure.

In its response to the proposal, NAFSA exposed many holes in the government’s argument – including the lack of data compromising many of its points – and explained how much of the monitoring the DHS wants to do could be accomplished by making tweaks to the SEVIS system upon which D/S relies.

NAFSA has mounted a comprehensive and sector-wide effort to have the government reconsider the end of D/S or at least to significantly reconsider the proposed changes. The association has stated:

“If [the proposal] becomes final, the damage done by this rule will be felt on our campuses and in our communities and will harm our country’s standing in the world.”

The “sea change” ahead

The need for students to file a request for an extension to USCIS will be anything but a procedural switch. As Joann Ng Hartmann, Strategic Initiatives Leader at NAFSA says, it will be a “sea change.”
It will introduce considerable uncertainty for students, for two main reasons:

• At present, USCIS’s processing of immigration requests has never been more backlogged. Adding international students’ requests for extensions to the backlog will only worsen the situation. Many students will face a long wait to see if their extension is approved. 


  
• The granting of extensions will be in the hands of immigration officials at a time when the US government is eager to reduce the flow of foreigners into the country.

In addition, it will cause chaos for schools and colleges, according to Robin Catmur-Smith, Director of Immigration Services in the Office of Global Engagement at the University of Georgia, who was a NAFSA webinar panelist. Institutions will need to change their recruitment messaging, websites, communications, and supports for incoming and current students.

The administration burden – and needed budget – will be extremely high as well for the new compliance and procedural changes ahead. International student departments will in many cases have to be reorganised to advise and track different student profiles (e.g., J students, graduate students, incoming students, OPT students). What’s more, because the final proposal has not yet been published, institutions are in some ways flying blind as they attempt to prepare themselves, recruitment agents, current students, and incoming students for the September 2026 intake.

Where does the government proposal stand now?

The DHS review of comments and objections submitted by tens of thousands of respondents – including universities and peak bodies – is complete and the document is now final. NAFSA announced today that:

“On May 5, 2026, that will eliminate F and J “Duration of Status” to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for review. We expect OMB’s review to be expeditious and for the rule to be published in the Federal Register in the not-too-distant future. The final rule will go into effect 60 days after publication in the Federal Register. Although the text of the final rule will not be available to the public until at least 24 hours before the Federal Register publication date, we surmise that it will retain most if not all of the changes included in the proposed rule.”

Can the rule be challenged?

During the 28 April NAFSA webinar, Andrew Lyonsberg, a partner at McDermott Will & Schulte’s Supreme Court & Appellate Litigation and Government & Regulatory Litigation practice, presented as a panelist. He spoke to the question of whether the fixed time limit rule can be legally challenged.

Mr Lyonsberg, whose practice has successfully appealed past Trump administration immigration rules, says that when the final rule is published, DHS will need to present strong rationale that the need for the change outweighs the “harms” of it to students, institutions, and stakeholders. If not, this will likely clear a path to litigation.

If there is a challenge, it would likely be that the rule should be struck down because it is “arbitrary and capricious.” That legal terminology without a reasonable basis, ignoring relevant facts or logic and often appearing random, unfair, or unsupported by the evidence.

Mr Lyonsberg said that the international education community could prepare to support potential litigation by beginning to document concrete examples of harms the proposal would inflict on students, institutions, staff, and more.

The larger implications

NAFSA states:

“We are in a global competition for talent, as other countries around the world recognize the outsized economic and social benefits of international students and exchange visitors and have implemented policies to create a welcoming environment for these students to thrive.”

“If finalized, the rule will foster tremendous uncertainty for many international students and exchange visitors about whether they will be able to maintain their legal status in the United States through the completion of their studies or program, discouraging students and exchange visitors from coming here, and pushing them to look for opportunities in other countries instead.”

NAFSA also has related to the proposal and its implications, including:

• “Preparing for the final D/S rule. How has your office started to prepare?”
• “Spreadsheet for advising and staffing planning”
• “Presidents’ Alliance Survey: Share how international talent strengthens our communities”

For additional background, please see:

• “What international students need to know about study and work visas in the US”
• “US: Student visa issuances fell by -36% in summer 2025; OPT uncertainty among factors affecting international student demand”

The post US to end “Duration of Status” for F, J, and I visas and limit the time international students can study in the US appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

The latter development is bound to have widening impacts across the world as the strait is a notably narrow maritime passage through which approximately 20% of the world’s daily oil and liquefied natural gas shipments flow. A closure of any duration will cause supply chain shortages and surging energy prices, and could even threaten global economic stability.

It has been hard not to notice the early projections of that widening economic instability over the past couple of weeks. In the , for example, “When the war in Iran started…Asia expected to see serious, gradual impacts from losing access to a huge portion of the world’s oil and gas. But the conflict’s economic and social impacts have hit the region harder and faster than officials and experts expected.”

Or from : “Losing almost 20% of global oil supply leads to shortages, rationing, with effects that go far beyond demand destruction from higher prices. Around two-thirds of global oil consumption is transport-related, and diesel is the backbone of commercial logistics, agriculture, and parts of industry, so disruption would hit the economy through multiple channels.”

It seems clear that those impacts will be felt unevenly, with some global regions, notably Asia, more impacted as those supply chains and energy supplies are more directly affected by a disruption in Gulf shipping. Other regions, such as North America, are expected to be less affected. What is clear, however, is that such a significant change in global energy supply will unleash a new type of inflationary pressure on global markets, as rising fuel costs drive up prices across the global economy.

Those price effects have been particularly visible over the past month with respect to air travel. Around the world, carriers are adding fuel surcharges or otherwise raising fares to keep pace with rising fuel costs. Some are also cutting back on routes to better ensure that flights operate closer to capacity. There are also a growing number of reports projecting a shortage in jet fuel for at least this quarter and next, which could lead to further flight reductions and will only heighten the upward pressure on airfares.

“Much of the world’s jet fuel is refined in Asia; South Korea is the world’s No. 1 exporter,” reports . “But much of the crude that Asian countries use to make jet fuel comes from the Middle East…Even if the strait does reopen for good, and soon, it will take weeks for oil and jet fuel trapped by the strait’s closure to reach customers in Europe and Asia.”

To make that a little more concrete, the benchmark European jet fuel price for the week ending 24 April was US$1,478 per tonne, which compares to the per-tonne rate of US$831 before the war began. Airline pricing policy is changing quickly as a result, with carriers often levying fixed or route-specific fuel surcharges. In some cases, airfares have roughly doubled (or more) since February.

On top of those direct impacts of rising fuel costs and/or shortages of jet fuel, tens of thousands of flights have been cancelled or rerouted around key air travel hubs in the Gulf region, further adding to the disruption and upward pressure on airfares.

How are students affected?

It is too early to say how that global pricing disruption, or the prospect of a deepening economic impact, will impact student mobility.

Based on historical patterns, we might imagine that students travelling for longer-term travel – such as a degree programme or K-12 studies of a year or more – are less likely to be deterred in their study plans this year. But those same historical patterns suggest that enrolment in shorter-term courses, such as summer language programmes, could be more heavily affected.

When asked for their perspective on an EnglishUSA online forum, member language schools reported a mixed outlook for the summer season. “No one has explicitly referenced high airfare as a reason for not enrolling in courses this summer,” said one. “One partner did mention higher flight costs than anticipated, but that did not impact plans to attend our summer sessions. We’ve also had some partners indirectly reference ‘global affairs’ as a reason for not sending students this year, without mentioning flights specifically.”

“One of our partners cited the war, rising costs, and current global uncertainty as their reason for backing out of a summer special programme,” said another. “So, yes, we are seeing a negative impact.”

English UK Chief Executive Jodie Gray adds, “We have heard anecdotal reports from members that they’re seeing some cancellations from individual students/groups, and there’s concern that the situation may worsen as we move towards the summer.

English UK is running a monthly barometer of our members to monitor the impact of the war in the Middle East on their businesses. At this time of year, it’s very much a tipping point. There is a sense of uncertainty about what will unfold over the coming months as we head into the crucial summer season. What is clear is that the UK ELT sector is very much open for business as normal.”

For additional background, please see:

• “As Iran retaliates across the Middle East, schools close, students worry, and institutions reassess transnational education“

The post How will the war in Iran impact international student mobility? appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

The context here is the past three years of new policy settings and greater government intervention to manage student inflows, as well as two successive student visa application fee hikes. As of this writing, the non-refundable fee of AU$2,000 is the highest in the world. The cost of a student visa – and the very real possibility for students from many markets that their application will be refused – is dampening demand, especially for students coming for relatively shorter programmes, such as English-language courses.

Unravelling the data

Presenting the analysis to IEAA members in April 2026, English Australia CEO Ian Aird showcased the importance of clarifying the source, time frame, and implications of often misunderstood data indicators for Australia’s international education sector. For example:

• Enrolments vs. student numbers: In Australia, course enrolments tend to be the main data point presented in international education summaries and covered by media. They are sometimes confused with international student numbers – which are something quite different. Enrolments are always far higher than student numbers because international students often enrol in multiple courses in a given year (e.g., two back-to-back English-language courses of four months each would be counted as two enrolments for a single student).

• Commencements vs. NTAs: General commencement numbers comprise both students coming for the first time to study in Australia and students already in Australia who progress from a completed course to a new course. But “New-to-Australia” (NTA) commencements describe only offshore students enrolling for the first time ever in Australia.

Each of those four indicators – course enrolments, student numbers, commencements, and NTA commencements – tell very different stories. Of the four, enrolments are the least indicative of the current and future state of affairs. Mr Aird explains:

“Both enrolment and commencement figures must be recognised as ‘lag indicators’ in terms of sector health. That is, the enrolments are students who may have started their courses months and sometimes years ago. Even commencements are students who booked, paid for, and were granted visas months before they commence. If a commencement is part of a pathway, it too could have been booked years before it is indicated in the official data.

This means that the majority of 2025 enrolments and many 2025 commencements are students who were not impacted by any of the 2024 changes to the student visa system and government policy.”

Why NTAs are more predictive of future trends

New-to-Australia commencement data offers a stronger indication of international student demand under the current settings – and relatedly, factors either easing or challenging students’ ability to come to Australia. This is because NTA counts represent new students coming into Australia within the recent past (as opposed to enrolments, for example, where data could represent demand from years prior, before the new policy settings came into force). Therefore, the latest NTA data reflects students who have relatively recently:

• Wanted to apply to an institution in Australia
• Decided to pay the fee for a visa application (currently AU$2,000)
• Had their visa approved

When NTAs fall, it suggests that fewer students now consider it worthwhile to apply for a visa and/or more students who are having their visa rejected. A recent decline suggests that the trend will continue unless current circumstances change. Right now, that context is Australia’s extraordinarily expensive visa application fee and high rate of visa refusals.

Recent increases or decreases in the volume of visa applications and in the visa approval rate provide an even better sense of the future trendline for the sector. These can also be divided into applications made in Australia (hence, re-enrolling students) and applications made outside Australia (generally, New-to-Australia students).

Have NTAs fallen?

New-to-Australia commencements have indeed fallen (see Chart 1 below), and this decline coincides with both a lower application volume (Chart 2) and a higher visa refusal rate for students from key markets.

Below, Chart 1 shows that whole-sector NTAs have dropped significantly over the past two years and are significantly lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic. Chart 2 reveals that the number of students submitting visa applications fell by 32% from the post-COVID rebound peak in 2023 to 2025.

The damage to ELICOS and VET providers is the most severe

The picture for the ELICOS and VET sectors is considerably bleaker than the all-sector aggregate: a -40% y-o-y New-to-Australia commencement decline in 2025 for ELICOS and a -49% fall for VET. Chart 3 (below) shows the pattern for ELICOS.

As English Australia notes, there is a clear connection between the timing of visa application fee hikes and plummeting applications (and NTAs) for ELICOS:

“The student visa application charge went from AU$710 to AU$1,600 from 1 July 2024. This saw the monthly average student visa applications for ELICOS study fall by 34% versus pre-COVID (2018–2019) application levels or 46% versus post-COVID (2023) application levels. The increase of the student visa application charge to AU$2,000 from 1 July 2025 saw applications for ELICOS fall a further 27%.”

What about higher education?

The higher education sector has so far fared better than other kinds of providers because (1) many of the universities have the advantage of streamlined visa processing, which means their applicants aren’t scrutinised to nearly the extent as for other sectors, and (2) students are more willing to pay the visa application fee because it is a smaller proportion of the cost of a degree. For example, from 2024 to 2025:

• Higher education course enrolments rose by +9.7%;
• Commencements also increased slightly (+0.7%);
• New-to-Australia commencements were down by only -0.5%.

However, the sector’s resilience is now being tested in multiple ways. Major challenges include a decline in demand from China and high visa refusal rates for other key markets.

Chart 4 shows the proportion of applications from the top 10 source countries for higher education. The top 10 countries are traditionally responsible for 85% of all HE applications from offshore (that is, new students in the system). In Q4 2025, Chinese applications accounted for over 4 in 10 (43%) of these offshore applications. This fell to a third (34%) in January 2026 and to less than a quarter (23%) in February 2026.

By contrast, demand from India, Nepal, and Bangladesh has risen to the point where 65% of offshore applications from the top 10 are from these three countries. But much of this demand is being stopped at the border. In February 2026, 40% of Indians applying for a visa for study at an Australian university were rejected, as were 51% of Bangladeshis and 65% of Nepalis.

Lower interest from China – coupled with high visa rejection rates for students from other top markets –will almost certainly lead to a decline in Australian university commencements and enrolments in the coming intakes.

Are Australian government policies working?

To manage immigration, the Australian government is working to better link migrant profiles to labour force skills gaps. It wants to reduce net migration to pre-pandemic levels though policies aimed at increasing barriers for low-skilled temporary visa holders to work and immigrate.

Mr Aird presented a slide (shown below) showing that of eight temporary visa categories, only one is being affected by this mission: international students. He commented:

“Where government is talking about the number of temporary visa holders, and they’re taking all sorts of actions to control and manage that, they’re actually managing only one group – student visa holders. The other groups are all increasing significantly.”

The English Australia report reminds readers: “It’s vital to remember these numbers relate to real people. Falling student numbers means lost jobs in Australia, lost livelihoods.”

For additional background, please see:

• “Australia: Student visa refusal rates reach record high amid weakening demand from China”
• “Australia: Latest enrolment data challenges the government’s assertion of stability for international education this year“
• “Australia: Full-year data for 2025 reveals impact of AUD$2,000 study visa application fee on ELICOS sector“
• “Australia passes integrity legislation; sharpens definition of agents and agent commissions“

The post Australia: Multiple data indicators signal further declines ahead for international student numbers appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

As of this year, however, that pathway enrolment has now dwindled to the “low single digits” according to industry experts. This dramatic shift is the result of new immigration settings that essentially upended that national network of joint programmes.

Not enough PALs

The challenge to the pathway model first appeared in the form of Canada’s cap on foreign enrolment in January 2024. That cap is in part administered through an inventory of Provincial Attestation Letters (PALs) that are allocated by the federal government to each Canadian province or territory. Each provincial or territorial government in turn distributes its PAL inventory among its respective Designated Learning Institutions (DLIs). The pattern that has emerged over the first years of the cap system is that (1) PAL allocations tend to be heavily weighted to public institutions and (2) the allocations for language schools are often very modest.

In 2026, for example, Ontario, the province that is home to the country’s largest share of international students, allocated 96% of its PALs to public colleges and universities in the province. Only 4% were reserved for language schools, private universities, and other institutions.

The change of status problem

Subsequent to the introduction of the enrolment cap, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) also introduced that sets out that an international student, “Must be enrolled in the designated learning institution (DLI) named on [their] study permit. This means [they] can no longer change DLIs by letting us know through [their] online account. To change DLIs, [they] need to get a new study permit by applying to extend [their] current one.”

This directly impacted the traditional pathway model in Canada in that students would now need to apply for a new study permit as they moved from one pathway partner (one DLI, that is) to the next.

In short, that combination of a limited inventory of PALs for language schools and the additional uncertainty introduced around the new change of status provisions meant that the conventional pathway model in Canada was no longer viable.

Creating a new pathway model for language study

On the heels of those earlier policy changes from 2024, IRCC introduced a further revision to its rules for “joint programmes resulting in a single credential” in July 2025.

Languages Canada, the peak body for language training in the country, sought clarification from IRCC as to how that new rule might apply to pathway programmes. “The idea we began with,” says Languages Canada Executive Director Gonzalo Peralta, “is that language itself could be the joint programme.”

In November 2025, the association received confirmation from IRCC that the new rule around joint programmes could indeed be applied to a language study pathway.

This determination led Languages Canada to create a new model for pathways – the (JPP) – and to operationalise that new model via a limited pilot beginning in February 2026.

Languages Canada explains that in the JPP, “Lower-level language education is delivered by the private partner, followed by upper-level language education at the public partner. Students remain within a single joint programme under one study permit. The public institution issues a [letter of acceptance, LOA] and PAL naming both DLIs and specifying the joint programme. The public institution conducts LOA verification and compliance reporting, and issues a conditional LOA for the academic programme [outside of the JPP].”

That model is based on IRCC’s current for joint programmes which set out that:

“Students pursuing a joint programme that results in a single credential may be issued

• one provincial/territorial attestation letter from the province or territory of the DLI issuing the credential and
• one study permit for the DLI issuing the credential for the entire duration of their studies (or for the duration of their passport validity, whichever comes first).

The DLI issuing the credential must

• issue the LOA with no academic conditions required to advance to the next DLI in the joint programme
• complete the LOA verification activity
• complete the international student compliance regime report, which includes reporting on the student when they are studying at any other DLI that is part of the administration of the joint program”

With that operational guidance in place, the benefits for each partner in the JPP are clear. As Languages Canada explains, “For private language schools, the JPP creates a compliant pathway for study permit students and helps navigate PAL scarcity. For public institutions, it offers a way to increase intake by partnering with trusted private partners and leveraging established recruitment pipelines in diverse markets.”

Going nationwide

Based on the findings from the early pilot and on the considerable demand from prospective pathway partners, Languages Canada announced at its annual conference in March 2026 that the JPP pilot will now be rolled out nationally. “The Joint Pathway Program aims to bring language pathway programmes back to Canada’s education ecosystem, in a structured and responsible way that protects students, institutions, and Canada,” says Mr Peralta. “By aligning language education with post-secondary pathways in a clear and coordinated way, we are restoring confidence in Canada as a destination of choice for international students.”

Along with ILSC and Oxford International, ILAC is a participant in the pilot. “As an established leader in Canadian pathway programmes, ILAC is committed to using the JPP to continue delivering an exceptional student journey, offering a smooth, supported transition from our language programmes to post-secondary institutional partners,” adds Senior Vice President Partnership Development and Career Colleges Magdalena Link. “The IRCC-approved JPP further amplifies these opportunities, opening new doors for students pursuing higher education in Canada. The benefits for students are clear: the JPP removes the risk associated with change of status or applying for a new study permit. It offers more certainty as students can transfer from the private language school partner to the public post-secondary partner under a single study permit.”

“Our objective is to bring pathways back to Canada,” says Languages Canada’s Peralta. “Within three to five years, we want to have at least 10% of language students in pathways.”

For additional background, please see:

• “Canada’s foreign enrolment has fallen by nearly 300,000 students over the last two years“
• “Canada: A case study of immigration policy impacts on postsecondary institutions and the wider economy“
• “Canada announces international student cap numbers for 2026 and updated programme guidance“
• “Nearly 30 Canadian language programmes closed in Q1, marking the ‘sharpest decline in the sector’s history’“
• “Canada’s language sector buffeted by policy changes in 2024“

The post Canada’s language training sector reinvents pathway programme model in response to policy settings appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.