黑料官网 Monitor Articles about Global Summit Recommended Reading /category/macro-trends/global-summit-recommended-reading/ 黑料官网 Monitor is a business development and market intelligence resource providing international education industry news and research. Wed, 17 Sep 2025 17:30:59 +0000 en-GB hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.5.3 /wp-content/uploads/2022/07/cropped-LOGO_2022_FLAVICON-2-32x32.png 黑料官网 Monitor Articles about Global Summit Recommended Reading /category/macro-trends/global-summit-recommended-reading/ 32 32 The four key trends that will shape international student mobility for the next decade /2025/09/the-four-key-trends-that-will-shape-international-student-mobility-for-the-next-decade/ Wed, 17 Sep 2025 17:30:55 +0000 /?p=46123 The following has been adapted from the opening plenary given by Editor in Chief Craig Riggs at the 黑料官网 Monitor Global Summit in London, 12 September 2025. A year ago, in this very room, we looked at two macro trends that are shaping the international student market. One is the considerable and continuing demand-side growth…

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The following has been adapted from the opening plenary given by Editor in Chief Craig Riggs at the 黑料官网 Monitor Global Summit in London, 12 September 2025.

A year ago, in this very room, we looked at two macro trends that are shaping the international student market. One is the considerable and continuing demand-side growth 鈥 that is, the considerable growth in demand for study abroad and for access to education across markets worldwide.

The other is the pushback on historically high levels of immigration in a number of the world’s leading study destinations, and the changing political culture around immigration in many of those countries.

There are obviously some significant implications for us in both of those points, and so let’s just revisit them very quickly.

The 9 million students

In the following chart, we see a forecast from HolonIQ. It’s one that I pay attention to and I appreciate the detail and thought reflected here, but it’s also in line with other serious forecasts that we have for how student mobility is likely to take shape over the rest of this decade.

The short version of all that is that 鈥 tracing the arc of student mobility over the previous decades up to the present day and looking ahead through the rest of this decade 鈥 the most likely scenario is that we will reach around 9 million students abroad in higher education by the end of this decade, whereas we’re at about 7 million right now.

I should highlight as well that this chart describes only students abroad in higher education, and of course there are other really significant aspects of student mobility that are not factored here, including language learning and K-12.

But we can take the higher education trend line as an important proxy for the sort of broader movement of students in all segments around the world. This is important as an evidence-based projection, but it also points us to that reality that the number of students is going to continue to grow. The question is how will that really take shape? Where will those students go? And what and how will they study?

Public sentiment and political culture

The other thing that’s in play is that context around immigration that I mentioned earlier. These are recent headlines from our coverage on 黑料官网 Monitor.

This has obviously been a big story going back about 18 months or so now where we began to see some of the major study destinations 鈥 Australia, the UK, Canada, the US 鈥 introducing new policy settings and new processes that essentially all add up to a more restrictive environment for international students.

What we’re really seeing there is that the political culture in those destinations is changing in an important way. It reflects a growing public concern around historically high immigration levels, and that gets rolled into domestic concerns around costs of living, access to housing, access to healthcare, and more.

International students are a very small part of that historically high immigration globally, but of course, they’re caught in that same dynamic. And the result is that more restrictive policy framework for students and really in particular an active effort on the part of many of those national governments to reduce the number of new students coming into each country.

Right now we’re about 18 months or so into that cycle, and indeed we can see the effect is profound in Canada and in Australia where the number of new student commencements has been reduced quite significantly.

And that brings us to our first related trend for this year.

The Big 14

One of the most important trends we are tracking this year is the shift in student demand to destinations outside of those Big Four destinations.

We speak colloquially about the Big Four, meaning Australia, Canada, the UK, and the US. They are thought of as the Big Four, because historically and up to the present day, they are the hosts for a majority of the world’s internationally mobile students.

There are of course many students who go to many other destinations besides, but those four English-speaking host countries have always had a lion’s share of the international student market.

But what we’re seeing now is that we’re actively moving from that Big Four state to something that’s more like a Big 14. You can quibble about what the number is, but the point is that really we’re seeing a shift in student demand, student interest, and student movement to a wider field of destinations. And we see more and more evidence of that shift all the time with every passing month.

I was looking recently, for example, at the QS ranking this year for the top student cities. And this year, for the first time, the top-rated city was Seoul. The number two city in this year’s ranking was Tokyo, and they are just two of the eight city-destinations in Asia that appear in the top 20 cities in the QS ranking.

The point is there is a lot of movement happening there. We can explore in a minute what some of the factors are that are driving that, but that has to get our attention that it’s not London, it’s not New York that is in that top spot. We’re seeing a lot of movement in that table that’s reflecting something about the attractiveness of those cities and their success in attracting greater numbers of mobile students.

As we highlight those cities, we’re really talking about a pattern where that student interest and student movement is flowing across a wider field of countries, particularly in Europe and in Asia.

So in Europe, we’d be talking about countries like Germany, France, Spain, Italy, and Turkey. In Asia, we’re looking at destinations like Korea, Japan, China, Malaysia, and Taiwan.

They’re all notable in that this is not a new story. I mean, many of these countries have been growing their international enrolment for some time. But it feels like something has tipped over in the last year, and we’re seeing more significant growth in many of those destinations.

Many of them are also becoming much more active recruiters of students. And this is really changing the market dynamic in an interesting way 鈥 at the very least, global market share is becoming more widely distributed.

Part of that is a function of that disruption in those Big Four destinations that I mentioned. But part of it is that at the same time as those leading destinations are being disrupted by that type of policy change, those growing destinations in Asia and Europe are taking steps to gain a greater share of the international student market: in the form of expanded marketing activity, in policy alignment that smooths visa processing and opens up new work and settlement opportunities, and in new programmes and services for international students.

Take Japan as an example. The following chart shows foreign enrolment in Japan over an extended period of time. And it happens that that enrolment reached a historic high last year.

At that point there were, in 2024, just under 337,000 international students in Japan. So once you’re into that 300,000鈥400,000 enrolment base, you’re starting to talk about real numbers that have a material effect on the marketplace.

That 337,000 students last year reflects, you can tell from the sharpness of that red line at the top of the graph, really significant year-over-year growth, 21% last year alone.

So that a clue that those students are moving in greater numbers to this type of destination. Japan has a target to grow its foreign enrolment to 400,000 students by 2033. And as you can see, they are well on their way and they’ll almost certainly reach that goal. In fact, they will probably exceed it by the time we get to 2033.

Most of those students, it should be said, are coming from within Asia, particularly from China, from Nepal, from Vietnam.

Just think about those three markets for a moment. Up until the last several years, China had been the driver of global growth for decades, in terms of international student mobility. And the major destinations were in the habit of relying on that steady and reliable flow of students from China.

But think about what Nepal and Vietnam represent. Those are some of the fastest-growing outbound student markets in the world. And a couple of years ago, I started looking at Vietnam more closely. We have been following the Vietnamese market for some time, but I was not seeing the numbers of students coming through to some of those traditional destinations 鈥 like the US, like Canada 鈥 as we would’ve expected.

And it took us a little while to understand what was happening. But what was happening 鈥 what is happening 鈥 is that those students from Vietnam are going elsewhere in Asia in greater numbers as opposed to coming through to those Big Four destinations as we would’ve expected in earlier years.

Japan is a great example of that, and they’re earning a greater share of those important growth markets.

It is early days for this shift that I’m talking about. It will take another year or so before we have more detailed data, obviously for this year and for 2026, where I think we can expect that movement, that wider distribution of students across destinations, to become a lot more established. But you can see plenty of indicators of it already, like the student city ranking that I mentioned, like some of that early growth data that we can see for individual destinations.

This next chart, for example, is showing us aggregated search data from Studyportals. They have a number of online properties where students can search for programme options abroad. And what this is tracking is just the destinations that students are searching for across those properties over the years and leading into the first half of 2025.

Where is that demand going? Obviously, for the Big Four destinations, we see it trailing off. And we see that spike in student interest for destinations about the Big Four.

And what’s interesting about this, I mean you can only take this so far, but I do pay attention to this type of search data from Studyportals. IDP is very good about sharing this type of search volume data as well because it provides you with a kind of early indicator of where demand is going.

We can understand that students that are searching on these platforms are probably 12 to 18 months out from a programme start. So they’re at some early stage in their search and in their planning process for study abroad. The pattern that we’re seeing here in terms of where that interest is going, we might expect will play out in 12 or 18 months in terms of actual enrolments.

That’s what I mean when I say when we get that actual full-year enrolment data for 2025 and eventually 2026 I think we’re going to see what the real effect of some of this shift in interest might be.

But what we see across all these indicators is that global student flows are disrupted and they’re changing from those historical patterns. And I think the bottom line is that in the next five years, student demand will be much more widely distributed across the range of destinations that we’re talking about. And the competition to attract those students will become only more intense than it is even today.

How do you spell ROI?

And that brings us to our last macro trend, which is the greater emphasis across student markets on affordability and on the return on investment for study abroad.

Those factors 鈥 affordability and ROI 鈥 have come to the fore in recent years. This is not new, but what we’re talking about here is a matter of degree. The extent to which this is a priority for students in the decisions that they make about where and how they study abroad.

When you look across all the large scale student surveys 鈥 IDP, Etio, QS, Keystone, Studyportals, you name it 鈥 you see the same findings coming through. Issues around affordability and the expected value of study abroad are now the most important decision factors for students when planning their study abroad programmes. The importance of that reflects in different ways. Students talk about cost of study, cost of living, availability of scholarships, work opportunities, graduate outcomes, but we can understand that what is underpinning those priorities are these important drivers in terms of affordability and return on investment.

We see even this year that in some of the, there’s early indications that these decision drivers are changing the value proposition for students when they think about study abroad. They’re changing, for example, how students look at and how they measure quality of education. IDP had a really interesting finding earlier this year, which was indicating that students increasingly are equating quality of education with graduate outcomes.

It’s not that rankings are not important anymore, but what is the case is that students are looking past that to say, what can I really expect? What am I going to get from this experience? And what is that return on investment going to look like?

To put that another way, this is something that Tim O’Brien from INTO University Partnerships shared with us. And I thought it was a really interesting illustration of what return on investment actually looks like.

Basically what is happening here is that Tim and his team are measuring cost of study against opportunities to work during and after study in the destination against the earning expectations of a student when they return to their home market.

And what this is illustrating to us is that in these different destinations, under these different scenarios, a student stays and works for X number of years and so on, how long it takes the student to earn back the cost of study abroad. And as you can see, there’s considerable range there that hinges on things like the availability of work opportunities in the destination country, the cost of study there, the earning potential at home. This is, in short, a very vivid illustration of what that ROI driver means to an individual student.

The changing face of student mobility

But sitting behind those calculations is another important reality, I think, for all of us, which is that the composition of the international student body has shifted quite a bit over the last 10 or 15 years, and it’s continuing to shift in terms of where students are coming from.

In 2010, there were just about four million students abroad in higher education. Just under a third of those were from China. And as I said earlier, China was the driver of global growth in international mobility for a couple of decades.

Just think for a minute about the profile of those students coming out of China. They’re supported by a burgeoning economy, by an exploding middle class. They were self-funded, they were able to return to their home country and have an expectation of a higher earning potential.

In 2024, with more like seven million students abroad in higher education, only 14% of that total now comes from China, another 19% from India.

And indeed, the lion’s share of that international student body writ large is now coming from South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Africa.

This includes a greater mix of students who are loan-funded or who are funded with family support or by scholarships. They come with very different needs and expectations. And, as Tim’s work demonstrates to us, they have a different earning potential at home. So that ROI calculation is necessarily different, depending on where you are coming from.

That top city ranking from QS that I mentioned earlier perfectly reflects this. The reason that so many of those Asian cities are moving into the top 20 is because not only are they having greater success in attracting international students, but they are relatively affordable. They’re rising up the rankings on the strength of that affordability. And that is obviously a huge driver as these numbers would suggest to us of student movement.

The point I’m making here is that these macro trends are all linked.

That continuing surging demand for education, the more restrictive policy settings in the top destinations, the ambitious growth plans of a much wider field of destinations in some of the major global regions (particularly in Europe and Asia), and those changing student priorities and decision factors, especially around affordability and ROI.

Everyone sitting here is thinking those are not new ideas and they’re not new factors in the marketplace, but what is different through 2024 and now into this year is really the first time that we’re seeing them act on each other in the way that I’m suggesting here.

And that as a result, we’re beginning to see the market move at scale in a way that it hasn’t done before. The full impact of those shifts will become more clear over the next five years in particular. But there are plenty of implications in those trends for every institution and every organisation in this room.

For additional background, please see:

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UK’s stiffening compliance regime already having an impact on international student recruitment /2025/08/uks-stiffening-compliance-regime-already-having-an-impact-on-international-student-recruitment/ Wed, 06 Aug 2025 19:23:04 +0000 /?p=45948 It would be fair to say that compliance is top of mind for international educators in the United Kingdom these days. The May 2025 immigration white paper from the UK government sets out a number of new requirements for UK institutions, including more stringent compliance thresholds. Those have yet to be implemented but they are…

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It would be fair to say that compliance is top of mind for international educators in the United Kingdom these days. The May 2025 immigration white paper from the UK government sets out a number of new requirements for UK institutions, including more stringent compliance thresholds. Those have yet to be implemented but they are coming soon. In the meantime, some universities are already adjusting their recruitment strategies, and most others are actively working to ensure they stay on the right side of key compliance benchmarks. In the process, compliance is ever more moving from the purview of an individual compliance officer or team within the institution to a much broader concern that reaches across all aspects of international recruitment.

The question hinges on the core immigration mechanisms for international students in the UK. In order to apply for a student visa, an international student must first obtain a Confirmation of Acceptance for Studies (CAS) document. Only a sponsor 鈥 that is, an educational institution licensed by the Home Office to sponsor international students for visas 鈥 may issue a CAS. In effect, the sponsor is vouching for the student-applicant and his/her eligibility to study in the UK.

That sponsor status places a number of obligations on the institution, and particularly that a sponsor must apply for . When UK Visas and Immigration (UKVI) carries out the BCA, it currently assesses the sponsor based on the following thresholds for three “core requirements”:

  • a visa refusal rate of less than 10%;
  • an enrolment rate of at least 90%; and
  • a course completion rate of at least 85%.

The linkage there is quite explicit: the institution is expected to carefully evaluate each applicant to determine that they are eligible for admission but also, once admitted, will have a high likelihood of following through to take up their spot in their intended programme of study and then go on to successfully complete that programme. In other words, the university or college’s ability to continue to admit international students rests on its ability to recruit qualified, bona fide students that are committed to their intended programme of study.

Institutions that are found to have fallen outside of those benchmarks may be placed on . This is essentially a probationary mechanism, typically ranging from three to six months, that provides “a sponsor who has committed a breach, short of a serious breach, an opportunity to improve its processes in order to avoid any further breaches.” UKVI adds that, “An action plan sets out specific actions that a sponsor must take by a given review date,” pending the successful conclusion of which a sponsor may be taken off the action plan and carry on in good standing.

In the worst case, a sponsor found to be in more serious breach of compliance requirements, or who does not successfully progress through the action plan process, could have their sponsor license revoked by UKVI for up to two years.

Coming back to the white paper

When the immigration white paper was released in May, a lot of the initial reaction centred around the government’s decision to curb post-study work rights for international students by reducing the term of the Graduate Route from 24 to 18 months.

In the months since, however, the more stringent compliance requirements set out in the white paper have come to be seen as its most impactful component. In short, the government intends to increase the compliance thresholds by 5% across the board so that the new core requirements for the BCA will be:

  • a visa refusal rate of less than 5%;
  • an enrolment rate of at least 95%; and
  • a course completion rate of at least 90%.

The white paper also sets out a number of related measures, including the following.

  • A new, public-facing Red-Amber-Green banding system indicating the BCA performance of each sponsor, “so that it is clear to them, the authorities and the public which institutions are achieving a high rate of compliance, and which are at risk of failing.”
  • Beyond the action plan, new measures for sponsors that are falling short of, or straying too close to, the BCA compliance thresholds, including “limits on the number of new international students they can recruit.”
  • A requirement that all sponsors that are engaged with education agents sign up to the Agent Quality Framework.

The Home Office has indicated that these new measures will be implemented for the 2025/26 academic year, beginning as early as September.

A more stringent approach

There is already some indication that UKVI has been applying a more rigorous approach in BCA assessments this year. Earlier this month, for example, the University of Essex and Glasgow Caledonian University were placed on action plans. They join the University of Central Lancashire, which has been on an action plan since December 2024, and a small group of additional education providers who have moved in and out of action plans through the first half of 2025.

Commenting on LinkedIn, Nous Group Director Nicholas Dillon said, “Looking at the two universities affected, you can see variants on the same story – a massive increase in in full-time [postgraduate taught] students from Pakistan, Nigeria, and India鈥hese are far from the only universities with this narrative – though they are the ones caught up right now. And the change from a 10% to a 5% refusal rate will only make this a larger challenge.”

In a related comment to , Jonathan Hill, a senior manager with the immigration law firm Fragomen, said that UKVI had “stepped up” its audit activity this year. He added: 鈥淲e are seeing quite a stringent view on these audits by UKVI and they鈥檙e taking quite a hard-line approach when it comes to how they鈥檙e assessing institutions, so that can also cause an action plan.鈥

How will this affect recruitment?

There is an element of risk management at the heart of the CAS-sponsor-compliance model. Indeed, these mechanisms rest a great deal of responsibility for student performance and student outcomes with the institution itself.

“The tougher BCA thresholds will require student sponsors to reassess their international student recruitment strategies in order to protect their BCA metrics,” says immigration lawyer Anna Blackden.

Some institutions are already responding reducing or suspending recruiting activities in countries that are seen to be associated with higher risk. “Higher risk” in this sense being defined as markets where students are more likely to not follow through on their study plans or to complete their programmes of study 鈥 often for reasons relating to academic background, language skills, or financial difficulty.

Last month, for example, London Metropolitan University said that it would suspend admissions for Bangladeshi students. Deputy Vice-Chancellor Gary Davies has attributed the decision to high rates of visa refusals for Bangladeshi students in particular, which were putting the university’s compliance at risk.

Other UK institutions have reportedly 鈥 although less publicly 鈥 made similar decisions to limit or suspend admissions from specific markets and/or for particular fields of study where there is seen to be undue compliance risk.

A related commentary from Universities UK International (UUKi) says of the heightened BCA thresholds: “UK universities welcome talented students from around the world. These changes will help prevent abuse of the visa system by non-genuine actors. Agents have a very important role to play in supporting visa compliance and universities will continue to work closely with their agents to make sure their processes are as effective as possible.鈥

UUKi will work closely with UK universities and the Home Office on rolling out a phased approach to implementing these tightened BCA thresholds, and on what constitutes each of the red-amber-green bands. These measures will not require rules changes but rather updates to sponsorship guidance for institutions recruiting international students.”

For additional background, please see:

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The way forward: Shifting to a more strategic and student-centred recruitment /2024/11/the-way-forward-shifting-to-more-strategic-and-student-centred-recruitment/ Thu, 07 Nov 2024 21:19:26 +0000 /?p=44425 The following article is adapted from the 2025 edition of 黑料官网 Insights magazine, which is freely available to download now. This year鈥檚 sweeping policy changes in Australia, Canada, and the UK have created major challenges and confusion for thousands of schools, universities, agents, and students. But they also underline the significance of goals that many…

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The following article is adapted from the 2025 edition of 黑料官网 Insights magazine, which is .

This year鈥檚 sweeping policy changes in Australia, Canada, and the UK have created major challenges and confusion for thousands of schools, universities, agents, and students. But they also underline the significance of goals that many in our industry have already been pursuing, such as improving student experience and being more deliberate and targeted in marketing.

Important conversations are taking place across our sector about lessons learned from the events of this year and how to move forward, including at the inaugural that took place in London in September 2024.

This article is based on the dialogue at that event, and even if you haven鈥檛 been directly affected by volatile policy settings, read on for insights on fresh approaches to recruiting and hosting foreign students.

Focus on student fit

Without doubt, meeting enrolment targets and diversifying sending markets remain essential goals. But there is a growing consensus that there must be an overarching mission to attract students most suited to programmes, national policy parameters, and economic trends.

This mission can be accomplished by placing a greater emphasis on recruiting for student fit.

This approach involves creating protocols and processes designed to build a carefully targeted prospect pool. Admissions offers are then sent only to students who have met criteria qualifying them as likely to acquire a study visa and complete programmes successfully.

At the end of the day, students enrolled in programmes that match their goals, academic preparedness, and financial means are much happier than students who 鈥 because they weren鈥檛 well screened 鈥 soon struggle with courses, mental health, language issues, cultural adjustment, or a higher cost of living than they can afford.

Sharpening the recruitment lens makes particular sense in destinations that have witnessed rapid growth in international student numbers over the past few years. That growth put pressure on housing, programme capacity, and student support services. It has made it more difficult for some institutions to apply quality controls and improve graduate outcomes.

How to measure success

Dr Fanta Aw, executive director and CEO of NAFSA, says that 鈥渆conomic value is absolutely important, that is indisputable, but we have to put students at the centre.鈥

She elaborates: 鈥淭his means our institutions need a student success model [to guide them]. Outcome data is absolutely important. Pathways to employment are absolutely important. Fit is very, very important. And we鈥檝e been very clear with our institutions: Do not bring international students if you do not have the structures in place to do right by those students and their families.鈥

Students have their own criteria

Joanna Kumpula, head of international education and integration support at Tampere University in Finland, points out that students, too, are thinking more carefully about fit: 鈥淚nternational students are becoming much more discerning 鈥 they are now looking for niche programmes and specific career paths, and institutions must recognise these individual goals rather than relying on broad assumptions.鈥

Better screening leads to better outcomes

Marie Braswell, associate vice president of global strategy and market development at Canada鈥檚 Centennial College, says: 鈥淚nstitutions often look at student success only in terms of enrolment numbers, but we need to assess whether students are achieving academically and integrating socially.鈥 Ms Braswell emphasises that diversification strategies remain important, but at the same time, 鈥淲e also have to think about economic feasibility: Are students able to meet the cost-of-living requirements for a visa?鈥

Judith Lamie, pro vice chancellor for international engagement at Swansea University in the UK, explains that firm entrance requirements are required to ensure an institution is selecting students who are ready for programmes: 鈥淲e should be careful about lowering entry standards for international students 鈥 this is not sustainable and sets them up for failure.鈥

Ms Braswell and Ms Lamie鈥檚 points emphasise that offering a 鈥渜uality鈥 experience starts well before a student is admitted. It starts as soon as the student makes contact, whether through the website, social media, an agent, or institutional staff.

Strengthening the narrative

鈥淲e know that demand for international student mobility is going to be there,鈥 says Bobby Mehta, pro vice-chancellor for global engagement at the University of Portsmouth in the UK. 鈥淯nderstanding where it is, what it is, and how we can work together to [recruit effectively] in a safe, compliant, and organised way is the challenge we need to address as we go forward. [This approach] will provide national and global assurance of international education鈥檚 broader value.鈥

鈥淲e need a new narrative around international higher education and the global role of
universities, adds Jamie Arrowsmith, director of Universities UK International. “It鈥檚 about foregrounding the academic, social, and cultural benefits that come from internationalisation, and bringing those to the fore in the public discourse and public policy.鈥

The shift from quantity to quality

A shift to student-fit recruiting may change the amount of budget or staff time allocated at various points along the enrolment funnel 鈥 especially at the beginning of the transition. Preparing for recruiting will become almost as important as recruitment campaigns, because:

  • Ideal student personas will need to be developed;
  • Marketing and admissions staff must be crystal-clear on policies, education systems, and assessment standards in target markets;
  • Agents must be thoroughly vetted and receive excellent training;
  • Marketing materials, social media, and website content and structure will likely need tweaking to encourage only best-fit students to apply;
  • Student journey mapping and CRM training will be essential to keeping all teams collaborating and nurturing the most promising leads.

Once the shift is underway, international recruitment will be more efficient than any kind of volume strategy. Along with a promising prospect pool, you will also have much better ratios of students approved for visas, completing programmes, landing high-skilled and well-paid jobs, and transforming into powerful alumni.

What鈥檚 more, your admissions staff can concentrate on reviewing higher quality applications rather than sifting through mountains of unsuitable ones.

Don鈥檛 forget the data

Student fit is also about better data collection and analysis so you can make evidence-based decisions to drive your recruitment plans and track what is and isn鈥檛 working. Which overseas schools and cities are yielding the ideal student profile for your programmes? Which agents? If you don鈥檛 track what is and isn鈥檛 working, the result will be sub-optimal.

鈥淩ecruitment is now much more datadriven,鈥 says QS chief executive officer Jessica Turner. 鈥淜nowing employer needs is crucial for aligning recruitment with labour markets.鈥

Collecting data on post-graduation outcomes 鈥 outcomes that will improve as you commit to student-fit marketing 鈥 is also incredibly important. This is because:

  • Students want to know what proportion of graduates go on to get jobs 鈥 it proves ROI;
  • Employers are impressed by good graduate outcomes;
  • Peak body associations are in dire need of more data to show governments the value of international education 鈥 and that means:
    • Quantifying value in more ways than revenue or economic contribution;
    • Demonstrating that international students are indeed essential to filling skills gaps and innovation.

NAFSA鈥檚 Dr Fanta Aw underlines the need for better data by saying: 鈥淎s international education increasingly works to link student mobility to larger economic goals, the necessity of data to help address skills gaps and meet labour market demands is increasingly obvious.鈥

Dr Aw provides examples: 鈥淭he fact that we can cite that one in four of the United States鈥 billion-dollar start-ups was founded by former international students is powerful. We can show that 42% of the major companies making advances in AI have been established by former international students. That鈥檚 important. We use this data to prove the value of international education.鈥

For additional background, please see:

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Industry experts conclude that better recruitment results begin with a focus on student outcomes /2024/10/industry-experts-conclude-that-better-recruitment-results-begin-with-a-focus-on-student-outcomes/ Wed, 16 Oct 2024 16:37:48 +0000 /?p=44255 Editor鈥檚 note: The following piece draws heavily on commentary and insights from industry leaders speaking at the聽黑料官网 Monitor Global Summit聽in London, 23 September 2024. International students are now building their plans for study abroad with a much greater emphasis on outcomes. They are asking a crucial question: Will my education abroad translate into a meaningful…

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Editor鈥檚 note: The following piece draws heavily on commentary and insights from industry leaders speaking at the聽聽in London, 23 September 2024.

International students are now building their plans for study abroad with a much greater emphasis on outcomes. They are asking a crucial question: Will my education abroad translate into a meaningful career? 鈥淚t鈥檚 not just about securing a job,鈥 says Nick Miller, chief marketing officer of QA Higher Education. 鈥淪tudents are looking for a return on investment.鈥

鈥淭he prominence of employability as a critical decision factor is affecting student migration and education offerings around the world,鈥 agrees Janet Ilieva, director and founder of Education Insight. 鈥淭he rise of intra-regional mobility, for example, may be partially explained by reduced disposable family incomes post-pandemic and a desire to be closer to local labour markets.鈥

At the same time, governments in major study destinations are beginning to link student mobility to domestic labour market trends. In Canada, for example, some post-graduate work permits are now tied to sectors with long-term skills shortages, such as healthcare and technology. Marie Braswell, associate vice president of Centennial College, explains, 鈥淐anada is really clearly sending messages that they鈥檙e looking for students who meet labour market gap eligibility.鈥 The same could be said of the Optional Training Program in the United States, which grants an extended post-study work term to graduates of STEM programmes. Policymakers around the world are watching these developments as more countries seek to rapidly expand their international student numbers.

As a result, institutions, and their recruitment strategies, now need to better align with student goals, skills gaps, or other labour market objectives, both in study destinations and in the students鈥 home countries. 鈥淯niversities need to be more deliberate about aligning their curricula with the specific capabilities needed by employers in the markets they serve,鈥 says Dr Florian Hummel, vice-rector for international affairs at Germany鈥檚 International University of Applied Sciences.

But here鈥檚 the challenge. Meeting demand requires data on labour market projections, employment opportunities, and graduate outcomes. And that data is often hard to access or unavailable.

鈥淜nowing employer needs is crucial for aligning recruitment with labour markets,鈥 says Jessica Turner, chief executive officer, QS. 鈥淭he growing interest in AI, big data, and cybersecurity programmes is understandable because they offer clear employment outcomes,鈥 adds Mr Miller.

鈥淩ecruitment is becoming more data-driven,鈥 continues Ms Turner. But the trend will demand more accurate and timely data to achieve its potential. As Nannette Ripmeester, director of performance benchmarking for Europe and North America at Etio, says, 鈥淲ithout data it鈥檚 like making decisions without knowing what you’re talking about.鈥

Mr Miller explains how advanced recruitment strategies are already benefitting from more strategic approaches. 鈥淲e鈥檝e analysed what employers are looking for in high-growth sectors and have then worked with universities to help develop courses and programmes that incorporate the relevant skills and certifications,鈥 he says. 鈥淒ata enables us to match our degree titles, course content, and modules to the skills employers are looking for, not just what students are searching for.鈥

Similarly, embedding internships, placements, and partnerships into degree programmes is now a key advantage for recruitment strategies since students are often looking to gain skills or fund their studies. Across the UK, for example, universities are increasingly delivering courses in London, Birmingham, and Manchester, where there are more employers and work experience available. Northumbria University鈥檚 decade-ago decision to deliver courses in London, for example, was a strategic decision to enhance employability outcomes for students in a tangible and marketable way.

Viewing recruitment through the lens of economic demand is valuable, but more nuanced insights are necessary for educators to create the conditions that support the diverse ambitions of international students. As Joanna Kumpula, head of international education and integration support at Finland鈥檚 Tampere University, says, 鈥淚t鈥檚 not just about placing students in dynamic labour markets. International students from all regions are becoming much more discerning. They are now looking for niche programmes and specific career paths, and institutions must recognise these individual goals rather than relying on broad assumptions.鈥 Furthermore, international students are seeking knowledge and experiences that extend beyond practical and theoretical course content.

鈥淭oday鈥檚 job market requires more than just expertise in one鈥檚 field. Graduates must also possess communication, collaboration, and problem-solving skills,鈥 adds Ms Kumpula, who regularly engages with businesses to gain an understanding of their future priorities. 鈥淭his holistic approach is crucial for preparing our students to succeed in an increasingly complex global workforce,鈥 she explains. Judith Lamie, pro vice-chancellor international at Swansea University, agrees and adds, 鈥淢aking clear what students gain during their degree that will specifically help them to secure roles in the future has become a primary focus.鈥

To offer valuable, hands-on experience that enhances employability, institutions should strengthen their relationships with businesses and industries. Not only will these partnerships and alliances attract international students, they will also serve a broader purpose in that they support the sector鈥檚 advocacy efforts with policy makers and community stakeholders.

The relationship between international student recruitment and labour markets is no longer a secondary consideration 鈥 it is central to the future of the sector and the potential to both meet student expectations and help address critical labour market gaps is immense. Connecting policy goals with identified skills shortages in this way opens the door to a new approach to international recruitment 鈥撀爋ne that keeps employability and student outcomes in focus throughout.

For additional background, please see:

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Beyond the Big Four: How demand for study abroad is shifting to destinations in Asia and Europe /2024/10/beyond-the-big-four-how-demand-for-study-abroad-is-shifting-to-destinations-in-asia-and-europe/ Wed, 09 Oct 2024 19:53:19 +0000 /?p=44196 Editor鈥檚 note: The following piece draws heavily on commentary and insights from industry leaders speaking at the 黑料官网 Monitor Global Summit in London, 23 September 2024. International student mobility has historically been concentrated among the 鈥淏ig Four鈥 destinations of Australia, Canada, the UK, and the US. Over the past few years, however, there has been…

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Editor鈥檚 note: The following piece draws heavily on commentary and insights from industry leaders speaking at the in London, 23 September 2024.

International student mobility has historically been concentrated among the 鈥淏ig Four鈥 destinations of Australia, Canada, the UK, and the US. Over the past few years, however, there has been a shift towards a wider field of study destinations. That change is being driven both by changing student preferences and by the strategic goals, demographics, and labour market needs of emerging destinations.

Actual and projected foreign enrolment for selected study destinations in Asia, 2019鈥2033. Source: INTO University Partnerships

New research from INTO University Partnerships shows that prospective students are applying to more programmes than ever before 鈥 typically four or five 鈥 and to more institutions in more destinations than in previous years. This trend is projected to continue in the long term, and it means that institutions investing in enquiry responsiveness and admissions processing will see more applications converting into enrolments.

Students’ openness to alternatives reflects their changing priorities, including :

  • Affordability;
  • Fast visa processing;
  • Geographic and cultural proximity;
  • The expansion of English-taught degree programmes in non-English-speaking countries;
  • Opportunities to work during and after studies in the host country.

At the same time, destinations such as Japan and South Korea are working more actively to recruit foreign students in part because of declining domestic populations of college-aged students and the related need to attract talent in key areas of local labour market demand.

鈥淎s international students seek to understand what return they can expect on their investments, we see that decisions across every major source market are increasingly based on cost,鈥 says Peter Thompson, vice president of data analytics at INTO University Partnerships. For Jessica Turner, chief executive officer of QS, this creates a competitive point of differentiation for emerging study destinations: 鈥淚n contrast to students seeking education in the Big Four, students setting their sights elsewhere tend to prioritise affordability over reputation and teaching credentials.鈥

Regional profile of agents agreeing that study abroad decisions are increasingly focused on cost. Overall, 83% of agents agree that cost is an increasingly important factor in study abroad decision making in 2024. Source: INTO Global Agent Survey 2024

Economic opportunities are a common draw

Dr Florian Hummel, vice-rector for international affairs at the International University of Applied Sciences (IU) in Germany, says, “The economy is one of the main reasons international students come to Germany. Our strong career prospects and clear post-study work rights are some of the reasons that a growing number of students from the Indian subcontinent are choosing to study at IU.鈥

A mix of factors drives choice

Cost of living influences many students, but more expensive destinations can still attract significant market segments by virtue of other attributes. Living costs in Japan are relatively high, for example, but Japan welcomed an additional 50,000 international students in 2023 compared to the year before.

More students are also taking sustainability, national sentiment toward international students, and mental health into account when making their decisions. These trends could already be contributing to increases in student mobility to destinations such as Germany, France, and Finland.

Pros and cons

Greater access to a more diverse range of study abroad opportunities is good news for students. But Mr Thompson cautions that higher volumes of applications can also pose a risk to the sector鈥檚 reputation globally. For one, administrative functions will be under more pressure. And students may also delay decisions as they hedge their bets across destinations. This means that, more than ever before, speedy and effective response to enquiries and applications will be absolutely key.

The race for foreign talent

Countries outside of the Big Four are seizing the opportunities of a changing international education landscape, with destinations across Asia and Europe growing in popularity. Ms Turner notes, for example, that the number of international students in China doubled over 10 years from 2013 and remains healthy despite declines in the pandemic. Further, with a healthy contingent of those students coming from other Asian countries, China continues to establish itself as an important player in intra-regional recruitment.

Japan, Malaysia, South Korea, and Taiwan are on upward trajectories as well, with Japan aiming to host 400,000 international students within the next decade. South Korea鈥檚 Deputy Prime Minister and Education Minister Lee Ju-ho declared last year that, 鈥淣ow is the time to attract foreign talent strategically.鈥

In Germany, the government is the primary funder of the Deutscher Akademischer Austauschdienst (DAAD). Recognising the long-term benefits of global collaboration and welcoming the brightest minds, the DAAD is the world鈥檚 largest funding organisation for international exchange of students and researchers. In China, the government issues tens of thousands of scholarships for international students each year and is investing in infrastructure through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative.

More English-language programmes outside the Big Four

Edwin van Rest, chief executive officer of Studyportals, says, “The European Union’s decade of growth in this area is winding down. Now we are entering a decade of Asian expansion. South Asia has expanded its ETPs more than twofold since 2019. China, the Middle East and North Africa, and the rest of Asia have doubled their offerings. The Big Four are losing market share, dropping to 78% this year from 82% in 2021.”

That said, the English language is and will remain influential in Europe. Leaders such as Dr Hummel are investing in ETPs as part of their growth strategies. One of Germany鈥檚 largest universities, the IU, has approximately 200 programmes. Nearly half of those programmes are now offered in English or German.

Indeed, educators across Europe are buoyant. France and Germany each enrolled more than 400,000 students last year and international strategies in Spain are generating results. The prospects of European institutions beyond the UK are healthy overall: these destinations have become more attractive to international students from all major source countries in the last year. As we see in the table below, education agents report that interest in these European destinations has surged more than 90% among students from South Asia, and the Middle East and Africa.

Agents in China, Hong Kong, and Macau also report that interest in non-UK European institutions has increased nearly a quarter. However, these agents have seen even greater growth in the appeal of institutions in Southeast Asia and the rest of Asia.

Regional destinations cited as increasingly attractive to students. Source INTO Global Agent Survey 2024

Policy drives students to alternatives

Mr van Rest says that many students from sending countries that are the most affected by new policy settings in Big Four destinations are now looking elsewhere: 鈥淲hat they find are more attractive conditions in terms of work rights, affordability, and proximity.” This may partly account for the dramatic surge in interest in New Zealand and Ireland this year: student applications to these countries via QS increased 7.2-fold and 1.7-fold respectively, compared to last year.

Flexible delivery modes disperse demand

The appetite for new modes of higher education delivery models is reflected in expanded transnational education (TNE) activity, including regional hubs, remote delivery, and branch campuses. The UK dominates TNE, accounting for 75% of the market with around 580,000 students enrolled. Australia and the US are also key players, particularly in Asia and the Middle East. As a host country and as an education exporter, China is rapidly expanding its TNE offering and is becoming an increasingly influential player in the field.

Student mobility beyond the Big Four is being defined by strategies to deliver practical outcomes and relevant experiences. As the executive director and chief executive officer of NAFSA: Association of International Educators, Dr Fanta Aw, says, 鈥淭here is plenty of room in a growing space. We should be thinking about the 20 major countries instead of the Big Four, because students should have choices to get the best education that is right for them.”

For additional background, please see:

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International education has a data problem. It鈥檚 time to do something about it /2024/10/international-education-has-a-data-problem-its-time-to-do-something-about-it/ Wed, 02 Oct 2024 20:30:50 +0000 /?p=44161 Editor鈥檚 note: The following piece draws heavily on commentary and insights from industry leaders speaking at the 黑料官网 Monitor Global Summit in London, 23 September 2024. There is an increasingly critical need for better and more timely data in international education, and one that is being driven by a number of overlapping factors. Students, for…

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Editor鈥檚 note: The following piece draws heavily on commentary and insights from industry leaders speaking at the in London, 23 September 2024.

There is an increasingly critical need for better and more timely data in international education, and one that is being driven by a number of overlapping factors. Students, for example, are looking for stronger evidence of the return on investment they can expect from study abroad. At the same time, policymakers and other stakeholders want clear and current statistics for international enrolments, including indicators of student performance and outcomes.

It is widely acknowledged that there are significant data gaps across the international education sector. We generally don鈥檛 have as much information as we could use in terms of how students are recruited, where and how they study, how they perform in their programmes, graduation rates, and student outcomes. Further, there can be a real issue with timeliness of the data we do have. In the UK, for example, higher education enrolment figures often lag well behind the actual reporting period. This year, they were released months later than usual and arrived a full 16 months after the academic year in question.

This absence of comprehensive, transparent, and up-to-date data creates vulnerability for the sector. It undermines the impact and narrative around the benefits of global education. To take just one recent example, during a September 2024 media briefing, Canadian Immigration Minister Marc Miller asserted that foreign college graduates mainly go on to work at low-paying jobs in Canada. Many educators may have wanted to contest the point, but often lack the student outcomes data that could tell a different story of that student experience.

Telling a better story

Jamie Arrowsmith, director of Universities UK International believes, 鈥淲e need a new narrative around international higher education and the global role of universities. It鈥檚 about foregrounding the academic, social, and cultural benefits that come from internationalisation, and bringing those to the fore in the public discourse and public policy.鈥

鈥淭he availability of data and evidence is crucial for making the case for international education,鈥 agrees Dr Fanta Aw, executive director and CEO of NAFSA. As international education increasingly works to link student mobility to larger economic goals, the necessity of data to help address skills gaps and meet labour market demands is increasingly obvious.

鈥淭he fact that we can cite that one in four of the United States鈥 billion-dollar start-ups has been founded by former international students is powerful,鈥 says Dr Aw. 鈥淲e can show that 42% of the major companies making advances in AI have been established by former international students. That鈥檚 important. We use this data to prove the value of international education.鈥

Nick Miller, chief marketing officer of QA Higher Education, agrees. 鈥淲e must be more deliberate about the types of provisions that feed the employment opportunities of our economies,鈥 he says.

Beyond meeting student and economic needs, data-based narratives are essential for effective advocacy with governments and other stakeholders. Significant policy shifts in major study destinations across the past year have emphasised the sector鈥檚 vital need for stable policy. 鈥淚f the policy doesn鈥檛 match the rhetoric about welcoming international students, particularly around immigration, it creates a disconnect,鈥 says Anne Marie Graham, chief executive of UK Council for International Student Affairs (UKCISA).

International education can do more to advocate for the policies that enable student mobility. And it should do more. 鈥淚f we are not proactive in shaping policy then others will make a policy for us in a way that’s not always as well informed as it could be,鈥 says Arnold Persoon, who has served as a board member of the European Association for International Education.

The sentiment is echoed by Bobby Mehta, pro vice-chancellor (global engagement) at the University of Portsmouth. Highlighting the need for collaboration, Mr Mehta says, 鈥淎s a sector, as an ecosystem, we must really work together to give the assurances to governments that international education is managing and delivering contributions to society. This is essential to creating the conditions for a stable policy environment.鈥

To be effective, those assurances need evidence. They need to be grounded in data. 鈥淒ata allow us to show how policy changes impact the sector, and to advise on protecting it,鈥 says Rachel MacSween, director of partnerships at IDP.

Ms MacSween points out international growth strategies are at risk even before migration policies change. 鈥淥ur data show that international student demand for a country often starts to decline well before any policy changes. That is typically driven by negative public feelings or rhetoric, which policies then tend to respond to.鈥

鈥淎nti-immigration and nationalism is rising in several parts of the world,鈥 adds Professor Sarah Todd, vice president (global) for Griffith University. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 a challenge that we really need to think about as an international education community, regardless of where we live.鈥

鈥淭here is a stereotyped image of what an international student looks like, who they are and how much money they have,鈥 says Professor Todd. 鈥淚t reflects neither what we鈥檙e doing as education providers nor the role of recruitment agencies. So how do we ensure international students are seen as a benefit to the communities they live in, regardless of what countries are doing on migration? As education providers, we have a role to play in that. I think we’ve all got a little bit of branding and reputation enhancement to do.鈥

Dr Aw points back to evidence-based insights as critical. 鈥淭he idea that students from Africa are not of as good quality as those from another part of the world is simply not true,鈥 she says. 鈥淒ata show that students from diverse regions, like Africa, often excel academically, with strong graduation rates and job placements. Disaggregating data debunks these misconceptions and proves that quality is not tied to geography.”

A call to action

The call for better data to inform accurate narratives that generate support for international education is clear. Institutions can start by joining the conversations to explore opportunities for improvements and collaboration. They can examine their internal data and take deliberate steps to improve data collection, analysis, and communication. Mr Mehta urges for greater openness in the sector. He says, 鈥淭he more transparent we are in these areas, the better. Unifying as an industry to make the case will give education leaders the space to focus on our individual institutions, putting energy into the subject areas and the research that we specialise in.鈥

鈥淲e cannot do this work without making the case, and we can never stop making the case for international education,鈥 concludes Dr Aw. By focusing on transparency and collaboration, institutions can lay the groundwork for a more coherent and comprehensive approach to data collection at both national and international levels.

When parsed by factors such as field of study and country of origin, these indicators will enable the sector to tell a clearer and more compelling story at the institutional, national, and international levels. A story of international student success and the broader benefits of global education. And a story that is fundamental to shaping a sustainable future.

We should all begin this work today.

For additional background, please see:

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Is employability still the holy grail for the new generation of international students? /2024/09/is-employability-still-the-holy-grail-for-the-new-generation-of-international-students/ Wed, 11 Sep 2024 21:27:31 +0000 /?p=44018 The following is a guest post from Nannette Ripmeester. Nannette is the Director at Expertise in Labour Mobility (ELM) and founder of CareerProfessor.works. She serves as Director Performance Benchmarking, leading the International Student Barometer (ISB) for Etio in Europe and North America. The simple answer to the question raised in the title is yes. Whether…

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The following is a guest post from Nannette Ripmeester. Nannette is the Director at (ELM) and founder of . She serves as Director Performance Benchmarking, leading the International Student Barometer (ISB) for in Europe and North America.

The simple answer to the question raised in the title is yes. Whether it is from the perspective of the student, the higher education institution, or society at large, employability matters. In fact, it matters big time. But what we mean with employability might sometimes be less clear. To me personally, it means maximising the talents of every individual who studies at our institutions 鈥 does that sound impossible? No, I believe it is attainable provided we offer what we promise, and we are transparent about what we can and cannot do. Managing expectations is key, even if it means telling students that simply studying abroad is not going to do the trick.

The shows that for the past five years 鈥淔uture career impact鈥 has topped the list at 96% as the primary reason why international students choose a higher education institution (HEI).

Study choice is not driven by country reputation (although important, it only scored #7) or institution reputation (#3) but by the impact it will have on a graduate鈥檚 career. Given that this latest ISB is based on 192,581 student responses, including 122,975 international students studying at 155 institutions in 24 countries, it seems safe to say employability is the key driver of choice for a vast majority of students. This is underlined by the fact that 鈥楨arning potential鈥 is in 5th place (out of 20 answer options). Although over a longer period, the importance of earnings has increased, in comparison with last year鈥檚 ISB data it has declined slightly in importance. It is too early yet to see a clear trend in that respect, but important enough to note if we think about what we are trying to market to the next generations of students.

Employability is not only a driving force behind study choice but also key for recommendation of the study experience (together with course organisation (!) and quality of lectures). Hence, it is evident that from the start of the student journey that higher education institutions need to work on graduate career outcomes, an area where institutions in Europe lag by 9% compared to the global benchmark.

Nevertheless, the European higher education sector has the Erasmus+ programme, and the benefits of study abroad with respect to graduate employability seem obvious as indicated by two Erasmus Impact Studies (2014 and 2019). But life is not that simple, study abroad is not creating employability on its own. Students need to be provided with the support to help them 鈥渦npack鈥 what they have gained while being abroad. For higher education to make study abroad work in building graduate employability it is essential to understand the that are gained on mobility and how these contribute to career prospects of mobile students.

However, when we asked employers if they recruit students , the picture becomes slightly more mixed. There is no guarantee that study abroad in itself makes someone employable 鈥 there is more needed to make that happen. For starters, a graduate should be able to explain what they have gained while being abroad and how these skills can support them in their new role. When graduates can unpack what they have gained abroad, employers become keener in hiring that person. But when that graduate can 鈥榬epackage鈥 their skills in the language of a hiring manager (word of warning: there is no one-size-fits-all approach – this may differ per sector and per country), an employer is more likely to be interested in that graduate. After all, study abroad provides, by its very nature, situations where people develop the skills sought after by the future world of work.

Now graduate outcomes are not the sole reason for either providing higher education or for offering study abroad, but if our students can use the experiences, we provide them with to become more employable, we have done an important part of our job: creating talents for the future.

What can institutions and providers do to support this quest for employability? Take employability skills seriously. Globalise your curricula, build in global orientation, and skills training because that career workshop at the end of a study programme will not be enough to create employable graduates. And please realise that not all international students will stay in their host country. Many will return to their home countries or might consider another country for a while. Maybe it all starts with the understanding that for recruitment of new students, you need to start at the end of the student journey by taking steps to ensure better graduate outcomes for your students.

For additional background, please see:

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How diverse is the international student population in leading study abroad destinations? /2024/08/how-diverse-is-the-international-student-population-in-leading-study-abroad-destinations/ Wed, 28 Aug 2024 19:27:36 +0000 /?p=43915 The last time we looked in on the distribution of nationalities in four top study destinations, we reported that in 2019 鈥 i.e., just before the pandemic 鈥 Australia (70%) and Canada (67%) were the most reliant on their Top 5 student source countries, the UK was the least (45%), and the US (63%) held…

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The last time we looked in on the distribution of nationalities in four top study destinations, we reported that in 2019 鈥 i.e., just before the pandemic 鈥 Australia (70%) and Canada (67%) were the most reliant on their Top 5 student source countries, the UK was the least (45%), and the US (63%) held the middle ground.

What has happened in the years since? How do other destinations compare? We look at recent foreign enrolment figures to find out.

Australia: Top 5 markets in 2023

  1. China: 166,420
  2. India: 126,490
  3. Nepal: 62,380
  4. Colombia: 39,725
  5. Philippines: 35,590

Of the 786,890 international students enrolled across education sectors in Australia in 2023, just over half (55%) were from Top 5 sending countries. This is a marked decrease from Australia鈥檚 70% reliance in 2019. Australian institutions are clearly focusing on expanding recruitment campaigns across a longer list of source markets.

Canada: Top 5 Markets in 2023

  1. India: 427,085
  2. China: 101,150
  3. Philippines: 48,870
  4. Nigeria: 45,965
  5. France: 26,980

The total international student population in Canada across sectors in 2023 was 1,040,985. The share of Top 5 sending countries was 62% 鈥 down from 67% in 2019. This reflects a strong and much-needed effort among Canadian institutions to diversify, especially beyond India and China.

UK: Top 5 markets in 2022/23

  1. India: 173,190
  2. China: 154,260
  3. Nigeria: 72,355
  4. Pakistan: 34,690
  5. US: 22,540

Students from the UK鈥檚 Top 5 sending markets accounted for 60% of the 758,855 international students enrolled in UK universities in 2022/23 鈥 up significantly from 45% in 2019. Some of this increased concentration is attributable to a surge in students from India and Nigeria applying to and enrolling in UK universities.

US: Top 5 markets in 2023

  1. China: 289,525
  2. India: 268,925
  3. South Korea: 43,845
  4. Canada: 27,875
  5. Vietnam: 21,900

There were 1,057,190 international students in US colleges and universities in 2022/23. Students from the Top 5 sending markets accounted for 62% of the total international student population 鈥 essentially stable since 2019 (63%).

Other destinations are less dependent on the Top 5

As you can see in the table below, less than half of foreign students in higher education in Ireland, France, and Germany are from those destinations鈥 Top 5 markets. In France and Germany, the Top 5 markets represent only 34% and 35%, respectively, of all international students.

The top 5 markets as a percentage of total foreign enrolment for top study destinations. Australia numbers are all sectors, Canada numbers are international students in programmes of 6+ months, while Ireland, France, Germany, and UK are higher education only.

About 7 in 10 students in the 鈥淏ig Four鈥 are from Top 10 markets

Drilling further into the data, we see more consistency across Australia, Canada, the UK, and the US regarding the proportion of students from Top 10 markets. In this exercise, the UK emerges as the least reliant on Top 10 countries (68%) based on 2022/23 data, but only by a small margin. In Canada, 72% of international students were from the Top 10 sending countries in 2023, while in the US and , the proportions were 70% and 71% in 2023, respectively.

And what of China and India?

Chinese and Indian students are integral to the viability of international education sectors across leading destinations. In 2023, more than half of international students in Canada and the US were from India or China, and Canada is particularly reliant on Indian students (41%).

  • Australia: China (21%) + India (16%) = 37%
  • Canada: India (41%) + China (10%) = 51%
  • UK: India (23%) + China (20%) = 43%
  • US: China (27%) + India (25%) = 52%

Diversification under pressure

The most recent international education strategies published by the and governments identify diversification of student source markets as a top goal. As the data profiled in this article show, Australian and Canadian institutions made significant progress from 2019 to 2023 towards that goal, supported by welcoming immigration policies.

Time will tell whether educators in those countries, as well as the UK, can continue to distribute their foreign enrolment across an expanded list of countries given new rules affecting their recruitment activities.

Earlier this year, it became clear that some Australian institutions were adjusting their recruitment targets because:

  1. Certain student source countries are associated with a high rate of visa refusal.
  2. Institutions face penalties if they extend too many offers of admission to students who are then deemed to be unsuitable by immigration officials.

Several Australian institutions rescinded offers of admission to students they believed would be refused a visa, while others limited the list of countries from which students could apply.

In 2024, some of the emerging markets that contributed the most to diversity in Australia and Canada (e.g., Nigeria, Nepal, Pakistan) are the ones most challenged by new rules in 2024. For example, the following screen shot from the shows that countries experiencing the lowest visa approval rates up till April 2024 include Pakistan, India, and Nepal 鈥 all Top 10 markets for Australian educators.

University student visa approval rates for Australia, year to date April 2024. Approval rates for students from some Southeast Asian countries are under 50%. Source: Sunday Morning Herald

In Canada, the average study permit approval rate for international students fell from 55% in 2022 to 50% between January and April 2024. It dropped to 32% for Ghanaian students (12 percentage points lower than in 2023) and to 16% for Nigerian students (16 percentage points lower). Still, reports that IRCC data for the first half of 2024 indicate that:

鈥淪tudents from Ghana will be the largest contingent after India: 3,329 study permits have already been issued. Students from Nigeria will likely be the second largest contingent after India as 3,028 permits have already been issued. Chinese students will likely make up the third largest contingent after India while the students from the Philippines are likely to be the fourth largest contingent.鈥

If this prediction holds true, this could lead to a significant reshaping of Canada鈥檚 international student population. In 2023, for example, Ghana was Canada鈥檚 20th top student source country.

For additional background, please see:

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