That scale of operations provides Coursera with an interesting perspective on global skills development trends, many of which are reflected in the recently released .

Among its key findings, the report highlights the importance of micro-credentials for building and maintaining an agile workforce. “By 2030, an estimated 92 million jobs will be displaced, while 170 million new ones will be created—a net gain of 78 million roles,” says the report. “Eighty-five percent of employers say they need to upskill their workforce just to keep pace, and 70% plan to hire talent with new capabilities in areas like data science, cloud computing, and GenAI. This transformation means micro-credentials are more vital than ever for establishing skills and career readiness.”

Just over nine in ten employers (91%) say that employees with micro credentials demonstrate better command of core competencies. A similar proportion of employees (94%) with micro credentials say the qualifications have accelerated their career development and allowed them to be more competitive in a quickly changing labour market.

Coursera reports that those patterns are playing out within its own enrolment base with “positive growth” in Professional Certificate enrolments in all global regions, including a 37% increase in North America (the highest globally) and 36% growth in the Middle East and North Africa year-over-year.

The report highlights as well the surging demand in some quickly expanding and evolving fields of work, notably Artificial Intelligence and Cybersecurity.

The report says of the former: “In 2023, early adopters flocked to GenAI, with approximately one person per minute enrolling in a GenAI course on Coursera – a rate that rose to eight per minute in 2024. Since then, GenAI has continued to see exceptional growth, with global enrolment in GenAI courses surging 195% year-over-year—maintaining its position as one of the most rapidly growing skill domains on our platform. To date, Coursera has recorded over 8 million GenAI enrolments, with 12 learners per minute signing up for GenAI content in 2025 across our catalog of nearly 700 GenAI courses.”

Employer surveys over that same period highlight the competitive advantage for candidates with GenAI skills, with labour market demand for roles in AI technology expected to expand by another 40% within the next four years. “Mastering AI fundamentals – from prompt engineering to large
language model (LLM) applications – is essential to remaining competitive in today’s rapidly evolving economy,” concludes the report.

Following growing worldwide concerns around data security and data protection, a similar pattern is playing out across Coursera’s Cybersecurity catalogue. Year-over-year growth in Cybersecurity courses on the platform reached 106% in Latin America, 20% in Europe, and 14% in Asia Pacific in 2025. But the report nevertheless identifies a significant and widespread labour market gap in this area: “Globally, nearly five million additional cybersecurity professionals are needed, and
two-thirds of employers cite skill gaps as a barrier to adopting emerging technology. Security
Management Specialist ranks among the top five fastest-growing roles, yet less than half of organizations feel ‘highly prepared’ to defend against AI-driven cyber threats.”

Skills training alongside degrees

“Two-thirds of employers regard skill shortages as a major barrier to business growth,” notes the report, “and in countries like Germany, unfilled vacancies cost an estimated US$339 billion (1.3% of GDP).”

The vast majority of employers surveyed by Coursera say that they have adopted or are exploring skills-based hiring – an approach that focuses on skills qualifications in combination with traditional degrees.

Those broad patterns carry with them some important implications for international educators including the need to demonstrate career linkages and outcomes at every level of study, the opportunity to combine more traditional qualifications with alternate credentials (including micro credentials), and the potential of combining more conventional modes of delivery on campus with remote learning or transnational education in order to support graduates in continuing skills training.

For additional background, please see:

• “Are employers recognising alternative credentials in hiring decisions?“
• “New study highlights the expanding landscape of microcredentials“
• “The growing importance of non-degree credentials“

The post The surging demand for skills training in a rapidly changing global economy appeared first on şÚÁĎąŮÍř Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

Meanwhile, there were 758,855 international students studying at higher education institutions in the UK in 2022/23. The onshore number remained higher that year, but maybe not for long. In part because of tighter immigration settings, visa issuances have been trending down this year and the in-country total is therefore likely to be lower the next time enrolments are tallied. By contrast, UK TNE is almost certainly destined to grow after a healthy 8.8% increase last year in the number of students enrolled in degrees delivered online, in-country, or through partnerships abroad.

Offshore/online delivery has several benefits for international students, including that it is less expensive than travelling for in-campus study in the UK, and that because many elite UK universities participate in TNE, students can access the prestige they want from a higher education degree while remaining in their own region.

Regional breakdown

The dominant region for UK TNE is Asia, which is responsible for half (51.5%) of all enrolments (312,295). Europe is next with 110,750, followed by the Middle East (82,930) Africa (64,790), and North America (29,455). There are also about 3,500 students in South America and 2,930 in Australasia.

The top five markets for UK TNE providers are China, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, Singapore, and Egypt, accounting for a collective 40% of all UK higher education TNE activity. Sri Lanka displaced Malaysia in second place in 2022/23 with 18% y-o-y growth. Malaysia was the only country in the top five to report a decline.

Outside of the top five, the UAE is the fastest-growing TNE market, posting 20.4% year-over-year growth in 2022/23.

Move toward partnerships

There are several categories of TNE, including branch campuses, distance/online learning, joint/dual degrees, and faculty exchanges. But going into 2025, there is a trend emerging: governments open to UK TNE are more interested in internationalising their higher education systems through partnerships than in sending their own students to UK branch campuses.

As reported in , at a British Council “Deep Dialogues” session at the November 2024 Manchester Conference – hosted by the UK’s (QAA) for Higher Education and the consultancy Education Insight – university and government attendees from 19 countries were asked about the purpose of TNE in their nation. Here are the top five answers, in order:

• “Internationalisation of domestic higher education system”
• “Enhancing the quality of the higher education system”
• “Widening access to higher education”
• “Increasing diversity in higher education”
• “Attracting international talent”

Professor Vangelis Tsiligkiris, founder of the TNE (international) Hub based at Nottingham Trent University in the UK, told University World News:

“The top four answers show why we need to talk about equitable partnerships and the need for host countries to gain something from TNE partnerships. That’s not always clear to the exporting institutions and it should be embedded, but isn’t always, into collaboration.”

Still, partnerships are on the rise. In 2022/23, UK TNE programmes delivered via overseas partner organisations enrolled 155,025 international students, compared with 138,090 in 2021/22. And in 2022/23, TNE provided by “other arrangement including collaborative provision” enrolled 252,405, compared with 225,675 the previous year.

For additional background, please see:

• Attend . A unique online event that brings together
  e-learning and hybrid education providers, with şÚÁĎąŮÍř-screened student recruitment agents.
• “Universities UK releases blueprint for higher and international education”

The post Continued growth reported for UK transnational education enrolments appeared first on şÚÁĎąŮÍř Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

Which countries offer the most online ETPs?

The vast majority of online bachelor’s and master’s programmes are offered in Australia, Canada, UK, and US (92%). The UK and US are by far the biggest suppliers of the four, offering thousands of ETPs versus under 500 in Australia and Canada. Together, the rate of online ETP expansion in Australia, Canada, UK, and US since 2019 is 126%.

The supply of online ETPs is increasing quite quickly outside of the Big Four as well, with a doubling of growth since 2019 (from 623 to 1,212 in 2023, an increase of 94%).

Megan Agnew, IELTS Global Partnerships at British Council said:

“This report highlights that, while the Big Four markets continue to dominate the landscape of online programmes, the overall shifts in English as a Medium of Education provides international students with more choice and flexibility than ever before. Ensuring standardised frameworks in both policy and assessment, whether in on-campus or online programmes, is critical in ensuring students can access valuable educational experiences in their chosen location.”

While interest in online programmes dissipated somewhat after the pandemic – because international students embraced the opportunity of learning face-to-face for the first time in months (or even years) – it is picking up again. International students are faced with high costs of travel and rising costs of study/living in leading destination countries. For these reasons as well as more restrictive immigration environments in Australia, Canada, and the UK, online learning is becoming a real option for students who might otherwise have preferred to travel.

Another important audience for ETPs are students who like blended learning. found that 65% wanted to retain some aspect of online learning, citing reasons such as flexibility and convenience.

Top levels and subjects

Growth is occurring at both the undergraduate and graduate levels, and as shown below, this is expected to continue through 2026.

At the bachelor’s level, Applied Sciences and Education & Training are expanding the fastest of all online ETPs (+1,000% and +700%, respectively), while arts and design-related programmes, law, and journalism are either stagnant or declining. At the master’s level, the fastest growth is occurring in Computer Science & IT (+181%), Business & Management (+137%), and Hospitality, Leisure & Sports (+135%), while provision of Education & Training, Journalism & Media, and Law online programmes is declining.

Expansion outside the Big Four

Europe’s Higher Education Area (EHEA) accounts for 68% of non-Big Four online ETPs, with Germany, Ireland, Spain, and Switzerland the leaders. Germany, in particular, is quickly catching up to Canada and Australia: in 2019 Germany offered 34 ETPs, while in 2023 it offered 204. Canada offered 271 and Australia 471 In 2023.

Provision is also growing in regions including Africa and the Middle East – notably in South Africa, the UAE, and Jamaica – while online options are notably scarce in Asia.

Online learning as a complement, not a threat

Edwin van Rest, cofounder and CEO of Studyportals, said: 

“We clearly see that these online programmes primarily give access to a different segment of students who may otherwise miss out on higher education: adult learners, flexible learners, people with different learning styles/preferences. It is a misconception that online programmes are a threat or a competitor to on-campus programmes. Online education is poised to drive a more inclusive and dynamic future for international higher education, stimulate Lifelong Learning and increase the flexibility of labour markets.

While Online English-taught programmes are still predominantly a niche strategy for only a part of institutions, and is more developed in the Big Four destinations, it is good to see other markets starting to catch up with phenomenal growth in relative terms. With anti-immigration sentiment rising in many markets, it is also a pathway for institutions to make their internationalisation strategy less dependent on visa and/or accommodation restrictions.”

For additional background, please see:

• Join . An online event created exclusively to bring together e-learning and hybrid education providers, with şÚÁĎąŮÍř-screened student recruitment agents.
• “Number of English-taught degree programmes rises by 22% from 2021-2024“

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This represents a significant reversal of fortune. Four years after 2U – an online programme manager (OPM) – went public in 2014, its stock traded at close to US$100. This year, it has been hovering at or under US$1 due to signs of trouble – including some universities ending their contracts.

Following 2U’s announcement of its doubt about remaining “going concern,” major investment firms downgraded the stock; Goldman Sachs dropped its coverage of 2U entirely.

Background

The worsening outlook for 2U reflects a weakening role for OPMs in the global education market. By way of background, OPMs help universities and colleges bring their programmes online. They typically offer a broad basket of services – everything from strategic advice and instructional design to technology and systems to recruitment, retention, and student support. Universities remain responsible for core academic functions, notably admissions, teaching, and curriculum. OPMs typically also cover the upfront costs of converting an existing university programme for online delivery, in return for which they receive a portion of the resulting programme revenues.

OPMs’ heyday occurred in the COVID-19 pandemic amid the rush to online learning as face-to-face teaching was severely restricted or ended while infection-prevention measures were most strongly and widely enforced. Universities and other institutions needed extensive support to shift their business model, and OPMs represented the most efficient way of doing so for many of them.

For 2U, the pandemic seemed to be an ideal time to expand its reach, and it famously bought the online learning platform edX in 2021, giving it:

• A combined portfolio of more than 3,500 offerings from 230 top universities and corporations;
• Access to edX’s 39 million users all over the world.

The bet was that by buying edX’s existing audience, 2U could reduce the cost of acquiring students overall. 2U took on debt for the acquisition, but revenue gains did not follow to offset the carrying costs of that debt. Quite the opposite: revenue declined steadily after the acquisition and staff were laid off.

2U was not the only OPM facing serious challenges in 2021 and 2022 as (1) demand for online learning abated due to the elimination of COVID-19 travel restrictions, (2) universities became more interested in and adept at running their own online programming and delivery.

Across the board, universities began to ask for shorter contracts with OPM providers and more share of revenue – or no contracts at all:

• In 2022, Pearson and Arizona State University (ASU) . The ASU account composed about one-third of Pearson’s OPM revenue at the time. Pearson to a private equity firm.
• In 2023, University of South California (USC) ended its relationship with 2U by paying US$40 million, and 2U’s stock .

Scrutiny of OPMs increases

Adding to OPMs’ current challenge is momentum in the US for the Biden administration to “crack down” on relationships between colleges and OPMs. There is a formal review underway of the legislation allowing colleges to pay OPMs commission based on the amount of tuition revenue they help to generate. Fuelling the review is a worry that OPMs’ marketing to students is diluting the perceived value of higher education and encouraging students enrol in “low-value” programmes instead of degrees.

Online learning participation dips

The number of US students enrolled in at least one online course dropped from 57% in 2021/22 to 53% in 2022/23 according to National Center for Education Statistics data released in January 2024. Participation remains higher than before the pandemic, but industry experts say detailed data shows that students who were exclusively enrolled in online courses are more likely to be pivoting to entirely in-person classes than to a blend of online/in-person instruction.

At the same time, participation in online learning dipped by 2 percentage points in Europe between 2021 and 2022.

Despite the slight dip in online course enrolments, however, the fact remains that there are millions of students worldwide who require more affordable options than in-person study abroad. The online learning market may be evolving, but it is certainly here to stay.

For additional background, please see:

• “Major MOOC provider edX acquired by online programme manager 2U”
• “Online programme manager (OPM) market under pressure this year”

The post Former edtech unicorn’s stock price plunges as universities take DIY approach to online learning appeared first on şÚÁĎąŮÍř Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

Compared to the 81% who said that that was their preferred mode of study in August 2021, only 71% said they preferred in-person study at an overseas campus in the August 2023 survey.

The percentage of students who said they wanted to begin their studies online in their home country, and then complete them at an overseas campus, was virtually the same between the 2021 (18%) and 2023 (17%) surveys. And the same was true for those who said they preferred to study entirely online (10% in 2021 and 11% in 2023).

The 2023 survey cycle, however, found a marked difference in the percentage of students who said they wanted to pursue their studies at a local campus in their home country that was either a branch campus or accredited partner of an overseas institution. Only 10% said that this was their preferred mode of study in 2021 but that rose to 17% in August 2023 for accredited partner study and 15% for branch campus study.

The survey results make it clear as well that students still aspire to work abroad or migrate after completing an international qualification in their home country. When asked what were the most important aspects of earning an international qualification at home, students ranked the following factors from highest to lowest priority.

• Paying lower tuition fees compared to overseas study
• Ability to use the international qualification as a means to migrate after graduation
• Access to post-study work rights after graduation
• Access to a designated study hub/local learning centre
• Ability to study with a higher-ranked institution than would be possible through overseas study

The key takeaway for policy makers, IDP concludes, is that, “Students considering or enrolled at branches of international institutions still want some perks like post-study work rights or immigration pathways.”

The 10% decline in students considering in-person overseas study (since the August 2021 survey) appear to be tied to another important finding from Emerging Futures 4: more than half (56%) of the student-respondents said that the recent increases in cost of living overseas have made them reassess their plans to study abroad.

The survey results suggest that the answer to those cost of living concerns, for some students at least, is that they are more open to studying at a partner or branch campus in their home countries.

For additional background, please see:

• “The cost of living: A closer look at inflation and foreign exchange trends in key student markets“
• “Global survey shows rising costs of living are significantly affecting international student mobility“

The post Survey finds students more open to branch campus study appeared first on şÚÁĎąŮÍř Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

However, a new report from Times Higher Education (THE) and Studyportals makes it clear that Indian students are pursuing their studies in many more countries worldwide. notes that, outside of the four leading destinations, countries with more than 5,000 higher education students from India include Bangladesh, the UAE, China, Georgia, Germany, Ireland, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, New Zealand, Oman, Philippines, Russia, and Saudi Arabia.

In fact, there is some indication – largely in the form of website traffic data from Studyportals platforms – that Indian student interest in some top destinations peaked over 2021 and 2022 and has been trending downward since.

To say the least, this is a noteworthy observation. While not totally indicative of the larger pattern of Indian student demand, it does reflect an important trend in terms of where Indian student interest is shifting at an early stage of their course search and planning for study abroad – that is, at the point where they are searching for programme options on a Studyportals website. That type of search activity is an early indicator of future trends as it reflects student intent at a point roughly 12 to 18 months in advance of the start of the students’ study programme.

That bit of context sets us up for the chart below, in which we see that Studyportals is reporting lower volumes of pageviews (for undergraduate and graduate programmes combined) for Germany, the UK, Canada, and the US through June 2023.

“Whilst, business and management, computer science and engineering related disciplines are still the most popular the report shows rising interest in studying hospitality, leisure and sports,” adds an accompanying release from Studyportals, in commenting on trends in terms of fields of study. “Business, computer science and engineering are also the most sought-after for master’s students, with natural sciences and medical-related programmes also in demand.”

The TNE opportunity

Drawing on HESA data, the report observes the dramatic increase in Indian enrolments in the UK, with overall growth of 543% between 2017/18 and 2021/22 largely driven by post-graduate students. That sharp upward trends, says the paper, positions India as “arguably the most important market for UK university international recruitment.”

This key sending market, however, is also underperforming in terms of transnational education (TNE) enrolments. TNE is a broad spectrum of activity, which includes joint or dual degree programmes, licensing arrangements, and even international branch campuses.

It is also, for some destination countries at least, a huge component of total education exports. The UK, for example, reported 553,190 TNE enrolments in 2021/22, with most of those in China, Malaysia, Singapore, Sri Lanka, and Egypt.

The THE/Studyportals paper points out that in contrast, “India has traditionally had lower rates of [TNE enrolment]. Previous barriers to growing TNE provision in India including perceived over-regulation and lack of clarity about collaboration requirements. However, the release of the National Education Policy in 2020 signalled the Indian government’s intention to encourage greater collaboration between Indian universities and the rest of the world and ensure clearer guidelines and incentives for foreign universities to deliver higher education in India.”

Within South Asia, Sri Lanka has historically been the leading market for UK TNE. The chart below provides a stark illustration of the gap between Sri Lankan TNE enrolments and those of some much larger markets, notably India.

“Although India still lags considerably behind Sri Lanka, there was a 43% increase in UK TNE enrolments in 2021/22, making it the fastest growing market for TNE in the sub-region.” notes the paper. “With encouraging regulatory changes having been made in 2022 to encourage foreign university partnerships, and potentially more regarding branch campuses and other forms of TNE in 2023/24, there is every possibility of this trend continuing.”

“A key question that emerges from this research is whether the falling demand in studying abroad might instead be captured by studying foreign degrees within India, aligning with the Indian governments ambition to increase transnational education in India,” adds Dr Ishan Cader, THE’s Director of Consultancy.

Either way, that large gap between Sri Lanka, a country with a population a fraction of that of India’s, and India in TNE enrolments suggests a considerable opportunity for foreign institutions to expand their provision in the sub-continent. A 2021 analysis from HolonIQ estimates that for every student who goes abroad, there are another four who would like to study outside their home countries but are unable to do so – perhaps because of family or career commitments or because they lack the qualifications or funds to support studies abroad.

If that estimate is even half true for India, then the scale of opportunity that is being spotlighted by the THE/Studyportals report is massive indeed.

For additional background, please see:

• “UK transnational education expands at fastest rate ever“
• “Forecast projects 1.8 million Indian students abroad by 2024“
• “What about the 20 million students who didn’t study abroad last year?“

The post New report maps the scale of TNE opportunity in India appeared first on şÚÁĎąŮÍř Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

was run by Jisc, a UK-based non-profit that describes itself as a “digital, data and technology agency focused on tertiary education, research and innovation.” Respondents were collectively enrolled in 40 universities in the UK that represent 13% of total higher education providers in the country.

Of the survey sample, 30% of students were international. The survey ran from October 2022 through April 2023.

Jisc notes that “it is clear that [digital learning] now forms an integral part of the higher education learning experience.”

8 in 10 pleased with their online experience

Most students (81%) considered their online learning experience to be good or exceptional (comprising “good,” “excellent,” and “best imaginable” responses).

The most common elements of students’ online learning environment were:

• Recordings of live sessions (76%)
• Recorded/pre-recorded content and resources (70%)
• An online assessment/testing platform (60%)
• Live streams of lectures (49%)
• A virtual learning environment (49%)

Supports appreciated by international students

Students were asked about a range of tools and features that help them to make the most of their learning environment, including captions, spelling/writing support, and transcripts.

International students were more likely than other students to say they use captions, spelling/writing support, and transcripts than other students were. It makes sense: language supports for international students should be relevant to both the in-person and online learning experience they have. Given that learning environments are now often hybrid, the finding that international students use assistive technologies more than other students do is an important one.

In general (across all students), 57% used at least one assistive technology or device, and these were the most-used according to student responses:

• Captions (28%)
• Spelling/writing support (26%)
• Screen reader (17%)
• Transcripts (16%)
• Dictation (15%)
• Screen magnification (10%)

Hybrid learning is the norm

While more than half of students (53%) said they prefer learning mainly on campus (in classes), more than a third (36%) said they like a mix of in-person and online learning (hybrid). Another 11% prefer to learn mainly online.

In terms of actual experience, just under two-thirds of students (64%) said they were mainly on campus, with 26% learning in a hybrid manner and 11% learning mainly online. Last year, only 28% of students surveyed were learning mainly on campus with other students.

Barriers to students’ online experience

Though students did report high satisfaction with digital learning, they also pointed to several issues affecting their ability to learn. The top issues were poor wifi connection (54%) and lack of a private area to work (36%). Smaller, but significant, numbers of students also reported having no suitable device (27%) and not having a safe area to work (19%). Those proportions suggest that students from more marginalised or poor backgrounds could use more support in accessing suitable technologies and secure and reassuring places to work.

That hard-to-replicate feeling

Students were overall very pleased with the effectiveness of online learning, especially its convenience (83%) and the way it allows students to progress in their studies (71%). The only area where fewer than half of students were satisfied was feeling like they were part of a community of staff and students; only 44% said they felt this sense of community.

Most feel institutions provide good supports

Nearly three-quarters of respondents (71%) said their university was doing an “above-average” job of helping them to learn effectively online. Jisc notes: “Responses to this question have markedly improved since 2020/21 when 60% of students rated the support offered to be above average.”

Room for improvement

More than 7,000 students responded to an open-ended question asking them to name one thing that could help students to use digital technologies more effectively. We highly recommend that institutions and schools check out , but we’ll also single out a few student recommendations here because they are so important:

• “At the start of the academic year show us how to engage with the software used on our courses. And make it so that we can rewatch these anytime and offer refresher sessions throughout the year”
• “Sometimes I find there is an overwhelming amount of information or information is too hard to find and is hidden behind too many links or pathways.”
• “Consider developing support for transferable and in-demand workplace skills, such as coding, marketing and graphic design.”
• “Offer accreditation for skills developed as part of or in addition to a course of study.”
• “Proactively check-in with students to identify additional support needs.”
• “Offer a variety of options for when students need help, including video tutorials, step-by- step guides, refresher sessions and the option to talk to a member of staff.”

For additional background, please see:

• “EdTech investment cooling in 2023 but growth outlook remains strong”
• “Online programme manager (OPM) market under pressure this year”
• “şÚÁĎąŮÍř Podcast: Exploring the synergies between online learning and international education”

The post Survey finds students are becoming more comfortable and satisfied with online learning appeared first on şÚÁĎąŮÍř Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

One recent analysis from HolonIQ, for example, pegs the global online programme management (OPM) market alone at US$5.7 billion as of 2019 and projects that the segment will grow to US$13.3 billion as of 2025.

By way of background, OPMs help universities and colleges bring their programmes online. They typically offer a broad basket of services – everything from strategic advice and instructional design to technology and systems to recruitment, retention, and student support. Universities remain responsible for core academic functions, notably admissions, teaching, and curriculum. OPMs typically also cover the upfront costs of converting an existing university programme for online delivery, in return for which they receive a portion of the resulting programme revenues.

But the OPM sector has been under pressure over the last year and more as growth has slowed, and as more institutions, especially in the US, are challenging some conventions of the established business model.

Phil Hill is a market analyst with a focus on ed tech, and he has written extensively about some of the forces acting on the OPM segment over the last couple of years. In late 2022, he reported, based on public disclosures from leading OPM provider Wiley and 2U, that OPM contracts were now being written for shorter terms, with some ranging from five to seven years in length as opposed to the more standard length of ten years or more.

Mr Hill noted as well that revenue sharing has by far been the most common type of revenue model for OPM partnerships. In previous years, OPM providers might command 50% or more of programme revenues, but those percentages were dropping on at least deals last year, down to 30-40%, or, in the case of 2U, with stackable options ranging from 35%–60% based on the service options selected by the institution. “Market forces are changing the terms with lower share percentages and reduced contract lengths,” he added. “Not in every case, but as a general market trend.”

Part of the issue is that online enrolment in one of the largest OPM segments (graduate programmes in the US) is falling over the last two years. That flattening growth curve in the sector and downward pressure on provider revenues is now being reflected in stock prices and even in some exits from the OPM business and the part of major providers.

“Market valuations of publicly-traded OPM companies have continued to drop,” observed Mr Hill in April 2023, “with 2U/edX, Coursera, and Keypath all down 75% or more from March 2021.”

We see further evidence of this pressure on established business models in the news earlier this year that the education publisher and service provider Pearson , including its OPM business, to a private equity firm. The move comes as Pearson’s largest OPM contract, with Arizona State University, was drawing to an end as of June 2023.

In a similar vein, UK-based MOOC platform and OPM provider FutureLearn was sold to Global University Systems in December 2022

And most recently, Wiley, which, along with Pearson, 2U, and Academic Partnerships, was counted among the “Big Four” leading OPM providers, has announced that it too will now also divest its OPM business.

Another important bit of context for those high-profile exits is the looming question of increased regulation in the sector, at least in the US, where the Department of Education has indicated its intention to expand its oversight of third-party providers, and OPMs in particular. The shape and reach of that new regulation is not clear but it has sufficiently alarmed the sector that at least one major player, 2U, has taken the issue to court with a legal action that asserts, “By broadening the definition of third-party servicer, the [Department of Education aims to impose] an expansive and onerous regulatory regime on companies that facilitate online educational programming and related services for brick-and-mortar colleges and universities.”

For additional background, please see:

• “New US Department of Education guidance alarming for ed-tech and recruitment providers“
• “Demand for online learning and alternative credentials surges during COVID-19“
• “Rapid growth projected in online programme partner space through 2025“

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