The longer New Zealand’s border remained shut, the more prospective international students grew discouraged. Many got tired of waiting, choosing less preferred destinations out of necessity. A new analysis shows that the situation more than halved the value of New Zealand’s higher education sector between 2019 and 2022.

From billions to millions

Education New Zealand (ENZ), the government agency responsible for promoting New Zealand education abroad, asked the research firm EY to conduct . In 2019, the direct value of the international education sector was NZ$3.9 billion (US$2.4 billion), and the presence of international students created 6,000 jobs. In 2022 – the last year of the border closure – the sector’s value had dropped to NZ$800 million (US$488 million).

Once New Zealand’s fourth largest export sector, the industry’s pandemic losses were felt across the entire economy.

The EY report also provides the following summary of actual international enrolments by education sector as of 2019 and estimated enrolments for 2022.

Those estimates for 2022 line up reasonably well with data reported recently by national newspaper . As the following chart reflects, enrolments recovered steadily through 2023. From a low of 11,820 in May 2022, they climbed to 34,230 by August 2023 before settling at 28,725 in February 2024

Top student source markets and sub-sectors

China, India, and Japan are the top 3 markets for New Zealand educators – as they were before the pandemic. The majority of international students in New Zealand are in universities (11,145), with thousands more spread between private training establishments (6,895), polytechs (4,165), and schools (6,477). There are still more students in short courses, and students with visa-free status were not included in the total count.

An optimistic outlook

EY believes that by 2030, New Zealand’s international education sector could regain its pre-pandemic footing in terms of enrolments and value. In December 2023, New Zealand immigration officials had received 7,265 new student visa applications, similar to the volume received in December 2022 (7,481). This year, the mean visa processing time has been about 26 week days.

The full recovery of the sector is strongly supported by the current New Zealand government. National’s Tertiary Education spokesperson Penny Simmonds said in September 2023:

“New Zealand has been in recession, the cost of living continues to rise faster than wages, and mortgages are unaffordable. We need to get sectors that can provide much-needed export earnings like international education back on their feet as soon as possible.

Supporting international education to recover will boost export revenue, create job opportunities, and strengthen global connections that will drive economic growth in New Zealand.

Reviving international education is also vital for our tertiary education institutions. The revenue raised from higher international fees allows our universities, polytechnics and other tertiary institutions to provide better quality education and services while keeping costs down for domestic students.

National will make a series of sensible changes to make New Zealand a more attractive destination for international students.”

A range of benefits

ENZ asked EY to measure not just the direct economic benefits of international students, but also their broader impact on New Zealand society. If labour supply and productivity is factored in, the total contribution of international students to New Zealand’s GDP is about NZ$6 billion.

Of the research conducted by EY, ENZ’s Chief Executive, Grant McPherson, says: “This report confirms the tough time the sector has had over the past two years, highlights the contribution it made in the past, the contribution it makes beyond economic value, and tells us that it is possible to become a vibrant, sustainable and resilient sector in the future.”

Student survey shows international students are happy to have chosen New Zealand

ENZ conducted a survey of 4,755 international students from more than 70 nationalities in 2023. The International Student Experience survey found that 84% were positive about their experience, and 83% said they would recommend New Zealand as a study destination. include:

• 87% said their study experience helped encourage their curiosity and develop new ideas;
• 88% said they felt positive about the people and connections they made in New Zealand;
• 78% said that New Zealand was their first-choice destination.

Separate research conducted by Ipsos found that 75% of 1,100 New Zealanders surveyed in December 2023 believe that international students benefit New Zealand – up from only 57% in 2016.

The New Zealanders surveyed in 2023 were especially positive about international students’ economic benefits (80%) and “international students help[ing] local students learn about other cultures and ways of living and contributing to New Zealand’s cultural diversity” (81%). A third of respondents, however, were concerned that “New Zealand’s infrastructure in housing, transport and medical services is not well equipped to allow for international students.”

ENZ’s Director Insights, Marie Clark, said the results from the domestic survey were overall positive:
“International students have always been a significant contributor to regional economies. It is particularly pleasing that there is strong awareness and support of the cultural exchanges that happen when international students learn alongside New Zealand students and participate in our communities. While the research identified some challenges, the definite trend in awareness of the benefits international students bring to New Zealand is very positive for the future.”

For additional background, please see:

• “Education New Zealand shuts down its recognised agency programme”
• “New Zealand moves to active footing for student recruitment with new national strategy”

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The episode features a conversation with ���Ϲ��� CEO Markus Badde in which we explore the lasting impact the pandemic has had on all of us, and how it has changed our industry.

We conclude the episode with a closer look at Saudi Arabia in the latest stop in our “Keys to the Market” segment.

You can listen right now in the player below, and we encourage you to subscribe via your favourite podcast app in order to receive future episodes automatically.

For additional background, please see:

• “���Ϲ��� Podcast: The increasing appeal of Asian destinations in international student recruitment“

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For the year up to 5 July 2023, INZ reports a total of 53,428 student visa applications, of which 47,057 (88%) were approved. We’ll use 2018/19, the last full year before the onset of the pandemic, as our pre-COVID baseline. INZ reports 89,096 student visa applications for that year, with 82,176 (92%) approved.

This means that the current volume of approved applications represents just over 57% of that 2018/19 baseline. This is not the whole story in terms of the current level of inbound student mobility as there will be many students in New Zealand for language studies or other short-term courses who are not travelling on student visas. But it nevertheless provides an important indicator of the extent to which the foreign enrolment in the country is rebounding .

Apart from applications, INZ’s latest data (also from 5 July 2023) show that 46,680 first-time student visas were granted for 2022/23. This is in fact slightly higher than the 46,249 first-time visas granted in 2018/19, and (not surprisingly given the extended border closures) a nearly 40,000 student increase year-over-year.

Finally, INZ is also reporting on the volume of (that is, by students applying from outside of New Zealand). This captures a slightly larger portion of the year as it reports through 11 July 2023, indicating a total of 43,541 offshore applications of which 37,916 have been processed with 32,457 of those approved.

As has been the case after border reopening in most study destinations, INZ is also reporting some visa processing delays with the higher volumes this year. The agency cautions that:

“Unfortunately we have received many applications submitted only a few weeks before the student intends to commence study in New Zealand.

Students should apply for their visas around four months ahead of intended travel, and at least two months ahead of intended travel. We cannot prioritise late applications ahead of students who have applied in good time. Unfortunately, some students who apply late may miss their start date.

Please remember that students should not confirm travel bookings until the visa is granted.”

Students are also encouraged to consult when planning their programmes in New Zealand.

For additional background, please see:

• “International student visa holders up 98% in New Zealand since the border reopening“
• “New Zealand moves to active footing for student recruitment with new national strategy“
• “New Zealand opens up to international students and updates policies for post-study work rights“

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Full-year data for 2022 was by English Australia reporting a total of 94,614 students for the year (which compares to just over 169,000 in 2019) and 1,581,247 student weeks (as opposed to roughly 2.3 million weeks pre-pandemic).

That works out to about 68% of pre-COVID volumes in terms of student weeks, and 56% when comparing total student numbers.

That difference in recovery in favour of student weeks derives from a considerable increase in average length of stay last year, with that average moving from 12.5 weeks in 2021 to 16.7 weeks in 2022.

The recovery picture, however, is a bit more mixed by provider type, as we see in the chart below. VET-based ELICOS programmes (which accounted for just over half [51%] of ELICOS students in 2022) have now surpassed pre-pandemic volumes. Other provider types, including stand-alone ELICOS centres (accounted for 26% of students in 2022) and universities (20% of students last year) have more ground to travel still to reach those 2019 levels.

The other bit of nuance to factor here is the very large percentage of ELICOS students that remain enrolled offshore, studying in online or hybrid programmes. Those offshore enrolments accounted for just under half of student numbers in 2022 (49%), and just over half (51%) of all student weeks.

Where are students coming from?

Following a pattern that we began to observe at the mid-point of the year, Latin American markets continued to be the big driver of the sector’s recovery throughout 2022. Enrolments from the Americas grew by 248% year-over-year, contributed roughly 40% of all students weeks, and played an important part in boosting average length of stay across the sector (with students from the region studying in Australia for an impressive average of 20.9 weeks).

Colombia was the big mover in this respect, and sits as the #1 sending market for ELICOS providers for 2022. Brazil (#5 in 2022) and Chile (#9) were the other notable contributors in terms of Latin markets. And, as we see in the graphic below, Thailand also continued to show its strength with remarkable 727% year-over-year growth as it surged into the #3 position among top sending markets.

A strong start to the year

The sector is following up its strong 2022 performance with continued growth through the first quarter of this year.

A 9 June update from reports ELICOS commencements increased by just over 258% YTD March 2023, compared to the same period last year.

The association adds that, “Commencements from Latin America continue to dominate the YTD market performance. Colombia #1 increased by 993.7% or 7,552 additional students, and commencements from Brazil #2 increased by 574.2% or 3,491 additional students. Several other LATAM markets are in the top 15 for commencements.”

Thailand is continuing its strong growth performance as well with 2,495 additional commencements (+226% for the quarter compared to 2022), and Chinese students are returning in greater numbers this year as well with 1,063 additional students and 56% growth in commencements for Q1 2023.

For additional background, please see:

• “Surge in new students has ELICOS sector leading Australian growth for 2022“
• “Australia: Latin markets boosting ELICOS recovery this year“

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The overall trend, however, is toward growth with volumes up 18% on average compared to 2019.

Growth in Brazilian student outbound is the main takeaway from this year’s agent survey from the (Belta). The survey draws on responses from 317 agents across the country, both members of Belta and non-members, that were collected between December 2022 and April 2023.

Agents report that Brazilian demand remains overwhelmingly weighted towards language studies. But as we see in table below, there are some important shifts this year compared to 2019, especially with regard to professional courses (certificates or diplomas), which have jumped from the 5th most popular programme option in 2019 to 2nd this year.

The survey reveals that Brazilian students are primarily motivated to study abroad by their interest in having an international experience, building language skills, and experiencing a new culture. Student preferences this year are very consistent with the patterns we saw before the pandemic, with English-speaking destinations – Canada, the US, United Kingdom, Ireland, and Australia – claiming the top spots in the table of preferred destinations.

Perhaps not surprisingly, aside from any delays or difficulties in obtaining a visa, all major hurdles for students (as reported by agents) relate to rising costs this year. This reflects student or parent concerns around how the Brazilian real is performing against other major world currencies alongside rising costs of travel and costs of living across destinations this year.

Those cost concerns are reflected in the average reported spend for Brazilian students in 2022 of US$8,307 – a roughly 40% increase from the average spend reported for 2019.

That increased spending this year translated into an estimated combined total business volume of R$3.7 billion (US$760 million) for responding agents this year.

A parallel student survey, also conducted by Belta, finds that roughly two-thirds of outbound Brazilian students (64%) book their programmes through an agency. But the survey suggests as well that students rely heavily on social sources to inform their preferences and plans, including social media but also their immediate circle of friends and family.

Taken together, the findings point to continued strong demand in the Brazilian market, the importance of affordability and managing costs, the crucial role of education agents in recruiting Brazilian students, and the major influence of family and friends in shaping student choice.

For additional background, please see:

• “Outbound mobility trends for key Latin markets: Brazil, Colombia, Mexico“
• “Brazilian market showing its strength this year“
• “Brazil: Affordability will be key to unleashing demand for study abroad“

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Those rules were put in place during the pandemic as a means of allowing students to continue their studies even if they were unable or unwilling to travel to the US, and during a period where in-period instruction was widely suspended for at least part of the COVID emergency.

The new guidance from Homeland Security is in effect as of 11 May 2023. It provides that currently enrolled students may maintain their status in the US while studying remotely during the 2022/23 academic year and for any courses taken during the 2023 summer semester.

Any students continuing after summer 2023, however, as well as any new students applying for entry to the US from 11 May forward, will be subject to the normal limits in place on distance learning for purposes of qualifying for a US study visa.

The rule in question is and it states:

“For F-1 students enrolled in classes for credit or classroom hours, no more than the equivalent of one class or three credits per session, term, semester, trimester, or quarter may be counted toward the full course of study requirement if the class is taken on-line or through distance education and does not require the student’s physical attendance for classes, examination or other purposes integral to completion of the class.”

The net effect of this change is that new foreign students applying for a F-1 visa for the US must plan to return to in-person study, and the same will be true for continuing students as of September 2023.

The statement from DHS reminds us that the COVID-era policies were, “always intended as a temporary measure to allow students to continue their studies with the least disruptions as possible and did not signify or result in a permanent change to the regulations.” It advises as well that going forward, designated school officials at US institutions should not now “issue Forms I-20, ‘Certificate of Eligibility for Nonimmigrant Student Status,’ for students in new or Initial status who are outside of the United States and plan to take classes at an educational institution certified by SEVP for a programme of study that contains online components in excess of the regulatory limits.”

For additional background, please see:

• “Full-year US visa numbers show solid gains for 2022“
• “US now allows student visa applications up to one year in advance“
• “US extends COVID guidance around online and hybrid programmes for 2022/23 academic year“

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In the first quarter of 2023, international arrivals drew closer (80%) to the level they were at before the pandemic. More than 230 million tourists travelled internationally between the beginning of January and the end of March 2023, which is double the number in the same period of 2022. The Middle East saw the greatest recovery: arrivals were 15% higher than they were in 2019.

UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili said that while tourism is bouncing back nicely, new challenges have arisen in 2023 that may affect the volume of arrivals or the destinations that tourists choose.

“The start of the year has shown again tourism’s unique ability to bounce back. In many places, we are close to or even above pre-pandemic levels of arrivals. However, we must remain alert to challenges ranging from geopolitical insecurity, staffing shortages, and the potential impact of the cost-of-living crisis on tourism, and we must ensure tourism’s return delivers on its responsibilities as a solution to the climate emergency and as a driver of inclusive development.”

The following chart shows trends over time across regions. While Asia-Pacific has seen the weakest recovery so far, the UNTWO believes this will accelerate though the year, especially given that China’s borders are now open.

What’s ahead for the rest of the year?

UNTWO’s projections for the whole 2023 year foresee international arrivals recovering 80% to 95% of pre-pandemic levels. However, the UNWTO’s Panel of Experts warn that the economic situation in many countries could drag down this estimate:

“The economic situation remains the main factor weighing on the effective recovery of international tourism in 2023, with high inflation and rising oil prices translating into higher transport and accommodations costs. As a result, tourists are expected to increasingly seek value for money and travel closer to home. Uncertainty derived from the Russian aggression against Ukraine and other mounting geopolitical tensions, also continue to represent downside risks.”

For additional background, please see:

• “Global survey shows rising costs of living are significantly affecting international student mobility”

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• 2022: 239,575 international students, 973,715 weeks
• 2021: 53,600 international students, 462,000 weeks

Despite that boost, there were only half as many full-time students in English UK centres in 2022 as there were in 2019. Student weeks remained off by 40% compared to pre-COVID volumes.
 
Juniors composed almost half of the total – a welcome trend given how much the Junior segment had fallen off in the pandemic.  In 2021, Juniors accounted for only 9% of the total.

The English-language learning industry in the UK spans both private and public (state) providers. Private providers make up 90% of the total English UK membership. The private sector is rebounding, though not consistently: English UK reports that “a sixth of private providers exceeded their 2019 volumes – but a third achieved under half.” The public sector is worse off: “state sector providers taught a third fewer student weeks than in 2021, and 22% fewer students.”
 
Patrik Pavlacic, chief intelligence officer of BONARD (the research firm that provides English UK’s statistics and analysis), attributes the slower ELT recovery to the fact that traditional markets in Europe are not bouncing back strongly enough. He writes:

“The uneven recovery and market developments in China and Russia have clear implications for student recruitment strategy-building. In this context, it is prudent for the sector to combine a focus on source markets that are experiencing a swift recovery and those which might not be rebounding as fast, but offer long-term potential for the UK ELT sector.”

Mr Pavlacic believes the recovery can gather steam provided there is “continued coordination of stakeholders, which include the government, and their targeted marketing efforts in prospective target markets.”
 
Jodie Gray, chief executive of English UK, notes that changes to the UK’s immigration system since Brexit are affecting the pace of the recovery:

“These are the figures we’ve been awaiting, answering the crucial question about how the UK is recovering from the pandemic despite immigration changes making it harder for our biggest markets to travel here … there are pockets of excellent and worrying news and the loss of ID card travel means it’s hard to see when and whether our major EU markets can fully recover.” 

English UK recently released a position paper calling on the government to consider concrete steps aimed at easing the impacts of Brexit on the English-language learning sector.
 
Despite immigration obstacles making student recruitment more difficult, Ms Gray made sure to applaud the work of English UK members:

“I’m so proud of what our industry has achieved in difficult circumstances. We will continue to support our members’ hard work and innovation with marketing drives such as the return of the China Roadshow and StudyWorld London and campaigning for vital tweaks to the immigration system to make UK study easier for junior groups and more attractive for other students.”

The data

• Overall, English UK members taught 239,576 full and part-time students, compared with 535,049 in 2019.  
• The fastest growing markets overall were Argentina (+1329%), Brazil (+567%), Italy (+502%), and Ukraine (+413%).
• Students from the key markets of China and Russia accounted for -25% and -20% fewer student weeks in 2022, respectively.
• China contributed 36% fewer weeks to the state sector but remained the top source market (38% of the total). Saudi Arabia (9%), Romania (8%), Japan (5%) and Kuwait (4%) accounted for the next largest proportions of student weeks for the state sector.
• Saudi Arabia contributed the most weeks for private sector members (15% of total student weeks). This was the second consecutive year for this trend. Italy (12%), Spain (6%), France (5%) were the next most important markets for English UK private centres.
• Both adults and juniors studying with private providers stayed on average 4.1 weeks, back to pre-pandemic lengths of stay.

For additional background, please see:

• “UK ELT sector calls for government action to ease post-Brexit impacts”
• “Industry groups call for change as youth bookings for UK remain far below pre-COVID levels“

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