As in Nigeria, a youth bulge – a term used to describe a population in which the proportion of youth exceeds the proportion of those aged 35 or above – is a significant feature of Kenyan society. Kenya is the 7th most populous country in Africa (over 57 million), and one quarter of Kenyans are between the ages of 18 and 34. Even more strikingly, those under the age of 15 make up 43% of the population.

Kenya is a predominantly Christian country with two official languages: English and Swahili. Nairobi is the largest city and is often ranked the top “business” city in Africa; it is home to a large number of multinationals and is considered a gateway to the larger East African market. Nairobi is also the 74th wealthiest city in the world (4th in Africa), a standing allowed by a solid presence .

Massive number of Kenyans about to enter labour force

Though fertility rates are now declining in Kenya, the reality is that the next couple of decades will see an unprecedented number of young people enter the country’s labour force. A World Bank report, (2021), states that: “Over the decade from 2020 to 2029 the working age population will increase by an average of 1 million per year.”

The key to unlocking the potential of that influx of youth into the economy will be (1) equipping millions of young Kenyans with a solid education and in-demand skills and (2) creating enough jobs to absorb the soaring number of people who need them. This will be a difficult task, as it would be for any government no matter where in the world.

Youth bulge is challenging to accommodate

Youth bulges – caused by a milestone in a country’s development where the infant mortality rate falls but the maternal fertility rate does not – create both opportunities and challenges.

Theoretically, a youth bulge presents opportunities because those under the age of 35 have the potential to contribute so greatly to a country’s economy and development. But in practice, a heavy and accelerating proportion of youth creates stress on human infrastructure such as healthcare, education, and job training. Especially in developing countries, it is difficult for governments to expand social services and jobs at the same rate as the youth demographic is expanding.

What we tend to see in many cases where a youth bulge occurs is that a government quickly builds new educational capacity without being able to also ensure quality across the board. Uneven systems of higher education result, with some schools being excellent but incredibly difficult to get into and many other schools being available but expensive or of subpar quality.

In such systems, a large number of students emerge with diplomas and degrees but many lack the skills needed by employers. This is the case in Kenya, where youth unemployment has been a major problem for years. In 2018, the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics found that 9 out of every 10 unemployed Kenyans . In 2020, a survey by market research firm CPS International found that half of Kenyan employers were dissatisfied with the level of skills graduates were emerging with.

Work experience and overseas study valued by Kenyan employers

The CPS International study found that assessing new graduates is work experience (85%) “followed by skills, hobbies and talents, volunteerism, internships and having studied overseas.” This suggests that study abroad programmes with an internship component are especially attractive to Kenyan students, and indeed, a recent global survey by Keystone Education Group – for which half of student respondents were African – found that internships were the top factor determining students’ choice of study abroad programme.

Pushing for vocational

The mismatch between graduates’ competencies and the skills needed by Kenyan employers has prompted the Kenyan government to invest in the country’s vocational education system (TVET) and to launch campaigns positioning TVET as “the preferable option” for Kenyan students. However, as in many developing countries, there is still a sense among families that vocational education lacks the prestige of an academic, university route.

Some foreign institutions are partnering with private and public stakeholders in Kenya to improve and to establish a presence in the market. For example, Vancouver Island University reports that is with North Island College (NIC), and the British Columbia Institute of Technology (BCIT) to “work with four Kenyan institutions (Kisii National Polytechnic, Keroka Technical Training Institute, Sigalagala National Polytechnic and Bondo Technical Training Institute) to develop new programmes in electrical, welding and mechanical trades, while at the same time providing new opportunities for VIU staff and faculty to apply their skills and knowledge internationally.”

Soaring enrolments have overwhelmed the higher education system

In Kenya, the number of public and private universities has doubled in the past ten years and enrolments have surged. Between 2014 and 2022, tertiary enrolments increased by 28% and now stand at 562,000, positioning Kenya as the fourth largest enroller of university students in Africa after Nigeria, South Africa, and Ethiopia.

Though there are some very good universities and programmes, the World Bank concludes that overall:

“Soaring student-teacher ratios have undermined the quality of existing programmes, as teaching and other learning practices continue to be traditional in most higher education institutions, with over-reliance on rote learning and outdated curricula.”

Not only that, but most Kenyan universities are in financial distress – together, the debt of all public universities and associated colleges reached US$456 million in 2023, creating an insolvency crisis. Government structures for sponsoring students as well as university fees have not kept pace with rising enrolments, and the result is an overwhelmed, underfunded system.

The University of Nairobi, in particular, has been at the centre of controversy for its decision to address its financial woes by more than doubling tuition fees for postgraduate courses in 2021. The university (ranked 1001-1200 in the QS World Rankings 2023) has also just raised fees for medical programmes.

Overall, the Universities Funding Board – which determines tuition fees in Kenya – says that tuition fees in most Kenyan universities range between US$1,380 USD–US$5,000 USD per year.

Wealthier students now have more reason to study abroad

The financial crisis across Kenya’s higher education institutions threatens to have a massive impact on high-school graduates. After months of debate, the government has announced a new funding model that will govern which students get financial assistance – or full scholarships – for a place in a public university. Under this model, the poorest students will receive the most funding, while the most financially “able” will receive less than in the past. Previously, all students who scored C+ and above on the KCSE leaving exam were automatically given a government sponsorship. This is no longer the case.

The government has defended the reforms by noting that is simply impossible to maintain the previous level of financial support for all students given the rising number of enrolments – and that wealthier students have a responsibility to pay more.

Faced with a fee hike, more affluent students than in the past. Not only do they have the traditional Western options of the US, UK, Canada, and Australia, but they also have more affordable options in other countries. Scholarships for Kenyan students are on the rise as a result of more intense competition among foreign educators.

Outbound mobility trends

ApplyBoard considers Kenya to be a “high-growth-potential” student source market (based on its ), along with Nigeria, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Egypt, and Indonesia.

Kenya was the top East African market for US educators in 2022, sending 5,790 students, up 45% compared with 2019.

Over 4,700 Kenyans are currently studying , 27% more than in 2019. Kenya is the top African source market and sends the 20th largest volume of students to Australia overall.

UNESCO data shows that UAE is also a top destination for Kenyan students, enrolling over 2,000 in 2020.

Canadian institutions enrolled 2,310 Kenyans in 2022, up 12% compared with 2019. Kenya sent a similar number of students to the UK in 2021/22, with 2,800 students enrolled, up 24% from 2019.

Kenyan economy

Kenya’s economy is the largest in East Africa, and the third largest in Sub-Saharan Africa after Nigeria and South Africa. The economy is guided by the “Vision 2030” strategy document, which charts a path towards Kenya attaining middle-income status as a nation by 2030. The country’s vibrant tech sector has earned Kenya the moniker of “Silicon Valley of Africa.”

The growth rate slowed in 2022 to 4.8%, lower than the IMF’s projection for the year. The slowdown was linked to “a drought, tighter financial conditions, and government spending cuts.” However, before the pandemic, Kenya was one of the top performing economies in Africa, averaging between 2010 and 2018.

Top sectors are agriculture, forestry, fishing, mining, manufacturing, energy, tourism, and financial services. A major push is underway to have digital skills and technologies power the economy to new heights, detailed in the Digital Economy Blueprint.

The currency, the Kenyan shilling, has been and has lost 7.8% of its value against the US dollar so far this year. Inflation is also rising on the back of . As a result, Kenyan families will be more price sensitive than usual this year.

Internet and social media

Well-executed digital campaigns are essential in Kenya. Internet penetration is very high, and young Kenyans are glued to social media, behind only Nigerians and Ghanaians in the amount of time they spend on social media. In order, Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, and Instagram are the most popular channels for Kenyan social media users.

The US considers Kenya an excellent opportunity for US university recruiters and advises:

“US education institutions should take advantage of the thriving digital space in Kenya by investing in content creation to attract Kenyan students. Virtual school tours, student life, and educational benefits are some of the aspects that they should focus on. Facebook should be the primary platform of use, along with Google to target the specific demographic and to target parents who fund their children’s educational dreams. YouTube and Instagram should also be utilized to appeal to students looking to study in the US.”

Further, the Administration notes: “Kenyan students have high interest in studying technology and computer sciences and are especially interested in courses not offered by local universities.”

High school and university recruitment

As is typical in many countries, international schools offer great potential for foreign recruiters and many . Tuition fees average USD$5,000– $20,000 per year. More private schools .

A list of universities . At the top public universities in Kenya, including Egerton University, Kenyatta University, the University of Nairobi, Moi University, Maseno University College, and Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology, competition for admission is especially fierce.

The University of Nairobi is particularly well ranked in QS’s World University Rankings by Subject in three programmes: development studies (51-100) agriculture and forestry programme (301-350), medicine (451-500).

If students do not get into public universities, they can go to private universities but in this case, they do not receive government financial assistance. They can apply for loans from the Higher Education Loans Board (HELB), however. Private universities in Kenya include Africa Nazarene University, University of Eastern Africa-Baraton, Catholic University of Eastern Africa, Daystar University, United States International University-Africa, and Kenya Methodist University.

For additional background, please see:

• “New report highlights increasing competition for students from Sub-Saharan Africa”
• “Ghana: Steady gains in outbound student numbers suggest further growth ahead”

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Egypt

Egypt is the most populous country in the Arab world, and its economy grew by more than 5% in 2018. One in five Egyptians is aged 15–24, and fully a third of them are unemployed. Of those who are unemployed, 34% hold degrees.

Most university-bound students attend one of Egypt’s 24 free public institutions, while students who achieve lower grades in high school tend to enrol in one of the country’s 23 private institutions. Many graduates do not find jobs matching their skill level.

With a higher education crisis looming, the government passed legislation in 2018 that allows international branch campuses to operate in the country. As well as offering domestic students a better future, Egypt hopes to become a Middle Eastern education hub through this new strategy.

Given Egypt’s massive youth population, however, even a significant expansion of the domestic higher education sector will not accommodate enough students. The number of Egyptian students going abroad for higher education has nearly tripled in the past decade, from 12,300 in 2008 to at least 32,000 today, and this growth trend will almost certainly continue.

Roughly a third of Egyptian students are studying in Saudi Arabia or the UAE. The US is third, with just under 3,600 Egyptian students as of March 2019. While Egyptian enrolments in US institutions have been relatively flat, enrolments have increased by 78% in Canada over the past five years and now number around 2,500. Other top destinations include France, Malaysia, and the UK, each with roughly 2,000 Egyptian students in 2017/18.

Location

Northeast Africa, bordering Israel, Libya, and Sudan

Demographics

• Population: 101 million
• Population growth rate: 2%
• Population aged 15–24: 19%
• Population under 25: 52%
• Youth unemployment: 34%
• Languages: Arabic (official), English and French widely understood by educated classes
• Religions: Muslim (90%), Christian (10%)

Keys to the market

Colleges and universities establishing a presence in Egypt would do well to focus on linkages with the private sector to connect students to the real needs of the marketplace. SMEs (small- and medium-sized enterprises) are major sources of employment in Egypt, and therefore programmes fostering entrepreneurship and innovation are much needed.

Ghana

A democracy that consistently ranks in the top three countries in Africa for freedom of speech and of the press, Ghana is a peaceful oasis in a region often plagued by unrest. Its economy is growing steadily; 2019 is expected to be the third year of GDP growth exceeding 6%.

However, there is inadequate economic diversification. Many jobs in the country’s dominant agricultural and resource extraction industries require little formal skills training, and youth unemployment is disproportionately high among those with some higher education. A dearth of job opportunities at home motivates Ghanaian prospects to look carefully at post-graduate work and immigration policies in destination countries. A recent Pew Research Center survey found that three-quarters of Ghanaians would emigrate if they had “the means and opportunity.”

With Ghanaian universities able to accommodate only around 20% of those who apply, and given quality issues in the private education sector, demand for study abroad is increasing sharply. UNESCO counted 12,560 Ghanaians studying abroad in 2017, up 40% from 8,965 in 2012. This is a conservative estimate, given that there are at least 7,000 studying in China alone.

While Ghanaians traditionally favoured the US and the UK as destinations, they are now considering a much wider range of study abroad options. Australia, Canada, China, South Africa, and Ukraine have carved out strong positions in the market. China is offering thousands of scholarships per year to Ghanaian students, and Germany, Japan, and Russia are also notable for their incentives.

Location

West Africa, bordering Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, and Togo

Demographics

• Population: 30 million
• Population growth rate: 2%
• Population aged 15–24: 19%
• Population under 25: 57%
• Youth unemployment: 14%
• Languages: English (official and language of instruction), Akan, and Hausa (among Muslims)
• Religions: Christian (71%), Muslim (17%)

Keys to the market

Twenty-two accredited agencies are recognised by the Government of Ghana. As Michael Aidoo, the CEO and executive director of the Accra-based agency CELC International, explains, “In Ghana, you have to be a registered agency. You must register with the Ghana Education Service. Not only that, you should be a registered company in Ghana. That is the most important thing.”

Kenya

Kenya boasts one of the most diversified economies in Africa; agriculture and resource industries remain the most important sectors, but manufacturing, technology, tourism, and financial services are also well developed. The economy grew by 5.7% in 2018 and is expected to take a similar track in 2019.

The British Council projects that Kenya will have a population of 5.7 million college-aged students by 2024. These students hold the promise of meeting Kenya’s goal of becoming a middle-income country by 2030, but at present, its education system does not equip enough of these students with skills the country needs. Kenya’s higher education system has expanded rapidly in recent years thanks in large part to the entry of several private universities and polytechnics. But there are persistent quality concerns and government funding has been declining.

UNESCO estimates that 14,000 Kenyans are studying abroad, and the US, Australia, the UK, and South Africa host the bulk of them. That said, Kenyan outbound study has been essentially flat for several years. Partly this is because many Kenyans no longer see the value in higher education and need to find jobs as soon as possible. Demand is growing substantially for skills training. China is now a major player in providing vocational education in-country, with many graduates of programmes going on to find jobs in China-owned, Kenya-based companies.

This is a market ripe for some of the disruptive innovations transforming post-secondary education, such as short-term vocational training and micro-credentials.

Location

East Africa, on the Indian Ocean, between Somalia and Tanzania

Demographics

• Population: 52 million
• Population growth rate: 2%
• Population aged 15–24: 20%
• Population under 25: 59%
• Youth unemployment: 19%
• Languages: English and Swahili (official and language of instruction), Hausa (among Muslims)
• Religions: Christian (83%), Muslim (11%), small Hindu and Sikh minorities

Keys to the market

Quality vocational education is in demand in information technology, accounting and project management, geology, engineering, pipe fitting, welding, drilling, and operation and maintenance of equipment used in resource extraction. Partnerships with corporations to deliver skills training could be promising, and Kenyans will see value in educators that can match them with employers.

Nigeria

Nigeria’s domestic higher education system simply can’t educate the number of young people applying for spaces. According to Nigeria’s National Universities Commission, between 2012 and 2017 fewer than 20% of applicants to Nigerian universities gained admission, leaving 6.3 million qualified students without a place. One in five Nigerians is aged 15–24, and this is the fundamental reason that Nigeria will be one of the fastest growing markets for study abroad for the foreseeable future.

UNESCO estimates that there are around 90,000 Nigerians studying abroad today.

The country shook off a two-year recession in 2017 and returned to modest growth of 1.9% in 2018. While the government has endeavoured to make the economy less dependent on oil and gas, diversification is happening slowly and jobs outside natural resource extraction and agriculture are scarce: nearly a quarter of Nigerians were unemployed in 2018 and many more were underemployed. Boko Haram’s terrorism continues to plague the country and widens the divide between the poorer North and more affluent South. Basic infrastructure is generally weak, with frequent labour strikes, underfunded hospitals, and electricity shortages.

Many middle-class Nigerian families have a common goal: to start new lives in other countries. For that reason, Nigerian prospects, like Ghanaian ones, tend to look closely at immigration opportunities in destination countries. Top destinations include the US, with 15,980 students in early 2019; Malaysia, with roughly 13,000 in 2019; Canada, with 11,290 in 2018; and the UK, with 10,540 in 2017/18. Ghana and South Africa are popular regional hubs drawing thousands of Nigerians.

Location

West Africa, bordering Niger, Chad, Cameroon, and Benin

Demographics

• Population: 201 million
• Population growth rate: 3%
• Population aged 15–24: 20%
• Population under 25: 62%
• Youth unemployment: 37%
• Languages: English (official), Hausa, Yoruba
• Religions: Muslim (52%), Christian (47%)

Keys to the market

In Nigeria, vocational education retains a stigma; families see practical rather than academic programmes as appropriate only for the lower classes. Yet highly skilled graduates in specific trades are the employees Nigeria most needs. Intelligent branding of vocational education – combatting outdated stereotypes – will be important for colleges recruiting in Nigeria. Nigerians are also frustrated by student visa hassles and will look for destinations where their visa applications are most likely to be accepted.

For additional background, please see:

• “Africa ascending: The demographic juggernaut driving student mobility in the 21st century”
• “Growing Egyptian demand for education pressures domestic capacity”
• “From the field: Recruiting in Ghana”
• “Strengthening Nigerian economy bolsters outlook for study abroad”
• “From the field: Affordability shaping Kenyan outbound trends”

The post Africa ascending: Four growth markets to watch appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

Part of the answer to this apparent contradiction may lie in patterns of income distribution and income growth in Kenya, and in particular that income levels are relatively low overall. A recent  points out that only 5% of Kenyans are within a middle-income bracket, as compared to 13% globally. The same report estimates that slightly more than nine in ten Kenyans are in a low-income bracket or living in poverty.

This may be due in part to the fact that much of the country’s economy is grounded in resource and agricultural industries, and with a significant proportion of informal employment. In contrast, middle-class, middle-income earners tend to be concentrated in Kenya’s service industries (e.g., finance, insurance) and in the main urban centres of Nairobi and Mombasa.

Another factor in the curiously flat trajectory of Kenya’s outbound stats is that, in addition to the student movement tracked by UNESO, there are large numbers of students studying outside of the country in neighbouring East African states, particularly Uganda. This intra-regional mobility has never been well-tracked, and is fuelled in part by Kenyans’ interest in more affordable study destinations.

The question of affordability was front and centre in a recent discussion that we had with Amin Esmail. Mr Esmail is the chief executive of , a long-established education agency based in Nairobi. As he explains in our first interview segment below, outbound student numbers are almost certainly undercounted and especially where more affordable destinations are concerned.

But Mr Esmail also sees a longer-term trend to further growth in the market. “Traditionally, students have not had the same information available to them that they have today,” he points out. “More and more students are looking around, seeing opportunities, and, to a great number, getting pleasant surprises that when we look around the world that there are opportunities [to study overseas] but only that we were unaware of them.”

In our second interview segment below, Mr Esmail highlights that the US remains a leading destination for Kenyan students. He notes as well though that India is a major destination in its own right, and one where outbound numbers tend to be greatly understated.

The overall picture, however, is one of shifting patterns of demand and destination preferences for Kenyan students as students and families become more and aware of the different study options available to them. “Canada has picked up momentum tremendously,” he says, citing one such shift in student preference. “This has to do partly with the cost of their education…and that it is more student friendly than many countries.”

On the question of how to approach recruiting in Kenya, Mr Esmail’s advice is simple: “It is important to have your presence there,” he says. “To visit regularly, and there are always local exhibitions where recruiters are invited and that is one of the opportunities to come and meet students. This is an investment but one that is rewarded by both the quality and quantity of students that you can get from East Africa.”

For additional background, please see:

• “Could Kenya become a growth market for outbound mobility?”
• “Kenya cracks down in sweeping review of higher education quality”
• “Kenyan students staying home in greater numbers but quality concerns persist”

The post Affordability shaping Kenyan outbound trends appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

After setbacks in the global economic crisis in 2008/09, the Kenyan economy rebounded to growth in the early part of this decade and expanded by 5.8% in 2016 alone. This makes it one of the best performers on the African continent, and similar annual growth – between roughly 5.5% and 6.0% per year – is expected through 2019.

Kenya is East Africa’s industrial hub. The economy still relies heavily on agriculture and resource industries – notably forestry, fishing, and mining – but it has real strengths as well in manufacturing, energy, tourism, financial services, and communications technology.

Kenya is also the seventh-largest country in Africa today. Driven by way-above-global-average birth rates, the country’s population, currently around 49 million people, is projected to exceed 80 million by 2050.

But its population also skews very young, with more than half of all citizens under the age of 25 and the country is expected to have one of the world’s fastest-growing populations of 18-to-22-year-olds through 2024. The British Council projects that Kenya will have a population of 5.7 million college-aged students by 2024, up from 4.2 million in 2011 – a level of growth exceeded only by Nigeria, India, Ethiopia, and Indonesia.

A check on growth

Even with these strong fundamentals in place, total outbound mobility, as measured by UNESCO, has been essentially flat over the past ten years. There were about 13,700 Kenyan students in tertiary studies abroad in 2007, and, with some minor ups and downs in the intervening years, UNESCO counted about the same number of outbound students for 2016.

The US has been the historical favourite destination, and hosts one in four Kenyan students abroad today. The UK, Australia, and South Africa account for another 35% combined. The destinations for Kenyan students become more diffused after that, with host countries in the Middle East, Asia, and Europe largely rounding out the top ten.

There is some indication, however, that UNESCO data significantly undercounts the total outbound from Kenya. Media reports have it that tens of thousands more Kenyan students are enrolled in nearby countries, notably Tanzania and Uganda, the latter which has long been seen as an education hub in the area.

Aside from this regional mobility aspect, the other major factor that appears to be a curb on outbound growth from Kenya is the rapid expansion of higher education within the country.

There are now 68 higher education institutions in Kenya, up from 58 since 2011 alone. Twenty-two are public and the rest – which are responsible for the greatest expansion in Kenya’s higher education capacity – are private.

The country needs this additional capacity as the massification of higher education in Kenya is now in full effect. Total enrolment has grown very quickly from 2012 on, doubling between 2012 and 2014 alone. From 2013’s 361,379 students, higher education enrolment grew to 443,783 in 2014 and then, more modestly, to reach 470,152 students in 2015.

The quality question

Few domestic systems could expand that quickly without some growing pains, and Kenya’s is no exception. Earlier this year, a sweeping audit by the Kenyan government found widespread issues with respect to student admissions, progression, and the awarding of degrees and certificates.

The resulting report triggered the suspension of some programmes, tighter oversight of others, and systemic reforms intended to boost the integrity and quality of Kenyan higher education.

The question will now be whether or not Kenyan higher education can achieve more uniform quality improvements while keeping pace with the tremendous demand for degree studies within the country. Needless to say, there is an imperative to do so, especially given the opportunity of the demographic dividend that the country’s youthful population now offers. Kenya needs its growing labour force to be well educated and skilled in order to meet its ambitious economic and social goals.

This would be a daunting proposition for any education system, but Kenyan institutions are struggling with real financial challenges as well, triggered in part by declining public funding to the sector. The auditor-general found earlier this year that as many as 11 Kenyan universities are essentially insolvent, and other reports suggest that 12 of the 33 public universities in the country could operate at a deficit this year.

And this opens up a broader question. Demand for higher education in Kenya is high and will only increase for the foreseeable future. At the same time, the population of college-aged students will also increase, as will the strength of the Kenyan economy. It seems possible, even likely, that this will lead to a notable increase in outbound numbers in the decade ahead, and that that is sure to keep Kenya on any recruiter’s list of markets to watch in Sub-Saharan Africa.

For additional background, please see:

• “Kenya cracks down in sweeping review of higher education quality”
• “From the field: Recruiting in East Africa”
• “Kenyan students staying home in greater numbers but quality concerns persist”

The post Could Kenya become a growth market for outbound mobility? appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

The final audit report, released by CUE on 16 February 2017, has immediately kicked off further reforms designed to address long-standing quality issues in Kenya’s rapidly expanding higher education sector. The immediate steps taken by government officials include:

• A suspension of so-called “school-based programmes,” a stream of degree study targeted to primary and secondary school teachers through which such students are found to have been engaged in university studies for as little as six-to-nine weeks per year. Universities have been directed to close such programmes, or to convert them to part-time degree options.

• A suspension of executive degree programmes, particularly Executive Master of Business Administration degrees, with the prospect that previous graduates of such programmes may have their qualifications recalled.

• CUE has also tightened university admissions requirements so that students with weaker secondary school records, or those applying on the strength of university bridging programmes or with foreign credentials, may no longer be admitted.

The report details among Kenyan institutions, including the delivery of unaccredited programmes, poor admissions procedures that open the door to the admission of unqualified students and/or the use of fraudulent credentials, poor attendance and performance tracking, and the graduation of students who had not met degree requirements.

Cabinet Secretary Matiang’i cautioned afterward that Kenyans should not expect a mass recall of university degrees. However, the nation’s universities have been given a six-month window to comply with government quality requirements, and, more immediately, CUE has sent a separate audit report to each audited institution with a demand for a rapid response. “Each university must submit corrections of factual errors they may find in their individual audit report within seven days. In addition, each university is required to submit its corrective actions to the commission within 30 days,” CUE Chairperson Chacha Nyaigotti-Chacha said to .

Even so, the audit may lead to some immediate closures of some universities, with reports that CUE has recommended the ministry take steps to immediately. This follows the CUE-recommended closure or sanction of a number of other Kenyan universities in recent years, including Inoorero University, Barack Obama University, and Kenco University.

Money troubles

Meanwhile, a separate auditor-general’s report has determined that eleven Kenyan universities are essentially insolvent and unable to meet their financial obligations. They include the country’s flagship University of Nairobi along with Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology, University of Eldoret, Technical University of Kenya, Pwani University, Murang’a University College, Multimedia University of Kenya, Masinde Muliro University of Science and Technology, Machakos University, Laikipia University, and Embu University College.

The auditor-general finds that operating deficits have now eroded or exceeded the cash reserves of each institution but also points to constrained public funding as the main financial challenge facing the country’s higher education sector. In particular, the report highlights, “Inadequate government funding to cater for increased costs in academic programmes, refurbishment of teaching facilities and increase of personal emoluments based on improved terms and conditions of service”. Other reports suggest that as many as 21 of 33 public universities in Kenya .

The cost of growth

All of these findings point to a system under considerable strain to keep pace with the demand for higher education in Kenya. CUE reports that there were 539,749 students enrolled in the nation’s universities in 2016, a nearly 23% increase over the year before and on pace with the dramatic growth in overall enrolment observed since 2012.

Much of that growth in student numbers has been absorbed by Kenya’s burgeoning private universities but, as the recent CUE and auditor-general reports attest, institutions of all stripes are struggling.

The quality of higher education in Kenya has been the subject of considerable commentary from the World Bank and other international observers and is also the focus of a within the country.

What this means for recruitment

Kenya’s outbound student numbers have tailed off in recent years, in part owing to a softening economy and a weakening exchange rate for the Kenyan shilling against major world currencies. However, the outlook is for more robust economic growth in 2017 and a correspondingly better footing for the shilling.

At the same time, Kenya is projected to have one of the fastest-growing college-aged populations in the world over the next decade. The British Council projects that Kenya will have a population of 5.7 million college-aged students by 2024, up from 4.2 million in 2011 – a rate of growth expected to be exceeded only by Nigeria, India, Ethiopia, and Indonesia.

That combination of a growing student pool, improving economic conditions, and persistent quality concerns at home, could well lead to a greater number of outbound students in the year ahead. Kenyan students have shown a tendency toward study closer to home – that is, in neighbouring East African countries – in the past, but the overarching demand factors here continue to keep Kenya on many recruiters’ list of emerging markets to watch.

For additional background on the Kenyan market, please see:

• “Kenyan students staying home in greater numbers but quality concerns persist“
• “From the field: Recruiting in East Africa“
• “The employability challenge in Sub-Saharan Africa“
• “Governments and educators in Kenya struggling to keep pace with demand for higher education“

The post Kenya cracks down in sweeping review of higher education quality appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

Uganda boasts 29 universities serving about 200,000 students, with 30,000 graduating annually. Makerere University issues 30% of those annual qualifications and is ranked by  among the top five universities in Africa. Much of the Ugandan higher education market is driven by foreign students, and the schools themselves have adopted more internationalised curricula in recent years.

There are about 16,000 foreign students enrolled in Ugandan universities. Most choose Kampala International University, followed by Makerere University and Bugema University. The bulk are from Kenya, though Uganda has become a hub for students from all of East Africa. The main attraction for these students are the low fees for foreigners, a relatively safe environment, and the wide-ranging subjects available for study. For Kenyans, an extra enticement is the similarity of the education system to their home country in terms of standards and quality.

As we noted in an earlier report, interregional cooperation within the East African Community (EAC) has boosted access to education and mobility between the five member states of Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda. A 2012 bill signed by the Inter University Council for East Africa () furthered the trend. However, competition still exists, and Ugandan universities have been among the most aggressive recruiters in the region, another factor boosting inbound mobility.

In terms of outbound mobility, the latest UNESCO statistics indicate that roughly 5,200 Ugandan students are currently enrolled overseas. The total has been rising steadily since 2006, and has doubled over the past decade. Students prefer the UK and US, choosing those two destinations in almost equal numbers, with South Africa the third most popular option. In general, English-speaking destinations fare well, but countries as diverse as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and Italy have also proven to be popular among Ugandan students.

���Ϲ��� Monitor recently spoke about the Uganda education market with Robert Wagubi of . In the video excerpts that follow, Mr Wagubi offers his considerable insights on trends in Uganda and East Africa.

In our first interview segment below, he discusses Uganda’s investment in education, local demand for education, and points towards improved economies in the East African region as drivers for bringing internationally educated Ugandans back home after their studies.

Uganda is one of the youngest countries in the world, with a median age of 15.6. Like other African countries, there is a skills gap that often results in university graduates remaining unemployed, but this is an especially pressing issue in a country whose youth are a higher percentage of the total population than anywhere else in the world. Estimates of youth unemployment range from 62% to 83%, the highest in Africa.

Even so, state expenditures on higher education have been low. Spending is slated to increase in 2016/17, driven in part by a boost in teacher salaries. Even more funding may be needed, however. A recent study showed that Ugandan universities, on the whole, operate on a below-cost-per-student basis, a loss that makes improving education outcomes difficult. In a related development,  showed that 63% of Ugandan graduates were not properly prepared for the employment market.

However, during President Yoweri Museveni’s long rule, Uganda has made progress in some areas. The World Bank’s Uganda Poverty Assessment 2016 says the country cut poverty by nearly two thirds between 2006 and 2013. This shift is one of the highest in all of sub-Saharan Africa during that time period. How much of this is a result of policy is in debate, however the government has invested in infrastructure and the report credits government trade policies with making a difference.

Rising income levels mean more Ugandans are earning tertiary degrees. But with many of these coming from private universities that arose to fill the country’s large capacity gap, academic standards and quality controls remain areas of concern. For example, in 2007 Kampala International University (KIU) began awarding PhDs in humanities but didn’t have permission to do so from the Uganda National Council for Higher Education (NCHE) until two years later. In 2013 NCHE declared all of the 66 doctorates KIU had awarded the previous two years invalid link to. And in 2014, five universities, including Makerere University, were reprimanded for teaching courses without applying for full accreditation from the NCHE.

These problems have been addressed by the government, and tertiary degrees remain respected by Ugandan employers. Demand for them is soaring. Business owners prefer tertiary graduates for all jobs, and degree holders are routinely hired for positions that could be filled by vocational and technical graduates. Ugandan youth are well aware of this fierce competition for the best positions, and the idea of attaining a tertiary degree is now normalised among not only them, but among their parents and in the wider culture as well.

Students who take the extra step of completing an international qualification have an advantage in this competitive job market. In our second interview segment below, Mr Wagubi talks about effective international education marketing strategies for Uganda, focusing on Canada’s recruiting success there. He makes the point that Canada, which is a top ten destination for Ugandan students, may have created a blueprint for marketing in the region.

The Ugandan government has implemented programmes designed to funnel students toward areas needed by labour market. In 2008, it passed the Business Technical Vocational Education and Training Act, and has since increased investment and sharpened focus on skills training via its BTVET Strategic Plan 2011-2020. Today, 90 districts have at least one BTVET facility equipped to provide training, and enrolment has topped 150,000 students. The government intends to shortly have BTVET schools in all 112 districts of the country.

The government also created the Higher Education Student’s Financing Board (HESFB) in 2014 to increase access to higher education for the rising number of needy students earning the Uganda Advanced Certificate of Education (UACE) awarded to secondary school graduates. The programme is aimed at students who don’t receive state scholarships and can’t raise cash for self-sponsorship. It also aims to address the problem of tertiary participation rates that hover around 6%.

How the state budget is applied to higher education moving forward will likely be affected by the most significant event in Uganda in recent years: the discovery of major oil deposits in 2010. While the announcement generated excitement, the example of Nigeria looms large over discussions about how to manage this potential source of wealth. Nigeria’s oil has brought prosperity but challenges as well, particularly in the form of damage to traditional industries such as fishing and farming.

Uganda vows not to make the same mistakes. President Museveni has asserted that no revenue will be spent on consumables, but rather on areas that boost national growth. The country of Norway – one of international oil’s biggest success stories – is assisting Uganda in various areas. The Ugandan government plans to funnel oil profits into a national fund similar to Norway’s, and President Museveni speaks of the oil industry supplementing rather than dominating the economy. According to some assessments, Ugandan oil could double the state budget if successfully managed.

In our third and final interview segment below, Mr Wagubi notes that Uganda’s burgeoning oil and gas industry is where jobs for engineering graduates are opening up, and points to other in-demand degrees in Uganda and in East Africa as a whole. He also offers useful tips for educators working in the Ugandan market.

For additional background on East Africa, please see:

• “New study highlights shifting patterns of African student mobility“
• “The employability challenge in Sub-Saharan Africa“
• “Demand for job skills heating up in Africa“

The post Recruiting in East Africa appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

We say “slice” because the report essentially parses selected emerging market responses to the QS World Grad School Tour Applicant Survey gathered between June 2014 and June 2016. At 2,096 emerging market respondents, the sample size is small (especially on a per country basis) but nevertheless provides some interesting directional indicators for recruiters. All of those responding to the survey were in the process of applying for admission to postgraduate degree programmes abroad.

The survey zeroes in on four countries that are increasingly seen as significant emerging markets for international recruitment: Nigeria, Indonesia, Brazil, and Turkey. In most cases, QS has paired these priority targets with other promising markets from the same region: Brazil with Mexico and Colombia, Nigeria with Ghana and Kenya, and Indonesia with the Philippines.

Bangladesh and Pakistan round out an 11-country sample of markets that share some common characteristics: booming youth populations, significant issues with domestic higher education, and, in some cases, national scholarship schemes to support study abroad.

Why study abroad?

Consistent with other surveys in the field, QS finds that employability is a major driver of demand for postgraduate studies abroad.

Most emerging market respondents indicated more specifically that their primary motivation for study abroad was to progress in their current career path. Bangladesh and Pakistan were the exceptions here: most applicants from those countries said they wanted to pursue postgraduate degrees abroad in order to progress to higher-level academic qualifications (that is, doctoral studies).

Where to study?

Not surprisingly, the US and UK were the two most-preferred destinations among emerging market respondents, with Canada, Australia, and Germany rounding out the top five choices.

Some interesting regional variations were noted, with the US and Canada more prominent in the preferences of students in Nigeria and Ghana, for example, and Germany and Australia more strongly preferred by Bangladeshi and Pakistani students. In contrast, the US and UK were consistently the number one and number two choices (respectively) of emerging market respondents in Latin America.

The main factor behind destination preferences appears to be “international recognition of qualifications,” which QS interprets as the students’ interest in ensuring that their foreign degrees will be valued at home and abroad.

Broadly speaking, African and South Asian students gave even greater weight to the availability of scholarships or other financial aid. And respondents from Latin America, along with their interest in international recognition of qualifications earned abroad, put a high priority on cultural and lifestyle factors.

The importance of subject rankings

When it comes down to choosing an institution, most respondents (47% of master’s applicants, 49% of doctoral applicants) put the highest priority on the institution’s reputation or ranking with respect to their intended field of study.

For master’s applicants, and reflecting the overarching importance of recognition of qualifications earned abroad, this was closely followed by institutional reputation (45%), employment prospects (40%), and funding (34%). Funding was the second-ranked factor for PhD applicants (42%) followed by overall institutional reputation (36%).

QS concludes that framing postgraduate study as a stepping stone to career advancement is likely to have the widest appeal, except for students in Pakistan and Bangladesh who are more strongly inclined to see master’s-level study as a path to a more advanced degree.

The report authors also suggest highlighting both subject-specific and institutional reputation for prospective postgraduate students, with a greater emphasis on subject-specific strengths when recruiting in Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Indonesia, and Turkey.

On the key question of post-study work, the report concludes, “While post-study work opportunities are considered by a significant proportion of applicants in all profiled markets, this appears to have a particularly strong impact on the destination choices of those in the Philippines, Brazil and Turkey, while carrying less weight for those in Bangladesh, Pakistan, or Indonesia.”

For additional background on the motivations and key decision factors for international postgraduate students, please see:

• “Survey says employment prospects the key for postgraduate applicants”
• “When it comes to rankings, students really want to know about employment”

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 paints a dramatic picture of surging youth populations and booming demand for higher education. But it also highlights the challenges of maintaining quality as rapidly expanding higher education systems struggle to accommodate growing numbers of students – often without commensurate increases in funding or faculty or with strong-enough links to employers.

Africa, the report notes, is home to some of the world’s fastest-growing economies. The continent has seen major increases in foreign investment, tourism, and trade over the past decade and more, but Sub-Saharan countries also remain heavily reliant on resource industries. This means they remain exposed to the inevitable ups and downs in world commodity prices, including oil. And this in turn provides many governments in the region with a ready motivation to expand service and technology industries and to move generally toward more diversified knowledge economies.

The sense of urgency that many Sub-Saharan governments feel in this respect is heightened by the fact that the region is also home to the fastest-growing youth population in the world. There are 226 million 15-to-24-year-olds in Sub-Saharan Africa today and that cohort is set to grow by more than 40% by 2030. “This so-called ‘youth bulge’ can be a motor for prosperity for all in the region if it is appropriately harnessed, but the prospects for doing so depend to a large extent on universally available and high quality education at all levels,” says the report. “Failure to address the educational aspirations and needs of the youth is likely to lead not only to sluggish economic growth, but also to youth unrest, a lingering sense of injustice and lack of purpose, and, in the most extreme cases, to extremism and violence.”

The supply-demand gap

Governments across the region have been working to open more university seats, both by converting colleges or university colleges to full public universities, and also by opening the door to greater private-sector provision of higher education.

This has led to some truly remarkable increases in university enrolment. In Kenya, for example, the number of university students doubled between 2012 and 2015 alone. The number of full-time students in public universities in Ghana increased by 76% between 2008/09 and 2014/15, and, over the same period, the number of students in the country’s private universities grew by 272%.

More broadly, only Asia grew faster than Sub-Saharan Africa in terms of total higher education enrolment between 1999 and 2013. The region saw its head count of higher ed students grow from 2.3 to 6.6 million over those 14 years. And yet, participation rates in Africa continue to lag well behind global norms. The gross enrolment ratio across Sub-Saharan Africa sits at about 8.2% today, but this compares to a global rate of nearly 33%.

This gap underscores the magnitude of the challenge facing Sub-Saharan educators and policy makers: not only must higher education systems absorb the dramatic increases in student numbers that they have already seen, they also need to expand a great deal more if they are to accommodate the growing youth populations across Africa.

The gross enrolment ratio in Kenya, for example, is still around only 4%. Practically speaking, a large majority of Kenyans simply do not have access to university education, with only about half of qualifying students able to obtain a place in a public university.

The situation is much the same in Nigeria, where the higher education system is nowhere near keeping up with demand and where only one in five applicants can find a place in a public university.

All of this growth has also put considerable pressure on quality controls in Sub-Saharan institutions. “Attention to quantity has not always been accompanied by an adequate emphasis on quality,” says the British Council. “Many institutions suffer from very large class sizes, with numbers in excess of 500 in an undergraduate class being common, on account of the lack of funds to recruit lecturers and, in some cases, a shortage of appropriately qualified candidates. In addition, there are complaints of inadequate physical infrastructure, lack of laboratories and equipment for scientific, engineering and agricultural studies, outdated curricula, ineffective pedagogical methods and inefficient administration. In many cases, these challenges are the direct result of a rapid expansion of the system without corresponding increases in funding or concern for the students’ learning experience.”

The employability gap

These quality concerns are directly linked to report’s focus on employability of university graduates, a link that is supported by other recent research in the field, including a study by the Inter-University Council for East Africa which estimated that more than half of all graduates in the region are “inadequately prepared for employment.”

The situation, however, naturally varies from country to country. In South Africa, for example, graduate unemployment actually declined from 2001 to 2011 (from about 18% to 5% of graduates unemployed). But university enrolment has spiked sharply there as well, nearly doubling between 2000 and 2013, and it remains to be seen if the domestic economy will be able to absorb greater numbers of university graduates at the same rate. National unemployment rates have been stubbornly high in South Africa (the national rate is currently hovering around 26%) and the public sector, which is traditionally a major employer of university graduates, is arguably overbuilt already.

Meanwhile in Kenya, unemployment is especially high – in the range of 67% in 2015 – among those aged 15 to 34. And the job market for university graduates in Nigeria is also very competitive: job openings suitable for university graduates attracted an average of 83 applicants in 2014 (up from 69 applicants in 2010). In Ghana, more than 71,000 graduates enter the job market each year, competing with an estimated 200,000 unemployed graduates in the domestic economy.

The British Council report recognises that the issue of graduate employability extends well beyond the walls of the university, and that such a broad societal issue will draw on an equally broad group of stakeholders for improvement, including employers and governments.

However, the report concludes with a range of recommendations focused on the universities in Sub-Saharan Africa, and argues for new investments and innovation to improve the quality of instruction and the depth and relevance of the curricula on offer.

It also advocates for expanded career services for students and graduates as well as a stronger role for work placements, volunteering, and service placements in Sub-Saharan university programmes.

The scale of the challenge (and the opportunity) facing the region means that this is likely to be an area of increasing focus going forward, both for local governments and for the international community, including foreign donors, investors, and educators.

A number of Sub-Saharan markets, Nigeria, Kenya, and Ghana among them, have emerged as significant international education markets over the past decade. And we can expect that the prevailing demographic and economic trends in the region will only add to the opportunity that these markets represent for student recruitment and transnational education in the years ahead.

For additional background, please see “Kenyan students staying home in greater numbers but quality concerns persist”, “Ghana emerging as an important sending market in Sub-Saharan Africa”, and “Nigeria tightens foreign exchange controls to limit use for study abroad”.

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