Coming to those decisions is a science and an art, based on objective criteria such as market fundamentals (e.g., GDP, size of the middle class, size of the youth demographic, economic trends) as well as internal signs that a market is becoming more or less promising (e.g., increased/decreased competitor activity, high or low growth rates in various nationalities within the student body, approval rates, etc.)

Today, we’ll look at the objective side of the balance with a summary of economic and demographic trends across four major student sending markets in Asia: Bangladesh, Indonesia, Nepal, and Vietnam. Going into 2026, all four countries feature strong demand for study abroad, and many students are widening their consideration set in terms of destinations.

Bangladesh

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has for economic growth in Bangladesh in 2026 to 4.9% (compared with it prediction of 6.4% growth in April 2025). The main reasons are inflation (8.7%–8.8% in 2025/26) and a challenging global trade environment that dampens opportunities for Bangladesh’s exports. President Trump’s tariff rate for Bangladeshi garments currently stands at 20%, which may reduce Bangladesh’s export earnings from the US market by 14%.

Fortunately, Bangladesh isn’t overly reliant on export earnings (about 10% of total GDP) compared to neighbours such as Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia (all over 60%). At the same time, Bangladesh’s economy lacks diversification, making it vulnerable to external shocks. There is high demand for study and work abroad, as remittances are a major component of Bangladesh’s GDP and fuel domestic consumption.

• GDP growth projection: 4.9% for 2026 ()
• Proportion of population in the middle class: 33%.
• Youth population: 49% of the country’s population of 172 million is under the age of 24.
• Currency performance: As of November 2025, the taka is trading at 121–122 per US dollar and has in less than three years.
• Youth unemployment: 11.5% of those aged 15–24 are out of work, rising to of those with tertiary education.
• Outbound mobility trends: 2022 OECD data count 52,800 Bangladeshi students abroad. Top destinations are the US, UK, Canada, Malaysia, Germany, and Australia.
• Key quote: “While the UK and the US remain favourites, an increasing number of students are turning to regional options like Malaysia, China, and even Japan, which offer affordable education and government-funded scholarships.”—

Indonesia

Indonesia’s economy has been softening in the past year but not to an alarming degree. The rate of inflation has come down, but this stimulus for consumer spending is offset by high borrowing costs. Indonesia boasts the world’s fourth largest population (286 million) and 41% of it is made up of youth aged 24 and under – a major reason it is such a compelling student source market.

Youth unemployment is a major issue, so focusing on career outcomes and post-study work opportunities will resonate in this market.

• GDP growth projection: 4.7–4.9% for 2025, with a gradual increase to 5.2% by 2026 (World Bank).
• Proportion of population in the middle class: 17%.
• Youth population: 41% under the age of 24.
• Currency performance: As of November 2025, the rupiah is trading around 16,700 per US dollar, marking a depreciation of about .
• Youth unemployment: 16% of those aged 15–24 are out of work (more than twice the proportion in Thailand and Vietnam), and a high proportion of the overall population resort to informal work (56%).
• Outbound trends: There are over 62,800 Indonesian students abroad for tertiary education (as per ) – up 29% over 2017. Top destinations are Australia, Malaysia, the US, Japan, the UK, and Germany.
• Key quote: “Graduates of secondary and tertiary education do not always match the needs of the labour market, and there is also a high proportion of informality. Indonesia has a very large number of young people, so the pressure on the labour market is much higher. We also have rapidly increasing levels of secondary and higher education. Many young college graduates avoid informal or low-paid jobs, so they choose to wait for suitable jobs, which leads to unemployment. There is a lack of effective vocational training and apprenticeship programmes compared with neighbours such as Vietnam or Malaysia. In Malaysia, for example, there are more industry-university linkage schemes and graduate employability programmes.”—Deniey Adi Purwanto, a lecturer at the Department of Economics at IPB University in Bogor, as quoted in .

Nepal

There is considerable debate about prospects for Nepal’s economy in 2026. For example, the IMF expects GDP to grow by 5.2% in 2026 if political tensions ease and tourism revenue and agricultural output are robust. But the World Bank has revised its 2026 forecast to only 2.1% for reasons including civil unrest, loss of investor confidence, a drop in tourism, and poor harvests.

The wildly different forecasts underline the extreme vulnerability of Nepal to climate change and to the vicissitudes of tourism trends. If the weather is good, agriculture drives economic growth – if it not, it can result in devastating losses for the many Nepalese who work in this sector. The same is true for tourism.

A mass youth uprising in September ousted the government and left 72 people dead and more than a thousand injured across the country. Youth are fed up with corruption and economic mismanagement, and the protests were sparked by social media posts by Nepal’s elite “nepo babies” flaunting purchases of luxury brands as well as a (this ended four days later after more than 20 protesters were killed). Nepal is one of the poorest countries in the world, and one in three households receives remittances.

The ouster of the government has not yet returned the country to complete stability given profound political divisions and continuing frustration among youth about their lack of opportunities for upward economic mobility.

• GDP growth projection: 2.1% (World Bank) to 5.2% (IMF).
• Proportion of population in the middle class: 33%.
• Youth population: 47% below the age of 24.
• Currency performance: As of November 2025, the Nepalese rupee is trading at 141.7–142.3 per US dollar marking a over the last 12 months.
• Youth unemployment: , well above the global average of 15.7%.
• Outbound mobility trends: Over , going mainly to Australia, Japan, Canada, the US, the UK, and India.
• Key quote: “To save, or even live properly, someone from the family has to go out. It’s almost like an unsaid tradition.” —Tenzin Dolker, a college student in Kathmandu who studies computer science, speaking with the .

Vietnam

Vietnam is one of Asia’s star performers in terms of its economy. Committed to diversification, the government has set a growth target of 10% for 2026, though organisations such as the World Bank and the IMF are more conservative, forecasting anywhere from 6% to 8%.

The Vietnamese government has set its ambitious growth target based on planned investments in infrastructure, the Green Economy, semiconductors, and AI, and it is determined to attract more foreign investment and to expand trade with a widened range of countries. However, a volatile global trade environment and US/China tensions pose risks.

Part of the reason for Vietnam’s economic expansion is its growing middle class, which is boosting domestic consumption. The middle class is forecast to – which will be a remarkable achievement if it happens. In addition, Vietnam is a formidable manufacturing hub, especially in the areas of garments and electronics.

Vietnamese families have always been committed to study abroad if they can afford it, and the fact that so many more families can now afford it makes Vietnam one of the most promising outbound student markets today. About are currently abroad for education.

• GDP growth projection: 6-8% in 2026
• Size of middle class: 26%, .
• Youth population: 39% under the age of 24.
• Currency performance: The dong is currently trading at about 25,300 per US dollar, but it is expected to slide about , according to BMI.
• Youth unemployment: – and all-time high. This is still low compared to the global average, however.
• Outbound mobility trends: Nearly according to the Vietnamese government, with main destinations being South Korea, Japan, Australia, the US, Taiwan, China and Canada.
• Key quote: “As other large markets like India and Nigeria face more volatility due to shifting policy or affordability concerns, Vietnam offers institutions a high-potential and reliable pathway for diversification and long-term enrolment growth.”—Meti Basiri, CEO of ApplyBoard, speaking with

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Capital: Kathmandu

Population: 29.6 million (2024)

Youth population: 21% of the population is aged 16–25, and more than half are under the age of 25.

Median age: 23.5

GDP: US$44.1 billion (2024)

Currency: Nepalese rupee (NPR)

Language: Nepali is spoken by 78% of the population, and Maithili is the next-most spoken language. However, over 123 languages are spoken, and in some districts, more than half of residents are non-Nepali speakers.

Main language of instruction: In general, students learn in Nepali in public schools and English in private schools. There is controversy around how this impacts students for whom Nepali is the second tongue and English the third.

English proficiency: “Moderate” and climbing according to the EF Proficiency Index.

Religion: The vast majority of Nepalis are Hindu, and a small proportion are Buddhists.

Geography: Nepal is in South Asia. The country is landlocked: China is to the north and India shares borders in the south, east, and west.

Outbound students: Over 100,000. In 2021, the outbound mobility ratio was 19%.

Preferred destinations: Australia, Japan, Canada, US, UK, India.

Top fields of study for Nepalis: Japanese language programmes in Japan, followed by accounting, management, business, information technology, science, computer science, engineering, health, and science and technology, according to the number of No Objection Certificates (NOCs) issued by the government of Nepal between July 2023 and July 2024.

Scale of opportunity

In the past five years, approximately one in every five Nepali students pursuing higher education chose to study abroad. Nepal’s outbound mobility ratio was 19% in 2021, compared with less than 2% for China and India. This provides a clear indication of how high demand is for study abroad in this small South Asian nation.

At home, Nepali students seeking degrees do not have many high-quality tertiary options. None of Nepal’s nine universities and three medical institutions recognised by Nepal’s Ministry of Education make it into the major world university rankings, and erratic quality and delivery of education is a feature of the tertiary education system.

The high outbound student mobility ratio mirrors a workforce trend, which is that hundreds of thousands of Nepalis go abroad to work every year. reports that according to the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), “remittances from migrant workers contributed up to 26.6% of Nepal’s GDP, valued at an estimated $11 billion, in 2023.” In many cases, those remittances are helping families to send their children abroad to earn degrees and training and to receive more career opportunities than Nepal can offer them.

What’s behind the high level of outbound?

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) ranks Nepal on the Human Development Index. The ranking is improving but is still low enough that it suggests why many Nepalis move to the Middle East to work, and increasingly to Europe, which is viewed as more prestigious. reports that four in five Nepali households have a family member abroad.

There is a tension here: Nepalis are moving out of their country, which leads to brain drain, but once abroad, they send money back home that contributes to Nepal’s national GDP and helps families afford costs of living. The average hourly wage in Nepal is less than US$4. The heavy reliance on remittances also means that Nepal is incredibly vulnerable to external shocks, such as tightened immigration settings or economic downturns in preferred destinations.

Private consumption, fuelled by remittances, accounts for 80% of Nepal’s GDP. notes that real GDP growth in 2024 accelerated to 3.9%, compared with 2% in 2023. It says that despite challenges – such as low public infrastructure funding including in the education sector – it is more optimistic about Nepal’s future after successful elections in 2017:

“There is a newfound optimism for greater political stability, inclusion, good governance and sustainable growth. The new federal structure presents unprecedented opportunities for Nepal to reset its development storyline, as outlined in the Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD).”

Generally low quality of education is also a major reason Nepali students go abroad. Stella Thapa, a student at the Kathmandu University School of Management, explains on :

“Universities of Nepal such as Tribhuvan University (TU) face ongoing issues that affect academic progress and student satisfaction. Problems include delays in publishing exam schedules, irregularities in exams and academic calendars, and extended completion times for degree programmes. Many students who aim to finish their studies in four years often find themselves graduating in five to six years, which can be disheartening and demotivating. However, few universities offer quality and advanced educational programmes. Students often question whether their qualifications will translate into promising job opportunities and successful careers in Nepal.”

Especially scarce in Nepal are high-quality degrees in engineering, medicine, and technology.

Working while studying is important for many Nepali students

The Nepal Economic Forum explains that in addition to remittances, many Nepali students fund study abroad by working overseas:

“It is the students who fund their studies themselves by working. This is evidence worldwide when we see Nepali students working in restaurants across the US, UK, Europe, Japan or Australia.”

The organisation also reports that 85% of Nepali households own their own house. Not paying rent frees up some income for study abroad.

The latest (2022) found that Nepali students are highly price sensitive, especially about accommodation. Price was the top factor for Nepali students looking for accommodation (87% vs 61% for all international students), and “kitchen size and facilities were much more important to these students than most internationals (71% vs 57%).”

Where are Nepali students going?

Nepal’s Ministry of Education issued 112,595 foreign study permits (known as No Objection Certificates, or NOCs) to students in the last fiscal year. Ms Thapa, in her post on LinkedIn, reports that those students went to 66 different destinations, but 80% went to just five countries: Japan, Canada, Australia, UK, and the US. A total of 34,370 NOCs went to students going to Japan, followed by those headed to Canada (15,980), Australia (14,370), the UK (13,340), the US (11,260), and South Korea (6,890).

Other destinations for which more than 1,000 NOCs were granted were India, UAE, Denmark, Finland, France, and New Zealand.

ApplyBoard illustrates the remarkable growth of Nepali students in Canadian and US higher education institutions over the past few years in the charts below (Canada is the first chart, and the US is the second).

ApplyBoard also notes that Nepali students remain interested in the UK despite the inability of most to bring their family due to the dependant’s ban imposed by the previous government. Over 8,500 Nepali students received a main applicant visa for the UK in 2023 (+83% y-o-y). In Q1 2024 alone, 27% more visas were granted to Nepali students compared with Q1 2023. What’s interesting about the 2024 trend is that it contrasts with a 22% decline in visas granted to all international students in the UK.

Australia is the outlier among the Big Four destinations, with policy changes in Nepal and Australia contributing to a big drop in Nepali student numbers (as shown in the chart below), especially in the vocational sector.

Meanwhile in Japan, the number of Nepali students surged to over 45,000 in 2023 according to , making Nepal the second largest sending market after China. The surge also displaced Vietnam as Japan’s number two sending market. Even after Japan raised international student tuition fees in the summer of 2024, the cost of studying in Japan is still much less than in the Big Four destinations. Many Nepali graduates in Japan go on to work in sectors such as hospitality and nursing.

What are projections for growth?

A chart from a new Sinorbis study, Asia Atlas: The future of international student marketing in Asia, is a dramatic illustration of how many Nepali students will head abroad for higher education in the next few years. From 23rd place in 2022 (40,560), Nepal is projected to become the 7th largest sender of students in 2025 (113,395).

Sinorbis presents a similarly impressive graph projecting Nepali higher education enrolments in the US.

Sinorbis data also show that Nepali students are especially drawn to healthcare-related fields in the US.

Popular levels of study

Good graduate programmes are in short supply in Nepal, and so there is strong demand for graduate as well as undergraduate studies. IIE Open Doors data for 2022/23 shows that 42% of Nepali enrolments were undergraduate (+39% y-o-y) and 37% were graduate (+21% y-o-y). reported in 2022 that “mobility is expected to grow particularly at the graduate level—a sector that is underdeveloped in Nepal with less than one percent of university campuses offering Ph.D. programmes.”

In 2023, Nepal’s government stopped issuing NOCs for language and vocational programmes, but a popular backlash forced it to reverse the ruling. It did, however, create a list of eligible foreign institutions for students interested in language or vocational training. Grace International provides a primer on how students must apply for an NOC .

Pre-tertiary education system

The devastating earthquakes in Nepal in 2015 set back the progress the country had made previously on expanding access to education. Many schools were destroyed, more than 9,000 killed, and more than 22,000 injured. In 2022, only 27% of students completed upper secondary schooling, falling to 10% among the poorest households and rising to 59% in the richest households, according to UN���Ϲ���. In a reversal of historical trends, girls now have a higher completion rate at every level of schooling than boys.

In terms of achievement, students who speak Nepali at home have better outcomes than those who speak another language and then go to school to be instructed in Nepali. The dearth of instruction in other native languages of Nepal are a subject of great . Middle class and wealthy Nepali households tend to send their children to schools where English is the main language of instruction.

Free primary and secondary education is meant to be a right for Nepali students, but the reality is that at the secondary level, there are significant fees parents must pay (e.g., books, uniforms), which is part of the reason for the high dropout rate among poorer Nepali students.

Private schools are the preferred option for those who can afford them. The share of private schools is 20%, while public (aka community) schools account for 80%. As for enrolments, 27% are in private schools and 72% in public. explains that:

“The education system has been so privatised that a huge learning gap has opened up between those that can afford private schools and those that can’t. The facilities at private schools are noticeably better. Many families try to live in Kathmandu where they have access to the best schools. Children at these school dress in crisp, clean uniforms and study in English and Nepali.

There is huge discrepancy between private and public schooling a major social injustice. Uttam Sanjel, the founder of Bamboo School’s for the poor told AFP. “There are two kinds of schooling. The public school students do not know how to speak in English even when they leave school. The private school students can send emails to their parents from grade two. This is not how it should be. It is wrong because it will create two kinds of citizen.”

Clearly, lower-income Nepali students will be highly motivated by scholarships because they may not be able to study abroad without them.

There are several international schools, which can be explored .

Many Nepali students will need foundational programmes to set them up for success in higher education due to uneven quality of education at home or language issues.

Tertiary education

Nepali students do not have many high-quality tertiary options in their country. None of Nepal’s nine universities and three medical institutions recognised by Nepal’s Ministry of Education make it onto major world university rankings. However, ranks Tribhuvan University 962nd in the world and considers its clinical medicine, environment/ecology, and public, environmental and occupational health programmes to be worthy of recognition.

The full list of universities is:

• Tribhuvan University
• Nepal Sanskrit University
• Kathmandu University
• Purbanchal University
• Pokhara University
• Lumbini Bauddha University
• Sudur Paschimanchal University
• Madhya Paschimanchal University
• Agriculture and Forestry University

Under the umbrella of those public universities (except for Kathmandu University, which is privately funded and autonomous) are hundreds of colleges and campuses. Many of these are privately owned. The private colleges are considered to offer higher quality education than public ones.

There is also a growing number of foreign-affiliated tertiary programmes in Nepal, with institutions from Scotland, UK, Malaysia, Poland, Switzerland, and Thailand active in this space. A full list can be found .

The outlook

The British Council forecasted outbound mobility patterns in 30 major student sending markets in an early-2024 report. It found that the growth rate will slow in most of those markets. However, Nepal was categorised as having high growth potential along with high market risk, in part because of economic and political volatility in the country.

The top motivations for Nepali students are scholarships and the ability to work during studies. It is worth considering a scholarship programme to solidify a presence in Nepal for many reasons, not least because Nepal has one of the world’s fastest growing populations of 18–22-year-olds – along with limited job prospects. The youth unemployment rate hovers at 20% and is the third highest in South Asia after Bhutan and Sri Lanka. Until the government is able to commit more budget to education, it is likely demand for study abroad will remain very high in Nepal.

For additional background, please see:

• “Outbound mobility trends for five key sending markets in Asia”

The post Market snapshot: International student recruitment in Nepal appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

“According to records at the Nepal Rastra Bank, students sent US$571 million (NPR75 billion) to different countries to pay their fees in the last 11 months of the fiscal year 2022-23. As much as US$515 million (NPR68 billion) flowed out of the country in the 2021-22 financial year.”

More than 125,000 Nepali students went abroad in 2022, with most opting to study in Australia, Japan, India, and the United States.

Some believe the focus should not be on dissuading students from leaving Nepal, but rather on enticing them to come back. Rajendra Baral, chairperson of the Educational Consultancy Association of Nepal, told University World News that:

“Those travelling abroad not only get an international standard education but also get huge exposure [internationally]. The focus of the government should be on creating an environment to bring them back home after they complete their studies rather than trying to obstruct them from flying.”

The number of Nepalis working, studying, and living abroad is significant, as shown in the following map from the .

An education system under pressure

Many families in Nepal consider study abroad a necessary expense (and financial sacrifice) because their domestic education system is underfunded and suffers due to a lack of qualified teachers.

Cost-cutting measures in the pandemic disproportionately affected teachers, who saw their to the point some were struggling with day-to-day expenses. And in April 2023, some retired teachers while retired military professionals were paid, providing a stark indication of the government’s priorities.

The worrisome state of the education system was highlighted when more than half of Nepali students who sat for their June 2022 Grade 12 examinations to study at the bachelor’s level.

Will the tax rate increase slow Nepali outbound?

There is natural worry among foreign educators with a strong brand presence in Nepal that the 3% tax will make study abroad too expensive for Nepali families, especially at a time when in the country. Nepal is a top market for Australia and Japan especially, and it has become more important for Canada and the US as well.

An article in the Nepali Times provides a clear illustration of how much some educators now rely on Nepali students:

“At a recent graduation ceremony of one Australian university, 300 students paraded across the stage to receive their diplomas. All were Nepalis, except one. The only white people there were faculty members. A back-of-the-envelope calculation shows that at an average cost of US$30,000 per year for their undergraduate education Nepali students spent US$15 million in just that one university in Australia…The Sydney Morning Herald reported recently that the ‘Nepal market’ was worth AUS$2.6 billion to Australia in 2018/19, up from AUS$1.6 billion the previous year. Nepal is the third biggest source of international students in Australia accounting for 7% of them.”

The millions of dollars Nepali students are spending abroad contrasts with other trends in Nepal’s economy, notes the Nepali Times:

“A conservative estimate shows that Nepalis spent a whopping $3.3 billion for education overseas in just the first six months of this year. By comparison, Nepal’s annual petroleum import bill has risen to $2.5 billion, and tourism brought in less than $1 million in 2019.”

The contrasting trends underline the challenge Nepal’s government finds itself facing regarding outbound student flows from the country. With youth unemployment a persistent issue, attracting Nepali students back to the country after their foreign studies are completed is .

Those who do want to return are often frustrated by bureaucratic processes. Speaking with the this month, Aastha Dahal, who holds a PhD from the University of Cambridge, said she has had to struggle for an equivalence certificate from , Nepal’s oldest and largest university. She said, “There are plenty of students suffering due to this and many have already left the country.”

Dirgha Raj Joshi, a Nepali student in the US, told the Times:

“I can apply anywhere in the world before completion of my PhD, but there are no vacancies in my country. Even for the post of professor, I have to take a written exam, and it takes years to get the results. I will go through all this process, but before this, I have to get my degree equivalence certificate as I studied abroad. When the country’s youth do not see future in their own country, the future of that country will never be bright.”

For additional background, please see:

• “Government of Nepal moves again to curb non-degree study abroad”
• “Outbound mobility trends for five key sending markets in Asia“

The post Government of Nepal increases taxes for Nepali students studying abroad appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

All outbound students must apply to the Ministry of Education, Science and Technology (MOEST) for a No Objection Certificate, or NOC. Students who cannot secure an NOC are not permitted to pursue studies overseas, nor can they send funds abroad. This requirement is enshrined in legislation, which clearly sets out that, “No citizen of Nepal shall go abroad for higher studies without receiving no objection letter to be issued by the Ministry of Education.”

More than 100,000 NOCs were issued in the 2021/22 fiscal year, and the country has been on track for a similar volume in 2022/23 (the fiscal year begins and ends in July).

In essence, the NOC is a mechanism of government control over outbound student mobility. And the Nepalese government has, at various points over the last decade, shown its willingness to exercise that control.

In 2016, for example, a new law was passed stipulating that NOCs would only be approved for degree programmes abroad. The Ministry of Education, however, has continued to issue NOCs for all levels of study in the years since.

That pattern was briefly interrupted on 12 June 2019 when the government abruptly announced that that it would no longer issue NOCs for students pursuing diploma or language studies abroad. That order was subsequently quashed via a 20 June 2019 stay order from Nepal’s Supreme Court which called on the Ministry to provide additional justification for limiting NOCs to degree-seeking students.

On 5 April 2023, the government moved again to ban non-degree study abroad with a new directive indicating that NOCs would no longer be issued for language or diploma studies.

“The directive was issued as per our legal provisions which say the NOC would be issued to study higher education abroad,” Krishna Kapri, a joint secretary at the ministry of education, told . “Bachelor’s and courses beyond that level are considered higher education.”

Separate statements from the Ministry of Education this month have indicated that NOCs would only be issued for language studies if such courses are “embedded” within degree programmes.

The reasons for the move are unclear but various media reports have pointed to concerns around “capital flight” (that is, the amount of funds being sent outside the country to support study abroad) as well as declining enrolments in Nepali universities and colleges.

Especially alarming for Australia and Japan

As we reported recently, a number of destinations have recorded significant growth in Nepali enrolments in recent years. However, Australia and Japan remain the clear favourites for Nepali students, with the former especially popular for vocational studies and the latter for Japanese language courses (often as a path to further study in Japan).

(ITECA) is the peak body for private-sector vocational institutes and training providers, and it has been quick to raise the issue with Nepal’s consular officials in Australia.

“In a crushing move for Australia’s international education sector, the Nepalese government has stopped issuing no objection certificates for students planning to study skills training or language courses abroad,” said Troy Williams, ITECA’s chief executive. “ITECA is committed to working through the issues with both the Nepalese and Australian governments with the aim of ensuring that international students from Nepal can once again access quality skills training courses in Australia.”

Agency associations in Nepal have been quick to raise the alarm as well, with several delegates joining a briefing on the NOC issue with Ministry officials in Kathmandu on 10 April. “Not all students can afford to join colleges and universities. Only those with deep pockets will get to study abroad with the new rules. This is discriminatory,” said Santosh Pyakurel, chair of the (NECA).

“We have expressed our deep concern on some provisions like restrictions in NOC for language, vocational diploma, and advanced diploma.” added Hemanta Bhattarai, the president of the (IERIN).

The associations are once again demanding that the ban on non-degree study be withdrawn, and it remains to be seen, as was the case in 2019, whether or not the courts will once again intervene in the matter.

For additional background, please see:

• “Outbound mobility trends for five key sending markets in Asia“
• “Nepalese government signals willingness to limit study abroad“

The post Nepalese government moves again to curb non-degree study abroad appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

We use as our baseline, then factor in more recent data from government sources where available to determine mobility volumes in 2022. That means our outbound count is a combination of the most recent UNESCO data and more updated statistics from various government sources (Australia, Canada, UK, and United States – and sometimes other destinations). Please note: Australian, Canadian, and US data includes enrolments in other sectors as well as higher education.

In brief, outbound mobility from the five countries is up significantly since 2020 – sometimes nearly doubling. When we note increases, these represent year-over-year growth unless otherwise indicated.

Bangladesh

The most recent UNESCO data (2020) counts 49,150 Bangladeshi students abroad in higher education. In 2022, numbers grew to more than 70,000 Bangladeshi students abroad (including other sectors). Canada, the UK, and US are clearly recruiting more intensely in Bangladesh given growth over the past couple of years.

The UK, Canada, and UAE are the top three destinations at the moment for Bangladeshi students.

• UK: 12,700 in 2021/2022 (+90% y-o-y)
• Canada: 12,295 in 2022 (+24.5%)
• UAE: 11,150 in 2020 according to UNESCO
• US: 10,600 in 2021/22 (+23%) according to IIE Open Doors data
• Australia: 7,250 in 2022 (+17%)
• Malaysia: 6,600 in 2021
• Germany: 3,930 in 2020 according to UNESCO
• Japan: 2,800 in 2020
• India: 2,750 in 2020
• South Korea and Saudi Arabia: Roughly 2,500 in 2020 (combined)

Plus smaller volumes in other countries.

Nepal

The most recent UNESCO data (2020) counts 95,270 Nepalese students abroad in higher education. In 2022, Nepal was sending out at least 125,500 students (including enrolments in other sectors). A student survey conducted by Indian think tank IC3 revealed strong demand for study abroad among Nepalese high school students, and this finding seems to have been very much on point.

The top three hosts of Nepalese students are Australia, Japan, and India.

• Australia: 57,190 in 2022 (+25% y-o-y)
• Japan: 24,260 in 2022 according to JASSO (+29%)
• India: 13,575 according to UNESCO and Statista
• US: 11,780 in 2021/22 (+5.5%) according to IIE’s Open Doors data
• Canada: 7,745 in 2022 (+258%)
• UK: 4,920 in 2021/22 according to HESA
• Cyprus, South Korea, Germany: Collectively, over 6,000 in 2020 according to UNESCO

Plus smaller volumes in other countries.

Pakistan

The most recent UNESCO data (2020) counts 64,065 Pakistani students abroad in higher education. Outbound mobility from Pakistan was over 103,190 in 2022 when we consult more recent statistics published by government sources in various destinations. There have been large increases in Pakistani students recorded recently in the UK, Australia, US, Canada, and Germany.

The top three destinations for Pakistani students currently are UAE, UK, and Australia.

• UAE: 24,865 in 2020 according to UNESCO
• UK: 23,075 in 2021/22 (+62% y-o-y)
• Australia: 15,875 in 2022 (+15%)
• US: 8,770 in 2021/22 (+17%)
• Germany: 7,115 in 2021/22 (+22%)
• Canada: 6,405 in 2022 (+38%)
• Kyrgyzstan: 6,000 in 2020 according to UNESCO
• Malaysia: 4,700 in 2021
• Turkey: 2,385 in 2020 according to UNESCO
• Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Sweden, Qatar: At least 4,000 in 2020 according to UNESCO

Plus smaller volumes in other countries.

Philippines

The most recent UNESCO data (2020) counts 26,162 Filipino students abroad in higher education. If we look at total enrolments – very important for this market because of its demand for shorter courses and vocational or college programmes – there are roughly 62,000 Filipino students abroad in 2022, particularly because of a huge flow of Filipino students to Canada.

The top three destinations for Filipino students currently are Canada, Australia, and the US.

• Canada: 32,455 in 2022 (+112%)
• Australia: 17,975 in 2022 (+25%)
• US: 3,270 in 2021/22 (+13%)
• UAE: 2,250 in 2020 according to UNESCO
• UK: 2,000 in 2020 according to UNESCO
• Japan, Saudi Arabia, New Zealand, Jordan: Close to 4,000 collectively according to UNESCO

Plus smaller volumes in other countries

Thailand

The most recent UNESCO data (2020) counts 32,066 Thai students abroad in higher education. The number of Thai students abroad in all sectors has grown moderately to about 40,720 in 2022.

The top three destinations for Thai students currently are Australia, UK, and US.

• Australia: 19,360 in 2022 (+78%)
• UK: 5,405 in 2022 (+21%)
• US: 5,010 in 2021/22 according to IIE’s Open Doors report
• Canada: 2,755 in 2022 (+78%)
• Egypt: 2,955 in 2020 according to UNESCO
• Japan: 2,735 in 2022 (+15% but down from a high of 3,415 in 2020)
• Germany, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, New Zealand: Collectively over 2,500 in 2020

Notes on China

China’s borders were mostly closed to international students till 2023. As a result, China’s foreign enrolment dropped significantly from the start of the pandemic (2020) to 2023. Still, we will note 2018 figures given that Chinese borders are now open again and China has resumed active recruitment in its top markets – many of which are in Asia.

, there were 10,735 Bangladeshi students, 28,600 Thai students, and 28,025 Pakistani students.

Data Sources

Much of the data for this article comes from the following sources:

• Canadian immigration data (IRCC)
• US immigration data

For additional background, please see:

• “Canada’s foreign enrolment grew by more than 30% in 2022”
• “Foreign enrolment in US rebounded in 2021/22 and is approaching pre-pandemic levels”
• “UK foreign enrolment takes another leap driven by students from China, India, and Nigeria”
• “Surge in new students has ELICOS sector leading Australian growth for 2022”
• “Agent survey tracks key factors for study abroad planning in China and South Asia”

The post Outbound mobility trends for five key sending markets in Asia appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

The research helps to illuminate why students from the region are increasingly considering a wider array of destinations. There is a distinct relationship between a destination’s popularity and its (1) affordability and (2) immigration policies.

3 in 10 plan to study abroad

The survey found that 44% of Indian and Nepali high school students plan to study in India after they graduate, 29% want to study abroad, and 19.5% aren’t sure yet what they will do. Interestingly, only 7% plan to take a gap year “due to the Coronavirus,” and less than 1% said they would go straight on after high school to a job. That three in ten Indian and Nepalese students say they plan to study broad – even as the pandemic continues – is striking evidence of the high level of demand from this region.

Of course, the reality is that COVID-19 will delay or cancel some study abroad plans, as much as students would rather this not be the case. But at this stage, half of surveyed students (52%) said it was too early to tell whether the virus would impact their plans – a finding that underlines the importance of keeping communications going with prospects regardless of whether COVID-19 cross-border travel restrictions are in place.

Quality trumps prestige

The top motivator for Indian and Nepali students who want to study abroad is a perception that the quality of education is better (68%), followed by a sense that “overseas institutions offer a more flexible curriculum” (51%), and that “studying abroad leads to professional success” (44%). Notably, the “prestige of a foreign degree” was cited by only 24% – a percentage that would almost certainly have been higher 5–10 years ago. Indian and Nepalese students are looking for high-quality degrees that prepare them for good careers – and these degrees do not have to necessarily be from institutions in the traditional destinations of the US and UK for many students. In fact, Canada (64%) is now almost as popular as the UK (67%) as a study destination for Indians and Nepali; Australia is also a strong competitor (41%).

Affordability and job opportunities top priorities

While the US is still #1 in surveyed students’ minds (75%), students’ responses to other questions illuminate why they are also considering other destinations.

For example, more than half of Indian and Nepali students said that affordability and ability to get a job after studying was “very important” – only “quality of teaching” edged out these two factors. Canada and Australia are both compelling destinations, relatively speaking, when assessed according to affordability and post-study work rights; both have in fact developed policies to help protect work rights for international students faced with COVID-19 travel restrictions.

The UK has also recently become more competitive as it has restored two-year post-study work visas (three years for PhD students).

If affordability and work opportunities are “pull” factors for Indian and Nepali students considering study abroad, factors that would instead make them decide against a destination include:

• Unfavourable immigration policies (54%)
• Inability to work after graduation (50%)

Here again, we get an insight into why Indian and Nepali students are considering a wider array of destinations. In the US – where the quality of higher education remains exceptional at top institutions – the current US administration has fostered a distinctly anti-immigration climate and moved to limit post-study work rights. Not coincidentally, Indian student numbers rose by just 2.9% in 2018/19. In contrast, these were the trends in major competitor destinations:

• Canada: The number of Indian students has increased by 351% over the past five years, and last year, a remarkable 65% of new international students came to Canada from India;
  
• Australia: India and Nepal were the biggest growth stories in 2019, with student numbers rising by 30% in just one year and Nepalese numbers up by 25%;
  
• UK: There was a significant surge in Indian students last year (35%) and further gains from this market are likely with the announcement of restored two-to-three-year post-study work rights.

The IC3 report notes,

“When asked about their post-study plans after completing their undergraduate degree in their country of choice, the majority reported wanting to stay back in the country either for further education (35%), or for future employment (27%), once again emphasising the importance of the post-study options that countries provide their international students.”

Indian students are also greatly influenced in their choice of destination by:

• Concern about personal safety and gun violence (62%)
• Concern about high crime rates (57%)
• Concern about racist attacks (54%)

After the US, UK, Canada, and Australia, the next most popular destination for surveyed Indian and Nepali students is Singapore (32%). Germany (27%) and France (15.5%) are also popular, and Indian student numbers in these countries have also been rising steadily.

Jobs on the brain

A striking finding from the report is that Indian high school students are likely to be highly engaged in discussions about their future career, highlighting the important role that career advisors can play in recruitment in India:

“Almost 70% of students are already beginning to think about their future employment prospects, with the remainder largely undecided. Two-thirds discuss future careers often with their peers and friends, but the remaining rarely or never do so. A similar proportion indicated that they had engaged in career-related conversations with career advisers, teachers and other professionals. Where such conversations did occur, the majority (84%) found them to be helpful.”

But here’s the problem – and the opportunity:

“While the majority of students (94%) agree or strongly agree that career and college counselling at this stage is very important for them, only 15% strongly agreed that the level of counselling currently available to them at school was adequate, with a further 37% agreeing.”

Desire for in-person education remains strong

The potential for strong demand from the Indian and Nepalese markets once COVID-19 travel restrictions ease is illustrated in the nearly three-quarters (72%) of surveyed students who disagreed or strongly disagreed that online education is a good substitute for in-person teaching and learning. These students remain optimistic even in the face of the pandemic, with 62% agreeing that “Despite COVID-19, I am optimistic about my future.”

For additional background, please see:

• “Rapid growth in Indian higher education system but report calls for sweeping reforms”
• “Comparing parent and student perceptions of leading study destinations”
• “Survey says post-study work rights a major factor in choice of destination”

The post Survey highlights continuing strong demand among Indian and Nepali students during COVID-19 appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

All Nepali students who have been admitted to an institution or school abroad must apply to the government for a No Objection Certificate, or NOC. Students who cannot secure an NOC are not permitted to pursue studies overseas, nor can they send funds abroad. This requirement is enshrined in legislation, which clearly sets out that, “No citizen of Nepal shall go abroad for higher studies without receiving no objection letter to be issued by the Ministry of Education.”

On 12 June, the Ministry of Education, Science and Technology announced that it would no longer issue NOCs for students pursuing diploma or language studies abroad. In a separate 12 June notice, the Ministry also advised that it would not longer provide NOCs to students who had not passed their Grade 12 exams in Nepal.

Both directives were given without advance notice or consultation, and immediately threw the study plans of in-process students into question, along with the prospects for new students to pursue college diploma programmes or language studies abroad. The Ministry’s shift in policy direction appears to be tied to recent difficulties reported by Nepali students abroad, and effectively means that only students admitted to degree studies abroad would be able to obtain an NOC.

In a media briefing, Maheshwor Sharma, chief of the No Objection Certificate Management section at the Ministry said, “We have decided to implement the legal provisions following a rise in the numbers of Nepali students facing problems abroad…A majority of such students are either taking diploma or language course.” Speaking to The Kathmandu Post on background, an anonymous Foreign Ministry official added, “The decision was taken after studying cases in Australia and other countries, where students in diploma courses suffered following the closure of their institutes.”

The International Education Representative Initiative of Nepal (IERIN) is one of several associations of Nepali education agents. Also in The Kathmandu Post, IERIN President Kumar Karki said that the government had erred in setting a complete ban on diploma or language studied abroad. “There are good colleges in New Zealand, for example, that offer diploma courses,” he added.

The growth story

The significance of these decisions is underscored by the rapid growth of Nepali outbound, with official government statistics indicating that just over 16,500 students went abroad in 2013/14. Five years later, in 2017/18, that number had nearly quadrupled with nearly 63,000 Nepali students enrolled overseas.

Of those, roughly half, or 32,000 students, received NOCs for study in Australia, and Nepal is now the third-largest sending market for Australia, after only China and India. Another quarter of that total outbound (15,500) went to Japan last year.

By some estimates, about half of all students bound for Australia are enrolled in diploma programmes, whereas most Nepali students in Japan begin their studies there in language courses.

The court intervenes

No sooner did the Ministry of Education announce its new policy than the country’s Supreme Court stepped in and ordered a stay on the decision to effectively ban diploma and language studies abroad. The stay order, issued by the court on 20 June, instructs the Ministry to provide additional justification for its decision within 15 days, after which the court will make a further ruling on the new policy.

from the Australian Department of Education and Training reflects that the stay order has effectively suspended the ban and indicates that students admitted to diploma or language programmes are still being issued NOCs.

The statement notes that, “The Department of Education and Australian Government agencies have been working with the Nepalese Government to clarify the notice and the subsequent Supreme Court order…The Department of Education have since consulted with the Secretary of Nepal’s Ministry of Education on 27 June and received clear advice that No Objection Certificates (NOCs) are being issued as per arrangements prior to the [12 June] notice.”

The expectation now is that the Supreme Court will arrive at a further ruling in the immediate future and that the Ministry practice regarding NOCs for diploma and language studies will be set as a result. If indeed the Ministry’s 12 June directives are upheld, this will no doubt be a significant curb on outbound growth from Nepal.

Whatever the outcome, these recent developments once again highlight the important levers held by governments around the world that can have a direct and, in some cases, immediate impact on student mobility.

For additional background, please see:

• “From the field: An agent’s perspective on recruiting in Nepal”
• “Signs of growth in Nepal”
• “Nepal emerging as an important growth market for international education”

The post Nepalese government signals willingness to limit study abroad appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

In Australia, for example, where Nepal is now the third-largest sending market (after only China and India), student numbers increased by 51% year-over-year from 2017 and total Nepalese enrolment in Australia is now approaching 50,000 students.

Japan saw strong growth last year as well. Nepal is also the third-ranked sending market for Japan (after only China and Vietnam), and the country’s institutions welcomed a 13% increase in Nepalese numbers last year – for a total enrolment of 24,300 in 2018 – which followed a 10% increase the year before.

And colleges and schools in the US saw their Nepalese enrolments increase by more than 14% last year to surpass 13,000 students. Nepal held its position last year as the US’s second-largest sending market in South and Central Asia, after only India.

As even these three examples reflect, the number of outbound students from Nepal now certainly exceeds 80,000. There are no reliable figures as to the total number of Nepalese students abroad, but even just working backwards from the data reported by a few top study destinations paints a picture of a rapidly growing market and one of the most important South Asian source countries for international students.

We recently sat down with Manish Dahal, the director of the Kathmandu-based education agency May Education Consultancy for his insights on this rapidly growing market. As he notes in our opening interview segment below, “The driving factors behind the high demand is that international degrees matter in Nepal. [Employers] give the first priority to people educated abroad.”

Mr Dahal explains that Nepalese students are considering a wider range of study destinations these days, including those within the region, notably India, where Nepalese students do not require a study visa.

Even so, the success rate of Nepalese students in obtaining student visas for other major host countries, such as Australia and the US, remains a major factor in the appeal of those destinations as well.

In our final interview segment below, Mr Dahal recommends that educators visit Nepal to build their local networks and learn about the market firsthand. Looking ahead, he sees continued growth for the future because of the very high value that the country’s students, parents, and employers place on international degrees.

For additional background, please see:

• “Signs of growth in Nepal”
• “Nepal emerging as an important growth market for international education”

The post An agent’s perspective on recruiting in Nepal appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.