It is no coincidence that the Key Five are all emerging countries in the Global South, where large proportions of students are open to emigrating, temporarily or permanently, because of limited local opportunities. This makes immigration officials tend to question whether study visa applicants are genuine students – i.e., interested in quality education, a high-skilled job, and remaining compliant with visa conditions – or individuals with little intent to study and great intent to migrate in any way they can. Unfortunately, many genuine students from the Global South are disadvantaged in their applications because of where they are from.

The impact of the visa rejection trend for students from emerging economies in Asia and Africa could be enormous across the global international education landscape – and beyond. Already, it is spurring fewer visa grants, reduced recruiting in high-risk markets, and more withdrawals from students eager to avoid a rejection on their student profile. Not surprisingly, commencements are trending down in leading study destinations, and this will pressure overall enrolments in the years ahead.

In this article, we will look at Key Five origin countries with regards to:

• Their importance to overall enrolments across the Big Four;
• Recent study visa rejection rates;
• Commencement trends (i.e., the volume of new students provided a study visa allowing them to enrol in a Big Four education institution).

Contribution to overall international student numbers

According to the most recent available enrolment data, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Nigeria, and Pakistan compose anywhere from 30% to 40%+ of the entire international student body in Big Four destinations.

Visa rejection rates for the Key Five

Having looked at the huge presence of Key Five students in the total international student populations of the Big Four, we’ll turn to recent visa refusal trends (where official data are available).

Bangladesh: Nearly three-quarters (73%) of Bangladeshi applicants for US F-1 visas were turned away in 2025. Bangladeshi students have in recent years been very likely to receive a visa for Australia (about a 5% rejection rate in 2024/25), but in February 2026, more than half (51%) of offshore applicants from Bangladesh were refused.

India: Indian students, who represent either the #1 or #2 source market across the Big Four, are now quite likely to be refused a study visa in those destinations. Rejection rates were 61% in the US (2025), 80% in Canada (Q2 2025), and 60% in Australia (February 2026). While only 7.5% were denied a sponsored study visa in the UK in Q4 2025–Q1 2026, this this was up from less than 4% in winter 2024/25.

Nepal: More than 8 in 10 (81%) Nepali applicants were rejected for a US F-1 visa in 2025, and in February 2026, the Australian study visa rejection rate for Nepal soared to 65%. Interestingly, Nepali students were more likely to be approved for a UK sponsored study visa in winter 2025/26 than in winter 2024/25, bucking the general trend for emerging markets (see chart below).

Nigeria: Since December 2025, Nigerians have been included in an expanded travel ban announced by the US administration, along with dozens of other countries (mostly in Africa and Asia). In the UK, sponsored study rejections for Nigerian students used to be rare (less than 5%), but in winter 2025/26, 20% of Nigerian applicants were turned away. In Canada, between 70–80% were refused a study permit in in 2025.

Pakistan: More than 70% of Pakistanis were refused an F-1 visa in the US in 2026, and more than 6 in 10 offshore applicants from Pakistan were denied an Australian study visa in February 2026. Like Nigerians, Pakistani students applying for a sponsored study visa in the UK saw their rejection rate spike massively in winter 2025/26: increasing from 5.6% to 41% year-over-year.

These rejection rates for Key Five countries represent an absolutely huge number of potential students turned away.

What is happening to commencements?

Key Five commencements (new student entrants) are falling across the Big Four, with less than a handful of exceptions.
 
A striking example is F-1 visa issuances in the US in July/August of 2024 compared with July/August 2025. The percentages in the table below are based on our analysis of data from the US Department of State. It bears mentioning that in September of 2025 (not shown in the table), F-1 commencements fell further for Bangladesh (-69%), Nepal (-96%), Nigeria (-33%), and Pakistan (-9%) compared with September 2024.

In the UK, the following chart from HESA shows the dramatic drop-off in Indian (turquoise) and Nigerian (navy blue) commencements between 2023/24 and 2024/25: -13% and -33%, respectively. Over the span of two years (2022/23 to 2024/25), the declines were even more serious: -33% for India (126,580 to 94,955) and -132% for Nigeria (53,790 to 23,160).

In Canada, new student arrivals (from all nationalities) fell from 208,750 in 2024 to 115,120 in 2025. In January to April 2026 compared with the same period in 2025, arrivals were down -73% to about 200,000. There is no publicly available government information for specific markets, but the Times of India reports that between January and August 2025, Canada issued just 9,955 new study permits to Indian students.

In Australia, overall commencements fell by about -15% between 2024 and 2025, but this decline was concentrated in sectors other than higher education (the number of new international students in Australian universities edged up slightly in that time period). There was more of a mixed bag of commencement trends for the Key Five than in Canada, the UK, and US. Between 2024 and 2025, Indian and Pakistani commencements fell by -3.5% and -33%, respectively, while Nepal was up +33.5% and Bangladesh +33%.

The implications will stretch beyond international education

Our Key Five markets – Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Nigeria, and Pakistan – can be viewed as roughly representative of what is happening to mobility influences and flows between the Global South and Big Four destinations. They serve to show how immigration policies (and/or policy effects) in the Big Four are affecting demand from top non-EU markets. These policies, especially if they stretch on in time, could lead to:

• An intensification of existing challenges for the operations of hundreds of universities, colleges, and schools across the Big Four. Those institutions are often highly reliant on international student tuition amid declining domestic enrolments and/or public funding. Chinese commencements (which, for decades, were an important source of overall growth) are falling, and emerging markets in Asia and Africa have helped to mitigate the impact.

• Alternative destinations gaining a greater share of the world’s internationally mobile students (this is already happening – see From the Big Four to the Big Fourteen for background).



• A decline in the economic contribution of international education in the Big Four.



• A weakening of innovation and productivity in Big Four economies. India, in particular, contributes a large volume of STEM students and workers to Western nations.



• An erosion of the soft power of the Big Four in the Global South.

Methodological note

Data analyses are based on statistics from:

• The Australian
• (IRCC)
• The UK’s (HESA)
• The in the US

For additional information, please see:

• “UK: International student numbers fall for second year, especially in postgraduate programmes“
• “UK: Sponsored study visa issuances down, rejection rates up, and more“
• “There are more international students in the US than ever in 2025, but commencements are declining“
• “Visa rejections climb in the US for international students from key markets including India“
• “New international student permit approvals for Canada fell below COVID levels in 2025“
• “Australia: Multiple data indicators signal further declines ahead for international student numbers“
• “Australia: Latest enrolment data challenges the government’s assertion of stability for international education this year“

The post What is happening to student mobility flows between the Global South and Global North?  appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

Capital: Islamabad

Population: More than 250 million (2024)

Youth population: Two-thirds of the population is under 30

Median age: 20.5

GDP: US$375 billion (2024)

Currency: Pakistan rupee (PKR)

Official languages: English and Urdu

Main language of instruction: English (especially in private schools) and Urdu (especially in public schools).

English proficiency: “Low” according to the EF Proficiency Index, and 10th of 23 countries in Asia.

Religion: Islam

Geography: Pakistan is in South Asia. It shares borders with Iran to the west, Afghanistan to the northwest and north, China to the northeast, and India to the east and southeast.

Outbound students: Over 100,000

Preferred destinations: UK, China, UAE, Australia, US, Malaysia

Top student cities: Lahore, Karachi, Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Faisalabad, and Peshawar

Pakistan is becoming an increasingly valuable recruiting ground for educators in leading destinations. A large segment of high-school and college-aged Pakistani students are interested in study abroad, and nearly half of Pakistan’s population is under the age of 20.

Market fundamentals

The market fundamentals are in some ways very strong. According to the (UNDP), Pakistan’s youth demographic is the largest in the world. Nearly two-thirds of the population is under the age of 30.

Pakistan is third, after only China and India, in terms of the size of its college-aged population. The British Council expects growth in Pakistani outbound mobility to be among highest in the world over the next decade, along with China, India, Nigeria, and Bangladesh.

Unfortunately, Pakistan is also a country where there is massive income inequality and limited opportunities for youth. The Commonwealth’s Youth Development Index for 2023 found that in South Asia, Pakistan is one of two countries that ranks “low.” WENR has written:

“Failure to integrate the country’s legions of youngsters into the education system and the labour market could turn population growth into what the Washington Post called a ‘disaster in the making … putting catastrophic pressures on water and sanitation systems, swamping health and education services, and leaving tens of millions of people jobless’—trends that would almost inevitably lead to the further destabilisation of Pakistan’s already fragile political system.”

Pakistan’s gross tertiary enrolment (GER) ratio was only 13% in 2023, according to UNESCO. This is much lower than in India, and lower than in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka as well. Of 109 countries UNESCO profiled in 2021, Pakistan’s tertiary GER was 100th. Given Pakistan’s huge college-aged population, there is serious unmet demand for higher education.

There are currently 4.5 million Pakistani students in secondary education (grades 9–10), and 2.5 million in upper-secondary education (grades 11–12). More than 25 million children aged 5–16 are “out-of-school” (36% of the cohort’s total population, a proportion similar to that in Nigeria).

Far more girls than boys do not complete school for a range of factors, including poverty and traditional views about the role of women. The literacy rate is 68% for adult men and 46% for adult women.

Regional disparities and opportunities

A Pakistani student’s access to education depends greatly on their household income, gender, and region. Just over a third (36%) of the population lives in cities, where there is more wealth and literacy, and where more schools are considered “functional.” In the poorest areas, many schools lack running water, plumbing, and electricity.

In an excellent report published in 2024 focused on regional opportunities in Pakistan, considers that, at the city level:

“Lahore, Karachi, and Islamabad will continue to provide the bulk of outbound students simply because of their population size. Second-tier cities, however, are proliferating. Faisalabad is large and fast-growing. Peshawar has begun to emerge as the next major city for outbound students….

Second-tier smaller cities are also seeing strong growth in demand for study abroad, especially in the Punjab (Gujranwala, Sialkot, Gujrat, Multan). Their economic growth lies in their connection to the bigger metropolitan areas, with a four or five-hour drive seen as an acceptable connection time. Important and growing industries in these second-tier cities mean that families have money to pay for education. Hence, industry growth has been matched by rapidly growing education provision. Large private school networks are also spreading out from the major cities to the smaller ones. These feed students directly into higher education.”

Further, students prefer certain destinations depending on where they live in the country:

• “Punjab, the largest and most populated region in Pakistan, is the largest contributor to student mobility to the UK. The UK has consistently been the top study destination, mainly through strong family connections with many fourth-generation families having well-established businesses in UK cities. Many political and business leaders of Pakistan from the region have also studied in the UK.

• In Islamabad and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, students mainly choose between the UK, North America and Australia. Often, the UK is not the top destination choice.

• Pakistan’s south region has the smallest population and includes Karachi and a few smaller cities. Students from this region mainly choose the US as a study destination.”

Outbound mobility trends

Leading destinations are all recording significant increases in Pakistani enrolments, and demand is especially high for postgraduate studies. Successive governments of Pakistan have slashed educational budgets, and one implication has been the closure of many graduate programmes, which is driving outbound mobility at this level.

Recent data on which destinations are hosting the most Pakistani students include:

• UK: 34,690 in 2022/23 (+50% y-o-y)
• China: 28,000 before the pandemic
• UAE: 24,865 in 2020 according to UNESCO
• Australia: 23,380 in 2023 (+49%)
• US: 10,165 in 2022/23 (+16%)
• Germany: 8,210 in 2022/23 (+22%)
• Kyrgyzstan: 6,000 in 2020 according to UNESCO
• Malaysia: 5,000 in 2023
• Canada: 4,750 in 2023 (+101%)
• Turkey: 2,385 in 2020 according to UNESCO
• Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Sweden, Qatar: At least 4,000 in 2020 according to UNESCO

Malaysian institutions are currently recruiting intensively in Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia has been increasing its scholarships for Pakistani students.

Meanwhile, educators in Canada, the US, and UK understand that while Chinese and Indian demand for study abroad remains high, it can be easily disrupted by immigration policies and geopolitics. It is worth noting that:

• found that January to June 2024, Pakistani student demand for the UK grew by over 30% compared to the same period in 2023.

• found that Pakistan was second only to India in terms of growth in demand for study abroad between 2022 and 2024 and that its share of enrolments, among the top-five student sending markets, is trending upward.

Transnational education

Thousands of Pakistanis are currently pursuing foreign degrees online, and they may soon be able to study for these degrees in-person in Pakistan. Pakistan’s Higher Education Commission (HEC) launched a revised transnational education policy in September 2024 that opens the door for foreign branch campuses. According to :

“Under the policy, foreign institutions can offer degree programmes in Pakistan if they are among the 700 top-ranked universities in the world. There are also specific requirements around local contexts, with institutions required to ‘strictly comply with and respect the constitutional provisions, local laws, and the ideology of Pakistan.’”

reports that “HESA data show that 11,715 students in Pakistan are taking UK qualifications through transnational education, with most choosing distance and online models.”

Middle-class pressures

After slowing in 2023 (following devastating floods in 2022), the Pakistani economy has recovered somewhat, and the Pakistani rupee has stabilised a bit relative to the US dollar. The agricultural sector was the main reason for growth, up 6% in 2024 compared with overall GDP growth of 2.5%. But the situation remains difficult, as you can see in the following chart from KPMG comparing economic indicators in Pakistan and India in 2024 versus 2023.

A 2017 estimate by Pakistani market research firm Aftab Associates put 40% of Pakistanis in the middle class, up substantially from previous years. But this proportion may be shrinking.

The middle class is shaky and dynamic due to a lack of internal structural stability in the economy. Pakistan is incredibly dependent on loans and other packages from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and allies such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, and China. For the 24th time, the approved a new loan in September 2024 in an “ongoing effort to strengthen macroeconomic stability, address deep structural challenges, and create conditions for a stronger, more inclusive, and resilient growth.”

In the meantime, Pakistanis are struggling due to persistently high inflation rates and currency fluctuations.

“The lower middle class has been really hit in the last few years,” Javaid Ghani, pro vice chancellor at Karachi’s Al Ghazali University, told the earlier this year. Many households “are struggling to hold on to the markers of a middle-class life as they are buffeted by higher food and energy prices.”

Pakistan’s independent newspaper, , featured an article in August 2024 that explained how current economic trends affect students aiming to study abroad:

“One of the primary challenges Pakistani students face in their quest to study abroad is financial affordability. Tuition fees, living expenses, and currency exchange rates often present insurmountable barriers for many Pakistani families because the value of the Pakistani Rupee has sunk to such depths that a single US dollar (August 7, 2024) costs around Rs278.5. Because of these circumstances, even the wealthiest people in Pakistan are forced to lead modest lives in developed countries. Managing spending becomes extremely challenging as the Pakistani currency’s value has diminished by more than 100%.”

When they undertake a cost analysis, Pakistani students find that overseas university tuition is surprisingly and excessively expensive. The ordinary Pakistani cannot afford the cost of international flights, rent, food, and transportation. In a developed foreign country, one can only purchase a cup of coffee with a monthly wage of Rs12,000 in Pakistan.”

As difficult as study abroad may be to afford, many families remain determined to secure a quality higher education for their children abroad, driven by a sense of hopelessness about opportunities in Pakistan. An Ipsos poll conducted in the summer of 2024 found that only 1 in 10 Pakistanis believe their country is headed in the right direction.

Muhammad Khan, a restaurant manager in the northern city of Rawalpindi who turns his fridge off in the day and works two jobs but who still cannot make ends meet, told the Wall Street Journal:

“The lower middle class, like us, is now just posing as white collar. Honestly, we are in the poor class now. Seeing the political situation, I have no hope.”

Private schools

Where there is hope, however, is in Pakistan’s thousands of private schools. These have ballooned from 3,000 in 1982 to 137,000+ in 2024. Almost half of Pakistani children attend private schools – many of them from lower-income households.

A fascinating study by researchers at Harvard explores what is behind the popularity of Pakistan’s for-profit, non-religious, fully autonomous private schools. It investigates why middle-class and poorer families are able to send their children to these schools, and finds:

“The key element in their rise is their low fees. They hire predominantly local, female, and moderately educated teachers who have limited alternative opportunities outside the village. Hiring these teachers at low cost allows the savings to be passed on to parents through low fees ….

At the time of writing, a typical private school in a village in Pakistan charged a fee of Rs. 1,000 per year (roughly $18). The countrywide data analyzed shows that fees are low for all the provinces in Pakistan, as well as within rural and urban regions within each province. The analysis shows that in rural areas, the median annual fee roughly translates to $1.50 a month, or less than—much less than a dime a day. Thus, these schools’ fees are affordable even for someone living at the dollar-a-day poverty line established as a global benchmark.”

The researchers also note that affordability does not mean lower quality:

“Despite lower levels of education and training, lower salaries in private schools do not imply lower educational quality. Because private schools are held accountable by parents, who may monitor teacher behavior and can withdraw their children if performance is poor, private schools have full incentives to hire the best available teachers who then exert high effort. Indeed, teacher absenteeism rates appear to be lower and student test scores higher in many private schools as compared to government schools.”

Government support for study abroad

The number of universities in Pakistan has been rising quickly, but quality is a major issue, as is government interference and underfunding. There are over 200 universities and 3,000 degree colleges (which are similar to community colleges) across the country.

To counter domestic higher education issues, the government supports study abroad, not least because personal remittances from Pakistanis abroad compose a significant portion of GDP (over 8% in 2022). says. “The substantial share of remittances highlights the importance of the Pakistani migrant community abroad in the economic development and stability of the country.”

Key motivations for students

Pakistani students are first and foremost interested in accessing a high-quality foreign degree to enhance their career prospects. Affordability is a major concern – and so scholarships are much sought-after. Similarly, the ability to work during studies and post-study work opportunities can make the difference in decision-making about where to go.

Recommended reading

We highly recommend checking out the following resources:

(2020), which includes assessment criteria and what official documents are recommended from Pakistani students.

The British Council’s 2023 report, .

The British Council’s 2024 report, .

For additional background, please see:

• Market snapshot: Nepal (2024)
• Market snapshot: Philippines (2024)
• Market snapshot: China (2024)

The post Market snapshot: International student recruitment in Pakistan appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

We use as our baseline, then factor in more recent data from government sources where available to determine mobility volumes in 2022. That means our outbound count is a combination of the most recent UNESCO data and more updated statistics from various government sources (Australia, Canada, UK, and United States – and sometimes other destinations). Please note: Australian, Canadian, and US data includes enrolments in other sectors as well as higher education.

In brief, outbound mobility from the five countries is up significantly since 2020 – sometimes nearly doubling. When we note increases, these represent year-over-year growth unless otherwise indicated.

Bangladesh

The most recent UNESCO data (2020) counts 49,150 Bangladeshi students abroad in higher education. In 2022, numbers grew to more than 70,000 Bangladeshi students abroad (including other sectors). Canada, the UK, and US are clearly recruiting more intensely in Bangladesh given growth over the past couple of years.

The UK, Canada, and UAE are the top three destinations at the moment for Bangladeshi students.

• UK: 12,700 in 2021/2022 (+90% y-o-y)
• Canada: 12,295 in 2022 (+24.5%)
• UAE: 11,150 in 2020 according to UNESCO
• US: 10,600 in 2021/22 (+23%) according to IIE Open Doors data
• Australia: 7,250 in 2022 (+17%)
• Malaysia: 6,600 in 2021
• Germany: 3,930 in 2020 according to UNESCO
• Japan: 2,800 in 2020
• India: 2,750 in 2020
• South Korea and Saudi Arabia: Roughly 2,500 in 2020 (combined)

Plus smaller volumes in other countries.

Nepal

The most recent UNESCO data (2020) counts 95,270 Nepalese students abroad in higher education. In 2022, Nepal was sending out at least 125,500 students (including enrolments in other sectors). A student survey conducted by Indian think tank IC3 revealed strong demand for study abroad among Nepalese high school students, and this finding seems to have been very much on point.

The top three hosts of Nepalese students are Australia, Japan, and India.

• Australia: 57,190 in 2022 (+25% y-o-y)
• Japan: 24,260 in 2022 according to JASSO (+29%)
• India: 13,575 according to UNESCO and Statista
• US: 11,780 in 2021/22 (+5.5%) according to IIE’s Open Doors data
• Canada: 7,745 in 2022 (+258%)
• UK: 4,920 in 2021/22 according to HESA
• Cyprus, South Korea, Germany: Collectively, over 6,000 in 2020 according to UNESCO

Plus smaller volumes in other countries.

Pakistan

The most recent UNESCO data (2020) counts 64,065 Pakistani students abroad in higher education. Outbound mobility from Pakistan was over 103,190 in 2022 when we consult more recent statistics published by government sources in various destinations. There have been large increases in Pakistani students recorded recently in the UK, Australia, US, Canada, and Germany.

The top three destinations for Pakistani students currently are UAE, UK, and Australia.

• UAE: 24,865 in 2020 according to UNESCO
• UK: 23,075 in 2021/22 (+62% y-o-y)
• Australia: 15,875 in 2022 (+15%)
• US: 8,770 in 2021/22 (+17%)
• Germany: 7,115 in 2021/22 (+22%)
• Canada: 6,405 in 2022 (+38%)
• Kyrgyzstan: 6,000 in 2020 according to UNESCO
• Malaysia: 4,700 in 2021
• Turkey: 2,385 in 2020 according to UNESCO
• Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Sweden, Qatar: At least 4,000 in 2020 according to UNESCO

Plus smaller volumes in other countries.

Philippines

The most recent UNESCO data (2020) counts 26,162 Filipino students abroad in higher education. If we look at total enrolments – very important for this market because of its demand for shorter courses and vocational or college programmes – there are roughly 62,000 Filipino students abroad in 2022, particularly because of a huge flow of Filipino students to Canada.

The top three destinations for Filipino students currently are Canada, Australia, and the US.

• Canada: 32,455 in 2022 (+112%)
• Australia: 17,975 in 2022 (+25%)
• US: 3,270 in 2021/22 (+13%)
• UAE: 2,250 in 2020 according to UNESCO
• UK: 2,000 in 2020 according to UNESCO
• Japan, Saudi Arabia, New Zealand, Jordan: Close to 4,000 collectively according to UNESCO

Plus smaller volumes in other countries

Thailand

The most recent UNESCO data (2020) counts 32,066 Thai students abroad in higher education. The number of Thai students abroad in all sectors has grown moderately to about 40,720 in 2022.

The top three destinations for Thai students currently are Australia, UK, and US.

• Australia: 19,360 in 2022 (+78%)
• UK: 5,405 in 2022 (+21%)
• US: 5,010 in 2021/22 according to IIE’s Open Doors report
• Canada: 2,755 in 2022 (+78%)
• Egypt: 2,955 in 2020 according to UNESCO
• Japan: 2,735 in 2022 (+15% but down from a high of 3,415 in 2020)
• Germany, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, New Zealand: Collectively over 2,500 in 2020

Notes on China

China’s borders were mostly closed to international students till 2023. As a result, China’s foreign enrolment dropped significantly from the start of the pandemic (2020) to 2023. Still, we will note 2018 figures given that Chinese borders are now open again and China has resumed active recruitment in its top markets – many of which are in Asia.

, there were 10,735 Bangladeshi students, 28,600 Thai students, and 28,025 Pakistani students.

Data Sources

Much of the data for this article comes from the following sources:

• Canadian immigration data (IRCC)
• US immigration data

For additional background, please see:

• “Canada’s foreign enrolment grew by more than 30% in 2022”
• “Foreign enrolment in US rebounded in 2021/22 and is approaching pre-pandemic levels”
• “UK foreign enrolment takes another leap driven by students from China, India, and Nigeria”
• “Surge in new students has ELICOS sector leading Australian growth for 2022”
• “Agent survey tracks key factors for study abroad planning in China and South Asia”

The post Outbound mobility trends for five key sending markets in Asia appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

In June of that year, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) announced the programme, the , and its initial implementation in China, India, Vietnam, and the Philippines.

The programme model aims to shorten processing times for students from those four key sending markets. In order to qualify for the programme, eligible students must demonstrate:

• Higher-than-average language skills (an IELTS score of at least 6.0 for English-language studies or a Niveaux de compétence linguistique canadiens score of at least 7);
• A certain level of financial security, to be shown through a Guaranteed Investment Certificate (GIC) of CAN$10,000 from Scotiabank of Canada and proof of tuition payment for the first year of studies.

In addition, students applying under SDS will need to show proof of having been accepted into a full-time programme at a Canadian learning institution that is designated to host international students and undergo a medical examination before applying.

Pakistan joins the programme

When the programme was officially announced in 2018, IRCC also indicated at the time that it intended to further expand SDS to other selected markets in the future, particularly those in Asia and Africa. The first such addition has just been announced with news last week that .

“Canada’s position as a top destination for students seeking a high-quality international education is strengthened when we provide fast, reliable processing of applications,” says an accompanying statement from IRCC. “The expansion of SDS supports the Government’s goal of attracting students from a more diverse range of countries.”

IRCC adds that most SDS applications made by students from eligible countries are being processed in under three weeks.

“Canada’s diverse, welcoming society, high-quality educational institutions and opportunities to work or immigrate after graduation have made Canada a leading destination of choice for students from around the world,” said Immigration Minister Ahmed Hussen. “By expanding the Student Direct Stream to a more diverse range of prospective students, we’re enhancing the tremendous cultural, social and economic benefits that international students provide.”

There were just under 4,000 Pakistani students with Canadian study permits in 2018, according to official IRCC statistics. Interestingly, the overall number of Pakistani students enrolled with Canadian institutions has been largely flat over the last six years (with roughly 4,000 students holding Canadian study permits in any given year). This in spite of the fact that total outbound from Pakistan (as reported by UNESCO) has grown by more than 40% over the same period to reach nearly 53,000 students abroad as of 2017.

Canadian educators will now hope to claim a greater share of this growing South Asian market, and there is some indication that SDS can have an important market effect. This is especially noticeable in the case of an early SDS country, Philippines, where total student numbers in Canada have more than doubled over the last three years to surpass 5,000 as of 2018.

For additional background, please see:

• “Survey reveals motivations of postgraduate students in emerging markets”
• “From the field: An agent’s view of recruiting in Pakistan”
• “Forecasts point to strong growth in outbound mobility for Pakistan”

The post Canada adds Pakistan to its expedited student visa programme appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

We say “slice” because the report essentially parses selected emerging market responses to the QS World Grad School Tour Applicant Survey gathered between June 2014 and June 2016. At 2,096 emerging market respondents, the sample size is small (especially on a per country basis) but nevertheless provides some interesting directional indicators for recruiters. All of those responding to the survey were in the process of applying for admission to postgraduate degree programmes abroad.

The survey zeroes in on four countries that are increasingly seen as significant emerging markets for international recruitment: Nigeria, Indonesia, Brazil, and Turkey. In most cases, QS has paired these priority targets with other promising markets from the same region: Brazil with Mexico and Colombia, Nigeria with Ghana and Kenya, and Indonesia with the Philippines.

Bangladesh and Pakistan round out an 11-country sample of markets that share some common characteristics: booming youth populations, significant issues with domestic higher education, and, in some cases, national scholarship schemes to support study abroad.

Why study abroad?

Consistent with other surveys in the field, QS finds that employability is a major driver of demand for postgraduate studies abroad.

Most emerging market respondents indicated more specifically that their primary motivation for study abroad was to progress in their current career path. Bangladesh and Pakistan were the exceptions here: most applicants from those countries said they wanted to pursue postgraduate degrees abroad in order to progress to higher-level academic qualifications (that is, doctoral studies).

Where to study?

Not surprisingly, the US and UK were the two most-preferred destinations among emerging market respondents, with Canada, Australia, and Germany rounding out the top five choices.

Some interesting regional variations were noted, with the US and Canada more prominent in the preferences of students in Nigeria and Ghana, for example, and Germany and Australia more strongly preferred by Bangladeshi and Pakistani students. In contrast, the US and UK were consistently the number one and number two choices (respectively) of emerging market respondents in Latin America.

The main factor behind destination preferences appears to be “international recognition of qualifications,” which QS interprets as the students’ interest in ensuring that their foreign degrees will be valued at home and abroad.

Broadly speaking, African and South Asian students gave even greater weight to the availability of scholarships or other financial aid. And respondents from Latin America, along with their interest in international recognition of qualifications earned abroad, put a high priority on cultural and lifestyle factors.

The importance of subject rankings

When it comes down to choosing an institution, most respondents (47% of master’s applicants, 49% of doctoral applicants) put the highest priority on the institution’s reputation or ranking with respect to their intended field of study.

For master’s applicants, and reflecting the overarching importance of recognition of qualifications earned abroad, this was closely followed by institutional reputation (45%), employment prospects (40%), and funding (34%). Funding was the second-ranked factor for PhD applicants (42%) followed by overall institutional reputation (36%).

QS concludes that framing postgraduate study as a stepping stone to career advancement is likely to have the widest appeal, except for students in Pakistan and Bangladesh who are more strongly inclined to see master’s-level study as a path to a more advanced degree.

The report authors also suggest highlighting both subject-specific and institutional reputation for prospective postgraduate students, with a greater emphasis on subject-specific strengths when recruiting in Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Indonesia, and Turkey.

On the key question of post-study work, the report concludes, “While post-study work opportunities are considered by a significant proportion of applicants in all profiled markets, this appears to have a particularly strong impact on the destination choices of those in the Philippines, Brazil and Turkey, while carrying less weight for those in Bangladesh, Pakistan, or Indonesia.”

For additional background on the motivations and key decision factors for international postgraduate students, please see:

• “Survey says employment prospects the key for postgraduate applicants”
• “When it comes to rankings, students really want to know about employment”

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But Pakistani mobility patterns are set to shift in the next ten years. According again to the British Council, the top destinations for Pakistani postgraduates by the year 2024 will be Australia, Germany, and the UK. Looking at year-over-year growth forecasts in percentage terms reveals that Australia, Canada, Germany, and the US are expected to see the largest gains in Pakistani enrolment over the next decade.

However, this important market remains relatively unfamiliar to many international educators and we recently sat down with Syed Azhar Husnain Abidi for his insights on recruiting in Pakistan. Mr Abidi is the CEO of the Lahore-based agency Falcon Education & Consultancy Services. Aside from its main office in Lahore, Falcon also has offices in four other Pakistani centres – Karachi, Islamabad, Peshawar, and Sialkot – as well as in Bangladesh and Saudi Arabia.

Mr Abidi has more than two decades’ experience in advising Pakistani students on study abroad, and is also the chairman of the Association of Professional Education Consultants of Pakistan (APECOP). In our first interview segment below, he picks up on the theme of shifting demand patterns to describe how student interest is moving away from the UK, the traditional leader, and toward Germany, Canada, and the US.

Security concerns and visa refusal rates are an important characteristic of the Pakistani market. Mr Abidi reports, however, that the situation has largely improved for bona fide students that are well prepared for the visa application process. He notes as well that close collaboration between local agents and universities abroad is a key element of ensuring that students are well advised on all visa and admissions requirements.

In our final interview segment below, Mr Abidi sets out some important strategies for educators that are approaching the market for the first time. He stresses again the importance of building relationships with local partners, including education agents but also local trade offices (e.g., British Council, US Commercial Service) as well as Pakistani institutions.

New providers are also encouraged to consider one of the major education fairs in Pakistan. There are two currently: the Dawn Education Expo in February and , which is held in various Pakistani centres from April through mid-May.

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The students, more than half of whom studied at the graduate and post-graduate levels, were asked 14 questions, many of which focused on how changing economic conditions would affect their plans for study abroad.

Know your markets

The presentation in Denver drew in part on a previous FPP/Intead study, “Know Your Neighborhood: International Recruiting Fuelled by Regional Insights,” that illustrates how different students in various markets are in their attitudes and behaviours related to study abroad.

For example, while it is common for international educators to promote popular programmes such as general business or computer science, this wouldn’t resonate as well in Thailand as it would in other countries. That’s because Thais turn out to be most interested in studying the arts, education, human rights, international business, and medicine.

Students also differ in their hopes upon graduation: for example, Argentinians and Panamanians are more interested in bringing their newly acquired skills back home, while Malaysians, Indians, and Venezuelans are interested in staying abroad after their studies.

As international education markets continue to mature worldwide, knowing these tendencies should influence how you position your institution or school for prospective students. For example, if your country has attractive post-graduation work rights available to international students, that might play very well in Malaysia – but it would be less crucial to mention in Argentina. Intead CEO Benjamin Waxman noted how important it is to consider what makes your school unique in a given market, asking, “What can you say about your school that will make students think it is the best choice for them?”

The issue of affordability and the importance of scholarships

The latest Intead/FPP EDU research shows that in certain markets, large proportions of students are better able to afford studying abroad than they were two years ago. These include Algeria (where 81% indicated they could more easily afford to go abroad today), Vietnam (80%), and Colombia (75%). By contrast, only 40% of Italian respondents and 33% of Venezuelans felt that they could more readily afford to study abroad today compared to 2014.

Across the board, Mr Waxman said, students are attracted to the possibility of scholarships. He noted that especially on social media, students are very likely to click on any mention of scholarships, and concluded: “To the extent that you can use scholarships in your marketing tools, you should.” The research shows that in some markets – Venezuela, Brazil, and Malaysia – students are particularly influenced by a lack of scholarships for a given school or destination.

Unfavourable shifts in currency exchange rates can also have a profound effect on students in some markets. In Brazil, Mexico, Malaysia, and Indonesia, large proportions have postponed plans to study abroad for this reason, while in Venezuela and Argentina, many students said they would abandon plans to go abroad altogether.

Meanwhile, significant numbers of students in Indonesia, Vietnam, Brazil, and Malaysia said they are considering countries other than the US as their currency depreciates against the US dollar. Overall, nearly three in ten survey respondents (27%) indicated that they are planning on studying in a country other than the US “where my funds have more value.”

These currency effects open up an opportunity for schools from other English-speaking destination markets, and last year for example, we saw destinations such as Canada, Malta, South Africa, and Ireland gain traction in Brazil as the real declined sharply relative to other major world currencies.

This is not to say, however, that providers in more expensive destinations don’t have strategic options as well. US schools, for example, could adapt to sharper currency devaluations in some sending markets by offering tuition discounts, rebates, or more flexible payment schedules, or by targeting scholarships or other financial aid to students in those countries.

Tuition discounting, while widespread in some market segments, is often criticised as a short-sighted choice. We do, however, tend to see a spike in discounting activity in response to global economic pressures; in fall 2015, for example, there were reports of some language programme providers aggressively discounting in order to attract students in markets affected by currency devaluations.

Accept that economic crises are normal, and adapt strategies when necessary

The audience listening to the FPP/Intead presentation at NAFSA also heard that economic crises, or other significant market disruptions, are a constant factor in international education, and looked at a slide deck that outlined dozens of economic downturns that have occurred since the 1970s.

The reality, conference attendees were advised, is that “crisis is normal,” and international educators must be prepared for the eventuality that important sending markets will at one point or another will enter difficult times.

Rather than stepping back from troubled markets in those moments, the presenters urged calm and suggested instead that recruiters adopt a more balanced and adaptive approach:

1. Think in a different way: change your approach – the current one probably won’t be as effective as it has been, but another strategy might be;
2. Collect information – don’t rely on external media only, as such media is often overly dramatic, so make sure to get information from trusted local partners and other sources to get a real feeling for what’s going on;
3. Look for opportunities: A markets may shrink during crisis but this doesn’t mean that the right idea is to abandon the market.

Implicit in these suggestions is the idea that when a market is affected by an economic downturn, some institutions will pull back and this can reduce the competition for students – which can in turn open up potential market share gains for those who stay the course. Eventually of course the crisis will pass. And maintaining or expanding a presence in a market when it is going through tough times can be a strategic choice that will pay off over the long term once a recovery is underway and the underlying strengths that drew you to the market in the first place – economic fundamentals, demographics, supply-demand dynamics – begin to assert themselves again.

The FPP/Intead presentation underlined both (1) the profound effect that currency rates can have on international student mobility, and (2) the reality that schools have tools at their disposal to adapt to an economic crisis – and even to use it to deepen branding and long-term enrolments. The key is to understand the effect an economic crisis is having on students, and then to use data – and local sources – to develop strategies to maintain, or increase, market share.

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With approximately one third of Pakistanis yet to reach the age of 30, increased investment in higher education marks a significant step toward a more developed economy and a competitively skilled workforce.

Reflecting Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s ambitions for Pakistan to compete in the global marketplace, the new universities will focus predominantly on science and technology. In a speech to the UN Special Envoy for Global Education, Mr Sharif said:

“Our objective is to develop an educational system that is compatible with the requirements of a knowledge-based economy. Science and technology are engines of growth in modern economies and they must be an integral part of our education system.”

The Prime Minister – who also established Pakistan’s National Science Day – added that the country’s economic future relies upon an educated and motivated young workforce to generate productivity and spearhead innovation. Pakistan has over the past five years already created 35 new universities, with some experts predicting that it could soon compete with China and India in advanced research.

In addition, four of the country’s universities were ranked in the QS University Rankings: Asia 2015, including the publicly funded Pakistan Institute of Engineering and Applied Sciences ().

However, most of Pakistan’s existing universities are concentrated in urban areas – such as Lahore and Karachi – discouraging the participation of the 64% of Pakistanis who live rurally.

Already an economically stratified country, Pakistan suffers extreme rural poverty with some areas positioned amongst the poorest in the world . In extending university access to Pakistan’s rural districts, it is hoped that more broadly based growth will be encouraged through education, culture, and innovation. As part of HEC plans:

• The Federally Administered Tribal Areas are set to gain six universities and sub-campuses where currently there are none;
• There are eight new sub-campuses planned for Balochistan, Pakistan’s poorest province;
• In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, former home to student education activist Malala Yousafzai, there is to be 100% university coverage within the next three years (as opposed to reaching only 72% of the region today).

Access to education today

Currently there are 171 HEC recognised universities in the country and, according to UNESCO figures, only around 6% of Pakistan’s population hold a degree (2009 figures). The gross enrolment ratio in tertiary education for 2013 was 9.8%, and this compares to 24.7% for India and 29.7% for China in that same year.

Even so, the demand for university places greatly outstrips supply and, in Pakistan’s competitive job market, education has become a highly prized commodity.

Resourceful young Pakistanis are increasingly taking advantage of digital learning technologies, including MOOCs, to educate themselves. In fact, , along with neighbouring India.

In a 2013 paper titled , the British Council reports, “Although Pakistan’s education system has many failings, young people today are better educated than their parents. In half of all Pakistani households, the most educated person is now below the age of 30.”

The paper adds that Pakistan must now ensure that it collects its “demographic dividend”, which is to say the country needs to capitalise on a comparatively large workforce relative to the number of dependents. It points out that, “Demography is not destiny. The demographic dividend doesn’t come for free, it needs to be earned.”

Usefully deployed, the youthful population could re-charge the country’s economy, with murmurings that Pakistan might even emerge as the new China.

Women in education

Pakistan’s women stand particularly to gain from the establishment of additional local universities as they are less likely to travel into the cities than men. According to UNESCO’s 2013/14 Education in Pakistan report, females comprised just 42% of all undergraduate enrolments in 2013/14.

The promotion of women’s educational achievement and elimination of gender disparity have been identified as national priority areas. Pakistani women are, on average, poorer in both academic and financial capital than men. And in 2012, the attempt on the life of 15-year-old Malala Yousafzai brought to world prominence the severe barriers to education facing Pakistan’s girls.

The government of Pakistan is now committed to achieving universal primary education by the end of this year, but progress is slow and the country is expected to fall short of all its Millennial Development Goals relating to education.

Preparing the pathways

Critics of the HEC’s plans caution that a rapid expansion of the university system must be met with corresponding efforts to drive up participation and standards at both primary and secondary levels if it is to succeed.

Currently a quarter of children enrolled in Pakistan’s schools fail to complete their primary education, with literacy at a markedly lower level amongst children living in the rural districts.

With violent land disputes and political conflict a fact of rural life, concerns have also been raised about attracting and retaining staff in universities outside of major cities. A recent editorial in Dawn adds, “Perhaps bringing higher education closer to the people can increase enrolment rates, but if the crop of incoming students has received poor quality education and university teachers are under qualified, the system can end up doing more harm than good.”

In recent years Pakistan’s Quality Enhancement Agency has been commended for raising standards in higher education. The establishment of Quality Enhancement Cells, or QECs, has been integral to the improvements, engendering a culture of reflective development throughout the sector.

The QECs are special committees of senior administrators and academics. They function to support universities in implementing quality assurance mechanisms: monitoring progress, identifying teacher training opportunities, and setting up educational partnerships. Many of Pakistan’s universities are also working collaboratively with international institutions in sharing ideas, information, and best practices.

Brighter outlook for Pakistan

Together with increased investment in education and infrastructure, it is hoped that a prolonged period of political stability will now bolster economic outcomes over the longer term. Bloomberg News, for example, reports that Pakistan’s Karachi Stock Index (the KSE-100) is based on performance over the past year. This is partially attributable to increased trade with China and a 27% rise in infrastructure spending.

“Pakistan is a reform story like neighbouring India’s, but better,” says Charles Robertson, Chief Economist at London’s Renaissance Capital. “What’s changed is the delivery of reforms, privatisation, an improved fiscal picture, and good relations with the IMF.”

Investors now watch with interest to see if the country will establish a position as a key emerging market. At a recent lecture to Aga Khan University, investment strategist David Darst said, “I believe Pakistan is in the centre of Asian countries like Iran, Bangladesh, Vietnam, and Indonesia that will significantly contribute in the world economy in coming decades.”

As is the case in countries around the world, expanded access to education will be a key factor in unlocking Pakistan’s considerable potential, and, particularly in that context, the HEC’s plans to expand the higher education across the country are noteworthy indeed.

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