International student mobility has historically been concentrated among the “Big Four” destinations of Australia, Canada, the UK, and the US. Over the past few years, however, there has been a shift towards a wider field of study destinations. That change is being driven both by changing student preferences and by the strategic goals, demographics, and labour market needs of emerging destinations.

New research from INTO University Partnerships shows that prospective students are applying to more programmes than ever before – typically four or five – and to more institutions in more destinations than in previous years. This trend is projected to continue in the long term, and it means that institutions investing in enquiry responsiveness and admissions processing will see more applications converting into enrolments.

Students’ openness to alternatives reflects their changing priorities, including :

• Affordability;
• Fast visa processing;
• Geographic and cultural proximity;
• The expansion of English-taught degree programmes in non-English-speaking countries;
• Opportunities to work during and after studies in the host country.

At the same time, destinations such as Japan and South Korea are working more actively to recruit foreign students in part because of declining domestic populations of college-aged students and the related need to attract talent in key areas of local labour market demand.

“As international students seek to understand what return they can expect on their investments, we see that decisions across every major source market are increasingly based on cost,” says Peter Thompson, vice president of data analytics at INTO University Partnerships. For Jessica Turner, chief executive officer of QS, this creates a competitive point of differentiation for emerging study destinations: “In contrast to students seeking education in the Big Four, students setting their sights elsewhere tend to prioritise affordability over reputation and teaching credentials.”

Economic opportunities are a common draw

Dr Florian Hummel, vice-rector for international affairs at the International University of Applied Sciences (IU) in Germany, says, “The economy is one of the main reasons international students come to Germany. Our strong career prospects and clear post-study work rights are some of the reasons that a growing number of students from the Indian subcontinent are choosing to study at IU.”

A mix of factors drives choice

Cost of living influences many students, but more expensive destinations can still attract significant market segments by virtue of other attributes. Living costs in Japan are relatively high, for example, but Japan welcomed an additional 50,000 international students in 2023 compared to the year before.

More students are also taking sustainability, national sentiment toward international students, and mental health into account when making their decisions. These trends could already be contributing to increases in student mobility to destinations such as Germany, France, and Finland.

Pros and cons

Greater access to a more diverse range of study abroad opportunities is good news for students. But Mr Thompson cautions that higher volumes of applications can also pose a risk to the sector’s reputation globally. For one, administrative functions will be under more pressure. And students may also delay decisions as they hedge their bets across destinations. This means that, more than ever before, speedy and effective response to enquiries and applications will be absolutely key.

The race for foreign talent

Countries outside of the Big Four are seizing the opportunities of a changing international education landscape, with destinations across Asia and Europe growing in popularity. Ms Turner notes, for example, that the number of international students in China doubled over 10 years from 2013 and remains healthy despite declines in the pandemic. Further, with a healthy contingent of those students coming from other Asian countries, China continues to establish itself as an important player in intra-regional recruitment.

Japan, Malaysia, South Korea, and Taiwan are on upward trajectories as well, with Japan aiming to host 400,000 international students within the next decade. South Korea’s Deputy Prime Minister and Education Minister Lee Ju-ho declared last year that, “Now is the time to attract foreign talent strategically.”

In Germany, the government is the primary funder of the Deutscher Akademischer Austauschdienst (DAAD). Recognising the long-term benefits of global collaboration and welcoming the brightest minds, the DAAD is the world’s largest funding organisation for international exchange of students and researchers. In China, the government issues tens of thousands of scholarships for international students each year and is investing in infrastructure through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative.

More English-language programmes outside the Big Four

Edwin van Rest, chief executive officer of Studyportals, says, “The European Union’s decade of growth in this area is winding down. Now we are entering a decade of Asian expansion. South Asia has expanded its ETPs more than twofold since 2019. China, the Middle East and North Africa, and the rest of Asia have doubled their offerings. The Big Four are losing market share, dropping to 78% this year from 82% in 2021.”

That said, the English language is and will remain influential in Europe. Leaders such as Dr Hummel are investing in ETPs as part of their growth strategies. One of Germany’s largest universities, the IU, has approximately 200 programmes. Nearly half of those programmes are now offered in English or German.

Indeed, educators across Europe are buoyant. France and Germany each enrolled more than 400,000 students last year and international strategies in Spain are generating results. The prospects of European institutions beyond the UK are healthy overall: these destinations have become more attractive to international students from all major source countries in the last year. As we see in the table below, education agents report that interest in these European destinations has surged more than 90% among students from South Asia, and the Middle East and Africa.

Agents in China, Hong Kong, and Macau also report that interest in non-UK European institutions has increased nearly a quarter. However, these agents have seen even greater growth in the appeal of institutions in Southeast Asia and the rest of Asia.

Policy drives students to alternatives

Mr van Rest says that many students from sending countries that are the most affected by new policy settings in Big Four destinations are now looking elsewhere: “What they find are more attractive conditions in terms of work rights, affordability, and proximity.” This may partly account for the dramatic surge in interest in New Zealand and Ireland this year: student applications to these countries via QS increased 7.2-fold and 1.7-fold respectively, compared to last year.

Flexible delivery modes disperse demand

The appetite for new modes of higher education delivery models is reflected in expanded transnational education (TNE) activity, including regional hubs, remote delivery, and branch campuses. The UK dominates TNE, accounting for 75% of the market with around 580,000 students enrolled. Australia and the US are also key players, particularly in Asia and the Middle East. As a host country and as an education exporter, China is rapidly expanding its TNE offering and is becoming an increasingly influential player in the field.

Student mobility beyond the Big Four is being defined by strategies to deliver practical outcomes and relevant experiences. As the executive director and chief executive officer of NAFSA: Association of International Educators, Dr Fanta Aw, says, “There is plenty of room in a growing space. We should be thinking about the 20 major countries instead of the Big Four, because students should have choices to get the best education that is right for them.”

For additional background, please see:

• “The view from here: How the ‘Big Four’ study destinations are adapting in a year of change”
• “European study destinations now offering thousands of English-taught degree programmes”
• “Recent policy changes slowing student interest in the UK, Canada, and Australia”

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The proposal, , recommends that Norwegian universities should begin to charge non-EU students NOK130,000 (USD$13,000) in 2023 – though it also stipulates that individual institutions can charge more than that for courses in high demand.

The rationale for the introduction of fees is to attract only the most “motivated” of international students. An anticipated drop-off in overall international enrolments is expected to then free up capacity in the higher education system and in accommodation for Norwegian students. Critics argue that mandatory tuition fees will disadvantage poorer international students from less prosperous world regions, but Norway’s Minister of Research and Higher Education Ola Borten Moe defended the proposal, saying:

“Our universities and university colleges are well fitted to attract international students because the quality is good, not because they are free of charge. I believe that tuition fees will give us more motivated international students. Since we will have fewer international students, this will release both study places and housing for Norwegian students.”

A fall-off in international enrolments is highly likely

Study.eu conducted a survey among just over 1,000 students living outside of Europe who were considering Norway as a study destination. These students were virtually as likely to cite “free tuition” as the quality of Norwegian universities as reasons they were interested in studying in Norway.

As the following chart indicates, more than a quarter of student respondents said they could not afford tuition fees even of 50,000NOK (around USD$5,000). If tuition fees were raised to the level recommended in the Norwegian government proposal (NOK 130,000 or more), over three-quarters of respondents did not believe they could afford to study in Norway unless there were some scholarship arrangements in place.

Gerrit Bruno Blöss, CEO of Study.eu, points out that a decline in international students would affect the overall Norwegian economy:

“In the short term, this might be a fool’s bargain. Fewer students mean less money flowing into local economies. And while there won’t be many students who will actually pay fees, many operating costs will remain fixed even with smaller classes.”

Following in the footsteps of Sweden and Finland

In 2011, Sweden introduced tuition fees for international students, which contributed to declines of up to 80% in foreign enrolments for several years, until 2014. By the 2017/18 academic year, international student numbers rebounded to about the same level they were at in 2011, signalling that the market had reset to a new normal in terms of cost of study in Sweden.

This pattern is also observable in Finland, where international students began paying tuition fees in 2017, leading to a short-term decline in foreign enrolments. In 2022, there are more international students choosing to study in Finland than in 2016, in part because Finnish institutions leveraged scholarship programmes to lower their costs of study.

Earlier this year, Finland’s Ministry of Education and Culture set up a task force . That task force found that Finnish higher education institutions “had collected some EUR 42 million in tuition fees in 2019–2020.” However:

“The higher education institutions use a significant proportion of the potential return from tuition fees for student grants and scholarships. After subtracting the grants and scholarships, higher education institutions received approximately EUR14 million in revenue from tuition fees.”

In Finland, it is typical for international students to pay annual tuition of between EUR6,000 and 8,000 (USD$6,200 to $8,292) for universities of applied sciences and EUR8,000 to EUR12,000 (USD$8,292 to $12,437) for universities.

In Norway, fees for international students range between SEK80,000 (US$7,000) and SEK140,000 per year (US$12,400).

Therefore, Norway’s fees are set to be the most expensive of the three countries.

By contrast, most German higher education institutions remain tuition-free for international students. Its foreign enrolments reached a record high in 2021, and a recent survey shows that free tuition is Germany’s most important competitive strength.

Many students don’t know yet about Norway’s plans

The Study.eu survey found that more than two-thirds of surveyed students did not know that they might have to pay tuition fees if they chose Norway for a programme in 2023. Study.eu’s Mr Bloss points out the potential implications of this:

“International students typically plan their studies one to two years in advance. For Norway, that’s especially true as the country’s application deadlines are the earliest in all of Europe. But universities haven’t had a chance to properly communicate potential fees to their prospective students for the 2023 intake. Two thirds of students we surveyed hadn’t even heard of this plan at all. Introducing fees in a hurry will destroy study-abroad plans for many young people – and is likely to cause lasting reputational damage to Norway’s education sector as well as the country as a whole.”

The survey suggests that if Norway is to introduce tuition fees for international students in Fall 2023, raising awareness of this decision should be done as soon as possible.

For additional background, please see:

• “Germany’s foreign enrolment reaches record high with increase of 8% in 2021/22”
• “Search analysis tracks student interest in English-taught degree programmes in Europe”
• “Stockholm reporting continued growth in international student numbers”

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Road to permanent residency will be easier

International students – and their families – will now receive “continuous” permits valid for the duration of programmes rather than “temporary” permits granted for only two years. This will mean that students will not need to apply for extensions during their studies, and it will also make it easier for them to obtain a permanent residence permit after graduation. This is because permanent residence permits are only granted to foreigners who have held a continuous residence permit for four consecutive years.

To obtain their residence permit, international students must demonstrate that they have adequate financial resources to fund the first year of their studies: €560 per month or €6,720 per year.

The importance of family ties

The decision to include students’ families in the new permit allowance is important; it may have been informed by research showing that students are more likely to choose to immigrate if they have family in Finland. by researchers Charles F Mathies and Hannu Karhunen among more than 13,000 international graduates of Finnish universities found that those students who had family ties in Finland were more likely to choose to migrate there. The researchers noted that “Choosing to migrate is not a choice made in isolation. Often, families (parents, spouses, children) are directly and indirectly a part of the process.”

More work hours during studies

The government also announced that it is extending the number of hours international students can work while studying to 30 per week (up from 25) and extending the duration of the “jobseeker’s permit” for international graduates and researchers from one year to two years. Students can apply for the permit up to five years after graduation, and they can even apply from outside of Finland – a significant detail for those graduates who have left the country in the past few years after running out of time in which to find a job.

Announcing the changes, Minister of Employment Tuula Haatainen said,

“With seamless permit practices, the Government wants to make it easier for international students and researchers to stay in Finland. The new law will enable those who have studied here to look for work and will make Finland a more attractive destination for international experts.”

Finland faces labour force issues that include employers not being able to find qualified workers for open positions. In 2019, more than half (56%) of businesses said that they had been looking to hire employees in the past 12 months and 44% said they had difficulties finding suitable candidates. Smoothing the pathway for international students to enter the workforce is in line with an effort to fill skills gaps in the Finnish economy.

Educators applaud the reforms

Finnish educators have been eagerly awaiting these immigration reforms. While the reforms were in the proposal stage, Esko Koponen, an international education specialist at the University of Helsinki, told Finland-based that,

“[The reforms] will facilitate the permit process and remove uncertainty about continuing studies and living in Finland until graduation. Additionally, [the reforms] would improve opportunities for foreign students to find work in Finland after finishing their degrees, which is the goal of many international students.”

Maija Kuiri, the director for study and international affairs at Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT), told Yle that the “reforms would send a positive signal to prospective students who were still deciding about which country to study in.”

While international students generally provide high ratings for their studies in Finland, finding a job after graduation has long been . In 2017, about half of international students in Finland surveyed for i-graduate’s International Student Barometer said they wanted to remain after graduating but had trouble doing so.

Applications grow despite imposition of tuition fees

There was some speculation that international student numbers would fall in Finland after the government introduced mandatory tuition fees for non-EU students enrolling in English-taught bachelor and master’s programmes in 2017. However, enrolments have fallen only marginally in the years since. Just over 20,000 non-EU students enrolled in Finnish higher education in 2018/19 compared with just over 21,000 in 2016/17, and application volumes rose significantly in 2021 over 2020.
 
Non-EU students’ applications to Finnish universities jumped by 141% in 2021 – from 1,756 to 4,233 – according to the Finnish Immigration Service, and the vast majority (93%) were approved.
 
The bulk of applications came from Russia and China, but universities also reported a significant volume of applications from Nigeria, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and India. In recent years, Finland has been building a more diverse international student body. In 2019, 31,913 students came to the country from both EU and non-EU countries, and the following chart from IIE shows .

Visa processing and approval rates competitive advantages

Finland is processing students’ applications more rapidly than many countries – in the January–August 2021 period, the processing time for a first residence permit (the permit needed for studies in Finland) was 12 days or less. Research has shown that students consider visa processing delays/difficulties to be a major barrier to study abroad, so Finland’s quick processing of permits is likely helping educators there to recruit students who might be considering more than one destination. By way of comparison, the current visa processing average for Canada is and .

That 93% of non-EU students’ first residence permit applications for study in Finland were approved in 2021 is also noteworthy – it’s a very high approval rate relative to Canada and also higher than the rate in the US (85%). European governments in general are approving more non-EU study visas at higher rates than in North America (e.g., 96.5% and 92% for ).

Asian students go to Finland more than to other Nordic destinations

Finland is attracting more students from Asia than many other European destinations. ,

“Among international students in Finland, 39% come from Asia, which is more than in other Nordic countries like Denmark (10%), Iceland (16%), Norway (31%) and Sweden (29%).”

The impressive range of Asian countries represented in Finland’s tertiary student population will be important going forward, as Finland’s ability to recruit in China and Russia may be affected by the Ukraine invasion and by whether Finland decides to apply to NATO as a result of increased Russian aggression.

For additional background, please see:

• “Finland resets on international recruitment”
• “Increasing the “stay rate” of international students”
   

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The country is in the midst of adjusting to a new fee policy for non-EU students. As we reported last year, and after a protracted “will they or won’t they” process, new legislation came into effect on 1 January 2016 that imposed fees for students from outside the EU.

Those new tuition fees are mandatory as of 1 August 2017, but Finnish institutions have also been free to introduce new international fees since last January. The new fees apply to students in “foreign-language programmes” (as opposed to those offered in the domestic languages of Finnish, Swedish and Sámi), and highlight that many students from outside the EU are enrolled in English-medium studies in Finland.

With the example of neighbouring Sweden firmly in mind – a country that introduced foreign student fees in 2011 and saw enrolment promptly fall off by 80% – many in Finland are anticipating a reduction in foreign student numbers for this year. It will be some time before final numbers for 2017/18 are available but the early indicators are that the drop-off could be as much as 30–40%.

In the wake of the new tuition policy, the volume of non-EU applications to Finnish institutions fell off sharply through fall 2016. The Finnish National Agency for Education/Centre for International Mobility (CIMO) reports that the number of foreign applications for 2017/18 commencements was down by nearly 32% compared to the year before.

While the actual effects of the new tuition policy will vary from institution to institution, many recruiters are also anticipating declines in the order of 30-40% for the 2017/18 academic year.

100,000 by 2020

Even as Finnish educators brace for an enrolment setback this year, plans are also underfoot to restore and expand international student numbers. Many institutions are taking steps to sharpen international recruitment strategies and to increase financial aid for foreign students.

And a new private-sector initiative –  – has recently set out a bold vision to build non-EU enrolment in Finland to 100,000 students by 2020.

Edunation is a new venture from Study Advisory, a study search platform with offices in both China and Finland. Its founders anticipate a heavy promotion of Finnish education online, and especially targeted to students in Asia, and clearly intend to be a catalyst for improving policy and processes for foreign students in Finland.

Edunation’s board chair and co-founder Tuomas Kauppinen told Finnish broadcaster Yle recently that, in order to reach that ambitious 100,000-student target, for foreign students will have to become more streamlined.

“The Finnish entrance exam system is unique in the world, and can be an obstacle for many,” says Mr Kauppinen. “The general application period is relatively early in the year, and the decision about whether a student has been granted a study place can take a really long time.”

Fees announced

Another recent report from Yle highlights that tuition fees for non-EU students are already  across the country.

Particularly within universities of applied sciences (or UAS, these institutions can understood to be comparable to polytechnics in other countries), fees currently range from €4,000–€13,000 per semester with the national average settling in around €8,000 per semester. However, many institutions are also introducing tuition rebates for foreign students, in some cases tied to academic performance.

“At Lapland UAS, which has campuses in Kemi, Tornio and Rovaniemi, foreign students may obtain stipends covering as much as 80% of tuition fees,” reports Yle. “In contrast those at Helsinki’s Haaga-Helia will have to make do with grants covering up to one fifth of their fees.”

At the University of Helsinki, meanwhile, non-EU fees range from €10,000–€25,000 per academic year, with other universities announcing fees between €10,000 and €15,000 per year. As with the tuition rebate policies emerging at UAS’s, Finnish institutions are also beginning to introduce scholarship programmes for foreign students. At Helsinki, for example, varying levels of scholarship support are available, including a small number of fully funded awards for study and living costs.

Most come from Asia or Europe

The Finnish National Agency for Education reports that there were 20,353 foreign students enrolled in Finnish higher education in 2015, 76% of which came from outside the EU/European Economic Area. Most students come from non-EU/EEA countries in Europe, or from Asia – slightly more than 40% from each region.

The National Agency for Education explains, “China is the single most common country of origin in universities, Russia in UAS’s. The most common countries of origin in both university sectors have changed over the past ten years or so. With the exception of Russia, European countries have disappeared from the top ten or moved down on the list. Vietnam and Nepal have shot to the top, particularly in the UAS sector. China and Russia have traditionally held top positions in the list of countries of origin. This is still the case in the traditional universities, whereas in UAS’s, China has lost its position at the top, having been overtaken by Russia, Vietnam and Nepal.”

The changing composition of international enrolment in Finnish universities and universities of applied sciences, 2005 and 2015. Source: Finnish National Agency for Education, CIMO

As the following chart reflects, most foreign students in Finland are enrolled in undergraduate programmes in a UAS or in master’s degrees offered by universities. “You can also study for a Bachelor level degree in a traditional university and for a master-level degree in a UAS,” adds CIMO. “However, there are few study programmes available in English at these levels, so they have few foreign students.”

Foreign enrolment in Finnish higher education by level of study, 2015. Source: Finnish National Agency for Education, CIMO

For additional background, please see:

• “Finland introduces university tuition fees for non-EU students”
• “English-taught programmes in Europe up more than 300%”
• “Sweden’s international student numbers up for the first time since 2011”

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“It should be easier for people graduating in the EU to obtain a work permit in the EU,” says the report.

The shape of migration to the EU

While several large Asian markets – among them India, China and the Philippines – drive overall migration to OECD countries, migration to the EU is more diverse, with potential migrants in nearby European and African regions more likely to cite the EU as their desired destination compared to other regions. However, the EU attracts smaller numbers of higher-educated migrants than other OECD destinations.

The EU hosts about 31% of the global pool of higher-eduated migrants distributed across EU and OECD countries, whereas nearly six in ten (57%) are in North America. In fact, the overall pattern is that migrants to the EU tend to be younger and less educated than is the case in non-EU OECD countries. Between 2000 and 2010, the share of all low-educated migrants in OECD countries living in the EU15 rose from 36% to 45%, and in 2014 employment among migrants in the EU15 countries was more than ten percentage points lower than in non-EU OECD countries.

The OECD’s recommendation that the EU reform its work permit policies to retain highly-educated foreign EU graduates therefore represents a plan to reverse this long-term trend. Current migration rules were developed at a time when member-states were in more direct competition. The report’s authors suggest that modern-day factors require a less fragmented approach designed to make the EU more attractive as a whole.

The report notes that variances in policy make for uneven issuance of work permits. As it stands now, Italy, Spain, and the UK issue more than half of all work permits bestowed. Some EU states impose education, occupation, or salary requirements, while others rely upon hard numerical limits. Still others use labour market tests, and some deny entry to less skilled labour migrants entirely while others admit them only for seasonal activities.

This is not to say work permit polices are completely disconnected. The EU developed some common rules with the 1999 Amsterdam Treaty, while the 2009 Lisbon Treaty mandates that certain objectives should be supported and complemented through EU initiatives, and made the European Parliament co-legislator in the area of legal migration. The chart below, from the OECD, gives an idea of the overall alignment of policies in various countries.

Barriers to labour migration in selected EU countries. Source: OECD

The Netherlands, for its part, is out front on the issue of attracting highly skilled migrants. The understanding that the retention of international students bolsters the Dutch economy led to the creation of the Make it in the Netherlands () programme in 2014. Among other areas of focus, MiitN began to promote the learning of Dutch to foreign students, worked toward creating a bridge between study and career, and streamlined bureaucratic procedures.

EU President Jean-Claude Juncker has called for a reset on foreign worker rules as part of a broader agenda of boosting employment rights and setting wage standards, among other goals. Already an EU vote earlier this year harmonised and eased rules for non-EU students, with the goal of attracting not only more students, but also researchers and interns.

The further changes proposed are touted as a way to bring clarity to various grey areas in regulations, and they fall into three broad categories: adapting labour migration channels, simplifying procedures, and promoting the EU labour market.

Proposed Blue Card changes

The EU’s Blue Card programme was designed to attract skilled workers from abroad. However, the programme was not adopted by all member states and has not been widely used.

With an announced on 7 June 2016, the programme is now set for a major restructuring. Less than 14,000 Blue Cards were issued last year, and mostly by Germany. In September 2015, more than three quarters of respondents to a public survey concerning the Blue Card scheme believed more should be done at the EU level to improve the attractiveness of EU member states for highly skilled migrants. The ease of getting a permit was the issue singled out by 63% of respondents. Currently, in order to receive a Blue Card non-EU nationals must earn 1.5 times the average salary of the EU country where they plan to move, and employment contracts must be for at least one year.

Some of the European Commission’s proposed reforms include:

• Faster and more flexible procedures. Applications can be submitted either abroad or in EU territory, and the maximum processing time is brought down from 90 to 60 days.
• Parallel national schemes for similar eligible groups are to be replaced by a single, EU-wide scheme for highly skilled third-country nationals.
• The required minimum duration of initial contracts is brought down from 12 to 6 months to align more with labour market realities and many national schemes.
• The new scheme introduces more facilitation for recent graduates and workers in shortage occupations to increase the retention of foreign talent educated in the EU and facilitate their entry from abroad.
• Member states have the option to introduce fast-track procedures for recognised or trusted employers, with the recognition procedure regulated at the national level.
• Blue Card holders will be able to move to other member states after 12 months of residence in the first member state, compared to 18 months under the existing rules. They would be able to move after six months of residence in second, third, and further member states.
• Professional experience will be recognised as equivalent to possessing higher education credentials.

Certain rules would not change, for example the requirement for Blue Card applicants to prove their highly-skilled status, or to have a job offer or contract in hand before submitting paperwork. Member-states will also still be able to rely upon labour market tests to judge employer needs and create national shortage lists, which would be used to adjust salary thresholds and thus attract the workers each country’s labour markets need most urgently.

According to OECD Director for Employment, Labour, and Social Affairs Stefano Scarpetta, employers in most EU member states already report more difficulty attracting and retaining talent than those in competing non-EU countries. Commenting on the need to draw more highly skilled workers, he said, “Skilled migrants can play an important role in addressing labour market shortages, drive innovation, and promote productivity growth.”

Political obstacles loom

Jean-Claude Juncker is now his EU presidency due to the outcome of Britain’s Brexit vote. It is unclear what effect this would have, if any, on the EU’s recent proposals. Likely none, as support is strong among policymakers for common action in making the EU more attractive for highly qualified migrants. But any reforms will take place in an atmosphere of growing anti-immigrant sentiment among EU citizens.

Strong resistance to EU policy in countries like Denmark, Sweden, the Netherlands, and Slovakia are already roiling the political waters. Switzerland staged a referendum on immigration caps in 2014 that passed and is legally binding upon Swiss policymakers, and Romania has its own immigration vote upcoming in the autumn. Various European politicians have criticised the EU’s proposals in the most forceful terms. Gisela Stuart of the UK’s Labour Party told , “The plan appears to be to open our borders ever wider – extending access to the European labour market to yet more war zones.”

The authors of Recruiting Immigrant Workers: Europe acknowledge that the issue of legal migration is tied to that of forced and illegal migration. For example, one proposed Blue Card reform expands the programme to encompass people who previously arrived in Europe illegally and are seeking asylum. But the report also points out that legal migration, such as by foreign students seeking university degrees, constitutes the bulk of movement to the EU.

The EU estimates Blue Card reforms will net the single market €1.4 billion to €6.2 billion each year (US$1.6–US$7 billion), derived from retaining or attracting 32,000 to 137,000 additional high-skilled workers. Dimitris Avramopoulos, EU Commissioner for Migration, Home Affairs, and Citizenship, said, “If we want to manage migration in the long-term, we have to start making those investments now, in the interest of us all. The revised EU Blue Card scheme will make it easier and more attractive for highly skilled third-country nationals to come and work in the EU and strengthen our economic growth.”

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In the end, the tuition proposals received the unanimous backing of all three parties in the country’s coalition government. The new legislation came into force on 1 January 2016, meaning that Finnish universities are effectively permitted to charge non-EU tuition fees as of now. However, under the new regulations such fees are not mandatory until 1 August 2017, and it remains an open question as to whether any institutions will introduce fees in advance of that date.

Finnish institutions will now have discretion in setting fees “in such a way that the payments support the school’s internationalisation strategy.” However, the government has established a minimum fee of €1,500 per year (US$1,634) for non-EU students.

Some institutions may of course move to introduce fees before August 2017, but leaving that possibility aside for the moment, here are what we understand to be the practical effects of the new legislation.

• Non-EU students beginning undergraduate or master’s studies in Finland after 1 August 2017, can expect to pay tuition fees of at least €1,500 per year. Actual tuition rates will vary by institution.
• Study in Finland has indicated that students who begin their studies before 1 August 2017 will be exempt from fees, but this point may be subject to further clarification (if, for example, any institutions move to introduce fees earlier).
• Fees will not apply to non-EU students enrolled in doctoral programmes.
• Nor will non-EU fees apply to students of degree programmes taught in either Finnish or Swedish.
• Any new fees for non-EU students will have to be accommodated on top of the comparatively high costs of living for foreign students in Finland. Current Eurostat analysis ranks Finland as , on par with the UK but less expensive than its Scandinavian neighbours of Sweden, Norway, and Denmark.

“The goal of the government proposal is to both advance these institutions’ opportunities for education export and also expand their funding base,” adds an official statement from the Finnish Ministry of Education and Culture. “The introduction of tuition fees puts greater emphasis on educational quality as a competitive factor.”

Official government statistics indicate that there were a total of 19,880 foreign students enrolled in degree programmes at Finnish universities and polytechnics in 2014, accounting for just under 7% of all enrolment in Finnish higher education that year. Nearly eight in ten of those students (77% or 15,330 in total) were from outside the EU.

“Foreign students studying in polytechnics are primarily engaged in polytechnic degree programmes taught in a language other than Finnish with a target duration of 3.5 to four years,” says the Ministry of Education and Culture. “Foreign students studying in universities are mostly studying in master’s programmes with a target duration of two years.”

Look away to Sweden

The Finnish government certainly appears to see the introduction of fees as a trigger for further competitiveness and export development in the country’s higher education sector. Education and Culture Minister Sanni Grahn-Laasonen recently told the Finland Times that .

In a further nod to competitiveness, the new regulations also require that Finnish universities establish a scholarship system through which the studies of non-EU students can be partially supported. The Finnish government has also indicated its intention to introduce additional (as yet unspecified) incentives to encourage fee-paying students to remain in Finland.

In both of these respects, the government may again be considering the close-to-hand example of Sweden. Indeed, the Swedish experience – Sweden introduced fees for non-EU students in 2011 and promptly saw its foreign student numbers fall off a cliff – has figured prominently in the debate over non-EU fees within Finland.

However, a combination of strengthened marketing and recruitment activities, expanded scholarship programmes, and increased work rights for foreign students has led to a rebuilding of foreign enrolment in Sweden over the last four years. In fact, the fall 2014 intake saw the first increase in total incoming students to Sweden since the introduction of foreign student fees in 2011.

The austerity budget

Sweden’s recovery reflects in part the willingness of both government and institutions to invest in internationalisation. The prospects for comparable investments in Finland, however, may be dampened by some severe budget cuts planned for the country’s higher education institutions.

Despite fierce opposition from the higher education sector and student groups, the government is proceeding with plans to cut €500 million (US$545 million) in post-secondary funding during its current term (that is, through 2019). This follows earlier cuts of €200 million imposed by the previous government.

In addition, the current administration has also moved to freeze the university index for its entire term, a mechanism that otherwise guarantees year-over-year growth in funding based on inflation. This effectively reduces university funding in relation to inflationary increases in ongoing operating costs through 2019.

The Ministry of Education and Culture has indicated that the introduction of tuition fees for non-EU students will have no effect on the amount of government funding allocated to higher education institutions. Rather, “The earnings accruing from the fees would remain with the schools as additional funding for the development of educational quality and support services.”

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We certainly saw a lot of growth this year, and, as always, a number of important market trends taking shape. The following review features 12 of our most-read posts along with a few other bonus items for good measure.

The big picture

Everybody can use a good high-level market summary and so we put together our “State of international mobility in 2015” feature last month. During the year, we also looked more specifically at language travelĚý˛ą˛Ô»ĺ the continuing growth in the sector in particular. Keep these handy for those moments when you need to stand back and look at the global marketplace from 10,000 feet up.

And while you’re up there, make sure to fold in some of the latest thinking on the most important macro trends with “Global economic power projected to shift to Asia and emerging economies by 2050” and “Four trends that are shaping the future of global student mobility.”

Crossing borders

Immigration is one the most important policy levers in international education and also a reliably hot topic for Monitor readers. We started the year with a look at how Australia is stepping up scrutiny in its student visa system. But by mid-year Australia was also moving to balance strengthened visa controls with streamlined processing.

Canada drew a lot of attention this year as well with the introduction of its Express Entry system, a new process by which foreigners, including international students, would be selected for immigration. The story underscored the importance of post-study work and immigration prospects in determining the attractiveness of a study destination – a point that was more than driven home by the UK’s announcement in July that it would remove work rights for non-EU further education students (among other restrictive measures).

Major senders

China continues to be a major driver of global mobility growth, with 11% year-over-year growth in 2014 alone. But the Chinese market is showing signs of change too, including a shift toward a greater emphasis on undergraduate studies.

Demand in India, meanwhile, continues to surge. Indian outbound kept pace with China in 2014, and, for some receiving markets (notably the US), Indian student numbers have become an increasingly important factor in building international enrolment.

Going through changes

A number of markets initiated big changes in 2015 that drew attention from around the world, including the following:

• In March, Taiwan’s Ministry of Education outlined plans to merge or close up to 52 of the country’s public and private universities;
• In June, the Japanese government asked the country’s universities to take “active steps to abolish [social science and humanities departments] or to convert them to serve areas that better meet society’s needs”;
• The British government announced new English language testing procedures for student visa applicants;
• Finnish universities continued to struggle with austerity budgets this year and the Finnish government continued its on-again-off-again flirtation with the idea of introducing differential fees for students from outside the European Economic Area;
• Malaysia also released a landmark blueprint for education (for additional background, please see our November interview with Education Malaysia);
• In terms of emerging markets, this year we’ve seen notable signs of development in Cuba, Myanmar, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Morocco, and Egypt.

Online lights up

Last year, the big story was mobile. But 2015 felt like a different sort of tipping point in terms of the role of online channels in international recruitment. Driven in part by the widespread adoption of social platforms and mobile devices, we continued to see more research evidence this year as to the importance of digital marketing.

This was certainly the case in this year’s şÚÁĎąŮÍř i-graduate Agent Barometer findings, and another recent study drove home the point again at year-end.

As always, thank you for reading along with us this year. Whether online or education agents or emerging markets or new policies, one thing is clear: we can all count on a lot more change, challenge, and opportunity in international education in 2016!

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Our focus today is on its findings with respect to international mobility. Drawing largely on data through the 2012/13 academic year, Education at a Glance 2015 reaffirms many of the key characteristics of international mobility that we have come to understand over the past decade.

Ongoing rise in international student mobility

The number of foreign tertiary students enrolled worldwide increased by 50% between 2005 and 2012. As many as 4.5 million students were enrolled outside of their home countries in 2012 and the total number is estimated to have surpassed five million by this year.

The report notes, “Student mobility has increased dramatically over the recent past, due to a range of factors. The exploding demand for tertiary education worldwide and the perceived value of studying at prestigious post-secondary institutions abroad contribute to an increasing and diversified flow of international students, ranging from those who cannot find a place to study in post-secondary education at home to students of high academic achievement studying at high-quality programmes and institutions. In addition, the educational value associated with a diverse student body, the substantial revenues that can be earned by expanding education for international students, and economic and political considerations prompted some governments and institutions to make major efforts to attract students from outside their national borders.”

Asia is the engine of growth in global student mobility

It was the region of origin for 53% of all international students in 2012/13, and China and India remain the world’s first and second-largest source markets. “Asia is dominating,” said Andreas Schleicher, Director of the OECD Directorate for Education and Skills.

“That is where you can see the hunger for learning. Parents want their children to get a better education and they still quite often choose countries in the Western world, in OECD countries, to obtain those qualifications.

It may change in the future but at the moment that is still by a large margin the most dominant source of international students, followed by Europe, and with a large gap by Africa.”

Distribution of international students in tertiary education by region of origin, 2013. Source: OECD

Shifting market share

The US remains the leading study destination but, while absolute numbers of foreign students in America continue to increase, its market share has fallen. “That share is declining in the United States,” adds Mr Schleicher. “The market is dividing up quite differently with countries like Japan [and some European countries] getting a larger share.”

More broadly, Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, and the United Kingdom together receive more than 50% of all international students worldwide and OECD countries attract 73% of all students enrolled abroad.

Also of note: the number of international students enrolled in tertiary education in OECD countries was, on average, three times the number of students from OECD countries studying abroad.

Level of study variations for international students

Education at a Glance 2015 has some thought-provoking new observations as well. In particular, it highlights the growing importance of post-graduate programmes and the higher proportions of international student enrolment at advanced levels of study.

“The proportion of international students among total higher education enrolments tends to be much larger at the most advanced levels of tertiary education,” notes the report. “On average across OECD countries, 24% of students enrolled in doctoral or equivalent programmes are international students against an average of 9% in all levels of tertiary education.”

The OECD speculates that the following factors may be contributing to greater proportions of internationally mobile students in advanced studies:

• Particularly severe capacity constraints – that is, very limited opportunities for post-graduate or doctoral studies – in the students’ countries of origin;
• The benefits of study abroad, in terms of career opportunities and earning potential, are that much greater at advanced levels of study;
• Doctoral (or comparable level) students may simply be more likely to travel and live abroad, in part because they would be attractive to their host countries for their research contributions during their studies and/or as highly qualified immigrants.

The following chart makes the point quite vividly that while foreign students may represent a relatively small proportion of total undergraduate enrolment in a major destination like the US, their participation rates are much higher at the master’s and doctoral levels.

International student enrolment as a percentage of total tertiary enrolment in OECD countries, by level of study, 2013. Source: OECD

Hit the brakes?

The report also gives passing attention to a possibility that has begun to play on the minds of international educators in recent years: can the market keep growing as quickly as it has? More to the point, what happens if growth slows significantly?

There are a variety of inter-related demand factors that influence demand patterns for study abroad, including domestic capacity, economics, demographics, labour market requirements, and immigration policies. And on the question of future trends, OECD says only, “In the current economic climate, shrinking support for scholarships and grants, as well as tighter budgets for individuals, may slow the pace of student mobility.”

The report does go on, however, to explore the different elements that drive student decision-making around study abroad and it distills these down to the following decision factors:

• Language of instruction. Languages that are widely spoken and read are attractive and the “progressive adoption of English as a global language” remains a major factor in the prominence of English-speaking destinations. This underlying demand driver has also played an important part in the expansion of English-taught programmes in non-English-speaking destinations, including those in Europe.
• Quality of programmes. Study destination attractiveness correlates strongly to perceptions of quality, as derived from international university rankings but also from a wide range of other indicators of quality for individual institutions and programmes.
• Costs of study. Both tuition and costs of living factor here, and all are filtered through the lens of prevailing currency exchange rates. OECD notes cost as an important consideration but observes as well that higher tuition fees do not necessarily discourage prospective students so long as the quality of education is perceived to be high.
• Immigration policy. There is no question that the destination country’s policies around student immigration are one of the most important determinants of attractiveness for foreign students. This pertains to the ease (and timeliness) with which a student visa can be obtained but also to opportunities for the student to work during or after his or her studies. The prospects for immigration after graduation may also be an important factor for students and host countries alike.

The global classroom

Overall, the OECD’s findings for 2015 reflect a global marketplace for education that continues to expand, but that is also increasingly complex.

“Tertiary education is becoming more international through a number of means,” notes the report. “For example distance education, international education-related internships and training experiences, crossborder delivery of academic programmes, and offshore satellite campuses.”

The global education market is also characterised of late by more varied patterns of mobility. China, for example, remains the world’s leading source of mobile students but is now also an important study destination in its own right. The same is true for Malaysia and a number of other regional destinations around the globe.

Growth rates and other high-level market trends will continue to hold our attention in 2016. But this expanding range of shifting market conditions will also challenge and engage international educators in the years ahead.

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