Roughly half a dozen on the list with the US a likely next addition

The EC recommends letting in travellers from countries with relatively low COVID infection rates and also those “who have received the last recommended dose of an EU-authorised vaccine” at least 14 days before arrival in Europe. The EC proposes that this could also be expanded to people who have received other vaccines on the WHO emergency list.

The Digital Green Certificate – or other certificates approved by the EC – will be the foundation for (selectively) opened borders; non-EU travellers will be able to present this certificate as proof of eligibility to enter. The Digital Green Certificate . Until then, the EC says that certificates from other countries should be enough to allow travellers in “based on national law, taking into account the ability to verify the authenticity, validity and integrity of the certificate and whether it contains all relevant data.”

Because the global COVID pandemic remains fluid – especially given new variants circulating – the EC also proposes a new “emergency brake mechanism” that would allow EU countries to quickly halt all travel from badly affected countries on a temporary basis.

The fluidity of the pandemic means that the list of countries from which travellers will be permitted to enter will be somewhat dynamic and will be updated at least every two weeks. For now, the EC recommends that travel bans be lifted for people from the following countries:

• Australia
• New Zealand
• Rwanda
• Singapore
• South Korea
• Thailand
• China, subject to confirmation of reciprocity

It is anticipated that more European countries will soon allow vaccinated Americans in as well; currently .

Individual countries within the EU speeding ahead

Many European countries have already relaxed – or will imminently relax – international travel restrictions on their own terms in an effort to boost tourism during the crucial summer months. The following list does not include details on what conditions travellers must meet to be able to enter a country – please consult governmental websites for the latest information on those and note that the following information is correct as of 10 May.

• ’s borders are open to arrivals from other European countries as well as Australia, Israel, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea and the UK. Vaccinated Americans will be allowed in on 9 June.
• The UK is allowing arrivals from 12 countries on its “” 17 May.
• is allowing international tourists in, including Americans. Travellers may arrive from the European Union, New Zealand, Australia, South Korea, Thailand, Rwanda, Singapore, the United States, the United Kingdom, Israel, Serbia, and the United Arab Emirates without needing to quarantine.
• will open up soon to travellers who will not need to quarantine provided they show they are COVID-negative or vaccinated.
• Malta is open to travellers from many countries on its “Amber” list and plans to open up more widely in June.
• hopes to open 31 May.
• Iceland, Cyprus, Belgium, Bulgaria, Denmark, and Estonia .

Vaccination rollouts a key to rebooting mobility

The EC’s recommendation, as well as European countries’ individual decisions, underlines that a recovery of global tourism and international education depends on people becoming fully vaccinated. If the leading vaccines prove effective at protecting travellers against variants of concern, there is hope for a better summer for schools and universities across Europe as quarantine requirements are dropped in favour of vaccine passports.

The extent of the recovery will hinge to some degree on the ability of people in non-EU emerging markets to be vaccinated. reveals just how uneven vaccination rollouts have been across the world to date.

Looking at the leading study abroad destinations on the Vaccination Tracker, some currently have a more appealing vaccination profile than others – and surveys show that students are watching this factor closely. Canada (3.3% fully vaccinated) is currently far behind similarly wealthy countries such as the US (34%) and the UK (26%). France and Italy are currently at 12% fully vaccinated while Germany and Ireland are at 10%.

For additional background, please see:

• “Survey confirms that vaccination rollouts are influencing student choice”
• “The link between vaccine rollouts and the attractiveness of study destinations”
• “EU fast-tracks digital green certificate to promote safe travel this summer”

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“It should be easier for people graduating in the EU to obtain a work permit in the EU,” says the report.

The shape of migration to the EU

While several large Asian markets – among them India, China and the Philippines – drive overall migration to OECD countries, migration to the EU is more diverse, with potential migrants in nearby European and African regions more likely to cite the EU as their desired destination compared to other regions. However, the EU attracts smaller numbers of higher-educated migrants than other OECD destinations.

The EU hosts about 31% of the global pool of higher-eduated migrants distributed across EU and OECD countries, whereas nearly six in ten (57%) are in North America. In fact, the overall pattern is that migrants to the EU tend to be younger and less educated than is the case in non-EU OECD countries. Between 2000 and 2010, the share of all low-educated migrants in OECD countries living in the EU15 rose from 36% to 45%, and in 2014 employment among migrants in the EU15 countries was more than ten percentage points lower than in non-EU OECD countries.

The OECD’s recommendation that the EU reform its work permit policies to retain highly-educated foreign EU graduates therefore represents a plan to reverse this long-term trend. Current migration rules were developed at a time when member-states were in more direct competition. The report’s authors suggest that modern-day factors require a less fragmented approach designed to make the EU more attractive as a whole.

The report notes that variances in policy make for uneven issuance of work permits. As it stands now, Italy, Spain, and the UK issue more than half of all work permits bestowed. Some EU states impose education, occupation, or salary requirements, while others rely upon hard numerical limits. Still others use labour market tests, and some deny entry to less skilled labour migrants entirely while others admit them only for seasonal activities.

This is not to say work permit polices are completely disconnected. The EU developed some common rules with the 1999 Amsterdam Treaty, while the 2009 Lisbon Treaty mandates that certain objectives should be supported and complemented through EU initiatives, and made the European Parliament co-legislator in the area of legal migration. The chart below, from the OECD, gives an idea of the overall alignment of policies in various countries.

Barriers to labour migration in selected EU countries. Source: OECD

The Netherlands, for its part, is out front on the issue of attracting highly skilled migrants. The understanding that the retention of international students bolsters the Dutch economy led to the creation of the Make it in the Netherlands () programme in 2014. Among other areas of focus, MiitN began to promote the learning of Dutch to foreign students, worked toward creating a bridge between study and career, and streamlined bureaucratic procedures.

EU President Jean-Claude Juncker has called for a reset on foreign worker rules as part of a broader agenda of boosting employment rights and setting wage standards, among other goals. Already an EU vote earlier this year harmonised and eased rules for non-EU students, with the goal of attracting not only more students, but also researchers and interns.

The further changes proposed are touted as a way to bring clarity to various grey areas in regulations, and they fall into three broad categories: adapting labour migration channels, simplifying procedures, and promoting the EU labour market.

Proposed Blue Card changes

The EU’s Blue Card programme was designed to attract skilled workers from abroad. However, the programme was not adopted by all member states and has not been widely used.

With an announced on 7 June 2016, the programme is now set for a major restructuring. Less than 14,000 Blue Cards were issued last year, and mostly by Germany. In September 2015, more than three quarters of respondents to a public survey concerning the Blue Card scheme believed more should be done at the EU level to improve the attractiveness of EU member states for highly skilled migrants. The ease of getting a permit was the issue singled out by 63% of respondents. Currently, in order to receive a Blue Card non-EU nationals must earn 1.5 times the average salary of the EU country where they plan to move, and employment contracts must be for at least one year.

Some of the European Commission’s proposed reforms include:

• Faster and more flexible procedures. Applications can be submitted either abroad or in EU territory, and the maximum processing time is brought down from 90 to 60 days.
• Parallel national schemes for similar eligible groups are to be replaced by a single, EU-wide scheme for highly skilled third-country nationals.
• The required minimum duration of initial contracts is brought down from 12 to 6 months to align more with labour market realities and many national schemes.
• The new scheme introduces more facilitation for recent graduates and workers in shortage occupations to increase the retention of foreign talent educated in the EU and facilitate their entry from abroad.
• Member states have the option to introduce fast-track procedures for recognised or trusted employers, with the recognition procedure regulated at the national level.
• Blue Card holders will be able to move to other member states after 12 months of residence in the first member state, compared to 18 months under the existing rules. They would be able to move after six months of residence in second, third, and further member states.
• Professional experience will be recognised as equivalent to possessing higher education credentials.

Certain rules would not change, for example the requirement for Blue Card applicants to prove their highly-skilled status, or to have a job offer or contract in hand before submitting paperwork. Member-states will also still be able to rely upon labour market tests to judge employer needs and create national shortage lists, which would be used to adjust salary thresholds and thus attract the workers each country’s labour markets need most urgently.

According to OECD Director for Employment, Labour, and Social Affairs Stefano Scarpetta, employers in most EU member states already report more difficulty attracting and retaining talent than those in competing non-EU countries. Commenting on the need to draw more highly skilled workers, he said, “Skilled migrants can play an important role in addressing labour market shortages, drive innovation, and promote productivity growth.”

Political obstacles loom

Jean-Claude Juncker is now his EU presidency due to the outcome of Britain’s Brexit vote. It is unclear what effect this would have, if any, on the EU’s recent proposals. Likely none, as support is strong among policymakers for common action in making the EU more attractive for highly qualified migrants. But any reforms will take place in an atmosphere of growing anti-immigrant sentiment among EU citizens.

Strong resistance to EU policy in countries like Denmark, Sweden, the Netherlands, and Slovakia are already roiling the political waters. Switzerland staged a referendum on immigration caps in 2014 that passed and is legally binding upon Swiss policymakers, and Romania has its own immigration vote upcoming in the autumn. Various European politicians have criticised the EU’s proposals in the most forceful terms. Gisela Stuart of the UK’s Labour Party told , “The plan appears to be to open our borders ever wider – extending access to the European labour market to yet more war zones.”

The authors of Recruiting Immigrant Workers: Europe acknowledge that the issue of legal migration is tied to that of forced and illegal migration. For example, one proposed Blue Card reform expands the programme to encompass people who previously arrived in Europe illegally and are seeking asylum. But the report also points out that legal migration, such as by foreign students seeking university degrees, constitutes the bulk of movement to the EU.

The EU estimates Blue Card reforms will net the single market €1.4 billion to €6.2 billion each year (US$1.6–US$7 billion), derived from retaining or attracting 32,000 to 137,000 additional high-skilled workers. Dimitris Avramopoulos, EU Commissioner for Migration, Home Affairs, and Citizenship, said, “If we want to manage migration in the long-term, we have to start making those investments now, in the interest of us all. The revised EU Blue Card scheme will make it easier and more attractive for highly skilled third-country nationals to come and work in the EU and strengthen our economic growth.”

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Sparking a fresh round of anxiety, the Chinese stock market crashed in late June and stock values fell off by as much as 30% before the government intervened to try and halt the slide. And in August, the Chinese central bank took the highly unusual step of devaluing the yuan (officially, renminbi or RMB), not once but three times during a month that left many observers wondering if the Chinese economy was in for a hard landing this year.

Needless to say, financial markets do not deal well with fear. Concerns over these ongoing economic challenges have placed a lot of pressure on local currencies and produced some notable shifts in foreign exchange rates in 2015. In particular, many emerging market currencies have weakened over the past year against the US dollar and British pound. This has led in turn to more speculation as to how prevailing currency trends over 2014 and 2015 may influence student mobility going forward.

There is of course a linkage between foreign exchange and demand for study abroad. It arises from the simple fact that if your home currency weakens against the currency of the study destination you have in mind, your study programme effectively becomes more expensive – you need more of your local currency to pay tuition and living costs in dollars or euros or pounds while abroad.

In this sense, foreign exchange rates play a role, sometimes a key part indeed, in shaping demand for study abroad. There is debate, however, about how much of an effect they have, or, more to the point, how much a currency needs to shift before demand for study overseas is significantly affected.

During the Asian financial crisis of 1997, for example, the baht, ringgit, and won (among other currencies in the region) lost as much as half their value against the US dollar. At the time, that sharp drop led to corresponding and immediate declines in student numbers from such markets as Thailand, Malaysia, and South Korea.

The economic pressure in 2015, however, is different. It is broader, affecting a wider variety of emerging markets around the world, and, to this point at least, most currencies have not been affected as drastically as was the case in Asia in the late 1990s.

That said, some have argued that even a modest change can be expected to impact student numbers. “Emerging markets have long been a driver for internationally mobile study around the world,” says Todd Maurer, a founding partner with US-based financial analysis firm Sinica Advisors.

“[I do] not see how the international education market will be immune to dramatic changes in currency values and their impact on affordability across an international student base largely drawn from developing economies,” he adds. “To be sure, student decisions are not only based on affordability but also programmatic quality, academic reputation, geographic proximity, prospects for future immigration and other intangibles. But for many students and their families, a difference as much as 10–15% in cost can hit hard on household budget decisions.”

However, there is another point of view that plans for study abroad – especially in cases where students are intending longer-term studies for secondary school or degree completion – can tolerate a certain level of fluctuation in foreign exchange rates. Such programmes are planned well in advance, with funds set aside over time, and are less sensitive to short-term changes in currency values.

This is not to say that other programmes are not more exposed to currency effects. Short-term language studies, for example, that may be planned within a shorter time frame (and that may be less differentiated from general language studies in other destinations) tend to be more sensitive to shifting foreign exchange rates.

Indeed, there have been reports of aggressive discounting among some language programme providers this fall. This reflects underlying factors such as intensifying competition and increasing commoditisation in language travel, but these discounting practices are also likely intended to offset some of the cost-competitive pressures arising from weakening currencies in sending markets.

Crunching the numbers

It is fair to say there have been some important shifts in world currencies over the last few years. As we noted earlier, the Chinese yuan fell in value earlier this year. The Indian rupee has declined significantly against both the US dollar and British pound over the last three years. And the Russian rouble had a very challenging 2014 to say the least.

Most recently, both the yuan and rupee have stabilised over the last three or four months and the same could be said of the rouble as well.

For the most part, however, the real effects of currency fluctuations are not to be found in such short windows of time. When we take a closer look at a larger sample of key emerging markets, below is the picture that emerges for the last 12 months in relation to a range of leading destination currencies.

Change in value for emerging market currencies against selected foreign currencies, expressed as percentage change from 8 December 2014 to 8 December 2015. Exchange rates retrieved from

We can draw a few broad observations from the currency table above:

• All of the emerging market currencies in our sample are down against the US dollar and British pound.
• With the exception of the Nigerian naira, this decline is fairly substantial with an average decrease for the remaining currencies of 31.75% against the dollar and 26.31% against the pound.
• Within our sample, the Brazilian real has registered the sharpest decline in value over the past 12 months, and again the drop-off is most acute in relation to the US and British currencies.
• With the exception of the real, the declines for most other currencies in the sample hover at or slightly above 10% against the Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, and Euro.

In relation to these, we can also note that the Chinese yuan declined by 3.72% against the US dollar, and was essentially flat against the pound over the same period. The rupee, meanwhile, had a relatively stable year: it fell by 2.45% against the pound and 6.93% relative to the US dollar. Over the same period, the Euro lost about 13% of its value in relation to the American currency.

Thinking again in broad terms, there are some likely implications arising from these one-year trends. First, study in the US and UK has become significantly more expensive – between 20–40% more – for students from a number of important emerging markets. We might expect to see more prominent offers of financial aid by providers in both countries, and, in the case of more commoditised programmes, more aggressive price discounts or the introduction of new, specialised programme offerings.

We can also anticipate a shift in study plans for some students away from those now-more expensive destinations and toward more affordable choices, including Canada, Australia, other European destinations, or elsewhere. This has already begun to play out in the case of Brazil this year where the emphasis is shifting to hosts such as Canada and even more so to still more-affordable destinations such as Malta, South Africa, and Ireland.

This idea is further borne out by analysis from Mr Maurer at Sinica. In the following charts, he maps the behaviour between year-over-year percentage changes in currency values against the US dollar and corresponding percentage-term growth in enrolment from selected markets.

As he notes, “The results show clearly that declining enrolments are correlated with sustained local currency weakness against the US$ over the historical period. In fact, enrolment declines in these examples (apart from China, which until recently has been mainly appreciating against the US dollar) were almost always preceded by local currency declines.”

Annual percentage change in local currency against US dollar, mapped to corresponding market enrolment in the US, for China, India, Turkey, and Vietnam from 2006 to 2014. Source: Sinica Advisors

As Sinica also acknowledges in its analysis, these are only correlations and of course there are always other factors that bear on demand from a given sending market. But even with that caveat in mind, the linkage between enrolment growth (or declines) and relative currency values is hard to overlook.

Given all that, we might expect more students will consider a wider field of options beyond those offered by the world’s leading study destinations – including alternate destinations, local institutions, local transnational education providers, or opportunities to study online – as the prevailing global economic trends, including relative currency values, continue to take shape into 2016.

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Our focus today is on its findings with respect to international mobility. Drawing largely on data through the 2012/13 academic year, Education at a Glance 2015 reaffirms many of the key characteristics of international mobility that we have come to understand over the past decade.

Ongoing rise in international student mobility

The number of foreign tertiary students enrolled worldwide increased by 50% between 2005 and 2012. As many as 4.5 million students were enrolled outside of their home countries in 2012 and the total number is estimated to have surpassed five million by this year.

The report notes, “Student mobility has increased dramatically over the recent past, due to a range of factors. The exploding demand for tertiary education worldwide and the perceived value of studying at prestigious post-secondary institutions abroad contribute to an increasing and diversified flow of international students, ranging from those who cannot find a place to study in post-secondary education at home to students of high academic achievement studying at high-quality programmes and institutions. In addition, the educational value associated with a diverse student body, the substantial revenues that can be earned by expanding education for international students, and economic and political considerations prompted some governments and institutions to make major efforts to attract students from outside their national borders.”

Asia is the engine of growth in global student mobility

It was the region of origin for 53% of all international students in 2012/13, and China and India remain the world’s first and second-largest source markets. “Asia is dominating,” said Andreas Schleicher, Director of the OECD Directorate for Education and Skills.

“That is where you can see the hunger for learning. Parents want their children to get a better education and they still quite often choose countries in the Western world, in OECD countries, to obtain those qualifications.

It may change in the future but at the moment that is still by a large margin the most dominant source of international students, followed by Europe, and with a large gap by Africa.”

Distribution of international students in tertiary education by region of origin, 2013. Source: OECD

Shifting market share

The US remains the leading study destination but, while absolute numbers of foreign students in America continue to increase, its market share has fallen. “That share is declining in the United States,” adds Mr Schleicher. “The market is dividing up quite differently with countries like Japan [and some European countries] getting a larger share.”

More broadly, Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, and the United Kingdom together receive more than 50% of all international students worldwide and OECD countries attract 73% of all students enrolled abroad.

Also of note: the number of international students enrolled in tertiary education in OECD countries was, on average, three times the number of students from OECD countries studying abroad.

Level of study variations for international students

Education at a Glance 2015 has some thought-provoking new observations as well. In particular, it highlights the growing importance of post-graduate programmes and the higher proportions of international student enrolment at advanced levels of study.

“The proportion of international students among total higher education enrolments tends to be much larger at the most advanced levels of tertiary education,” notes the report. “On average across OECD countries, 24% of students enrolled in doctoral or equivalent programmes are international students against an average of 9% in all levels of tertiary education.”

The OECD speculates that the following factors may be contributing to greater proportions of internationally mobile students in advanced studies:

• Particularly severe capacity constraints – that is, very limited opportunities for post-graduate or doctoral studies – in the students’ countries of origin;
• The benefits of study abroad, in terms of career opportunities and earning potential, are that much greater at advanced levels of study;
• Doctoral (or comparable level) students may simply be more likely to travel and live abroad, in part because they would be attractive to their host countries for their research contributions during their studies and/or as highly qualified immigrants.

The following chart makes the point quite vividly that while foreign students may represent a relatively small proportion of total undergraduate enrolment in a major destination like the US, their participation rates are much higher at the master’s and doctoral levels.

International student enrolment as a percentage of total tertiary enrolment in OECD countries, by level of study, 2013. Source: OECD

Hit the brakes?

The report also gives passing attention to a possibility that has begun to play on the minds of international educators in recent years: can the market keep growing as quickly as it has? More to the point, what happens if growth slows significantly?

There are a variety of inter-related demand factors that influence demand patterns for study abroad, including domestic capacity, economics, demographics, labour market requirements, and immigration policies. And on the question of future trends, OECD says only, “In the current economic climate, shrinking support for scholarships and grants, as well as tighter budgets for individuals, may slow the pace of student mobility.”

The report does go on, however, to explore the different elements that drive student decision-making around study abroad and it distills these down to the following decision factors:

• Language of instruction. Languages that are widely spoken and read are attractive and the “progressive adoption of English as a global language” remains a major factor in the prominence of English-speaking destinations. This underlying demand driver has also played an important part in the expansion of English-taught programmes in non-English-speaking destinations, including those in Europe.
• Quality of programmes. Study destination attractiveness correlates strongly to perceptions of quality, as derived from international university rankings but also from a wide range of other indicators of quality for individual institutions and programmes.
• Costs of study. Both tuition and costs of living factor here, and all are filtered through the lens of prevailing currency exchange rates. OECD notes cost as an important consideration but observes as well that higher tuition fees do not necessarily discourage prospective students so long as the quality of education is perceived to be high.
• Immigration policy. There is no question that the destination country’s policies around student immigration are one of the most important determinants of attractiveness for foreign students. This pertains to the ease (and timeliness) with which a student visa can be obtained but also to opportunities for the student to work during or after his or her studies. The prospects for immigration after graduation may also be an important factor for students and host countries alike.

The global classroom

Overall, the OECD’s findings for 2015 reflect a global marketplace for education that continues to expand, but that is also increasingly complex.

“Tertiary education is becoming more international through a number of means,” notes the report. “For example distance education, international education-related internships and training experiences, crossborder delivery of academic programmes, and offshore satellite campuses.”

The global education market is also characterised of late by more varied patterns of mobility. China, for example, remains the world’s leading source of mobile students but is now also an important study destination in its own right. The same is true for Malaysia and a number of other regional destinations around the globe.

Growth rates and other high-level market trends will continue to hold our attention in 2016. But this expanding range of shifting market conditions will also challenge and engage international educators in the years ahead.

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These are some of the key findings of a recent report from the European University Association (EUA). Trends 2015: Learning and Teaching in European Universities is the latest in a series of survey reports from the EUA, and the first since 2010.

It gathers responses from 451 institutions representing 46 countries and with a combined student body of roughly 10 million. This, notes the report, represents “more than half of the 17 million students studying at EUA member institutions, or about a quarter of the student body enrolled in the institutions of the European Higher Education Area. However, this percentage rises to 38% of the student population if Azerbaijan, Belarus, Ukraine and the Russian Federation are excluded from the sample due to their low response rates (the institutions that responded represented about 10% of the students in each of these countries).”

Student numbers on the up

Trends 2015 highlights the European Union’s commitment to educate at least 40% of 30-34 year-olds at degree level by 2020 – alongside an earlier research finding that 12 EU members had reached that level of higher education participation as of 2012 (relative to an EU average of 36% by that year). “Many countries in Europe,” the report adds, “have been interested in broadening participation and access to higher education.”

Perhaps it is therefore not surprising that 62% of survey respondents reported an increase in enrolment over the past five years with 42% reporting growth of more than 10% since 2010. In contrast, only 19% reported a decrease in student numbers with 9% indicating a decline of 10% or more.

“The largest enrolment gains are found in Belgium, Denmark, Norway, Switzerland and Turkey; smaller but still significant growth is expected in Austria, France, Germany, the Russian Federation and Ukraine,” adds the report. “The largest decreases are found in the Czech Republic, Lithuania, and Slovakia.”

This summary reflects a broader pattern of migration fueled in part by the prolonged economic crisis in Europe. The percentage of Europeans residing in another member state has been steadily increasing since 2010, resulting in two particularly notable flows of migrants from the south to the north, and, to an even greater extent, from the east to the west.

This reflects that economies in southern and eastern Europe have been more profoundly affected by the downturn, and this is indicated in the survey responses as well in that institutions in both regions reported greater impacts of economics and demographics on their current and future enrolment prospects.

“The weak economic outlook has been accompanied by an increase in youth unemployment in many parts of Europe,” adds Trends 2015. “It peaked at 50% in Spain and 60% in Greece in 2014 and was estimated to have reached five million across the European Union in August 2014.

This has prompted many governments, the European Commission and the Organisation for Economic Co‑operation and Development (OECD) to emphasise the need for closer links between universities and industry, to stress innovation policies and graduate employability.”

It has also, it would appear, contributed to an increasing demand for professional qualifications among European students. Nearly four in ten survey respondents (38%) reported increased demand over the last five years for studies leading to a professional degree in fields such as business, engineering, or law.

Internationalising the student body

Nearly all respondents indicated they have an internationalisation strategy in place: 50% have a specialised international strategy already, 8% intend to develop one, and 35% have incorporated internationalisation as an element of a broader institutional strategy.

Not surprisingly, most European universities cite the EU as the primary geographic target of their international activities, including exchange programmes, international recruitment, joint programmes, and other cross-border links. After the EU, Asia and the Americas are the next most-reported geographic targets.

The following chart provides a little more nuance for the earlier finding of increased enrolment for a majority of responding institutions. It highlights that 69% of European universities reported an increase in non-EU enrolment since 2010. Riding along with this, 64% also indicated an increase in enrolment by EU students. “The growth of international students, both EU and non-EU, is the most frequent change that has occurred,” adds the report, “notably in Austria, Ireland, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Switzerland and Turkey.”

The changing composition of the student body of European universities, 2010 to 2015. Source: European University Association

When asked what they felt most contributed to any increase in enrolment since 2010, respondents cited “stronger emphasis on widening access and participation” (41%), “international recruitment” (39%), and “changes in admissions policies” (28%) as the top factors.

Main reasons for increased enrolment since 2010. Source: European University Association

The report highlights a related research finding that expanded international recruitment has become an increasingly common response to the economic crisis for European universities, both as a means to increase revenue and diversify funding sources.

Trends 2015 acknowledges that expanded international recruitment may be linked to the possibility of recovering higher fees from non-EU students but notes as well that recruitment activity is on the rise even in countries without such fee differentials.

“The new economic reality – the economic crisis, youth unemployment, the requirements of the knowledge society, globalisation – has led to renewed and additional emphasis on increasing student participation,” concludes the report.

“The composition of the student body is changing as a result of institutional strategies, particularly due to the major efforts being undertaken to recruit international students from both EU and non-EU countries…Where drops in enrolments occur, they are attributed to demographic change and the students’ financial situation, especially in eastern and southern Europe.”

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A recent study written by Bernd Wächter and Friedhelm Maiworm published by the Academic Cooperation Association (ACA) collected survey data from European education institutions to examine their use of programmes taught in English as a tool to increase mobility.

Data collected by ACA in collaboration with the Gesellschaft für Empirische Studien () and shows that the number of English-taught bachelor and master programmes – referred to in the study as English-Taught Programmes (ETPs) in non-English-speaking European countries has more than tripled over the last seven years.

A massive surge in ETPs

Comparing data from earlier studies shows how widespread the adoption of ETPs has become. The number of English-taught programmes was counted as 725 in 2001, 2,389 in 2007, and according to the present study, 8,089 in 2014. The new data, as well as that from other sources – such as that included in a 2013 şÚÁĎąŮÍř Monitor article – attests to the accelerated introduction and delivery of ETPs across Europe.

Currently, Germany has the largest number of institutions offering such programmes, at 154, followed by France with 113, and Poland at 59.

In absolute terms, the Netherlands has the most ETPs with 1,078, followed by Germany with 1,030, and Sweden with 822.

The chart below shows the top ten countries for ETPs numerically, and the proportion within the total number of programmes available.

Top ten countries by number of ETPs as of 2014, and the proportion of the total higher education programmes offered (by country) that each represents. Source: ACA

Because the number of higher education institutions per country differs, the percentages offer more revealing data. Denmark, Netherlands, Finland, and Sweden offer the highest percentage of courses in English, whereas by proportion, France ranks below sixteen other European nations in offering ETPs and Germany ranks below fourteen other countries.

In general, eastern and southern European countries offer the fewest ETPs by both number and percentage, with Greece, Croatia, and Bulgaria offering the least in sheer numbers, and those three countries along with Romania, Italy, and Turkey offering the least by percentage.

The chart above hints that ETPs are strong in the Nordic region, and the ACA’s data bears that out. Almost 61% of institutions in the Nordic countries offer bachelor and/or master programmes completely taught in English – nearly 20% of all programmes there fall into that category – and more than 5% of all students are enrolled in ETPs. The chart below divides Europe into six areas to provide a snapshot of how such courses are distributed regionally.

Regional distribution of ETPs in Europe, 2014. Source: ACA

As the chart suggests, despite remarkable growth in the number of ETPs during the last decade, the percentage of students enrolled in such courses remains small. For Europe as a whole it stands at 1.3%, which amounts to about 290,000 participants across the continent for 2013/14.

A look inside the classroom

ACA tracked the student mix in these courses, and found that 54% of the total were foreign students in the nations in which they are studying. In the 2007 survey that percentage was much higher, at 65%, and in the 2002 survey the percentage was 60%. The reasons behind this 11% drop in foreign enrolment over the seven years is not entirely clear, but could be a reflection of economic factors in Europe.

However, there is still international diversity in the programmes. As few as 5% of the ETPs surveyed reported only domestic students enrolled. At the opposite end, 10% of ETPs stated that all the students were from outside their own country.

Comparatively speaking, ETPs in the Baltics and in Southeast Europe tend to enrol domestic students, while those in the Nordic region and Central West Europe enrol more foreign students.

In terms of classroom make-up, the survey found that students from Europe formed by far the largest cohort in European ETPs. Below is a breakdown of students’ regional origins:

ETP enrolment in Europe by the students’ region of origin. Source: ACA

The 14% Asian grouping is composed of 4% from China, 4% from India, and 6% from the many other countries in the region.

The survey also tracked English language proficiency, and a large majority of ETP directors rated their students as good or very good in this area. Domestic students fared better in these assessments than foreign students, and students in social sciences, business, and law fared better than those in engineering, manufacturing, construction, and hard sciences. On the negative side, heterogeneity – that is, variation in command of English – was viewed as a problem in classrooms.

Problems encountered with English language proficiency of students in ETP programmes (values shown are percentage for each category of respondent). Source: ACA

Some coordinators also reported other problems related to heterogeneity such as the differing expectations of students with regard to teaching methods. For example, expectation for more passive versus more interactive approaches, differing levels of subject area knowledge, and differing student academic practices and ethics.

Respondent expectations and motivations

While English language instruction is known to enable greater student mobility, survey respondents were asked to dig deeper and give specific reasons why they had adopted ETPs as a means of boosting internationalisation at their institutions. Essentially, these questions probed expectations, and charted reported effects. Some of the responses were as follows:

1. To do away with language obstacles for foreign students – i.e., to attract those who won’t enrol in a programme taught in the country’s domestic language;
2. To improve international competency of domestic students – i.e., to increase diversity at the institution, foster intercultural understanding, and better prepare students to be globally competitive;
3. To raise the international profile of the institution;
4. To attract top talent at both the student and staff level;
5. To provide high-level education for students from low-income countries as a means of development aid;
6. To compensate for shortages at the institution – i.e., to counterbalance a lack of enrolment by domestic students and/or to generate revenue from tuition paid by foreign students.

The survey notes that in general, revenue as a motive was cited least often, whereas altruistic considerations – for example in the area of development cooperation – played a surprisingly strong role.

The ACA survey also asked institutions their reasons for not adopting ETPs. Typical responses were:

1. Language proficiency issues – low levels of English among teaching staff and/or among domestic students; or, on the other hand, high proficiency of foreign students in the domestic language.
2. Type of higher education institution and/or discipline – English was deemed unnecessary, difficult to introduce, or incompatible with the discipline taught, for example music or the arts. Conversely, some institutions offer programmes with specialised terminology students needed to master in the domestic language, as is the case in teacher training or law.
3. Insufficient international enrolment and/or lack of interest among foreign students.
4. Contractual considerations – some institutions have established bilateral agreements with foreign institutions stipulating that incoming students master the domestic language.
5. Legal obstacles, for example arising from regional autonomy agreements, such as in Spain, which create difficulties designing study programmes; accreditation issues also exist in some countries, such as the Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia.
6. Lack of resources.

Resources often relate to the size of an institution. Larger institutions have the ability to offer more programmes of all kinds than smaller ones, and are statistically more likely to offer programmes taught in English.

The survey showed that in 2013/14, only 14% of institutions with 500 students or fewer offered ETPs, while 52% of institutions with 2,501 to 5,000 students offered them, and 81% of institutions with more than 10,000 students administered such programmes.

Programme effects

The ACA tracked the effects of ETPs upon schools. The most frequently cited effects were as follows:

1. Improved international awareness of the institution (84%);
2. The strengthening of partnerships with foreign institutions (81%);
3. The improvement of assistance/guidance/advice for foreign students (71%), including the provision of information and services in English.

When asked in detail about the benefits to students, programme directors cited career benefits. Improved mastery of English in itself, apart from degrees earned, was believed to be a strong aid to future employment prospects. Respondents also cited as positives such as better networking opportunities thanks to a multinational student body, good preparation for international employment, and more mobility opportunities.

Interestingly, many programme directors also believed that one strong benefit of ETPs was the closer interaction with teachers made possible by the generally smaller class sizes. Under such conditions, they believed students received more personalised guidance, which in turn enhanced the overall quality of their education.

As a result of adopting ETPs, 56% of respondents attributed higher importance to promoting their schools, and to targeted recruitment of students in particular (54%). Institutions used a broad range of marketing measures and communication channels to reach students. The survey asked respondents to break their methods into two categories – those used by degree (i.e., methods used to attract bachelor students, as opposed to masters students), and those used according to target group (i.e., foreign as opposed to domestic students).

Providing information via university websites was the most commonly used method in both cases, followed by distribution of printed material, presentations at domestic student fairs/information events, entries in international portals/databases, distribution of information via existing networks/partnerships of the institution, and presentations at foreign student fairs/information events. In both categories, the use of agents in target countries was among the least-used methods.

The final study published by the ACA is a detailed document running more than 130 pages. It contains important details concerning collection methodology, before offering a large assortment of respondent data, along with the interpretations and conclusions of the authors.

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In this article, we will examine the current economy’s impacts on the education sector and on the aspirations of students, with particular focus on what they may signal for outbound mobility.

The Greek economy: unemployment and educational cutbacks

There are many components of the Greek economic crisis, but most relevant to our discussion here are unemployment rates and government policy affecting the higher education sector as it tries to regain economic momentum.

The unemployment rate in Greece currently stands at just while the youth unemployment rate is hovering (51.5% in June 2014). Both rates are among the highest in Europe.

Moreover, the country hosts a worryingly high number of NEET (Neither in Employment nor Education or Training) youth. In 2011, the most recent year for which the OECD has data, 22% of 15-29 year-olds in Greece were NEET compared to 16% in OECD countries as a whole. Among 25-29-year-olds, the population of Greek NEETs was 30% compared to a 20% OECD average and lower only than Turkey’s 40%.

For Greek students, statistics like these are alarm bells, as they obviously suggest a very tough job market to enter after graduation. German broadcasting outlet Deutsche Welle (DW) recounts , a 27-year-old who left Greece after completing a bachelor’s degree to study at the master’s level in Germany. She told DW that her goal was to “get a PhD position in Berlin, to work a few years in Germany and then go back again,” but admitted that she was unsure whether the Greek job market would strengthen sufficiently.

Unemployment is not the only thing making Greek students nervous: there is also the government’s response to the economic crisis as it pertains to the education sector: huge cutbacks.

For example, according to DW:

“In 2011, the annual Ministry of Education budget for the University of Crete was 17.5 million euros ($22.1 million). In 2012, the budget was cut by 75% and in the following years by a further 15%. Next year there will be yet another cut of 23%.”

Commenting on the cutbacks, Skevos Papaioannou, the former dean of the university, said:

“In real terms that means 3.1 million euros remain. The overheads for the university alone, for electricity and heating and other things, are estimated at 6 million euros.”

Teachers in Greece are feeling the pinch. The OECD reports that gross salaries for teachers fell by 17% in Greece compared to 2% on average among the whole OECD group.

The situation was judged to be so dire last year that eight major Greek . The government had cut their staff allocations by nearly 50% (1,349 personnel). Professor Theodosis Pelegrinis, the rector of the University of Athens, wrote an open letter to Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras to explain the closure of his university:

“The National and Kapodistrian University of Athens is going through its greatest and most dangerous crisis since its foundation, due to its inability to operate in future as a teaching and research centre; offer high quality studies; complete research programmes; and [being] forced to curtail the provision of medical services and training to students in a number of university clinics.”

Declines in the number of Greek students abroad

The number of Greek students studying abroad has been , though there are differing accounts of outbound numbers of late. The OECD study Education at a Glance estimates that 22,000 Greek students were studying abroad in 2012 versus 33,500 in 2011 and 34,200 the year before that. A UNESCO count, however, puts the number of Greek students abroad in 2012 at 32,360. Whatever the exact number, two things can be said of the trend:

• It has been less affordable for many Greek students to study abroad as their economy has struggled through the worst of the economic crisis.
• There are still significant numbers of Greek students choosing to study in other countries. Greek students abroad make up close to 6% of the total Greek student population. Their preferred destinations according to UNESCO are: the UK (11,759), Italy (3,318), Germany (2,749), Cyprus (2,316), France (1,999), the US (1,862), The Netherlands (1,475), Turkey (1,322), and Slovakia (1,087).

Increasing pressure to leave the country

While overall numbers of Greek students abroad may be down, there are signs that for the most ambitious Greek students – as well as established professionals – the future lies outside of Greece, at least in the near term.

Germany, for one, has noticed an uptick in student enrolments from Greece. Between 2012 and 2013, there was a 13% increase in the number of Greek students studying in Germany.

, according to a Businessweek article. The article interviewed two professors, one a PhD programme director and the other an adjunct professor, who felt they had to leave Greece for different reasons. The PhD programme director, Yanis Varoufakis, left when his opinions about the economic crisis resulted in abusive phone calls and when funding cuts stopped his ability to invite guests to lecture in his programme. The adjunct professor, Tassos Patokos, was dismissed in 2011 along with almost all other adjunct professors teaching in Greece.

Doctors, too, are finding greener pastures in other countries. The Medical Association of Athens (ISA) has just reported that Nearly two-thirds of these are professionals who have completed their education. The ISA explains:

“Doctors in Greece nowadays face actually two options: unemployment or migration. In the past, Greek doctors would go abroad to further educate themselves. Now they only do this to earn a living.”

The increasing sense that the Greek economy cannot provide enough attractive jobs, career paths, and money is echoed in a . The study investigated emigration patterns and motivators among several European nationalities, and included 1,000 responses from Greek participants.

The EUI study found that 50% of Greeks who emigrated already had a job. Many of these had studied abroad, returned to Greece, then found “their expectations dashed” with few prospects for career evolution in Greece, forcing them to leave.

No immediate relief on the horizon

Those Greek students who can afford to study abroad or who are eligible for scholarships at foreign universities seem to have no end of reasons to consider leaving the country. Greek elections this year have seen Konstantinos Arvanitopoulos replaced by Andreas Loverdos as education minister, and University World News like this:

“Arvanitopoulos set out to destroy free state education, with cuts in state finance, closures and mergers of hundreds of schools, and suspension of thousands of teachers and administration staff …. There is concern that [Loverdos] has been called on to dismantle what little Arvanitopoulos left intact in higher education.”

This, coupled with an unemployment rate that was “double the euro average rate of 11.5%” as of this past July, will likely ensure that the economic situation in Greece continues to factor as both a drag and a driver of outbound mobility from the country for some time to come.

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The broadest finding is that it is becoming more typical for the world’s students to attain at least secondary education and more common for them to pursue tertiary education as well. Younger adults are more likely to achieve higher levels of education than their older counterparts, especially in emerging markets. We will look at this trend briefly in the next section of this article.

But our main focus will be international student mobility trends. The publication documents enormous growth in the numbers of students studying abroad from 1975 to 2012 – particularly in the time span 2000–2012. Moreover, it reveals new trends in mobility, including the growing importance of intra-regional mobility and new or emerging destinations for international students.

Pursuing higher levels of education becoming the norm

Education at a Glance 2014 shows that roughly 8 in 10 younger adults (aged 25–34) in the survey countries have completed upper secondary education, (i.e., education that allows them access to tertiary education and expanded labour market opportunities).

As for tertiary education, attainment levels are relatively lower (roughly 3 in 10 adults have achieved a tertiary-level education) but they have risen by 10% across the OECD countries since 2000. Younger adults are generally more likely to have a tertiary education (40%) than older adults (25%), and in some countries, generational gaps are particularly striking. In South Korea, the gap is 52 percentage points between adults aged 25–34 who have completed tertiary education as compared to those aged 55–64. Wide gaps like these attest to the dramatic expansion of higher education capacity in recent years – and appetite for tertiary education – in many countries.

The report estimates that 58% of young adults in OECD countries will enter university-level programmes in their lifetimes, and that 18% will enter vocational programmes.

International mobility trends

In 2012, more than 4.5 million students were studying abroad at the post-secondary level – more than five times the number of students abroad in 1975. The average annual growth rate in international student mobility between 2000 and 2012 was 7%.

The number of students enrolled outside their country of citizenship, by region of destination, 2000-2012. Source: OECD

Some high-level trend highlights:

• The countries with the highest proportions of international students in their overall enrolments (more than 10%) are Australia, Austria, Luxembourg, New Zealand, Switzerland, and the UK.
• Asia is the source for more than half of today’s internationally mobile students (53%), with China, India, and South Korea the main source countries.
• G20 countries host 82% of all foreign students, and 75% study in OECD countries.
• Collectively, the US, Canada, the UK, France, Germany, and Australia host more than half of the students studying abroad today.
• Europe is the top regional destination, claiming 48% of internationally mobile students. North America follows with 21%, and then Asia with 18%.
• New destinations are commanding a higher and higher share of international students, while some traditional leaders are losing share (e.g., the share for the US dropped from 23% in 2000 to 16% in 2012). The Oceania region as well as Latin America, Africa, and the Caribbean are cited by the report as emerging destination regions.

Percentage of all foreign tertiary students enrolled, by destination, 2000 and 2012. Source: OECD

•  OECD countries receive far more international students than they send out. The report notes, “In 2012, the number of foreign students enrolled in tertiary education in OECD countries was, on average, three times the number of students from OECD countries studying abroad.”
• The language of students is a major influencer in where they choose to study abroad, and the current global dominance of English as a language of business/communication is thus a significant factor in the share of international student mobility held by English-speaking destination countries. “The prevalence of predominantly English-speaking destinations, such as Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States, in part reflects the progressive adoption of English as a global language. It may also reflect the fact that students intending to study abroad are likely to have learned English in their home country or wish to improve their English-language skills through immersion in a native English-speaking context.”
• Other important drivers of mobility cited in the report include: tuition fees (and intra-regional policies on this, for example, EU countries providing tuition fees as low as those charged to domestic students for international students from other EU countries); quality of programmes (with more and more attention being paid to international rankings of institutions); and immigration policies.

The importance of regions

Education at a Glance 2014 notes a continuing trend towards intra-regional mobility around the world:

“Global student mobility follows inter-and intra-regional migration patterns to a great extent. The growth in the internationalisation of tertiary enrolment in OECD countries, as well as the high proportion of intra-regional student mobility show the growing importance of regional mobility over global mobility. Student flows in European countries and in Eastern Asia and Oceania tend to reflect the evolution of geopolitical areas, such as closer ties between Asia-Pacific countries and further co-operation among European countries beyond the European Union.”

Distribution of foreign students in tertiary education, by region of origin, 2012. Source: OECD

The OECD also highlights the following as the main reasons students will travel beyond their home regions for study abroad:

1. The destination country is a leading and/or traditional location for study abroad (e.g., the US and UK). Their established reputations and international education infrastructures are well known and they have significant numbers of institutions on international rankings lists such as the QS.
2. The destination country has historic, cultural, or language ties with other countries, making it attractive to prospective international students interested in these (e.g., Spain and Portugal).

But, the report says, a destination country’s proximity to source countries – and associated marketing and policies (e.g., tuition, immigration) – is increasingly a factor in international students’ decisions as to where to study abroad. So:

“A large proportion of foreign students in OECD countries come from neighbouring countries. In all OECD countries in 2012, an average of 21% of all foreign students came from countries that share land or maritime borders with the host country. Higher levels of mobility from neighbouring countries are not only the result of being in a particular geographic situation, as in the Czech Republic, but may also reveal cost, quality and enrolment advantages that are more apparent to students in neighbouring countries.”

Europe is a prime example of the importance of region in international student mobility trends. As we reported earlier this year:

“Europeans account for nearly a quarter of all internationally mobile students and mobility in Europe, and the number of international students in Europe increased by 114% from 2000 to 2010.”

Not coincidentally, Europe has been proactive in its policies to leverage regional mobility flows, for example the EU’s 2013 approval of a major expansion of the Erasmus progamme (now Erasmus+).

For further examples of emerging patterns of intra-regional mobility, see also our recent reports on Europe, sub-Saharan Africa, and Southeast Asia.

With the emergence of regional education hubs such as China and Malaysia, coupled with continuing growth in demand for tertiary education across Asian markets, we can no doubt expect the global share of international students hosted within this key region to continue to grow over the years ahead.

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