On a survey-wide basis, however, there are some important global findings regarding perceptions of the US as well as potential barriers to study abroad:

• Two-thirds of prospective students surveyed said that the current political climate in the US does not have an effect on their interest in studying there, versus 26% who said they didn’t like what’s happening in the US. Nine percent said that they were more interested in studying in the US given the current political climate. As the report notes, “the US brand remains strong and students continue to apply and enrol.”
• Two key concerns for prospective students are whether an institution or school has strong student services (such as help in applying for OPT) as well whether they will be able to get a student visa to study in the US.

South America

The South American sample comprised the following countries: Brazil, Colombia, Peru, Ecuador, Chile, Argentina, Venezuela, and Bolivia.

Social media: The most likely places to reach South American prospects on social media are WhatsApp (95% are on it at least once a week), YouTube (83%), Facebook (80%), and Instagram (80%).

Concerns about studying in the US: Just over one-third of students from the region said that obtaining a visa is their biggest worry when considering study in the US. Concern is also high (31%) regarding whether there would be an opportunity for a job in the US. And a majority said that affordability is their first consideration when evaluating travelling to the US for study.

Whether US-based or not, educators are well advised to highlight career placement services, job opportunities, and graduation employment rates in communications with prospective students from the region.

Study orientation: Seven in ten South American students were in non-STEM fields, and the largest proportion of these students were interested in business studies. Of the remaining students in STEM, the largest proportion were pursuing engineering.

Most of the sample was either interested in graduate degrees (38%) or English-language studies (31%), and 19% were considering undergraduate degrees.

The report advises educators to:

“Target STEM prospects for graduate programming and non-STEM prospects for English-language programmes. Target business & management and engineering programmes across all degrees offered.”

Characteristics of select markets

Zeroing in further on leading South American markets, we can observe the following:

Brazil

Brazilians are less worried about getting a visa (19%) than about an unfavourable exchange rate (38% – twice the proportion found in Mexico and three times that in Colombia) and being able to find a job in the US (32%), suggesting that affordability is an area of intense interest for Brazilians. Only 7% said that the political climate in the US would have a negative effect on their interest in studying in the US. Close to half of Brazilians priortise affordability and the same number prioritise student services.

Colombia

Like Mexicans (see below), Colombians are most worried about obtaining a visa (46%) and being able to get a job in the US (33%). They are much less worried about exchange rate issues (12%) and like Brazilians, are not overly bothered about the political environment in the US. Colombians prioritise affordability more than most nationalities surveyed (63%) and look for evidence of strong student services (58%).

Peru

Peruvian students are more like Colombians than Brazilians or Mexicans in terms of their concerns about study in the US. They worry most about being able to obtain a visa (47%) and being able to get a job in the US (30%), and the exchange rate as well as political environment in the US are not major barriers. Proportions saying that affordability and strong student services are most influential in their study abroad decision making are almost identical to those found in Colombia.

Mexico

As in South America, Mexican students are heavy users of WhatsApp (94% are on it at least once a week). Facebook, YouTube, and Instagram are also popular, and STEM graduate respondents were the most likely to favour Twitter and LinkedIn.

Mexicans are more worried than South Americans in general about obtaining a visa (40% – twice the proportion found in Brazil), and less concerned than them about getting a job once they’re there (19%). “Unfavourable political environment” rose as an issue that concerns Mexicans (18% versus 6% for South Americans in general). Affordability is most important influencer of whether Mexican students will study in the US (and where). The report naturally recommends highlighting financial aid that would be available to eligible Mexican students.

The profile of Mexican students is very similar to South American students, with a large majority in non-STEM fields and the most popular areas of study graduate and English-language programmes.

For additional information, please see:

• “Brazil’s outbound numbers surged in 2018”
• “From the field: Where are Mexican students going now?”
• “Where the students are: mobile, messaging, and apps”
• “Global survey highlights regional trends for English-language proficiency”

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The study is entitled , and it prompted a flurry of meetings over the summer to arrive at a strategy for boosting mobility in the region.

Most study outside of the region

The UNESCO study found that less than four in ten (38%) of the 312,000 Latin American and Caribbean students who studied abroad in 2017 remained in the region. Meanwhile, more than half (54%) chose to study in North America or Europe.

The most popular places within Latin America/Caribbean for students from the region are Argentina and Chile, which drew 84% and 87% of their foreign enrolments, respectively, from within the region.

The most attractive destinations in Latin America for international students from outside the region are Ecuador and Brazil. Just over half of international students in Brazil come from outside the region, many of them from Portugal, Spain, and the United States. Brazil also draws students from sub-Saharan Africa.

But overall, Latin America and the Caribbean are not hotspots for overseas students. In 2017, the region drew only 176,000 international students (a 3.5% share of the global total), 7 in 10 of which were from other Latin American/Caribbean countries. Another 12% came from North America and Western Europe.

New agreement

This past summer in Buenos Aires, representatives from 23 countries attended the organised by UNESCO. For three days, the delegates worked on an agreement to better harmonise education systems across Latin America and the Caribbean and thus pave the way for increased student mobility within the region. At the end of the conference, the representatives signed, on behalf of their countries, a new Convention for the Recognition of Studies, Diplomas and Higher Education Diplomas in Latin America and the Caribbean.

The signatory countries to the Convention are Argentina, Bahamas, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Granada, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Saint Kitts & Nevis, Uruguay and Venezuela.

The new agreement, also known as the “Buenos Aires Recognition Convention,” will commit all signatories to put “all the necessary measures” in place to allow for the recognition of various education credentials across the signatory countries. This, in turn, will make it easier for students to apply to and be accepted into other member countries’ education institutions. Smoothing such processes has been shown to be a major driver of intra-regional mobility (perhaps most notably in the EU where Erasmus+ allowed 800,000 Europeans to study, train, or volunteer in partner countries around the world in 2017).

The Buenos Aires Recognition Convention “will be implemented in synergy with the .” The secretariat for the new convention will be UNESCO’s International Institute for Higher Education in Latin America and the Caribbean (UNESCO-IESALC) in Caracas, Venezuela.

After the convention is ratified, credential evaluators will need to be trained and systems put in place to allow institutions to be able to easily assess Latin American students’ academic transcripts and diplomas/degrees. This, as is the case in all mobility agreements, will be a lengthy process, but at least the stage has now been set for it to happen.

A new step in internationalisation

Latin American students are no strangers to large-scale programmes aimed to enable them to travel abroad for study. For example, Mexico launched Proyecta 100,000 in 2013, a massive project intended to increase Mexican enrolments in US English-language training programmes to 100,000 by 2018. Canada has its own version of the initiative with Mexico: Proyecta 10,000.

Another significant agreement between Latin American/Caribbean countries and the US is , the goal of which is to boost the number of American students studying in Latin America and the Caribbean to 100,000 and bring 100,000 students to the United States by 2020.

Brazil’s Science Without Borders programme is now over, but from its beginning to end, it sent a huge number of students abroad to the US, Canada, and UK.

There has also been a project called CAMINOS (scheduled to end this October), an umbrella project designed to leverage existing mobility schemes between European and Latin American countries. CAMINOS was co-funded by the Erasmus+ Programme of the European Union and implemented through a consortium of 28 partners from Europe and Latin America.

For additional background, please see:

• “Southeast Asia trading and mobility bloc continues to take shape”
• “Mongolian outbound higher than estimated, most of it going to Asian powerhouses”
• “Top Asian institutions form new universities alliance”
• “Erasmus+ supported nearly 800,000 international placements in 2017”

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The students, more than half of whom studied at the graduate and post-graduate levels, were asked 14 questions, many of which focused on how changing economic conditions would affect their plans for study abroad.

Know your markets

The presentation in Denver drew in part on a previous FPP/Intead study, “Know Your Neighborhood: International Recruiting Fuelled by Regional Insights,” that illustrates how different students in various markets are in their attitudes and behaviours related to study abroad.

For example, while it is common for international educators to promote popular programmes such as general business or computer science, this wouldn’t resonate as well in Thailand as it would in other countries. That’s because Thais turn out to be most interested in studying the arts, education, human rights, international business, and medicine.

Students also differ in their hopes upon graduation: for example, Argentinians and Panamanians are more interested in bringing their newly acquired skills back home, while Malaysians, Indians, and Venezuelans are interested in staying abroad after their studies.

As international education markets continue to mature worldwide, knowing these tendencies should influence how you position your institution or school for prospective students. For example, if your country has attractive post-graduation work rights available to international students, that might play very well in Malaysia – but it would be less crucial to mention in Argentina. Intead CEO Benjamin Waxman noted how important it is to consider what makes your school unique in a given market, asking, “What can you say about your school that will make students think it is the best choice for them?”

The issue of affordability and the importance of scholarships

The latest Intead/FPP EDU research shows that in certain markets, large proportions of students are better able to afford studying abroad than they were two years ago. These include Algeria (where 81% indicated they could more easily afford to go abroad today), Vietnam (80%), and Colombia (75%). By contrast, only 40% of Italian respondents and 33% of Venezuelans felt that they could more readily afford to study abroad today compared to 2014.

Across the board, Mr Waxman said, students are attracted to the possibility of scholarships. He noted that especially on social media, students are very likely to click on any mention of scholarships, and concluded: “To the extent that you can use scholarships in your marketing tools, you should.” The research shows that in some markets – Venezuela, Brazil, and Malaysia – students are particularly influenced by a lack of scholarships for a given school or destination.

Unfavourable shifts in currency exchange rates can also have a profound effect on students in some markets. In Brazil, Mexico, Malaysia, and Indonesia, large proportions have postponed plans to study abroad for this reason, while in Venezuela and Argentina, many students said they would abandon plans to go abroad altogether.

Meanwhile, significant numbers of students in Indonesia, Vietnam, Brazil, and Malaysia said they are considering countries other than the US as their currency depreciates against the US dollar. Overall, nearly three in ten survey respondents (27%) indicated that they are planning on studying in a country other than the US “where my funds have more value.”

These currency effects open up an opportunity for schools from other English-speaking destination markets, and last year for example, we saw destinations such as Canada, Malta, South Africa, and Ireland gain traction in Brazil as the real declined sharply relative to other major world currencies.

This is not to say, however, that providers in more expensive destinations don’t have strategic options as well. US schools, for example, could adapt to sharper currency devaluations in some sending markets by offering tuition discounts, rebates, or more flexible payment schedules, or by targeting scholarships or other financial aid to students in those countries.

Tuition discounting, while widespread in some market segments, is often criticised as a short-sighted choice. We do, however, tend to see a spike in discounting activity in response to global economic pressures; in fall 2015, for example, there were reports of some language programme providers aggressively discounting in order to attract students in markets affected by currency devaluations.

Accept that economic crises are normal, and adapt strategies when necessary

The audience listening to the FPP/Intead presentation at NAFSA also heard that economic crises, or other significant market disruptions, are a constant factor in international education, and looked at a slide deck that outlined dozens of economic downturns that have occurred since the 1970s.

The reality, conference attendees were advised, is that “crisis is normal,” and international educators must be prepared for the eventuality that important sending markets will at one point or another will enter difficult times.

Rather than stepping back from troubled markets in those moments, the presenters urged calm and suggested instead that recruiters adopt a more balanced and adaptive approach:

1. Think in a different way: change your approach – the current one probably won’t be as effective as it has been, but another strategy might be;
2. Collect information – don’t rely on external media only, as such media is often overly dramatic, so make sure to get information from trusted local partners and other sources to get a real feeling for what’s going on;
3. Look for opportunities: A markets may shrink during crisis but this doesn’t mean that the right idea is to abandon the market.

Implicit in these suggestions is the idea that when a market is affected by an economic downturn, some institutions will pull back and this can reduce the competition for students – which can in turn open up potential market share gains for those who stay the course. Eventually of course the crisis will pass. And maintaining or expanding a presence in a market when it is going through tough times can be a strategic choice that will pay off over the long term once a recovery is underway and the underlying strengths that drew you to the market in the first place – economic fundamentals, demographics, supply-demand dynamics – begin to assert themselves again.

The FPP/Intead presentation underlined both (1) the profound effect that currency rates can have on international student mobility, and (2) the reality that schools have tools at their disposal to adapt to an economic crisis – and even to use it to deepen branding and long-term enrolments. The key is to understand the effect an economic crisis is having on students, and then to use data – and local sources – to develop strategies to maintain, or increase, market share.

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In 2003, the Ministry of Education (MINEDUC) launched Programa InglĂ©s Abre Puertas, or the English Opens Doors Programme. This initiative was specifically enacted with economic development in mind, and its goal was to give all young people at least some proficiency in English. It was aimed at all students, but centred on those who were disadvantaged. The government thought this would boost the country’s global competitiveness, reduce inequality, and democratise opportunities for young Chileans.

However, by 2010, TOEIC Bridge test results indicated that only 11% of grade 11 students had reached . While this was an improvement on the 5% result from 2004, the government had hoped A2 level would be reached by grade 8 students, and that grade 12 students would reach B1 or independent level by 2013. In addition, outcomes differ radically between rich and poor communities, mainly due to the fact that private school students begin learning English earlier and benefit from more teaching hours.

Data from EF Education First charts Chile’s efforts to raise its proficiency. In 2011 the country ranked 36 of 44 surveyed, with “very low” proficiency. 2012 and 2013 saw increases that pulled Chile’s ranking up to 38 of 52, then 44 of 60. But in 2014 Chile landed in 41st place out of 63 ranked nations, and 2015 brought a ranking of 36 out of 70. These results are relative to other countries but Chile’s overall proficiency has increased in five years from “very low” to “low,” moving it past nations such as China, however on the whole other countries in the survey are also improving.

Chile’s progress up the EF English Profiency Index ranking, 2011-2015. Source: EF

The English Opens Doors Programme (EODP), meanwhile, had challenges from the beginning. It was launched during a time when the Chilean education sector was dealing with inequality in access, inconsistent quality, and a countrywide teacher shortage, especially in rural regions. On top of all that, teacher funding has always been and remains a problem. Under budget guidelines, the government pays teachers for a minimum amount of hours, but any accumulation beyond that threshold must be paid for by individual schools.

At the university level, high levels of autonomy left schools outside EODP’s influence. The Ministry of Education introduced a set of guidelines for English teachers, but the standards were considered by some observers to be higher than those attainable by many schools. A lack of communication concerning teaching methods and curriculum also created problems.

EODP has been refined since to focus only on municipal schools in 15 regions. The Ministry of Education and local authorities have worked together to identify areas where the programme can be most effective, and reoriented those schools to maintain a special focus on English.

For many critics of the EODP, the main concerns revolve around national sovereignty issues related to widespread penetration of English, the potential extinction of the many indigenous languages in Chile, and the marginalisation of other world languages, which could in turn present barriers to creating fully rounded and globally engaged citizens. Yet people are keenly aware that employment barriers exist for those with limited or no English skills. According to the British Council, EODP is considered a success by its proponents, despite its shortcomings.

English and the people

Despite the logistical problems EODP has faced, an awareness of the benefits of English in the globalised economy has spread among the general population. A widely publicised study by the British job recruitment and employment agency Adecco showed that English speakers earned about 30% more than non-English speakers, and further survey data compiled by the British Council gives a clear picture of .

The link between household income and English proficiency in Chile. Source: British Council

The British Council asked Chilean speakers of English when they had learned the language and found that most had taken mandatory classes across various educational levels. Just over half (51%) had studied it in primary school, 70% at the secondary level, 59% at the undergraduate level, and 1% during postgraduate studies. The survey also showed that 3% learned it as students or teachers overseas, 4% while travelling overseas, 5% while participating in a government-funded programme, and 6% through their job.

Only about 20% of respondents said they had studied English at a private language school. Chile is home to numerous private English providers, but generally only upper and middle class students have the means to enrol at such schools. Online learning provides an alternative, however data shows that such methods are best suited for older students who possess the discipline for self-study. For younger learners, online language learning can be a challenge.

The British Council also looked at the other side of the equation, querying those who hadn’t learned English. The survey allowed respondents to select up to three reasons why they hadn’t learned the language. Those results appear in the chart below.

Barriers to learning English for Chilean students. Source: British Council

When non-learners were asked to choose up to three reasons why they would learn English, the vast majority (82%) said they would do it improve their employment prospects. Smaller percentages said they would do it travel abroad (53%), if classes were free (42%), to improve quality of their lives (35%), to consume English media (19%), to emigrate (18%), and to improve social status (16%).

British Council also surveyed Chilean employers and found that while 85% of companies communicated internally using Spanish, 15% used English. Most of those companies were in the business of education or language training. When asked which languages were used externally, 88% used Spanish, but 38% used English as well. This group was concentrated in the hospitality, entertainment, and restaurant industries, though education, accounting, architecture, and recruiting also made up a significant portion.

Echoing the relationship between income level and English proficiency, data also showed that managerial staff at responding companies had significantly higher English proficiency than non-managerial staff. Just over a third (34%) of respondents reported that more than 70% of managers were proficient in English. More than nine in ten managers (94%) agreed that English was an essential skill for managerial staff. The survey also asked how important English was to specific roles within companies. The results of those responses appear in the chart below.

The importance of English proficiency for selected fields and levels of employment. Source: British Council

Another important facet of English in Chile highlighted by British Council survey is the role that exposure to the language plays in learning. There are few opportunities in Chile’s far-flung rural reaches to practice speaking, reading, and writing English. The country boasts the highest internet penetration in Latin America, which helps bridge geographical distance in terms of English exposure, but even so only about 65% of the population is connected. That’s at the low end within the OECD, of which Chile is a member. By contrast internet penetration is at 95% in Sweden, 85% in the US, and 75% in Barbados.

Government policy

Chile’s geography has presented special challenges to government plans to increase English proficiency. Extending 4,300 kilometres north to south, much of the country is remote and mountainous, which presents obstacles to implementing policies evenly nationwide. Transport can be problematic. In smaller schools students are often taught in classes with no regard for age or grade, and in some areas school attendance is low. All of these characteristics present problems to administering quality English training.

Despite some problems in Chile’s ELT sector, demographic and market forces point toward overall demand for English increasing in coming years. However, Chile is one of the most economically unequal countries in Latin America, which means the best opportunity for international educators to attract a full spectrum of students lies with scholarship programmes such as PingĂŒinos sin Fronteras (Penguins Without Borders), a programme for secondary school students established in 2013, Semillero Rural, which focuses on vocational and technical training (especially in the agriculture sector), and BECAS Chile.

Families may have an uptick in available funds for education if President Michelle Bachelet follows through on her promise to ensure . She had initially announced a March 2016 timeline for achieving this goal, but at the moment only 14% of students in the poorest households attend university tuition-free, according to a study by Confech. Just weeks ago marched to demand progress on the free education front, as well as protest school privatisations and high student debt.

The government’s programme, however, hit another roadblock when Chile’s Constitutional Court blocked part of the free university proposal, necessitating changes to the plan. President Bachelet now promises that 70% of students will be receiving free higher education by 2018, and that universal access will be achieved in 2020.

Education costs are no small matter in Chile. For those who find themselves outside the free-tuition scheme in which to obtain a standard bachelor’s degree, when cost is measured as a percentage of household income. This means parents often take on crippling debt in order to pay for higher education-and is one reason the free-tuition movement has enjoyed up to 81% support for the general public.

Chile’s education reforms, while not directly focused on English proficiency, will ultimately change how language teaching is administered. Some of the new policies will place pressure on private schools, which could affect cost at these institutions in a way beneficial to the general population. The EODP means that English will be taught sooner and in more communities, while nationwide free university tuition, if it comes to pass, will boost learning opportunities for college students. All that to say, the expansion of English Language Teaching and English proficiency in Chile is destined to accelerate.

For additional background on this important Latin American market, please see our recent post, “Targeting demand for study abroad in Chile.”

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Our focus today is on its findings with respect to international mobility. Drawing largely on data through the 2012/13 academic year, Education at a Glance 2015 reaffirms many of the key characteristics of international mobility that we have come to understand over the past decade.

Ongoing rise in international student mobility

The number of foreign tertiary students enrolled worldwide increased by 50% between 2005 and 2012. As many as 4.5 million students were enrolled outside of their home countries in 2012 and the total number is estimated to have surpassed five million by this year.

The report notes, “Student mobility has increased dramatically over the recent past, due to a range of factors. The exploding demand for tertiary education worldwide and the perceived value of studying at prestigious post-secondary institutions abroad contribute to an increasing and diversified flow of international students, ranging from those who cannot find a place to study in post-secondary education at home to students of high academic achievement studying at high-quality programmes and institutions. In addition, the educational value associated with a diverse student body, the substantial revenues that can be earned by expanding education for international students, and economic and political considerations prompted some governments and institutions to make major efforts to attract students from outside their national borders.”

Asia is the engine of growth in global student mobility

It was the region of origin for 53% of all international students in 2012/13, and China and India remain the world’s first and second-largest source markets. “Asia is dominating,” said Andreas Schleicher, Director of the OECD Directorate for Education and Skills.

“That is where you can see the hunger for learning. Parents want their children to get a better education and they still quite often choose countries in the Western world, in OECD countries, to obtain those qualifications.

It may change in the future but at the moment that is still by a large margin the most dominant source of international students, followed by Europe, and with a large gap by Africa.”

Distribution of international students in tertiary education by region of origin, 2013. Source: OECD

Shifting market share

The US remains the leading study destination but, while absolute numbers of foreign students in America continue to increase, its market share has fallen. “That share is declining in the United States,” adds Mr Schleicher. “The market is dividing up quite differently with countries like Japan [and some European countries] getting a larger share.”

More broadly, Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, and the United Kingdom together receive more than 50% of all international students worldwide and OECD countries attract 73% of all students enrolled abroad.

Also of note: the number of international students enrolled in tertiary education in OECD countries was, on average, three times the number of students from OECD countries studying abroad.

Level of study variations for international students

Education at a Glance 2015 has some thought-provoking new observations as well. In particular, it highlights the growing importance of post-graduate programmes and the higher proportions of international student enrolment at advanced levels of study.

“The proportion of international students among total higher education enrolments tends to be much larger at the most advanced levels of tertiary education,” notes the report. “On average across OECD countries, 24% of students enrolled in doctoral or equivalent programmes are international students against an average of 9% in all levels of tertiary education.”

The OECD speculates that the following factors may be contributing to greater proportions of internationally mobile students in advanced studies:

• Particularly severe capacity constraints – that is, very limited opportunities for post-graduate or doctoral studies – in the students’ countries of origin;
• The benefits of study abroad, in terms of career opportunities and earning potential, are that much greater at advanced levels of study;
• Doctoral (or comparable level) students may simply be more likely to travel and live abroad, in part because they would be attractive to their host countries for their research contributions during their studies and/or as highly qualified immigrants.

The following chart makes the point quite vividly that while foreign students may represent a relatively small proportion of total undergraduate enrolment in a major destination like the US, their participation rates are much higher at the master’s and doctoral levels.

International student enrolment as a percentage of total tertiary enrolment in OECD countries, by level of study, 2013. Source: OECD

Hit the brakes?

The report also gives passing attention to a possibility that has begun to play on the minds of international educators in recent years: can the market keep growing as quickly as it has? More to the point, what happens if growth slows significantly?

There are a variety of inter-related demand factors that influence demand patterns for study abroad, including domestic capacity, economics, demographics, labour market requirements, and immigration policies. And on the question of future trends, OECD says only, “In the current economic climate, shrinking support for scholarships and grants, as well as tighter budgets for individuals, may slow the pace of student mobility.”

The report does go on, however, to explore the different elements that drive student decision-making around study abroad and it distills these down to the following decision factors:

• Language of instruction. Languages that are widely spoken and read are attractive and the “progressive adoption of English as a global language” remains a major factor in the prominence of English-speaking destinations. This underlying demand driver has also played an important part in the expansion of English-taught programmes in non-English-speaking destinations, including those in Europe.
• Quality of programmes. Study destination attractiveness correlates strongly to perceptions of quality, as derived from international university rankings but also from a wide range of other indicators of quality for individual institutions and programmes.
• Costs of study. Both tuition and costs of living factor here, and all are filtered through the lens of prevailing currency exchange rates. OECD notes cost as an important consideration but observes as well that higher tuition fees do not necessarily discourage prospective students so long as the quality of education is perceived to be high.
• Immigration policy. There is no question that the destination country’s policies around student immigration are one of the most important determinants of attractiveness for foreign students. This pertains to the ease (and timeliness) with which a student visa can be obtained but also to opportunities for the student to work during or after his or her studies. The prospects for immigration after graduation may also be an important factor for students and host countries alike.

The global classroom

Overall, the OECD’s findings for 2015 reflect a global marketplace for education that continues to expand, but that is also increasingly complex.

“Tertiary education is becoming more international through a number of means,” notes the report. “For example distance education, international education-related internships and training experiences, crossborder delivery of academic programmes, and offshore satellite campuses.”

The global education market is also characterised of late by more varied patterns of mobility. China, for example, remains the world’s leading source of mobile students but is now also an important study destination in its own right. The same is true for Malaysia and a number of other regional destinations around the globe.

Growth rates and other high-level market trends will continue to hold our attention in 2016. But this expanding range of shifting market conditions will also challenge and engage international educators in the years ahead.

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These are some of the key linkages advanced in the , the 5th annual edition of the EPI released earlier this month by Education First (). “English proficiency is less associated with the elite, and it is not as closely tied to the United States or the United Kingdom as it once was,” notes this year’s survey report.

“Instead, English is becoming a basic skill for the entire global workforce, in the same way that literacy has been transformed in the last two centuries from an elite privilege into a basic requirement for informed citizenship.”

This year’s EPI ranking includes 70 countries (up from 63 last year) and is based on online language tests undertaken by 910,000 adult English language learners over 2014. EF began gathering and analysing large volumes of data in 2007 and so this year’s report has the advantage of being able to look back and track trends over several years.

As we have noted of the EPI in the past, however, one necessary caution when looking at the rankings is that the EPI is not a statistically controlled study. The test subjects complete a free test online on a voluntary basis and as such, may not entirely reflect the overall English proficiency of a given country.

The EPI results are therefore best understood as directional indicators of proficiency in a given country or region, but they have a number of important findings to offer in that respect. The report also makes the interesting point that, “Regions are still the strongest predictor of English ability. This ‘neighborhood’ effect is particularly strong in parts of Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East.”

The 2015 round-up of global “neighbourhoods” finds that:

• Europe continues to lead the world in terms of English proficiency, particularly countries in Northern and Central Europe that have seen steady gains over the past five years;
• Latin America continues to be a low proficiency region but on average English skills have improved this year;
• Asia, the world’s most populous region, shows greater variability with countries at both the high and low end of the proficiency spectrum;
• The Middle East and North Africa demonstrates low levels of English ability overall and was the only region to register declining proficiency this year.

Placement of Asian countries by EF band for 2015, where the dark green at the left of the range indicates the Very High Proficiency band and the orange on the far right indicates the Very Low Proficiency band.

In terms of demographic variations, the 2015 survey finds that women generally speak better English than men in every country. However, this gender gap also tends to narrow in the higher proficiency countries.

The report notes as well that, “Worldwide, English proficiency levels are highest among young adults aged 18-20. However, on a global level, the difference in English ability between age cohorts is extremely small for adults under 30. On a national level, the story is quite different, with some countries showing stark generational differences and others almost none.”

China and Latin America changing places

Much has been made this year of China’s move down the rankings, and the fact that a number of Latin American countries – including Peru, Chile, Ecuador, Mexico, and Brazil – have moved past China on the global proficiency tables.

As in 2014, China remains in the “Low Proficiency” band again this year but it has fallen down the ranking table, from 37th place last year to 47th for 2015. EF is quick to point out that the longer-term trends clearly indicate that China has made considerable progress in building English proficiency over the past decade. The 2015 results, therefore, may reflect more a temporary slowdown in that progress than anything else. The report adds however that, “Despite China’s investments in English training, it remains stagnant in the Low Proficiency band. With a massive population spread across urban and rural areas, it struggles to significantly improve overall English proficiency.”

Within China, students in major cities such as Beijing and Shanghai had the highest test scores. Interestingly, EF also found that the proficiency of Chinese students aged 21 to 25 is lower than those aged 18 to 20 or 26 to 30.

Christopher McCormick, EF’s Senior Vice-President for academic affairs, recently explained to China Daily that . “More young working professionals in China are using English than ever before and this experience is giving them a higher level,” he said. “By comparison, university students have less exposure or practice, which led to a relatively lower proficiency either than younger students or working professionals.”

He added that for students aged between 18 and 20, their most recent experience of English is intensive English training for exams including gaokao. But once they are in university in China, they will be focusing on their academic studies and English is less of a priority at that point.

All that said, it is important to point out as well that China’s overall proficiency score declined by less than a single point (-.74) between 2014 and 2015. The change in ranking this year may have more to do with the fact that several new countries have been added to the survey and several others, notably in Latin America, have demonstrated higher proficiency scores for 2015.

EF says of the region, “Latin America has been on a positive trajectory since 2007
Of the 14 Latin American countries featured in this index, all but one has improved since last year
In recent years, policymakers and economists in Latin America have made education reform a top priority for advancing economic development. In 2014, several countries launched national initiatives for improving English language teaching in public schools.”

Placement of Latin American countries by EF band for 2015, where the dark green at the left of the range indicates the Very High Proficiency band and the orange on the far right indicates the Very Low Proficiency band.

Overall, Latin America is the most improved region in this year’s index. Panama demonstrated the greatest gains of any country in 2015 (moving up 5.07 points over its 2014 index rating), and all but one country in the region (Colombia) has either held steady or improved in 2015.

Argentina is the region’s sole entry in the Very High Proficiency band this year, and only three (Colombia, El Salvador, and Venezuela) remain in the Very Low Proficiency band.

Most of the gains in the region are attributed to large-scale education reforms and investment in either mobility or language learning. Most of these initiatives have only been enacted in the last few years and, while their sustainability and long-term impact remains to be seen, this also suggests the region may be poised for further gains in English proficiency in the years ahead.

Indeed, EF points to such investments as key, long-term contributors to greater English proficiency. “Unlike consumables like flipflops or computer chips, a rising demand for English skills does not guarantee a greater supply,” concludes the report. “Mastery of a language is difficult and expensive. Adult skill sets, particularly for complex tasks like speaking a language, have built-in inertia. In addition, adult English skills are largely determined by public school systems, not often known for their agility. Inertia and stability are not inherently negative, however. They also underlie consistently high adult English proficiency levels in some parts of the world.”

While English proficiency is not developing at the same rate in regions or countries around the world, the demand (and opportunities) for English speakers in the workforce remains strong. The same is true for the linkages between skills – language skills included – and economic and social development, all of which will continue to make EF’s global proficiency index worth watching closely in the years ahead.

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King Felipe VI of Spain, who was in Mexico presiding over the unveiling of the test along with his wife Queen Letizia, said, “We were missing a flexible, highly respected certificate of proficiency in Spanish as a foreign language along the lines of those offered for the English language.”

Called the Servicio Internacional de Evaluación de la Lengua Española, or SIELE, the test is modeled on English exams such as the TOEFL and IELTS, and debuts in 2016. According to an estimate provided by officials at the , 300,000 people will take the test in its first year, with that number rising to 750,000 by 2021.

The SIELE differs from the well-established Diplomas de Español como Lengua Extranjera (DELE) exam in a couple of important ways. A DELE certificate does not expire, for example, whereas the SIELE is valid for two years, and the DELE has more levels than the SIELE. However, the two exams are not meant to be competitive, but rather complementary, and the DELE will continue to be offered alongside the new test.

The SIELE examination will cover the four core communication skills: speaking, listening, reading, and writing. The reading and listening sections will be scored immediately, with the others assessed by accredited examiners within a target three-week turnaround for results. The test will be computer based, and administered year-round at a network of global test centres.

As opposed to the English exams it is patterned after, the SIELE will take into account different linguistic varieties of Spanish. For example, where the TOEFL tests only in American English, and Cambridge Exams test in British English, the SIELE will incorporate within a single exam the many different geographical variations of Spanish, a language that differs greatly from nation to nation.

King Felipe described the test as “pan-hispanic” in character. He added the new certificate would extend the global reach of Spanish, which he described to the audience as a heritage that “we must all look after, disseminate, and promote.”

Victor Garcia de la Concha, Director of the Cervantes Institute, voiced similar sentiments, saying SIELE was not merely a screening test, but also a means of promoting all forms of Spanish.

Spanish on the global scene

The stature of the three partners-in-development for the exam gives an indication of the expectations for its success. The National Autonomous University of Mexico and the 13th century-established are respectively the largest and oldest universities in the Spanish-speaking world, while the Cervantes Institute operates in 44 countries. With these institutions reaching out to the 550 million Spanish speakers around the world, the impact of the SIELE should be profound.

The initial test centres will be opened in three nations:

• China, with 60 centres covering 61% of the country;
• Brazil, with 120 centres reaching 81% of the country;
• USA, with 100 testing centres and a national penetration of 70%.

Moving forward, demand for the SIELE should be high in other countries with large numbers of Spanish learners such as France, Italy, Germany, and the West African nations.

In 2015, an estimated 21 million people are studying Spanish as a foreign language at all levels of education – an increase of 1.5 million from 2014, according to figures provided by the Spanish Federation of Associations of Schools of Spanish as a Foreign Language (FEDELE). However, the Cervantes Institute notes that because of incomplete data, the actual amount could be 25% higher. The Cervantes Institute indicates that the top countries for the study of Spanish include:

• USA (7,820,000 students);
• Brazil (6,120,000);
• France (2,589,717);
• Italy (687,152);
• Germany (554,423).

By the year 2030, Spanish speakers are projected to constitute 7.5% of the global population, and that percentage will increase to 10% within a maximum of four generations. In the United States, where there are already more than 50 million Spanish speakers, the usage of the language is expected to increase by 2050 to a level that will make America the top Spanish-speaking country in the world, surpassing even Mexico.

Spanish is also more prominent in the UK today than it was in the past. The British Council’s report identifies Spanish as the most important of all global tongues for Great Britain due to, among other factors, its usage in high-growth export markets. According to Goldman Sachs, three of “Next 11” – that is, the 11 fastest-growing markets in the developing world – are Spanish-speaking countries, while no other language is represented on the list more than once.

In yet another indication of the perceived importance of the language, across the globe in South Asia the government of the Philippines has expanded Spanish instruction in public secondary schools in an effort to restore the four-centuries-old cultural and economic ties between the Philippines and Spain. The Filipino government considers Spanish proficiency one of the key assets its citizens can use to leverage future employment and trade opportunities.

Furthermore, the chart below shows the top languages used on the Internet. Spanish ranks third, with an 8% share of a medium expected to reach three billion users this year.

Internet use by language. Source: Internet World Stats and British Council

Spanish plays an important role in global industries such as tourism and media, but is also growing within the realm of science. According to the Cervantes Institute, the number of scientific journals using Spanish constitutes 5% of the total, which represents a 130% increase since 2001. In addition, the number of Spanish journals included in Thomson Reuters’ annual publication Journal Citation Reports has increased fivefold since 1998.

Part of the language’s heightened stature may have to do with its mother country. Spain’s status in a number of scientific disciplines has improved in recent years, with 235,228 scientific documents produced between 2006 and 2010 by at least one author residing in Spain. Data from the National Evaluation and Foresight Agency shows high representation for Spain in scientific articles concerning space sciences, medicine, agricultural sciences, energy, physics, zoology, botany, and ecology.

Demand for Spanish language studies has been strong and growing over the past decade and current trends suggest that interest in learning the language will continue to strengthen in the years ahead.

An opportune moment

At a time of demographic growth and increasing importance in key areas of commerce and science for Spanish, the timing for the launch of the new SIELE is strong. King Felipe explained during the unveiling that, “If we want our language to reaffirm itself as the world’s second language of communication, we have to move beyond a short-term, self-absorbed vision, and pool everyone’s resources to achieve a goal that will benefit us all.”

But in addition to helping consolidate Spanish as one of the key languages of the future, the new proficiency certification offered by the SIELE is also well-timed for students. Globally recognised Spanish proficiency may lead students to new educational options in low-tuition countries such as Spain and Mexico, while later opening doors to employment opportunities in high-growth nations, as well as in more established markets, such as the United States, where Spanish continues to play an important role.

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These are some of the findings of the Pew Research Center’s . The study updates a similar effort from 2013, which highlighted the strong levels of web usage and engagement for social and mobile users. The findings for the 2014 edition are drawn from in-person interviews with 36,619 people across 32 emerging and developing countries conducted from March 17 to June 5, 2014. The results for those 32 countries – including significant education markets such as China, India, Nigeria, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Brazil, and Mexico – have been benchmarked against a related Pew Center telephone survey of 1,002 Americans, also conducted in 2014.

The study’s high-level findings provide a compact overview of Internet access in developing and emerging economies, along with important insights as to how people access and use the Internet in each country.

For example, the following graphic illustrates the percentage of the population in each country who access the Internet at least occasionally or own a smartphone (as smartphone users, practically speaking, are also Internet users).

Those who access the Internet at least occasionally or own a smartphone within the 32 countries in the 2014 Global Attitudes study. Source: Pew Research Center

Do some of those numbers look lower than you would expect? If so, it is probably because you spend a lot of time talking to students. The Pew study points out that Internet usage is highly concentrated within younger demographics in developing and emerging economies, particularly among those with a high school education or higher and particularly among those who can speak or read English.

The following table summarises the variances in Internet usage for these factors, and, as you will see, they are quite striking in some cases. (Please note that some table cells are left empty for some countries due to insufficient sample size for the characteristic in question.)

Internet usage by age, education, and English ability among the 32 countries in the 2014 Global Attitudes study. Source: Pew Research Center

These findings make intuitive sense in that the 18-to-34-year-old demographic came of age during a period of dramatic technological change, including the emergence of the Internet and the widespread adoption of mobile devices. In addition to these factors, and, as was the case in last year’s global survey, the 2014 study also finds a close correlation between Internet usage and income. Simply put, “Richer countries in terms of gross domestic product per capita have more Internet users among the adult population compared with poorer nations.”

Also echoing last year’s study, Pew finds that Internet users in developing and emerging economies are highly engaged socially. Staying in touch with friends and family and engagement with social media remain the leading ways in which they like to use the Internet.

This point reinforces an important aspect of communicating with secondary school and college-age Internet users: they are highly engaged socially and those social channels in turn are an important source of information and product or service recommendations. A recent post from NewBrand Analytics makes the point concisely:

“A study of millennials [that is, those born between 1980 and 2000] states that 95% of respondents say friends are their most credible source for information when making a purchase. Additionally, 98% are more likely to engage with posts by friends about a brand versus a post by the brand itself. Therefore, an effective method to get millennials loyal to your brand is to get other millennials talking online.”

Following on from the importance of this highly socialised exchange, Pew also finds that searching for more practical news and information is the next major category of Internet usage in developing and emerging economies. “For Internet users in emerging and developing nations, social relationships are a fundamental aspect of their interaction with the virtual world,” says the study. “Getting various types of information, such as political news, health information and government services, is the next tier of Internet use.”

What’s in your pocket?

The Pew report also has some important observations in terms of how users in developing and emerging economies access the Internet. It tracks usage and ownership of desktop computers from country to country but also smartphone and cell phone penetration as well.

The report notes, “Overall, a median of 38% across the 32 nations surveyed say they have a working computer in their household. In 11 countries, half or more own computers, including 78% in Russia – comparable to the 80% of Americans who say they have a computer in their household. Computer ownership is relatively high in a number of Latin American nations. Majorities in Chile (72%), Venezuela (61%), Argentina (58%) and Brazil (55%) have computers in their homes. Computer ownership rates are lowest in sub-Saharan African nations.”

The extent to which users in each country have reliable access to computers outside the home (e.g., at school or at work) is less clear. Leaving this aspect aside for a moment, we can see that computer ownership broadly correlates to national income levels and explains at least part of the relationship between Internet usage and income that we noted earlier.

Along that same line, cell phone ownership is much more common in the emerging and developing countries in the Pew survey. A median of 84% (across all 32 countries) own a cell phone of some kind. This compares to the US benchmark of 90% for cell phone ownership, and the survey finds a marked difference still between the penetration of more basic cell phones as opposed to smartphones. “Smartphones – and the mobile access to the Internet that they make possible in some locations – are not nearly as common as conventional cell phones. A median of only 24% say they own a cell phone that can access the Internet and applications.”

Percentage of 2014 Global Attitude respondents who own a smartphone or cell phone. Source: Pew Research Center

However, phone ownership again underscores the relationship between age and Internet usage. As with the broader correlation the study observes between these factors, smartphone ownership is also highly concentrated among younger users. “Young people (those under 35) are significantly more likely than their older counterparts to own an iPhone, BlackBerry, Android or other Internet-capable mobile phone,” says Pew.

Overall, the study makes an important point that broader statistics of Internet penetration and usage in developing and emerging economies have to be interpreted via some important filters, including age, education, English ability, and income. In an international education context, the high school and college-age prospects that educators and agents are mainly trying to reach are among the heaviest users of web and mobile technologies. In this sense, the findings of the 2014 Pew study will only reinforce the importance of the Internet, and the social and mobile web in particular, as a key channel for reaching and engaging prospective students.

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