On a survey-wide basis, however, there are some important global findings regarding perceptions of the US as well as potential barriers to study abroad:

• Two-thirds of prospective students surveyed said that the current political climate in the US does not have an effect on their interest in studying there, versus 26% who said they didn’t like what’s happening in the US. Nine percent said that they were more interested in studying in the US given the current political climate. As the report notes, “the US brand remains strong and students continue to apply and enrol.”
• Two key concerns for prospective students are whether an institution or school has strong student services (such as help in applying for OPT) as well whether they will be able to get a student visa to study in the US.

South America

The South American sample comprised the following countries: Brazil, Colombia, Peru, Ecuador, Chile, Argentina, Venezuela, and Bolivia.

Social media: The most likely places to reach South American prospects on social media are WhatsApp (95% are on it at least once a week), YouTube (83%), Facebook (80%), and Instagram (80%).

Concerns about studying in the US: Just over one-third of students from the region said that obtaining a visa is their biggest worry when considering study in the US. Concern is also high (31%) regarding whether there would be an opportunity for a job in the US. And a majority said that affordability is their first consideration when evaluating travelling to the US for study.

Whether US-based or not, educators are well advised to highlight career placement services, job opportunities, and graduation employment rates in communications with prospective students from the region.

Study orientation: Seven in ten South American students were in non-STEM fields, and the largest proportion of these students were interested in business studies. Of the remaining students in STEM, the largest proportion were pursuing engineering.

Most of the sample was either interested in graduate degrees (38%) or English-language studies (31%), and 19% were considering undergraduate degrees.

The report advises educators to:

“Target STEM prospects for graduate programming and non-STEM prospects for English-language programmes. Target business & management and engineering programmes across all degrees offered.”

Characteristics of select markets

Zeroing in further on leading South American markets, we can observe the following:

Brazil

Brazilians are less worried about getting a visa (19%) than about an unfavourable exchange rate (38% – twice the proportion found in Mexico and three times that in Colombia) and being able to find a job in the US (32%), suggesting that affordability is an area of intense interest for Brazilians. Only 7% said that the political climate in the US would have a negative effect on their interest in studying in the US. Close to half of Brazilians priortise affordability and the same number prioritise student services.

Colombia

Like Mexicans (see below), Colombians are most worried about obtaining a visa (46%) and being able to get a job in the US (33%). They are much less worried about exchange rate issues (12%) and like Brazilians, are not overly bothered about the political environment in the US. Colombians prioritise affordability more than most nationalities surveyed (63%) and look for evidence of strong student services (58%).

Peru

Peruvian students are more like Colombians than Brazilians or Mexicans in terms of their concerns about study in the US. They worry most about being able to obtain a visa (47%) and being able to get a job in the US (30%), and the exchange rate as well as political environment in the US are not major barriers. Proportions saying that affordability and strong student services are most influential in their study abroad decision making are almost identical to those found in Colombia.

Mexico

As in South America, Mexican students are heavy users of WhatsApp (94% are on it at least once a week). Facebook, YouTube, and Instagram are also popular, and STEM graduate respondents were the most likely to favour Twitter and LinkedIn.

Mexicans are more worried than South Americans in general about obtaining a visa (40% – twice the proportion found in Brazil), and less concerned than them about getting a job once they’re there (19%). “Unfavourable political environment” rose as an issue that concerns Mexicans (18% versus 6% for South Americans in general). Affordability is most important influencer of whether Mexican students will study in the US (and where). The report naturally recommends highlighting financial aid that would be available to eligible Mexican students.

The profile of Mexican students is very similar to South American students, with a large majority in non-STEM fields and the most popular areas of study graduate and English-language programmes.

For additional information, please see:

• “Brazil’s outbound numbers surged in 2018”
• “From the field: Where are Mexican students going now?”
• “Where the students are: mobile, messaging, and apps”
• “Global survey highlights regional trends for English-language proficiency”

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The study is entitled , and it prompted a flurry of meetings over the summer to arrive at a strategy for boosting mobility in the region.

Most study outside of the region

The UNESCO study found that less than four in ten (38%) of the 312,000 Latin American and Caribbean students who studied abroad in 2017 remained in the region. Meanwhile, more than half (54%) chose to study in North America or Europe.

The most popular places within Latin America/Caribbean for students from the region are Argentina and Chile, which drew 84% and 87% of their foreign enrolments, respectively, from within the region.

The most attractive destinations in Latin America for international students from outside the region are Ecuador and Brazil. Just over half of international students in Brazil come from outside the region, many of them from Portugal, Spain, and the United States. Brazil also draws students from sub-Saharan Africa.

But overall, Latin America and the Caribbean are not hotspots for overseas students. In 2017, the region drew only 176,000 international students (a 3.5% share of the global total), 7 in 10 of which were from other Latin American/Caribbean countries. Another 12% came from North America and Western Europe.

New agreement

This past summer in Buenos Aires, representatives from 23 countries attended the organised by UNESCO. For three days, the delegates worked on an agreement to better harmonise education systems across Latin America and the Caribbean and thus pave the way for increased student mobility within the region. At the end of the conference, the representatives signed, on behalf of their countries, a new Convention for the Recognition of Studies, Diplomas and Higher Education Diplomas in Latin America and the Caribbean.

The signatory countries to the Convention are Argentina, Bahamas, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Granada, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Saint Kitts & Nevis, Uruguay and Venezuela.

The new agreement, also known as the “Buenos Aires Recognition Convention,” will commit all signatories to put “all the necessary measures” in place to allow for the recognition of various education credentials across the signatory countries. This, in turn, will make it easier for students to apply to and be accepted into other member countries’ education institutions. Smoothing such processes has been shown to be a major driver of intra-regional mobility (perhaps most notably in the EU where Erasmus+ allowed 800,000 Europeans to study, train, or volunteer in partner countries around the world in 2017).

The Buenos Aires Recognition Convention “will be implemented in synergy with the .” The secretariat for the new convention will be UNESCO’s International Institute for Higher Education in Latin America and the Caribbean (UNESCO-IESALC) in Caracas, Venezuela.

After the convention is ratified, credential evaluators will need to be trained and systems put in place to allow institutions to be able to easily assess Latin American students’ academic transcripts and diplomas/degrees. This, as is the case in all mobility agreements, will be a lengthy process, but at least the stage has now been set for it to happen.

A new step in internationalisation

Latin American students are no strangers to large-scale programmes aimed to enable them to travel abroad for study. For example, Mexico launched Proyecta 100,000 in 2013, a massive project intended to increase Mexican enrolments in US English-language training programmes to 100,000 by 2018. Canada has its own version of the initiative with Mexico: Proyecta 10,000.

Another significant agreement between Latin American/Caribbean countries and the US is , the goal of which is to boost the number of American students studying in Latin America and the Caribbean to 100,000 and bring 100,000 students to the United States by 2020.

Brazil’s Science Without Borders programme is now over, but from its beginning to end, it sent a huge number of students abroad to the US, Canada, and UK.

There has also been a project called CAMINOS (scheduled to end this October), an umbrella project designed to leverage existing mobility schemes between European and Latin American countries. CAMINOS was co-funded by the Erasmus+ Programme of the European Union and implemented through a consortium of 28 partners from Europe and Latin America.

For additional background, please see:

• “Southeast Asia trading and mobility bloc continues to take shape”
• “Mongolian outbound higher than estimated, most of it going to Asian powerhouses”
• “Top Asian institutions form new universities alliance”
• “Erasmus+ supported nearly 800,000 international placements in 2017”

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The students, more than half of whom studied at the graduate and post-graduate levels, were asked 14 questions, many of which focused on how changing economic conditions would affect their plans for study abroad.

Know your markets

The presentation in Denver drew in part on a previous FPP/Intead study, “Know Your Neighborhood: International Recruiting Fuelled by Regional Insights,” that illustrates how different students in various markets are in their attitudes and behaviours related to study abroad.

For example, while it is common for international educators to promote popular programmes such as general business or computer science, this wouldn’t resonate as well in Thailand as it would in other countries. That’s because Thais turn out to be most interested in studying the arts, education, human rights, international business, and medicine.

Students also differ in their hopes upon graduation: for example, Argentinians and Panamanians are more interested in bringing their newly acquired skills back home, while Malaysians, Indians, and Venezuelans are interested in staying abroad after their studies.

As international education markets continue to mature worldwide, knowing these tendencies should influence how you position your institution or school for prospective students. For example, if your country has attractive post-graduation work rights available to international students, that might play very well in Malaysia – but it would be less crucial to mention in Argentina. Intead CEO Benjamin Waxman noted how important it is to consider what makes your school unique in a given market, asking, “What can you say about your school that will make students think it is the best choice for them?”

The issue of affordability and the importance of scholarships

The latest Intead/FPP EDU research shows that in certain markets, large proportions of students are better able to afford studying abroad than they were two years ago. These include Algeria (where 81% indicated they could more easily afford to go abroad today), Vietnam (80%), and Colombia (75%). By contrast, only 40% of Italian respondents and 33% of Venezuelans felt that they could more readily afford to study abroad today compared to 2014.

Across the board, Mr Waxman said, students are attracted to the possibility of scholarships. He noted that especially on social media, students are very likely to click on any mention of scholarships, and concluded: “To the extent that you can use scholarships in your marketing tools, you should.” The research shows that in some markets – Venezuela, Brazil, and Malaysia – students are particularly influenced by a lack of scholarships for a given school or destination.

Unfavourable shifts in currency exchange rates can also have a profound effect on students in some markets. In Brazil, Mexico, Malaysia, and Indonesia, large proportions have postponed plans to study abroad for this reason, while in Venezuela and Argentina, many students said they would abandon plans to go abroad altogether.

Meanwhile, significant numbers of students in Indonesia, Vietnam, Brazil, and Malaysia said they are considering countries other than the US as their currency depreciates against the US dollar. Overall, nearly three in ten survey respondents (27%) indicated that they are planning on studying in a country other than the US “where my funds have more value.”

These currency effects open up an opportunity for schools from other English-speaking destination markets, and last year for example, we saw destinations such as Canada, Malta, South Africa, and Ireland gain traction in Brazil as the real declined sharply relative to other major world currencies.

This is not to say, however, that providers in more expensive destinations don’t have strategic options as well. US schools, for example, could adapt to sharper currency devaluations in some sending markets by offering tuition discounts, rebates, or more flexible payment schedules, or by targeting scholarships or other financial aid to students in those countries.

Tuition discounting, while widespread in some market segments, is often criticised as a short-sighted choice. We do, however, tend to see a spike in discounting activity in response to global economic pressures; in fall 2015, for example, there were reports of some language programme providers aggressively discounting in order to attract students in markets affected by currency devaluations.

Accept that economic crises are normal, and adapt strategies when necessary

The audience listening to the FPP/Intead presentation at NAFSA also heard that economic crises, or other significant market disruptions, are a constant factor in international education, and looked at a slide deck that outlined dozens of economic downturns that have occurred since the 1970s.

The reality, conference attendees were advised, is that “crisis is normal,” and international educators must be prepared for the eventuality that important sending markets will at one point or another will enter difficult times.

Rather than stepping back from troubled markets in those moments, the presenters urged calm and suggested instead that recruiters adopt a more balanced and adaptive approach:

1. Think in a different way: change your approach – the current one probably won’t be as effective as it has been, but another strategy might be;
2. Collect information – don’t rely on external media only, as such media is often overly dramatic, so make sure to get information from trusted local partners and other sources to get a real feeling for what’s going on;
3. Look for opportunities: A markets may shrink during crisis but this doesn’t mean that the right idea is to abandon the market.

Implicit in these suggestions is the idea that when a market is affected by an economic downturn, some institutions will pull back and this can reduce the competition for students – which can in turn open up potential market share gains for those who stay the course. Eventually of course the crisis will pass. And maintaining or expanding a presence in a market when it is going through tough times can be a strategic choice that will pay off over the long term once a recovery is underway and the underlying strengths that drew you to the market in the first place – economic fundamentals, demographics, supply-demand dynamics – begin to assert themselves again.

The FPP/Intead presentation underlined both (1) the profound effect that currency rates can have on international student mobility, and (2) the reality that schools have tools at their disposal to adapt to an economic crisis – and even to use it to deepen branding and long-term enrolments. The key is to understand the effect an economic crisis is having on students, and then to use data – and local sources – to develop strategies to maintain, or increase, market share.

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These are some of the key linkages advanced in the , the 5th annual edition of the EPI released earlier this month by Education First (). “English proficiency is less associated with the elite, and it is not as closely tied to the United States or the United Kingdom as it once was,” notes this year’s survey report.

“Instead, English is becoming a basic skill for the entire global workforce, in the same way that literacy has been transformed in the last two centuries from an elite privilege into a basic requirement for informed citizenship.”

This year’s EPI ranking includes 70 countries (up from 63 last year) and is based on online language tests undertaken by 910,000 adult English language learners over 2014. EF began gathering and analysing large volumes of data in 2007 and so this year’s report has the advantage of being able to look back and track trends over several years.

As we have noted of the EPI in the past, however, one necessary caution when looking at the rankings is that the EPI is not a statistically controlled study. The test subjects complete a free test online on a voluntary basis and as such, may not entirely reflect the overall English proficiency of a given country.

The EPI results are therefore best understood as directional indicators of proficiency in a given country or region, but they have a number of important findings to offer in that respect. The report also makes the interesting point that, “Regions are still the strongest predictor of English ability. This ‘neighborhood’ effect is particularly strong in parts of Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East.”

The 2015 round-up of global “neighbourhoods” finds that:

• Europe continues to lead the world in terms of English proficiency, particularly countries in Northern and Central Europe that have seen steady gains over the past five years;
• Latin America continues to be a low proficiency region but on average English skills have improved this year;
• Asia, the world’s most populous region, shows greater variability with countries at both the high and low end of the proficiency spectrum;
• The Middle East and North Africa demonstrates low levels of English ability overall and was the only region to register declining proficiency this year.

Placement of Asian countries by EF band for 2015, where the dark green at the left of the range indicates the Very High Proficiency band and the orange on the far right indicates the Very Low Proficiency band.

In terms of demographic variations, the 2015 survey finds that women generally speak better English than men in every country. However, this gender gap also tends to narrow in the higher proficiency countries.

The report notes as well that, “Worldwide, English proficiency levels are highest among young adults aged 18-20. However, on a global level, the difference in English ability between age cohorts is extremely small for adults under 30. On a national level, the story is quite different, with some countries showing stark generational differences and others almost none.”

China and Latin America changing places

Much has been made this year of China’s move down the rankings, and the fact that a number of Latin American countries – including Peru, Chile, Ecuador, Mexico, and Brazil – have moved past China on the global proficiency tables.

As in 2014, China remains in the “Low Proficiency” band again this year but it has fallen down the ranking table, from 37th place last year to 47th for 2015. EF is quick to point out that the longer-term trends clearly indicate that China has made considerable progress in building English proficiency over the past decade. The 2015 results, therefore, may reflect more a temporary slowdown in that progress than anything else. The report adds however that, “Despite China’s investments in English training, it remains stagnant in the Low Proficiency band. With a massive population spread across urban and rural areas, it struggles to significantly improve overall English proficiency.”

Within China, students in major cities such as Beijing and Shanghai had the highest test scores. Interestingly, EF also found that the proficiency of Chinese students aged 21 to 25 is lower than those aged 18 to 20 or 26 to 30.

Christopher McCormick, EF’s Senior Vice-President for academic affairs, recently explained to China Daily that . “More young working professionals in China are using English than ever before and this experience is giving them a higher level,” he said. “By comparison, university students have less exposure or practice, which led to a relatively lower proficiency either than younger students or working professionals.”

He added that for students aged between 18 and 20, their most recent experience of English is intensive English training for exams including gaokao. But once they are in university in China, they will be focusing on their academic studies and English is less of a priority at that point.

All that said, it is important to point out as well that China’s overall proficiency score declined by less than a single point (-.74) between 2014 and 2015. The change in ranking this year may have more to do with the fact that several new countries have been added to the survey and several others, notably in Latin America, have demonstrated higher proficiency scores for 2015.

EF says of the region, “Latin America has been on a positive trajectory since 2007
Of the 14 Latin American countries featured in this index, all but one has improved since last year
In recent years, policymakers and economists in Latin America have made education reform a top priority for advancing economic development. In 2014, several countries launched national initiatives for improving English language teaching in public schools.”

Placement of Latin American countries by EF band for 2015, where the dark green at the left of the range indicates the Very High Proficiency band and the orange on the far right indicates the Very Low Proficiency band.

Overall, Latin America is the most improved region in this year’s index. Panama demonstrated the greatest gains of any country in 2015 (moving up 5.07 points over its 2014 index rating), and all but one country in the region (Colombia) has either held steady or improved in 2015.

Argentina is the region’s sole entry in the Very High Proficiency band this year, and only three (Colombia, El Salvador, and Venezuela) remain in the Very Low Proficiency band.

Most of the gains in the region are attributed to large-scale education reforms and investment in either mobility or language learning. Most of these initiatives have only been enacted in the last few years and, while their sustainability and long-term impact remains to be seen, this also suggests the region may be poised for further gains in English proficiency in the years ahead.

Indeed, EF points to such investments as key, long-term contributors to greater English proficiency. “Unlike consumables like flipflops or computer chips, a rising demand for English skills does not guarantee a greater supply,” concludes the report. “Mastery of a language is difficult and expensive. Adult skill sets, particularly for complex tasks like speaking a language, have built-in inertia. In addition, adult English skills are largely determined by public school systems, not often known for their agility. Inertia and stability are not inherently negative, however. They also underlie consistently high adult English proficiency levels in some parts of the world.”

While English proficiency is not developing at the same rate in regions or countries around the world, the demand (and opportunities) for English speakers in the workforce remains strong. The same is true for the linkages between skills – language skills included – and economic and social development, all of which will continue to make EF’s global proficiency index worth watching closely in the years ahead.

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King Felipe VI of Spain, who was in Mexico presiding over the unveiling of the test along with his wife Queen Letizia, said, “We were missing a flexible, highly respected certificate of proficiency in Spanish as a foreign language along the lines of those offered for the English language.”

Called the Servicio Internacional de Evaluación de la Lengua Española, or SIELE, the test is modeled on English exams such as the TOEFL and IELTS, and debuts in 2016. According to an estimate provided by officials at the , 300,000 people will take the test in its first year, with that number rising to 750,000 by 2021.

The SIELE differs from the well-established Diplomas de Español como Lengua Extranjera (DELE) exam in a couple of important ways. A DELE certificate does not expire, for example, whereas the SIELE is valid for two years, and the DELE has more levels than the SIELE. However, the two exams are not meant to be competitive, but rather complementary, and the DELE will continue to be offered alongside the new test.

The SIELE examination will cover the four core communication skills: speaking, listening, reading, and writing. The reading and listening sections will be scored immediately, with the others assessed by accredited examiners within a target three-week turnaround for results. The test will be computer based, and administered year-round at a network of global test centres.

As opposed to the English exams it is patterned after, the SIELE will take into account different linguistic varieties of Spanish. For example, where the TOEFL tests only in American English, and Cambridge Exams test in British English, the SIELE will incorporate within a single exam the many different geographical variations of Spanish, a language that differs greatly from nation to nation.

King Felipe described the test as “pan-hispanic” in character. He added the new certificate would extend the global reach of Spanish, which he described to the audience as a heritage that “we must all look after, disseminate, and promote.”

Victor Garcia de la Concha, Director of the Cervantes Institute, voiced similar sentiments, saying SIELE was not merely a screening test, but also a means of promoting all forms of Spanish.

Spanish on the global scene

The stature of the three partners-in-development for the exam gives an indication of the expectations for its success. The National Autonomous University of Mexico and the 13th century-established are respectively the largest and oldest universities in the Spanish-speaking world, while the Cervantes Institute operates in 44 countries. With these institutions reaching out to the 550 million Spanish speakers around the world, the impact of the SIELE should be profound.

The initial test centres will be opened in three nations:

• China, with 60 centres covering 61% of the country;
• Brazil, with 120 centres reaching 81% of the country;
• USA, with 100 testing centres and a national penetration of 70%.

Moving forward, demand for the SIELE should be high in other countries with large numbers of Spanish learners such as France, Italy, Germany, and the West African nations.

In 2015, an estimated 21 million people are studying Spanish as a foreign language at all levels of education – an increase of 1.5 million from 2014, according to figures provided by the Spanish Federation of Associations of Schools of Spanish as a Foreign Language (FEDELE). However, the Cervantes Institute notes that because of incomplete data, the actual amount could be 25% higher. The Cervantes Institute indicates that the top countries for the study of Spanish include:

• USA (7,820,000 students);
• Brazil (6,120,000);
• France (2,589,717);
• Italy (687,152);
• Germany (554,423).

By the year 2030, Spanish speakers are projected to constitute 7.5% of the global population, and that percentage will increase to 10% within a maximum of four generations. In the United States, where there are already more than 50 million Spanish speakers, the usage of the language is expected to increase by 2050 to a level that will make America the top Spanish-speaking country in the world, surpassing even Mexico.

Spanish is also more prominent in the UK today than it was in the past. The British Council’s report identifies Spanish as the most important of all global tongues for Great Britain due to, among other factors, its usage in high-growth export markets. According to Goldman Sachs, three of “Next 11” – that is, the 11 fastest-growing markets in the developing world – are Spanish-speaking countries, while no other language is represented on the list more than once.

In yet another indication of the perceived importance of the language, across the globe in South Asia the government of the Philippines has expanded Spanish instruction in public secondary schools in an effort to restore the four-centuries-old cultural and economic ties between the Philippines and Spain. The Filipino government considers Spanish proficiency one of the key assets its citizens can use to leverage future employment and trade opportunities.

Furthermore, the chart below shows the top languages used on the Internet. Spanish ranks third, with an 8% share of a medium expected to reach three billion users this year.

Internet use by language. Source: Internet World Stats and British Council

Spanish plays an important role in global industries such as tourism and media, but is also growing within the realm of science. According to the Cervantes Institute, the number of scientific journals using Spanish constitutes 5% of the total, which represents a 130% increase since 2001. In addition, the number of Spanish journals included in Thomson Reuters’ annual publication Journal Citation Reports has increased fivefold since 1998.

Part of the language’s heightened stature may have to do with its mother country. Spain’s status in a number of scientific disciplines has improved in recent years, with 235,228 scientific documents produced between 2006 and 2010 by at least one author residing in Spain. Data from the National Evaluation and Foresight Agency shows high representation for Spain in scientific articles concerning space sciences, medicine, agricultural sciences, energy, physics, zoology, botany, and ecology.

Demand for Spanish language studies has been strong and growing over the past decade and current trends suggest that interest in learning the language will continue to strengthen in the years ahead.

An opportune moment

At a time of demographic growth and increasing importance in key areas of commerce and science for Spanish, the timing for the launch of the new SIELE is strong. King Felipe explained during the unveiling that, “If we want our language to reaffirm itself as the world’s second language of communication, we have to move beyond a short-term, self-absorbed vision, and pool everyone’s resources to achieve a goal that will benefit us all.”

But in addition to helping consolidate Spanish as one of the key languages of the future, the new proficiency certification offered by the SIELE is also well-timed for students. Globally recognised Spanish proficiency may lead students to new educational options in low-tuition countries such as Spain and Mexico, while later opening doors to employment opportunities in high-growth nations, as well as in more established markets, such as the United States, where Spanish continues to play an important role.

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Venezuelan education

Education in Venezuela is administered and regulated by the Ministry of Education. Schooling is compulsory for the first nine years, after which students are streamed into humanities and sciences for two years before earning a bachiller, or directed into two-to-three-year specialised schooling leading to a technical degree.

A growing industrial sector has spurred increasing numbers of young people to attend . At these schools they can choose from a range of short self-improvement courses to more in-depth courses that end with full trade qualifications at the end of three years. According to the World Bank’s most recent survey, which was conducted in 2012, there were in Venezuela at that time.

Public education is free and open to all Venezuelans all the way through the tertiary level, but private schooling is an option chosen by many families, particularly at the secondary level. However, the private sector’s share of tertiary students is less than 20%, down from a high of around 40% during the late 1990s. Private schools, like public schools, are supervised by the Ministry of Education, and are required to meet the same curricular standards.

Overall access to education has improved greatly in the last decade. The anti-poverty organisation Bolivarian Missions, launched in 2003 with a focus on literacy and university preparation, expanded educational opportunities to previously excluded impoverished segments of the population. Open university admissions, the creation of new public universities, and university outreach programmes have boosted post-secondary enrolment from 670,000 in 1998 to .

One institution established in 2003 – the Bolivarian University of Venezuela – has reached a present-day enrolment of more than 180,000 students, and aims to eventually accept one million at campuses spread across the country. The courses offered are those considered by the government to be national priorities, such as engineering, law, and health care, and graduates are expected to staff free public health clinics, literacy centres, and government media outlets.

The overall tertiary enrolment ratio passed 78% in 2009, the last year for which such data is available. The graph below, from Quandl, shows the general upswing beginning in 1975.

Tertiary enrolment in Venezuela, 1975-2009. Source: Quandl

The steepest gains occurred on the watch of former President Hugo ChĂĄvez, who died in 2013. In the last few years of his rule, political challenges had begun to mount, and it is his successor NicolĂĄs Maduro who has seen many of those same issues erode his approval rating to barely more than 20%.

The upcoming parliamentary election in December could see President Maduro’s support in the National Assembly crippled by a 29-party super coalition that has gained strength from citizen dissatisfaction with high inflation, high crime, and recurring consumer goods shortages.

In the education sector, to take jobs in other fields or countries. The key issue for faculty is low pay, and the main effect has been a general lowering of teaching and research quality in the country’s universities.

In the past, many Venezuelans who studied abroad later returned home to teach. Today, those who earn advanced degrees overseas rarely return. Already an estimated 9,000 Venezuelan scientists are living in the United States, compared with 6,000 employed in Venezuela.

Critics of the original ChĂĄvez education expansion say that free access to new universities encouraged tens of thousands of students to attend classes who might otherwise have pursued other study or work options, while autonomous institutions received less attention and saw their budgets decline. Those autonomous schools were cost-free like the new universities, but they were also more academically rigorous and were inaccessible to all but the best students.

Just last month, the Venezuelan government made and now considers four factors:

1. academic history (50%);
2. socio-economic background (30%);
3. territoriality (15%);
4. social participation (5%).

Many still worry that students with top grades will not receive spots at their chosen universities, but the government claims exceptional students can be identified and given special consideration.

Outbound mobility

With tertiary education plagued by quality issues, young Venezuelans are increasingly looking overseas. UNESCO puts the number of Venezuelan students abroad at nearly 12,000 in 2012, and the top ten destinations are summarised below.

• United States – 5,893;
• Spain – 1,980;
• France – 572;
• Canada – 474;
• Cuba – 404;
• Italy – 360;
• Germany – 340;
• Australia – 331;
• United Kingdom – 284;
• Ecuador – 190.

IIE’s Open Doors report, which has slightly more detailed data, puts the number of Venezuelan students in the US at 7,022 for 2013/14, and 6,158 for 2012/13. That represents an increase of 14% in one year, and that followed a previous 14% jump from 2010/11 to 2011/12. With the exception of a small drop from 2011/12 to 2012/13, the trend in mobility to the US has been trending steeply upward since 2008.

Venezuelan students in the US, 2001–2014. Source: IIE

But perhaps the most up-to-date government figures come from Venezuela’s public ombudsman Tarek William Saab, who in April 2015 put the number of Venezuelan students abroad at . If accurate, this would represent the sharpest rise of leavers to date – about 50% more than UNESCO’s 2012 figures, and an important indication of the strong demand for study abroad among Venezuelan students and families.

As of 2013, more than 60% of Venezuelan students in the US on study visas were undergraduates, with business and engineering the two most popular fields, accounting for 25.6% and 15.5% of the total respectively. About 10% of students were enrolled in intensive English-language programmes.

Also as of 2013, Venezuela ranked fourth in Latin America for sending to the US – behind Mexico, Brazil, and Colombia. However, this ranking may well have changed in the last two years due to the introduction of strict controls on currency exchange, among other factors.

Currency controls

Though outbound mobility is up sharply, Venezuelan students abroad have been hampered for almost a year by tighter currency exchange rules that restrict the flow of funds outside the country. Transferring money from Venezuela happens through the Centro Nacional de Comercio Exterior (CENCOEX, formerly the Commission for the Administration of Currency Exchange [ComisiĂłn de AdministraciĂłn de Divisas], or CADIVI) and is difficult and expensive due to such capital flight controls.

“The agency makes hard currency available to importers at several rates, with the best rate, CENCOEX, available to importers of food and medicine,” explains an entry on Wikipedia. “A double rate, Complementary System of Foreign Exchange Administration (Sistema Complementario de AdministraciĂłn de Divisas [SICAD I]), twice the official exchange rate but still favourable, goes to importers of culturally important items such as scotch, popular in Venezuela, and Barbie dolls, again, popular with certain demographics. A third rate, Alternative Foreign Exchange System (Sistema Cambiario Alternativo de Divisas [SICAD II]), quite unfavorable at 50 times the official exchange rate, is offered to other importers.”

In short, students or families who wish to exchange Venezuelan Bolivars for foreign currency at any sort of reasonable exchange rate must apply to CENCOEX to access its reserves of foreign funds. The agency therefore plays a critical role in enabling (or not) the study abroad plans of Venezuelan students. According to agents in the market, those with access to funds held outside of the country are less affected and able to carry through with their programmes abroad. 

“CENCOEX was created to ‘come clean’ from the allegedly corrupted CADIVI regarding imports and exports as well as exchange students, when in fact it is currently the exact same organism functioning at a more severe scarcity level,” adds Luis Arria of the Venezuelan education agency Evospash.

CENCOEX policies for students abroad offer favourable exchange rates for the currencies of the students’ host countries as long as students are studying one of 178 subjects prioritised by the government. According to government officials, the new restrictions on exchanges came about in response to student abuse of the system.

Public ombudsman Saab told University World News that up to 60% of students who previously received the government exchange rate were not studying required subjects, and also noted that many of the group had no intention of returning to Venezuela. The resulting clampdown affected thousands of overseas students, and largely accounted for the 2% dip in 2012/13 enrolments seen in the Open Doors data above.

“Post-grad programmes must comply with [government-approved priorities for study abroad],” adds Mr Arria. “Those that are not on the list are banned and a 100% chance of rejection [by CENCOEX] is imminent. Mostly engineering, renewable energy, travel, and tourism are the ones accepted. MBAs or any business administration careers are not on the list.”

Working with CENCOEX can be a daunting task. Delays are common and rules change often. International educators partnered with Venezuelan students would do well to familiarise themselves with the organisation’s procedures, but, on a bright note, practical advice about how to successfully engage with CENCOEX is available online.

For the moment, the tighter controls this year have eroded the ability of some students and families to finance studies abroad. Local education agents report there is still strong demand in Venezuela for longer-term programmes, including those at the post-graduate level.

Students bound for such programmes reportedly have better luck in accessing foreign currency via CENCOEX, whereas shorter-term language studies have been more sharply affected by the currency controls with the vast majority of aspiring language students currently denied access to exchange funds by CENCOEX.

For another insider perspective on the complex Venezuelan market, readers can turn to Jose Ramon Camejo Silva of Education Around the World. șÚÁÏčÙÍű Monitor interviewed Mr Silva in 2012, and he offered valuable advice for foreign partners planning to work with Venezuelan students.

The month to watch

Though Venezuela is among the top ten countries globally in terms of spending on education as a percentage of GDP, falling oil prices, capital flight outside the country, and bond market chaos have drained the country of needed revenue. Some economists have predicted a debt default. Meanwhile, an interventionist US foreign policy has millions of dollars going to Venezuelan opposition groups each year – as such, it both reflects and aggravates the currently strained relations between the two countries.

In the face of all this, President Maduro has given in to some budget cuts, but education is an untouchable line item. At a he declared, “Oil is [US]$48 (down from $100) but I will not only maintain education but will keep improving [it].”

Unemployment, crime, and shortages of basic materials have taken a toll on the President’s popularity, but opposition politicians have low ratings as well due to their perceived connections to puntofijismo – the multi-decade period of iron rule by the wealthy that was broken by the political ascension of Hugo ChĂĄvez.

If President Maduro’s opposition win, they will be able to force a recall election, which could mean change to Venezuela’s education sector as soon as 2016. If they lose, the next presidential contest is in 2019.

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These are some of the findings of the Pew Research Center’s . The study updates a similar effort from 2013, which highlighted the strong levels of web usage and engagement for social and mobile users. The findings for the 2014 edition are drawn from in-person interviews with 36,619 people across 32 emerging and developing countries conducted from March 17 to June 5, 2014. The results for those 32 countries – including significant education markets such as China, India, Nigeria, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Brazil, and Mexico – have been benchmarked against a related Pew Center telephone survey of 1,002 Americans, also conducted in 2014.

The study’s high-level findings provide a compact overview of Internet access in developing and emerging economies, along with important insights as to how people access and use the Internet in each country.

For example, the following graphic illustrates the percentage of the population in each country who access the Internet at least occasionally or own a smartphone (as smartphone users, practically speaking, are also Internet users).

Those who access the Internet at least occasionally or own a smartphone within the 32 countries in the 2014 Global Attitudes study. Source: Pew Research Center

Do some of those numbers look lower than you would expect? If so, it is probably because you spend a lot of time talking to students. The Pew study points out that Internet usage is highly concentrated within younger demographics in developing and emerging economies, particularly among those with a high school education or higher and particularly among those who can speak or read English.

The following table summarises the variances in Internet usage for these factors, and, as you will see, they are quite striking in some cases. (Please note that some table cells are left empty for some countries due to insufficient sample size for the characteristic in question.)

Internet usage by age, education, and English ability among the 32 countries in the 2014 Global Attitudes study. Source: Pew Research Center

These findings make intuitive sense in that the 18-to-34-year-old demographic came of age during a period of dramatic technological change, including the emergence of the Internet and the widespread adoption of mobile devices. In addition to these factors, and, as was the case in last year’s global survey, the 2014 study also finds a close correlation between Internet usage and income. Simply put, “Richer countries in terms of gross domestic product per capita have more Internet users among the adult population compared with poorer nations.”

Also echoing last year’s study, Pew finds that Internet users in developing and emerging economies are highly engaged socially. Staying in touch with friends and family and engagement with social media remain the leading ways in which they like to use the Internet.

This point reinforces an important aspect of communicating with secondary school and college-age Internet users: they are highly engaged socially and those social channels in turn are an important source of information and product or service recommendations. A recent post from NewBrand Analytics makes the point concisely:

“A study of millennials [that is, those born between 1980 and 2000] states that 95% of respondents say friends are their most credible source for information when making a purchase. Additionally, 98% are more likely to engage with posts by friends about a brand versus a post by the brand itself. Therefore, an effective method to get millennials loyal to your brand is to get other millennials talking online.”

Following on from the importance of this highly socialised exchange, Pew also finds that searching for more practical news and information is the next major category of Internet usage in developing and emerging economies. “For Internet users in emerging and developing nations, social relationships are a fundamental aspect of their interaction with the virtual world,” says the study. “Getting various types of information, such as political news, health information and government services, is the next tier of Internet use.”

What’s in your pocket?

The Pew report also has some important observations in terms of how users in developing and emerging economies access the Internet. It tracks usage and ownership of desktop computers from country to country but also smartphone and cell phone penetration as well.

The report notes, “Overall, a median of 38% across the 32 nations surveyed say they have a working computer in their household. In 11 countries, half or more own computers, including 78% in Russia – comparable to the 80% of Americans who say they have a computer in their household. Computer ownership is relatively high in a number of Latin American nations. Majorities in Chile (72%), Venezuela (61%), Argentina (58%) and Brazil (55%) have computers in their homes. Computer ownership rates are lowest in sub-Saharan African nations.”

The extent to which users in each country have reliable access to computers outside the home (e.g., at school or at work) is less clear. Leaving this aspect aside for a moment, we can see that computer ownership broadly correlates to national income levels and explains at least part of the relationship between Internet usage and income that we noted earlier.

Along that same line, cell phone ownership is much more common in the emerging and developing countries in the Pew survey. A median of 84% (across all 32 countries) own a cell phone of some kind. This compares to the US benchmark of 90% for cell phone ownership, and the survey finds a marked difference still between the penetration of more basic cell phones as opposed to smartphones. “Smartphones – and the mobile access to the Internet that they make possible in some locations – are not nearly as common as conventional cell phones. A median of only 24% say they own a cell phone that can access the Internet and applications.”

Percentage of 2014 Global Attitude respondents who own a smartphone or cell phone. Source: Pew Research Center

However, phone ownership again underscores the relationship between age and Internet usage. As with the broader correlation the study observes between these factors, smartphone ownership is also highly concentrated among younger users. “Young people (those under 35) are significantly more likely than their older counterparts to own an iPhone, BlackBerry, Android or other Internet-capable mobile phone,” says Pew.

Overall, the study makes an important point that broader statistics of Internet penetration and usage in developing and emerging economies have to be interpreted via some important filters, including age, education, English ability, and income. In an international education context, the high school and college-age prospects that educators and agents are mainly trying to reach are among the heaviest users of web and mobile technologies. In this sense, the findings of the 2014 Pew study will only reinforce the importance of the Internet, and the social and mobile web in particular, as a key channel for reaching and engaging prospective students.

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The project is proceeding against a backdrop of growing higher education participation across the region, as well as indicators of a strengthening interest in study abroad. And now a recently concluded ALFA PUENTES survey – “Transformations in Latin America Higher Education” (TRESAL) – reinforces that there is indeed a growing emphasis on internationalisation among higher education institutions in Latin America.

The TRESAL survey was remarkably comprehensive and ambitious in its scope, and was actually composed of three parallel surveys: the first targeted to university leaders, the second to faculty, and the third to students. The findings are wide-ranging and are fully documented in both an executive summary (in English) as well as a complete survey report (Spanish only).

TRESAL paints a picture of a young system, with 80% of responding Latin American institutions established after 1950, and a quarter of those opening their doors between 2000 and 2010.  While more than half of respondents were private institutions, much of the higher education enrolment in the region remains concentrated in public institutions.

The survey also reflects that educators and institutions in the region are anticipating change on a number of fronts in the next five years, including the impact of shifting demographics, a growing emphasis on internationalisation, pressures to enhance research capacity, and the need for greater links between institutions and business.

We narrowed in on the findings with respect to mobility and internationalisation, such as:

“The preferred destinations for Latin American students are the United States of America, Canada and Europe, in that order,” says the TRESAL executive summary.

“For some sub-regions, Europe is the first option and their own sub-region is also seen as a priority (in Mercosur for example). These results are an example of the potential for growth in mobility and cooperation within the Latin American region. The modest rise in interest in Asia and Australia should also be noted. In students’ responses, interest in studying abroad in other regions is as follows: 12% in Australia and New Zealand and 11% in Asia, in comparison to 18% in the US and Canada and 17% in Europe.”

The TRESAL survey flags an important regional mobility trend that we have also commented on in the past: Latin students tend to pursue study abroad opportunities outside their home region to a greater extent than do students from, for example, Asia or Europe. A related commentary from the European University Association notes, “There is relatively little interest in mobility within the Latin American region, despite the small but increasing number of internal mobility programmes.”

As the earlier quote reflects, TRESAL results were tabulated for Latin America as a whole, and then also for a series of sub-regions – the Andean Community, Mercosur, Central America, and Mexico – as a way to more precisely track variations in response across Latin America.

These sub-regional variations were apparent in a number of TRESAL findings, including the survey responses with respect to inbound student mobility. On the whole, 42% of university leaders expected the number of inbound students hosted by their institutions to increase in the next several years. When broken down by sub-region, the responses reflect more varied expectations regarding attractiveness to foreign students and/or readiness to host larger numbers of inbound students; 67% of university leaders in the Andean Community expect to host larger numbers of inbound students in the years ahead, as compared to 51% in the Mercosur, 36% in Central America, and 28% in Mexico.

Of particular note for recruiters is the TRESAL finding that only one third of university leaders said there is information for study abroad available at their institution. Similarly, only two in five student-respondents to the survey said that they had received information on study abroad.

Leaving aside the fact that students have increased access to study abroad information from agents, peers, and online sources, this still suggests an important opportunity to reach prospective Latin American students through their home institutions.

Related to this is the finding that nearly half of university leaders in Latin America consider student mobility an essential aspect of internationalisation. One in five consider study abroad to be “a crucial factor for success in the labour market.”

A number of Latin markets have experienced dramatic growth in higher education participation rates in recent years, and are projecting similar, significant growth in the years ahead. When paired with a growing emphasis on internationalisation among higher education institutions in the region, this again suggests strengthening opportunities for international recruitment across the region.

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