A new whitepaper from outlines characteristics of the Mexican market and best practices for engaging with students and parents.

Political and economic context

Mexico’s economy is forecast to grow by just under 2% in 2026, which, while modest, would be a better rate than in 2025. However, like the vast majority of countries, Mexico is vulnerable to the current US government’s tariff measures, so the forecast may change more than it normally would over the course of the year.

A couple of trade developments will serve as stabilising elements amid this volatility. These include:

• The “nearshoring” phenomenon, which describes foreign and multinational companies – often from Asia – setting up shop in Mexico to be closer to North American markets. Nearshoring has created more employment in northern regions closer to the US, and it has also revealed pronounced skills gaps in niche occupations.

• A strengthening relationship with Canada, as both Mexico and Canada seek to reduce their reliance on the US market. A high-level Mexico-Canada “action plan” is expected in late 2026, and Mexico’s Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard says it will focus on “joint initiatives related to minerals, investment in ports, infrastructure and supply chain security.”

Both of these trends have accentuated skills gaps that Mexico needs to address for economic expansion. A two-million-position shortfall of engineers and technicians is limiting growth in sectors such as AI, manufacturing, and technology.

Nearshoring activity is mostly concentrated in northern regions such as Nuevo León, Jalisco, Coahuila, Chihuahua, Querétaro, Aguascalientes, and Baja California. While some of these areas pose security risks because of cartel activity, they are also home to many students who will be particularly interested in niche fields of study related to the skills needed by the industries around them.

High demand for study abroad

While there is higher education capacity in Mexico, very few Mexican universities place in the top tiers of the QS World University Rankings, and there isn’t a great range of niche programmes that serve new labour force opportunities. These opportunities can be found in a growing list of sectors, including:

• Automotive
• Aerospace
• Electronics and medical devices
• Food and beverage sector
• Renewable energy
• Oil and gas
• Tourism

The SME sector (Small and Medium-sized Enterprises) generates about 70% of jobs in the country, so business-related fields of study are also popular.

A busier recruitment environment

Marcela Tintinago, Account Manager at EdCo LATAM Consulting, says that she is seeing more and more top-ranked universities from the UK, Ireland, Canada, the US, Europe, and Australia prioritising Mexico as a student market: “It’s become a very competitive market, particularly as more Mexican students look to study in destinations beyond the US.”

Several destinations have posted growth from Mexico lately:

• Spain: There are almost 10,000 Mexican students in Spain, and this number is on the rise.

• United Kingdom: Almost 1,800 Mexican students were enrolled at UK universities in 2024/25, up +8% over 2023/24, a much stronger pace of growth than in 2023/24 (+1%).

• Ireland: In 2024/25, the small Mexican representation in Irish universities (360) was up +27% y-o-y in 2024/25, reflecting demand in Mexico for degree-level studies abroad and the growing popularity of Ireland for higher education. Mexico is among the top 10 fastest growing source markets for Irish universities. Ms Tintinago adds: “Mexican students are particularly interested in Ireland because it is more affordable than other major study destinations, has many companies promising good job prospects, and offers a unique cultural experience.”

By contrast:

• United States: Mexican higher education enrolments grew by only +1% 2024/25 according to IIE Open Doors data, compared to the +6.5% increase the previous year.

• Canada: There were about 11,400 study permit-holding Mexicans in Canada in 2024/25, down -26% over the previous year.

• Australia: About 3,900 Mexicans studied at all levels in 2025, stable from 2024. Only 900 Mexicans are enrolled in Australian universities, compared to about 2,400 in vocational education (VET) and 1,300 in English-language studies (ELICOS). The EdCo LATAM report notes that it is interesting that the number of Brazilian and Colombian students in Australia is significantly higher than that of Mexicans (26,000 and 20,000, respectively). The report suggests: “The presence of established Latin American student cohorts in Australia would be a major drawing card for prospective Mexican students and should be leveraged in marketing campaigns to this market, alongside other attractions such as Australia’s high-quality institutions.”

However, there is a high degree of price-sensitivity in Mexico regarding study abroad. VET and ELICOS enrolments are trending down given recent policy developments in Australia that make it far more expensive to apply to study there.

Study abroad decision factors

Affordability: EdCo LATAM’s Latin America Account Manager Scarlet Ramirez says that Mexicans try to steer clear of debt and are on the lookout for scholarship opportunities:

“Taking out a loan in Mexico is very rare, we tend to save up or obtain funding for our studies. Studying abroad is a huge investment for Mexican students, and they want to ensure they are getting the best value for money possible.”

Return on investment: There is also a wealthier market segment and the higher a family’s socio-economic status, the more they will look at a foreign university’s ranking.

Teachers: EdCo LATAM observes that Mexican high-school students are used to close relationships with their teachers:

“In Mexico, your teacher often becomes more than an educator, they become our mentors and someone we can rely on beyond the classroom. Mexicans are very warm people and always looking to create strong relationships, so when we go abroad, we really value it when lecturers are approachable and supportive.”

Family: The families of students want to be closely involved in discussions with institutional representatives, whether these are central staff, in-country representatives, or agents. Parents’ opinions are highly valued, and parents ideally want to see their children study at a highly ranked university, “especially when they are contributing financially.” Post-graduate work opportunities are similarly important.

Safety and community: Safety is naturally prioritised by parents. Knowing there are other Latin American students on campus goes a long way – and this should be communicated across all marketing channels. Examples of Latin American graduates achieving success after their studies are highly effective as well, especially using audio-visual.

All these motivating factors for study abroad from Mexico have implications for recruiters:

• Social media is important for awareness. The report says, “Instagram and TikTok are the go-to platforms for marketing undergraduate courses to Mexican prospects, while Facebook and LinkedIn are best suited for promoting postgraduate opportunities.”

• However, a committed in-person effort is required, including one-to-one meetings with parents and students. Account Manager Julián Nivia says: “This approach is much more effective than trying to market your institution in a crowded room with hundreds of other institutions.” Tailored recruitment facilitates “the effective representation of your university’s value proposition in the region.”

• Communication is everything – from quality and personalisation to speed. Universities should endeavour to make students feel special, and timely follow-ups are essential (no more than 2–3 days).

The report notes: “Pre-arrival communications should include how Mexican students will be supported on arrival, details about orientation week, available mentors, details about the international office and support systems and societies that may be of interest. Mexican students really appreciate it when universities have someone from the international office they can rely on.”

For additional background, please see:

• “International student recruitment in Mexico: Demand for language study still leading the way“

The post Mexico: A personalised, supportive approach is the key to success in this growing study abroad market appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

Population: 130.7 million

Youth population: 25% of Mexicans are aged 15-29, but the population is ageing

Youth unemployment rate: 6.1% (2023 estimate)

GDP: US$1.8 trillion (2023)

Main economic sectors: Food and beverages, tobacco, chemicals, iron and steel, petroleum, mining, textiles, clothing, motor vehicles, consumer durables, tourism.

Geography: Mexico is part of North America, south of the US.

Official language: Spanish

Language of instruction: Spanish, but English as a medium of instruction is

Tertiary enrolment rate: 46%, compared to a world average of 55%

Literacy rate: 95%

English-language proficiency: Low, according to the (87th out of 116 countries ranked)

Religion: Christian and predominantly Roman Catholic

Main student cities: Mexico City, Puebla, Guadalajara, Monterrey, and another 11 cities have populations exceeding 1 million.

Economy: The upper-middle-income-classed economy grew by 1.6% in 2024 – a slowdown from the previous two years. The new Trump administration’s policy direction may cause significant economic turmoil in Mexico this year, not least because of the US President’s tariff threats and intent to revise North American trade policies.

The most recent UNESCO data (2022) counts 36,922 Mexican students abroad in higher education, and this number has been rising in tandem with the growing number of college-aged Mexicans (4 million today compared with under 2 million in 2000).

That said, more than 4 in 10 (45%) Mexican youth aged 15–24 are not enrolled in education, hampering economic development in the country. This statistic reflects incredibly unequal access to education in Mexico depending on region and class. Only 24% of the Mexican population has a higher education degree, compared with the OECD average of 44%.

Mexicans tend to choose the US, Spain, Germany, Canada, France, Australia, and the UK for higher education studies. Though the number of students leaving Mexico for higher education is growing, the number going abroad for English-language training is much larger. Mexican ELT enrolments in foreign institutions grew by 35% between 2016 and 2020, and in 2023, Mexico became one of the top 10 ELT markets in the world according to research firm BONARD.

Top destinations for Mexican students

The number of Mexican enrolments in top destinations has not been growing as robustly as enrolments from many other top source countries. Opportunities are there, however, for institutions that can accommodate Mexicans’ price sensitivity and for alternative destinations with relatively more open student visa settings.

Here is a summary of growth trends and declines in major destinations for Mexican students:

Canada: 16,980 Mexicans in study-permit-required programmes of over 6 months in 2023 (+14%) and an additional 14,000 in short-term language programmes (that do not require a study permit). Mexico is the largest market for Canada’s French-language programmes, and year-over-year growth from Mexico for these programmes was 59% in 2023, higher than the 13% growth recorded by English-language providers. The Canadian government says, “There are over 300 MOUs between Canadian and Mexican higher education institutions as well as a number of MOUs between Canadian education associations and Mexican government bodies.”

United States: 15,400 in higher education in 2023 (+7%), and 1,750 in Intensive English Programs (IEPs), down 16%. The number of Mexican students in undergraduate programmes in the US is almost double the number in graduate programmes.

Spain: 5,540 in 2022/23 in higher education, up 13%.

Australia: 3,620 Mexicans in 2024, which is stable from 2023. While Brazil and Colombia are in the top 10 markets for Australia’s English-language teaching sector (ELICOS), Mexico is not.

Germany: 3,600 in 2023, and the German government “there are almost 500 cooperation agreements between German and Mexican universities.”

France: France is the fifth most popular destination for Mexican students, according to the government (without citing enrolment figures). An official statement says, “progress is being made in French-language teaching based on agreements signed with 12 Mexican states via the work of the French Institute of Latin America (IFAL) based in Mexico City, as well as a network of 32 Alliances Françaises.”

United Kingdom: There were about 1,500 Mexicans in UK higher education in 2022 (-18% from 2019). Mexico is not a top 10 market for UK ELT. The UK government is exploring transnational education opportunities in Mexico, noting that the cost of studying in the UK is a major barrier for Mexican students. Though there may not be many Mexican students in the UK, academic collaboration is robust: Universities UK notes that “the UK is Mexico’s fourth most frequent collaborator globally and third in Europe (after Spain and France), with 1,528 co-authored publications by Mexico and the UK (with 10 or fewer co-authors) between 2015 and 2017. The most significant research areas are physics and astronomy, medicine, agricultural and biological science, earth and planetary sciences, biochemistry, genetics and molecular biology and engineering.”

Interest is strong, but following through on study abroad plans may be weaker

A global Flywire study found that , “Mexico has the second highest percentage (vs. Peru at 73%) of students planning to study internationally (57%).” The global average was 42%. However, only 13% of those surveyed were actually studying abroad compared to a global average of 27%. Cost is the major barrier for Mexican students:

“Students from Mexico cite more sensitivity about their education payments than most other countries. 90% say they need help affording their education expenses, and 79% say the process of making tuition payments has been a significant stressor for them and their families.”

Alternative study destinations may grow more popular

Mexican students now face significant challenges in studying abroad in traditional destinations. Canada has imposed caps on international student numbers, the Trump administration is casting a suspicious eye on both Mexico and Canada, and the UK is expensive. Spain is one of the only destinations experiencing significant growth in Mexican enrolments (+13% in 2022/23).

UK educators are exploring transnational education opportunities in Mexico given the cost barrier, but even then, tuition fees may be an issue given the Mexican government’s commitment to free higher education for its citizens.

Despite challenges in 2025, Mexico remains an important source market for foreign English-language providers. BONARD notes that in 2023, “Mexico achieved a 45% y-o-y growth and reached a 135% recovery rate, becoming the seventh biggest market globally (up from twelfth in 2019).”

BONARD anticipates that because it will be harder for many language students (and not just Mexicans) to obtain visas for traditional destinations, demand will increase for Ireland, Malta, New Zealand, and South Africa. They add: “Moreover, a stronger language education provision in alternative destinations such as Dubai and intra-regional destinations – particularly within the Asia-Pacific region – is increasing competition and diverting students from traditional markets.”

For additional background, please see:

• “Outbound mobility trends for key Latin markets: Brazil, Colombia, Mexico”

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But Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) is now closing the SDS and NSE streams and will require all international students to apply though the regular study permit process, as per :

“Canada’s goal is to strengthen programme integrity, address student vulnerability, and give all students equal and fair access to the application process, as well as a positive academic experience. To meet this commitment, the Student Direct Stream (SDS) and Nigeria Student Express (NSE) initiatives have ended as of 2:00 pm ET [8 November 2024].”

Streams were first developed through sector/government collaboration

Andrew Champagne, director of programmes and partnerships at Colleges and Institutes Canada (CICan), said: “The Student Direct Stream was the result of many years of innovative collaboration between Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) and Colleges and Institutes Canada (CICan). Earlier versions of the programme enhanced information sharing and laid the foundation for the creation of the DLI compliance reporting portal. The Student GIC, initially developed in partnership with Scotiabank, ensured that students had access to needed funds to support themselves in Canada and other requirements, like language test results and police certificates, inspired confidence and contributed to higher approval rates and reduced processing times. Though primarily utilised by applicants from India, SDS reduced student vulnerability and contributed to a more predictable process for students and institutions. CICan remains committed to working with IRCC and member institutions on innovative policy solutions with a focus on programme integrity and continues to stress the need for better information sharing between IRCC and DLIs across Canada.”

Who will be affected?

Effective immediately, the closure of SDS and NSE means that students from the following countries – who previously could count on processing times of (often) less than 20 days if they met requirements for proof of funds, medical exams, and language proficiency – may now face longer processing times.

• Antigua and Barbuda
• Brazil
• China
• Colombia
• Costa Rica
• India
• Morocco
• Nigeria
• Pakistan
• Peru
• Philippines
• Senegal
• St. Vincent and the Grenadines
• Vietnam
• Trinidad and Tobago

reports: “As of November 8th, average processing times for applications submitted from India is now eight weeks.”

No warning, much confusion

Canadian Bureau for International Education President and CEO Larissa Bezo said, “CBIE like other stakeholders, was taken by surprise with this announcement. The Student Direct Stream and Nigeria Student Express were both important mechanisms for facilitating study permit processing from student recruitment markets of key interest to Canadian institutions. This change represents yet another blow to the sector which is already reeling from so many significant policy changes over the course of the past year. This change will further signify to prospective students in the affected countries, that Canada is closing its doors.”

“The Canadian government has its reasons for making so many policy changes so quickly,” added Andrew Ness, dean of international education at Humber College. “What concerns me most is the myriad ways in which this has impacted our students and representatives around the world. This is a great example – an announced change without any warning or preparation, despite the immigration department having had the chance to tell the national organisation responsible for international education over the five days before the announcement during the [annual CBIE conference]. There were multiple meetings with IRCC officials during the conference and we were told that, ‘no major changes were expected.’ Then literally days later, this happened. It’s unfair to our students, to our representatives, and to the image of Canada as a thoughtful, compassionate, considerate destination for studies.”

Illume Student Advisory Services CEO Mike Henniger said: “With blow after blow to Canada’s education brand, it is becoming tough to untangle one issue from another. The closing of SDS has left a lot of students mid-application and now scrambling to adjust. Our agent partners are telling us that they are concerned about how much more time and effort applications will require going forward. Personally, I have been frustrated by the disparity between regions like South Asia and Africa, especially with timelines and visa denials. In Africa, where we have 25 staff members supporting our clients, we’re dealing with endless deferrals, visa denials for great candidates, and a chaotic admissions process overall. Many institutions have shifted their focus towards students who seem ‘easier’ to recruit, often at the cost of diversity. It is my hope that the cancellation of SDS will mean a quicker, more transparent process that treats all students equally in their goal of studying in Canada.”

Reaction in India

The closure of SDS has already been widely covered in India, where immigration lawyer Shamsher Singh Sandhu said to the :

“As Canada has terminated the Student Direct Stream (SDS) with immediate effect it will have adverse impact on the students going from India to Canada, especially from Punjab. Due to this [change], 90 per cent of prospective students…will be affected.’’

A prospective Indian student planning to study in Canada said to India’s :

“I was trying to go to Canada, but the situation is that Canada has stopped the [SDS route]. That was not right because many [Indians] want to go abroad for studies and the politics that is being used in this is also wrong. It’s not right to stop visas midway. There are so many opportunities and dream jobs we will miss out on.”

The end of the SDS and NSE streams is the latest example of the Canadian government’s tightening of its immigration system and greater scrutiny of Canada’s international education sector.

For additional background, please see:

• “Financial impact of new immigration settings in Canada already being measured in the billions“
• “Canada: Sector survey says collaboration between governments and institutions essential to avoid “long-term damage to the sector”
• “Canada announces updates for foreign enrolment cap and post-study work visa“

The post Canada ends expedited study permit processing for international students appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

In all three countries, massive growth in the numbers of international students coincides with growing public concern over spiralling rental and housing prices and underfunded public infrastructure. Populations are expanding quickly, driven largely by new immigrants. And 2023 has been marked by too many cases of fraud on the part of unethical agents and institutions and reports of international students not receiving the kind of study experience they had been promised.

Expansive policies launched to counter shocking losses of international student revenues during the pandemic are now giving way to policies that could make it more difficult for some students to secure a study permit or stay on to work or immigrate.

Today, we look at the rapid shift in approach to international education that has occurred in Australia, Canada, and the UK between 2020 and 2023.

The disruption of the pandemic

The pandemic was a shock to economies everywhere, not least because the loss of international students equated to lost billions in revenue across multiple sectors. The value of international education became crystal clear to any who had doubted it.

The Canadian government acted quickly to mitigate the effects of travel restrictions and to keep the Canada education brand strong in overseas markets. It opened the border sooner to international students than was the case in other destinations. International students remained eligible for a post-study work permit even if they were studying 100% online from their home countries. Caps were lifted on the number of hours international students could work off campus. And a new immigration stream allowed more students to apply for permanent residency.

The UK government, meanwhile, opened a new immigration stream – the Student Route and Child Student Route – earlier than planned to counter the trend of international students deferring their study plans. It then opened its much-anticipated “Graduate Route” in 2021, providing international students with two-three years of post-study work rights. It allowed students studying by distance/blended learning to remain eligible for that route if they completed one term’s face-to-face learning in the UK.

Not coincidentally, Canada and the UK expanded their international enrolment during the years of the pandemic. Canada’s foreign enrolment is now 27% higher than in 2019 (808,000), while the number of international students in UK universities was 22% higher in 2021/22 (679,970) than in 2019/20.

By 2022, Australia had lost market share to Canada and the UK, but it quickly rolled out a series of policies to earn it back, including:

• A temporary removal of caps on working hours;
• Refunds on visa application fees;
• The extension – by years in some cases – of post-study work rights for students in select degrees.

By mid-2023, international student numbers in Australia had jumped to 645,516 – exceeding the pre-pandemic total.

Questions about the pace of growth

It’s clear that governmental policies played an important role in the ability of Canada, the UK, and later, Australia, to remain top study destinations despite the interruption of COVID-19. They worked quickly and led to a surge of international students in each destination.

This is good news for institutions that responsibly host international students, with a range of supports to facilitate their success. It is good news for communities with capacity to absorb more international students, for example through housing and healthcare. It is good news for businesses and sectors that profit from students’ spending while they are in Canada, and for organisations and companies that gain access to a larger pool of talented international student graduates.

But several trends are dulling the excitement around burgeoning international student numbers:

• There is an affordability crisis in all three destinations, with appropriate accommodation out of reach for too many – including some international students;
• There have been much-publicised cases of agents or institutions not acting in the best interests of students;
• Public infrastructure is often not keeping up with an expanding population of newcomers;
• about migration levels is .

In the context of these trends, there has been a distinct move towards greater quality control in the international education sectors in Australia and Canada. Here are some of the policy developments that have occurred in those countries over the second half of 2023.

Australia

• There is now far more regulation of education agents and the vocational training sector (VET).
• Students can no longer hold “concurrent COEs” (Confirmations of Enrolments) that had allowed them to switch from higher education to lower-cost/quality VET providers.
• The amount of savings that international students must have to get a study visa has risen by 17%.
• More scrutiny is being applied to “high-risk cohorts” (of prospective students) that tend to submit a higher volume of fraudulent applications.
• The “Pandemic Event” visa – a renewable 12-month document allowing students to work in any sector of the economy, for more than one employer if desired – will be ended.
• See even more recent updates here.

Canada

• Canadian colleges and universities are now required to confirm every applicant’s letter of acceptance directly with IRCC, a measure aimed at protecting prospective students from letter-of-acceptance fraud.
• A new framework in fall 2024 will reward institutions “recognised” for providing excellent services and outcomes to international students with priority visa processing.
• IRCC is now considering a number of additional policy changes by end of year, including whether or not to extend a temporary policy (currently in effect) that allowed some students to work beyond a 20-hour-per-week cap during their studies.
• See even more recent updates here.

More to come?

The new quality control measures in Australia and Canada are designed to protect the integrity of the system and international students coming into it.

Another announcement in Canada, however, suggests that it could become more difficult for students who do not graduate from Canadian institutions with prioritised skills to obtain a Post-Graduation Work Permit. The government will review the Post-Graduation Work Permit in the coming months and introduce reforms to “better calibrate it to the needs of the labour market.”

And then there are the rumblings in both countries about the notion that stemming the flow of international students – or drawing more revenue from them – will ease cost of living and housing prices. Underlying those rumblings is a belief that the current volume of international students is overwhelming public infrastructure. So far, this perception has not made its way into official policies but has certainly been a feature of national media coverage in recent months.

UK goes a step further

International students in the UK are coping with a dramatic flip-flop in immigration policies directly affecting them.

When the UK restored post-study work rights in 2021, demand among non-EU students increased significantly, and it seemed that the unwelcoming stance of the Theresa May administration was a thing of the past. (Her administration had restricted work rights to six months, leading to a steep decline in key markets including India.)

Since then, non-EU students have been the drivers of enrolment growth – a great relief to universities coping with the effects of Brexit on EU student mobility to the UK. In 2021/22, non-EU enrolments surged by 24% year-over-year, with new, first-year enrolments growing by 32%. By contrast, the total number of EU students fell by 21% – and 53% fewer first-year students came from the EU compared with the previous year.

But the warm welcome of non-EU students has cooled off under Prime Minister Sunak’s administration. Mr Sunak in 2022 and limiting visas to those accepted by top universities. This didn’t happen, but in June 2023, then-Home Secretary Suella Braverman announced that international students, other than research postgraduates, would no longer be permitted to bring their dependants with them to the UK starting in January 2024 (less than a month from the time of this writing).

Already, the number of non-EU students applying to UK universities is falling. But that’s not all. Just this week, new House Secretary James Cleverly :

“Having already banned overseas master’s students from bringing family members to the UK, I have asked the Migration Advisory Committee to review the graduate route to prevent abuse, to protect the integrity and quality of the UK’s outstanding higher education sector.”

There are media reports suggesting that the review could result in post-study work rights being once again restricted to six months.

When announcing the review of the Graduate Route, and in the span of one sentence, Mr Cleverly drew no line between illegal and legal arrivals to the UK, saying that both would be reduced in a drive to lower new migration:

“The British people want to reduce overall immigration numbers – not only by stopping the boats and shutting down illegal routes but by well-managed reduction in legal migration.”

The UK shadow minister for higher education, Matt Western, responded to the threats to the Graduate Route by saying that prospective students will already be aware of the immigration review:

“It’s extraordinary that when you have a successful export that you would want to damage it. Young people, students looking to travel abroad, they are well connected and well read.”

Finally, international students will have to pay more, and be paid more, if they want to work in the UK. The amount needed to get a Skilled Worker visa has been bumped to £38,700 and those applying for a family visa will now need a salary level of £38,700.

A time of risk, and different competitive dynamics

In Australia and Canada, institutions and agents have been made acutely aware of a need to improve quality controls and recruitment over the course of 2023. Institutions’ ability to receive international students will now hinge on staying on the right side of new regulations and performance indicators.

Will US stand to gain?

And what of the US, the other member of the so-called “Big Four” English-speaking destinations? There is definitely a new energy around international student recruitment on the part of the US government, especially when it comes to the Indian market, which is such a key source of students for Australian, Canadian, and UK educators.

A survey from Studyportals, UniBuddy, and the British Council IELTS of 126,000 students across the globe this year found that the US now leads the Big Four in student satisfaction.

Of the findings, Edwin van Rest, co-founder and CEO of Studyportals says: “There is a different political climate in the US now compared to 2021. The State Department has done a lot of work to make international students a priority and the climate is more welcoming.”

For additional background, please see:

• “Global satisfaction survey shows the US leading Australia, Canada, and the UK”
• “Signs point to cooling demand for UK education in non-EU markets”
• “International education a focal point of debate in Australia as the prospect of further regulation looms”
• “Canada to modernise student visa programme with trusted institution framework”

The post Notable government policy shifts affecting international students going into 2024 appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

Canada: Recent improvement but refusal rates are still very high

The years-long trend of low visa approval rates for African students was covered widely in the Canadian media last year and the issue made its way to the House of Commons Standing Committee on Citizenship and Immigration. Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) commissioned an independent inquiry into whether a culture of racism underpinned the low approval rates, and the research determined that systematic racism was indeed a contributing factor.

Coincidentally or not, approval rates for students from four of five of Canada’s top five African source markets – Nigeria, Algeria, Cameroon, and Ghana – increased significantly in 2022.

More generally, indicates that visa approval rates for African students rose by 10% between Q1 and Q3 2022.

• 2021: 30%
• 2022 – Q1: 30%
• 2022 – Q2: 35%
• 2022 – Q3: 40%

Still, a declining trend of visa refusals for African students does not diminish the fact that more than half of African students who apply to study at a college or university in Canada do not obtain a visa. Between 2018 and 30 April 2023, 59% of English-speaking Africans , as were 74% of French-speaking Africans. In 2022 alone, 62% of applicants from English-speaking African countries did not receive a visa, and 66% of applicants were similarly unsuccessful.

Speaking with , Etienne Carbonneau, director of research and support for internationalisation at Université du Québec in Québec City, points out that the high rate of rejection for French-speaking Africans is particularly challenging for Canada’s francophone colleges and universities:

“Presently, some 50% of French speakers worldwide live in African countries; by 2050, the continent will account for 50% of the world’s population growth. The potential for growth [for francophone institutions] is really in French-speaking Africa, but this potential is cut off by the practices of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada.”

The US: High visa refusal rates increased in 2022

Recently, a non-profit group called the Presidents’ Alliance on Higher Education and Immigration collaborated with Shorelight Education to analyse . The mission was to determine whether, between 2015 and 2022, there was a trend of F-1 visas being rejected more frequently for international students from some world regions. The data proved this to be the case.

The inquiry found that in general, F-1 visa rate approvals have been declining since the pandemic, especially for South American students. Applicants from Australia, China, Brazil, South Africa, and some European countries have been spared this trend, but overall, US visa officials rejected one in three (31%) visas in 2022.

There is a geographical pattern to which students are most likely to fail in their attempt to get an F-1 visa. More than half (54%) of African students were denied F-1 visas in 2022, compared with a 9% rejection rate for European students. Asian students fared better than African students, but the 36% visa rejection rate they have encountered is still much higher than the rejection rate for European students.

The key takeaway here is that students from the Global South – i.e., relatively less affluent countries in Africa, Latin America, and the Caribbean – have for many years had a much lower chance of studying in the US than other international student applicants.

Some African regions are particularly affected

The following chart shows that students from certain African regions – especially Western Africa – have less opportunity to obtain an F-1 visa than those from other regions. Southern African students are much less likely to be refused than their peers in other parts of the continent.

Disputing the story of ill-prepared or fraudulent students

The history of student mobility from Africa to the US is shorter, in general, than it is from Europe and Asia (especially China). It is true that inexperience with application requirements is part of the reason some African students are denied visas, and there are African students who apply for F-1 study visas not because they want to study but rather because they are trying to work or emigrate to the US. However, the Presidents’ Alliance/Shorelight report found evidence that many African students “who have met every admissions and financial requirement and are seemingly well-prepared for their high-stakes visa interview, are nonetheless denied visas.”

Higher education officials even told the Presidents’ Alliance/Shorelight that “students from some African nations, for example, are more likely to receive a student visa when applying in a non-African country, such as Australia, to study in the US.”

Implications for universities and colleges – and African students deciding where to apply

Writing for the Chronicle of Higher Education, Karin Fischer points out that high visa refusal rates diminish the ROI of educators’ recruiting investments and could also discourage African students from applying to US institutions:

“Despite that potential [of African student demand], American colleges may think twice about building up their recruitment capacity in Africa if the returns on that investment, in actual enrolled students, are poor…Denials could also discourage African students from applying to the United States.”

The Presidents’ Alliance/Shorelight report concludes that between 2018 and 2022, more than 90,000 “potentially qualified African students applying to study in the US were denied visas.”

Domestic enrolments are declining in the US, and the health of the higher education system – i.e., the ability of all types of quality institution to survive and thrive due to having sufficient tuition revenue – will depend on securing enough international students in the future. The report elaborates on why so much international student mobility will come from Africa, and what is at stake if US educators are unable to compete for African students because of discriminatory visa policies:

“By 2030, just seven years from now, young Africans are expected to constitute 42% of the world’s youth population, and by 2050 are expected to number 1.1 billion ….

According to one projection, sub-Saharan Africa’s tertiary population could swell to 90 million by 2050 with over half of this growth coming from Nigeria …

There seems to be growing interest amongst certain destination countries to reap this “demographic dividend” from Africa. While traditional Anglophone destinations like Canada and the UK also have purported higher visa denial rates for students from Africa, other destinations such as France and China are aggressively recruiting African students, and there also appears to be interest and potential amongst US institutions to do so.”

For additional background, please see:

• “US reports a significant spike in student visa refusals for 2022”
• “Alarm sounded over low approval rates for African students hoping to study in Canada”

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This time, we turn to the Americas: Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico. These countries, and the region in general, account for some of the most remarkable recent increases in students for major destinations – particularly Canada.

We use 2020 UNESCO data on tertiary outbound mobility as our baseline, then factor in more recent data from government sources in leading destinations (Australia, Canada, US) where available to see how mobility is trending in 2022. Please note: Australian, Canadian, and US data includes enrolments in other sectors as well as higher education.

Students from Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico of course go to other countries as well, but our focus here is on destinations enrolling more than 2,000 students from these countries.

Brazil

The most recent UNESCO data (2020) counts 89,150 Brazilian students abroad in higher education. This number is likely higher today if we go on the basis of rapid growth in student numbers in Australia and Canada in particular – some of which will be in the higher education sector. There were 30% more Brazilian students at all levels/types of education in Australia in 2022 than in 2021, and Canada registered the same percentage increase. Numbers have not grown as significantly in the US.

• Argentina: 20,515 in 2020 (UNESCO)
• Australia: 19,055 in 2022 (+30% y-o-y)
• Portugal: 18,080 in 2020 (UNESCO)
• Canada: 14,465 in 2022 (+30%)
• US: 14,895 in 2021/22 (+6%)
• France: 5,435 in 2021/22 (+7%) according to
• Germany: 4,670 (UNESCO)
• Spain: 2,070 (UNESCO)

Many Brazilian students travel abroad for language programmes. In 2022, a BELTA survey found that the top preferences for Brazilian language students were Canada, the United States, UK, Ireland, and Australia. Here’s an astounding bit of information: the Brazilian embassy in Ireland estimates that the number of Brazilian students in Ireland rose from 13,600 in 2016 to 70,000 in 2021.

While language studies are the most popular option for Brazilian students, the survey also found that more Brazilian students are considering university studies abroad. As the second chart (below) indicates, undergraduate programmes moved from 7th place in 2019 to 6th place in 2022 in terms of their popularity, and graduate programmes moved from 9th to 7th.

Colombia

The most recent UNESCO data (2020) counts 34,780 Colombian students abroad in higher education. Colombian student outbound is more degree-oriented than is the case in Brazil or Mexico, though many Colombian students take a language course to prepare them for their degree programme. Given this feature of the Colombian market, we can assume that Australian, Canadian, and the US universities – as well as language programmes – were seeing many more Colombian students in 2022 than in 2021.

Canada has seen dramatic growth from the Colombian market. The number of Colombian students in Canada in 2022 (12,440) was 123% higher than in 2019, when there were only 5,580 students. By contrast, Australian institutions welcomed 7% more Colombian students and US institutions hosted 4% more students over that same time frame (2019–2022).

• Australia: 22,260 in 2022 (+52% y-o-y)
• Spain: 16,460 in 2019/20 according to
• Argentina: 13,480 in 2020 (UNESCO)
• Canada: 12,440 in 2022 (+54%)
• US: 8,075 in 2021/22 (+14%)
• Germany: 3,530 in 2020 (UNESCO)
• Chile: 2,465 in 2020 (UNESCO)
• Ecuador: 2,170 in 2020 (UNESCO)

Mexico

The most recent UNESCO data (2020) counts 56,910 Mexican students abroad in higher education. Since then, more Mexicans have opted to study abroad, and Canada, again, is rising in popularity. Canadian institutions welcomed 30% more Mexicans in 2022 than in 2021, and growth is even more significant compared with 2019. That year, there were only 8,670 Mexican students in Canada – the jump in 2022 to 14,930 represents a 72% increase over the span of three years. By contrast, the US recorded only a 1% increase and the number of Mexican students in Australia fell by 30% over the three years from 2019 to 2022.

• Canada: 14,930 in 2022 (+30% y-o-y)
• US: 14,500 in 2021/22 (+12%)
• Spain: 8,475 in 2019/20 according to the Spanish government
• France: 2,258 in 2020 (UNESCO)
• Australia: 2,160 (+67%)
• Germany: 3,450 in 2020 (UNESCO)

Canada’s big push in Latin America

Clearly, Canadian institutions have intensified their recruiting in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico. But the focus is wider than that – the entire Latin and South American region is sending many more students to Canada than before. For example:

• Peru: 4,025 in 2022 (+114% y-o-y) – up 289% since 2019
• Ecuador: 2,550 in 2022 (+33%) – up 80% since 2019
• Chile: 1,990 in 2022 (+30%) – up 169% since 2019
• Trinidad and Tobago: 1,000 (+32%) – up 34% since 2019
• Argentina: 870 (+30%) – up 117% since 2019
• Bolivia: 370 (+37%) – up 147% since 2019

While some of those numbers may seem small – especially compared with the tens of thousands of students from Canada’s top five markets – they are significant and reflect a surge of popularity for Canada in Latin and South America. Many of the markets more than doubled in size for Canada over the span of just three years. The larger bases of students from each country now could provide the basis for an even stronger growth trajectory – provided the current cohort enjoys their experience in Canada and conveys their satisfaction to peers at home.

Canada’s Student Direct Stream (SDS) – an expedited study permit processing programme for students from certain countries applying to study at a Canadian post-secondary institution – may be part of the reason that Canada is outperforming other top destinations. Of the 14 countries on the SDS list, seven are in Latin/South America or the Caribbean: Antigua and Barbuda, Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Peru, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, and Trinidad and Tobago.

Australia is also increasing its efforts in the region

Australian institutions also seem to have their sights set on South and Latin America in their diversification strategies. A March 2023 indicates significant investment in the region, with key activities centring on events and student fairs, scholarships, and loans. Austrade notes that Colombia “has become a focal point for institutions appointing staff in the region.” In 2022, Austrade launched a Study Australia Experience website aimed at the Latin American market, with content translated into Spanish and Portuguese. The overarching goal of the initiative is to help participating Australian institutions (33 in total) to increase enrolments from Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru and Mexico. The website is part of a that also involves school representatives, social media, agents, and online events.

For additional background, please see:

• “Canada’s foreign enrolment grew by more than 30% in 2022”
• “Immigration and work opportunities key for Mexican students”
• “Brazilian market showing its strength this year”
• “UK removes visitor visa requirement for Colombian travellers”

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One such trend is to be found in Latin America right now.

Many Latin American countries have been sending increasing numbers of students abroad – but many are also home to important and sophisticated institutions that are competing ever more strongly for students from all over the world.

Latin American outbound

Spain is a highly popular country for Latin American students. Spanish institutions have been receiving increasing numbers of Latin American students for several years: Ecuador is the #2 market and Colombia is #4. Both are growing much faster than the remaining countries in Spain’s top 5 list.

In Portugal, where the number of international students in higher education has more than doubled in the past decade, 41% of the nearly 50,000 international students enrolled in Portuguese universities were from Brazil.

Latin America is also an increasingly important region for Canada. Canadian institutions hosted 81% more Mexican students in 2021 than 2020, while Bolivia, Chile, and Peru sent 153%, 133%, and 113% more students, respectively. In the US, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela are in the top 25 markets.

Moving to Australia, the fastest growing source region for students is Latin America. Between 2013–17, the number of Latin American students in Australian institutions , and the vocational and English-language sectors are responsible for a lot of that growth. In 2018, 40,000 Brazilian students were in Australia, making them the fourth-largest international student group. Colombia is also now in Australia’s top 10 source markets.

That’s a lot of outbound. But it’s only part of the story of Latin American internationalisation right now.

International collaborations are a top priority

In 2019, QS conducted a survey that found that fully . The strategies’ goals included:

• Comprehensive internationalisation (49%)
• Expansion and improvement of international mobility (41%)
• Development and promotion of new international partnerships (31%)
• Encouragement of international academic collaboration (26%)
• Improvement of international activities management and processes (17%)

By “comprehensive internationalisation,” respondents meant that they were committed to developing their “programmes, staff, and activities that will ultimately help to attract international talent and develop academic staff to become experts in their field of research.”

The level of development was high enough already in 2019 that Latin American countries were receiving almost as many students (137,000) as they were sending students abroad (195,400), according to UNESCO data.

Institutions responding to the QS survey painted a picture of collaboration and global-mindedness: “Most universities in the region [had] between 50 to 400 official international agreements (65%) and up to 100 unofficial collaborations (54%) with global partner institutions.”

In 2022 – despite the pandemic – Latin American universities have only upped their game. reports that at the 2022 NAFSA conference,

“Dr Rodrigo Cintra, chief international officer of Escola Superior de Propaganda e Marketing (ESPM or Higher School of Advertising and Marketing) in São Paulo, Brazil, put the American and European universities that have dominated international education on notice, saying: ‘We are here to play with you.’”

Underpinning the confidence is the fact that Latin American universities invested heavily in technology and online platforms during the pandemic. Dr Brigitte Baptiste, rector of the Universidad Ean in Bogotá, Colombia, told the NAFSA audience,

“We invested lots of money in our technological capacities. But also, in creating new languages or making virtual interaction less boring, less heavy, much more attractive for learners.”

Encouraging intra-regional mobility has been a heavier priority for Latin American countries of late. In 2019, we reported that 23 Latin American countries had signed on to a new Convention for the Recognition of Studies, Diplomas and Higher Education Diplomas in Latin America and the Caribbean. The agreement was born out of concern that too many Latin American students were going overseas to study rather than staying within the region. The hope attached to the agreement was that encouraging intra-regional mobility would concentrate graduate talent in Latin America rather than see too much of it migrate overseas.

The growing niche Latin American universities are carving out for high-quality online platforms and teaching is complemented by their investment in the kind of programmes the world needs most right now. Focuses include trauma-informed pedagogy, racial literacy and critical thinking (Universidad Veritas in Costa Rica) as well as sustainability, pollution, and climate change. reports that Ms Baptiste “challenged her audience to re-imagine “tourism, agricultural, food and entrepreneurship programmes from a sustainable point of view.”

A greater focus on intra-regional?

It will be interesting and exciting to see if Latin America follows a similar internationalisation trajectory as Asia has over the past few years. As we reported in 2019, Asian students have had more and more reason to stay within their region rather than study in the West. Reasons for that, we noted in 2019, included:

• “A dozen of the world’s 100 top ranked universities are now in Asia – in China, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, and South Korea. (Editor’s update: In the , the number of Asian institutions in the top 100 is now 26, meaning that a quarter of the world’s best-ranked universities are now in Asia.)

• Asia is the world’s fastest-growing regional economy; China, India, Indonesia, Japan, and South Korea are driving the most expansion. Students realise that Asian universities can help them to access industry internships and jobs in the region.

• China, the continent’s powerhouse, invests heavily in its massive, multifaceted soft-power initiative known as One Belt, One Road, which stretches through more than a hundred countries and through South and East Asia. China is creating thousands of scholarships to attract Asian as well as African students. It is increasing higher education capacity and tempting Asian students from within the region to choose China rather than go overseas. (Editor’s update: China has closed its borders for more than two years now as a result of COVID. It will be interesting to see whether, once China opens up, international students return to the country in the same massive volumes as before the pandemic.)

• Students everywhere are gravitating towards programmes with strong and immediate employment outcomes. Asian universities are performing very well in this regard. QS’s 2019 Graduate Employability Rankings include four Asian universities – Tsinghua, Peking, Hong Kong and Tokyo – among the top 20 institutions. QS notes that “Asian universities are among the world’s best at enhancing their alumni’s job market prospects.” (Editor’s update: In QS’s , 23 Asian institutions were in the top 100).

• More than half a dozen Asian countries have national strategies aimed at making them major destinations, with several setting international student targets. China is now the world’s fourth most popular study destination after the US, Australia, and Canada. (Editor’s update: This is no longer the case given that no international students have been able to enter China for more than two years. Again, it will be interesting to see what happens when China lifts its travel restrictions).”

As it stands, six Latin American universities are in the 2022 QS World University Rankings.

For additional background, please see:

• “New scheme aims to boost student mobility within Latin America”
• “Closer to home: Intra-regional mobility in Asia“
• “���Ϲ��� Exchange podcast: Latin America market update: agent and educator reaction to COVID-19”

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The academic year in Australia and New Zealand was immediately disrupted in the first quarter of 2020. And, as we moved into the second quarter of the year, institutions and schools throughout the northern hemisphere suspended in-person instruction and pivoted to online delivery.

One of the pressing questions at that point was how severely language travel programmes would be affected over the peak summer season. The answer is now all too clear with some destinations projecting enrolment declines of 80% or more for 2020.

It seems clear now as well that the recovery from the COVID-19 crisis will be measured in years. Along with language travel numbers, the baseline for that recovery will depend on actual higher education enrolments through the balance of 2020. The work of gathering that data is already well underway, and sufficiently so that we can consider a couple of early indicators here.

US community colleges under pressure

The American Council of Education (ACE) is conducting a series of pulse surveys, and has published from the May, June, and July survey cycles.

The surveys go out to college and university presidents throughout the United States, and there are some interesting patterns to be observed in the thinking of institutional leaders over the three reporting months available to this point.

As the following charts illustrate, the expectations of college and university leaders with respect to fall enrolment became somewhat more optimistic from May through July. More than half still expected that fall enrolment would decrease as of July, but that compares to the 67% that expected an enrolment drop as of May.

The other variable that jumps out in these early survey results is that the most pessimistic outlook is for public two-year institutions, which are commonly referred to as junior colleges or community colleges. As of July, nearly three in four presidents expected that their college enrolments would decline in the fall. Also notable is that the survey outlook was worse among two-year colleges in July than was the case in May.

The reasons for the declining outlook for two-year colleges are not entirely clear but some of the factors appear to be that most of these institutions (92% as of this fall) are continuing with online delivery. Most also offer shorter-term programmes, and many of those focus on applied learning, which may not always translate as well to online delivery.

The outlook for Canada

This pattern is also playing out to some extent in Canada, where a large number of colleges and universities have also now reported on actual or expected enrolments for fall.

Consultant and futurist Ken Steele has compiled these reports into a detailed summary on his , and again there are some clear trends emerging in those figures.

Mr Steele notes that, as in the US, community colleges in Canada are seeing significant downward pressure on both domestic and international numbers. Applied programmes at these institutions, many of which (a) are one-to-two years in duration and (b) rely on some level of hands-on learning, are especially vulnerable during the shift to online learning this year.

A number of colleges in Ontario with large international programmes, for example, are projecting significant enrolment drops this fall, including Georgian College (-24%), Humber College (-40%), Sheridan College (-42%), and St Clair College (-50%).

Similarly, those universities that have publicly reported projections for the year ahead are anticipating significant declines in international numbers, typically ranging from -20% to -50%. Some have put a dollar value on that decrease as well, with the University of British Columbia anticipating a CDN$76 million shortfall in international tuition revenues for the 2020/21 academic year, and Thompson Rivers University forecasting a CDN$20 million drop in international tuition.

More broadly, Mr Steele observes that larger research institutions may have an advantage in terms of attracting domestic students this year, while, ironically, some smaller institutions that emphasise more the quality of their campus communities or student experience may be at more of a disadvantage. “It wouldn’t surprise me if the big winners in domestic enrolment were top research universities like [University of Toronto], [University of Waterloo], [Western University], and [University of Saskatchewan],” he says. “Far-flung Canadian undergrads see an opportunity to attend a big brand institution without leaving home, and may even assume that larger institutions have better-developed online offerings.” Meanwhile, “It appears as though many of the universities struggling with domestic enrolment this fall are those that have always prided themselves on their campus experience (like Acadia, Brandon, Bishop’s and [Mount Saint Vincent University]).”

For additional background, please see:

• “Recruitment reset for 2020/21: Focus on content and agents”
• “Early lessons from the pandemic: New products and the power of partnerships”
• “Looking ahead: Scenario planning and recovery forecasts for international education”
• “Coronavirus update: Economic and mobility impacts will depend on how long the outbreak persists”

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