The public files are in many respects an under-appreciated resource, because they provide detailed guidance about the rules and compliance requirements for Canada’s various immigration streams. They also provide a window into how, over time, that guidance can be expanded, clarified, or otherwise changed.

The larger context here is that many students gather information about compliance or the fine points of their visa status from peers, through online message boards, and from other unofficial sources. Many, too, file their own applications for visas or renewals without assistance from an authorised advisor or lawyer – and they may or may not be aware of the latest official guidance.

A number of changes have been published in recent weeks to the reference files for study permit and post-graduate work permit (PGWP) compliance. Not all of these are rule changes. Rather, many take the form of useful clarifications of established policy or practice. That said, keeping track of those changes can be tricky as they may not be publicly announced or otherwise highlighted in the published files.

In broad terms, the revisions made in the second half of June point to greater scrutiny of the enrolment status and academic progress of continuing students, students transferring between programmes and institutions, and students’ absence or leave from studies. They also introduce important updates to PGWP eligibility, and they mark the end of an exception for temporary residents to pursue studies in Canada without a study permit.

Actively pursuing studies

The current version (as of 18 June 2026) of the IRCC file “” expands on the department’s expectations for the active pursuit of studies and academic progression with additional detail on when the programme of studies is considered to be completed.

Specifically, it stipulates that:

“Studies are considered officially completed on the date the DLI first notifies the student by any of the following:

• Completion letter
• Transcript
• Degree or diploma

The date stated on the document will be considered the date of notification unless the applicant and/or DLI can provide proof of a different date.”

The significance of that mechanism is underscored by a related note in the study permit guidance, which specifies that the student’s study permit “will become invalid … 90 days after the day the study permit holder completed their studies.”

Changing DLIs or programmes of study

The include considerable expansion of the rules around transferring between institutions.

This guidance is based on a rule change, effective 8 November 2024, which stipulates that “study permit holders in Canada, whose permit names a DLI [Designated Learning Institution], must apply for a new study permit if they wish to change designated learning institutions (DLIs).”

The updated file expands on this point by specifying that “study permit holders must adhere to the condition that they remain enrolled at the DLI named on their study permit until they complete their studies … their study permit becomes invalid on the day that they are no longer enrolled at the DLI named on their study permit, other than as a result of completing their studies.”

“Therefore, if a student whose study permit names a DLI has changed DLIs without applying for a new study permit, their previous study permit is rendered invalid and the student is considered to be studying without authorization at the new DLI.”

The updated guidance also addresses the scenario where a student may have a study permit that does not specify a DLI: “If a post-secondary student holds a study permit issued prior to November 8, 2024,that does not name a DLI, they should apply for a new study permit when changing DLIs. Once that study permit with no DLI is expired, they must apply for a new study permit which will be issued with the name of the DLI they are attending.”

The bottom line is that students cannot change institutions before they obtain a new study permit that specifies the new DLI.

The exception to this pertains to students who transfer to a different programme of study within the same DLI: “Students engaging in post-secondary studies in Canada are authorized to change programs of study within the same DLI at the same level of study, provided they are not limited from doing so by conditions imposed on their study permit.”

Finally, the expanded guidance in this area also provides some clear provisions for secondary students transitioning to post-secondary education:

“Students must apply for a new study permit with the DLI’s name on it when they transition to post-secondary studies to avoid any non-compliance issues.”

And:

“If a student is attending a secondary school while on a visitor record, they must wait for their study permit application to be approved before beginning studies at the post-secondary level.”

Leave from studies

remains consistent from past versions in that, “Students may be required or may wish to take leave from their studies while in Canada. For the purpose of assessing if a student is actively pursuing their studies, any leave taken from a program of studies in Canada should not exceed 150 days from the date the leave commenced and must be authorized by their DLI.”

However, the 18 June updates expand on multiple leave periods and work rights during a leave from studies.

The point regarding multiple leave periods is in keeping with an overall pattern towards greater scrutiny of student progress: “In cases where a student has taken multiple periods of authorized leave in Canada during their program of study, the officer should consider the student’s reasons for the various periods of leave. If the multiple periods of leave do not appear to support the expectation that the student is making reasonable progress toward the completion of their course or program of study in the time allotted by the course or program of study, the officer may determine that the study permit holder has not fulfilled the condition to actively pursue their course or program of study.”

And on the question of working during a leave from studies, the updated document sets out plainly that, “If a study permit holder is not attending class full time, they are not eligible to work as per the condition listed on their study permit … During any leave from studies, including DLI closures, a study permit holder cannot work on or off campus.”

PGWP and non-credit programmes

IRCC also updated its guidance for on 24 June 2026. The notable change here occurs in the section “Who’s not eligible for a PGWP” which has been changed to specify that students are not eligible if they have “completed a non-credit program of study (except for a flight school program).”

The significance of such updates is underscored by the high-profile case of a large number of PGWP application rejections this month for graduates from the Canadian Institute of Osteopathic Therapy (CIOT) in Calgary. CIOT delivers programmes in partnership with , and students in such public-private partnerships (P3) are no longer eligible for PGWPs following a rule change that came into effect on 15 May 2024.

However, many of the CIOT students who have had their PGWP applications refused began their studies prior to that May 2024 effective date, and therefore should be grandfathered under the previous policy that allowed students in P3 programmes to be eligible for post-study work.

, an independent news outlet, reports that, “The students immediately inquired about this with [IRCC], which said the mass rejections were due to recent policy changes, including that non-credit courses were no longer eligible for work permits …. This modification was made on June 24, years after the students initially started their programs and 18 to 21 months after they submitted their work permit applications.”

In a written response to Livewire Calgary, IRCC explained that “There have been no changes to the eligibility criteria. We updated our PGWP webpage in June 2026 to clarify the existing eligibility requirements related to non-credit programs of study.”

The inference from that reporting is that (i) the policy around non-credit study may have been clear within IRCC but may not have been commonly understood otherwise; (ii) IRCC appears to have determined that there was some ambiguity in this area, thus the 24 June update; and (iii) because this does not represent, in the apparent view of IRCC, a rule change (but rather a clarification), students may not be automatically grandfathered.

���Ϲ��� Monitor understands that many of the affected students are appealing their PGWP refusals and that the published guidance in this area may be further tested as a result.

Study for work permit holders

Finally, IRCC has also closed out that allowed some work permit holders to study in Canada without a study permit.

This policy had been in place from 27 June 2023, and it officially expired on 27 June 2026.

For additional background, please see:

• “OECD: International students may be underinformed about job prospects in top destinations“
• “New data provides early signals that Canada’s popularity as a study destination is on the rise“
• “New international student permit approvals for Canada fell below COVID levels in 2025“
• “Canada’s foreign enrolment has fallen by nearly 300,000 students over the last two years“

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It is no coincidence that the Key Five are all emerging countries in the Global South, where large proportions of students are open to emigrating, temporarily or permanently, because of limited local opportunities. This makes immigration officials tend to question whether study visa applicants are genuine students – i.e., interested in quality education, a high-skilled job, and remaining compliant with visa conditions – or individuals with little intent to study and great intent to migrate in any way they can. Unfortunately, many genuine students from the Global South are disadvantaged in their applications because of where they are from.

The impact of the visa rejection trend for students from emerging economies in Asia and Africa could be enormous across the global international education landscape – and beyond. Already, it is spurring fewer visa grants, reduced recruiting in high-risk markets, and more withdrawals from students eager to avoid a rejection on their student profile. Not surprisingly, commencements are trending down in leading study destinations, and this will pressure overall enrolments in the years ahead.

In this article, we will look at Key Five origin countries with regards to:

• Their importance to overall enrolments across the Big Four;
• Recent study visa rejection rates;
• Commencement trends (i.e., the volume of new students provided a study visa allowing them to enrol in a Big Four education institution).

Contribution to overall international student numbers

According to the most recent available enrolment data, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Nigeria, and Pakistan compose anywhere from 30% to 40%+ of the entire international student body in Big Four destinations.

Visa rejection rates for the Key Five

Having looked at the huge presence of Key Five students in the total international student populations of the Big Four, we’ll turn to recent visa refusal trends (where official data are available).

Bangladesh: Nearly three-quarters (73%) of Bangladeshi applicants for US F-1 visas were turned away in 2025. Bangladeshi students have in recent years been very likely to receive a visa for Australia (about a 5% rejection rate in 2024/25), but in February 2026, more than half (51%) of offshore applicants from Bangladesh were refused.

India: Indian students, who represent either the #1 or #2 source market across the Big Four, are now quite likely to be refused a study visa in those destinations. Rejection rates were 61% in the US (2025), 80% in Canada (Q2 2025), and 60% in Australia (February 2026). While only 7.5% were denied a sponsored study visa in the UK in Q4 2025–Q1 2026, this this was up from less than 4% in winter 2024/25.

Nepal: More than 8 in 10 (81%) Nepali applicants were rejected for a US F-1 visa in 2025, and in February 2026, the Australian study visa rejection rate for Nepal soared to 65%. Interestingly, Nepali students were more likely to be approved for a UK sponsored study visa in winter 2025/26 than in winter 2024/25, bucking the general trend for emerging markets (see chart below).

Nigeria: Since December 2025, Nigerians have been included in an expanded travel ban announced by the US administration, along with dozens of other countries (mostly in Africa and Asia). In the UK, sponsored study rejections for Nigerian students used to be rare (less than 5%), but in winter 2025/26, 20% of Nigerian applicants were turned away. In Canada, between 70–80% were refused a study permit in in 2025.

Pakistan: More than 70% of Pakistanis were refused an F-1 visa in the US in 2026, and more than 6 in 10 offshore applicants from Pakistan were denied an Australian study visa in February 2026. Like Nigerians, Pakistani students applying for a sponsored study visa in the UK saw their rejection rate spike massively in winter 2025/26: increasing from 5.6% to 41% year-over-year.

These rejection rates for Key Five countries represent an absolutely huge number of potential students turned away.

What is happening to commencements?

Key Five commencements (new student entrants) are falling across the Big Four, with less than a handful of exceptions.
 
A striking example is F-1 visa issuances in the US in July/August of 2024 compared with July/August 2025. The percentages in the table below are based on our analysis of data from the US Department of State. It bears mentioning that in September of 2025 (not shown in the table), F-1 commencements fell further for Bangladesh (-69%), Nepal (-96%), Nigeria (-33%), and Pakistan (-9%) compared with September 2024.

In the UK, the following chart from HESA shows the dramatic drop-off in Indian (turquoise) and Nigerian (navy blue) commencements between 2023/24 and 2024/25: -13% and -33%, respectively. Over the span of two years (2022/23 to 2024/25), the declines were even more serious: -33% for India (126,580 to 94,955) and -132% for Nigeria (53,790 to 23,160).

In Canada, new student arrivals (from all nationalities) fell from 208,750 in 2024 to 115,120 in 2025. In January to April 2026 compared with the same period in 2025, arrivals were down -73% to about 200,000. There is no publicly available government information for specific markets, but the Times of India reports that between January and August 2025, Canada issued just 9,955 new study permits to Indian students.

In Australia, overall commencements fell by about -15% between 2024 and 2025, but this decline was concentrated in sectors other than higher education (the number of new international students in Australian universities edged up slightly in that time period). There was more of a mixed bag of commencement trends for the Key Five than in Canada, the UK, and US. Between 2024 and 2025, Indian and Pakistani commencements fell by -3.5% and -33%, respectively, while Nepal was up +33.5% and Bangladesh +33%.

The implications will stretch beyond international education

Our Key Five markets – Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Nigeria, and Pakistan – can be viewed as roughly representative of what is happening to mobility influences and flows between the Global South and Big Four destinations. They serve to show how immigration policies (and/or policy effects) in the Big Four are affecting demand from top non-EU markets. These policies, especially if they stretch on in time, could lead to:

• An intensification of existing challenges for the operations of hundreds of universities, colleges, and schools across the Big Four. Those institutions are often highly reliant on international student tuition amid declining domestic enrolments and/or public funding. Chinese commencements (which, for decades, were an important source of overall growth) are falling, and emerging markets in Asia and Africa have helped to mitigate the impact.

• Alternative destinations gaining a greater share of the world’s internationally mobile students (this is already happening – see From the Big Four to the Big Fourteen for background).



• A decline in the economic contribution of international education in the Big Four.



• A weakening of innovation and productivity in Big Four economies. India, in particular, contributes a large volume of STEM students and workers to Western nations.



• An erosion of the soft power of the Big Four in the Global South.

Methodological note

Data analyses are based on statistics from:

• The Australian
• (IRCC)
• The UK’s (HESA)
• The in the US

For additional information, please see:

• “UK: International student numbers fall for second year, especially in postgraduate programmes“
• “UK: Sponsored study visa issuances down, rejection rates up, and more“
• “There are more international students in the US than ever in 2025, but commencements are declining“
• “Visa rejections climb in the US for international students from key markets including India“
• “New international student permit approvals for Canada fell below COVID levels in 2025“
• “Australia: Multiple data indicators signal further declines ahead for international student numbers“
• “Australia: Latest enrolment data challenges the government’s assertion of stability for international education this year“

The post What is happening to student mobility flows between the Global South and Global North?  appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

Those policies were introduced to limit the number of new international students coming into the country after years of double-digit growth. But they overshot their target: far fewer students have come to Canada since 2024 than the government predicted. The confusing rollout of each new rule reduced international students’ confidence in the benefits of applying to Canadian institutions.

However, a significant policy reversal in November 2025 appears to have (1) sparked new interest in Canada, and (2) improved Canadian institutions’ potential to recruit international students in the current immigration context.

Dramatic increase in search interest

Keystone Education Group says that in December 2025, there was a +55% year-over-year increase in international student searches for Canada on its platform – a major change after two years of decline.

The turning point for the rebound was the government’s 6 November 2025 announcement that master’s and doctoral-level students would be removed from the 2026 cap on new international enrolments.

Incoming postgraduate students no longer need a Provincial Attestation Letter (PAL) for a study permit, and they are now permitted to bring their families with them. Canadian immigration (IRCC) processes those students and families’ applications together, eliminating any uncertainty about whether partners/dependent children will have to wait longer than students for a visa decision.

Keystone’s data also shows an uptick in master’s-level interest. In October 2025, searches for this level were down by -6% compared with October 2024. Then in November, they grew by +28%. Following that, there were sustained, monthly increases:

• +55% in December 2025
• +50% in January 2026
• +21% in February 2026
• +45% in March 2026

Keystone says this pattern suggests “a structural shift in student interest, not a momentary spike.”
Mark Bennett, VP of Research and Insight at Keystone, says:

“Prospective students react clearly and often very consistently to policy changes, and our search data is a great way of tracking that. What’s important here is that it’s the relative calm and clarity that seems to be having a positive effect on Canadian interest. Audiences who may have been struggling to understand Canada’s position on international education are responding to a clearer signal here.”

More evidence of an upturn

Findings from IDP’s most recent Emerging Futures survey, EF9, also show that Canada is regaining popularity. As the following chart illustrates, Australia (+10%), Canada (+7%), and “other” destinations (+9%) gained significant traction this year as destinations students are considering. This is in contrast to lower interest for the UK (-3%) and especially the US (-9%). The comparison is the data from EF9 (conducted in March and April 2026) versus data from EF7 (February 2025).

Will Canada’s momentum continue?

International students’ growing interest in Canada this year comes amidst a more beneficial external and internal environment than in 2024 and 2025.

External factors include:

• Significantly lower interest in the US given the second Trump administration’s immigration policy direction;
  
• More cautious recruitment on the part of UK universities given strict new compliance thresholds (including a requirement that institutions maintain a visa refusal rate of less than 5% to avoid sanctions).

Internal factors include:

• The postgraduate exemption from the cap;
  
• The ability of postgraduates to bring their families;
  
• Greater policy stability, which leads to (1) more confidence among international prospects, and (2) improved ability of institutions and agents to advise students given less confusion and volatility;
  
• More clarity on which programmes are eligible for the Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP);
  
• Higher visa approval rates for university programmes: according to IRCC data, undergraduate approvals rose from a 22% share of all approvals in 2024 to 35% in 2025, and at the postgraduate level, the jump was from 18.5% in 2024 to 30% in 2025;
  
• Last but not least – more targeted recruitment strategies by Canadian institutions.

The question of whether or not Canada can regain its footing as a preferred leading destination depends especially on the internal factors above – including policy stability.

For additional background, please see:

• “New international student permit approvals for Canada fell below COVID levels in 2025“
• “Canada: Government audit finds impact of international student cap far greater than expected“
• “Canada’s foreign enrolment has fallen by nearly 300,000 students over the last two years“
• “Canada announces international student cap numbers for 2026 and updated programme guidance“

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The decline is unfolding as Canada’s new policy settings – a cap on international enrolments and other measures – continue to impact international students and the Canadian education system alike. The government’s reforms, which were intended to reduce the number of international students in Canada and improve programme integrity, have considerably overshot the mark.

A recent report from The Office of the Auditor General of Canada (OAG) found that the Canadian government significantly underestimated the effects of its enrolment cap and did too little to improve the integrity of the system. The Auditor General also observed: “The department did not know why [study permit] approval rates were lower than projected.”

The full-year data for 2025 from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) provides the answer: lower-than-expected permit grants were due to (1) the erosion of international student demand and (2) historically low approval rates for new study permit applications.

“Last year, IRCC processed 211,000 new post-secondary applications from prospective international students,” says a new analysis from . “Compared to 2024, demand was -55% lower year-over-year.” In other words, much fewer international students applied for a study permit last year than was the case in 2024, and this was on the heels of another substantial applications drop in 2023.

At the same time, approval rates have fallen sharply over the last five years. In 2021, 57.9% of new study permit applications were approved. That approval rate fell to 44.9% in 2024 and then took another significant step down to 35.7% – in 2025.

These two declining trends are closely linked. Simply put, students do not need to wait for official statistics to understand that many of their peers are having their applications rejected and that they should perhaps consider other options.

Can we talk about the overcorrection?

Another newly released study, this time from the , reinforces the point: “The [enrolment] cap and related reforms are reducing [international student enrolment] in excess of the provincial and territorial allocation targets, because they damage the brand and reputation of Canada’s International Student Program…After two years of caps, the 2024 policy changes seem to have reduced new study permit applications and enrolments much more than IRCC planned – and much more than provinces, territories and DLIs expected.”

The Committee’s study of the International Student Program was carried out from September to November 2025 and included testimony and written briefs from dozens of expert witnesses and organisations.

The Standing Committee finds that, “Although education and the regulation of learning institutions fall under provincial and territorial jurisdiction, the federal government was responsible for issuing an unsustainable number of study permits and allowing the system to be abused.” However, “While IRCC is attempting to reduce the number of international students in some provinces and territories, and to address overreliance on international students by colleges, its policies are impacting enrolment in regions and institutions across the country and in higher numbers than anticipated. Despite the government’s complex allocation formula, the policy is too broad and ignores regional institutional realities…While universities in some regions, such as Quebec, have not generally had problems with growing international student populations too quickly, nor with housing these students, the cap has decimated enrolment from coast to coast to coast.”

In his testimony during the Committee hearings in September 2025, Alex Usher, President of Higher Education Strategy Associates, said:

“What we ended up with was a federal government that barely understood what was going on, lashing out, acting alone, doing anything it could to bring the numbers down with only the barest understanding of the system it was regulating…We have almost no instinct anymore for co-operative federalism. This was a clear case where governments should have been talking to one another, and they weren’t. They should have been including institutions, as well. We have brutally siloed decision-making.”

Among the 10 recommendations put forward to the Government of Canada by the Standing Committee, perhaps the most compelling one is the related point that: “To give time for all actors in the international student system to adapt, and to give more certainty to current and prospective international students, the [committee recommends] that Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada consult more extensively with the provinces and territories about long-term plans for the International Student Program.”

Needless to say, the stakes are high – both for the country and for prospective students seeking access to education – and there is an urgent need for more thoughtful and effective policy making. The issues at hand transcend international student statistics and extend to the larger questions of Canada’s long-term social and economic development, in particular its ability to attract talented students, scholars, and researchers and what that means to larger national goals of innovation and productivity.

As Larissa Bezo, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Canadian Bureau for International Education, said in her Committee testimony:

“We need to be clear that this isn’t solely an immigration issue. Talent development and attraction cuts across departments and needs whole-of-government coordination.”

For additional background, please see:

• “Canada: Government audit finds impact of international student cap far greater than expected“
• “Canada’s foreign enrolment has fallen by nearly 300,000 students over the last two years“
• “Canada: Study permit numbers are in steep decline in 2025“

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Some of these changes are in effect immediately; some are still pending.

What has already changed?

As of 1 April 2026, international students no longer need a separate co-op work permit that are part of their post-secondary programme in Canada. This change applies to work-integrated learning components within the student’s programme of study, including co-op placements, internships, practicums, and mentorships.

This is a significant departure from the previous practice where students pursing any such work-integrated learning placement were obliged to obtain a separate co-op work permit in addition to their study permit.

Commenting on the change on LinkedIn, Ankita Goyal, an adjunct professor of immigration law at Queen’s University, said, “Removing the need for a co-op work permit means students won’t be stuck waiting to start their placements—something that has historically caused delays, stress, and even lost opportunities.”

“This change simplifies the administrative process for students by requiring only one permit to complete a single study programme,” adds a statement from IRCC. “It does not increase the number of students who are authorised to work or affect temporary resident volumes; it simply removes an administrative step that is no longer necessary.”

In order to be eligible to carry out any such work-integrated learning with only a study permit, the work placement must be a requirement of the study programme. The updated IRCC guidance says that eligible students must meet all of the following conditions:

• “You have conditions printed on your initial study permit that say you’re allowed to work on campus.
• You have a letter from your DLI [Designated Learning Institution] that confirms the work placement is a requirement of your study program.
• You have a valid study permit or you applied to extend your study permit before it expired.
• You’re a full-time student at a DLI.
• Your study programme is at least 6 months long, at a post-secondary level and leads to a degree, diploma or certificate.
• The work placement of your study programme totals 50% or less of your study programme.”

Further easing ahead?

In addition to those immediate changes around co-op of other work placements, IRCC has also proposed to rules around post-graduation work permits (PGWP).

Most notable among these is a proposal, for which consultations will be ongoing for the next month or two, that would allow international students to work without a work permit in cases where:

• An international student is waiting for a decision on a study permit extension; and
• An international graduate is awaiting a decision on an application for a post-graduation work permit (PGWP).

“When international students finish their programme, they can apply for a PGWP. However, there’s a gap between graduating and receiving the PGWP,” says a related report on . “Currently, gaps between permit expiry and approval of a new permit can leave students and graduates in limbo, and unsure about their ability to work, even though current regulations do allow graduates to begin work before receiving their work permit.”

The process and timeline for implementation of any new rules around PGWPs is not yet clear, but the current proposals reflect the government’s stated intention to streamline and Canada’s immigration system, and so seem likely to proceed in some form.

For additional background, please see:

• “Canada: Government audit finds impact of international student cap far greater than expected“
• “Canada’s foreign enrolment has fallen by nearly 300,000 students over the last two years“
• “Canada: A case study of immigration policy impacts on postsecondary institutions and the wider economy“

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As of this year, however, that pathway enrolment has now dwindled to the “low single digits” according to industry experts. This dramatic shift is the result of new immigration settings that essentially upended that national network of joint programmes.

Not enough PALs

The challenge to the pathway model first appeared in the form of Canada’s cap on foreign enrolment in January 2024. That cap is in part administered through an inventory of Provincial Attestation Letters (PALs) that are allocated by the federal government to each Canadian province or territory. Each provincial or territorial government in turn distributes its PAL inventory among its respective Designated Learning Institutions (DLIs). The pattern that has emerged over the first years of the cap system is that (1) PAL allocations tend to be heavily weighted to public institutions and (2) the allocations for language schools are often very modest.

In 2026, for example, Ontario, the province that is home to the country’s largest share of international students, allocated 96% of its PALs to public colleges and universities in the province. Only 4% were reserved for language schools, private universities, and other institutions.

The change of status problem

Subsequent to the introduction of the enrolment cap, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) also introduced that sets out that an international student, “Must be enrolled in the designated learning institution (DLI) named on [their] study permit. This means [they] can no longer change DLIs by letting us know through [their] online account. To change DLIs, [they] need to get a new study permit by applying to extend [their] current one.”

This directly impacted the traditional pathway model in Canada in that students would now need to apply for a new study permit as they moved from one pathway partner (one DLI, that is) to the next.

In short, that combination of a limited inventory of PALs for language schools and the additional uncertainty introduced around the new change of status provisions meant that the conventional pathway model in Canada was no longer viable.

Creating a new pathway model for language study

On the heels of those earlier policy changes from 2024, IRCC introduced a further revision to its rules for “joint programmes resulting in a single credential” in July 2025.

Languages Canada, the peak body for language training in the country, sought clarification from IRCC as to how that new rule might apply to pathway programmes. “The idea we began with,” says Languages Canada Executive Director Gonzalo Peralta, “is that language itself could be the joint programme.”

In November 2025, the association received confirmation from IRCC that the new rule around joint programmes could indeed be applied to a language study pathway.

This determination led Languages Canada to create a new model for pathways – the (JPP) – and to operationalise that new model via a limited pilot beginning in February 2026.

Languages Canada explains that in the JPP, “Lower-level language education is delivered by the private partner, followed by upper-level language education at the public partner. Students remain within a single joint programme under one study permit. The public institution issues a [letter of acceptance, LOA] and PAL naming both DLIs and specifying the joint programme. The public institution conducts LOA verification and compliance reporting, and issues a conditional LOA for the academic programme [outside of the JPP].”

That model is based on IRCC’s current for joint programmes which set out that:

“Students pursuing a joint programme that results in a single credential may be issued

• one provincial/territorial attestation letter from the province or territory of the DLI issuing the credential and
• one study permit for the DLI issuing the credential for the entire duration of their studies (or for the duration of their passport validity, whichever comes first).

The DLI issuing the credential must

• issue the LOA with no academic conditions required to advance to the next DLI in the joint programme
• complete the LOA verification activity
• complete the international student compliance regime report, which includes reporting on the student when they are studying at any other DLI that is part of the administration of the joint program”

With that operational guidance in place, the benefits for each partner in the JPP are clear. As Languages Canada explains, “For private language schools, the JPP creates a compliant pathway for study permit students and helps navigate PAL scarcity. For public institutions, it offers a way to increase intake by partnering with trusted private partners and leveraging established recruitment pipelines in diverse markets.”

Going nationwide

Based on the findings from the early pilot and on the considerable demand from prospective pathway partners, Languages Canada announced at its annual conference in March 2026 that the JPP pilot will now be rolled out nationally. “The Joint Pathway Program aims to bring language pathway programmes back to Canada’s education ecosystem, in a structured and responsible way that protects students, institutions, and Canada,” says Mr Peralta. “By aligning language education with post-secondary pathways in a clear and coordinated way, we are restoring confidence in Canada as a destination of choice for international students.”

Along with ILSC and Oxford International, ILAC is a participant in the pilot. “As an established leader in Canadian pathway programmes, ILAC is committed to using the JPP to continue delivering an exceptional student journey, offering a smooth, supported transition from our language programmes to post-secondary institutional partners,” adds Senior Vice President Partnership Development and Career Colleges Magdalena Link. “The IRCC-approved JPP further amplifies these opportunities, opening new doors for students pursuing higher education in Canada. The benefits for students are clear: the JPP removes the risk associated with change of status or applying for a new study permit. It offers more certainty as students can transfer from the private language school partner to the public post-secondary partner under a single study permit.”

“Our objective is to bring pathways back to Canada,” says Languages Canada’s Peralta. “Within three to five years, we want to have at least 10% of language students in pathways.”

For additional background, please see:

• “Canada’s foreign enrolment has fallen by nearly 300,000 students over the last two years“
• “Canada: A case study of immigration policy impacts on postsecondary institutions and the wider economy“
• “Canada announces international student cap numbers for 2026 and updated programme guidance“
• “Nearly 30 Canadian language programmes closed in Q1, marking the ‘sharpest decline in the sector’s history’“
• “Canada’s language sector buffeted by policy changes in 2024“

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The data suggests that the Canadian government’s reforms have achieved many stated goals, but that these achievements have come at considerable cost to the country’s economic potential. Canada’s population is in decline, and there are significant skills gaps in critical areas. notes:

“To function at its peak and provide a better life for all Canadians, our economy needs to fill tens of thousands of critical positions in engineering, technical occupations (medical technologists, dental care occupations), higher-skill goods (mechanics, electrical trades), and other higher-skill services (nurses, teachers, social services and therapy professionals). The worker shortage in these ‘clusters,’ as categorized by the Conference Board of Canada in a recent report, is costing us a lot — around $2.6 billion this year already … but simply put, we’re short on Canadians.”

Have the policies been effective?

The stated aims of Canada’s new policy settings include:



• Reducing demand pressure on rental prices, affordable housing, and health care;
• Responding to public unease about immigration levels;
• Eliminating the ability of and financial incentive for institutions and agents to recruit aggressively or irresponsibly in overseas student markets.

International student policy reforms have played a role in spurring progress in all these areas – except for alleviating the strain on health care. For example, polls show that Canadians are now about immigration levels than in 2024. Rental prices in 2025 than in 2024, though a rapid injection of new housing supply is as much a reason for this as fewer new temporary residents.

As for health care, the decline in new international students has not resulted in more health care capacity and quality for Canadians. Instead, there is a growing shortage of doctors and nurses in Canada. The National Library of Medicine notes: “Canada faces a 22,823-family physician shortfall, with only 1,300 new graduates annually, making it impossible to close the gap at the current rate, especially in rural areas.”

Similarly, the told the House of Commons Standing Committee on Citizenship and Immigration (CIMM) in 2025 that the reforms are exacerbating Canada’s acute shortage of nurses, particularly in rural areas:

“Beyond the financial implications [of reduced international student tuition] for schools, certain locations rely on international student nursing graduates to fill shortages in local health care institutions. This is particularly true of programs that operate in linguistic-minority contexts and rely on international students to meet the increasingly diverse health industry and population needs. Current reforms are therefore significantly affecting provinces’ health human resources needs and increasing the vulnerability of precarious, yet essential, nursing programs. In the short term, the decisions affect the viability of programs (such as through program closures, layoffs, hiring freezes). In the long term, they affect the academic institution’s capacity to address the increasing needs of a diverse population.”

The effects have been significant

A central goal of the reforms was to reduce the number of international students in “low-demand” programmes such as business, which accounted for the lion’s share of new international student enrolments between 2018 and 2023. But international enrolments in a much wider range of fields have fallen dramatically, including at the graduate level and in the STEM specialisations Canada needs most for its global competitiveness.

In September 2025, , a leading source of Canadian business and technology news, interviewed Robert Asselin, the CEO of the U15, which is the association representing Canada’s most highly ranked research universities such as the University of Toronto, McGill University, and the University of British Columbia. Commenting on the effect of the cap and associated reforms, Mr Asselin said:

“Like capital, talent is mobile. [International talent] can go elsewhere if they feel that they’re not welcome here, and this is what’s happening.”

According to U15 data, between September 2023 and September 2024 (when the study permit cap started affecting Canadian college and university admissions) international enrolments fell by -21.4% in electrical and computer engineering. Double-digit declines also occurred in graduate medical residencies, chemical engineering, environmental sciences, and biology and botany.

In a statement to The Logic, Matthew Krupovich, a spokesperson for Immigration Minister Lena Metlege Diab, said, “Cutting the number of university grad students was never the government’s goal. Canada remains open to graduate students.”

But the “the Canadian message heard abroad is rather different,” said the U15’s Mr Asselin:

“What we’ve said around the world is, ‘Don’t come to Canada. We don’t want you here. Even if you’re smart, even if you have the best grades, the best marks, we’re closing the door.’”

It seems clear that the government is aware of falling graduate enrolments in vital subject fields. It recently announced that it would exempt international students applying for master’s and PhD programmes at public higher education institutions from the study cap.
 
After removing the cap on PhD and graduate students (along with their families), Immigration Minister Lena Metlege Diab said:

“We recognize that we need them here to grow our economy. And we also recognize that when you’re coming as a graduate student and a PhD student, you’re obviously coming for that purpose. So I think that’s a great start for now.”

The PhD and graduate student exemption came into effect in January 2025. It won’t erase the losses of key talent over the past couple of years, but it may help reverse the tide.

Retention is also an issue

A report from the Institute for Canadian Citizenship (ICC) and the Conference Board of Canada, , reveals that Canada has not only lost potential global talent as a result of its broad-based international education policies, but that it is also losing the global talent it already has.

The report’s main insights are:

• Immigrants are leaving Canada at near-record rates;
• The most educated and skilled immigrants are leaving at twice the rate of other immigrants;
• The weakest retention rates are immigrants skilled in high-demand fields such as business and finance management, information and communications technology, engineering and architecture management, and manufacturing and processing engineering.

The report concludes:

“[These findings are] particularly noteworthy given Canada’s demographic reality. The country’s fertility rate has hit a record low of 1.26, placing it among the lowest in the world. With births declining and an aging population, Canada’s immigration model has become essential for maintaining workforce levels and economic growth. Reduced immigration targets mean fewer newcomers will arrive. Coupled with onward migration, economic impacts will compound.”

For additional background, please see:

• “Canada: A case study of immigration policy impacts on postsecondary institutions and the wider economy”&�Բ�����;
• “Canada announces new incentives for international recruitment of masters and PhD students”
• “Canada’s foreign enrolment has fallen by nearly 300,000 students over the last two years”

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That is, to put it mildly, a historic drop.

The more provided by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) underscores the point.

IRCC reports that as of December 2023, there were 673,970 foreign students in Canada with a study permit. Also as of that month, there were another 320,830 students in Canada with both a study permit and work permit. Combining the two groups adds to a total of 994,800 students.

Fast forward to November 2025, and those numbers had fallen to 476,330 and 244,900, respectively, for a total of 721,230 international students.

That amounts to an overall decline of -27.5%, or 273,570 students.

That precipitous decline in Canada’s foreign student population was ushered in by new policy settings that were largely introduced over the first half of 2024. Those measures include a hard cap on foreign enrolment, new restrictions on post-study work rights, and surging rejection rates for study permit applicants.

The net effect of those new settings has been to substantially reduce the numbers of new students coming to Canada to begin their studies, another key underlying trend that we see illustrated in the following chart.

IRCC highlights that student arrivals are down by -60% for January to November 2025, compared to the same period in 2024.

Needless to say, with so few new students arriving, Canada’s foreign enrolment base will be further reduced over the course of 2026. Canada’s says the country expects to welcome 155,000 student arrivals in 2026 (a -49% reduction from the 2025 target), and then 150,000 per year in 2027 and 2028. This compares to the 293,100 actual student arrivals reported by IRCC for 2024.

More broadly, Canada’s Immigration Levels Plan aims to reduce the Canada’s population of temporary residents – a category primarily composed of international students and temporary foreign workers – to less than 5% of Canada’s population by the end of 2027.

In December 2025, reported, “On October 1, 2025, there were 2,847,737 non-permanent residents in Canada (6.8% of the total population), down from 3,024,216 on July 1, 2025 (7.3% of the total population). The decrease in the estimated number of non-permanent residents was the result of larger, record-high outflows (339,505) – that is, permits expiring – compared with inflows (163,026), which reflect permits issued.”

Canada’s larger goals in terms of managing its temporary resident population down (as a percentage of total population) have been hindered by the continued growth in the number of temporary foreign workers over the last two years. Indeed, the number of foreign nationals in Canada with work permits continued to increase until June 2025, and only begin to decline marginally over the second half of 2025. Put another way, most of the reductions that have been observed in temporary resident numbers in Canada to date have come from the declining number of international students.

Canada’s total population is projected to reach 41.6 million by the end of next year. In order to come under the government’s target threshold to bring the number of temporary residents to under 5% of the total population, the number of non-permanent residents in Canada will have to fall to roughly 2.08 million by then; down from a total of about 2.7 million as of November 2025.

For additional background, please see:

• “Canada cuts foreign enrolment cap by nearly 50% as current year trends below COVID levels“
• “Canada: Study permit numbers are in steep decline in 2025“
• “Measuring the impacts of the first full year of Canada’s foreign student enrolment cap“

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