H-1Bs are awarded via a lottery system which, owing to that came into effect on 1 April 2019, now favours foreign graduates with advanced degrees from US institutions. The important thing to note alongside this rule change is that the number of applicants (or “petitions”) for an H-1B vastly outstrips the supply. The US government issues 85,000 H-1B visas per year, and, in 2018 alone, it received just over 396,000 completed applications.

Under the new rules, international students with advanced degrees from US higher education institutions are able to apply for one of 65,000 available H1-B visas as a first step in a two-fold lottery system, and then again – if they aren’t successful the first time – for the remaining 20,000 of the total allotment of 85,000. Previously, they would have only been considered once in the annual lottery. The effect of the new rule therefore is to benefit foreign students with master’s degrees (or more advanced qualifications) but to also diminish the chances of others (i.e., those with bachelor’s degrees or non-degree qualifications).

“Request for Evidence”

The volume of applications for H-1Bs has been relatively stable over the past four years, with roughly 400,000 completed petitions annually. One important difference regarding this period, however, is the growing number of applications that have triggered a “Request for Evidence” (RFE) from US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS).

from USCIS explains, “If all required initial evidence is not submitted with the [H-1B petition] or does not demonstrate eligibility, USCIS in its discretion may deny the [application] for lack of initial evidence or for ineligibility or request that the missing initial evidence be submitted within a specified period of time.”

As the following sample of an actual Request for Evidence illustrates, applicants are asked to respond in considerable detail to demonstrate their eligibility for an H-1B, including with detailed job descriptions, organisational charts, and formal statements from their prospective employers.

A sample Request for Evidence as originally published by

Through 2017, roughly 20% of H-1B applicants received a Request for Evidence from USCIS. Last year, however, that number doubled. Of the nearly 400,000 applications filed in 2018, just over 150,000, or about 40%, triggered an RFE. Based on for the first three quarters of this year, a similar percentage of applicants will receive a Request for Evidence in 2019.

The other notable development over the last two years is that a greater percentage of petitions with an RFE are being rejected by USCIS. In 2015 and 2016, the percentage of approved petitions with an RFE was roughly 80%. That proportion fell to 74% in 2017 and then again to 62% last year. Based on year-to-date reporting by USCIS, that proportion is holding somewhere around 62% again this year. In other words, four in ten applicants who receive an RFE are being rejected at that stage before the lottery process begins.

Reports trace the greater scrutiny of H-1B applications to an Executive Order issued by President Donald Trump on 18 April 2017. The “Buy American and Hire American” order explicitly calls for reforms to ensure that H-1B visas “are awarded to the most-skilled or highest-paid petition beneficiaries.”

The executive order has already had far-reaching effects, including, as detailed in an April 2019 report in the , the following:

• “The rescission of guidance regarding deference to prior determinations of eligibility;
• A revised definition of what constitutes ‘specialty occupation’ for H-1B purposes;
• New guidance on “bona fide employer-employee relationship” especially with regard to STEM OPT; and
• of unlawful presence for students.”

For additional background, please see:

• “Proposed H1-B reforms would favour graduates with advanced degrees”
• “Widespread reports of work permit delays for foreign students in US”
• “US report puts the price of declining student market share at US$5.5 billion”
• “US visa data shows declining international numbers”

The post US government moving ahead with H-1B reforms while applying greater scrutiny to applicants appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

The is issued by the admitting institution or school in the US, and must be presented by the international student when he/she applies for a US study visa. Without the I-20, in other words, the student cannot obtain a visa.

As reported by ICE, the 4 June guidance statement arises from recent questions as to “whether recruiters may receive the Form I-20 directly from a school’s designated school official (DSO) and control the distribution to the prospective student.” ICE’s position on this is clear, and the 4 June statement is apparently meant to reinforce long-standing US government policy in this regard. The department points out that the practice of sending I-20s directly to the student is consistently reflected in the manuals, fact sheets, and other information resources it has produced in support of the US Student and Exchange Visitor Program (SEVP).

“These resources,” notes the ICE statement, “state that recruiters cannot be given Forms I-20.” citing one background note for students that says, “A recruiter has no proper role in handling your Form I-20. A recruiter does not issue a Form I-20, nor should the recruiter hold onto your Form I-20 for any reason.”

On that point, US immigration authorities say that the policy is in place for reasons of privacy, security, and fraud prevention. The statement notes in particular that SEVP officials are “aware of instances where recruiters, having obtained a student’s Form I-20, subsequently demanded additional payments before providing it back to the student in advance of a meeting with the consulate for a visa or traveling to the United States.” There is no additional detail provided for this claim, however, nor any indication as to how widespread ICE believes any such issues may be.

Visa processing in the US remains an area of significant concern for international students aspiring to study in the United States, as well as for the American institutions and schools that aim to host them. A recent survey of US colleges found that concerns around visa delays or denials topped the list of factors that, in the eyes of educators, had the greatest influence on the attractiveness of the US as a study destination.

For additional background, please see:

• “US report puts the price of declining student market share at US$5.5 billion”
• “US confirms increase in student visa fees”
• “US visa data shows declining international numbers”

The post US immigration reaffirms that I-20s should not be sent to agents appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

The US government notice cites a concern over foreign students overstaying their visas as the rationale for the new policy: “The failure to provide certain categories of nonimmigrants with specific dates for their authorised periods of stay can cause confusion over how long they may lawfully remain in the United States and has complicated the efforts to reduce overstay rates for nonimmigrant students. The clarity created by date-certain admissions will help reduce the overstay rate.”

The policy notice provides no further detail with respect to the scale of this problem – that is, the number or proportion of visiting students who actually overstay their visas – nor does it indicate the types of limits on visa terms or extensions that may be introduced.

This is perhaps to be expected at this stage as the process of introducing any such new rules can be quite drawn out. Speaking to  earlier this month, Stephen Yale-Loehr, a professor of immigration law at Cornell University, provides a necessary caution for interpreting the 17 October policy statement: “Historically, there are lots of items on the semiannual regulatory agenda that never even make it into a proposed rule. If it happens, it’ll happen slowly. They’ll have to come out with a proposed rule and then ask for comments and then they have to look at those comments before they issue a final rule, and the final rule could be subject to challenge by the courts. No one needs to worry about this immediately.”

Even so, the announcement of this pending policy change – which the government notice indicates has a target implementation window of September 2019 – has drawn a quick reaction from US educators.

“For decades, international students and scholars have been granted immigration status known as ‘duration of status,’ or ‘D/S’ that lasts for the period of time they are engaging in their studies and practical training,” said NAFSA Deputy Executive Director for Public Policy Jill Welch. “They are carefully screened, vetted, and monitored through the US Department of Homeland Security’s Student and Exchange Visitor Information System. Maintaining [the D/S policy] is necessary because the time for study or research can fluctuate given the changing goals and actions of the student or scholar.”

She added, “As universities and colleges across the country work to welcome highly valued, hardworking international students and scholars to our campuses and communities, their efforts are being undermined by policies and regulations that further close our doors and pull up America’s welcome mat…International students and scholars create jobs, drive research, enrich our classrooms, strengthen national security, and are America’s best ambassadors and allies. If we lose our ability to compete for them globally, we lose jobs; we lose future foreign policy connections. The world will become less safe, and, the decisions of today will have lasting negative impacts on future generations of Americans. America can and must do better.”

The broader policy climate

The proposed move away from D/S visa terms occurs against a backdrop of other policy changes that appear to be aimed at tightening US regulations around student visas.

For example, the US administration is planning reforms to the key Optional Practical Training (OPT) and H-1B visa programmes, introduced restrictions on some Chinese student visas, and, most recently, published  for a new, more stringent approach to determining how and when a visiting student begins to accrue “unlawful presence.” The significance of this, in part, is that any foreign students that are so classified can be subject to five-to–ten-year bans on re-entering the country.

And of course the other important piece of context here is that, after decades of nearly uninterrupted growth, international student numbers in the US declined marginally between 2017 and 2018. And as we observed in a recent related report, the US is effectively losing global market share as other major study destinations continue to grow their international enrolments at a faster rate.

For additional background, please see:

• “Up and down the table: Growth trends across major international study destinations”
• “US admissions directors concerned about international enrolment”
• “Global survey compares student decision factors across study destinations”

The post US planning to introduce term limits on student visas appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

The news comes as the UAE works to lessen its reliance on the oil and gas sector and to move the country further along its path to .

More branch campuses expected

The UAE has for years been aiming to be an education hub in the region and indeed, it hosts the second-highest number of university branch campuses in the world after only . Mohammad Abdullah, managing director of the Dubai International Academic City (DIAC) and the Dubai Knowledge Park, said that the expectation is for still more branch campuses to set up in the region. He cautions, however, that universities applying to start branches in DIAC will be carefully assessed and that a rigorous selection process will be applied.

Dubai is home to more than 200 nationalities today and 90% of the city’s population comes from abroad, which is one reason that international branch campuses are such a natural fit. Speaking with Gulf News, Dr Warren Fox, chief of higher education for the UAE’s Knowledge and Human Development Authority, noted that over 40% of Dubai’s 30,000 international students are enrolled at branch campuses operated by some of the top universities in the world.

Of the UAE’s new student visa rules, Mr Fox said,

“We are expecting significant growth in the number of students coming to study in UAE. This decision will not just benefit UAE economy, but also help higher education institutions and students. It is a win-win situation for everyone as you can now complete your education and explore future prospects.”

New visa allowances will facilitate employment

The UAE is not alone in extending visa rights and work periods for foreign students. The country joins Canada, Ireland, Japan, Taiwan, and China in introducing policies that make it easier for international students to study, work, and sometimes immigrate.

Such measures are aimed at attracting students who increasingly expect their education to lead directly to desired career outcomes. A British Council report noted that,

“International student mobility patterns are evolving based on increased education provision globally and students’ inclination towards programmes with tangible employability outcomes.”

Mr Abdullah (cited earlier), said the visa extension announcement for international students will inspire new strategies at DIAC to help students progress toward careers: “We are looking to work even more towards tying different industries to academic institutions.”

Already competitive

The UAE is already known for its well-considered international education strategies. Last year, the British Council published its Shape of Global Higher Education report based on an analysis of international higher education policies across 38 countries. #2 for quality assurance and degree recognition, and # 5 for openness and mobility.

Sally Ward, regional manager, higher education for the British Council, said, “It is really impressive, actually, for such a small country. They have made this very conscious decision to be open, to make this an area of focus, to promote the UAE as a destination of choice, to provide a wide variety of universities and courses and to find ways to encourage students to come to a stable community where they know they are going to get a high-quality education.”

For additional background, please see:

• “Dubai strengthens its position as a regional education hub”
• “China now the leading host for international branch campuses”
• “UAE leads the world in English-medium international school enrolments”

The post UAE announces five-year student visas and residency opportunities appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

The State Department now reports a total of  for the fiscal year ending 30 September 2017. This represents a 17% decline from the 471,000 F-1s issued in 2016, and a nearly 39% drop in F-1 visa issuance from the recent-year high in 2015.

US student visas issued, by class, for fiscal years 2013–2017. Source: US State Department

Of particular note within this overall count of F-1s is a 28% drop in the number of visas granted to Indian students and a 24% decline in visas for Chinese students. These are of course the number two and number one sending markets for the US, respectively, and they have collectively contributed the lion’s share of overall enrolment growth for US schools in recent years.

As always, the normal cautions apply when considering visa data, as opposed to actual enrolment numbers, as visa counts may not correspond precisely to enrolment. This point is particularly relevant in the case of Chinese students, given that a 2014 change in US visa policy now allows Chinese applicants to receive an F-1 that is valid for five years as opposed to one, thereby foregoing an annual renewal of visas for continuing studies. This revision alone could account for a significant proportion of the dramatic drop-off in F-1s issued to Chinese students from 2015 on.

F-1 visas issued to students of top source countries, 2010–2017. Source: US State Department,

Even so, these overall visa counts represent the latest significant indicator of a levelling off and decline in foreign enrolment in the US over 2016 and 2017.

• Data from US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) points to a 2% decline in international undergraduate enrolment between 2016 and 2017, and a 5% decline in the number of foreign students enrolled in US graduate programmes
• The Institute of International Education’s (IIE) Open Doors report highlights a record-high enrolment among survey institutions for 2016/17 but also notes a 3% decline in international commencements
• The latest admissions survey from the Council of Graduate Schools (CGS) also indicates that both international application volumes and commencements dipped between 2015/16 and 2016/17

Set alongside these other important indicators, the significance of such a substantial drop in F-1 visa issuance in 2017 may well be more evident in 2018 and 2019 if the declining commencements suggested by the reduced number of visas issued is less able to keep pace with the number of graduating students in the years ahead.

Contributing factors

The US government does not report on the number of visa applications received, nor does it reveal acceptance or rejection rates. Aside from the on-again-off-again US travel ban on visitors from Muslim-majority countries, however, there are some indications that US visa policy has generally become more restrictive, with more scrutiny of incoming international students, over the last two years.

“Some of the [drop in F-1 visa numbers] can be attributed to stepped-up competition from schools in other countries,” notes the . “But immigration attorneys and school officials say Trump administration policies are making the US a tougher destination for foreigners and point to stricter scrutiny of those who do apply.”

Indeed, US government officials have confirmed that the current US administration has explicitly revised its guidance for consular officials in order to encourage greater scrutiny of student visa applicants.

Declines not felt equally

The Journal further indicates that the steepest enrolment declines in 2017 are being felt at smaller regional institutions outside the top tier of US universities.

This point is echoed by another recent report in the New York Times, which adds that, “Schools in the Midwest have been particularly hard hit — many of them non-flagship public universities that had come to rely heavily on tuition from foreign students.”

The Times also highlights the connection between stable and growing international enrolments and the financial health of US colleges, a point that recently surfaced in updated analysis from Moody’s Investors Service.

“‘Growing uncertainty for international student enrolment stems from immigration policies that are in flux,’ Moody’s said, warning that universities without global brand recognition would be hit hardest. While some flagship public and elite private colleges have been affected…the biggest impact will be felt by second-tier institutions.”

For additional background, please see:

• “SEVIS numbers point to declining international enrolment in US higher education in 2017��”
• “Record-high foreign enrolment in US but commencements decline for the first time in 12 years”
• “American graduate schools report decline in international applications and commencements”

The post US F-1 visas down nearly 17% in 2017 appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

Aside from providing an interesting window into visa processing in New Zealand, the significance of this data is that it relates directly to the types of evidence of English language proficiency that education providers can accept from potential students. In short: applicants from countries where the visa rejection rate is 20% or higher have fewer options for demonstrating English proficiency and will more often require a standardised English test score, such as IELTS or TOEFL.

This provision pertains for students applying for programmes other than language studies, and the full requirements are detailed in Rule 18 of the New Zealand Qualification Authority’s NZQF Programme Approval and Accreditation Rules. The Rule 18 guidelines include  for various levels of study in New Zealand.

The 20% club

The latest INZ data release reveals that some of the world’s major growth markets for student recruitment have rejection rates that exceeded the 20% threshold in 2017.

These include Bangladesh (68% rejection rate), India (32%), Iran (36%), Nepal (52%), Nigeria (61%), Pakistan (35%), Philippines (26%), Sri Lanka (32%), Turkey (79%), and Vietnam (24%).

The highest-volume sender – and largest market – within this group is of course India. But also of note here is that the volume of visa applications from India dropped appreciably in 2017. New Zealand received nearly 9,500 applications from Indian students last year, but this was down from nearly 16,500 in 2016 and the almost 26,000 visa applications from Indian students received in 2015. The rejection rate of 32% for Indian applicants last year was also down considerably from 2015 and 2016, when it stood at 51% and 54% respectively.

Speaking to media in New Zealand, INZ spokesperson Marc Piercey said student visa approval rates for India had “traditionally been lower than elsewhere” due to market complexities and a “high incidence” of fraud.

He added, ”The lower number of applications and higher approval rates in the past few months indicates that  and the majority of providers are heeding advice about the need for higher quality applications.”

Agent performance reported as well

Also of note with the latest INZ data is that the ministry is now publishing  in Vietnam and the Philippines to accompany similar reports that have been available for India since 2016.

These additional reports provide details of 2017 visa acceptance rates for student files handled by 27 agencies in Vietnam, 22 in the Philippines, and 196 in India.

For additional background, please see:

• “New Zealand visa office closures shift emphasis to online processing”
• “New Zealand tightens work visa rules”
• “New report maps foreign graduate outcomes in New Zealand”

The post New Zealand: Updated visa rejection rates will influence English requirements for 2018 appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

Diplomatic tensions between the US and Turkey have spilled into the open this week. On Sunday, 8 October, the US government took the extraordinary decision to suspend all processing of all non-immigrant visas in Turkey – effectively halting processing for all student visas along with other temporary visitor visa classes. Hours later, Turkey announced its own travel restrictions for US visitors with an announcement on Monday (9 October) indicating that it too would suspend visa processing at its diplomatic posts in the US.

The US government statement from 8 October said, “Recent events have forced the United States Government to reassess the commitment of the Government of Turkey to the security of US Mission facilities and personnel. In order to minimize the number of visitors to our Embassy and Consulates while this assessment proceeds, effective immediately we have suspended all non-immigrant visa services at all US diplomatic facilities in Turkey.”

The suspension follows the arrest last week of a Turkish national employed at the US consulate in Istanbul. The Turkish government alleges that the employee has ties to Fethullah Gülen, an exiled Turkish cleric and political figure who is in turn alleged to have been behind the failed 2016 coup attempt in Turkey.

Turkish officials have since ordered the question of another US consulate official as a suspect in an unspecified case.

The rhetoric has been hot on both sides in the early days of this week, but there have been signs too that cooler heads are starting to prevail. Speaking at a news conference while on a state visit to Ukraine on Monday, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said, “Before anything else, this decision is very saddening. The implementation of a decision by the US ambassador in Ankara is very saddening. Turkey is a state of law, not a tribal state.”

US Ambassador John Bass explains the thinking behind the decision to suspend visa processing in the following 9 October video statement, in which he is careful to note that, “This suspension of services is not a visa ban on Turkish citizens; it is a suspension of our consideration of new visa applications. If you have a valid visa, you can still travel to the United States. If you want to apply for a visa at another US embassy or consulate outside of Turkey, you are free to do so.”

Ambassador John Bass’ statement on the suspension of visa services in Turkey

Just as these more recent statements reflect an attempt to prevent a further escalation of diplomatic tensions, currency markets began to correct late Monday after an initial “flash crash” for the Turkish lira. The Turkish currency was off sharply against the US dollar in overnight trading Sunday, and lost roughly 6% of its value almost immediately. There were signs of a market correction, however, as world markets recovered the following day from the initial surprise of the visa suspension.

The Turkish lira fell off sharply in overnight trading over 8–9 October. Source: Thomson Reuters

Even so, the events of the week represent a low-water mark in US-Turkey relations. “In terms of bilateral relations between Turkey and the US, we have now hit rock bottom,” said international relations expert Oguz Demir. “This decision by the US affects Turkish citizens directly and aims for them to question the Turkish government’s actions. For the first time the US has made a move that will cause difficulties for the Turkish society.”

US a key destination

The move to suspend visa services in Turkey hits close to home for Turkish students, families, and counsellors. The US remains a leading destination for Turkish students, and is generally noted as a second most-popular choice, after only the UK.

The Institute of International Education has Turkey as the 13th-largest sending market for the US as of 2015/16, with just under 10,700 students enrolled that year.

The question now will be how long the diplomatic face-off between these important sending and destination countries will last. If it subsides quickly, we can expect little disruption in the flow of students. A worse case scenario is if the suspension of visa processing drags on for weeks or months with no clear end in sight. In that event, Turkish students who had planned to study in the US as early as January 2018 will certainly be forced to delay their studies or consider an alternate destination.

For additional background, please see:

• “From the field: A closer look at the Turkish outbound market”
• &�Բ�����;“Keys to the market: Turkey”
• &�Բ�����;“The relationship between currency exchange and student mobility”

The post US suspends visa processing in Turkey appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

The following summary recaps the most-popular items and most-important market developments covered on ���Ϲ��� Monitor throughout 2016.

The year in visas

We saw a number of key developments through 2016 with respect to student visa processing, post-study work rights, and immigration after graduation, and, as always, these items were of keen interest to ���Ϲ��� Monitor readers.

We started the year with early signs from Canada that the newly elected federal government was prepared to ease the citizenship process for international graduates, and indeed Canadian policy in this respect was formalised with an overhaul of key immigration programmes for foreign graduates late in the year.

In July, the same month in which Australia’s simplified student visa framework came into effect, Canada also offered a surprise announcement on visa processing for conditional admissions files.

And meanwhile in the US, we saw two long-awaited policy announcements from the Student and Exchange Visitor Program: the first on conditional admissions and another on visa processing for pathway programmes.

Not to be outdone, the European Union also eased visa rules for non-EU students this year. And, in keeping with its increasing emphasis on international student recruitment, China also expanded work rights for foreign students.

Continued growth for leading destinations

The US hosted more than one million students, Canada grew again, and education exports in Australia surpassed AUS$20 billion – a milestone the country celebrating by releasing a very impressive and comprehensive ten-year blueprint for further growth.

But the headlines for much of this year belonged to another traditional leader: the UK.

What’s that you say?

In a move that surprised observers around the world, rocked currency rates and stock exchanges, and ran against pollsters’ projections, UK voters opted for a Brexit – an exit from the European Union – in a 23 June referendum vote.

The country, including the international education sector, has faced considerable uncertainty in the months since. Student surveys leading up to the referendum suggested that a vote to leave would make the UK a less attractive destination both for European students and for those outside the EU, and indeed earlier this month we saw some early indications of a drop in EU enrolment for the coming academic year.

Late in the year, the Brexit vote was overshadowed by the equally surprising victory of Donald Trump in the US presidential election. It is hard to measure, but also hard to understate, the impact of such developments on the attractiveness of a given study destination. In the lead-up to the US election, we explored the broad issue of perception and its links to international student mobility in another widely read item this year.

Hey, big sender

We spent much of 2016 tracking major shifts in some of the world’s most important sending markets, including slowing outbound growth in China, a significant contraction in the landmark Saudi scholarship programme, and corresponding scholarship and foreign exchange constraints in Nigeria.

These developments helped to fuel one of the more important underlying trends in international education for 2016: an increasing drive towards diversifying international enrolment. We saw a greater emphasis on emerging markets throughout the year as a result – a trend that we can only anticipate will extend into 2017.

How we connect now

Online messaging services came more to the fore this year, and, along with institutional websites and social channels, we can anticipate that online channels will continue to play a greater role in international student recruitment going forward.

This point was reinforced this year by new research that mapped the most influential channels for reaching prospective students as well as the key factors in and influencers of student decision-making.

These studies join a growing body of research evidence that provides important, and increasingly nuanced, insights into how prospective students make decisions around study abroad.

Looking ahead

We gather such observations, however, in a time of profound change for teaching and learning. Online learning achieved a new type of critical mass in 2016, and we continue to see new models and new providers entering the online space.

Language learning is being similarly influenced by technology, and we note a growing emphasis on transnational education as well.

For now, let us conclude where we often begin our thinking about international student mobility: with the big picture. The competitive landscape of international education continued to shift in 2016, with a growing role for regional destinations and some significant growth for important emerging destinations, including China and Russia. There is every indication that we can expect this broad pattern of expanding regional mobility and shifting destination share to continue into the new year.

As always, thank you for reading along with us this year and we look forward to bringing you more news and insights for international student recruitment in 2017.

The post Looking back on 2016: The year in review appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.