Australian universities have so far faced fewer challenges than English-language training (ELICOS) and vocational education providers in the wake of more restrictive policy settings for the international education sector. But this seems to be changing, not least because the volume of students coming from their number one market, China, is falling.

Fully three-quarters of Chinese students in Australia are in higher education. Department of Home Affairs data shows compared with February 2025. This is on the heels of previous decreases over the past couple of years.

As Chinese demand softens for study in Australia, interest from several South Asian markets has been increasing or stable over the past five years. This does not offset declining Chinese demand, however, largely because in contrast to very high visa approval rates for Chinese university students, students from emerging markets such as Bhutan, Sri Lanka, India, and Nepal face a much greater chance of having their visa refused.

Therefore, higher demand from some South Asian markets is not making up for lower Chinese enrolments. Rather, it is being stopped at the border.

More visa rejections in February 2026 than in any year of tracking data

In February 2026, one out of every three students applying to an Australian university . This monthly refusal average (32.5%) was the most significant in 21 years of tracking, and it was spiked by incredibly high rejections of students from Nepal (65%), Bangladesh (51%), India (40%), Sri Lanka (38%), and Bhutan (36%). This compares to a refusal rate of about 3.5% for Chinese students applying to an Australian university.

A depressor on diversification

Australian universities have long known that they need to rely less on China for enrolments. But a number of factors are making this very hard to do, including:

• Many of their top 10 markets – including India, Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan – are experiencing visa rejection rates of 30% or more.
• Many of these markets are price-sensitive, and thus especially affected by record-high and non-refundable visa application fees and financial requirements.

The pathway to higher education is being squeezed

In addition, several important emerging markets in Southeast Asia, such as Thailand, are characterised by very low English proficiency. Many Thai students (28%) begin in ELICOS to improve their English and then progress to higher education. Yet in February 2026, 43.5% of Thai visa applications for ELICOS study were rejected, narrowing the pipeline of Thai students into higher education.

Other implications of high visa refusal rates

As part of an ongoing mission to (1) weed out non-genuine students from entering the country and (2) disadvantage institutions considered to be at high risk of recruiting those students, the Australian government has a system that assigns institutions into one of three categories of risk. Those determinations are mostly based on student visa outcomes – especially visa refusal rates due to fraud (40%) or other reasons (10%).

The record-high spike in visa refusals in February 2026 will bump some universities into a Level 2 or 3 risk category. This will require them to secure more documentation from students (e.g., English-language test scores, financial means) to prove those students are genuine, and it means that new prospective students’ visa applications will be processed more slowly. All this means that on top of lower-than-expected enrolments and potentially weaker standing in key origin markets, those institutions will:

(1) Need more administrative staff time to try to help prospects submit more comprehensive documentation.
(2) See a higher volume of students who choose another option (i.e., another institution or destination) due to frustration with long visa processing wait times.
(3) Be more challenged to execute effective recruitment strategies in key markets due to overloaded resources and finances.
(4) Be less able to reduce reliance on their top market, China.

To make matters worse, when a visa submitted offshore is refused, the student must reapply if they want another chance. This would mean that on top of paying the first non-refundable visa application fee – currently AU$2,000 – they would have to lay out that amount of money again, with no guarantee of their second application being approved. This alone severely hampers Australia institutions’ ability to persuade an applicant to try again with better documentation.

Peak bodies react

The International Education Association of Australia (IEAA) is calling for a freeze on changes to immigration risk ratings at the next scheduled evidence level review in September 2026 because of the surge in visa rejections. Because refusals compose 50% of the criteria on which institutions are categorised, a volume of refusals can force an otherwise high-performing institution into a higher risk category.

In addition, Visa HQ reports that:

“Universities Australia is urging the government to publish weekly refusal dashboards so providers can intervene early with extra document checks and GTE coaching [Genuine Temporary Entrant] rather than lose applicants outright. In the short term, institutions recruiting heavily from India, Nepal and Bangladesh will need emergency marketing in lower-risk regions such as Southeast Asia and Latin America to keep 2027 pipelines alive.”

ELICOS and VET representatives have so far been unable to persuade the government of the growing existential threat to their operations as a result of current policy directions. It remains to be seen if the more recent pressure on higher education can create a different urgency around the serious challenges the sector is facing today.

Key facts

• In 2024/25, education exports amounted to AU$53.6 billion (US$37.8 billion), according to the , divided between tuition income and students’ spending in the Australian economy. This means that multiple business sectors outside of education reap the benefits of international student spending in the country.

• Almost three-quarters (72%) of the total economic value is from higher education enrolments.

• More than half (58%) of the total came from Australia’s top five markets: China, India, Nepal, Vietnam, and Colombia.

• Visa applications from Indian students fell -33% between 2023/24 and 2024/25, and the number fell by -10% from Nepal.

• Visa refusals for India and Nepal were 40% and 65% in February 2026.

• Nearly one-fifth of international students begin in ELICOS or VET

For additional background, please see:

• “Australia: Latest enrolment data challenges the government’s assertion of stability for international education this year”