Visa rejections climb in the US for international students from key markets including India
- US Department of State data shows that students from African and South Asian countries are substantially more likely to be denied an F-1 student visa than those in other regions
- The overall F-1 visa denial rate rose to a 10-year high in 2025, with the increase driven by several country-level denial rates of over 70% or even 80%
- The top growth markets for US higher institutions (Nepal, Ghana, and Pakistan) are also ones where visa rejection rates are surging
- Most ominously for US colleges, 61% of Indian applicants were refused an F-1 visa in 2025
- India is the top contributor of international students, OPT participants, and H1-B workers in the US
A new report from Shorelight called , reveals (1) that record-high numbers of prospective international student are having their F-1 visa applications refused and (2) that refusals are “structurally concentrated in specific regions.” The report’s data shows that students from some countries – all in the Global South – are denied visas far more often than applicants from Europe, Canada, or South America.
The report continues Shorelight’s commitment, which began in 2023 in partnership with the Presidents’ Alliance on Higher Education and Immigration, to acquiring and analysing F-1 visa denial data. It is based on annual data obtained via a public information request to the US Department of State.
Refusals higher than in the pandemic
More than a third of all F-1 visas (35%) were refused in 2025, up from 31% in 2024 and 23% in 2015
The extremes on either point of this average are sharp. For Europe, the refusal rate is 9%. For Africa and Asia, it is 64% and 41%, respectively. The chart below shows the persistently low rate of rejection over 10 years for European students compared with students from elsewhere in the world.
Surging rejection rates for African students
Over 10 years, refusals for African applicants have risen by 33%. In 2015, more than half of African applicants had their F-1 visa application approved. In 2025, nearly two-thirds were rejected.
Students from some African countries are especially likely to be denied, with at least 80% of applicants from Sierra Leone, Somalia, Benin, and Burkina Faso turned away last year.
A record-high refusal rate also applied to applications from Ghana: 81% in 2025 versus 72% in 2024. Ghana – one of the safest and most stable countries in West Africa – has been a very important emerging market for US institutions in recent years. In 2024/25, according to the IIE’s Open Doors data, there were 12,825 Ghanaian students in the US, a +36.5% rise over the previous year. This was an even higher rate of growth than that from Nigeria (+9.1%), which has been the top African sender of students to the US for several years.
In 2024/25, there were 21,850 Nigerian students in US higher education, but next year will tell a different story: Nigeria is on the list of countries on the Trump administration’s travel ban list. This means that Nigerian students currently cannot even apply to the US, let alone stand a shot of being approved for a visa. In addition, Nigerian students in the US hoping to switch to Optional Practical Training (OPT) aren’t currently able to, as the immigration department has placed an indefinite hold on their applications. This means they cannot work after finishing their studies.
Keystone Education Group reports that “Nigerian student search interest in the USA has dropped more than -50% since the visa processing freeze announcement on 17 December 2025.” Keystone found that Nigerian interest is shifting mainly to France (+40%), Italy (+33%), Australia (+21), and China (+17%).
Refusals now common for South Asian students
Like African students, South Asian students are increasingly aware that simply being from their country means they are less likely to receive an F-1 visa than students from other regions. Indian students – who compose the largest segment of the international student body in the US – are no exception. The rejection rate for Indian students rose from 53% in 2024 to 61% in 2025.
As a source market, India has been growing over time – up +10% in 2024/25 after an expansion of +23% in 2023/24, but this trend is now reversing.
Similarly, visa denials for Nepali students rose from 59% in 2024 to 81% in 2025. Last year, Nepal was the sixth largest origin market for US institutions, growing by +48% in 2024/25 over 2023/24 – the most significant jump of any top 20 market for the US.
Students from Bangladesh and Pakistan are also much more likely to be refused than approved for an F-1 visa (73% and 71% rejection rate, respectively), and this trend has intensified over the past year.
European students fare much better
Over 9 in 10 European students were approved for an F-1 visa in 2025.
The problem is that European countries contain a relatively small recruitment pool. For example, though six European countries – the UK, Türkiye, Spain, Germany, France, and Italy – are top-20 source countries for US colleges, they collectively compose less than 6% of international enrolments. In addition, they are not high-growth markets (see chart below); they will not offset declining enrolments from Africa and Asia.
Lower Indian demand has profound implications for the US economy
Indians represent 30% of all foreign enrolments in the US, and they are mostly in graduate programmes. But last year, Indian graduate enrolments fell by -9.5% – a serious decline made even starker because it followed +18.5% growth the previous year.
If Indian demand declines further because of high visa refusal rates or restrictions on the OPT and H-1B work streams, there will be profound domino effects. Consider:
- Indian students contribute over 70% of enrolments in master’s and PhD-level STEM (science, technology, engineering, and math) programmes.
- Nearly half of STEM-OPT participants are Indian.
- Close to 75% of all H-1B work visas are awarded to Indians, mainly for positions in the tech sector.
- Nearly a quarter (23%) of tech workers in Silicon Valley with a bachelor’s degree or higher are Indian-born (including the current CEOs of Google, Microsoft, and IBM).
- Indian-born doctors are the largest segment of immigrant doctors in the US.
The explains what could happen if Indian students choose to go elsewhere to study and work in STEM fields:
“The broader impact on the US could be severe: hospitals facing doctor shortages, universities struggling to attract STEM students, and start-ups without the lobbying muscle of Google or Amazon are likely to be hit hardest.”
The future impact of structural bias in F-1 visa processing
The Shorelight report concludes:
“With student visa refusals in India climbing up to 60%, we’re not just denying students, we’re cutting off a critical talent pipeline for US universities, employers, and the economy. Without expanding opportunities in other high-growth regions, we’re creating a self-inflicted talent shortage. In a global race for skilled workers, the US cannot afford to turn away the very students who fuel our research, workforce, and competitiveness.”
Asked by Inside Higher Ed to comment on Shorelight’s determination that visa approvals are more determined by applicants’ home countries than by merit, the US State Department said: “All visa applications are reviewed on a case-by-case basis, in accordance with US law, and adjudicated based on the facts and circumstances of the individual case.”
Shorelight’s recommendations
Within the Shorelight report are “evidence-based solutions to address this challenge [of structural bias in F-1 visa processing],” including a call for “greater transparency in denials, standardised financial guidance, specialised training for high-refusal consulates, dual-intent for F-1 visas, and codifying OPT.” The full report .
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