The report continues Shorelight’s commitment, which began in 2023 in partnership with the Presidents’ Alliance on Higher Education and Immigration, to acquiring and analysing F-1 visa denial data. It is based on annual data obtained via a public information request to the US Department of State.

Refusals higher than in the pandemic

More than a third of all F-1 visas (35%) were refused in 2025, up from 31% in 2024 and 23% in 2015

The extremes on either point of this average are sharp. For Europe, the refusal rate is 9%. For Africa and Asia, it is 64% and 41%, respectively. The chart below shows the persistently low rate of rejection over 10 years for European students compared with students from elsewhere in the world.

Surging rejection rates for African students

In 2015, more than half of African applicants had their F-1 visa application approved. In 2025, nearly two-thirds were rejected. Over 10 years, refusals for African applicants have risen by 33%.

Students from some African countries are especially likely to be denied, with at least 80% of applicants from Sierra Leone, Somalia, Benin, and Burkina Faso turned away last year.

A record-high refusal rate also applied to applications from Ghana: 81% in 2025 versus 72% in 2024. Ghana – one of the safest and most stable countries in West Africa – has been a very important emerging market for US institutions in recent years. In 2024/25, according to the IIE’s Open Doors data, there were 12,825 Ghanaian students in the US, a +36.5% rise over the previous year. This was an even higher rate of growth than that from Nigeria (+9.1%), which has been the top African sender of students to the US for several years.

In 2024/25, there were 21,850 Nigerian students in US higher education, but next year will tell a different story: Nigeria is on the Trump administration’s travel ban list. This means that Nigerian students currently cannot even apply to the US, let alone have a shot of being approved for a visa. In addition, Nigerian students in the US hoping to switch to Optional Practical Training (OPT) aren’t currently able to, as the immigration department has placed an indefinite hold on their applications. This means they cannot work after finishing their studies.

Keystone Education Group reports that “Nigerian student search interest in the USA has dropped more than -50% since the visa processing freeze announcement on 17 December 2025.” Keystone found that Nigerian interest is shifting mainly to France (+40%), Italy (+33%), Australia (+21), and China (+17%).

Refusals now common for South Asian students

Like African students, South Asian students are increasingly aware that simply being from their country means they are less likely to receive an F-1 visa than students from other regions. Indian students – who compose the largest segment of the international student body in the US – are no exception. The rejection rate for Indian students rose from 53% in 2024 to 61% in 2025.

As a source market, India has been growing over time – up +10% in 2024/25 after an expansion of +23% in 2023/24, but this trend is now reversing.

Similarly, visa denials for Nepali students rose from 59% in 2024 to 81% in 2025. Last year, Nepal was the sixth largest origin market for US institutions, growing by +48% in 2024/25 over 2023/24 – the most significant jump of any top 20 market for the US.

Students from Bangladesh and Pakistan are also much more likely to be refused than approved for an F-1 visa (73% and 71% rejection rate, respectively), and this trend has intensified over the past year.

European students fare much better

Over 9 in 10 European students were approved for an F-1 visa in 2025.

The problem is that European countries contain a relatively small recruitment pool. For example, though six European countries – the UK, Türkiye, Spain, Germany, France, and Italy – are top-20 source countries for US colleges, they collectively compose less than 6% of international enrolments. In addition, they are not high-growth markets (see chart below); they will not offset declining enrolments from Africa and Asia.

Lower Indian demand has profound implications for the US economy

Indians represent 30% of all foreign enrolments in the US, and they are mostly in graduate programmes. But last year, Indian graduate enrolments fell by -9.5% – a serious decline made even starker because it followed +18.5% growth the previous year.

If Indian demand declines further because of high visa refusal rates or restrictions on the OPT and H-1B work streams, there will be profound domino effects. Consider:

• Indian students contribute over 70% of enrolments in master’s and PhD-level STEM (science, technology, engineering, and math) programmes.
• Nearly half of STEM-OPT participants are Indian.
• Close to 75% of all H-1B work visas are awarded to Indians, mainly for positions in the tech sector.
• Nearly a quarter (23%) of tech workers in Silicon Valley with a bachelor’s degree or higher are Indian-born (including the current CEOs of Google, Microsoft, and IBM).
• Indian-born doctors are the largest segment of immigrant doctors in the US.

The explains what could happen if Indian students choose to go elsewhere to study and work in STEM fields:

“The broader impact on the US could be severe: hospitals facing doctor shortages, universities struggling to attract STEM students, and start-ups without the lobbying muscle of Google or Amazon are likely to be hit hardest.”

The future impact of structural bias in F-1 visa processing

The Shorelight report concludes:

“With student visa refusals in India climbing up to 60%, we’re not just denying students, we’re cutting off a critical talent pipeline for US universities, employers, and the economy. Without expanding opportunities in other high-growth regions, we’re creating a self-inflicted talent shortage. In a global race for skilled workers, the US cannot afford to turn away the very students who fuel our research, workforce, and competitiveness.”

Asked by Inside Higher Ed to comment on Shorelight’s determination that visa approvals are more determined by applicants’ home countries than by merit, the US State Department said: “All visa applications are reviewed on a case-by-case basis, in accordance with US law, and adjudicated based on the facts and circumstances of the individual case.”

Shorelight’s recommendations

Within the Shorelight report are “evidence-based solutions to address this challenge [of structural bias in F-1 visa processing],” including a call for “greater transparency in denials, standardised financial guidance, specialised training for high-refusal consulates, dual-intent for F-1 visas, and codifying OPT.” The full report .

For additional background, please see:


• “US: Student visa issuances fell by -36% in summer 2025; OPT uncertainty among factors affecting international student demand”
• “Australia: Student visa refusal rates reach record high amid weakening demand from China”

The post Visa rejections climb in the US for international students from key markets including India appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

In many ways this extends the story we found in the actual data for 2024, the first year under Canada’s current enrolment cap on new foreign enrolments and a year in which:

• The number of new study permits issued fell by -48% compared to 2023
• The total volume of study permit applications fell by nearly a third compared to 2023
• The overall approval rate for the year fell to 48% (from nearly 60% the year before)

We do not yet have comparable data for 2025, but the early indicators are that those trends are continuing – and in some ways deepening – into this year.

First, the initial IRCC data on the number of applications processed for new study permit applications points to a troubling decline in overall application volumes for the first half of 2025.

In the first two quarters of 2024, IRCC processed 290,635 new study permit applications, or just over half of the total number of applications received for that year.

The IRCC data for year-to-date 2025, however, indicates that only 143,485 new study permit applications were processed between January and June of this year. That represents a roughly -50% decline in overall application volumes over the first two quarters of 2025.

If the same distribution of new study permit applications from 2024 plays out again this year, that could mean that total application volumes will drop to something in the range of 290,000 student files for 2025, down from just under 580,000 in 2024 and just over 860,000 in 2023.

And if approval rates remain around 2024 levels – with roughly half of all applications refused – then that could mean that the number of new study permits granted for the year could fall significantly below 2024 levels. And that will also put them considerably below the official enrolment cap for 2025.

Why are rejection rates climbing?

An analysis from ApplyBoard finds that in 2024 the most common refusal reason cited by visa officers was that the officer was unconvinced the applicant would leave Canada at the end of their stay. “The extensive use of this reason last year suggests that many applicants are perceived as having permanent residency as their primary purpose, instead of study,” says ApplyBoard.

The other major factor in rising rejection rates appears to be concern, on the part of visa officers, that applicants may not have access to sufficient financial resources. The increasing citation of this reason for refusal may in turn be tied to increases in the financial requirements thresholds in Canada over the last 18 months.

Study permit applicants are expected to demonstrate that they have sufficient funds to pay for tuition fees for their planned programme of study as well as living expenses while in Canada. On 1 January 2024, the cost of living requirement for a single study permit applicant was raised to CDN$20,635, a notable increase from their previous threshold of CDN$10,000 that had been in place for roughly 20 years up to that point. A further increase , raising the threshold for a single applicant to CDN$22,895.

A related examination of Q1 and Q2 data for 2025 by indicates that approval rates improved over the first half of the year. That analysis finds, however, that approval rates remain variable by sending market. Applications from China, for example, are now trending at above 65% approval rates whereas rejection rates for Indian applicants continue to rise.

BorderPass adds, “One thing is clear: institutions prioritising quality and readiness are winning. Schools using application intelligence – whether by tightening documentation review, prioritising travel-readiness, or working with legally backed partners – are seeing dramatically better outcomes.”

BorderPass also points out that approval rates vary by institution type, explaining that, “When we looked at the top 20 high-volume universities and 20 high-volume colleges across Canada, the contrast between universities and colleges was clear…Universities outperform colleges consistently (averaging [approval rates of] 45–59% vs. 23–33%).” That analysis finds as well that approval rates for universities are trending upward through the first half of 2025 (as illustrated in the chart below) whereas those for colleges remain more volatile.

For additional background, please see:

• “Measuring the impacts of the first full year of Canada’s foreign student enrolment cap“
• “Is Canada valued more as a ‘pathway to immigration’ or as a destination for education?“
• “Canada announces international student enrolment cap levels for 2025“

The post Canada: How is study permit processing taking shape this year? appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

The 2024-25 INTO Arrival survey was conducted among 2,261 international students from over 100 countries enrolling in universities in the UK and US. The survey revealed that in addition to visa issues, barriers to study abroad include financial concerns related to unpredictable costs of living and studying.

Visa delays have several negative impacts

The survey found that:

• One in five (21%) students reported visa appointment and processing delays as the top reason for postponing their confirmation of university placement, rising to 28% in South Asia.
• Of students who missed orientation services offered by their institution, 45% said that visa issues were the reason.

Of all students who reported visa delays, about 20% said visa delays added at least a month to the timing of their response to an admissions offer.

These findings indicate that many students’ journeys to enrolment – and first impressions of their institution – are poorer because of unreliable visa processes outside of their control.

INTO CEO John Sykes said:

“These findings serve as a powerful message for governments, educational authorities, and universities to work together in addressing visa delays, ensuring students are supported in their aspirations to study abroad. At INTO, we are dedicated to overcoming these challenges, driving positive change in international education, and continuing to create transformative opportunities for students to succeed in an increasingly interconnected world.” 

Students are applying to more institutions in more destinations

The work of admissions staff is complicated by students postponing their studies because of visa delays. In addition, staff are dealing with more unpredictability than ever due to a growing trend of students applying to multiple institutions.

In 2024/25, students enrolling in INTO-partnered UK universities said they had applied on average to +21% more higher education institutions than had those who had enrolled in 2022/23. Similarly, surveyed international graduate students applying to US universities in 2024/25 applied to 23% more institutions in 2024/25 than those applying the previous year.

“Waiting for offers from other institutions” was the second-most cited reason for delaying a confirmation of enrolment in the INTO survey.

And it becomes increasingly clear that, even as students are applying to more institutions, they are also exploring options in a wider range of study destinations.

The survey report adds:

“Over half of students considered alternative destinations before choosing the UK or US, with over 40% of those considering alternatives beyond the traditional “Big 4”— the UK, US, Canada, and Australia. Europe, in particular, remained a strong contender across all regions. This trend highlights a rise in students exploring options closer to home to benefit from lower study costs and cultural proximity, reflecting the increasing competitiveness of global education markets.

Beyond Europe, student preferences also followed similar regional patterns identified in INTO’s 2024 Global Agent Survey. Students from East Asia were most likely to consider Singapore and Malaysia, while students from the Middle East and North Africa mainly looked to the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, and students from the China, Hong Kong, and Macau region gravitated towards Hong Kong.”

Financial concerns loom large for students

The survey revealed the high degree of stress many international students feel because they don’t have a good sense of how much it will cost to study abroad. Close to half (44%) of surveyed students said that trying to understand tuition fees and cost of living is a “moderately” or “extremely” stressful aspect of their path towards enrolment.

INTO researchers advise:

“Universities can seek to address this challenge by reviewing the clarity in which total cost of studies (including all aspects of cost of living) are communicated, particularly when this might be complicated by how individuals can interpret course structure (e.g., credits) and time it’s likely to take to complete a degree.”

Uncertainty about work rights is another stress

Unpredictable and shifting immigration policies affect not only prospective international students, but also current students. In Canada, for example, many current international students have experienced significant stress in the past year due to not knowing if they were still eligible for work rights and permanent residency. In the US, the situation was stable in 2024, but it is unclear how President Trump may approach international students and legal migration in 2025. Any changes to work rights – e.g., Optional Practical Training (OPT) – would have a significant impact. The INTO survey found that:

• “Two-thirds of graduate students surveyed (66%) intend to secure employment opportunities afforded by OPT”
• One-third of undergraduate students (33%) also indicated a desire to use OPT after graduation.”

Reassurance and advice are crucial

In today’s unsettled global environment, immigration is a hot-button and polarising issue that profoundly affects international students hoping to study in one of the Big Four destinations. This is a year in which to prioritise communications with students and agents, check the institutional website to ensure it offers current and helpful information, and provide prospective students with useful information on visa processes, work rights, and costs of studying and living.

For additional information, please see:

• “Survey shows new visa rules are encouraging international students to apply to more destinations”
• “How to improve your communications with international students”
• “US: International education sector braces as a second Trump presidency takes shape”

The post Survey highlights the disruptive effects of visa delays on international students appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

We came to expect an announcement every week or two – whether it was news of an immediate cap on new study permits, a massive visa application fee increase, higher financial requirements for students, amendments to work rights, or the withdrawal of most dependants’ permission to accompany students.

The question is: why? Why would governments act to stem the flow of bright international students capable of alleviating critical skills shortages and declining economic productivity? What ended a post-pandemic enthusiasm for welcoming record-high numbers of foreign students?

The answer lies in declining public support for immigration amidst persistent economic pressures and a global migration crisis that is overwhelming critical infrastructure such as healthcare systems and housing.

A quick shift in priorities

The more restrictive policies signal that the cultural and economic value of international students is now secondary to an urgent new priority for elected governments in many advanced economies: reducing migration at seemingly any cost.

Among policy makers, there appears to be little memory of – or concern about – the devastating toll of plummeting international student numbers during the COVID-19 pandemic. Interrupted student mobility flows when borders were closed impacted not only the revenues and staff of education providers, but also the fortunes of whole communities and other business sectors.

When borders reopened, governments enacted all manner of policies to attract new international students, knowing full well that billions of dollars would return to their economies as a result. Foreign enrolments quickly surged to record-high levels in Australia (nearly 800,000 in 2023), Canada (over 1 million in 2023), and the UK (nearly 700,000 in higher education alone in 2021/22).

But in tandem with these new peaks, more and more stories appeared in national media outlets about a disturbing trend: growing numbers of people in major cities in Australia, Canada, the UK, and elsewhere are struggling to access affordable housing and other vital services, including healthcare. And all this amidst a backdrop of surging inflation, rising costs of living, and economic uncertainty.

These factors combined for a potent political cocktail that has made immigration a hot-button electoral issue in leading study abroad destinations. For example, in Canada, 50% of Canadians responding to a survey conducted by Leger in February 2024 said that “there are too many new immigrants in Canada” — a proportion that more than doubled over January 2023. This stands in sharp contrast to a long-standing belief in previous decades among most Canadians that immigration is a public good.

A global crisis of movement

The world is facing what some have termed a global migration crisis, characterised by historically high numbers of people attempting to cross borders in search of safety and opportunity. The crisis stems from a horrible combination of wars, natural disasters, and crumbling economies. Any or all of these elements are present in dozens of countries, especially in the Global South (a designation generally understood to contain large swaths of Africa, Latin America, and Asia). Millions of people in affected regions face difficult or unsafe circumstances, and so many are driven to seek temporary or permanent settlement elsewhere.

UNESCO figures indicate that there were 281 million international migrants as of 2020 (the latest year for which global data has been compiled). Of that total, 169 million were labour migrants and 117 million were displaced people (mostly asylum and refugee claimants).

International students, who fall under the category of “temporary migrants,” currently number about 8 million worldwide. This segment is a drop in the bucket, even a rounding error, when you consider the total migrant population of over 280 million people. But international students are nevertheless caught up in the same migration politics. They are explicitly counted in net migration figures in the UK, for example, and in temporary migration figures in Canada.

What is to be done?

There is little debate about the following facts:

1. Rising numbers of people moving from country to country do place pressure on local services, labour markets, and housing markets.
   
2. There remains an undersupply of housing and healthcare services – and persistent concerns about rising costs of living – in many top destinations for international students.
   
3. Growing segments of the public in those countries want to see immigration levels reduced. This has fuelled not only the rise of ultra-nationalist and/or far-right movements, but also more restrictive immigration policies in liberal democracies such as Australia, Canada, and the UK.
   
4. What is sometimes known as the “social licence” afforded to the international education sector has been eroded due to shifts in public support for immigration, media coverage of unethical practices on the part of a small segment of education providers and agents, and a perception in some circles that the sector is more concerned with revenues than with the well-being of international students.

Across our industry, we all have a role to play in restoring the standing of international education in the eyes of government and the public. The way forward includes a renewed commitment to providing an outstanding study experience to all students: in the classroom, through student services, by securing more and better accommodation, and by improving graduate outcomes.

It will be crucial to:

• Build stronger links between recruitment and housing availability;
• Align recruitment with labour market needs;
• Work in collaboration with industry and other stakeholders to ensure improved career outcomes for international students, both in their study destinations and at home;
• Improve communications with government stakeholders and the public at large;
• Advocate for international student numbers to be tracked separately from net migration figures.

This has been a year in which global political and economic pressures have had a profound impact on international student mobility. Among the many important lessons to be drawn from 2024 is how vulnerable our sector can be to changes in policy and how critical it is to communicate the benefits and standards of international education to policy makers and other key stakeholders.

For additional background, please see:

• Join the (23 September 23 2024, London). A landmark one-day summit bringing together the industry’s senior leaders, policy makers, and experts, all focused on shaping the future of the international education sector.

The post Under pressure: How global migration and economic trends are impacting international education appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

Visa issuances to main applicants (as opposed to dependants) declined by just over 6% year-over-year and 10% compared to the historical peak from June 2023. The Home Office explains that, “Following a fall in numbers during the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of visas issued have subsequently increased sharply, reaching a peak of 498,626 in the year ending June 2023. The number of visas issued in the latest year are slightly lower than the peak, at 446,924.”

The decline appears to be strongly related to the January 2024 rule change that now prevents international students from bringing dependants with them during their studies in the UK, unless they are enrolled in postgraduate programmes with a research focus.

However, the relatively modest dip in visa issuances through March may foreshadow a more significant trend. As the Home Office earlier reported, there was a 44% decrease in study visa applications in the first three months of 2024, compared to the same period last year.

The downturn reported this year follows a period of considerable growth in visa volumes from 2016 on. That growth was closely tracked by a corresponding increase in the number of visas extended to accompanying dependants. The Home Office notes that, “In the year ending March 2024 there were 111,481 visas issued to student dependants, 25% fewer compared to the previous year but almost 7 times higher than in 2019…The number of dependants has grown at a faster rate than main applicants in recent years. The numbers peaked in the year ending March 2023 with around 3 dependants for every 10 main applicants. However, the number of main applicants and dependants have since fallen with dependants decreasing at a faster rate in the first quarter (January to March) of 2024. In the year ending March 2024, one-fifth (20%) of sponsored study visas were issued to dependants.”

We see that drop in dependant visas (in concert with the decrease in visas for main applicants) illustrated in the chart below.

As we have reported previously, much of that growth – and the more recent decline in study visas issued – can be traced to two key sending markets: India and Nigeria. The number of study visas issued to main applicants from India and Nigeria through March 2024 fell by 16% and 38% respectively, compared to the same period last year.

A significant majority of study visas for the UK are issued for graduate studies (66% of main applicants for the year ending March 2024), with another 25% issued for those enrolled in undergraduate programmes.

For additional background, please see:

• “UK: Home Office data finds a significant drop in student visa applications for first quarter of 2024“
• “UK to block dependants from accompanying international students as of January 2024“

The post Home Office data confirms downturn in UK visa issuances through Q1 2024 appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

The campaign points out that “a large number of F-1 student visa applicants are facing excessively long interview wait times, adjudication and processing delays, and a disproportionately high visa denial rate for those coming from Africa.”

As we reported recently, US government data reveals that, “More than a third of prospective international students applying to study in the US [in 2023] were turned away. The F-1 visa refusal rate surged to 36% in 2023 for a total of 253,355 refusals, higher even than in 2022. What’s more, the rate of refusal for student visas was nearly twice that of refusal for other types of visas.”

Those historically high refusal rates are particularly affecting students from the Global South, notably those from India and Africa.

And are also trending much longer this year, with reported waits of up to 100 or 350 days, or more, depending on the student’s country of origin. That severe bottleneck is now putting more students at risk of missing the start of the coming academic year.

A new report from points out that, “For many students, the few, tense minutes of a visa interview can define or confine their future.” It underscores as well that the process is especially challenging for African students: “The African continent…has by far the highest visa denial rate than any other world region…In 2022, the visa denial rates for central, eastern, western, and northern Africa ranged between 48% and 71%.” According to Shorelight’s analysis, that means that the US turned away just over 92,000 potential African students in the five years between 2018 and 2022. The report concludes that, “If the US is going to enrol an increasing diversity of students from all world regions, the issue of student visa denial rates will need to be addressed so that a visa never stands in the way of qualified students being able to study in the United States.”

The view from NAFSA

“Part of the issue is the sheer number of applicants that are coming in and the number of [interview slots available,” says Dr Fanta Aw, the CEO and Executive Director of NAFSA: Association of International Educators. “One of the things I’ve come to appreciate in our conversations with the Department of State is that there are several constraints they face. Staffing, for example. There are only so many counsellors available and only so many hours in the week they are working. Those specific limits on capacity are compounded by the fact that we need to help modernise our government agencies. There is a mindset that we look at what happened last year, we may make some adjustments here and there but we’re really not paying attention to what I call predictive analytics.” Essentially, what Dr Aw is pointing to is the need to plan more proactively to increase visa processing capacity in countries where there is particularly high and/or quickly growing demand.

That those capacity issues are now reflecting in longer wait times for visa appointments and higher rejection rates is in turn a reflection of increasing application volumes, and some important shifts in where those applications are coming from (in particular that greater numbers are coming from the Global South and especially from India and Africa). “When you see exponential increase in demand and yet your process has not evolved to catch up and to be responsive to that demand, that is why we are now seeing this bottleneck [in visa processing] that is getting worse.” She adds that the Department of State reports issuing more visas than ever before: “They are doing the best they can with the resources they have but relative to the demand it just doesn’t move the needle.”

The new campaign is clearly aimed at easing the process for students coming to the US in 2024/25, but it has a longer-term goal as well. “There are two goals of the campaign,” says Dr Aw. “One is that it is incredibly important for everyone’s benefit that there be more transparency in the process” – with the idea that students and institutions and stakeholders alike can understand better the variables that influence visa processing and the timing of the process. “More importantly, there needs to be a sense of urgency,” she continues, “that wherever they can build capacity, they are able to do so. We need to prioritise that. This is an effort to turn the attention of Congress. We’ve got to ensure we are not turning away such vast numbers of students. It’s not just that you lose those students for a year; it’s more significant than that. Because the word spreads among students that [the F-1 application process] is not something you should even try, and that has repercussions for the next admissions cycle and so on.”

“We are cautiously optimistic that [the campaign] can help some of the students to get here, but we also need to shed light on the urgency of this and get our Congress to get engaged.” International educators in the US can use to access a ready-to-send letter in support of the campaign.

For additional background, please see:

• “US study visa refusals reached record levels in 2023“
• “US stakeholders share priorities for a national international education strategy“
• “US: New coalition pushes for coordinated national strategy for international education“

The post US coalition urges Congress to take action to improve visa processing this year appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

As in Australia, the increasing rate of student visa refusal in the US appears to be exerting downward pressure on applications. Lower application volumes and a declining approval rate have combined to inform a -31% decrease in visa issuances between 2015 and 2023.

Mr Bier has calculated the effect of these trends on the broad US economy:

“It is important to understand that before a student can even apply for an F 1 visa they must already be accepted into a government‐approved university. This means that the US Department of State turned down 253,355 students who would have likely paid roughly $30,000 per year or $7.6 billion per year in tuition and living expenses. Over four years that number rises to $30.4 billion in lost economic benefits to the United States.”

To put that in context, last measured the economic impact of international students in the US in November 2023, at which point it explained that, “The over one million international students at US colleges and universities contributed more than US$40 billion to the US economy during the 2022-2023 academic year—up by nearly US$6.3 billion (almost 19%) compared to the prior academic year—and supported more than 368,000 jobs.”

What’s behind the increasing refusal rate?

While a number of factors are at play, Mr Bier notes that a particularly influential one may be the rise in Indian applicants. Those applicants received 29% of all visa issuances in 2023 and have historically been more likely than Chinese students to be refused a visa, which means that Indian student applications were likely extremely high in 2023 (though the US government has not released a breakdown of refusals by nationality).

Whatever the data-based reasons for the growing refusal rate, Mr Bier says that it is likely the extreme subjectivity US immigration officials can apply in student visa interviews more than any official immigration strategy that is driving the trend. He provides the example of Don Heflin, the head of the Consular Affairs division of India, who in 2022 explained how his team handled visa interviews:

“Bring [bank statements] just in case the vice consul asks, but we are looking at this less than we used to. We know Indian families usually find a way [to pay].… Mostly it’s about explaining why this school and this curriculum makes sense to you. It’s what in American English we call the Elevator Pitch. You’ll have a minute and a half to tell us why this [school] makes sense to you. Don’t walk up and recite something from memory about the campus, the student body, and how old the school is.… Listen, I have a lot of Indian friends. I know that your father may have told you where you were going to go to school and what you were going to study. That’s fine. Tell us what he told you. Show us that it makes sense for you.”

Mr Bier calls this practice “absurd” and expresses amazement that the US government would willingly pass up billions of dollars in revenue from potential students “just because they memorized their ‘elevator pitch’ on why they want to study computer science in Kansas. It’s totally irrelevant.”

He writes, “The administration needs to increase transparency about student visa denials and adopt a fair and uniform policy for reviews.”

Mr Bier’s sentiments bring to mind those of international education stakeholders in Australia, who are concerned about the subjectivity being applied by their country’s immigration officials when making decisions about which students will be allowed in.

While the US is the outlier of the “Big Four” destinations in not adjusting immigration settings to curb international student numbers this year, its current visa refusal rate nonetheless means that it, like Australia, Canada, and the UK, is becoming less accessible to many international students than in the past.

For additional background, please see:

• “Despite rising rejection rates, US student visa issuances now exceed pre-COVID levels”
• “US reports a significant spike in student visa refusals for 2022”

The post US study visa refusals reached record levels in 2023 appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

Should that rate of refusal continue, the number of students granted study visas in 2023/24 is expected to decrease by 91,715 compared with 2022/23, when 577,295 visas were granted – about a 15% reduction.

For comparison’s sake:

• 10% of visas were refused in 2018/19
• 8.5% were refused in 2021/22
• 14% were refused in 2022/23

Who is getting turned away?

The targeted nature of the Australian government’s immigration overhaul announced in December 2023 means that some applicants are much more likely to be approved than others. Students now have a higher burden of proof when applying due to measures including:

• Higher English-language requirements;
• A compulsory “Genuine Student Test” aimed at distinguishing and favouring those most likely to (1) have the primary purpose of studying rather than working and (2) contribute needed skills to the Australian economy.

In effect, students pursuing lower levels of credential are those most likely to be refused a visa. International Education Association of Australia CEO Phil Honeywood explains:

“The focus has been on winding back a large number of diploma-level vocational students doing courses such as diploma of leadership, and instead the primary focus is on students who can add skills to the Australian economy.”

Other elements of Australia’s new handling of its international sector include:

• Applying additional scrutiny to high-risk student applications;
• Cracking down on unscrupulous education providers;
• Bolstering the student visa integrity unit in the Department of Home Affairs to reduce misuse of Australia’s student visa system;
• Strengthening requirements for international education providers.

The additional scrutiny is driving higher visa refusal rates as immigration officials now have more tools at their disposal for weeding out non-genuine students. A Department of Home Affairs spokesperson said:

“The department has seen increasing levels of integrity concerns across the student visa program. The department received higher levels of fraudulent documents, fraud related to English language testing, non-genuine claims and non-genuine subsequent marriages being presented in student visa applications. The department will refuse a visa application to non-genuine applicants who do not meet regulatory requirements and where fraud is present.”

Education Minister Jason Clare commented: “The Albanese government’s migration strategy and the other integrity measures we’ve put in place send a clear message that we will act to prevent the exploitation of students and protect Australia’s reputation as a high-quality international education provider.”

Net migration falling

The new approach to internationalisation in Australia is also exerting downward pressure on net migration. This was the part of the government’s intention when drafting the policies. As in Canada, the surge of so many new international students in Australia in recent months has contributed to an affordable housing crisis, which has in turn weakened public support for accepting more immigrants.

MacroBusiness.com reports that “the latest monthly arrivals and departures data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) suggests that Australia’s net overseas migration (NOM) has passed its peak … as shown in the next chart, monthly net arrivals are finally falling from record highs.”

The next chart indicates that declining international student arrivals are driving the decline in net migration:

International education policies affect the entire economy

The past few months have seen governments in Australia, Canada, and the UK change immigration settings to affect the flow of international students across their borders. They have done so in very different ways:

• Canada’s approach includes a sweeping cap on the number of new study permits that will be granted for the next two years, as well as other measures;
• The UK no longer allows most international students to bring their dependants with them;
• Australia has taken a more targeted approach – using dozens of small tweaks that cumulatively discourage certain kinds of student, agent, and institution from misusing the system.

The new Department of Home Affairs data pointing to a likely 15% reduction in visa approvals for 2023/24 (if the current refusal rate holds) suggests that the Australian approach may result in a more modest, and more selective, reduction in new international students compared with what may happen in Canada and the UK.

In Canada, study permit processing has been suspended for many students – and that, alone, will reduce the number of students coming into the country this year, to say nothing of the effect of the two-year cap and other measures. In the UK, demand from students in top source markets is already softening in tandem with the new ban on student dependants.

But in Australia, the government seems to be balancing the huge economic value of international students with a need for greater integrity in the system. Both the policies themselves and government statements concerning them signal that new immigration rules are focused on discouraging non-genuine students – and not on dampening demand among all international students.

In the first three quarters of 2023, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, international education contributed AUS$34 billion to the Australian economy, up 68% in contrast to a 4.8% decline in other export categories. Universities Australia expects that sector’s final 2023 contribution will break the record set in 2019 (AUS$41 billion).

Commenting on the news, Chief Executive Catriona Jackson said:

“Education is the biggest export we don’t dig out of the ground. It makes us tens of billions of dollars each year, supports tens of thousands of jobs and helps pay for the essential services all Australians rely on. Beyond that, it makes us friends, acting as a bridge between nations and supporting regional stability which is only becoming more important in a fast-changing strategic environment.

Australia has developed a strong, competitive edge in the global battle for international students through our careful and strategic work over many decades. Any changes that restrict the movement of these people to our shores need to be weighed carefully against the enormous benefits they bring, during and after their studies.”

In Canada, international education has added CDN$22 billion dollars (USD$16.4 billion) to the economy in recent years, while the sector’s contribution has been measured as £41.9 billion (USD$53.2 billion) in the UK. In 2022/23, international students injected nearly US$38 billion to the US economy.

For additional background, please see:

• “Australia: New migration strategy ushers in tougher requirements for international students”

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