Prof Kapur says, “UK universities still provide the best education in the world, thanks in part to the premium tuition fees they earn from international students.” He suggests that without that revenue, the quality of UK institutions and the national competitiveness of the UK in the global economy would be significantly imperilled.

Today, we look at Prof Kapur’s assertion and explore what it means not just for the UK, but for other major study destinations with high numbers of top-ranked universities.

The importance of international student tuition

In an era where public universities in advanced societies such as Australia, Canada, the UK, and the US receive less government funding than in the past, elite institutions’ ability to deliver quality programmes, hire top professors, and maintain support staff is under pressure. Alternative revenue sources are essential. For many universities, international student tuition fees keep the most popular programmes running and well resourced. Mr Kapur, speaking of the situation in the UK, says:

“The role of international students in our universities is a national conversation we need to have. International students are not some sort of oddity or indulgence of our universities. They are now a fundamental feature of our system. Not only does it benefit the international students, it greatly benefits our domestic students, in addition to UK as a nation. Therefore, if we’re going to change it, we should do it knowingly after considering all the implications for our domestic students, for our universities, for our productivity as a nation.”

The correlation between innovation and international students

Highly ranked universities contribute a massive proportion of the scientific talent in the nation in which they are located. A great deal of these universities’ funding for elite faculty, cutting-edge programmes, and student services comes from the higher tuition fees that their international students pay.

Consider these statistics for the link between prestigious institutions and the proportion of international students they enrol:

• At Oxford University, come from countries outside the UK.
• At University of Melbourne, are from outside of Australia.
• At the University of Toronto and at McGill University, is composed of international students.
• At Harvard University, international students make up 27% of the total student population.

Now consider what new government policies and policy directions might mean for these institutions’ ability to remain as highly ranked as they are now – especially in a context where the share of Asian universities in top rankings is rapidly growing. For example:

• In the US, President Trump wants the proportion of international students at Harvard to nearly halve through a cap of 15%.
• In Canada, where caps have been applied primarily (and now exclusively) at the undergraduate level, the University of Toronto welcomed in 2024/25. experienced a 22% drop in new international applications in 2024/25, which will without doubt reduce the number of international enrolments in 2025/26. These are only two examples of losses across the entire Canadian university sector.

The example of McGill

McGill is by no means the only prestigious university to be facing problems as a result of government policies exerting downward pressure on international student enrolments. However, we can use it as a case study of what happens when a top-ranked university loses a significant proportion of its operating revenue due to declining international student numbers.

At McGill, the projected deficit for Fiscal Year 2025 is . This loss is due to several factors, including a range of provincial government policies that have cost McGill both and international students. : “Without corrective action, annual deficits will grow to $44 million in 2026, $61 million in 2027 and nearly $75 million in 2028.”

Were that to happen, says Mr Manfredi, it could trigger the government to remove the funding source called “subvention conditionnelle.” For McGill, this represents a portion of its annual grant representing close to $40 million. Mr Manfredi also says deepening deficits could trigger “further restrictions and an erosion of McGill’s autonomy.”

What “corrective actions” are planned or already being implemented at McGill? Staff cuts are the first unfortunate correction given that 80% of McGill’s expenses are salary-based. Mr Manfredi says: “With fewer staff, we cannot maintain the same operations.”

Doing the math

In 2023, Canadian higher education specialist Alex Usher about the differential between the revenue contribution of domestic students and international students at McGill, as summarised in the chart he created:

In October 2025, McGill welcomed , a loss of 8%. If we look at the chart above, that loss of international students equates roughly to a loss of CDN$21.1 million for McGill in international student tuition over two years. This loss will deepen given the in international student applicants in 2024/25.

This math illustrates just how affected McGill’s finances will be by a serious decline in international students. Forced to operate with less budget, McGill will be hard-pressed to maintain a range of programmes for domestic and international students alike. As Mr Manfredi notes: “In the long term, McGill has opportunities to generate revenue by offering new programs or delivering existing ones in different formats, such as online, and expanding global initiatives. However, these revenue streams will take time to have a meaningful impact.”

Extrapolating the logic

McGill University is ranked #41 in the world in the Times Higher Education (THE) rankings for 2026 and 27th according to QS. It is in the top 2% of all universities in the world. University of Toronto is as well (21st in THE’s ranking and 29th according to QS). Oxford is #1 according to THE and 4th in the QS rankings. Harvard is #5 according to both sources. University of Melbourne is in the top 20 in the QS ranking and top 50 according to THE.

Every year, these university powerhouses produce some of the most successful graduates in the countries in which they are located, including in the fields of AI, medicine, and engineering. Overseas, they are among the most sought-after universities by students across the world. Their brands – and those of other top-ranked universities in the countries in which they are located – help to anchor the popularity of their country as a study abroad destination and the reputation of the entire national higher education system that surrounds them.

In the US and Canada, the impact of government policies and rhetoric on international student demand and enrolments is not just jeopardising the operations of prestigious universities (and all universities, for that matter). By depressing international student numbers and associated revenue – without increasing public funding that could mitigate these losses – they threaten to damage the entire post-secondary landscape, thus reducing their countries’ potential for innovation.

As King’s College London’s Professor Shitij Kapur says: “If we’re going to change [the role of international students in UK higher education], we should do it knowingly after considering all the implications for our domestic students, for our universities, for our productivity as a nation.”

For additional background, please see:

• “���Ϲ��� Podcast: Engine of growth: The true value and impact of the international education sector“
• “US: Study estimates that changes to international student policies could reduce GDP by up to US$481 billion per year“
• “UK confirms levy on international student fees as new analysis argues that government is ‘drastically underestimating’ the impact of the move“
• “Canada: A case study of immigration policy impacts on postsecondary institutions and the wider economy“

The post The link between international student tuition and global competitiveness appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

Gabrielle Rolan, pro vice chancellor at the University of South Australia, led the event, which featured senior Navitas Australia executives Jonathan Chew (chief insights officer) and Ethan Fogarty (senior manager, government relations) sharing Navitas’ projections. Those projections were based on a variety of primary and secondary inputs from Oxford Economics and UNESCO (which counts higher education enrolments).

International student mobility set to grow

In 2019, six million students were studying in countries other than their own. Navitas projects 4% growth over the next few years, culminating in just over nine million students abroad by 2030.

India and China will continue to send the most students, followed by Nigeria. Regionally, Central Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa are expected to post the most percentage growth.

Will India overtake China?

The question is on everyone’s minds. Indian student demand for study abroad has been extraordinarily high for several years, while Chinese demand has been more complicated – slowed by the pandemic and disrupted by the proliferation of high-quality domestic options.

Mr Fogarty crystallised the complex interplay of factors that might inform the answer. India’s overall population will exceed China’s in 2030, as will its number of 18–22-year-olds. These dynamics guarantee an upward outbound mobility trajectory.

However, India trails China in several ways that will affect how many of its students will study abroad in the next few years. Its tertiary enrolment ratio, outbound study mobility ratio, and GDP per capita are much lower than China’s. These factors lead to a lower projected outbound volume in 2030 than China’s.

Still, for China, the outlook is uncertain. Mr Fogarty notes that confidence in the Chinese economy has deteriorated since the pandemic. Predictions for Chinese outbound have been volatile as a result, as shown in the following chart.

Mr Fogarty foresees “countervailing” inputs that will determine what happens in the event China’s economy deteriorates:

• On the one hand, affordability would become more of an issue – fewer families might be able to send their children for study abroad;
• On the other, unemployment and limited job prospects would drive more Chinese students to pursue opportunities in other countries.

Mr Fogarty points out: “Poor employment prospects can actually drive positive effects for students’ propensity to study.”

Because of this uncertainty, it is not impossible that India will defy the forecast and edge ahead of China by 2030. India has outperformed Navitas’ forecasts in the past, and it was instrumental to the recovery of international education sectors in leading destinations post-COVID.

But India would a great deal of catch-up in the next few years to match the market fundamentals of China. As shown below, GDP per capita would need to move from 6.8K in 2019 to 35K in 2030. Tertiary enrolment would have to jump from 28.4% to 58%. And there would need to be a doubling of the outbound student mobility ratio.

The more likely scenario – if India were to outpace China – would be more compelling “pull” factors for Indian students, such as better post-study work and immigration opportunities.

Whatever happens, it is almost certain that China and India will remain the top two sending markets in 2030.

A narrower pool of students

New immigration settings in leading destinations are fundamentally changing the way (1) international students consider study abroad, (2) educators recruit overseas. The following chart succinctly summarises this shift for Australia, but it could easily be extrapolated to the other three of the Big Four: Canada, the UK, and the US. Incoming students will be more academically motivated and less price-sensitive.

This isn’t to say that demand for foreign qualifications in emerging markets will lessen. To the contrary, it will probably grow. But transnational education, including branch campuses, international exchanges, and models where students complete part of their degree at home and part abroad, will likely play a much larger role in expanding access to globally recognised degrees in the future.

For additional background, please see:

• “Demand for study abroad rising in China but students considering more destinations in 2024”
• “Market snapshot: International student recruitment in China today”
• “What impact will a slowing economy have on Chinese demand for study abroad?”
• “Spending by Indian outbound students could reach US$70 billion by 2025”

The post Which countries will contribute the most to global student mobility in 2030? appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

For example, South Korea and Japan now host the greatest numbers of Vietnamese students in terms of overall enrolments (i.e., across levels and sectors, including language learning). According to Vietnam-based agent , South Korea is the top host (enrolling 66,000 Vietnamese students in 2022), and Japan is second with just over 49,000 in 2021 (consistent with the figure provided by . However, the Korea Educational Development Institute (KEDI) counts only ; according to the KEDI count, Japan is the top destination, followed by South Korea.

After that, top enrollers of Vietnamese students are as follows:

• US: 29,742 (2022 as per SEVIS)
• Australia: 21,315 (as of consulted June 2023)
• Taiwan: 20,000 (as per )
• Canada: 16,140 (2022)
• New Zealand: 13,475 (2022 as per Education New Zealand)
• China: 12,000 (2020 and 2021 according to )

Singapore, Germany, the UK, France, Finland, Ireland, and the Netherlands also host significant numbers of Vietnamese students.

Vietnam ranks in the top 10 student source markets for:

• Australia:
• Canada: #8
• Japan:
• New Zealand: #4
• South Korea:
• The US (#6 overall, #5 for K-12, #2 for community colleges)
• Taiwan ()

The indicates that 132,560 Vietnamese students were enrolled in higher education abroad in 2020. But Vietnamese students contribute to many other sectors, including K-12, non-degree, and language learning.

The Vietnamese Ministry of Education and Training (MoET) says there were about 190,000 Vietnamese students studying abroad in the 2019/20 academic year, while estimate more than 200,000 abroad.

Looking at the data we’ve noted so far – the enrolments, the prominence of Vietnam in top 10 sending countries for so many destinations, the hundreds of thousands of Vietnamese currently studying abroad – it’s already apparent why Vietnam is a hot zone for recruiters across all world regions.

But that’s not all. Consider the following demographic indicators:

• More than a quarter (28%) of Vietnam’s population is between and the higher education system is strained in terms of capacity.
• More than 20 million Vietnamese .
• And from : “Vietnam has the fastest growing middle class in Southeast Asia … and the tertiary enrolment rate has increased from 10% in 2001 to 29% in 2019.”

What are the push factors?

Education is a top-of-mind concern for families across Vietnam. In 2018, HSBC determined that spending on education accounted for 47% of the total household expenditure in the country. Vietnam’s English-language daily, , puts the national preoccupation with education this way: “Vietnamese families have maintained an age-old tradition of scrimping on everything else except education.”

But Vietnamese families have long lamented the state of their education system, and it’s been said that the poorer a Vietnamese family is, the more determined they are to send their children abroad.

are a serious problem in many cities and regions and families in rural areas are frustrated by . As the following chart from UN���Ϲ��� shows, upper secondary completion rates vary dramatically according to region and income bracket.

Families are motivated by a goal of lifting their children out of poverty and limited job prospects. Vietnam’s informal economy (aka “shadow economy” – jobs that aren’t taxed or monitored by government) accounts for , and the informal sector has been growing in recent years in contrast to a downward trend in comparable countries.

At the same time, Vietnam is also a success story according to many criteria, and an expanded middle-class means that many more families can afford to send their children abroad. says:

“Economic reforms since the launch of Đổi Mới in 1986, coupled with beneficial global trends, have helped propel Vietnam from being one of the world’s poorest nations to a middle-income economy in one generation.”

The World Bank notes the following achievements:

• Between 2002 and 2021, GDP per capita increased 3.6 times, reaching almost US$3,700.
• Poverty rates (US$3.65/day, 2017 PPP) declined from 14 in 2010 to 3.8 percent in 2020.
• Vietnam’s average duration of (learning-adjusted) schooling is 10.2 years, second only to Singapore among the Association of Southeast Asian Nations countries.

In 2023, both poorer and wealthier Vietnamese families are upset about rising tuition costs in their country – costs that make study abroad an even more attractive option. The government announced an intention to raise tuition fees in 2022/23 “to respond to the aspiration for better teaching and learning quality,” but also noted that the effect of COVID on families’ wealth had prompted “many localities have to keep, or even waive, their tuition fees at the general education level for the 2022–23 school year.”

Demand for K-12 education abroad is rising

Perhaps the biggest push factor for affluent Vietnamese families with high-school-aged children is the tuition charged by international schools in their country: up to US$34,700 a year. A couple of quotes from parents interviewed for a 2022 article in the popular Vietnamese news portal illustrate the depth of families’ frustration on this count:

“Even the famous Harvard demands only US$54,000/year. Anyone who sends his/her kids to such schools must be a fool. Money can buy many things, but never the intelligence.”

“A waste of money, more so if paid out of own pockets. Speaking of own experience having sent own kids to international schools (companies paid), a total rip-off. Many teachers at these schools are not even qualified to teach and kept moving on to the next country/adventure after a few years. If you have money to spend, better send your kids to really top schools abroad. Just a marketing gimmick preying on many rich parents looking to buy bragging rights or because their kids are not competitive enough in the local schools. These international schools really don’t make your kids smarter.”

High international school fees in Vietnam equate to a rich recruiting ground for K-12 schools abroad. An conducted in 2022 found that while undergraduate programmes remain the most popular option for Vietnamese students, the high school sector is growing the fastest.

Transnational providers enrol thousands of Vietnamese

A 2023 survey by (under the Sannam S4 Group), whose 1,000 participants included high-income parents with students aged 8-22, found that 85% of parents were open to their children enrolling in TNE programmes (this rose in major cities compared to regions). Nearly half (48%) said they would prefer their children enrol in either overseas or TNE programmes compared to 34% who preferred local options.

Half of parents would pay up to US$8,400 per year for a TNE programme in Vietnam.

Acumen provided details on the scale of TNE in activity in Vietnam:

“There are more than 400 joint programmes approved between Vietnamese and international institutions, and 5 foreign invested campuses (including RMIT and British University Vietnam). At least 15,000 students are now studying Australian programmes in Vietnam, with the UK, US and New Zealand also offering many programmes.”

E-learning market potential is huge

Vietnam is among the top 10 fastest-growing markets for e-learning (20% from 2019–2023), and the market was valued at US$3 billion in 2021, up from US$2 billion in 2019. reports that “Vietnam is host to 200 EdTech startups and is also among the top five countries receiving foreign investments in educational technology.”

According to , founder of FPT Online University (FUNiX), “Vietnam and some other countries like India, the Philippines and Mexico, which face major population pressure, have had to opt for e-learning to keep up with the education levels in developed countries.”

Demand for English-language learning is as high as ever

Vietnam is ranked 60 out of 111 countries in terms of English proficiency, according to EF Education First. Last year, the Vietnamese government made English a compulsory school subject for students in Grade 3-12, and that “all high schools, colleges and universities in Vietnam must have at least one foreign language and global integration club by 2030.”

But Vietnamese families aren’t waiting for their education system to catch up with the demand for English among employers, and ELT programmes abroad remain as popular as ever.

How do Gen Z Vietnamese make decisions about study abroad?

According to an conducted in 2022 among 1,000 Gen Z students and 500 parents in Vietnam, the top priorities for students considering higher education abroad were to improve English-language skills and enhance career prospects. Other major findings include:

• 4 in 5 students said their parents were the top influencers in their decisions about study abroad.
• Cost and safety were the top concerns of parents.
• Online content was the most important source of information, followed by discussions with university representatives and school counsellors.
• More than 9 in 10 participants also emphasised that agents/school representatives must engage with them face-to-face in addition to online.
• English-speaking countries are the major destinations considered by Vietnamese Gen Zs … but over half were considering a foreign degree from an Asian university as one of their top 3 choices.
• The top priorities in terms of destination choice were (1) Get the right experience and exposure for the field I want to pursue, (2) The quality of the education is much higher in this country, (3) Opportunities for international students to work after my degree. The ability to work while studying was ranked #4 in terms of importance.

IDP research has found that in 2023, Canada is perceived to offer the most value of all destinations in terms of post-study work visa policies and post-graduate employment opportunities.

For additional background, please see:

• “Parents and in-person counselling key factors in recruiting Vietnamese students”

The post Vietnam remains a key growth market in Southeast Asia appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

In contrast, the ELICOS (English Language Intensive Courses for Overseas Students) sector grew by nearly 90% in 2022 on the strength of huge gains in commencements, visa lodgements, and visas granted.

All told, ELICOS commencements increased by 155.4% year-over-year. But just as impressive is where that growth is coming from with Colombia, Thailand, and Brazil the biggest movers among the top sending markets.

Colombia was the leading source market for ELICOS in 2022, and finished the year with 12,700 commencements – accounting for nearly one in five of all commencing students and marking 287% growth from 2021.

Just over 10,400 new Thai students began their ELICOS studies in 2022, good enough to make Thailand the #2 sending market (with 14% of all commencements for the year), and representing a stunning 977% gain over the year before.

China finished up as the #3 sender for 2022 on the strength of its 9,599 commencements, but with a much more modest year-over-year growth of 16%.

The top five markets, which includes Brazil and Japan, accounted for six in ten of all ELICOS commencements. The top ten senders, as illustrated in the graphic below, provided roughly eight in ten of all commencing students for the year.

Reading the visa trends

Department of Education data tells us that there were 79,362 enrolments in ELICOS programmes in 2022, compared to 41,850 the year prior. Those numbers reflect only students holding study visas, and we can see as well that ELICOS sector grants were over 13.5 times higher in 2022, with 45,323 more grants compared to 2021.

Visa lodgements for ELICOS study were roughly nine times higher year-over-year with 56,492 total applications filed.

As we see in the chart below, the bulk of that growth in visa grants occurred in the second half of 2022.

The mix of visas granted by sending market in 2022 is also interesting, especially when we remember that China was the #3 source market (in terms of commencements) for the year. It doesn’t appear, however, in the following chart of the top ten markets in terms of ELICOS visa grants (China is #14 in that regard), suggesting that further shifts are ahead in the composition of ELICOS enrolment.

The bigger picture

With the dramatic growth for 2022, the total number of commencements has now recovered to 63% of pre-pandemic (2019) volumes. Needless to say. this is a very important and encouraging trend, not only for the sector, but for the recovery of foreign enrolment in Australia. Department of Education data indicates that nearly half (47%) of all student visa-holding ELICOS students go on to further study in the country.

The importance of those pathways, and the toll the pandemic has taken on international education in Australia, is vividly illustrated in . The study finds that the direct economic contribution of the sector declined from AUS$2.36 billion in 2019 to AUS$438 million in 2021, a drop of roughly AUS$1.9 billion (or -82%). It estimates as well that, given the large number of ELICOS students that progress to further study in Australia, the economic impact of those lost future enrolments was AUS$2.7 billion, for a total loss of AUS$4.6 billion.

Those numbers underscore the importance of the recovery in ELICOS commencements this year, not only in terms of total volume but also in the more diverse mix of sending markets we see taking shape through 2022.

For additional background, please see:

• “Australia: Latin markets boosting ELICOS recovery this year“
• “Australian ELICOS reached 20-year low in 2021 but recovery is now underway“

The post Surge in new students has ELICOS sector leading Australian growth for 2022 appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

The following graph from Statista shows the impressive upward trend in Ghanaian student mobility from 2010–2020.

Here’s a more detailed look at the growth we’re seeing from this market:

In Canada, according to IRCC data, the number of enrolled Ghanaian students was 1,235 in 2021, up from 880 in 2017 – a 40% increase.

• UK educators enrolled 21.9% more Ghanaian students in 2020/21 than in 2019/20 for , and Universities UK and UCAS are for market development, along with Nigeria and Vietnam.

• Ghana is the second-largest Sub-Saharan African source market for US educators after Nigeria. According to IIE data, a total of 4,230 Ghanaian students were enrolled in the US in 2020/21, compared with 3,215 in 2017/18 – .

• In Germany, according to , Ghana is one of the fastest developing markets, with 70% more Ghanaian students enrolled in 2019/20 than in 2017.

Currently, Ghanaian outbound is not large relative to other major source markets in Africa (e.g., Nigeria or Morocco). However, it is significant enough to form a critical mass of Ghanaian students in top destinations who, if they have a positive study experience, may recommend the destination/institution to their peers back home.

Further growth projected

We can expect more growth from Ghana given much more active recruiting overall in Sub-Saharan Africa on the part of educators in leading study abroad destinations. For example, Universities UK states that “Africa was the fastest-growing market for student recruitment, sending 29.8% more students in 2020/21 compared to 2019/20.” Africa is also on the radar in the US: University World News reports that, “According to the US Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs, the spotlight is on Angola, Cameroon, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, Rwanda, South Africa and Zimbabwe.”

Characteristics of the market

A key market fundamental making Ghana so promising for international educators is that 57% of the country’s total population of roughly 32 million is . Statista reports that “the number of people who were between the ages of 15 and 24 years in Ghana added up to .”

High school completion rates are uneven across the country and across income levels. Youth from the Ashanti, Eastern, and Greater Accra regions of Ghana are the most likely to have secondary and tertiary education, according to a 2020 report compiled by UN���Ϲ���.

The primary language of instruction – and official language – in Ghana is English, meaning that Ghanaian students are more prepared for English-language studies abroad than many international students.

Ghana has been one of Africa’s most stable and safe countries for years, and its economy was growing robustly until very recently. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has exerted a major downward pressure on the economy, in particular the agricultural sector, which is highly dependent on Russian fertiliser. Otherwise, the government blames weaker than predicted economic expansion on a combination of factors “including the COVID-19 pandemic … as well as US and Chinese economic slumps (Reuters).” The economy expanded by 3.3% in the first quarter of 2022 and 4.8% in the second quarter, compared to average growth of 7% between 2017-19.

The country’s currency, the Ghanaian cedi, has depreciated this year – joining the currency devaluation trend affecting many other emerging markets. This, along with slower economic growth, means that educators recruiting in the region will need to be sensitive to affordability issues among students and their families.

Most Ghanaian students are interested in degree studies abroad, particularly at the graduate level. The Accra Information Office of the United States of America (USA) that in 2019/20, “nearly half of the Ghanaian students in the United States were studying at the graduate level, and that the number increased by 22% over last year, from 1,860 to 2,270.” The organisation notes that, “As a result, Ghana moved from the ranking of 25 to 21 in terms of the highest sending countries worldwide for graduate studies in the United States.”

For additional background, please see:

• “From the field: Recruiting in Ghana“
• “Africa ascending: Four growth markets to watch“

The post Ghana: Steady gains in outbound student numbers suggest further growth ahead appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

Speaking at ���Ϲ��� Virtual Latin America 2021 this week, Alexandre Argenta, President of the (BELTA), shared recent research on the Brazilian market commissioned by Education New Zealand. It shows that that destination ranking is holding steady during COVID, with Canada, the US, the UK, Australia, New Zealand, and Ireland still the most popular choices among Brazilian students.

Surveys of both Brazilian agents and prospective students found that Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the UK were most highly rated among leading destinations for their pandemic response and perceived safety. Those parallel surveys also clearly showed, however, that student confidence or readiness to undertake study abroad generally lagged behind agents’ perception of destination readiness to receive students.

Mr Argenta, who is also the CEO of the agency, noted that those same student surveys indicate that 90% of Brazilian students are waiting for the opening of borders of their intended destination countries before investing in studies abroad. “At this point during the pandemic, students tend to start organizing or re-organising their exchange programme abroad to countries that have started to process and issue student visas. Canada and the US are the first destinations that started to process student visas so that has helped to put those countries at the top of our list.”

Mr Argenta also highlighted the important role of financial factors in student planning, including currency exchange rates and flexibility in payment plans. “In Brazil, the currency exchange rate is always fluctuating so the agents are forced to organise – through their own funds or with the help of banks or Credit card companies – different payment options for clients,” he explains. “Not everyone comes to the agency and pays for their programme with one payment. Brazilians are culturally used to paying things in monthly installments.”

The immediate outlook

“Throughout the pandemic, the main courses chosen by Brazilian students were, number one, higher education, [then] high school, and then language courses,” said Mr Argenta, who added as well that this had a lot to do with how destination countries began to tackle visa application backlogs this year. “Countries that restarted processing visas for Brazilians, they started with higher education programmes, and then high school programmes, and then only [in September 2021] they started processing visas for language programmes.”

BELTA estimates that roughly 390,000 Brazilian students went abroad in 2019, and that member agencies sent only about 25% of that volume in 2020. The association expects that outbound volumes will recover to roughly 50% of 2019 levels this year, and then will reach or exceed pre-pandemic numbers in 2022. “When borders are 100% open for Brazilians once again, and consulates are processing visas once again, we should be able to see the market back to normal.”

That outlook will be buoyed by continuing progress in Brazil’s COVID vaccination programmes. The rollout is going slowly but as of September 2021, just over 40% of the population is fully vaccinated against the virus.

Meanwhile, the Brazilian currency, the real, has depreciated significantly against the US dollar since 2018 (see chart below). It has however stabilised over the past year and is largely expected to hold its current value over the next 12 months.

For additional background, please see:

• “Brazil: Affordability will be key to unleashing demand for study abroad“
• “Brazil’s outbound numbers surged in 2018“

The post Brazilian outbound recovery projected for 2022 appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

Egypt

Egypt is the most populous country in the Arab world, and its economy grew by more than 5% in 2018. One in five Egyptians is aged 15–24, and fully a third of them are unemployed. Of those who are unemployed, 34% hold degrees.

Most university-bound students attend one of Egypt’s 24 free public institutions, while students who achieve lower grades in high school tend to enrol in one of the country’s 23 private institutions. Many graduates do not find jobs matching their skill level.

With a higher education crisis looming, the government passed legislation in 2018 that allows international branch campuses to operate in the country. As well as offering domestic students a better future, Egypt hopes to become a Middle Eastern education hub through this new strategy.

Given Egypt’s massive youth population, however, even a significant expansion of the domestic higher education sector will not accommodate enough students. The number of Egyptian students going abroad for higher education has nearly tripled in the past decade, from 12,300 in 2008 to at least 32,000 today, and this growth trend will almost certainly continue.

Roughly a third of Egyptian students are studying in Saudi Arabia or the UAE. The US is third, with just under 3,600 Egyptian students as of March 2019. While Egyptian enrolments in US institutions have been relatively flat, enrolments have increased by 78% in Canada over the past five years and now number around 2,500. Other top destinations include France, Malaysia, and the UK, each with roughly 2,000 Egyptian students in 2017/18.

Location

Northeast Africa, bordering Israel, Libya, and Sudan

Demographics

• Population: 101 million
• Population growth rate: 2%
• Population aged 15–24: 19%
• Population under 25: 52%
• Youth unemployment: 34%
• Languages: Arabic (official), English and French widely understood by educated classes
• Religions: Muslim (90%), Christian (10%)

Keys to the market

Colleges and universities establishing a presence in Egypt would do well to focus on linkages with the private sector to connect students to the real needs of the marketplace. SMEs (small- and medium-sized enterprises) are major sources of employment in Egypt, and therefore programmes fostering entrepreneurship and innovation are much needed.

Ghana

A democracy that consistently ranks in the top three countries in Africa for freedom of speech and of the press, Ghana is a peaceful oasis in a region often plagued by unrest. Its economy is growing steadily; 2019 is expected to be the third year of GDP growth exceeding 6%.

However, there is inadequate economic diversification. Many jobs in the country’s dominant agricultural and resource extraction industries require little formal skills training, and youth unemployment is disproportionately high among those with some higher education. A dearth of job opportunities at home motivates Ghanaian prospects to look carefully at post-graduate work and immigration policies in destination countries. A recent Pew Research Center survey found that three-quarters of Ghanaians would emigrate if they had “the means and opportunity.”

With Ghanaian universities able to accommodate only around 20% of those who apply, and given quality issues in the private education sector, demand for study abroad is increasing sharply. UNESCO counted 12,560 Ghanaians studying abroad in 2017, up 40% from 8,965 in 2012. This is a conservative estimate, given that there are at least 7,000 studying in China alone.

While Ghanaians traditionally favoured the US and the UK as destinations, they are now considering a much wider range of study abroad options. Australia, Canada, China, South Africa, and Ukraine have carved out strong positions in the market. China is offering thousands of scholarships per year to Ghanaian students, and Germany, Japan, and Russia are also notable for their incentives.

Location

West Africa, bordering Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, and Togo

Demographics

• Population: 30 million
• Population growth rate: 2%
• Population aged 15–24: 19%
• Population under 25: 57%
• Youth unemployment: 14%
• Languages: English (official and language of instruction), Akan, and Hausa (among Muslims)
• Religions: Christian (71%), Muslim (17%)

Keys to the market

Twenty-two accredited agencies are recognised by the Government of Ghana. As Michael Aidoo, the CEO and executive director of the Accra-based agency CELC International, explains, “In Ghana, you have to be a registered agency. You must register with the Ghana Education Service. Not only that, you should be a registered company in Ghana. That is the most important thing.”

Kenya

Kenya boasts one of the most diversified economies in Africa; agriculture and resource industries remain the most important sectors, but manufacturing, technology, tourism, and financial services are also well developed. The economy grew by 5.7% in 2018 and is expected to take a similar track in 2019.

The British Council projects that Kenya will have a population of 5.7 million college-aged students by 2024. These students hold the promise of meeting Kenya’s goal of becoming a middle-income country by 2030, but at present, its education system does not equip enough of these students with skills the country needs. Kenya’s higher education system has expanded rapidly in recent years thanks in large part to the entry of several private universities and polytechnics. But there are persistent quality concerns and government funding has been declining.

UNESCO estimates that 14,000 Kenyans are studying abroad, and the US, Australia, the UK, and South Africa host the bulk of them. That said, Kenyan outbound study has been essentially flat for several years. Partly this is because many Kenyans no longer see the value in higher education and need to find jobs as soon as possible. Demand is growing substantially for skills training. China is now a major player in providing vocational education in-country, with many graduates of programmes going on to find jobs in China-owned, Kenya-based companies.

This is a market ripe for some of the disruptive innovations transforming post-secondary education, such as short-term vocational training and micro-credentials.

Location

East Africa, on the Indian Ocean, between Somalia and Tanzania

Demographics

• Population: 52 million
• Population growth rate: 2%
• Population aged 15–24: 20%
• Population under 25: 59%
• Youth unemployment: 19%
• Languages: English and Swahili (official and language of instruction), Hausa (among Muslims)
• Religions: Christian (83%), Muslim (11%), small Hindu and Sikh minorities

Keys to the market

Quality vocational education is in demand in information technology, accounting and project management, geology, engineering, pipe fitting, welding, drilling, and operation and maintenance of equipment used in resource extraction. Partnerships with corporations to deliver skills training could be promising, and Kenyans will see value in educators that can match them with employers.

Nigeria

Nigeria’s domestic higher education system simply can’t educate the number of young people applying for spaces. According to Nigeria’s National Universities Commission, between 2012 and 2017 fewer than 20% of applicants to Nigerian universities gained admission, leaving 6.3 million qualified students without a place. One in five Nigerians is aged 15–24, and this is the fundamental reason that Nigeria will be one of the fastest growing markets for study abroad for the foreseeable future.

UNESCO estimates that there are around 90,000 Nigerians studying abroad today.

The country shook off a two-year recession in 2017 and returned to modest growth of 1.9% in 2018. While the government has endeavoured to make the economy less dependent on oil and gas, diversification is happening slowly and jobs outside natural resource extraction and agriculture are scarce: nearly a quarter of Nigerians were unemployed in 2018 and many more were underemployed. Boko Haram’s terrorism continues to plague the country and widens the divide between the poorer North and more affluent South. Basic infrastructure is generally weak, with frequent labour strikes, underfunded hospitals, and electricity shortages.

Many middle-class Nigerian families have a common goal: to start new lives in other countries. For that reason, Nigerian prospects, like Ghanaian ones, tend to look closely at immigration opportunities in destination countries. Top destinations include the US, with 15,980 students in early 2019; Malaysia, with roughly 13,000 in 2019; Canada, with 11,290 in 2018; and the UK, with 10,540 in 2017/18. Ghana and South Africa are popular regional hubs drawing thousands of Nigerians.

Location

West Africa, bordering Niger, Chad, Cameroon, and Benin

Demographics

• Population: 201 million
• Population growth rate: 3%
• Population aged 15–24: 20%
• Population under 25: 62%
• Youth unemployment: 37%
• Languages: English (official), Hausa, Yoruba
• Religions: Muslim (52%), Christian (47%)

Keys to the market

In Nigeria, vocational education retains a stigma; families see practical rather than academic programmes as appropriate only for the lower classes. Yet highly skilled graduates in specific trades are the employees Nigeria most needs. Intelligent branding of vocational education – combatting outdated stereotypes – will be important for colleges recruiting in Nigeria. Nigerians are also frustrated by student visa hassles and will look for destinations where their visa applications are most likely to be accepted.

For additional background, please see:

• “Africa ascending: The demographic juggernaut driving student mobility in the 21st century”
• “Growing Egyptian demand for education pressures domestic capacity”
• “From the field: Recruiting in Ghana”
• “Strengthening Nigerian economy bolsters outlook for study abroad”
• “From the field: Affordability shaping Kenyan outbound trends”

The post Africa ascending: Four growth markets to watch appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

Over the past decade, the massive youth populations of China, India, and other Asian nations have been the main forces driving an astronomic rise in international student mobility as students in these regions have left their countries to study for a better future. Most universities in Asia have, until recently, been unable to accommodate enough students and/or to provide students with a quality education.

But now, several Asian nations are rapidly expanding their higher education systems, offering students from the region an increasingly attractive array of options to study close to home. What’s more, demographics are changing in Asia, and by 2029, China’s population will begin to decline.

While Asia will remain a leading source of students for many years, the number of institutions – and countries – competing for students in that region is already increasing dramatically. As competition for Asian students intensifies, another region is quickly becoming a hotspot for the next wave of student mobility: Africa.

The number of students in sub-Saharan Africa leaving their countries for higher education is growing quickly, from 296,395 in 2012 to 374,425 in 2017, a 26% increase. The college-aged populations in African countries are huge already, and they are going to get much bigger, and soon.

“Africa is the new China, population-wise,” Adina Lav, assistant provost for international enrolment at George Washington University, said earlier this year in an interview for NAFSA’s . In 2030, one of every four people aged 15–24 will live in Africa, according to the United Nations. This fact is ushering in a spike in demand for study abroad that will only get more intense.

China is now #2

France has historically been – and remains – the largest destination market for African students (especially from North and West Africa); it enrols more than 150,000 African students annually. In second place? It was once the UK and the US, but China has surpassed them. According to UNESCO figures, UK and US universities enrolled about 40,000 African students each in 2017, while Chinese higher education institutions hosted 50,000 in 2015. The number in China is now thought to be 60,000 – 20 times what it was in 2005. African engineering students are particularly drawn to Chinese programmes, which are often taught in English and are much less expensive than engineering programmes in the US or UK.

For years, China has been playing the long game, investing billions of dollars in infrastructure in African countries. The first Forum on China-Africa Cooperation was held in 2000, and since then Chinese capital in African markets has grown dramatically. Healthcare and education systems have been major beneficiaries. As one African student told the China Daily newspaper, “My country, as well as most others in Africa, lacks professional doctors. China is so developed in medicine and has helped my country a lot in building schools and hospitals. I appreciated that and thought it might be a good place to learn medicine.”

As this example suggests, China’s strategy for being the dominant foreign power in Africa and for recruiting students from the region goes something like this:

1. Chinese companies and government agencies set up operations in African countries and establish development projects such as schools, hospitals, and public infrastructure (e.g., port, bridges, roads).

2. The Chinese government offers tens of thousands of scholarships per year for African students to study in China, as well as lower tuition relative to Western institutions.

3. African students return home with a Chinese degree and/or Chinese language proficiency, ready to be employed in Chinese-owned companies in their country (or to pursue career opportunities in the world’s now-largest economy in China).

So far, the model seems to be working exceptionally well.

Up next in our series: a closer look at two of the most important growth markets in the region: Egypt and Ghana.

For additional background, please see:

• “Africa’s pressing need for targeted skills training”
• “African student perspectives on study abroad”
• “New study highlights shifting patterns of African student mobility”

The post Africa ascending: The demographic juggernaut driving student mobility in the 21st century appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.