The latter development is bound to have widening impacts across the world as the strait is a notably narrow maritime passage through which approximately 20% of the world’s daily oil and liquefied natural gas shipments flow. A closure of any duration will cause supply chain shortages and surging energy prices, and could even threaten global economic stability.

It has been hard not to notice the early projections of that widening economic instability over the past couple of weeks. In the , for example, “When the war in Iran started…Asia expected to see serious, gradual impacts from losing access to a huge portion of the world’s oil and gas. But the conflict’s economic and social impacts have hit the region harder and faster than officials and experts expected.”

Or from : “Losing almost 20% of global oil supply leads to shortages, rationing, with effects that go far beyond demand destruction from higher prices. Around two-thirds of global oil consumption is transport-related, and diesel is the backbone of commercial logistics, agriculture, and parts of industry, so disruption would hit the economy through multiple channels.”

It seems clear that those impacts will be felt unevenly, with some global regions, notably Asia, more impacted as those supply chains and energy supplies are more directly affected by a disruption in Gulf shipping. Other regions, such as North America, are expected to be less affected. What is clear, however, is that such a significant change in global energy supply will unleash a new type of inflationary pressure on global markets, as rising fuel costs drive up prices across the global economy.

Those price effects have been particularly visible over the past month with respect to air travel. Around the world, carriers are adding fuel surcharges or otherwise raising fares to keep pace with rising fuel costs. Some are also cutting back on routes to better ensure that flights operate closer to capacity. There are also a growing number of reports projecting a shortage in jet fuel for at least this quarter and next, which could lead to further flight reductions and will only heighten the upward pressure on airfares.

“Much of the world’s jet fuel is refined in Asia; South Korea is the world’s No. 1 exporter,” reports . “But much of the crude that Asian countries use to make jet fuel comes from the Middle East…Even if the strait does reopen for good, and soon, it will take weeks for oil and jet fuel trapped by the strait’s closure to reach customers in Europe and Asia.”

To make that a little more concrete, the benchmark European jet fuel price for the week ending 24 April was US$1,478 per tonne, which compares to the per-tonne rate of US$831 before the war began. Airline pricing policy is changing quickly as a result, with carriers often levying fixed or route-specific fuel surcharges. In some cases, airfares have roughly doubled (or more) since February.

On top of those direct impacts of rising fuel costs and/or shortages of jet fuel, tens of thousands of flights have been cancelled or rerouted around key air travel hubs in the Gulf region, further adding to the disruption and upward pressure on airfares.

How are students affected?

It is too early to say how that global pricing disruption, or the prospect of a deepening economic impact, will impact student mobility.

Based on historical patterns, we might imagine that students travelling for longer-term travel – such as a degree programme or K-12 studies of a year or more – are less likely to be deterred in their study plans this year. But those same historical patterns suggest that enrolment in shorter-term courses, such as summer language programmes, could be more heavily affected.

When asked for their perspective on an EnglishUSA online forum, member language schools reported a mixed outlook for the summer season. “No one has explicitly referenced high airfare as a reason for not enrolling in courses this summer,” said one. “One partner did mention higher flight costs than anticipated, but that did not impact plans to attend our summer sessions. We’ve also had some partners indirectly reference ‘global affairs’ as a reason for not sending students this year, without mentioning flights specifically.”

“One of our partners cited the war, rising costs, and current global uncertainty as their reason for backing out of a summer special programme,” said another. “So, yes, we are seeing a negative impact.”

English UK Chief Executive Jodie Gray adds, “We have heard anecdotal reports from members that they’re seeing some cancellations from individual students/groups, and there’s concern that the situation may worsen as we move towards the summer.

English UK is running a monthly barometer of our members to monitor the impact of the war in the Middle East on their businesses. At this time of year, it’s very much a tipping point. There is a sense of uncertainty about what will unfold over the coming months as we head into the crucial summer season. What is clear is that the UK ELT sector is very much open for business as normal.”

For additional background, please see:

• “As Iran retaliates across the Middle East, schools close, students worry, and institutions reassess transnational education“

The post How will the war in Iran impact international student mobility? appeared first on şÚÁĎąŮÍř Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

Globally, 1.4 billion international arrivals were recorded last year, only 1% off arrivals in 2019, and up 11% on 2023. This marks a tremendous recovery from what UN Tourism calls “the worst crisis in the sector’s history.”

Along with arrivals, revenues were also up: Receipts reached US$1.6 trillion in 2024 (+4% over 2019) and total exports from tourism increased by 3% to $1.9 trillion in 2024. Average spending per arrival was an estimated US$1,100 in 2024.

A strong 2024 in most regions

Many destinations – both established and emerging – welcomed even more tourists last year than before the pandemic. Regionally, the Middle East recorded the highest growth rate, with arrivals up 32% compared with 2019, while Africa posted growth of 7%. Europe – the world’s largest destination with 747 million international arrivals in 2024 – was up 1% since the pandemic but 5% over 2023, largely due to strong demand among Europeans for travel within their region.

The Americas rebounded to about the same level as in 2019, and arrivals in the Caribbean and Central America strengthened by 7%. Asia-Pacific came back to 87% of 2019 volumes and there was robust growth from 2023-24 (33%).

Countries where arrivals picked up significantly include:

• Albania
• Andorra
• Colombia
• Dominican Republic
• El Salvador
• Ethiopia
• Guatemala
• Malta
• Morocco
• Qatar
• Saudi Arabia
• Serbia

UN Tourism Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili said:

“In 2024, global tourism completed its recovery from the pandemic and, in many places, tourist arrivals and specially earnings are already higher than in 2019. Growth is expected to continue throughout 2025, driven by strong demand contributing to the socio-economic development of both mature and emerging destinations. This recalls our immense responsibility as a sector to accelerate transformation, placing people and planet at the center of the development of tourism.”

Top tourism hotspots

Four of the five most visited countries by tourists are the UK, Spain, France, and Italy. All posted gains from tourism since 2019 – especially the UK (+40%) and Spain (+36%).

The countries in which tourists greatly exceeded their pre-pandemic spending last year include Germany (+36%), the UK (+36%), the US (+34%), Italy (+25%), and France (+11%). Indians spent on average 81% more when travelling abroad on vacation than in 2019.

Looking forward

In many parts of the world, 2024 was a challenging year, not least because of the war in Ukraine. This year looks as though it will have its share of volatility and upheaval – yet the UN Tourism report shows how much pent-up demand there was among travellers who refused to be deterred in their tourism plans.

UN Tourism expects international tourism arrivals to grow 3-5% compared with 2024, as long as “global economic conditions remain favourable, inflation continues to recede, and geopolitical conflicts do not escalate.”

Almost two-thirds of UN Tourism Panel experts expect “better” or “much better” prospects for 2025 compared to 2024, but they also note that economic and geopolitical headwinds pose significant risk. High transport and accommodation costs and volatile oil prices may also exert downward pressure on tourism volumes.

The Panel foresees tourists continuing to look for value for money, lesser-known destinations, and sustainable practices. The same trends are evident in the priorities international students now have for study abroad.

The post International tourism grew strongly in 2024, and experts are optimistic about 2025 appeared first on şÚÁĎąŮÍř Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

In the first quarter of 2023, international arrivals drew closer (80%) to the level they were at before the pandemic. More than 230 million tourists travelled internationally between the beginning of January and the end of March 2023, which is double the number in the same period of 2022. The Middle East saw the greatest recovery: arrivals were 15% higher than they were in 2019.

UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili said that while tourism is bouncing back nicely, new challenges have arisen in 2023 that may affect the volume of arrivals or the destinations that tourists choose.

“The start of the year has shown again tourism’s unique ability to bounce back. In many places, we are close to or even above pre-pandemic levels of arrivals. However, we must remain alert to challenges ranging from geopolitical insecurity, staffing shortages, and the potential impact of the cost-of-living crisis on tourism, and we must ensure tourism’s return delivers on its responsibilities as a solution to the climate emergency and as a driver of inclusive development.”

The following chart shows trends over time across regions. While Asia-Pacific has seen the weakest recovery so far, the UNTWO believes this will accelerate though the year, especially given that China’s borders are now open.

What’s ahead for the rest of the year?

UNTWO’s projections for the whole 2023 year foresee international arrivals recovering 80% to 95% of pre-pandemic levels. However, the UNWTO’s Panel of Experts warn that the economic situation in many countries could drag down this estimate:

“The economic situation remains the main factor weighing on the effective recovery of international tourism in 2023, with high inflation and rising oil prices translating into higher transport and accommodations costs. As a result, tourists are expected to increasingly seek value for money and travel closer to home. Uncertainty derived from the Russian aggression against Ukraine and other mounting geopolitical tensions, also continue to represent downside risks.”

For additional background, please see:

• “Global survey shows rising costs of living are significantly affecting international student mobility”

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The UNTWO comments:

“The steady recovery reflects strong pent-up demand for international travel as well as the easing or lifting of travel restrictions to date (86 countries had no COVID-19 related restrictions as of 19 September 2022).”

At the same time, the organisation notes that there are dampers on the recovery of global tourism – “from geopolitical to economic.” On 4 October 2022, the UN that the world “is on the brink of a recession” due to factors such as interest rate hikes in advanced economies.

Time for a “rethink”

Now is the time to rethink tourism, says the UNTWO, given its impact on “people and the planet.” Many students would agree. A study by QS in 2019 suggested that there is demand for schools and universities to become . More than 9 in 10 students surveyed said that “universities could do more to reduce their own impact on the environment.” In addition, more than three-quarters (79%) said they would be “more likely to choose a degree if the content taught them about reducing their environmental impact.”

Regions leading the recovery

The greatest recovery in arrivals occurred in Europe and the Middle East, where arrivals reached 74% and 76%, respectively, of their levels in 2019. Growth in Europe was driven by travel from within the region as well as from the US.

Who’s spending the most?

In terms of source countries for tourism, tourists from France and Germany spent almost as money on travel in the first part of 2022 as in the same period in 2019 (off only -12% and -14%, respectively). Travellers from Italy and the US also picked up their expenditures on travel, spending about three-quarters as much as they were before the pandemic.

A cautious outlook

Russia’s war on Ukraine is having a major impact on the rest of the world, dragging down both advanced and emerging economies. The UNTWO elaborates:

“The economic situation, exacerbated by the aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine, represents a major downside risk. The combination of increasing interest rates in all major economies, rising energy and food prices and the growing prospects of a global recession as indicated by the World Bank, are major threats to the recovery of international tourism through the remainder of 2022 and 2023.”

That warning should resonate with educators recruiting international students, as well. Throughout the year, we have reported on students’ growing interest in for study abroad options that are relatively affordable. This is leading to growth in international student numbers in several countries outside the leading English-speaking destinations (e.g., Germany, France, , and Finland).

Students may also be more likely to consider online starts to their programmes, given that by staying in their own countries for part of their degree they would avoid a portion of accommodation and living costs in a destination country. Demand for this option may increase if students are provided with additional incentives, such as lower tuition or post-study work rights. An IDP study in 2021 found that significant proportions of students in 55 countries would consider an online start to studies.

Demand for purely online studies may rise as well. This is already a trend in many regions. In Japan, for example, of the 15,100 Japanese students who enrolled in foreign institutions in 2021, according to JAOS (Japan Association of Overseas Studies), just over 6,100 went abroad, while nearly 9,000 stayed in Japan to study online.

For additional background, please see:

• “Online degrees gaining new prominence because of the pandemic”
• “Australian conference highlights new thinking about international education”
• “International education begins to look ahead to a greener future”

The post Global tourism has recovered to roughly 60% of pre-pandemic levels appeared first on şÚÁĎąŮÍř Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

“The recovery of tourism has gathered pace in many parts of the world, weathering the challenges standing in its way”, said UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili.

The UN World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) reports that Europe and America are driving much of the recovery so far this year. “Europe welcomed more than four times as many international arrivals as in the first five months of 2021 (+350%), boosted by strong intra-regional demand and the removal of all travel restrictions in a growing number of countries,” explains a UNWTO release. International arrivals in the Americas were up 112% through May 2022, but still remain 40% below pre-pandemic levels.

Lying behind that destination performance is strong growth this year in tourism spending from key source markets, including France, Germany, Italy, and the United States, where total spending now ranges from 70-85% of pre-pandemic levels. In other notable cases, such as India, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, spending is already up above pre-COVID volumes.

Looking ahead, the UNWTO expects international travel to reach between 55–70% of pre-pandemic levels in 2020, with the caution that actual industry performance will depend on, “evolving circumstances, mostly changing travel restrictions, ongoing inflation, including high energy prices, and overall economic conditions, the evolution of the war in Ukraine, as well as the health situation related to the pandemic. More recent challenges such as staff shortages, severe airport congestion and flight delays and cancellations could also impact international tourism numbers.”

For additional background, please see:

• “UN tourism body joins call against blanket travel restrictions“
• “Global tourism strengthens in 2021 but still far below pre-COVID levels“

The post International arrivals up 225% through May 2022 appeared first on şÚÁĎąŮÍř Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

UNWTO and IATA have collaborated on the Destination Tracker in a bid to restart international travel and to “to boost confidence and accelerate recovery of the tourism sector when borders reopen.”

“The situation for travellers is complex with UNWTO data showing that one in three destinations remains closed to tourists,” say the two organisatons. “Moreover, restrictions and in-country measures are continuously being revised.”

The new Destination Tracker is available for reference on both the and websites. It will provide detailed information for each destination, including:

• COVID-19 indicators including infection rates, positivity rates, and the progress of vaccination rollouts;
• Air travel regulations, including test and quarantine requirements;
• Public health measures, including general health and safety requirements such as use of masks, transit through a country, curfew, and regulations related to restaurants and attractions.

“It has been more than a year since the freedom to travel was lost as COVID-19 measures saw borders close,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director-General. “When governments have the confidence to re-open borders people will be eager to travel. And they will need accurate information to guide them. With the support of national tourism organisations, the UNWTO-IATA Destination Tracker will help travellers and travel companies obtain the latest information for travel planning,”

With continuing border closures and other restrictions still in place, the UNWTO has otherwise projected a slow recovery in 2021. Under even its most optimistic scenarios, global travel volumes would still be less than half of 2019 levels.

UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili said in the context of the most recent forecasts, “2020 was the worst year on record for tourism. The international community needs to take strong and urgent action to ensure a brighter 2021. Many millions of livelihoods and businesses are depending on it. Improved coordination between countries and harmonised travel and health protocols are essential to restore confidence in tourism and allow international travel to resume safely ahead of the peak summer season in the northern hemisphere.”

For additional background, please see:

• “World travel organisation calls for ‘harmonised travel and health protocols’ to spur recovery in 2021“
• “Survey confirms that vaccination rollouts are influencing student choice“
• “COVID-19 restrictions ‘unprecedented’ in history of international travel“

The post UNWTO and IATA launch new dashboard for COVID travel updates appeared first on şÚÁĎąŮÍř Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

In November, experts predicted that arrivals would be down close to 70% for the year, and the new data shows that they have fallen 72% through October, with 900 million fewer international travellers arriving at global destinations between January and October of 2020 than in the same period last year.

If arrivals drop by 70–75% for the whole of 2020, as is expected, “global tourism will have returned to levels of 30 years ago, with 1 billion fewer arrivals and a loss of some US$1.1 trillion in international tourism receipts. This massive drop in tourism due to the pandemic could result in an economic loss of US$2 trillion in world GDP.”

In a press release covering the new data, UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili said that the tourism industry has been among the worst hit of all sectors by the pandemic and emphasised the urgency of opening borders:

“Since the start of this crisis, UNWTO has provided governments and businesses with trusted data showing the unprecedented impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on global tourism. Even as the news of a vaccine boosts traveller confidence, there is still a long road to recovery. We thus need to step up our efforts to safely open borders while supporting tourism jobs and businesses. It is ever clearer that tourism is one of the most affected sectors by this unprecedented crisis.”

The most affected region so far is Asia-Pacific. China was the epicentre of the pandemic at the beginning of 2020, and along with countries such as New Zealand and Australia, it has been strict about keeping borders closed to beat back infection rates. This choice of policy is helping to slow the spread of COVID but it is not surprising to see this region encounter the steepest declines in arrivals as a result.

The UNTWO presentation of the January–October 2020 data includes an interactive chart showing tourism levels for each of the regions in different months of the year. The only region that shows much variability is Europe (shown below), where we can see a slight reprieve from the steep losses in arrivals beginning in the summer, when many EU countries eased travel restrictions. In other regions where governments did not significantly alter their border policies through the year, there was a more constant trendline of severe losses.

Recovery expected in second half of 2021

Few destinations are showing signs of recovery in their tourism sectors yet; only Germany, France, and the US have seen a little more activity even though the UNTWO notes that “the proportion of closed destinations has dropped from 82% in late April 2020 to 18% in early November.”

The UNTWO believes that vaccines as well as improved ways of safely opening borders may slowly restore consumer confidence in 2021 and forecasts a rebounding of global tourism in the second half of next year. A return to 2019 levels is not expected for two-and-a-half to four years.

The path towards more open borders

An related, and ongoing, UNTWO study, the has found that countries that have opened their borders the fastest are those “with higher scores in health and hygiene indicators” and that these destinations are “increasingly applying differentiated, risk-based approaches to implementing travel restrictions.”

UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili says that,

“A coordinated approach to easing and lifting restrictions on travel whenever is it safe to do so is essential. This will not only open destinations up to tourism again, but clear and consistent rules between countries will go a long way towards building back trust in international travel and boosting consumer confidence.”

There are several initiatives underway to create digital health passports for travellers that will be accepted on a worldwide basis. These passports store travellers’ verified test results and allow the results to be shown to airline and border officials. The goal of them is to smooth immigration processes, to boost safety and traveller confidence, and to reduce or even replace reliance on quarantine – all results that would encourage more tourism. Some passports are already being trialled for certain international flight routes, and more widespread use of them is expected next year.

For additional background, please see:

• “Digital health passports will shape global travel in 2021”
• “Updated world travel outlook anticipates recovery will start in 2021“
• “New study benchmarks global student group travel market“
• “COVID-19 restrictions “unprecedented” in history of international travel“

The post New UNTWO data measures pandemic’s toll on global tourism appeared first on şÚÁĎąŮÍř Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

With vaccines already beginning to be administered in some countries, there is also discussion about the potential use of “immunity passports” going forward.

CommonPass trials are underway

The “CommonPass” digital health passport, a platform – and app – that stores and stands as proof of a traveller’s COVID-19 test results, is one of the main initiatives underway in this regard.

A collaboration of the World Economic Forum, the Commons Project Foundation (a Swiss-based non-profit), and public and private partners in close to 40 countries, the CommonPass has already launched in limited fashion. The first trial was in October for passengers on United Airlines and Cathay Pacific Airlines flights between London, New York, Hong Kong, and Singapore. This month, the trial is being expanded to passengers of JetBlue, Lufthansa, Swiss International Airlines, United Airlines and Virgin Atlantic on certain flights leaving from New York, Boston, London, and Hong Kong. US Customs and Border Protection and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are observing the trials and looking at the multitude of logistical, legal, and safety factors at play.

To use CommonPass, travellers go to a certified lab to take a COVID test and upload their results. Depending on where they are going to, they may also have to fill out additional health questionnaires required by the destination country. CommonPass then generates a QR code that airline staff and border officials scan to ensure that travellers are meeting airline and destination country screening requirements.

While there have been concerns raised about privacy and data protection, CommonPass does comply with the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) and it is designed to not reveal additional personal health information about the passenger. CommonPass provides officials with a “yes” or “no” answer regarding whether the passenger has met current entry screening requirements for a destination; officials do not see any other information about the passenger’s health background.

The CommonPass website explains that the pass is designed to “enable safer airline and cross border travel by giving both travellers and governments confidence in each traveller’s verified COVID-19 status.”

Dr. Bradley Perkins, chief medical officer of the Commons Project, explains the raison d’etre of the CommonPass:

“Without the ability to trust COVID-19 tests – and eventually vaccine records – across international borders, many countries will feel compelled to retain full travel bans and mandatory quarantines for as long as the pandemic persists. With trusted individual health data, countries can implement more nuanced health screening requirements for entry.”

Steve Morrissey, United Airlines’ vice president, regulatory and policy, says that “trials with solutions like CommonPass are critical to demonstrate the potential for testing as an alternative to blanket quarantine measures or travel restrictions.”

Assuming all goes well with the current trials, CommonPass usage will soon be expanded for flights departing and arriving from cities in Asia, Africa, the Americas, Europe and the Middle East. 

Other travel passes in development

The IATA will be launching its own travel pass in early-2021. The IATA Travel Pass will also rely on testing and will “securely manage, share and verify test data matched with traveler identities in compliance with border control requirements.” The following graphic from IATA shows what the Pass is intended to do:

Other digital passports in development include the , by Ink Aviation and Tento Health, the AOKpass by International SOS in partnership with the International Chamber of Commerce, and Australia-based .

Will immunity passports be widely adopted?

With vaccines rolling out in 2021, there is anticipation that travellers will have to prove they have been vaccinated to enter a destination. Already, Alan Joyce, CEO of Australia’s largest airline, Qantas, has stated that to board Qantas flights destined for Australia (a country with some of the strictest COVID border measures in the world), passengers will need to have been vaccinated. Mr Joyce says Qantas is in the process of investigating digital solutions for this purpose. Air New Zealand and Korean Air have also indicated they are in favour of “immunity passports,” but Air New Zealand also released a statement saying that,

“Ultimately, it’s up to governments to determine when and how it is safe to reopen borders and we continue to work closely with authorities on this.”

Some experts are skeptical about the ability of immunity passports to stimulate global travel. One reason is that a relatively small proportion of the population will be vaccinated in 2021. On top of limited vaccine availability, there are significant pockets of resistance to the prospect of getting vaccinated at all in several countries. For example, found that only 58% of Americans say they will get the vaccine. Destinations that would require an immunity passport from travellers would thus lose out on a substantial number of would-be American tourists, and airlines would be similarly affected.

Need for cohesion

As exciting as it is that several travel passes are in the final stages of development, there is the potential for confusion and logistical delays as a result of the competition to be the default pass for global travel. As Gabriel Leigh writes in magazine,

“The more all of this can be streamlined across borders, across airline alliances and so on, the better off everyone will be … Competition is a good thing, as long as it doesn’t add to confusion in this case. Hopefully one very clear winner will emerge.”

For additional background, please see:

• “Vaccine breakthroughs lead to updated forecasts for COVID recovery”
• “Updated world travel outlook anticipates recovery will start in 2021”

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