It is now just over two months since the United States and Israel first launched coordinated military strikes against Iran on 28 February 2026. The war has already cost thousands of lives and billions of dollars. it has also led to destabilising retaliatory strikes throughout the Gulf region and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The latter development is bound to have widening impacts across the world as the strait is a notably narrow maritime passage through which approximately 20% of the world’s daily oil and liquefied natural gas shipments flow. A closure of any duration will cause supply chain shortages and surging energy prices, and could even threaten global economic stability.

It has been hard not to notice the early projections of that widening economic instability over the past couple of weeks. In the , for example, "When the war in Iran started…Asia expected to see serious, gradual impacts from losing access to a huge portion of the world’s oil and gas. But the conflict’s economic and social impacts have hit the region harder and faster than officials and experts expected."

Or from : "Losing almost 20% of global oil supply leads to shortages, rationing, with effects that go far beyond demand destruction from higher prices. Around two-thirds of global oil consumption is transport-related, and diesel is the backbone of commercial logistics, agriculture, and parts of industry, so disruption would hit the economy through multiple channels."

It seems clear that those impacts will be felt unevenly, with some global regions, notably Asia, more impacted as those supply chains and energy supplies are more directly affected by a disruption in Gulf shipping. Other regions, such as North America, are expected to be less affected. What is clear, however, is that such a significant change in global energy supply will unleash a new type of inflationary pressure on global markets, as rising fuel costs drive up prices across the global economy.

Those price effects have been particularly visible over the past month with respect to air travel. Around the world, carriers are adding fuel surcharges or otherwise raising fares to keep pace with rising fuel costs. Some are also cutting back on routes to better ensure that flights operate closer to capacity. There are also a growing number of reports projecting a shortage in jet fuel for at least this quarter and next, which could lead to further flight reductions and will only heighten the upward pressure on airfares.

"Much of the world’s jet fuel is refined in Asia; South Korea is the world’s No. 1 exporter," reports . "But much of the crude that Asian countries use to make jet fuel comes from the Middle East…Even if the strait does reopen for good, and soon, it will take weeks for oil and jet fuel trapped by the strait’s closure to reach customers in Europe and Asia."

To make that a little more concrete, the benchmark European jet fuel price for the week ending 24 April was US$1,478 per tonne, which compares to the per-tonne rate of US$831 before the war began. Airline pricing policy is changing quickly as a result, with carriers often levying fixed or route-specific fuel surcharges. In some cases, airfares have roughly doubled (or more) since February.

On top of those direct impacts of rising fuel costs and/or shortages of jet fuel, tens of thousands of flights have been cancelled or rerouted around key air travel hubs in the Gulf region, further adding to the disruption and upward pressure on airfares.

How are students affected?

It is too early to say how that global pricing disruption, or the prospect of a deepening economic impact, will impact student mobility.

Based on historical patterns, we might imagine that students travelling for longer-term travel – such as a degree programme or K-12 studies of a year or more – are less likely to be deterred in their study plans this year. But those same historical patterns suggest that enrolment in shorter-term courses, such as summer language programmes, could be more heavily affected.

When asked for their perspective on an EnglishUSA online forum, member language schools reported a mixed outlook for the summer season. "No one has explicitly referenced high airfare as a reason for not enrolling in courses this summer," said one. "One partner did mention higher flight costs than anticipated, but that did not impact plans to attend our summer sessions. We've also had some partners indirectly reference 'global affairs' as a reason for not sending students this year, without mentioning flights specifically."

"One of our partners cited the war, rising costs, and current global uncertainty as their reason for backing out of a summer special programme," said another. "So, yes, we are seeing a negative impact."

English UK Chief Executive Jodie Gray adds, "We have heard anecdotal reports from members that they're seeing some cancellations from individual students/groups, and there's concern that the situation may worsen as we move towards the summer.

English UK is running a monthly barometer of our members to monitor the impact of the war in the Middle East on their businesses. At this time of year, it's very much a tipping point. There is a sense of uncertainty about what will unfold over the coming months as we head into the crucial summer season. What is clear is that the UK ELT sector is very much open for business as normal.”

For additional background, please see:

• "As Iran retaliates across the Middle East, schools close, students worry, and institutions reassess transnational education"