The link between higher education enrolment and jobs

The number of students enrolled in India’s higher education system has more than tripled in the past 15 years to a Gross Enrolment Rate (GER) of 28%, and the government’s target is a GER of 50% by 2035. But the pace of enrolment growth is slowing, and it is doing so in tandem with a slowing of income gains for graduates since 2017.

The APU report offers some sobering statistics:

• Under 7% of graduates in India secure permanent salaried jobs within one year of graduation.
• Of those who do, less than 4% land white-collar positions.
• 40% of graduates aged 15–25 and 20% of those aged 25–29 are unemployed.
• Of the roughly 5 million graduates India produces each year, barely 2.8 million find jobs, with even fewer securing salaried work.
• While on average, graduates still make double the amount of money over the course of their lifetime than those without higher education, the pace of wage growth for them has slowed since 2017.
• The proportion of young men in school is declining – from 38% in 2017 to 34% in 2024.

Tenuous pathways from education to good jobs for women

Among poorer Indian families, the motivation to save precious income for university studies has always been to escape informal and/or poorly paid occupations in agriculture and construction. Between 2007 and 2017, the share of students from India’s poorest households enrolled in higher education rose from 8% to 17%, and while this happened, a growing number of new jobs were created outside of agriculture.

Still, nearly half of all work remains in the agricultural sector, and almost two-thirds of all Indian women working are employed in that sector. Many of them are the first in their family to hold a degree – and they invested in that degree precisely to get out of agricultural work.

A March 2026 article by the sums up the differing outcomes of segments of female graduates:

“At one end, a small but growing cohort of educated and skilled women is entering salaried roles in IT, automobile manufacturing, and business services. At the other, far larger end, most of the increase is in self-employment and unpaid or home-based work, often within households or family enterprises. This signals necessity rather than opportunity. The result is a statistical rise in participation that masks a qualitative divide: opportunity at the top, compulsion at the bottom.”

In March 2025, interviewed 27-year-old Geetanjali Devi, 27, who holds a bachelor’s degree in history. Now, Geetanjali works on her family’s rural farm in the state of Bihar near the border with Nepal. Her husband is not with her: “Like the majority of men in the village, he spends most of the year working construction in the southern state of Kerala, earning $8 a day more than 1,000 miles away.”

Men are also losing hope

Disappointing job prospects are dampening Indian men’s demand for higher education. APU’s study notes that in 2017, 58% of young men cited economic pressure as the reason for not continuing their studies. Only five years later in 2023, this proportion rose significantly to 72%.

Without a degree, more Indian men are turning to informal jobs to meet urgent household needs for cash. They cannot wait to see if the economic returns of higher education will pay off over the long term.

More industry linkages are needed

As reported in a January 2026 article, new survey results from India’s TeamLease EdTech, a provider of employability solutions and educational technology for higher education, show that “75% of higher education institutions in India are not adequately prepared to meet industry expectations.” Only 7% of the 1,000 representatives from wide swath of institutions surveyed said they were achieving placement rates above 75%.

According to the report, ‘”industry relevance is often treated as an add-on rather than a fundamental design principle,” resulting in graduates who emerge with “theoretical knowledge that lacks direct applicability in a modern workplace shaped by technology, automation, and evolving business models.”

There are, of course, high-quality institutions that do prioritise industry linkages, but wealthier students have a much better chance of (1) affording these and the higher-ROI courses such as engineering they offer, and (2) obtaining good jobs as a result of this and their social connections to those in power.

The national urgency

The APU report notes:

“India’s youth population, defined as those between the ages of 15 to 29, is the largest in the world. The 367 million people in this age group account for a third of the country’s working age population. The extent to which this large, increasingly educated and aspirational cohort is productively absorbed into the labour market will determine whether this massive, and continuing demographic dividend translates into an economic dividend.”

Much will depend on whether India can provide more linkages from education to good jobs for segments other than the wealthiest students. If not, the number of degree-holding women left on farms to manage subsistence agriculture will increase, and the number of men who trust higher education to increase their income prospects quickly, rather than over a lifetime, will decrease.

The urgency is real. The Washington Post reports: “Indians are now poorer than Hondurans on a per capita basis. More than half of those of working age are unable to find a place in the formal economy.”

For additional background, please see:

• “Is a university degree still the same passport to success?”
• “Canada and India deepen educational ties; India repositions as an equal player in international education”
• “The number of Indian students abroad fell in 2025”

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India, like China, has cultivated an eclectic mix of political and economic alliances across multiple regions. It is as likely to partner with the US as with Russia, and it works closely with France, Germany, Japan, and Australia on joint goals in the spheres of military, technology, and trade. In 2026, India has renewed ties with Canada under Prime Minister Mark Carney after a years-long diplomatic rift.

Higher education has become another area of strength: the number of top-ranked Indian higher education institutions is growing. In the 2026 QS world ranking, 54 Indian institutions were featured. This is five times as many as in 2015.

For all these reasons – as well as US President Trump’s dismantling of the post-WWII world order of alliances – India is an increasingly coveted trade and education partner. It is now negotiating from a very different position than it has historically: a position of strength, as an equal partner.

This is nowhere more evident than in international education. India is no longer just a source of students for the Big Four (Australia, Canada, UK, and US) – it is ever more a country with which the Big Four partner under mutually beneficial terms.

This reality is well illustrated by the warming India-Canada relationship in 2026.

The Canada–India Talent and Innovation Strategy

In February 2026, representatives from 20 top Canadian institutions travelled to India to explore partnerships centred on common areas of interest and specialisation with Indian counterparts. There, the was launched by Universities Canada and Colleges and Institutes Canada (CICan). Notably, Prime Minister Carney as well as Foreign Minister Anita Anand were present in Mumbai for the official launch, signalling the importance of the Strategy to Canada.

Out of that event alone, 13 new MOUs were signed (see ). Collectively, the MOUs cover student and faculty exchanges; joint academic programming; dual credentials; embedded work experience; post-study progressions into jobs; research collaboration including potential TNE arrangements and STEM projects such as clean energy and AI; and pathways from Indian programmes to Canadian programmes.

The collaborative approach signalled by the new Strategy is more than evident in the statements prepared by Minister Anand and Universities Canada President Gabriel Miller. Count the number of times “partner” or “partnership” appear in their quotes:

Minister Anand: “Canada and India are natural partners in education, innovation and research. Canada welcomes the new Canada–India Talent and Innovation Strategy that will create opportunities for students and researchers, drive economic growth, and reinforce the strong people-to-people ties that connect our two countries.”

Mr Miller: “This is a new chapter in a very important relationship, and it demands a new partnership on higher education and research, which is vital to the future of both our countries. We are building the foundations of a long-term partnership that will create good jobs, better incomes and communities that can thrive in a highly competitive global economy.”

An invitation to ambassadors

Also in February, Indian Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan addressed the Study in India Edu-Diplomatic Conclave 2026 in New Delhi. In attendance were ambassadors, high commissioners, and diplomats from over 50 countries. With Indian officials, participants discussed strengthening international cooperation in higher education.

As per an article in The Hindustan Times: “[Minister Pradhan] called upon the Excellencies to collaborate with India’s fast-growing, innovation-driven, multidisciplinary and access-friendly education system.”

Minister Pradhan told the assembly that “Indian institutions are deepening global engagement through joint, dual and twinning programmes, while premier universities are expanding their international footprint.” He made particular mention of the Global South and distanced it from its colonialist interpretation: “From artificial intelligence, biotechnology and semiconductors to sustainable energy, India is emerging as a trusted innovation partner, advancing a Global South model rooted in collaboration, capacity-building and shared knowledge.”

The foreign diplomats were told that India’s previously unstructured and unregulated environment for branch campuses has been replaced with “a transparent and time-bound regulatory framework” that has seen top institutions in Australia, Italy, the UK, and the US cleared within a month.

A redefinition of India

Canada’s flurry of education and research agreements with India are but an example of momentum in the Big Four to move from a purely recruitment-focused model – i.e., enrolling Indian students at home – to a partnership model. In recent months, the UK, Spain, and Australia have all sent similar delegations to build new partnerships in India.

The shift happens as:

• The number of Indian students studying abroad in 2025 fell by -5.7% compared with 2024, according to India’s Ministry of External Affairs;
• The number of first-time Indian students in UK institutions fell -12% in 2024/25, the second year of decline;
• In Australia, Indian commencements were down -8% in January–September 2025;
• In the first half of 2025, Canada granted 9,995 study permits to Indian students – down from 76,930 in the same period in 2024 and 149,875 in 2023;
• In the US, F-1 visas issued to Indian students fell by -44% in the first half of 2025 versus the first half of 2024.

For additional background, please see:

• “The number of Indian students abroad fell in 2025“
• “The UK is quickly expanding its TNE footprint in India”

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The decline dovetails with a longer pattern of slower outbound growth from China. Educators in major destination countries have been mitigating the Chinese trend by leaning more heavily into recruiting in India. But the new data shows that relying too heavily on India for enrolment volumes is not without risk. The -5.7% decline is moderate, but it nevertheless highlights the ongoing need for diversification in recruiting overseas students.

More hesitancy in the marketplace

This year has been a challenging one for many prospective international students and their parents – in India and elsewhere. The stricter regulatory environments in Australia, Canada, the UK, and US (aka the Big Four) have introduced uncertainty into the marketplace. Policies affecting both prospects and current students are proposed and/or announced frequently – but not predictably.

As a result, destinations other than the Big Four are now much more likely than in the past to be seriously considered for degree programmes. This trend has been intensified by (1) a growing number of highly ranked universities across Europe and Asia, and (2) the expansion of English-taught programmes in those universities and regions. Germany, New Zealand, France, and Ireland are all seeing more growth from the Indian market at the same time as demand for Big Four countries weakens.

Trends in the Big Four

Canada remains the top preference for Indians according to the MEA data, followed by the US, UK, and Australia. But recent trends show the UK gaining on the rest of the Big Four.

Canada: The number of Indian study permit holders fell from 533,305 in 2023 to 510,235 in 2024 according to . When full-year data for 2025 is released, there will be a much more significant drop given that:

• Between January and August 2025, – compared with 149,875 for the same period in 2023 and 76,930 in 2024.
• The proportion of Indian study permit applicants fell from 35% in 2023 to 17% in 2025.
• Indian students are being rejected at a higher rate than the average: compared to an all-country average of 58%.

United States: Enrolments of Indian students in US higher education institutions grew from 331,600 in 2023 to . But in the first half of 2025, F-1 visa issuances to Indian students compared with the same period in 2024. Chinese visa issuances also fell, but not as steeply (-24%). In contrast, the number of Vietnamese students receiving F-1 visas jumped by 20% in the first half of 2025 compared with the same period in 2024.

adds: “If current trends continue, it’s possible Chinese students will become the largest incoming international student population in the US for the first time in four years.”

Australia: While Indian enrolments in Australia are now at an all-time high, commencements are declining. In the period January to September 2025, were enrolled in Australian institutions (across sectors) – up +4% over 2024. The growth was fuelled by rising enrolments in universities, as shown in the following chart from MacroBusiness.com depicting trends in the first half of the year.

However, Indian commencements were down , and Australia also saw fewer new students from its number one market, China (-9%).

The Australian government is prioritising India as a talent pipeline through numerous recent agreements, but it is also applying greater scrutiny to Indian prospects given relatively high levels of fraud detected in this market. Australia’s vocational sector (VET) is particularly affected by high rates of visa refusals for Indian students.

United Kingdom: Indian enrolments are growing despite earlier signs that the Dependants Ban might depress demand. Up to June 2025, Indian students were granted almost as many sponsored study visas (98,015) as Chinese students (99,920), with an approval rate of 96%. In Q2 alone, visa grants for Indian students surged by +44% compared with a -35% decrease for Chinese students. Indian demand at the master’s level is extremely high, with 81% of Indian students approved for master’s level courses.

Alternative destinations on the rise

Germany has become a much more popular destination for Indian students. In fact, DAAD reports that the number of Indian students in German universities – from 28,905 to 59,420. India is Germany’s number one market by a considerable margin, followed by China and Türkiye. Engineering is by far the top draw, with 60% of all Indian students in Germany enrolled in this field of study.

New Zealand: There are nearly 12,000 Indian students in New Zealand in 2025 (across sectors) – a stable number from 2024 after two years of very high growth (+99% in 2023 and +49% in 2024).

France: India is not yet in France’s top 10 list of student source markets, but it is close at 11th. In 2024/25, Indian enrolments in French universities grew +17% over the previous year to 9,100 students, and that growth is set to increase quickly: France has a goal of hosting .

Ireland: In 2023/24, India overtook the US as the top international segment in Irish universities, growing 50% over the previous year to over 7,000 enrolments.

For additional background, please see:

• “Global trends in international enrolments and policies as we head into 2026”
• “Canada and the US are losing international student enrolments to Europe and Asia”

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The twenty years between 1990 and 2010 saw a rapid expansion of student mobility. The number of students pursuing higher education credentials abroad increased by 5.4–5.9% per year, on average – a much higher rate of growth than in the previous two decades. The reason, in a word, was China.

China was the main contributor to student mobility growth from 1970 until about 2015 on the back of its roaring economy, burgeoning middle class, and massive gaps between student demand for higher education and capacity at reputable Chinese universities. These factors propelled large numbers of Chinese students abroad for many years. Most of them were self-funded, and many of them were just as likely to return home after their studies as they were to stay on in their host destination to work.

Chinese students shaped educators’ understanding of international students in general. Their priorities were assumed to be foreign students’ priorities…until fairly recently.

Evolving needs

Now, students’ top-of-mind concerns centre on the costs of study abroad. This manifests in several ways, including interest in work opportunities during and after study abroad, greater price sensitivity in the marketplace, and the growing popularity of affordable study destinations.

Chinese students are no exception. China’s economy has cooled in recent years and its youth face historically high unemployment rates. Following the COVID-19 pandemic, Chinese families became more hesitant about study abroad, more worried about safety, and less convinced that investing in a foreign degree will provide the same benefits as it used to.

New expectations

The composition of foreign enrolment in many destinations has changed substantially over the past 10 years. There is a far greater diversity of students coming from all over the world and much greater outbound flows from South Asia and Africa.

Tens of thousands of students are now from lower-middle-income countries in which the Gross National Income (GNI) per capita is between US$1,136 and $4,495. These dynamic sending markets include Cameroon, Ghana, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Nepal, Vietnam, and at least a dozen others. In Nepal, fully one in five students now chooses to leave their country for tertiary education.

Considering the low GNI in those countries, there is an associated need among many students to work during and after studies; to carefully examine the costs of study and living in various study destinations; and to choose programmes most strongly linked to positive career outcomes.

Inside the numbers

In 2010, there were just over four million students abroad in higher education. Roughly 1.3 million – almost 31% of the total – were from China, and in that year alone, the number of Chinese outbound students surged by 24%.

That same year, there were just over 330,000 students from South Asia studying abroad, with most coming from India. The number of African students was about the same.

By 2019, the global total of international students rose to six million. Nearly three in ten (28%) were from China, but roughly as many were from key markets in South Asia – including over a million from India. Meanwhile, the number of African students abroad reached nearly half a million.

By 2024, student mobility had rebounded from the pandemic, and almost seven million students were abroad. However, a much greater range of countries contributed to that outbound trend than in 2010 and 2019. The number of Chinese students dipped to just over one million (or about 14% of the total) while the number of Indian students climbed to an estimated 1.3 million, representing nearly 19% of the total in 2024. Other South Asian markets – notably Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka – also registered very strong growth.

Buffeted by economic headwinds at home, the number of African students did not grow significantly in the five years between 2019 and 2024. However, given its massive college-aged population, Africa is expected to figure much more prominently in global mobility trends going forward. To highlight just one indicator of that potential, the United Nations has projected that by 2030, one of every four people on the planet aged 15-24 will live in Africa.

Implications

We have entered an era in which global student flows are heavily shaped by students from South Asia, Africa, and Southeast Asia.

This accelerating trend means that the historical understanding of international students – largely informed by the Chinese students who once greatly outnumbered students from other countries – is outdated. The reality is that the world’s mobile students are more heterogeneous than ever – from varied backgrounds and with unique as
well as common needs.

It is time to double down on brainstorming about how to enhance the study abroad experience for a more diverse range of students. This means creating more detailed student personas; conducting more market intelligence research; reaching out to current international students for insights; examining the range of student services on offer; prioritising integration services; tailoring the website to address concerns and aspirations in top target markets; providing better guidance on immigration rules and visas; and more. It also involves recognising that work rights, career services, and career outcomes have joined quality of education as dominant drivers of student decision-making.

The international students of today – and of the future – will be shopping the market for value and measurable outcomes more carefully than ever before. The most competitive institutions will deliver that ROI in every facet of their offer to students.

For additional background, please see:

• “What students want: The top decision factors for study abroad“
• “The four key trends that will shape international student mobility for the next decade“

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Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s first official visit to India in October 2025 included a major focus on expanding educational ties between the two countries, and it followed his recent approval of Lancaster University and University of Surrey setting up branch campuses in India. Prime Minister Starmer said:

“More Indian students will be able to benefit from a world-class British education, strengthening the ties between our two countries while pumping millions back into our economy.”

Other UK universities with branch campuses in India include Aberdeen, Bristol, Coventry, Southampton, Liverpool, Queens University Belfast, and York. Including Lancaster and Surrey, all UK universities operating or approved for branch campuses in India are in the 2026 QS top 600 rankings, and more than half of these are in the top 200. Those rankings illustrate the calibre of education now available to Indian students through UK branch campuses in their country.

High-level agreements support the UK’s transnational expansion

The UK has always been the world leader in delivering transnational education, but it is cementing its position by capitalising on India’s 2020 decision to allow branch campuses to operate in the country and a new bilateral agreement called India-UK Vision 2025. This agreement sets the stage for the two countries to partner in areas including trade, transnational education, technology and research, green energy, and defence and security.

For the UK, expanding its footprint in India will serve to generate millions more in export revenue and to extend its soft power in Asia. For India, UK branch campuses will help to solve its supply-demand problem with higher education capacity. By 2035, India is expected to need 70 million places in higher education for its students. Educational partnerships with the UK will also help India to develop its economy, global competitiveness, and participation in cutting-edge research initiatives.

Mitigating risk

The Starmer government’s strong support of transnational education recognises the risk accompanying tighter immigration and compliance settings that make it more challenging for UK universities to recruit overseas.

There were 732,285 international students in UK higher education in 2023/24, representing a modest dip (-4%) from the year before, according to the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA). Not coincidentally, the former UK government announced that dependants of most international students would no longer be able to come to the UK on a visa in June 2023. That policy came into effect in January 2024.

More changes that will also likely depress demand are imminent, including the reduction of the Graduate Route timeframe from 24 months to 18 months in 2027 for undergraduate and master’s students.

The transnational educational footprint of the UK, meanwhile, is growing so quickly that transnational enrolments are expected to surpass onshore international enrolments in the years ahead. In its report on the scale of UK transnational education released this fall, Universities UK noted:

“From 2022/23 to 2023/24, the UK … saw +7.8% growth in UK HE TNE students. If the same growth/reduction rates were to continue for another academic year, the number of UK HE TNE students would overtake onshore international student recruitment to the UK in 2024/25.”

It seems clear that the Starmer government is keen to increase the share of transnational income in the total export revenues provided by international students. Of the £32 billion (US$42.5 billion) of revenue generated by international students in 2022, almost £1 billion came from branch campuses. The government’s goal is to see 2022’s income rise to £50 billion. Given that the strategy is to reduce net migration – including by limiting international student numbers in the UK – it follows that transnational education is meant to become a much bigger segment of total income derived by international students.

The UK government has said of its branch campus push: “Deeper engagement with India offers a sustainable funding stream for UK higher education institutions, bolstering their financial resilience.”

Third-party activity

It is no easy feat to set up branch campuses, not least because of complex regulatory and infrastructure rules in host countries, India included. This offers an opportunity for third-party companies to step in and set up structures that enable universities to open branch campuses without the headache of compliance and other rules.

One such company is UK-based , which currently operates in 15 countries including India. The company has already invested £25 million in India and plans to add another £200 million in the next three years. So far, GEDU has three campuses in India, with the largest being its campus in GIFT City in Gujarat. Queen’s University Belfast has j and Coventry and University of Surrey are scheduled to open in 2026 or 2027.

GEDU’s new investment will fund its planned GEDU Global Education City near Delhi, which is meant to begin enrolling its first students in 2027/28.

How do other major destinations measure up in India?

Australia currently has two operational branch campuses in India, both in GIFT City. Four other Australian universities have been approved to set up campuses over the next couple of years. The US has none, but the Illinois Institute of Technology has been approved to open in 2026. One Italian and one Malaysian institution have been approved. Canada has none.

Writing on the recently, Dr David Pilsbury, chief development officer at Oxford International Education Group, said:

“TNE is moving from the periphery to centre stage in higher education … What was once a niche activity has become a strategic imperative for universities and nations alike. The UK must urgently shift focus away from just students coming to the UK, to a more universal approach that embraces TNE in all its forms. If we fail to seize the opportunity now, the UK risks losing its chance to remain an international leader in this field – a chance that, arguably, will not come again.”

Suffice to say, the UK is not sleeping on this opportunity.

For additional background, please see:

• “UK transnational education enrolments poised to surpass onshore students this decade“
• “China leverages higher education capacity with expanded TNE partnerships“
• “UK transnational education expands at fastest rate ever“

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According to a 4 June 2025 report, international students contribute over US$40 billion to the US economy. The article mentioned rumours of potential curbs to Optional Practical Training (OPT), a key pathway for foreign graduates to gain work experience.

In the UK, the Government has announced its intention to reduce post-study work term of the Graduate Route from two years to 18 months. As our latest research shows, these adjustments threaten to undermine the very model that sustains this student flow. What was once a soft benefit is now a critical pillar of financial viability.

An Indian student returning home immediately after a US undergraduate degree at a private university could work more than 30 years to recover the cost. Stay and work for two years post-graduation, and that figure drops by 11 years, or as little as three in Canada and Australia. For Chinese graduates, a stint of post-study work can cut almost six years from the payback period. (These figures are based on average graduate salaries in the relevant countries and allow for taxation at prevailing rates.)

Across scenarios, students who can work after studying earn back their investment much faster than those who cannot. The economic impact is undeniable—and increasingly, unavoidable.

China

As we see in the first chart above, students returning to China immediately on graduation would need to work for almost 14 years to earn the equivalent cost of a three-year undergraduate Russell Group education (including living expenses), and for four years less, if they took advantage of a two-year post-study work opportunity. Masters students who return home immediately can earn the total cost of a one-year Masters in around 4.6 years but can reduce that recovery time by half if they do some post-study work in the UK.

The same undergraduate student who works in a graduate level job in the UK and then returns home can cut almost five years off the repayment term, earning the equivalent back in just under four years.

India

The charts again reflect that students returning to India immediately on graduation would need to work for 14 years to earn the equivalent cost of a three-year undergraduate Russell Group education (including living expenses), and for two years less, if they studied at a non-Russell Group university. Masters students who return home immediately can earn the total cost of a one-year Masters in just under five years.

The same undergraduate student who works in a graduate level job in the UK and then returns home can cut more than eight years off the repayment term, earning the equivalent back in just under five and a half years.

But universities cannot rely on immigration policy alone to make education affordable. Reducing fees may not be fiscally viable. Instead, institutions must rethink delivery. Offshore degrees, hybrid models, and transnational partnerships offer students the chance to begin their studies at home – at lower cost – and finish overseas, gaining the international exposure and credentials employers value most.

These shifts are happening at pace. An opinion piece in by Dr Cheryl You points out that, “More students are opting for in-country pathways, such as foundation programmes or 2+2 joint degree arrangements between Chinese and Western universities, as more practical and supportive alternatives. In addition, they are increasingly looking beyond traditional overseas study destinations to closer-to-home alternatives, such as , Macao or elsewhere in Asia.”

And, as for post-study work, it is a critical part of the offer for students. It is not a pathway to permanent migration nor a drain on public resources. Students on post-study work in the UK pay an additional surcharge to use [National Health Service] services, for example. A period of post-study work makes a world class education more affordable for students and provides the receiving country with a valuable talent pipeline – especially in areas where there are major labour shortages – such as in technology and other skilled fields which are such important drivers of economic growth.

For universities and policymakers alike, the message is clear: that return on investment for the visiting student is no longer optional. Rather, it is increasingly the global currency of trust in higher education. Global student mobility works best when the math does too.

A note on methodology: We used an average of tuition fees and living expenses for each of the destination countries.vOur team then calculated graduate starting salaries – net of income tax for each of the three post-graduation options.

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The appeal of those leading destinations remains, but over the last year it has become more difficult for international students to:

• Get a study visa
• Bring family with them
• Secure post-study work rights
• Afford their studies
• Become permanent residents
• Feel certain that policy settings are stable

These challenges are making it more challenging for many international students from around the world to pursue study abroad in a Big Four destination – not just Indian students.

However, for schools and universities in the Big Four countries, Indian enrolments have been crucial, with India often representing the first or second-largest market for many institutions and schools. Now, however, many of those educators are coping with a significant softening, or even decline, in Indian student numbers.

For example, Indian government data indicates that the number of degree-seeking Indian students travelling abroad for studies declined by almost -15% in 2024 compared with 2023, and (rounded to the nearest hundred) by:

• -41% in Canada (from 233,500 in 2023 to 137,600 in 2024)
• -28% in the UK (from 136,900 to 98,900)
• -13% in the US (from 234,500 to 204,000)
• -12% in Australia (from 78,100 to 68,600)

Overall, 759,000 Indian students studied abroad in 2024 according to Indian government data, down from 893,000 in 2023.

While Indian enrolments in Canada, the UK, and US have declined, these destinations still accounted for nearly three-quarters (72%) of Indian students abroad in 2024.

What is driving Indian student outbound in 2025?

For the most part, it is policies in Australia, Canada, and the UK – and growing unease about President Trump’s treatment of immigrants – that are depressing Indian student demand for study in one of the Big Four destinations. Also contributing is the recent depreciation of the Indian rupee against the US dollar, which makes it even more expensive for Indian students to study abroad. Sudarshan Motwani, founder and CEO of BookMyForex.com, points out: “Even a slight fluctuation can inflate students’ annual expenses, making budgeting a daunting task.” Eela Dubey, co-founder of EduFund, :

“Rupee depreciation acts as hidden inflation for Indian students aspiring to study abroad, significantly increasing the cost of education, even if universities do not raise tuition fees. This means that even if a university maintains its tuition fee in USD, Indian students end up paying more in [rupees] solely because of currency fluctuations.”

Speaking with , Maria Mathai, founder of MM Advisory Services, called lower Indian outbound a “market adjustment” rather than an exit. She said: “It’s a recalibration, not a collapse. Students are responding pragmatically to shifting costs and changing visa rules.” She continued:

“Student priorities are evolving with each policy shift in the industry. Our destination maps now have layered overlays – visa stability indices atop rankings. The student who once asked: ‘What’s your university’s rank?’ now asks: “What salary can I expect, and which programme guarantees work rights if policy changes?’”

A recent report from the British Council adds that the number of students from India “will almost surely decline” for major study designations this year. While the fundamentals – including the massive demand for higher education – remain very strong for the Indian market, “the broad-based slowdown in outbound mobility from India is driven in part by a market correction after enrolments from the country surged in 2022 and 2023. Tightening visa restrictions in major host destination countries are also depressing demand from less qualified Indian students.”

Indian students warming to alternative destinations

In contrast to trends in the Big Four, and according to Indian government data, Indian student numbers are rising in destinations such as:

• Germany: +68% from 2022 to 2024 (from 20,700 to 34,700)
• Russia: +59% from 2022 to 2024 (from 19,800 to 31,400)
• France: +33% from 2022 to 2024 (from 6,400 to 8,500)
• New Zealand: +354% from 2022 to 2024 (from 1,600 to 7,300)
• Ireland: +49% from 2022/23 to 2023/24 (from 4,700 to 7,000)

Uzbekistan and Bangladesh are also very popular according to Indian government data, welcoming 10,000 and 8,900 Indian students in 2024, respectively.

Germany’s high quality of education and low tuition fees are its main draw for Indian students. France is also more affordable than the Big Four and like Germany, boasts several highly ranked universities. Seventeen German universities are in the Top 500 tier of the QS 2025 World University rankings, and France boasts the same number of higher education institutions in that tier.

France has stated a goal of welcoming 30,000 Indian students by 2030. It is recruiting more intensively in India accordingly. Indian students can access to prep them for French bachelor’s or graduate programmes, or they can choose from nearly 2,000 English-language programmes in the country. Post-study opportunities are another draw: Indians graduating with French master’s degrees are one of only five nationalities who can benefit from a two-year post-study stay visa.

Russia, meanwhile, has always been popular in India for its medical, engineering, and aviation programmes. It is vastly more affordable than the Big Four, and its admission requirements are far lower.

New Zealand is gaining market share as the most welcoming Anglophone destination for Indian students in terms of study and work visa opportunities. It offers highly ranked universities and is considered safe. Safety is naturally an enduring priority for all international students, and along with New Zealand’s policy environment, is part of the reason that there was in international student numbers in New Zealand in Jan-August 2024 (73,500) versus Jan-August 2023.

For additional background, please see:

• “Beyond the Big Four: How demand for study abroad is shifting to destinations in Asia and Europe“

The post What is happening with Indian enrolments abroad this year? appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

As of 30 September, more than 1.2 million Indians have travelled to the United States year to date in 2024, representing a 35% increase over the same period in 2023. The US Mission adds that, “At least six million Indians already have a non-immigrant visa to visit the United States, and each day, the Mission issues thousands more.”

“Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Joe Biden set an ambitious goal to improve and expedite the visa process and I’m proud to say that we have delivered on that promise,” said US Ambassador Eric Garcetti. “Our consular teams at the embassy and four consulates work tirelessly to ensure that we meet the surging demand.”

Needless to say, this will be important development for Indian students hoping to study in the United States, and for easing the well-documented backlog for study visa applicants. Prior to the September announcement, wait times for visa interview appointments in India had approached (or exceeded) 200 days. The latest for F-visa interview appointments (as of 9 October 2024) have been considerably reduced, with average waits indicated as 42 days for applications lodged via New Delhi and 66 days for those filed in Mumbai.

The situation has been so serious this year that it has been a focus point for lobbying by the U.S. for Success Coalition, which has been urging Congress to take action to reduce the backlog in key markets in the Global South, notably in India and Africa.

“Yes indeed our advocacy is helping to move the needle,” says Dr Fanta Aw, the CEO and executive director of NAFSA: Association of International Educators. “We want to be sure international students who are admitted to institutions in the US are able to get in for appointments and we appreciate the work of Consular Affairs to continue to prioritise students. We however need to do better on reducing visa denials so as not to deter students wanting to come study in the US. NAFSA and the U.S. for Success Coalition is committed to working with the State Department on this important issue.”

The move also sharpens the attractiveness of the US to Indian students, at a time when changing policy settings in Canada and the Australia are already triggering a shift in demand.

For additional background, please see:

• “The view from here: How the ‘Big Four’ study destinations are adapting in a year of change“
• “Recent policy changes slowing student interest in the UK, Canada, and Australia“
• “US coalition urges Congress to take action to improve visa processing this year“
• “US: New coalition pushes for coordinated national strategy for international education“

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