Fully three-quarters of Chinese students in Australia are in higher education. Department of Home Affairs data shows compared with February 2025. This is on the heels of previous decreases over the past couple of years.

As Chinese demand softens for study in Australia, interest from several South Asian markets has been increasing or stable over the past five years. This does not offset declining Chinese demand, however, largely because in contrast to very high visa approval rates for Chinese university students, students from emerging markets such as Bhutan, Sri Lanka, India, and Nepal face a much greater chance of having their visa refused.

Therefore, higher demand from some South Asian markets is not making up for lower Chinese enrolments. Rather, it is being stopped at the border.

More visa rejections in February 2026 than in any year of tracking data

In February 2026, one out of every three students applying to an Australian university . This monthly refusal average (32.5%) was the most significant in 21 years of tracking, and it was spiked by incredibly high rejections of students from Nepal (65%), Bangladesh (51%), India (40%), Sri Lanka (38%), and Bhutan (36%). This compares to a refusal rate of about 3.5% for Chinese students applying to an Australian university.

A depressor on diversification

Australian universities have long known that they need to rely less on China for enrolments. But a number of factors are making this very hard to do, including:

• Many of their top 10 markets – including India, Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan – are experiencing visa rejection rates of 30% or more.
• Many of these markets are price-sensitive, and thus especially affected by record-high and non-refundable visa application fees and financial requirements.

The pathway to higher education is being squeezed

In addition, several important emerging markets in Southeast Asia, such as Thailand, are characterised by very low English proficiency. Many Thai students (28%) begin in ELICOS to improve their English and then progress to higher education. Yet in February 2026, 43.5% of Thai visa applications for ELICOS study were rejected, narrowing the pipeline of Thai students into higher education.

Other implications of high visa refusal rates

As part of an ongoing mission to (1) weed out non-genuine students from entering the country and (2) disadvantage institutions considered to be at high risk of recruiting those students, the Australian government has a system that assigns institutions into one of three categories of risk. Those determinations are mostly based on student visa outcomes – especially visa refusal rates due to fraud (40%) or other reasons (10%).

The record-high spike in visa refusals in February 2026 will bump some universities into a Level 2 or 3 risk category. This will require them to secure more documentation from students (e.g., English-language test scores, financial means) to prove those students are genuine, and it means that new prospective students’ visa applications will be processed more slowly. All this means that on top of lower-than-expected enrolments and potentially weaker standing in key origin markets, those institutions will:

(1) Need more administrative staff time to try to help prospects submit more comprehensive documentation.
(2) See a higher volume of students who choose another option (i.e., another institution or destination) due to frustration with long visa processing wait times.
(3) Be more challenged to execute effective recruitment strategies in key markets due to overloaded resources and finances.
(4) Be less able to reduce reliance on their top market, China.

To make matters worse, when a visa submitted offshore is refused, the student must reapply if they want another chance. This would mean that on top of paying the first non-refundable visa application fee – currently AU$2,000 – they would have to lay out that amount of money again, with no guarantee of their second application being approved. This alone severely hampers Australia institutions’ ability to persuade an applicant to try again with better documentation.

Peak bodies react

The International Education Association of Australia (IEAA) is calling for a freeze on changes to immigration risk ratings at the next scheduled evidence level review in September 2026 because of the surge in visa rejections. Because refusals compose 50% of the criteria on which institutions are categorised, a volume of refusals can force an otherwise high-performing institution into a higher risk category.

In addition, reports that:

“Universities Australia is urging the government to publish weekly refusal dashboards so providers can intervene early with extra document checks and GTE coaching [Genuine Temporary Entrant] rather than lose applicants outright. In the short term, institutions recruiting heavily from India, Nepal and Bangladesh will need emergency marketing in lower-risk regions such as Southeast Asia and Latin America to keep 2027 pipelines alive.”

ELICOS and VET representatives have so far been unable to persuade the government of the growing existential threat to their operations as a result of current policy directions. It remains to be seen if the more recent pressure on higher education can create a different urgency around the serious challenges the sector is facing today.

Key facts

• In 2024/25, education exports amounted to AU$53.6 billion (US$37.8 billion), according to the , divided between tuition income and students’ spending in the Australian economy. This means that multiple business sectors outside of education reap the benefits of international student spending in the country.

• Almost three-quarters (72%) of the total economic value is from higher education enrolments.

• More than half (58%) of the total came from Australia’s top five markets: China, India, Nepal, Vietnam, and Colombia.

• Visa applications from Indian students fell -33% between 2023/24 and 2024/25, and the number fell by -10% from Nepal.

• Visa refusals for India and Nepal were 40% and 65% in February 2026.

• Nearly one-fifth of international students begin in ELICOS or VET

For additional background, please see:

• “Australia: Latest enrolment data challenges the government’s assertion of stability for international education this year”

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The op-ed is a study in rhetoric. It is well written and structured. It positions the government as supportive of the international education sector. And it is persuasive in asserting that there remains a need for policies that “boost integrity and crack down on dodgy practices 
. to combat the exploitation of overseas students and address behaviours that seek to exploit the migration system.” No one in international education would take issue with those points.

Further, Mr Hill writes:

“Continuity in the form of policy stability is good for providers, students and Australia’s global market positioning in a chaotic world where competitors are lurching and rapidly changing settings 
. we aim to maximise policy stability and minimise policy shocks.”

This is a fine idea. Except that the government’s international education policies have never been less stable than over the past two years.

Mr Hill calls out competitors for “lurching and rapidly changing settings,” yet Australia stands with Canada as outliers in terms of the scale and pace of government interventions in the international education sector. Rule changes – from visa fees to post-study work rights and more – are announced frequently and with little to no sectoral consultation or forewarning, leaving institutions scrambling to adjust, often with weeks or days to react.

An article in elaborates:

“For a sector like international education, predictability is not a luxury, it is foundational. Providers plan years in advance, setting recruitment targets, building offshore pipelines, investing in partnerships and staffing based on policy settings they expect to hold. When those settings shift rapidly or without clear forward guidance, the impact is immediate and far reaching. Agents lose confidence, students look elsewhere, and institutions are left recalibrating mid cycle. In this context, predictability is not about resisting reform, but about enabling it to land effectively. Without a stable and clearly signalled policy environment, even well-intentioned changes undermine the very outcomes they are designed to achieve. This is a message the government is reluctant to accept.”

Not targeted enough

The stated goal of the government’s policies is to curtail bad actors (i.e., unethical agents, institutions, and students who use study visas mainly or entirely to work/immigrate to Australia). The problems here are that:

• Their design is broadly punitive rather than targeted.
• They are not just dissuading non-genuine students from entering the country. They are also dampening demand from genuine students.

A notable drop in commencements; ELICOS and VET hard hit

The latest available data from reports:

“In the YTD December 2025, 846,321 international students studied in Australia, a -0.5% Ìędecline on the same period in 2024. The number of new students, studying in Australia in 2025 (202,882) declined by -15% on the same period in 2024.

The Higher Education sector still had growth in enrolments on the same period in 2024 (10%), followed by Schools (4%), while all other sectors showed declines, notably ELICOS (-35%).”

Those numbers tell the tale of a sector in which key segments are travelling in opposite directions. Lower student demand is especially notable in the English-language (ELICOS) and vocational education (VET) sectors.

Starting in mid-2023, the Australian government has hiked the application fee for a student visa three times, landing on the current cost of AU$2,000. With every increase, reputable English-language providers have lost significant numbers of students and have been disproportionately affected compared with universities.

This is because English-language programmes tend to be relatively short and less expensive than diplomas or degrees. For many prospective ELICOS students, the AU$2,000 (non-refundable) fee represents up to 40% of the total cost for a programme. For students from source countries with high visa refusal rates, the possibility of paying that much for a visa they may not receive is disheartening – and it often leads them to choose another destination.

The example of Colombia

Colombia is a good example of how fee increases and visa rejection rates are hitting the ELICOS sector. Colombia is currently the seventh largest market for international education, and one that is predominantly focused on English-language studies.

Since 2023, Colombian ELICOS enrolments and commencements have fallen by -63% and -96%, respectively. This coincides with:

• Refusal rates for Colombian ELICOS applicants rising from about 4% in 2022/23 to around 40% in 2024/25;
• Application fee increases in 2023, 2024, and 2025.

Data in the following chart suggests a correlation between fee increases and enrolments and commencements over three years.

Across all source markets, Colombian and otherwise, visa applications fell -39% for ELICOS programmes between 2024 and 2025. Vocational (VET) institutions have also been hit hard, with applications down by -35%.

The downstream effect for higher education

Colombian students mostly come to Australia for English-language or vocational studies; a relatively small proportion progresses to higher education. But other top ELICOS markets such as Thailand are also important for Australian universities, and many students begin in ELICOS then go on to higher education. If we look at 2024/25, .

Sticking with Thailand, Thai commencements in ELICOS began falling dramatically in 2024, as shown in the following chart.

The next chart depicts Thai commencements in higher education. In 2025, after three years of growth, the volume of these commencements fell. Part of the decline is due to the major drop in Thai commencements in ELICOS from 2023 to 2024 – which are just starting to affect numbers in higher education, as it takes anywhere from 6 to 24 months for the ELICOS–higher education pathway to show up in data.

A mixed performance

Much of the strategic direction Mr Hill articulates in his op-ed makes sense: furthering transnational education; matching international student profiles to skills gaps in the Australian economy; and considering international education beyond economic benefits.
Ìę
He is absolutely right that “a stronger, more sustainable, and resilient international education sector that delivers more value for Australia, providing students with a top-quality education and welcoming experience, is something that everyone can be proud of.”

But this will not happen if policies continue to punish quality institutions as well as suspect ones, and continue to gut the ability of excellent ELICOS and VET institutions to draw sufficient enrolments. The international education sector’s health depends on a holistic understanding of its interconnections.

Of the industry response to the op-ed, The Koala News says:

“Across the many voices The Koala has spoken to, a consistent theme has emerged, people are feeling worn down, fatigued and increasingly dispirited 
. [Mr Hill’s op-ed] is a signal to the sector that the settings of the past two years are not a phase, they are the foundation of a new policy era
The era of demand-driven international education in Australia is over. [Mr Hill’s statement] reaffirms the pedal is still on the gas for reform even though numbers appear to be moving in the government’s favoured direction.”

For additional background, please see:

• “Australia: Full-year data for 2025 reveals impact of AUD$2,000 study visa application fee on ELICOS sector”
• “Australia: With ELICOS under pressure, peak bodies push for reduction in ‘extortionate’ visa fees”
• “Australia: Visa rejection rates spike as some institutions withdraw admissions offers under new migration settings“

The post Australia: Latest enrolment data challenges the government’s assertion of stability for international education this year appeared first on șÚÁÏčÙÍű Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

New Zealand’s international education strategy favours managed growth over the next few years. The plan is to grow student enrolments from 83,400 in 2024 to 105,000 in 2027 and 119,000 by 2034. Between January and August of 2025, New Zealand institutions hosted 85,535 international students (+14% over the same period in 2024). This number was already higher than the full-year total in 2024, and all sub-sectors experienced growth.

Generous work rights are part of New Zealand’s strategy to increase its attractiveness to international students.

New work visa: The Short Term Graduate Work Visa

The Short Term Graduate Work Visa is for students who are not eligible for the Post Study Work Visa. It will provide 6 months of open work rights, “allowing time to look for work and, where appropriate, transition to an Accredited Employer Work Visa.”

To be eligible, applicants must hold a qualification at NZQCF at level 5–7 (i.e., certificate/diploma to bachelor’s degree) that was studied full time for at least 24 weeks in New Zealand and that does not make them eligible for a Post Study Work Visa. That qualification cannot have been an English language, foundation, or bridging qualification.

Short Term Graduate Work Visa holders will not be able to support family for a work or dependent child student visa. However, says New Zealand Immigration:

“They can check if they are able to support them for a visitor visa instead. Dependent children can also apply for a student visa as international students, and partners can apply for work visas on their own merit.”

For more on the visa and eligibility requirements, please visit this New Zealand Immigration .

Extended eligibility: Post Study Work Visa

The Post Study Work Visa allows holders to work in New Zealand for up to three years, depending on their qualification. Currently, it is eligible to students who have graduated with an NZQCF Level 7 bachelor’s degree taken full-time at a New Zealand institution but not to those who have earned a Level 7 NZQCF graduate diploma. This will change in late 2026.

Along with , applicants with the NZQCF graduate diploma will need to have completed a bachelor’s degree in New Zealand or elsewhere to be eligible for the Post Study Work Visa.

Post Study Work Visa holders are permitted to support partners and dependent children for visitor, work, or dependent child student visas, as long as requirements are met.

Education exports are growing

The “” strategy aims to double the economic impact of the international education in New Zealand over the next decade from NZD$3.6 billion in 2024 to NZD$7.2 billion by 2034.

Stats NZ data show that education-related travel exports reached NZD$4.5 billion in 2025 (up to September).

For additional background, please see:

• “What students want: The top decision factors for study abroad“
• “New Zealand announces strong foreign enrolment growth along with a new international education strategy”Ìę
• “New Zealand’s international student numbers climbing amid strong public support“

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The new fee, announced without warning on 1 March 2026, is more than 10 times, 3 times, and twice the amount that students pay for similar visas in Canada, New Zealand, and the UK, respectively. Across three increases spanning 2024, 2025, and now 2026, the Temporary Graduate Visa application fee has more than doubled.

There are also now heftier fees for post-study work applicants’ accompanying dependants. The fee for partners or dependants aged 18 and over has risen from AU$1,115 to AU$2,300, and the fee for children under 18 years of age has increased from AU$560 to AU$1,150.

Even before the latest increase, the Temporary Graduate Visa was the expensive post-study work visa in the world.

Rising costs

The fee hike follows a pattern of rising costs for international students in Australia over the past couple of years. For example:

• The non-refundable student visa (Subclass 500) fee has risen twice in the past two years and now stands at AU$2,000 (roughly US$1,400), making it the most expensive study visa fee across all destinations.

• The for living costs rose to AU$29,710 (about US$20,000) per year in 2024.

• The private health insurance premium – which almost all international students need for a visa – is set to rise by +4.4% in April 2026.

• Many Australian universities have raised their tuition fees as the cost of international student recruitment has risen amidst far tighter governmental oversight and regulations. The average year-over-year increase was more than +6% in 2025.

Price effects

When the Australian government raised the application fee for the student visa (Subclass 500) in 2025, it said the higher cost would help to weed out non-genuine students (i.e., people who use study-related visa classes for the main purpose of working and/or immigrating to Australia).

Across higher education, vocational education (VET), and English-language training establishments (ELICOS), reaction to that move was negative despite widespread support for more integrity safeguards for students and institutions alike. Critics pointed out that as the new fee was introduced, visa refusals were skyrocketing, particularly for VET and ELICOS students. Many students – especially from Southeast Asia – have paid the non-refundable fee of AU$2,000 only to be refused for a visa. The ELICOS and VET sectors have been particularly hard hit by the higher fees, which apply regardless of the student’s intended length of study in Australia.

The new application fee for the Temporary Graduate Visa – as well as its sudden announcement and immediate implication – has shocked both educators and students. interviewed a student named Jimmy (no last name given), whose student visa is soon to expire. He said:

“It sets a dangerous precedent where the government can bypass fairness at its whim to the detriment of vulnerable groups. Treating us as an ATM at the 11th hour is 
 a massive breach of trust that severely damages Australia’s international reputation.”

The National Union of Students (NUS) international officer, Ariya Masud, added to The Guardian:

“Being blindsided by the country that over 800,000 current students have called their home for years sends a clear message to international students about their standing in Australian society. [We are] regarded as ATMs to funnel a multibillion-dollar industry instead of human beings being forced into abandoning the lives and careers they’ve built here.”

A hurdle to recruitment

Australian immigration expert Dr Abul Rizvi told Vietnamese news outlet that fees for international students in Australia have been rising much faster than inflation. He said that for many students, the ability to work after studies helps to offset the cost of completing an academic programme.

What’s more, international prospects carefully consider work rights when calculating the likely return on investment (ROI) of study abroad in various destinations, as we have reported recently. The Temporary Graduate Visa application fee hike – along with high visa refusal rates – will almost certainly change the ROI calculations of many families considering study abroad.

Speaking with , Jesse Garden-Russell, president of the Council of Australian Postgraduate Associations (CAPA), said the fee hike was unfair to international graduates already struggling with high living and study costs. She continued:

“[It] sends a clear message that international graduates are being treated as revenue sources rather than valued contributors to Australia’s workforce and society. Graduates finish their studies hoping to gain work experience here, contribute to their fields and build networks – not to be hit with unpredictable, punitive costs.”

For additional background, please see:

• “How are Australian universities approaching international recruitment in 2026?”
• “What students want: The top decision factors for study abroad”
• “Australia: Full-year data for 2025 reveals impact of AUD$2,000 study visa application fee on ELICOS sector”

The post Australia doubles post-study work visa application fee appeared first on șÚÁÏčÙÍű Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

Those legislative amendments were explicitly aimed at strengthening integrity and transparency measures across the Australian sector, with the expectation that they would lead to new regulations via updates to Australia’s National Code of Practice for Providers of Education and Training to Overseas Students.

The first of those revisions to the National Code was introduced on 20 January 2026 when new rules were published to effectively ban education providers from offering commissions to education agents when an onshore student transfers to another course/institution that is not mentioned on the student’s visa.

Most recently, a 24 February update from the Australian Skills Quality Authority (ASQA) further expands on the new transparency thresholds for education agents. ASQA is the national regulator for Australia’s vocational education and training (VET) sector, and contains some important updates with respect to provider reporting on the use of education agents as well as the responsibility to disclose conflicts of interest.

The AQSA guidance also reveals that providers will soon be able to access more agent data via Australia’s system (Provider Registration and International Student Management System).

Specifically, AQSA refers to the ESOS Act’s empowerment of the Department of Education to gather data on agent performance, including:

• The number of students admitted to AQSA-accredited providers referred by education agents
• The number of student visa applications made by students supported by an agent, and the number granted or refused for each agency
• Course completion statistics for agent-referred students

AQSA adds that:

“More information about education agents will be made available to providers through PRISMS, in addition to the existing education agent data that is available. Providers will be able to access information about all agents used by all providers, not just the education agents they currently work with.”

That additional detail is understood to include reporting on:

• The number of onshore transfers associated with a given agent
• Information about agent commissions

Ownership disclosures

ASQA requires that regulated providers maintain a list of education agents they are working with, and that those agent relationships must be disclosed in PRISMS and also published on the provider’s website.

The regulator now also explicitly requires that providers notify it of any conflicts of interest arising from agency control or ownership. This amounts to a duty for registered providers to inform ASQA if their institution (or some associate of the provider) assumes a position of ownership or control with respect to an education agency. Similarly, providers must also disclose if an education agent begins to own or control the provider.

Non-compliance, cautions ASQA, is “a strict liability offence,” meaning that the offence is committed even in the absence of fault or criminal intent. Providers are referred to ASQA’s for ownership and control reporting for additional detail.

For additional background, please see:

• “Australia introduces new rules restricting agent commissions for onshore student transfers“
• “Australia passes integrity legislation; sharpens definition of agents and agent commissions“

The post Australia moving to wider sharing of education agent data appeared first on șÚÁÏčÙÍű Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

English Australia, the peak body for the ELICOS sector, has published a Market Analysis Report exploring the data. The report does not include information on enrolments and commencements because full-year numbers have not yet been released by the government, but it does give a detailed picture of demand for study in Australia under the country’s updated immigration settings and fee structures.

ELICOS visa applications down nearly 40%

On average (across all education sectors), study visa application numbers were down -14% in 2025 compared with 2024, and this is on the heels of a -21% decrease the previous year.

However, unlike for other sectors, demand for university studies in Australia remains strong: the number of visa applications filed in 2025 was greater than in 2019 despite a -2% drop compared with 2024.

It is demand for other kinds of study – especially short courses – that is plummeting. Between 2024 and 2025, visa applications fell:

• -35% for VET
• -14% for K-12 schools
• -39% for ELICOS programmes

The effect of visa application increases

The Australian government has rapidly increased study visa application fees over the past two years. In 2023, the fee was AUD$710. This increased +125% to $1,600 in 2024, then to $2,000 in July 2025.

ELICOS providers deliver courses that are far shorter, and less expensive, than university degree programmes. English Australia explains the disproportionate impact of the fee hikes on demand for English-language-only programmes:

“In 2025, the Labor government confirmed it would raise the world’s most expensive student visa application charge [then $1,600] another 25% to AUD$2,000. By this stage ELICOS applicants were experiencing the highest rate of student visa application refusal on record and were being asked to pay an average of 30% to 40% of the cost of their study to apply for a student visa that saw 1 in 4 applicants refused. The application numbers fell immediately again 
 These step-down shifts at the point of introduction of these visa fee hikes make it very clear that the AUD$2,000 non-refundable charge has made Australia far less attractive for short term students.”

The lowest volume of visa grants in 20 years

Overall, the number of visas that Australian immigration officials granted to international student applicants fell -2% between 2024 and 2025. Again, the decrease was not felt equally across education sectors:

• The higher education sector experienced a marginal -1% decline in visa approvals compared with 2024, and visa grants were actually up +14% when compared to 2019 levels.
• The VET sector saw a small increase in visa grants in 2025 compared with 2024, but this was still -45% lower than in 2019.
• K-12 schools saw -17% fewer visas granted in 2025 than in 2024. Since 2019, the decline has been -28%.

For the ELICOS sector, the severity of the decline in visa grants is illustrated in the fact that in the last six months of 2025, fewer visas were granted for study at an ELICOS provider than at any other time over the past 20 years.

The damage to the ELICOS sector since 2024 can be seen across several measures, including job losses. The visa application fee is estimated to have resulted in 5,000 to 9,000 full-time job losses over two years in ELICOS institutions.

Of all the statistics, job losses should give readers serious pause. They represent the impact to staff, institutions, and schools that have contributed greatly to the development of the ELICOS sector over many years, and, by extension, to Australia’s economy.

The stakes are very high going forward. Speaking to șÚÁÏčÙÍű Monitor late last year, David Scott, the managing director at the Sydney-based English Language Company (ELC) said:

“If the student fee is not reduced significantly and very soon, the English language teaching sector, especially private independent colleges, is likely to disappear in the next 12–24 months. The introduction of the ‘extortionate, world’s worst, non-refundable visa charge of AUD$2000’, combined with the unprecedented increase in student visa rejections, has basically dealt a mortal blow to the English language sector in Australia. The once thriving sector is disappearing quickly as students turn their backs on Australia. Why would anyone pay AUD$2000 to study a short English course in a country that is likely to reject your visa and keep the fee? It makes no sense.”

No urgency for government

English Australia notes: “The report reveals what the ELICOS sector well knows – that 2025 saw ELICOS student numbers plummet further to new record lows even after very low numbers in 2024.”

“While there were initially signs that the government was considering lowering the student visa application charge for ELICOS and other non-award enrolments, discussions appear to have stalled, and Canberra has shown no urgency on the matter.”

For additional background, please see:

“Australia: With ELICOS under pressure, peak bodies push for reduction in ‘extortionate’ visa fees“

The post Australia: Full-year data for 2025 reveals impact of AUD$2,000 study visa application fee on ELICOS sector appeared first on șÚÁÏčÙÍű Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

Up to this point, institutions or schools have been able to compensate an education agent at any point during the student’s time in Australia.

Background

The new rule appears in revisions to the National Code of Practice – formally, the – and is part of a package of amendments to the Education Services for Overseas Students Act (ESOS). Those amendments passed in November 2025 and are aimed at closing loopholes in the international sector that had allowed:

• Unethical providers or agents to profit from shady transactions commonly referred to as “course hopping.” This is where a student obtains a visa for one programme and institution, usually a higher-level course, then progresses to an often lower-level programme and institution, sometimes with the intention of working more and studying less.

• Improving the integrity of the international education sector and protecting the interests of genuine students and quality institutions by removing the ability of unscrupulous businesses to continue poor practices.

A briefing from the Department of Education underscores the point:

“This change removes the incentive for unscrupulous education agents to facilitate unnecessary or non-genuine transfers. This change will support sector integrity and ensure that agents and providers are working in the best interests of their students.”

Unpacking the new rules

There are important points to surface about the new onshore agent commission rules:

• As per the November 2025 ESOS amendments, commissions are defined as any monetary or other benefit given on behalf of an institution to an agent in connection with international recruitment. This includes bonuses, service fees, gifts, etc.

• Included in the understanding of agent are “individuals or entities on casual or fixed-term contracts that are engaging in education agent activities would be education agents.”

• The ruling only applies to agents advising students who have not completed courses. It applies to any student who has begun a course/course package for which they have a visa, and it covers withdrawals, government-mandated cancellations of a course, and switching to another course or level without completing the first one. Providers cannot offer or give commissions to agents in these cases.

• However, agents can still receive commissions from providers for above-the-board transfers when students have completed their first course (the one for which they received a visa) and then progress to another qualification (which requires a new visa).

• Onshore students are still permitted to use agents to help them in their study planning and course progression, and agents are still allowed to receive compensation from students. The ruling only applies to provider-to-agent compensation.

• Onshore students are still able to transfer between providers if they wish, if they have completed the first six months of their principal course (or the first six months of their first school course if they are a school student). But providers are not permitted to pay an agent in this circumstance.

Adjustment period for providers

Providers have some time to adjust. A Department of Education Fact Sheet sets out that:

“To give providers time to adjust to the change, the ban will not apply where the relevant overseas student has been accepted for enrolment by a provider on or before 31 March 2026. The student does not need to have commenced study on or before 31 March 2026 for this exception to apply – only acceptance for enrolment is required, i.e. the student becomes an ‘accepted student’ as defined in the ESOS Act. This allows time for providers to adjust their business practices and honour existing contracts with education agents that involve future instalments of commission payments for previously recruited students.”

Illustrative examples

The Fact Sheet also provides a helpful example of student transfers that are not bound by the new rule on agent commissions:

“A student enrols in ELICOS at Provider A and a Bachelor of Laws at Provider B and is granted a student visa for this package of courses. In the final year of the Bachelor of Laws, the student decides to pursue further study, and seeks the help of an education agent to enrol in a Master of Laws course at Provider C after completion of the Bachelor of Laws. Provider C is permitted to pay a commission to the agent, because the course will start after completion of the student’s principal course.”

And the summary also includes an example of when a provider cannot compensate an agent in the case of a packaged course:

“A student is issued a student visa on the basis of two [Confirmations of Enrolment, or CoEs], an ELICOS course at Provider A followed by a Bachelor of Laws at Provider B. Six months into the student’s Bachelor of Laws at Provider B, the student transfers to the same course, a Bachelor of Laws, at Provider C. Provider C cannot pay the student’s agent a commission or this recruitment, as this is not the specified course at the specified provider in the student’s package of courses for which their visa was granted.”

For additional background, please see:

• “Australia passes integrity legislation; sharpens definition of agents and agent commissions”

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Mr Ramirez sees 2026 shaping up to be a relatively stable year for Australian educators given an expectation that no major policy adjustments are upcoming. Recruitment efforts will be strengthened by North American competitors’ very challenging circumstances, but they will also be also more costly in the past because of the extra resources needed to stay compliant with regulations.

The national and geopolitical factors at play

The national recruitment context is a tighter policy environment governing the intake of international students; higher financial requirements and visa application fees; and more governmental scrutiny of institutions, agents, and students.

At the same time, colleges and universities in Canada are struggling amid a punishing policy landscape that includes the lowest ever cap on new international students, and US institutions are challenged by the anti-immigrant rhetoric and rules of their current president, Donald Trump.

The weaker competition from Canada and the US helped Australian higher education providers to avoid a devastating level of decline in international student commencements in 2025, which sets them up for a more positive 2026 than many of their North American counterparts can expect to have.

While students are submitting slightly fewer applications for study visas at the higher education level than in 2023, and while there was a -5.5% decrease in visa issuances in July to October 2025 compared with the same period in 2024, demand and visa grants have followed a mostly stable trendline since October 2024. In addition, the average number of days for visas to be granted also stabilised in 2025 after months of irregularity, with about 75% of higher education visas granted within 33 days. These trends suggest that Australian educators tasked with enrolment planning and management do have some predictable patterns with which to work in 2026.

Some stability, some unpredictability

Mr Ramirez believes that while Australian educators are not expecting to be surprised by any major policy twists this year, they are challenged by the unpredictability or timing of the way policies are implemented.

For example, there is still some confusion about why some visas are granted to students while others are not, suggesting a lack of transparency in this process.

There is the also the issue of the timing of New Overseas Student Commencements allocations (NOSCs). These are indicative limits given to educators for the number of new international students they should enrol in a specific year. Once an institution hits 80% of its total NOSC threshold, Australian immigration officials begin to slow down visa processing for additional applications, which acts as a curb on overambitious growth. These allocations were announced in November 2025. They are set at 295,000 for the entire sector for 2026, up modestly (+9%) from the level last year. More than half of NOSCs go to public universities.

The NOSC allocations can be stressful to manage for Australian educators. As Mr Ramirez says, “Even if you have a higher allocation, it doesn’t mean automatically that you’re going to get those students. There’s work to be done, you’ve got a pipeline of about 18 months, and there is pressure to get to your threshold of 80%. It is hard for educators to react quickly to their NOSC allocation 
 hopefully in the future the government will decide to do two-year allocations to enable more long-term planning.”

Ministry of Education data shows that the sector has already reached about half of total NOSC allocations for 2026.

Policy framework is increasing the cost of recruitment

Mr Ramirez says that the recruitment model is changing for many Australian schools and universities as a result of the current policy environment, and that unfortunately, this is a higher-cost model.

Previously, much of the recruitment effort went into attracting applications (the top of the enrolment funnel). By the time a new student was ready to enrol, the process was mostly automatic, requiring a CoE and deposit.

Now, in a stricter regulatory environment, the focus is on the lower (commencement) part of the funnel. Not only do institutions have to ensure applicants are a good fit for their school, but now they also have to ensure that the student will meet a much longer list of compliance requirements to get a visa. This requires additional staff and additional technologies, says Mr Ramirez.

Resources must also be allocated to ensuring conversions happen quickly and accurately because of the NOSC setup, especially for universities that have met or passed the 80% mark of applications. After 80%, institutions must rush to get admissions offers out to applicants as quickly as possible and to convert them, knowing that their visas are automatically going to be processed more slowly than those of students converted before the 80% threshold was met. Again, this increases recruitment costs because of the additional resources needed to ensure conversion timing and management.

How educators are adapting to the era of NOSCs

Mr Ramirez says the policy framework – including NOSC allocations and visa processing penalties for unfettered growth – has created a landscape where about half of Australian universities are growth constrained in terms of international enrolments and the other half have room to grow. This requires adaptation in recruitment practices for both groups, some of which Mr Ramirez believes will happen over time and some of which is already underway.

What is happening immediately, he said, is much more dynamism within the sector than in past years with regard to pricing. At the undergraduate level, there has been an average international student tuition fee increase of 6.3% between 2025 and 2026, compared to the average hike of 5.3% last year. At the graduate level, the average increase for 2026 is 6.5% compared to 5.3% last year.

These are the highest average fee increases Mr Ramirez has seen in the industry, and he believes it highlights the pressure Australian universities are encountering in their operations. What’s more, there is a huge range of pricing levels across the universities who provided their data for the analysis, with growth-potential institutions more likely to be implementing more significant fee increases.

The NOSC allocations are also playing a role in the increased use of scholarships in recruitment strategies. When a university reaches its 80% threshold of applications, the race is on to secure conversions as quickly as possible, and scholarships naturally help a prospective student accept an offer more easily and quickly than if this financial incentive were not offered.

Country-specific scholarships are on the rise, and in general, Mr Ramirez says many universities are being much more strategic with their scholarship programmes than in the past, targeting them carefully for maximum impact and cost management. For example, it is more common now for a university to offer multiple levels of scholarship depending on factors such as academic performance and country of origin.

The pros and cons of current Australian policy settings

Mr Ramirez’s presentation highlights that Australian educators are encountering more pressure than in the past with regard to resourcing their international recruitment and admissions functions. Recruitment success hinges more than ever on timing due to the way in which applications that happen after the 80% threshold move to a slower lane of visa processing. What’s more, the window of time with which universities can react to NOSC announcements is very small, making it difficult to use long-term planning models in enrolment management.

Australian institutions require more staff and technology now to enable the precise targeting of applicants not just for institutional fit but for visa compliance. A prospect who might well be a good fit for a university might not be as good a candidate for visa approval, and this potential mismatch adds an extra layer of difficulty into recruitment decisions.

At the same time, current policy settings are expected to remain in place throughout 2026, a welcome reprieve for an industry that has had to cope with so many new regulations and uncertainty over the past couple of years. The more stringent regulatory environment is encouraging more integrity and managed growth across the sector, which is good for the Australian education brand both at home and overseas. As Mr Ramirez says, it would be helpful to see some tweaks that would make it less costly for institutions to adjust their recruitment strategies to the regulatory framework. But overall, Australian universities may be in for a less challenging year in international recruitment than their North American counterparts.

For additional background, please see:

• “Australia passes integrity legislation; sharpens definition of agents and agent commissions”
• “Australia continues its path towards ‘managed growth’ of international student enrolments with Ministerial Direction 115”

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