Little by little, the wall gets higher

The movement to restrict African nationals from coming to the US began in the summer of 2025, when the administration stopped processing the visas of students (and other nationals) from several countries including Chad, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Libya, Somalia, and Sudan. This list was quickly expanded to include Angola, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, C么te d鈥橧voire, Djibouti, Egypt, Ethiopia, Gabon, the Gambia, Liberia, Malawi, Nigeria, Niger, Senegal, South Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zimbabwe.

In bluntest terms: Of the 54 countries in Africa, almost half made the travel ban list in the summer of 2025. Currently, African countries account for the lion鈥檚 share of all 39 countries on that list.

In January 2026, the government began targeting African students already in the US. Immigration officers were directed to pause visa processing for students from travel-ban countries applying for Optional Practical Training (OPT) and extensions, the H-1B programme, or the work component attached to J-1 visas. That same month, the pause applied to Green Card applicants from 23 African countries, many of which were on the travel ban list.

Now, in June 2026, the US State Department is from 50 consular posts to 20 designated regional hubs. This means all African students will have to travel to one of those 20 hubs to apply for a US study visa and sit for an interview. Some prospective applicants live hundreds of kilometres away from a hub. Reaching a hub may now necessitate flights and staying over in more than one city.

The impact

Policy after policy is now making it nearly impossible for many African students to study in the US. Through visa bans and high rejection rates; immigration restrictions; and now the reduction of visa processing offices, the barriers are mounting for African students hoping to study in the United States.

African markets have been the fastest growing sources of students for US universities in recent years. For example, between 2023/24 and 2024/25, according to , these were the biggest growth stories, including top 20 markets of Nigeria (#8) and Ghana (#14):

• Cameroon: +20.5% to 1,180
• Ethiopia: +10.5 to 3,400
• Tanzania: +11% to 1,140
• Uganda: +15% to 1,500
• Zimbabwe: +42% to 2,700
• Ghana: +36.5% to 12,830
• Nigeria: +9% to 21,850

Overall, African enrolments in US higher education institutions grew by +15% in 2024/25 compared with +5% for Asia, +3% for Europe, and +2.5% for Latin America and the Caribbean.

For additional background, please see:

• 鈥�US extends travel ban, Nigeria now included on restricted list鈥�
• 鈥�US: Student visa issuances fell by -36% in summer 2025; OPT uncertainty among factors affecting international student demand鈥�

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The new rule will replace the current 鈥淒uration of Status鈥� (D/S) admissions mechanism with fixed end dates, require students and exchange visitors to file formal extension applications with US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), shorten grace periods, and prevent programme changes.

We have written extensively on the rule change and so won’t unpack it in great detail again here. Suffice to say it has the potential to be extremely disruptive for current and prospective international students in the US, and is therefore of great concern to international educators and stakeholders.

The main issues are:

• The time limits imposed by the new rule are impractical for many students. Because most students will need to extend their stay beyond the four-year limit imposed by the rule, this opens the door to processing delays and, most significantly, uncertainty in the student’s academic pathway.

• The extension decision will rest with USCIS as opposed to the student’s institution as it does under the D/S system. This exposes the student, as one conference presenter put it, to “hard vetting opportunities” that could disrupt the student’s programme or prevent them from progressing to further study or to Optional Practical Training (OPT).

Because of the rule’s significance, the response from US educators and stakeholders has been considerable. The proposed rule was published in the Federal Register on 28 August 2025 with a tight 30-day public comment period that closed on 29 September 2025. Even within that short window, the filing attracted more than 15,700 comments, the overwhelming majority of which were in opposition.

In its comment, for example, NAFSA said the proposed rule “would replace a proven, flexible policy that has served the nation, international students, and exchange visitors for decades with a policy that is duplicative, burdensome and creates uncertainty.”

The Presidents鈥� Alliance on Higher Education and Immigration said that it “objects to this rule in full,” asserting that, “Implementing the rule would have significantly greater economic effects than estimated by [Department of Homeland Security] on US higher education institutions, including from the loss of the international student population and economic costs to local communities.”

Even so, on 5 May 2026, the Department of Homeland Security submitted the final rule to the Office of Management and Budget for review, which is the last procedural step before the final rule will be published in the Federal Register.

The general expectation within the sector is the rule will proceed. As NAFSA explains: “We expect OMB’s review to be expeditious and for the rule to be published in the Federal Register in the not too distant future. The final rule will go into effect 60 days after publication.”

A bipartisan appeal

Against all of that administrative process and critique, a notable, late-breaking development comes in the form of , with two Republican signatories and two Democrats.

The rare bipartisan appeal expresses the group’s concern about the proposed rule, and asks the Department of Homeland Security and the Office of Management and Budget “to preserve Duration of Status and ensure efficient visa processing policies that support a stable environment for international students and scholars.”

Reflecting some of the key points from the critical commentary filed during the 30-day period in September 2025, the letter sets out that, “Replacing D/S with a capped admission period of four years would require many students to seek repeated extensions, creating unnecessary administrative burdens, processing delays, and disruptions to academic continuity. These changes would undermine America鈥檚 ability to attract and retain top global talent at a time when competitor nations continue expanding efforts to recruit international students, researchers, and high-skilled STEM workers. Recent surveys found that nearly half of international graduate students and postdoctoral researchers would not have chosen to study in the United States if it had a fixed admission period.”

The congressional representatives also describe some of the local and national impacts of falling international enrolments: “Maintaining D/S is also vital in our efforts to strengthen domestic talent pipelines and local economies. Because international students are generally ineligible for federal financial aid and often pay full tuition, they help sustain academic programs, expand institutional capacity, and support educational opportunities for American students. In fact, for every international student enrolled at a US public university, two additional American students are able to attend鈥f the United States experiences even a one-third decline in foreign STEM graduates, the country could lose 6 to 11 percent of its high-skilled STEM workforce. Economic research estimates that such a decline could reduce the U.S. GDP by $240 to $481 billion annually within a decade 鈥� creating fewer new businesses and jobs, reducing global competitiveness, and shrinking tax revenues that support public services and infrastructure.”

For additional background, please see:

• “US to end ‘Duration of Status’ for F, J, and I visas and limit the time international students can study in the US“
• “US immigration officials allege OPT is being widely abused and say ‘more actions are forthcoming’“

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However, that recovery was short-lived. Presenting at the NAFSA conference in Orlando in late-May, Julie Baer, the deputy director of research, evaluation and learning at the Institute of International Education (IIE), shared that both enrolments and weeks decreased in 2025 compared to the year before.

The table below shows that there were 66,033 IEP students in 2025 compared with 69,705 in 2024. Student weeks fell from 768,883 to 709,705.

The nearly -8% drop in student weeks coincides with a decline in the average stay of IEP students, from 11.1 weeks in 2024 to 10.7 in 2025. This is the second-lowest average stay in eight years of tracking.

The current trend in the US is not unique 鈥� recent data show that many major English-language training destinations are seeing lower ELT enrolments and/or student weeks in 2025.

Major declines in top markets

The number of students from Japan fell by -22.8% in 2025 compared with 2024. Japan鈥檚 representation in the total number of IEP students in the US also fell to 12.5% in 2025 compared with 15.5% in 2024. As we reported recently, increasing English-language provision in Japan is depressing demand for travel for this purpose among Japanese students.

Other key markets also sent fewer students: China (-20.7%), Brazil (-22.6%), Colombia (-29.5%), and Germany (-25.5%).

There have been pronounced shifts in leading markets for IEP providers over the past few years. For example, in 2025, the top 5 markets were:

1. Japan
2. France
3. Italy
4. China
5. Brazil

In 2024, by contrast,

1. Japan
2. China
3. Brazil
4. France
5. Italy

In fact, only three markets in the top 10 posted gains in 2025, and two of them (France and Italy) were European. All Asian markets were down other than Vietnam, as were the important leading Latin American markets of Brazil and Colombia.

For additional background, please see:

• 鈥�UK ELT reports challenging enrolment trends continued through last quarter of 2025鈥�
• 鈥�Canada鈥檚 language training sector reinvents pathway programme model in response to policy settings鈥�
• 鈥�Australia: Full-year data for 2025 reveals impact of AUD$2,000 study visa application fee on ELICOS sector鈥�

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Those policies were introduced to limit the number of new international students coming into the country after years of double-digit growth. But they overshot their target: far fewer students have come to Canada since 2024 than the government predicted. The confusing rollout of each new rule reduced international students鈥� confidence in the benefits of applying to Canadian institutions.

However, a significant policy reversal in November 2025 appears to have (1) sparked new interest in Canada, and (2) improved Canadian institutions鈥� potential to recruit international students in the current immigration context.

Dramatic increase in search interest

Keystone Education Group says that in December 2025, there was a +55% year-over-year increase in international student searches for Canada on its platform 鈥� a major change after two years of decline.

The turning point for the rebound was the government鈥檚 6 November 2025 announcement that master鈥檚 and doctoral-level students would be removed from the 2026 cap on new international enrolments.

Incoming postgraduate students no longer need a Provincial Attestation Letter (PAL) for a study permit, and they are now permitted to bring their families with them. Canadian immigration (IRCC) processes those students and families鈥� applications together, eliminating any uncertainty about whether partners/dependent children will have to wait longer than students for a visa decision.

Keystone鈥檚 data also shows an uptick in master鈥檚-level interest. In October 2025, searches for this level were down by -6% compared with October 2024. Then in November, they grew by +28%. Following that, there were sustained, monthly increases:

• +55% in December 2025
• +50% in January 2026
• +21% in February 2026
• +45% in March 2026

Keystone says this pattern suggests 鈥渁 structural shift in student interest, not a momentary spike.鈥�
Mark Bennett, VP of Research and Insight at Keystone, says:

鈥淧rospective students react clearly and often very consistently to policy changes, and our search data is a great way of tracking that. What鈥檚 important here is that it鈥檚 the relative calm and clarity that seems to be having a positive effect on Canadian interest. Audiences who may have been struggling to understand Canada鈥檚 position on international education are responding to a clearer signal here.鈥�

More evidence of an upturn

Findings from IDP鈥檚 most recent Emerging Futures survey, EF9, also show that Canada is regaining popularity. As the following chart illustrates, Australia (+10%), Canada (+7%), and 鈥渙ther鈥� destinations (+9%) gained significant traction this year as destinations students are considering. This is in contrast to lower interest for the UK (-3%) and especially the US (-9%). The comparison is the data from EF9 (conducted in March and April 2026) versus data from EF7 (February 2025).

Will Canada鈥檚 momentum continue?

International students鈥� growing interest in Canada this year comes amidst a more beneficial external and internal environment than in 2024 and 2025.

External factors include:

• Significantly lower interest in the US given the second Trump administration’s immigration policy direction;
  
• More cautious recruitment on the part of UK universities given strict new compliance thresholds (including a requirement that institutions maintain a visa refusal rate of less than 5% to avoid sanctions).

Internal factors include:

• The postgraduate exemption from the cap;
  
• The ability of postgraduates to bring their families;
  
• Greater policy stability, which leads to (1) more confidence among international prospects, and (2) improved ability of institutions and agents to advise students given less confusion and volatility;
  
• More clarity on which programmes are eligible for the Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP);
  
• Higher visa approval rates for university programmes: according to IRCC data, undergraduate approvals rose from a 22% share of all approvals in 2024 to 35% in 2025, and at the postgraduate level, the jump was from 18.5% in 2024 to 30% in 2025;
  
• Last but not least 鈥� more targeted recruitment strategies by Canadian institutions.

The question of whether or not Canada can regain its footing as a preferred leading destination depends especially on the internal factors above 鈥� including policy stability.

For additional background, please see:

• “New international student permit approvals for Canada fell below COVID levels in 2025“
• “Canada: Government audit finds impact of international student cap far greater than expected“
• “Canada鈥檚 foreign enrolment has fallen by nearly 300,000 students over the last two years“
• “Canada announces international student cap numbers for 2026 and updated programme guidance“

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On 12 May, Todd M. Lyons, ICE鈥檚 acting director, called to announce that ICE has found more than 10,000 cases of fraud in the system on the part of dodgy employers and students.

Mr Lyons said that OPT has 鈥渂ecome a magnet for fraud.鈥�

He continued:

鈥淲hen OPT was created under the Bush administration and expanded under the Obama administration, DHS had anticipated only a few thousand foreign students would receive training approval before returning home. Instead, OPT ballooned into an uncontrolled guest worker pipeline with hundreds of thousands of foreign students working in the United States. As the programme size has exploded, so has the fraud.鈥�

Mr Lyons, and acting executive associate director for Homeland Security Operations (HSI) John Con, detailed the results of multiple investigations across the country, which include cases of 鈥渆mpty buildings with locked doors at addresses where hundreds of foreign students are allegedly employed 鈥� residential addresses listed as work sites for hundreds of foreign students 鈥� yet no employees were present.鈥� Mr Lyons said:

鈥淲e are discovering evidence of organised fraud that spans national and international borders. This is not accidental. It is deliberate, coordinated, and criminal.鈥�

Closing out the press conference, Mr Lyons concluded: 鈥淲e will not tolerate abuse of our programmes, and more actions are forthcoming.鈥�

In 2024/25, close to 300,000 international graduates participated in either OPT (one year) or STEM OPT (one year plus a two-year extension for STEM programme graduates).

A step toward restricting the OPT programme?

Many international education analysts believe the press conference is laying the groundwork for much stricter government oversight 鈥� or even the elimination 鈥� of the OPT programme.

There is strong political support for this direction within the governing Republican party, and as we reported last week, the director of US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), Joseph Edlow, has indicated that he wants a regulatory system that can 鈥渞emove the ability for employment authorisations for F-1 students beyond the time that they are in school.鈥�

It’s possible that a cumulative and coordinated administration strategy that gradually reduces the attractiveness of OPT 鈥� and more broadly, the opportunities for international students to work in the US after graduating 鈥� could be in play. Following are four measures whose inter-dynamics suggest this may already be the case.

1: Pause in visa processing. In January 2026, the government expanded its 39-country travel ban so it could impact not just students coming into the US, but also those already studying there. It announced that while current students from those countries could still apply for OPT, the processing of their applications would be paused. This 鈥減ause鈥� remains active. OPT applicants cannot work in the US until their application is approved, leaving them in limbo and without any sense of when processing will resume.
Strategic negative impact on OPT? Yes. It becomes harder and less attractive for international students from travel ban countries to participate in OPT.

2: USCIS to decide how long international students can stay in the US. The Duration of Status (D/S) system, which allows many students to stay in the US past their programme end date if their Designated School Official decides they have a valid reason for needing more time, is expected to be terminated in September 2026. It will be replaced by a fixed-admission structure under which students will be allowed no more than four years of admission unless they get an extension. US Citizenship and Immigration Services officials will decide whether to approve the extension. Officials will be permitted to 鈥渦se discretion,鈥� which means they can make independent judgments and choices when reviewing requests from students. They will never have met those students, relying rather on a paper or electronic submission for their decision. Most F-1 students will need the extension to be eligible for OPT given that they would exhaust the four-year admission period just by completing their degree.
Strategic negative impact on OPT? Yes. To enter OPT, students will need permission from immigration officials to stay in the US for longer than four years.

3: The framing of the OPT system as a 鈥渕agnet for fraud鈥� this week. In this week鈥檚 press conference, ICE may have been creating a context in which limiting OPT access would be justified. Mr Lyons characterised the incidences of fraud as 鈥渘ot victimless 鈥� [but] a blatant attack on the goodwill of the American people who generously allow foreign national access to our education system.鈥�
Strategic negative impact on OPT? Yes. OPT is being positioned as a backdoor immigration pathway.

4: New rules for US employers hiring H-1B workers. In the March 2026 registration cycle for the H-1B lottery, a December 2025 鈥溾�� was applied for the first time. This rule makes it more difficult for US employers to hire entry-level, highly skilled foreign workers and students.

It does so because petitions to sponsor entry-level or lower-salaried foreign workers and students receive fewer chances to 鈥渨in鈥� the lottery. There are now four salary levels in the selection process for H-1B recipients: #4 (the highest salary) gives four chances; #3 gives three chances; #2 gives two; and #1, the lowest, provides just one chance. Young international students in OPT, who represent a popular pool of H-1B prospects for employers, will be disadvantaged given their lower likelihood of being offered senior-level positions.
Strategic negative impact on OPT? Yes, indirectly. Receiving an H-1B is the primary route for highly skilled foreigners to work in the US for a considerable amount of time (three years with extensions possible to six years or even longer). It is also a dual-intent visa that allows employers to sponsor permanent residency for their H-1B workers.

By limiting the chances of international students to get an H-1B, the government also makes it less likely for them to eventually get a Green Card. The degree > OPT > H-1B > permanent residency pathway 鈥� while certainly not guaranteed 鈥� is the dream of many international students who choose the US for study abroad. Disrupting the OPT > H-1B pathway will jeopardise American universities and employers鈥� chances to attract some of the world鈥檚 top students.

Is OPT really so nefarious?

Many prominent companies, universities, and firms figure among the top employers of OPT participants. The table below is based on from 2024.

Apple CEO Tim Cook held a staff meeting in February in which he voiced his strong opposition to the Trump administration鈥檚 immigration approach. Mr Cook told employees: 鈥淔or as long as I can remember, we have been a smarter, wiser, more innovative company because we鈥檝e attracted the best and brightest from all corners of the world. I am going to continue to lobby lawmakers on this issue.鈥�

Speaking of innovation

In 2022, a report from the found that one quarter of US billion-dollar companies were founded by international graduates of US universities.

More broadly, the latest instalment of the 鈥檚 long-running 鈥淣ew American Fortune 500鈥� research programme found that in 2025, nearly half (46%) of Fortune 500 companies were founded by immigrants or the children of immigrants. Further, the American Immigration Council found that “of the 14 companies that made the Fortune 500 list in 2025 for the first time, 10 were founded by immigrants or their children.鈥�

A 2022 of American Community data found that “every additional 100 foreign-born workers with an advanced degree working in a STEM occupation creates roughly 86 jobs for U.S. workers.”

Nothing final yet

With the press conference this week, the Trump administration continues to signal that OPT is in its sights. Miriam Feldblum, president and CEO of the Presidents鈥� Alliance on Higher Education and Immigration, told in April:

鈥淭his current administration has been signaling very clearly that they鈥檙e seeking to end postgraduate Optional Practical Training. The former secretary of homeland security, the current secretary of homeland security, Republican senators have all been kind of waving the specter that there will be a proposed rule to end OPT.鈥�

For additional background, please see:

• 鈥�US to end 鈥楧uration of Status鈥� for F, J, and I visas and limit the time international students can study in the US鈥�
• 鈥�What international students need to know about study and work visas in the United States鈥�
• 鈥�US: Student visa issuances fell by -36% in summer 2025; OPT uncertainty among factors affecting international student demand鈥�

The post US immigration officials allege OPT is being widely abused and say 鈥渕ore actions are forthcoming鈥� appeared first on 黑料官网 Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

These trends are highlighted in results from the most recent by NAFSA, Oxford Test of English, and Studyportals. The survey asked respondents from over 254 universities across 36 countries about new international enrolments in the January鈥揗arch 2026 intake; perceived barriers to enrolling students; and recruitment strategies.

The research found that universities in the Big Four are struggling with policy-induced enrolment pressures, but it also revealed that they are adapting recruitment strategies for their current context. Edwin van Rest, CEO of Studyportals, commented: 鈥淯niversities that are agile, proactive and supportive of students are much better positioned to absorb visa disruption and sustain enrolment.鈥�

About the research findings

The survey sample was heavily weighted towards the US, with 149 universities from the US compared with 39 in Europe, 24 in the UK, 13 in Canada, 9 from Australia, and 9 from the Asia-Pacific region (excluding Australia). In all, about three-quarters of responding universities were in the Big Four. For this reason, the regional breakdowns in the survey report are especially valuable.

There was also a Global Enrolment Benchmark Survey wave in January to March 2025. While apples-to-apples comparisons between the early-2025 and early-2026 waves cannot be made because of the waves鈥� slightly different samples, broad trends are definitely apparent.

New undergraduate enrolments

As shown in Chart 1 below, 69% of Canadian institutions reported fewer undergraduate students in the January 2026 intake. Considered alongside the 82% that reported a drop in the Q1 2025 survey wave, this marks two years of severe contraction.

In Q1 2026, 62% of US universities welcomed fewer new undergraduate students, a greater proportion than the 48% reporting the same in Q1 2025. This suggests that recruitment challenges have intensified in the US over the past year.

The undergraduate enrolment situation in Australia and the UK appears less dire. Under half of Australian (44%) institutions reported a falloff, and just as many (44%) said they had welcomed more new international students. The picture was more balanced in the UK, with 42% saying commencements were down, 37% reporting stability, and 21% enrolling more new students.

Meanwhile, Asian and European institutions are faring very well. Fully 82% of Asian institutions saw more new undergraduate students in Q1 2026 than in Q1 2025, and none of them reported drops. In Europe, almost half (47%) of responding universities reported a year-over-year increase, which is nearly double the proportion reporting a decline (25%).

Graduate trends

As shown in Chart 2 (below), around two-thirds of Australian, British, and American universities reported lower international postgraduate commencements in January 2026. The 2026 trend is worse for British institutions than in 2025, when only half said commencements were down, but it is stable in the US.

Canadian institutions are grappling with further deterioration at the postgraduate level in 2026. Fully 8 in 10 (80%) institutions reported declines (up from 71% in Q1 2025), and none reported increases.

Meanwhile, over half of Asian universities (55%) reported postgraduate commencement gains, as did 43% of European institutions.

Significant differences in Q1 2025 and Q1 2026 survey results

Chart 3 (below) shows the difference in average reported commencements between Q1 2025 and Q1 2026. European and Asian institutions welcomed considerably more new students in Q1 2026, especially at the bachelor鈥檚 level. Masters鈥� commencements were down significantly in Australia. In Canada and the US, intakes at both levels worsened considerably. Canadian undergraduate programmes were particularly affected, while in the US, the most severe reduction was at the master鈥檚 level. While less pronounced than in North America, a downward trend is also evident in the UK at both levels.

The most pressing issues

An overwhelming majority of respondents in the Big Four cited restrictive policies as the biggest obstacle they face (Chart 4 below). The full Australian sample (100%) picked this option, as did 84% in both Canada and the US and 71% in the UK. Policies were also the top challenge in Europe, but only 59% chose this response option.

In Asia, the top three cited issues did not include policies at all. Instead, cost of study/living, English-proficiency requirements, and academic requirements were the main challenges for Asian institutions.

What lies ahead

More than 4 in 10 universities in Australia, Canada, and the UK are planning budget cuts in the next 12 months, with over a third saying the same in the US (Chart 5 below). Close to a quarter of institutions in Australia and Canada are also planning to cut staff.

The relatively supportive policy environments in which Asian and European institutions are recruiting are reflected in their plans. Fully 64% of Asian institutions have more aggressive enrolment goals, as do 31% in Europe. In Asia, more than half (55%) intend to use more AI in their operations, and 26% of European institutions do as well. The mindset is clearly one of growth, while Big Four universities have their hands full with managing tough policy contexts and associated budget and staff cuts.

Across the board, however, institutions see diversification as a necessity this year (the most cited sample-wide priority at 37%).

Sector resilience and top strategies

The top strategies being used by universities to boost international enrolments are highlighted in Chart 6, below. Introducing new programmes; diversifying/expanding geographically; executing strong branding/marketing; and offering financial incentives and scholarships were the most cited institution-led initiatives.

In addition, a notable proportion of universities reported that they had introduced January start dates to 鈥渕anage visa unpredictability and to capture students who would otherwise defer or drop out of the cycle.鈥� The report notes:

鈥淥ne global recruitment calendar rarely works well for all markets. Understanding demand by origin country can help to prioritise marketing and recruitment activities. Certain countries show a notably stronger preference for the January to March intake than their peers elsewhere.鈥�

Of the Q1 2026 findings, Dr Fanta Aw, Executive Director and CEO of NAFSA, commented: 鈥淒espite an increasingly uncertain policy environment, the survey shows that institutions willing to innovate and adapt can still create meaningful pathways for student success and access 鈥�. Institutions can and must exercise greater agency to counter serious external forces.鈥�

The study report adds:

鈥淭he right response to a shifting landscape is not to wait it out. It is to understand it better and move faster. Student demand for international education remains strong. The institutions that will capture it are the ones that treat uncertainty not as a reason to pause, but as a reason to think differently.鈥�

For additional background, please see:

• 鈥�From the Big Four to the Big Fourteen鈥�
• 鈥�Canada and the US are losing international student enrolments to Europe and Asia鈥�
• 鈥�The four key trends that will shape international student mobility for the next decade鈥�

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The proposal also suggests that students in shorter programmes (e.g., two-year master鈥檚) will need to leave at the end of their study programme unless they receive an extension, with language students allowed a 24-month maximum term of admission, including breaks and vacation time.

The government intends to abolish the 鈥淒uration of Status鈥� (D/S) system, which allows students to stay beyond the end-date on their I-20 form if they can prove they have legitimate reasons for an extension. The D/S system has been in effect for decades.

As for when the D/S system will be formally replaced, Jill Allen Murray, Deputy Executive Director of Public Policy at NAFSA: Association of International Educators, told :

鈥淲e do anticipate that it will happen soon. We know that the administration鈥檚 desire is certainly to have [the fixed time limit rule] in place so that it would be effective for students arriving in the United States in the fall. They do have a proposed a 60-day implementation period that has to happen, so working back from that, the very latest we should see the final rule is between the end of May and end of June.鈥�

The webinar was presented by NAFSA, the International Student Resource Center, and the Presidents鈥� Alliance on Higher Education and Immigration, and it was devoted to preparing institutions for the impact of the rule change.

What is being replaced?

The D/S system, which allows F and J students an extension on the admission end-date on their I-20 form if their school, college, or university determines they are progressing in their studies. The D/S system recognises that international students need flexibility when it comes to accomplishing their study goals. For example:

• A student begins their journey in an English-intensive programme (IEP) and then progresses to higher education once they have become more proficient in the language;
• A PhD student needs more than four years to finish their programme (which is very common 鈥� the average is five to eight years);
• A student completes their degree programme and then progresses to Optional Practical Training (one year) or STEM OPT (three years) to gain work experience.

These are only some of the common and legitimate study pathways offered to international students under D/S.

If a student needs to stay in the US for longer to complete their programme, they apply for an extension to the Designated School Official (DSO) at their institution, who is familiar with the student鈥檚 academic progression and performance. The DSO is authorised to make extension decisions by the Department of Homeland Security.

How will the extension process change?

According to the proposal, the DSO will no longer have power to approve the extension request. That will transfer to US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) officials, and those officials will be permitted to 鈥渦se discretion鈥� in their decisions. The date students are required to leave the US (with a 30-day grace period) will be entered on their I-94 form, linked to their passport. Students will need to make their case for an extension directly to USCIS.

Other limitations

The proposal also seeks to prohibit international undergraduate students from changing programmes or schools in the first year of their studies and graduate students from doing so at any point. Extensions will not be granted to students wanting to pursue a second degree or qualification if immigration authorities deem that programme to be at the same or lower level than the initial one.

The threat to OPT

When the government takes over the role of education institutions in deciding if a student should have more time to complete their studies, the implications will be massive, especially for students aiming to participate in Optional Practical Training (OPT). The director of USCIS, Joseph Edlow, has indicated he is prepared to restrict access to OPT. In May of 2025 at his , he said:

鈥淲hat I want to see would be essentially a regulatory and sub-regulatory program that would allow us to remove the ability for employment authorizations for F-1 students beyond the time that they are in school.鈥�

The OPT and STEM OPT post-study work streams are vital to US institutions鈥� ability to compete for international students (especially those in STEM and at the graduate level). A 2025 survey conducted by NAFSA and  found that 54% of current international students would not have chosen the US if there was no OPT option.

If it becomes too cumbersome, expensive, and uncertain to request an extension for OPT, demand will be extremely affected in the US鈥檚 top source of students, India. This is because Indians represent about half of all participants in OPT and STEM OPT.

The implications for graduate programmes

Nearly half of all international students in the US are studying at the master鈥檚 or doctoral level. The proposal includes a four-year limit for graduate programmes. Doctoral-level programmes very frequently require more time than this to complete. International student demand for graduate programmes is already down, and it will almost certainly fall further due to the proposal.

Some graduate programmes in STEM could be devastated. According to IIE data, international students account for almost 70% of enrolments in math and computer science programmes and more than half in engineering programmes. In AI-related programmes, 7 in 10 enrolments are international.

Such statistics also illustrate the huge potential of international STEM graduates to contribute to research and innovation in the US economy.

Will current students be affected?

The finalised rule is expected to apply to new students coming into the US in September 2026. Current students wanting to extend their stay beyond their programme end-date will likely need to submit a request to immigration authorities. It is possible there will be a six-month grace period for OPT students after the ruling goes into effect, as long as they do not leave the country.

Why is D/S being replaced?

The government says that the D/S setup cannot adequately address cases of fraud and visa non-compliance by international students and exchange visitors. More broadly, the change is being framed as a way to better protect national security because it will provide more opportunities for DHS to monitor the activities of international students. Students鈥� end-dates and activities will be more closely integrated into the US visa infrastructure.

In its response to the proposal, NAFSA exposed many holes in the government鈥檚 argument 鈥� including the lack of data compromising many of its points 鈥� and explained how much of the monitoring the DHS wants to do could be accomplished by making tweaks to the SEVIS system upon which D/S relies.

NAFSA has mounted a comprehensive and sector-wide effort to have the government reconsider the end of D/S or at least to significantly reconsider the proposed changes. The association has stated:

鈥淚f [the proposal] becomes final, the damage done by this rule will be felt on our campuses and in our communities and will harm our country鈥檚 standing in the world.鈥�

The 鈥渟ea change鈥� ahead

The need for students to file a request for an extension to USCIS will be anything but a procedural switch. As Joann Ng Hartmann, Strategic Initiatives Leader at NAFSA says, it will be a 鈥渟ea change.鈥�
It will introduce considerable uncertainty for students, for two main reasons:

• At present, USCIS鈥檚 processing of immigration requests has never been more backlogged. Adding international students鈥� requests for extensions to the backlog will only worsen the situation. Many students will face a long wait to see if their extension is approved. 鈥ㄢ��
  
• The granting of extensions will be in the hands of immigration officials at a time when the US government is eager to reduce the flow of foreigners into the country.

In addition, it will cause chaos for schools and colleges, according to Robin Catmur-Smith, Director of Immigration Services in the Office of Global Engagement at the University of Georgia, who was a NAFSA webinar panelist. Institutions will need to change their recruitment messaging, websites, communications, and supports for incoming and current students.

The administration burden 鈥� and needed budget 鈥� will be extremely high as well for the new compliance and procedural changes ahead. International student departments will in many cases have to be reorganised to advise and track different student profiles (e.g., J students, graduate students, incoming students, OPT students). What鈥檚 more, because the final proposal has not yet been published, institutions are in some ways flying blind as they attempt to prepare themselves, recruitment agents, current students, and incoming students for the September 2026 intake.

Where does the government proposal stand now?

The DHS review of comments and objections submitted by tens of thousands of respondents 鈥� including universities and peak bodies 鈥� is complete and the document is now final. NAFSA announced today that:

鈥淥n May 5, 2026, that will eliminate F and J “Duration of Status” to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for review. We expect OMB’s review to be expeditious and for the rule to be published in the Federal Register in the not-too-distant future. The final rule will go into effect 60 days after publication in the Federal Register. Although the text of the final rule will not be available to the public until at least 24 hours before the Federal Register publication date, we surmise that it will retain most if not all of the changes included in the proposed rule.”

Can the rule be challenged?

During the 28 April NAFSA webinar, Andrew Lyonsberg, a partner at McDermott Will & Schulte鈥檚 Supreme Court & Appellate Litigation and Government & Regulatory Litigation practice, presented as a panelist. He spoke to the question of whether the fixed time limit rule can be legally challenged.

Mr Lyonsberg, whose practice has successfully appealed past Trump administration immigration rules, says that when the final rule is published, DHS will need to present strong rationale that the need for the change outweighs the 鈥渉arms鈥� of it to students, institutions, and stakeholders. If not, this will likely clear a path to litigation.

If there is a challenge, it would likely be that the rule should be struck down because it is 鈥渁rbitrary and capricious.鈥� That legal terminology without a reasonable basis, ignoring relevant facts or logic and often appearing random, unfair, or unsupported by the evidence.

Mr Lyonsberg said that the international education community could prepare to support potential litigation by beginning to document concrete examples of harms the proposal would inflict on students, institutions, staff, and more.

The larger implications

NAFSA states:

鈥淲e are in a global competition for talent, as other countries around the world recognize the outsized economic and social benefits of international students and exchange visitors and have implemented policies to create a welcoming environment for these students to thrive.鈥�

鈥淚f finalized, the rule will foster tremendous uncertainty for many international students and exchange visitors about whether they will be able to maintain their legal status in the United States through the completion of their studies or program, discouraging students and exchange visitors from coming here, and pushing them to look for opportunities in other countries instead.鈥�

NAFSA also has related to the proposal and its implications, including:

• 鈥淧reparing for the final D/S rule. How has your office started to prepare?鈥�
• 鈥淪preadsheet for advising and staffing planning鈥�
• 鈥淧residents鈥� Alliance Survey: Share how international talent strengthens our communities鈥�

For additional background, please see:

• 鈥�What international students need to know about study and work visas in the US鈥�
• 鈥�US: Student visa issuances fell by -36% in summer 2025; OPT uncertainty among factors affecting international student demand鈥�

The post US to end 鈥淒uration of Status鈥� for F, J, and I visas and limit the time international students can study in the US appeared first on 黑料官网 Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

The decline is unfolding as Canada’s new policy settings 鈥撀燼 cap on international enrolments and other measures 鈥撀�continue to impact international students and the Canadian education system alike. The government’s reforms, which were intended to reduce the number of international students in Canada and improve programme integrity, have considerably overshot the mark.

A recent report from The Office of the Auditor General of Canada (OAG) found that the Canadian government significantly underestimated the effects of its enrolment cap and did too little to improve the integrity of the system. The Auditor General also observed: 鈥淭he department did not know why [study permit] approval rates were lower than projected.鈥�

The full-year data for 2025 from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) provides the answer: lower-than-expected permit grants were due to (1) the erosion of international student demand and (2) historically low approval rates for new study permit applications.

“Last year, IRCC processed 211,000 new post-secondary applications from prospective international students,” says a new analysis from . “Compared to 2024, demand was -55% lower year-over-year.” In other words, much fewer international students applied for a study permit last year than was the case in 2024, and this was on the heels of another substantial applications drop in 2023.

At the same time, approval rates have fallen sharply over the last five years. In 2021, 57.9% of new study permit applications were approved. That approval rate fell to 44.9% in 2024 and then took another significant step down聽to 35.7% 鈥撀爄n 2025.

These two declining trends are closely linked. Simply put, students do not need to wait for official statistics to understand that many of their peers are having their applications rejected and that they should perhaps consider other options.

Can we talk about the overcorrection?

Another newly released study, this time from the , reinforces the point: “The [enrolment] cap and related reforms are reducing [international student enrolment] in excess of the provincial and territorial allocation targets, because they damage the brand and reputation of Canada鈥檚 International Student Program鈥fter two years of caps, the 2024 policy changes seem to have reduced new study permit applications and enrolments much more than IRCC planned 鈥� and much more than provinces, territories and DLIs expected.”

The Committee’s study of the International Student Program was carried out from September to November 2025 and included testimony and written briefs from dozens of expert witnesses and organisations.

The Standing Committee finds that, “Although education and the regulation of learning institutions fall under provincial and territorial jurisdiction, the federal government was responsible for issuing an unsustainable number of study permits and allowing the system to be abused.” However, “While IRCC is attempting to reduce the number of international students in some provinces and territories, and to address overreliance on international students by colleges, its policies are impacting enrolment in regions and institutions across the country and in higher numbers than anticipated. Despite the government鈥檚 complex allocation formula, the policy is too broad and ignores regional institutional realities鈥hile universities in some regions, such as Quebec, have not generally had problems with growing international student populations too quickly, nor with housing these students, the cap has decimated enrolment from coast to coast to coast.”

In his testimony during the Committee hearings in September 2025, Alex Usher, President of Higher Education Strategy Associates, said:

“What we ended up with was a federal government that barely understood what was going on, lashing out, acting alone, doing anything it could to bring the numbers down with only the barest understanding of the system it was regulating鈥e have almost no instinct anymore for co-operative federalism. This was a clear case where governments should have been talking to one another, and they weren鈥檛. They should have been including institutions, as well. We have brutally siloed decision-making.”

Among the 10 recommendations put forward to the Government of Canada by the Standing Committee, perhaps the most compelling one is the related point that: “To give time for all actors in the international student system to adapt, and to give more certainty to current and prospective international students, the [committee recommends] that Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada consult more extensively with the provinces and territories about long-term plans for the International Student Program.”

Needless to say, the stakes are high 鈥� both for the country and for prospective students seeking access to education 鈥� and there is an urgent need for more thoughtful and effective policy making. The issues at hand transcend international student statistics and extend to the larger questions of Canada’s long-term social and economic development, in particular its ability to attract talented students, scholars, and researchers and what that means to larger national goals of innovation and productivity.

As Larissa Bezo, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Canadian Bureau for International Education, said in her Committee testimony:

“We need to be clear that this isn鈥檛 solely an immigration issue. Talent development and attraction cuts across departments and needs whole-of-government coordination.”

For additional background, please see:

• “Canada: Government audit finds impact of international student cap far greater than expected“
• “Canada鈥檚 foreign enrolment has fallen by nearly 300,000 students over the last two years“
• “Canada: Study permit numbers are in steep decline in 2025“

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