The guidance includes details of a new red-amber-green (RAG) banding scheme that sets up what could be, as Jim Dickinson wrote on , “a system more punitive than many in the sector were expecting.”

The regulatory background

In order to apply for a student visa for the UK, an international student must first obtain a Confirmation of Acceptance for Studies (CAS) document. Only a sponsor – that is, an educational institution licensed by the Home Office to sponsor international students for visas – may issue a CAS. In effect, the sponsor is vouching for the student-applicant and his/her eligibility to study in the UK.

That sponsor status places a number of obligations on the institution, and particularly that a sponsor must apply for a (BCA) every 12 months.

When UK Visas and Immigration (UKVI) carries out the BCA, it currently assesses the sponsor based on the following thresholds for three “core requirements”:

• a visa refusal rate of less than 10%;
• an enrolment rate of at least 90%; and
• a course completion rate of at least 85%.

The linkage between the three is quite explicit: the institution is expected to carefully evaluate each applicant to determine that they are eligible for admission but also, once admitted, will have a high likelihood of following through to take up their spot in their intended programme of study and then go on to successfully complete that programme. In other words, the university or college’s ability to continue to admit international students rests on its ability to recruit qualified, bona fide students that are committed to their intended programme of study.

Sponsor institutions that fall outside of those benchmarks are subject to a variety of sanctions, the most extreme of which could lead to the revocation of the sponsor license – meaning in effect that the institution could no longer admit foreign students.

The new BCA thresholds

A May 2025 UK government immigration white paper set out a number of new requirements for UK institutions, including more stringent compliance thresholds. Specifically, sponsoring institutions must now maintain:

• a visa refusal rate of less than 5%;
• an enrolment rate of at least 95%; and
• a course completion rate of at least 90%.

The draft guidance from the Home Office indicates that the first two of those new compliance benchmarks will come into effect on 1 June 2026. The course completion threshold will remain at 85% until June 2027, at which point it will rise to 90%.

RAG time

The Home Office guidance sets out that, “A sponsor’s performance against the three metrics composing the BCA will be rated in a Red-Amber-Green (RAG) banding system.”

Essentially, sponsors with a red rating are operating at or below one or more of the BCA requirements. An amber rating indicates that the sponsor is in danger of non-compliance with respect to one or more of the key benchmarks, whereas a green rating means that the institution is more comfortably within the compliance threshold.

The margin for error, however, is notably slim across the key BCA metrics. The following table summarises the band ranges for each requirement.

“Look at the width of the amber band – or rather, the near-total absence of it,” says Wonkhe’s Dickinson. “On refusals it’s a single percentage point. On enrolment it’s a single percentage point. On completion it’s two. The amber band is extremely narrow.” In other words, the distance to travel between green and red is very narrow indeed.

The significance of those very tight thresholds is driven home by another key aspect of the RAG system: there is no overall scoring across metrics; rather, the sponsoring institution’s rating will be based on their lowest-rated BCA requirement.

The Home Office guidance sets out that: “The RAG rating system is not an aggregate. A sponsor’s rating shall be determined by their lowest rated metric, which will take precedence over any other metric’s score. For example, if the sponsor falls into the red category for their refusal rate, yet falls into the green category for both their enrolment and completion rates, they will receive a red RAG rating.”

Against the advice of sector stakeholders, including Universities UK, the Home Office also intends to make sponsor ratings public, indicating that “a sponsor’s RAG rating will be published on the student sponsor register.” This provision will apply to the first BCA assessment cycle after 1 June 2026, meaning that public ratings won’t likely be available for a critical mass of UK higher education institutions until spring or summer 2027.

Recruitment impacts

“We welcome stronger compliance in principle, but the cumulative impact on UK recruitment should not be underestimated,” says Peter Skillen, the Director of Governance, Risk, Assurance, and Compliance at Study Group. “What may appear to be a technical tightening on paper could have a real chilling effect in practice. The government’s white paper proposed raising each BCA metric by five percentage points and introducing a new RAG banding system, but the draft guidance appears to go further in the way that framework is operationalised. With narrow amber bands, a lowest-metric-wins approach, and final warnings that can remain active for five future Basic Compliance Assessments, institutions may become increasingly selective in their recruitment behaviour, particularly in emerging markets. The risk is that the system becomes more draconian and overbearing for institutions, compelling them to carry out ever more stringent compliance checks and absorb growing administrative burdens. The unintended consequence may be a UK system that is less accessible to genuine international students, with some institutions deciding that recruitment from certain countries is no longer viable.”

The new BCA compliance thresholds were first announced almost a year ago in the government white paper in May 2025. In the months since, there have been a number of signals that institutions are both anticipating and responding to a more stringent compliance regime.

There is after all a significant exercise of risk management at the heart of the CAS-sponsor-compliance model as the three key BCA metrics rest a great deal of responsibility for student performance and student outcomes with the institution itself.

“The rationale behind the new RAG scheme is hard to argue with: stronger compliance should help ensure universities issue CAS only to genuine, well‑prepared students, protecting educational standards and the UK’s international reputation,” says Diana Beech, the Assistant Vice-President (Policy & Government Affairs) at City St. George’s, University of London.

However, the scheme’s razor‑thin thresholds and ‘lowest‑metric‑wins’ approach are not without risk. With so little margin for normal variation, even responsible institutions could be pushed into the red – and publishing these ratings will only intensify that pressure. The result may be overly cautious recruitment, fewer opportunities for legitimate students, and a narrowing of global engagement.

Enhanced compliance matters. But it needs a framework that is proportionate, supportive, and avoids penalising compliant institutions for factors they cannot fully control.”

Indeed, some institutions are already responding reducing or suspending recruiting activities in countries that are seen to be associated with higher risk. “Higher risk” in this sense being defined as markets where students are more likely to not follow through on their study plans or to complete their programmes of study – often for reasons relating to academic background, language skills, or financial difficulty.

In July 2025, for example, London Metropolitan University said that it would suspend admissions for Bangladeshi students. Deputy Vice-Chancellor Gary Davies has attributed the decision to high rates of visa refusals for Bangladeshi students in particular, which were putting the university’s compliance at risk.

Earlier this month, the University of Derby said that it too would suspend student recruitment from Pakistan and Bangladesh over concerns that visa refusal rates for applicants from the two countries were simply too high.

Other UK institutions have reportedly – although less publicly – made similar decisions to limit or suspend admissions from specific markets and/or for particular fields of study where there is seen to be undue compliance risk.

On their face, any such moves are extreme measures and regrettable in that they limit opportunities for bona fide students from markets that are seen to have high risk levels attached. But they also perfectly illustrate the dilemma that UK universities now face under the new BCA benchmarks. With such narrow RAG bands – a green rating requires, for example, that universities maintain a visa refusal rate under 4% – an individual university must either take additional steps to more fully qualify prospective students before issuing a CAS or they have to limit (or even suspend) recruitment in markets or channels that are judged to have greater compliance risk.

Needless to say, each of those broad courses of action carries significant additional costs – in terms of real expenses, risk, or foregone opportunities – for institutions, partners, and students alike. In the meantime, the Home Office has indicated that it is actively engaged in discussions across the sector around the draft guidance and that final guidance and details for implementation of the more stringent BCA requirements will be published shortly.

For additional background, please see:

• “UK’s stiffening compliance regime already having an impact on international student recruitment“
• “UK sets out new immigration strategy, will reduce Graduate Route work term to 18 months“
• “UK: International student numbers fall for second year, especially in postgraduate programmes“
• “How the UK’s Agent Quality Framework will shape the future of agent training“
• “Who decides about quality? Education agents and the question of increased regulation“

The post Narrowing bands of compliance: How the UK’s new RAG system will impact international student recruitment appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

In a November 2025 survey conducted by the (BUILA), 42 of the 69 responding universities (61%) reported a decrease in postgraduate commencements for the academic year beginning September 2025. The respondents indicated that foreign enrolments were down -6% year-over-year.

This compares to BUILA’s fall 2024 survey, which reported an even steeper decline, with 80% of responding institutions reporting falling international postgraduate numbers and a -20% decrease overall.

BUILA adds of this year’s survey that, “The steepest declines were from China, with 80% of universities reporting enrolment drops averaging -17%, and India, where 63% of institutions saw an average fall of -9%.”

Additional data from the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) underscores the importance of that declining trend across UK higher education, and particularly with respect to advanced degree studies. HESA reports that international students accounted for 71% of all full-time postgraduate students in the UK in 2023/24, 16% of full-time undergraduate enrolments, and 25% of higher education enrolments overall for 2023/24.

“Universities across the board continue to operate in a very uncertain environment, seeing their international student numbers fall as recent policy changes take effect,” said BUILA Chair Andrew Bird. “Institutions are working hard to recruit students from diverse countries to support the internationalisation agenda and offer broad programmes for both UK and overseas leaners. With global competition intensifying, the Government must act to protect the UK’s reputation as a world-leading study destination while balancing its immigration agenda.”

Pointing specifically to the forthcoming international student levy and strengthened compliance requirements, Mr Bird also urged the UK government to “deliver a much-needed period of stability for the sector.”

Visa issuances and applications also down

The latest BUILA survey findings can be set against a backdrop of additional data that all points to a softening of foreign enrolments in the UK over the last two years. HESA data for 2023/24 highlights a -3.5% year-over-year decline in total international enrolments, representing the first such decrease in the last decade.

More recently, rolling data from the UK Home Office paints a picture of declining volumes of student visa applications as well as student visa issuances.

As we see in the following chart, visa application numbers have . “Sponsored study visa [applications] follow seasonal patterns, peaking in August, ahead of the start of the academic year (with a second smaller peak in December). [The chart] shows that applications from Sponsored study visa main applicants in the year ending November 2025 were 7% higher than the year ending November 2024, but 12% lower than the year ending November 2023.”

Similarly, the number of student visas issued by the UK . From a high of 623,698 that year, the number of study visa issuances fell to 604,253 in 2023 and again to 418,932 in 2024. Those visa volumes may be stabilising this year as data for the year ending September 2025 (which is the most recent quarterly data release available at this writing) shows that volumes are essentially flat compared to the year ending September 2024.

For additional background, please see:

• “UK’s stiffening compliance regime already having an impact on international student recruitment“
• “UK confirms international fee levy of £925 per student starting August 2028“
• “Full-year data highlights decline in foreign enrolment in UK universities in 2023/24“

The post Foreign enrolments in UK higher education dipped again in fall 2025 appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

A case in point is Canada, where the recruitment activities of a small number of colleges and universities led to blanket policies that have negatively impacted hundreds of reputable institutions.

Fast forward to 2025, and the UK’s higher education sector is finding itself vulnerable because of a small number of universities leveraging an exemption in a policy known informally as the Dependants Ban.

The ban and its exceptions

The Dependants Ban was introduced in January 2024, and it prevents most international students from bringing their family with them to the UK. The intent of the policy is to reduce non-skilled migration and asylum claimants.

The exceptions to the ban are students on scholarships, those enrolled in Master of Research programmes (MRes), and doctoral-level students. Those students’ family members are permitted to come as accompanying dependants. The rationale is that students enrolling in these programmes tend to be especially focused on academics, research, and skills needed by the UK economy.

In contrast with MRes, most master’s programmes are “taught,” and along with undergraduate courses, they are affected by the Dependants Ban. Since the ban was enacted, taught master’s programmes have experienced the most severe drop of all levels in terms of new international student enrolments. Meanwhile, MRes are the only level to have experienced growth.

BUILA, the organisation supporting the work of international higher education staff in the UK, that of all international student searches on Keystone’s findamasters.com and findaphd.com sites in January–February 2025, nearly half (49%) were for MRes courses, up from 23% the previous year. Demand for MRes is now higher than for any other postgraduate category including taught MBAs and MScs.

A surge in demand for MRes

Until recently, Master of Research programmes composed a very small portion of all postgraduate degrees offered in the UK. However, as the Dependants Ban has so adversely affected postgraduate taught programmes, some universities have developed more MRes capacity as a way of boosting international student revenues and retaining research funding and capabilities.

In 2023/24 –��the first academic year where data would have reflected the effect of the Dependants Ban on international student demand –�� HESA data show that postgraduate taught courses enrolled -9.9% fewer new international students than the previous year, while MRes saw a +5.7% increase. The contrasting trends have since accelerated. UK institutions participating in the Office for Students (OfS) Higher Education Students Early Statistics (Heses)��survey in mid-2024 reported at the postgraduate taught level compared to a +22% increase in new MRes enrolments.

The government investigates

The government is aware of the activity around MRes. reports that “the Home Office is considering changing this rule to crack down on apparent abuse��by some universities” and that “there are fears within the sector” that those universities’ actions may drive the government to include MRes students in the overall Dependants Ban.

The main focus is on roughly two dozen universities – and/or agents recruiting for them – that are allegedly promoting MRes abroad as a route through which students can bring their families with them to the UK, obtain free education for their children, and gain access to three years in the post-study Graduate Route work programme rather than two years or taught master’s. (Editor’s Note: the Graduate Route will be shortened to 18 months for undergraduate and taught master’s students in 2027.)

In December 2024, application and deposits data showed a��45% year-over-year increase��in international students choosing MRes.

Sectoral leaders sound the alarm

Adam Tickell, vice-chancellor and principal of the��University of Birmingham,��spoke at the annual and said:

“There are universities in this country where you do one year effectively unsupervised which are branded as MRes degrees but the reason they exist is they give you access to dependant visas. There is no way that is anything other than an intent to grow a market within the intent of the law.”

The peak body for the sector, Universities UK, has cautioned its members to avoid increasing MRes enrolments any further. Its president, Malcolm Press, warned that the issue has��“the potential to undermine the sector’s position as a trusted and responsible partner in the UK’s immigration system.”

The UK’s international education champion, Sir Steve Smith, called for the sector to act collectively if it wants to avoid a policy crackdown. Tim Bradshaw, Chief Executive of the Russell Group, concurred: “It’s in the interests of universities, students and the public to tackle any fraud and abuse of the visa system.”

Highlighting the extent of worry in the sector, at least one major UK university is said to have , asking “agent partners to immediately scale back and cap MRes enrolments to just 25% of their total CAS usage.” In such an event, agents have to pivot immediately and often with negative impacts on their business and the students for whom they have obtained university offers.

Protecting research talent

Mr Bradshaw also noted what is at stake not only for the sector, but also for the country:
“MRes are long-standing programmes critical to the long-term [research and development]��workforce pipeline. We want to see the government maintain a supportive visa system that continues to welcome global talent.”

This is another component of the story: the need to protect strong MRes programmes that have operated ethically for years. Commenting on , recruitment agent Michael Ijaiyemakinde wrote:

“An angle I’d like to contribute is this: how do we distinguish between universities that have long offered genuine, high-quality MRes programmes, and have benefitted from the presence of international students in meaningful ways, from those that may be exploiting recent demand?”

Mr Ijaiyemakinde’s question prompted another reader to propose that the government should target MRes programmes that do not demand a research proposal for admission (which others on the thread thought was an interesting idea, as this process signals a lack of rigour).

The dilemma of international education

As always, international education sits at a crossroads: it is both an industry and an innovation pipeline that can mitigate the economic and social effects of ageing populations. Industry self-regulation, as proposed by Mr Press, Mr Bradshaw, and Sir Steve Smith, is crucial to ensuring the sustainability of the sector and the ability of a country to invigorate its labour force with international talent.

When the sector collectively steps up to address problems within it, it positions itself as a worthy contributor to solutions. This may be the best way of avoiding blunt-force policies that damage all institutions and international students rather than just the segment of unethical actors.

Mr Press : “We would urge government to continue working with us and to use the targeted interventions that were incorporated into the regulatory framework to address this issue – rather than imposing further blanket restrictions unnecessarily.”

For additional background, please see:

• “UK to implement reduced graduate route from January 2027”
• “UK confirms international fee levy of £925 per student starting August 2028”
• “UK’s stiffening compliance regime already having an impact on international student recruitment”
• “UK sets out new immigration strategy, will reduce Graduate Route work term to 18 months”

The post UK: Rule changes could be coming for Master of Research programmes appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

The change was included in legislative amendments tabled in Parliament on 14 October. The move, explains an accompanying statement from the Home Office, is necessary “to ensure graduates contribute effectively to the economy.” It comes about, adds the statement, “after data clearly showed that many holders had not transitioned into graduate-level employment as intended.”

Critics have argued that the change will have no material effect on net migration to the UK, and stakeholders in UK higher education have said that the move will diminish the country’s appeal to foreign students.

An prepared by the Home Office to accompany the proposed legislation sets out that, “The Graduate route changes are expected to have a modest impact on student visa demand. It is provisionally estimated a long-term reduction of approximately 12,000 student visa applications per annum.”

Just how much student demand will be impacted will be a subject of some debate going forward. Commenting on the Home Office’s confirmation of the reduced Graduate Route, Keystone Education Group’s vice president of research & insight Mark Bennett said, “Crucially, this applies to applications for the visa, not the course. That means most future applicants will be impacted and so will current students on courses lasting more than 12 months (e.g., bachelors and two-year master’s).”

By Dr Bennet’s reckoning, most undergraduate and master’s students currently on course will be affected.

For students beginning in January 2026 and onwards, for example, all bachelors and most (if not all) master’s enrolments will complete after the January 2027 cut-off. The same is true for undergraduates who began their programmes in September 2025, while one-year master’s graduates will have a short window to apply for post-study work if they graduate on time in fall 2026.

“I’m sure I’m not the only person to find some of this disappointing,” adds Dr Bennet, “in so far as it alters the expectations of people who are currently applying, preparing for (or studying) a UK degree – and this in a heavily disrupted year for international education generally. We’ve seen very strong trends for interest in UK study across Keystone’s student platforms this year, particularly at the master’s level where search has been up more than 50% compared with last year for several months now. Some of this has been due to the ‘pull’ of the UK, but ‘push’ factors are also in play, as interest shifts globally.”

“Things were looking good for January 2026. But the news that (most) of those students will now receive a shorter post-study-work entitlement is definitely going to have an impact. The question is: how much?”

The debate will gain additional dimensions as this week’s legislative changes have also introduced an additional series of changes to “position the UK as a global leader in attracting highly skilled talent.”

Those include an expansion of the (HPI) route for graduates from the top 100 universities globally. The HPI programme will now be capped at 8,000 applications per year, with the ambition of doubling the number of people coming to the UK via this channel from 2,000 to 4,000 per year, and a goal of “giving graduates from the world’s best universities the chance to base their careers in the UK.”

The will also provide an expanded pathway for eligible entrepreneurs “to seamlessly establish innovative business ventures in the UK after concluding their studies.”

For additional background, please see:

• “UK sets out new immigration strategy, will reduce Graduate Route work term to 18 months“
• “UK’s stiffening compliance regime already having an impact on international student recruitment“
• “UK confirms levy on international student fees as new analysis argues that government is ‘drastically underestimating’ the impact of the move“

The post UK to implement reduced Graduate Route from January 2027 appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

The question hinges on the core immigration mechanisms for international students in the UK. In order to apply for a student visa, an international student must first obtain a Confirmation of Acceptance for Studies (CAS) document. Only a sponsor – that is, an educational institution licensed by the Home Office to sponsor international students for visas – may issue a CAS. In effect, the sponsor is vouching for the student-applicant and his/her eligibility to study in the UK.

That sponsor status places a number of obligations on the institution, and particularly that a sponsor must apply for . When UK Visas and Immigration (UKVI) carries out the BCA, it currently assesses the sponsor based on the following thresholds for three “core requirements”:

• a visa refusal rate of less than 10%;
• an enrolment rate of at least 90%; and
• a course completion rate of at least 85%.

The linkage there is quite explicit: the institution is expected to carefully evaluate each applicant to determine that they are eligible for admission but also, once admitted, will have a high likelihood of following through to take up their spot in their intended programme of study and then go on to successfully complete that programme. In other words, the university or college’s ability to continue to admit international students rests on its ability to recruit qualified, bona fide students that are committed to their intended programme of study.

Institutions that are found to have fallen outside of those benchmarks may be placed on . This is essentially a probationary mechanism, typically ranging from three to six months, that provides “a sponsor who has committed a breach, short of a serious breach, an opportunity to improve its processes in order to avoid any further breaches.” UKVI adds that, “An action plan sets out specific actions that a sponsor must take by a given review date,” pending the successful conclusion of which a sponsor may be taken off the action plan and carry on in good standing.

In the worst case, a sponsor found to be in more serious breach of compliance requirements, or who does not successfully progress through the action plan process, could have their sponsor license revoked by UKVI for up to two years.

Coming back to the white paper

When the immigration white paper was released in May, a lot of the initial reaction centred around the government’s decision to curb post-study work rights for international students by reducing the term of the Graduate Route from 24 to 18 months.

In the months since, however, the more stringent compliance requirements set out in the white paper have come to be seen as its most impactful component. In short, the government intends to increase the compliance thresholds by 5% across the board so that the new core requirements for the BCA will be:

• a visa refusal rate of less than 5%;
• an enrolment rate of at least 95%; and
• a course completion rate of at least 90%.

The white paper also sets out a number of related measures, including the following.

• A new, public-facing Red-Amber-Green banding system indicating the BCA performance of each sponsor, “so that it is clear to them, the authorities and the public which institutions are achieving a high rate of compliance, and which are at risk of failing.”

• Beyond the action plan, new measures for sponsors that are falling short of, or straying too close to, the BCA compliance thresholds, including “limits on the number of new international students they can recruit.”

• A requirement that all sponsors that are engaged with education agents sign up to the Agent Quality Framework.

The Home Office has indicated that these new measures will be implemented for the 2025/26 academic year, beginning as early as September.

A more stringent approach

There is already some indication that UKVI has been applying a more rigorous approach in BCA assessments this year. Earlier this month, for example, the University of Essex and Glasgow Caledonian University were placed on action plans. They join the University of Central Lancashire, which has been on an action plan since December 2024, and a small group of additional education providers who have moved in and out of action plans through the first half of 2025.

Commenting on LinkedIn, Nous Group Director Nicholas Dillon said, “Looking at the two universities affected, you can see variants on the same story – a massive increase in in full-time [postgraduate taught] students from Pakistan, Nigeria, and India…These are far from the only universities with this narrative – though they are the ones caught up right now. And the change from a 10% to a 5% refusal rate will only make this a larger challenge.”

In a related comment to , Jonathan Hill, a senior manager with the immigration law firm Fragomen, said that UKVI had “stepped up” its audit activity this year. He added: “We are seeing quite a stringent view on these audits by UKVI and they’re taking quite a hard-line approach when it comes to how they’re assessing institutions, so that can also cause an action plan.”

How will this affect recruitment?

There is an element of risk management at the heart of the CAS-sponsor-compliance model. Indeed, these mechanisms rest a great deal of responsibility for student performance and student outcomes with the institution itself.

“The tougher BCA thresholds will require student sponsors to reassess their international student recruitment strategies in order to protect their BCA metrics,” says immigration lawyer Anna Blackden.

Some institutions are already responding reducing or suspending recruiting activities in countries that are seen to be associated with higher risk. “Higher risk” in this sense being defined as markets where students are more likely to not follow through on their study plans or to complete their programmes of study – often for reasons relating to academic background, language skills, or financial difficulty.

Last month, for example, London Metropolitan University said that it would suspend admissions for Bangladeshi students. Deputy Vice-Chancellor Gary Davies has attributed the decision to high rates of visa refusals for Bangladeshi students in particular, which were putting the university’s compliance at risk.

Other UK institutions have reportedly – although less publicly – made similar decisions to limit or suspend admissions from specific markets and/or for particular fields of study where there is seen to be undue compliance risk.

A related commentary from Universities UK International (UUKi) says of the heightened BCA thresholds: “UK universities welcome talented students from around the world. These changes will help prevent abuse of the visa system by non-genuine actors. Agents have a very important role to play in supporting visa compliance and universities will continue to work closely with their agents to make sure their processes are as effective as possible. 

UUKi will work closely with UK universities and the Home Office on rolling out a phased approach to implementing these tightened BCA thresholds, and on what constitutes each of the red-amber-green bands. These measures will not require rules changes but rather updates to sponsorship guidance for institutions recruiting international students.”

For additional background, please see:

• “UK sets out new immigration strategy, will reduce Graduate Route work term to 18 months“
• “New analysis sounds a note of caution for UK immigration reforms“
• “Who decides about quality? Education agents and the question of increased regulation“

The post UK’s stiffening compliance regime already having an impact on international student recruitment appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

The overall decline was only -1%, but underlying that was a -7% decline in foreign enrolments. That dip was driven in turn by major decreases in some of the top overseas sending markets for UK higher education: Nigeria (-36%), and India (-15%). Enrolments were also down by -4% from China.

A total of 732,285 international students were enrolled in UK universities that year, with 656,735 from non-EU countries.

Taught master’s programmes bore the brunt of the decline

In 2024, international students in taught master’s programmes joined the ranks of those in undergraduate programmes in being banned from bringing their family with them to the UK (the so-called dependants ban). Only international students in research-oriented graduate programmes and those on government scholarships are now permitted to bring their families with them.

Taught master’s had been incredibly popular among international students, not least because many of these programmes take only a year to complete. Their short duration meant they were a relatively affordable option for students wanting a UK-earned graduate credential that would also let them pursue post-study work opportunities and possibly permanent residency in the UK.

The dependants ban was announced in the summer of 2023, and data show that as soon as many international students discovered it would apply to them as of January 2024, they changed their study abroad plans. This trend was much more pronounced in markets where bringing family is considered essential – for example, Nigeria – and less pronounced in EU markets and China (where many students go back home after completing their degrees).

The HESA data show student numbers fell for all levels of study except postgraduate research degrees. They were down -1% for undergraduate programmes and a much more severe -8% for taught master’s degrees.

That said, international students continued to compose more than 60% of all students in full-time postgraduate courses in the UK in 2023/24.

Top non-EU markets

India (166,310) remained the top market for UK universities in 2023/24, growing much more steeply than #2 China (149,885) over the past five years, as shown in the chart below. Rounding out the Top 10 were Nigeria (57,505), Pakistan (45,720), US (23,250), Hong Kong (17,250), Malaysia (12,760), Nepal (12,715), Bangladesh (12,285), and Saudi Arabia (9,680).

Top EU markets

With one exception, EU enrolments in UK universities have declined among the Top 10 EU sending markets since 2021/22. That exception is Ireland, which is now the top EU country for UK educators (9,690). The graph below illustrates the sharpness of some of the declines in other EU markets.

Student numbers in TNE degree programmes surge

In contrast to home-based enrolments, enrolments in UK transnational education (TNE) offered outside of the country rose by 8%. More than 620,000 students were “either registered overseas at a UK higher education provider or studying for a UK higher education qualification in 2023/24.”

More recent trends

While the HESA data are for full-year 2023/2024, other data show more recent trends in visa issuances. In 2024, 393,125 sponsored study visas were issued to main applicants (i.e., students) in 2024, a 14% drop compared with 2023. Visas issued to Nigerian and Indian students declined by -55% and -26%, respectively.

In brighter news, in January 2025, according to Home Office data, students submitted 28,700 applications for sponsored-study visas, a 13% increase over January 2024.

For additional background, please see:

• “UK: Study visa applications and issuances on the rise in 2025”
• “UK: Reduced demand from India, Nigeria, and Bangladesh drive a 14% decline in sponsored study visas in 2024”

The post Full-year data highlights decline in foreign enrolment in UK universities in 2023/24 appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

Since January 2024, most international students have not been allowed to bring their family with them while they study in the UK. The only exceptions are for students in research-oriented postgraduate programmes and those on government-sponsored scholarships.

Prior to the ban, students in taught master’s programmes had been permitted to bring family with them, which was a key reason these programmes were so popular in emerging markets. That popularity has waned since the launch of the dependants ban. As reported in Times Higher Education, the share of study visas for master’s programmes fell from 66% in 2023 to 61% in 2024. The countries accounting for the most master’s visas are now, in order, India, China, and Pakistan.

As shown in the chart below, there was an 84% decrease in dependant applications for the year ending January 2025.

A 14% drop in sponsored study visas

A total of 393,125 sponsored study visas were issued to main applicants (i.e., students) in 2024, a 14% drop compared with 2023. This percentage drop is very close to the 15% decline we predicted last year in an article on dependants, which also noted that:

“The largest losses [if partial-year data trends were to hold] would be from non-EU countries, including Nigeria and India … [except that] the impact on Chinese students would be minimal if we go by ‘dependant-to-main-applicant ratio’ trends. That ratio was 1.16 for Nigerian students compared to less than 0.01 for Chinese students.”

Sure enough, visas issued to Nigerian and Indian students declined by -55% and -26%, respectively, in 2024 versus 2023. Issuances for Chinese students, by contrast, fell by only -6%.

The far gentler softening of the Chinese market saw China regain its position as the top international student source country for UK educators, reversing a two-year trend in 2022 and 2023 where India had held that spot. India is now second, with 88,860 visa issuances compared with China’s 102,940 in 2024.

Visas for Indian students fell at both the master’s and undergraduate levels. Nicholas Dillon, Director of Nous Group, about the Indian undergraduate trend: “Interesting to see such a fall in a market for a cohort that’s not directly affected by the dependent visa changes (and interesting that it happened notwithstanding Canada’s clamp-down).” It seems clear that Indian students are considering a much wider range of options for study abroad than in the past.

Nigeria and Pakistan switch spots, and Nepali demand remains strong

The drastic -55% drop-off from Nigeria – paired with a somewhat surprising 13% increase from Pakistan – means that Pakistan is now the UK’s number three student market, with Nigeria bumped to fourth.

Pakistan’s overall surge happened even with an 85% decline in visas issued to Pakistani dependants, highlighting exceptionally strong demand from Pakistan for UK education. The dependant-to-main-applicant ratio for Pakistan had actually been slightly higher than for India before 2024 (0.37 versus 0.31, respectively) – so the dependants ban seems to have been considerably less influential on study abroad decision-making in Pakistan than in India. Visa issuances to Pakistani students increased at both the undergraduate and postgraduate level.

As with Pakistan, demand from Nepal remains strong, with 44% more visa issuances in 2024 than 2023 and growth at both the undergraduate and postgraduate levels. Nepal now represents the third largest undergraduate market for the UK and the sixth largest overall.

Other non-EU markets weaken, for various reasons

Some other important student markets for the UK weakened. Within the Top 10, the largest drops in study visa issuances were for Malaysia (-12%), Hong Kong (-15%), Saudi Arabia (-16%), and especially Bangladesh (-31%).

The fall-off from Bangladesh is likely tied to the dependants ban, given a very high dependant-to-main-applicant ratio over the past couple of years (1.01%).

Declines from Malaysia and Hong Kong may have more to do with the rise of alternative destinations in Asia, including Malaysia’s and Hong Kong’s ambitions to become regional education hubs. Universities UK points out that Malaysian demand has been dropping in recent years both for study in the UK and for study in Malaysia via UK transnational education arrangements. At the same time, Malaysia has a goal of attracting 250,000 foreign students by 2025.
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Hong Kong has also set its sights on recruiting more international students. In 2019/20 there were 12,350 undergraduate international students in Hong Kong universities, and this rose by 20% to 14,760 in 2024. Most of those students are from China, but India is a growing priority. Hong Kong’s eight public universities joined together last year , especially those who are strong in STEM.
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Meanwhile in the Middle East, both the UAE and Saudi Arabia are increasing foreign partnerships and branch campuses to attract more foreign students.
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Top 10 markets for the UK according to study visa issuances, 2024
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China:102,940
India: 88,860
Pakistan: 35,045
Nigeria: 18,900
US: 15,275
Nepal: 12,235
Bangladesh: 6,400
Malaysia: 5,420
Hong Kong: 5,180
Saudi Arabia: 4,875

For additional background, please see:

• “Student mobility in MENA boosted by foreign partnerships and branch campuses”
• “UK: Study visa applications and issuances on the rise in 2025”
• “Malaysia’s growing appeal as a study destination”

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The 2024-25 INTO Arrival survey was conducted among 2,261 international students from over 100 countries enrolling in universities in the UK and US. The survey revealed that in addition to visa issues, barriers to study abroad include financial concerns related to unpredictable costs of living and studying.

Visa delays have several negative impacts

The survey found that:

• One in five (21%) students reported visa appointment and processing delays as the top reason for postponing their confirmation of university placement, rising to 28% in South Asia.
• Of students who missed orientation services offered by their institution, 45% said that visa issues were the reason.

Of all students who reported visa delays, about 20% said visa delays added at least a month to the timing of their response to an admissions offer.

These findings indicate that many students’ journeys to enrolment – and first impressions of their institution – are poorer because of unreliable visa processes outside of their control.

INTO CEO John Sykes said:

“These findings serve as a powerful message for governments, educational authorities, and universities to work together in addressing visa delays, ensuring students are supported in their aspirations to study abroad. At INTO, we are dedicated to overcoming these challenges, driving positive change in international education, and continuing to create transformative opportunities for students to succeed in an increasingly interconnected world.” 

Students are applying to more institutions in more destinations

The work of admissions staff is complicated by students postponing their studies because of visa delays. In addition, staff are dealing with more unpredictability than ever due to a growing trend of students applying to multiple institutions.

In 2024/25, students enrolling in INTO-partnered UK universities said they had applied on average to +21% more higher education institutions than had those who had enrolled in 2022/23. Similarly, surveyed international graduate students applying to US universities in 2024/25 applied to 23% more institutions in 2024/25 than those applying the previous year.

“Waiting for offers from other institutions” was the second-most cited reason for delaying a confirmation of enrolment in the INTO survey.

And it becomes increasingly clear that, even as students are applying to more institutions, they are also exploring options in a wider range of study destinations.

The survey report adds:

“Over half of students considered alternative destinations before choosing the UK or US, with over 40% of those considering alternatives beyond the traditional “Big 4”— the UK, US, Canada, and Australia. Europe, in particular, remained a strong contender across all regions. This trend highlights a rise in students exploring options closer to home to benefit from lower study costs and cultural proximity, reflecting the increasing competitiveness of global education markets.

Beyond Europe, student preferences also followed similar regional patterns identified in INTO’s 2024 Global Agent Survey. Students from East Asia were most likely to consider Singapore and Malaysia, while students from the Middle East and North Africa mainly looked to the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, and students from the China, Hong Kong, and Macau region gravitated towards Hong Kong.”

Financial concerns loom large for students

The survey revealed the high degree of stress many international students feel because they don’t have a good sense of how much it will cost to study abroad. Close to half (44%) of surveyed students said that trying to understand tuition fees and cost of living is a “moderately” or “extremely” stressful aspect of their path towards enrolment.

INTO researchers advise:

“Universities can seek to address this challenge by reviewing the clarity in which total cost of studies (including all aspects of cost of living) are communicated, particularly when this might be complicated by how individuals can interpret course structure (e.g., credits) and time it’s likely to take to complete a degree.”

Uncertainty about work rights is another stress

Unpredictable and shifting immigration policies affect not only prospective international students, but also current students. In Canada, for example, many current international students have experienced significant stress in the past year due to not knowing if they were still eligible for work rights and permanent residency. In the US, the situation was stable in 2024, but it is unclear how President Trump may approach international students and legal migration in 2025. Any changes to work rights – e.g., Optional Practical Training (OPT) – would have a significant impact. The INTO survey found that:

• “Two-thirds of graduate students surveyed (66%) intend to secure employment opportunities afforded by OPT”
• One-third of undergraduate students (33%) also indicated a desire to use OPT after graduation.”

Reassurance and advice are crucial

In today’s unsettled global environment, immigration is a hot-button and polarising issue that profoundly affects international students hoping to study in one of the Big Four destinations. This is a year in which to prioritise communications with students and agents, check the institutional website to ensure it offers current and helpful information, and provide prospective students with useful information on visa processes, work rights, and costs of studying and living.

For additional information, please see:

• “Survey shows new visa rules are encouraging international students to apply to more destinations”
• “How to improve your communications with international students”
• “US: International education sector braces as a second Trump presidency takes shape”

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