As expected by US international education experts, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has made only minor revisions to its August 2025 proposal to end Duration of Status (D/S) for F and J students and their dependants despite vigorous lobbying across scientific, business, and higher education sectors. The government published , and it will go into effect on 15 September 2026.

Duration of Status will be replaced with fixed periods of stay for F and J students – four years – unless students are in language programmes, the admission duration for which will be maxed at 24 months. (For detailed background on the policy, please refer to our earlier reporting.)

To stay in the US for longer than the end date marked on their I-94 form, international students need to apply and be approved for an extension by US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS). If they do not receive that extension, they will have to leave the US or be identified as unlawful and subject to a three-to-ten-year ban on re-entering the US.

There is no grace period for four-year F and J students after an extension of status denial at the end of the initial admission period: students and any dependents who may have come to the US with them are required to depart immediately. If not, the next day marks the official beginning of their unlawful presence in the US.

Commenting on the new rule, NAFSA Executive Director and CEO Dr Fanta Aw said:

“DHS’s decision to end Duration of Status is a misguided and unnecessary policy shift that injects uncertainty, bureaucracy, and fear into a system that has long worked effectively. It is a solution in search of a problem. International students and exchange visitors are already the most monitored nonimmigrant populations in the United States. SEVIS and the partnership between institutions and the federal government already provide a rigorous and highly effective system of oversight, compliance, and accountability.

“This rule introduces unnecessary government intrusion into academic decision-making. Requiring students and scholars to seek approval to extend their academic program, change majors, or pursue the next level of study places life-changing educational decisions in the hands of an already overburdened immigration system rather than educators and institutions.

“At a time when global competition for talent is intensifying, this policy sends exactly the wrong message. It tells the world’s brightest students and scholars that the United States is becoming less welcoming, less predictable, and less committed. This is not just bad for higher education, it is bad for American innovation, economic growth, workforce development, and global leadership.”

What will the new rule mean for universities, agents, and students?

Universities and agents: The incoming rule will raise many questions for educators and agents who will be pressed to advise students properly. NAFSA explains:

“There areÌętransition provisionsÌęfor F and J nonimmigrants who were admitted for D/S on their Form I-94 and are inside the United States on September 15, 2026, the final rule effective date. These individuals will not have to immediately apply for a date-certain I-94, but they must still apply for an extension of stay in order to remain in status beyond the program end date on their current Form I-20 or DS-2019, or four years from the final rule effective date, whichever is shorter, and will also be subject to the new academic restrictions in varied ways. If someone in this transition group exits the United States and reenters on or after September 15, 2026, CBP will readmit them with a Form I-94 with a date-specific AUD.”

New international students who had planned to begin programmes this fall may now decide not to. Two segments are at particular risk of reconsidering their decision to study in the US:

• Those for whom the opportunity to pursue Optional Practical training (OPT) after their studies was central to their decision to choose the US as a destination. They now know that the maximum period of admission on an F or J visa is about to be four years, which means they would need to apply for an extension to go on to OPT – an extension that might be rejected.
• Graduate-level students, who will realise that four years may not even cover the length of their programme, let alone OPT.

The OPT and STEM OPT post-study work streams are vital to US institutions’ ability to compete for international students (especially those in STEM and at the graduate level). A 2025 survey conducted by NAFSA and the Institute for Progress found that 54% of current international students would not have chosen the US if there was no OPT option.

Current international students: Current F and J students will live in a climate of uncertainty: many will be required to apply for a visa extension before graduation, knowing that they could be denied that extension. This would mean that their studies in the US would be over the day after they were refused an extension. They would not be able to finish their degree in the US.

Additional components of the new rule bar F and J students from changing academic programmes, and graduates who complete one academic programme will only be able to enrol in a new one if it is at a higher educational level.

What is the context for the introduction of fixed admission periods?

At present, USCIS’s processing of immigration requests has never been more backlogged. Adding international students’ requests for extensions to the backlog will only worsen the situation. Many students will face a long wait to see if their extension is approved. ‹‹
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The granting of extensions will be in the hands of immigration officials at a time when the US government is eager to reduce the flow of foreigners into the country.

How best to advise students and brief student advisors?

The immediate priorities for many US institutions and stakeholders leading up to the September effective date will include:

• Retraining staff on the rule’s key concepts and new terminology (e.g., “admit until date” [AUD])
• Reviewing all programme types for better understand how the new rule will impact each (e.g., pathway programmes, dual degrees, certificates, two-plus-two arrangements, intensive English programmes, undeclared majors)
• Communicating with current students and scholars, especially those approaching their program end dates

Stakeholder groups have already produced a number of explainers and background docs on the new rule, and this process of analysing the details of the rule and developing clear and effective guidance for students and advisors will no doubt continue for some time.

NAFSA, for example, has prepared a detailed set of on its duration of status page (login required). And a number of detailed background docs are already available, including the following:

• 
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  For additional background, please see:

• “US to end ‘Duration of Status’ for F, J, and I visas and limit the time international students can study in the US”

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The end of duration of status?

DHS, which includes United States Citizenship and Immigration Services and United States Immigration and Customs Enforcement, says it will publish an updated rule establishing a fixed time period for international student visas in July 2026.

from immigration law specialists Fragomen explains: “This month, DHS plans to issue final regulation that will end the longstanding practice of admitting foreign students (F nonimmigrants), exchange visitors (J nonimmigrants) and media representatives (I nonimmigrants) to the United States for the duration of their program – known as ‘duration of status’ – and switch to admitting individuals in these categories with a fixed expiration date, after which they will be required to file an extension with the immigration authorities in order to remain in the United States.”

For those who would like additional background on the forthcoming rule, we have written extensively about the pending changes to duration of status. Details of DHS’ proposed rule from August 2025 are .

This rule change has been anticipated all year and has the potential to introduce significant aspects of uncertainty and disruption for foreign students in the US. As such, we might expect that it will also be subject to legal challenge on publication.

Proposals pending for practical training

The newly published agenda for 2026 carries over an item from the prior agenda pertaining to .

Details of the planned reforms are now anticipated in February 2027. For the moment, DHS says only that, “The proposed rule will better align practical training to the goals and objectives of the program while providing more clarity to the public. The proposed rule will amend existing regulations to address fraud and national security concerns, protect US workers from being displaced by foreign nationals, and enhance the Student and Exchange Visitor Program’s capacity to oversee the program.”

To the extent that those reforms affect the Optional Practical Training (OPT) programme, this could be another very consequential change in policy settings.

Of the 1,177,766 foreign students in the US in 2025, just over 294,000 (or about one in four) were in OPT. Participation in the programme was up 21% year-over-year from 2024 to 2025, continuing a multi-year programme of significant growth in programme participation.

Beyond its sheer scale, OPT is a critical aspect of the US offer to international students as it is the most widely used pathway to post-study work for foreign graduates. In a 2025 survey of current international students conducted by NAFSA and the Institute for Progress, 54% of respondents said they would not have enrolled at a US university had OPT not been available to them.

H-1B reforms

In another continuation of an item from the previous regulatory agenda, DHS say it intends to proceed with reforms to the H-1B work visa programme.

First published in , this amounts to a statement of intent to reform the programme “by revising eligibility for cap exemptions, providing greater scrutiny for employers that have violated program requirements, and increasing oversight over third party placements, among other provisions. These changes are intended to improve the integrity of the H-1B nonimmigrant program and better protect US workers’ wages and working conditions.”

There is no other detail in the agenda docs, except that the Department expects to publish its proposals for H-1B in August 2026.

For additional background, please see:

• “There are more international students in the US than ever in 2025, but commencements are declining“
• “US to end ‘Duration of Status’ for F, J, and I visas and limit the time international students can study in the US“
• “What international students need to know about study and work visas in the United States“

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It is no coincidence that the Key Five are all emerging countries in the Global South, where large proportions of students are open to emigrating, temporarily or permanently, because of limited local opportunities. This makes immigration officials tend to question whether study visa applicants are genuine students – i.e., interested in quality education, a high-skilled job, and remaining compliant with visa conditions – or individuals with little intent to study and great intent to migrate in any way they can. Unfortunately, many genuine students from the Global South are disadvantaged in their applications because of where they are from.

The impact of the visa rejection trend for students from emerging economies in Asia and Africa could be enormous across the global international education landscape – and beyond. Already, it is spurring fewer visa grants, reduced recruiting in high-risk markets, and more withdrawals from students eager to avoid a rejection on their student profile. Not surprisingly, commencements are trending down in leading study destinations, and this will pressure overall enrolments in the years ahead.

In this article, we will look at Key Five origin countries with regards to:

• Their importance to overall enrolments across the Big Four;
• Recent study visa rejection rates;
• Commencement trends (i.e., the volume of new students provided a study visa allowing them to enrol in a Big Four education institution).

Contribution to overall international student numbers

According to the most recent available enrolment data, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Nigeria, and Pakistan compose anywhere from 30% to 40%+ of the entire international student body in Big Four destinations.

Visa rejection rates for the Key Five

Having looked at the huge presence of Key Five students in the total international student populations of the Big Four, we’ll turn to recent visa refusal trends (where official data are available).

Bangladesh: Nearly three-quarters (73%) of Bangladeshi applicants for US F-1 visas were turned away in 2025. Bangladeshi students have in recent years been very likely to receive a visa for Australia (about a 5% rejection rate in 2024/25), but in February 2026, more than half (51%) of offshore applicants from Bangladesh were refused.

India: Indian students, who represent either the #1 or #2 source market across the Big Four, are now quite likely to be refused a study visa in those destinations. Rejection rates were 61% in the US (2025), 80% in Canada (Q2 2025), and 60% in Australia (February 2026). While only 7.5% were denied a sponsored study visa in the UK in Q4 2025–Q1 2026, this this was up from less than 4% in winter 2024/25.

Nepal: More than 8 in 10 (81%) Nepali applicants were rejected for a US F-1 visa in 2025, and in February 2026, the Australian study visa rejection rate for Nepal soared to 65%. Interestingly, Nepali students were more likely to be approved for a UK sponsored study visa in winter 2025/26 than in winter 2024/25, bucking the general trend for emerging markets (see chart below).

Nigeria: Since December 2025, Nigerians have been included in an expanded travel ban announced by the US administration, along with dozens of other countries (mostly in Africa and Asia). In the UK, sponsored study rejections for Nigerian students used to be rare (less than 5%), but in winter 2025/26, 20% of Nigerian applicants were turned away. In Canada, between 70–80% were refused a study permit in in 2025.

Pakistan: More than 70% of Pakistanis were refused an F-1 visa in the US in 2026, and more than 6 in 10 offshore applicants from Pakistan were denied an Australian study visa in February 2026. Like Nigerians, Pakistani students applying for a sponsored study visa in the UK saw their rejection rate spike massively in winter 2025/26: increasing from 5.6% to 41% year-over-year.

These rejection rates for Key Five countries represent an absolutely huge number of potential students turned away.

What is happening to commencements?

Key Five commencements (new student entrants) are falling across the Big Four, with less than a handful of exceptions.
 
A striking example is F-1 visa issuances in the US in July/August of 2024 compared with July/August 2025. The percentages in the table below are based on our analysis of data from the US Department of State. It bears mentioning that in September of 2025 (not shown in the table), F-1 commencements fell further for Bangladesh (-69%), Nepal (-96%), Nigeria (-33%), and Pakistan (-9%) compared with September 2024.

In the UK, the following chart from HESA shows the dramatic drop-off in Indian (turquoise) and Nigerian (navy blue) commencements between 2023/24 and 2024/25: -13% and -33%, respectively. Over the span of two years (2022/23 to 2024/25), the declines were even more serious: -33% for India (126,580 to 94,955) and -132% for Nigeria (53,790 to 23,160).

In Canada, new student arrivals (from all nationalities) fell from 208,750 in 2024 to 115,120 in 2025. In January to April 2026 compared with the same period in 2025, arrivals were down -73% to about 200,000. There is no publicly available government information for specific markets, but the Times of India reports that between January and August 2025, Canada issued just 9,955 new study permits to Indian students.

In Australia, overall commencements fell by about -15% between 2024 and 2025, but this decline was concentrated in sectors other than higher education (the number of new international students in Australian universities edged up slightly in that time period). There was more of a mixed bag of commencement trends for the Key Five than in Canada, the UK, and US. Between 2024 and 2025, Indian and Pakistani commencements fell by -3.5% and -33%, respectively, while Nepal was up +33.5% and Bangladesh +33%.

The implications will stretch beyond international education

Our Key Five markets – Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Nigeria, and Pakistan – can be viewed as roughly representative of what is happening to mobility influences and flows between the Global South and Big Four destinations. They serve to show how immigration policies (and/or policy effects) in the Big Four are affecting demand from top non-EU markets. These policies, especially if they stretch on in time, could lead to:

• An intensification of existing challenges for the operations of hundreds of universities, colleges, and schools across the Big Four. Those institutions are often highly reliant on international student tuition amid declining domestic enrolments and/or public funding. Chinese commencements (which, for decades, were an important source of overall growth) are falling, and emerging markets in Asia and Africa have helped to mitigate the impact.

• Alternative destinations gaining a greater share of the world’s internationally mobile students (this is already happening – see From the Big Four to the Big Fourteen for background).‹‹

• A decline in the economic contribution of international education in the Big Four.‹‹

• A weakening of innovation and productivity in Big Four economies. India, in particular, contributes a large volume of STEM students and workers to Western nations.‹‹

• An erosion of the soft power of the Big Four in the Global South.

Methodological note

Data analyses are based on statistics from:

• The Australian
• (IRCC)
• The UK’s (HESA)
• The in the US

For additional information, please see:

• “UK: International student numbers fall for second year, especially in postgraduate programmes“
• “UK: Sponsored study visa issuances down, rejection rates up, and more“
• “There are more international students in the US than ever in 2025, but commencements are declining“
• “Visa rejections climb in the US for international students from key markets including India“
• “New international student permit approvals for Canada fell below COVID levels in 2025“
• “Australia: Multiple data indicators signal further declines ahead for international student numbers“
• “Australia: Latest enrolment data challenges the government’s assertion of stability for international education this year“

The post What is happening to student mobility flows between the Global South and Global North?Ìę appeared first on șÚÁÏčÙÍű Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

Little by little, the wall gets higher

The movement to restrict African nationals from coming to the US began in the summer of 2025, when the administration stopped processing the visas of students (and other nationals) from several countries including Chad, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Libya, Somalia, and Sudan. This list was quickly expanded to include Angola, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Cîte d’Ivoire, Djibouti, Egypt, Ethiopia, Gabon, the Gambia, Liberia, Malawi, Nigeria, Niger, Senegal, South Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zimbabwe.

In bluntest terms: Of the 54 countries in Africa, almost half made the travel ban list in the summer of 2025. Currently, African countries account for the lion’s share of all 39 countries on that list.

In January 2026, the government began targeting African students already in the US. Immigration officers were directed to pause visa processing for students from travel-ban countries applying for Optional Practical Training (OPT) and extensions, the H-1B programme, or the work component attached to J-1 visas. That same month, the pause applied to Green Card applicants from 23 African countries, many of which were on the travel ban list.

Now, in June 2026, the US State Department is from 50 consular posts to 20 designated regional hubs. This means all African students will have to travel to one of those 20 hubs to apply for a US study visa and sit for an interview. Some prospective applicants live hundreds of kilometres away from a hub. Reaching a hub may now necessitate flights and staying over in more than one city.

The impact

Policy after policy is now making it nearly impossible for many African students to study in the US. Through visa bans and high rejection rates; immigration restrictions; and now the reduction of visa processing offices, the barriers are mounting for African students hoping to study in the United States.

African markets have been the fastest growing sources of students for US universities in recent years. For example, between 2023/24 and 2024/25, according to , these were the biggest growth stories, including top 20 markets of Nigeria (#8) and Ghana (#14):

• Cameroon: +20.5% to 1,180
• Ethiopia: +10.5 to 3,400
• Tanzania: +11% to 1,140
• Uganda: +15% to 1,500
• Zimbabwe: +42% to 2,700
• Ghana: +36.5% to 12,830
• Nigeria: +9% to 21,850

Overall, African enrolments in US higher education institutions grew by +15% in 2024/25 compared with +5% for Asia, +3% for Europe, and +2.5% for Latin America and the Caribbean.

For additional background, please see:

• “US extends travel ban, Nigeria now included on restricted list“
• “US: Student visa issuances fell by -36% in summer 2025; OPT uncertainty among factors affecting international student demand”

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The new rule will replace the current “Duration of Status” (D/S) admissions mechanism with fixed end dates, require students and exchange visitors to file formal extension applications with US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), shorten grace periods, and prevent programme changes.

We have written extensively on the rule change and so won’t unpack it in great detail again here. Suffice to say it has the potential to be extremely disruptive for current and prospective international students in the US, and is therefore of great concern to international educators and stakeholders.

The main issues are:

• The time limits imposed by the new rule are impractical for many students. Because most students will need to extend their stay beyond the four-year limit imposed by the rule, this opens the door to processing delays and, most significantly, uncertainty in the student’s academic pathway.

• The extension decision will rest with USCIS as opposed to the student’s institution as it does under the D/S system. This exposes the student, as one conference presenter put it, to “hard vetting opportunities” that could disrupt the student’s programme or prevent them from progressing to further study or to Optional Practical Training (OPT).

Because of the rule’s significance, the response from US educators and stakeholders has been considerable. The proposed rule was published in the Federal Register on 28 August 2025 with a tight 30-day public comment period that closed on 29 September 2025. Even within that short window, the filing attracted more than 15,700 comments, the overwhelming majority of which were in opposition.

In its comment, for example, NAFSA said the proposed rule “would replace a proven, flexible policy that has served the nation, international students, and exchange visitors for decades with a policy that is duplicative, burdensome and creates uncertainty.”

The Presidents’ Alliance on Higher Education and Immigration said that it “objects to this rule in full,” asserting that, “Implementing the rule would have significantly greater economic effects than estimated by [Department of Homeland Security] on US higher education institutions, including from the loss of the international student population and economic costs to local communities.”

Even so, on 5 May 2026, the Department of Homeland Security submitted the final rule to the Office of Management and Budget for review, which is the last procedural step before the final rule will be published in the Federal Register.

The general expectation within the sector is the rule will proceed. As NAFSA explains: “We expect OMB’s review to be expeditious and for the rule to be published in the Federal Register in the not too distant future. The final rule will go into effect 60 days after publication.”

A bipartisan appeal

Against all of that administrative process and critique, a notable, late-breaking development comes in the form of , with two Republican signatories and two Democrats.

The rare bipartisan appeal expresses the group’s concern about the proposed rule, and asks the Department of Homeland Security and the Office of Management and Budget “to preserve Duration of Status and ensure efficient visa processing policies that support a stable environment for international students and scholars.”

Reflecting some of the key points from the critical commentary filed during the 30-day period in September 2025, the letter sets out that, “Replacing D/S with a capped admission period of four years would require many students to seek repeated extensions, creating unnecessary administrative burdens, processing delays, and disruptions to academic continuity. These changes would undermine America’s ability to attract and retain top global talent at a time when competitor nations continue expanding efforts to recruit international students, researchers, and high-skilled STEM workers. Recent surveys found that nearly half of international graduate students and postdoctoral researchers would not have chosen to study in the United States if it had a fixed admission period.”

The congressional representatives also describe some of the local and national impacts of falling international enrolments: “Maintaining D/S is also vital in our efforts to strengthen domestic talent pipelines and local economies. Because international students are generally ineligible for federal financial aid and often pay full tuition, they help sustain academic programs, expand institutional capacity, and support educational opportunities for American students. In fact, for every international student enrolled at a US public university, two additional American students are able to attend
If the United States experiences even a one-third decline in foreign STEM graduates, the country could lose 6 to 11 percent of its high-skilled STEM workforce. Economic research estimates that such a decline could reduce the U.S. GDP by $240 to $481 billion annually within a decade – creating fewer new businesses and jobs, reducing global competitiveness, and shrinking tax revenues that support public services and infrastructure.”

For additional background, please see:

• “US to end ‘Duration of Status’ for F, J, and I visas and limit the time international students can study in the US“
• “US immigration officials allege OPT is being widely abused and say ‘more actions are forthcoming’“

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On 12 May, Todd M. Lyons, ICE’s acting director, called to announce that ICE has found more than 10,000 cases of fraud in the system on the part of dodgy employers and students.

Mr Lyons said that OPT has “become a magnet for fraud.”

He continued:

“When OPT was created under the Bush administration and expanded under the Obama administration, DHS had anticipated only a few thousand foreign students would receive training approval before returning home. Instead, OPT ballooned into an uncontrolled guest worker pipeline with hundreds of thousands of foreign students working in the United States. As the programme size has exploded, so has the fraud.”

Mr Lyons, and acting executive associate director for Homeland Security Operations (HSI) John Con, detailed the results of multiple investigations across the country, which include cases of “empty buildings with locked doors at addresses where hundreds of foreign students are allegedly employed 
 residential addresses listed as work sites for hundreds of foreign students – yet no employees were present.” Mr Lyons said:

“We are discovering evidence of organised fraud that spans national and international borders. This is not accidental. It is deliberate, coordinated, and criminal.”

Closing out the press conference, Mr Lyons concluded: “We will not tolerate abuse of our programmes, and more actions are forthcoming.”

In 2024/25, close to 300,000 international graduates participated in either OPT (one year) or STEM OPT (one year plus a two-year extension for STEM programme graduates).

A step toward restricting the OPT programme?

Many international education analysts believe the press conference is laying the groundwork for much stricter government oversight – or even the elimination – of the OPT programme.

There is strong political support for this direction within the governing Republican party, and as we reported last week, the director of US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), Joseph Edlow, has indicated that he wants a regulatory system that can “remove the ability for employment authorisations for F-1 students beyond the time that they are in school.”

It’s possible that a cumulative and coordinated administration strategy that gradually reduces the attractiveness of OPT – and more broadly, the opportunities for international students to work in the US after graduating – could be in play. Following are four measures whose inter-dynamics suggest this may already be the case.

1: Pause in visa processing. In January 2026, the government expanded its 39-country travel ban so it could impact not just students coming into the US, but also those already studying there. It announced that while current students from those countries could still apply for OPT, the processing of their applications would be paused. This “pause” remains active. OPT applicants cannot work in the US until their application is approved, leaving them in limbo and without any sense of when processing will resume.
Strategic negative impact on OPT? Yes. It becomes harder and less attractive for international students from travel ban countries to participate in OPT.

2: USCIS to decide how long international students can stay in the US. The Duration of Status (D/S) system, which allows many students to stay in the US past their programme end date if their Designated School Official decides they have a valid reason for needing more time, is expected to be terminated in September 2026. It will be replaced by a fixed-admission structure under which students will be allowed no more than four years of admission unless they get an extension. US Citizenship and Immigration Services officials will decide whether to approve the extension. Officials will be permitted to “use discretion,” which means they can make independent judgments and choices when reviewing requests from students. They will never have met those students, relying rather on a paper or electronic submission for their decision. Most F-1 students will need the extension to be eligible for OPT given that they would exhaust the four-year admission period just by completing their degree.
Strategic negative impact on OPT? Yes. To enter OPT, students will need permission from immigration officials to stay in the US for longer than four years.

3: The framing of the OPT system as a “magnet for fraud” this week. In this week’s press conference, ICE may have been creating a context in which limiting OPT access would be justified. Mr Lyons characterised the incidences of fraud as “not victimless 
 [but] a blatant attack on the goodwill of the American people who generously allow foreign national access to our education system.”
Strategic negative impact on OPT? Yes. OPT is being positioned as a backdoor immigration pathway.

4: New rules for US employers hiring H-1B workers. In the March 2026 registration cycle for the H-1B lottery, a December 2025 “” was applied for the first time. This rule makes it more difficult for US employers to hire entry-level, highly skilled foreign workers and students.

It does so because petitions to sponsor entry-level or lower-salaried foreign workers and students receive fewer chances to “win” the lottery. There are now four salary levels in the selection process for H-1B recipients: #4 (the highest salary) gives four chances; #3 gives three chances; #2 gives two; and #1, the lowest, provides just one chance. Young international students in OPT, who represent a popular pool of H-1B prospects for employers, will be disadvantaged given their lower likelihood of being offered senior-level positions.
Strategic negative impact on OPT? Yes, indirectly. Receiving an H-1B is the primary route for highly skilled foreigners to work in the US for a considerable amount of time (three years with extensions possible to six years or even longer). It is also a dual-intent visa that allows employers to sponsor permanent residency for their H-1B workers.

By limiting the chances of international students to get an H-1B, the government also makes it less likely for them to eventually get a Green Card. The degree > OPT > H-1B > permanent residency pathway – while certainly not guaranteed – is the dream of many international students who choose the US for study abroad. Disrupting the OPT > H-1B pathway will jeopardise American universities and employers’ chances to attract some of the world’s top students.

Is OPT really so nefarious?

Many prominent companies, universities, and firms figure among the top employers of OPT participants. The table below is based on from 2024.

Apple CEO Tim Cook held a staff meeting in February in which he voiced his strong opposition to the Trump administration’s immigration approach. Mr Cook told employees: “For as long as I can remember, we have been a smarter, wiser, more innovative company because we’ve attracted the best and brightest from all corners of the world. I am going to continue to lobby lawmakers on this issue.”

Speaking of innovation

In 2022, a report from the found that one quarter of US billion-dollar companies were founded by international graduates of US universities.

More broadly, the latest instalment of the ’s long-running “New American Fortune 500” research programme found that in 2025, nearly half (46%) of Fortune 500 companies were founded by immigrants or the children of immigrants. Further, the American Immigration Council found that “of the 14 companies that made the Fortune 500 list in 2025 for the first time, 10 were founded by immigrants or their children.”

A 2022 of American Community data found that “every additional 100 foreign-born workers with an advanced degree working in a STEM occupation creates roughly 86 jobs for U.S. workers.”

Nothing final yet

With the press conference this week, the Trump administration continues to signal that OPT is in its sights. Miriam Feldblum, president and CEO of the Presidents’ Alliance on Higher Education and Immigration, told in April:

“This current administration has been signaling very clearly that they’re seeking to end postgraduate Optional Practical Training. The former secretary of homeland security, the current secretary of homeland security, Republican senators have all been kind of waving the specter that there will be a proposed rule to end OPT.”

For additional background, please see:

• “US to end ‘Duration of Status’ for F, J, and I visas and limit the time international students can study in the US”
• “What international students need to know about study and work visas in the United States”
• “US: Student visa issuances fell by -36% in summer 2025; OPT uncertainty among factors affecting international student demand”

The post US immigration officials allege OPT is being widely abused and say “more actions are forthcoming” appeared first on șÚÁÏčÙÍű Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

The proposal also suggests that students in shorter programmes (e.g., two-year master’s) will need to leave at the end of their study programme unless they receive an extension, with language students allowed a 24-month maximum term of admission, including breaks and vacation time.

The government intends to abolish the “Duration of Status” (D/S) system, which allows students to stay beyond the end-date on their I-20 form if they can prove they have legitimate reasons for an extension. The D/S system has been in effect for decades.

As for when the D/S system will be formally replaced, Jill Allen Murray, Deputy Executive Director of Public Policy at NAFSA: Association of International Educators, told :

“We do anticipate that it will happen soon. We know that the administration’s desire is certainly to have [the fixed time limit rule] in place so that it would be effective for students arriving in the United States in the fall. They do have a proposed a 60-day implementation period that has to happen, so working back from that, the very latest we should see the final rule is between the end of May and end of June.”

The webinar was presented by NAFSA, the International Student Resource Center, and the Presidents’ Alliance on Higher Education and Immigration, and it was devoted to preparing institutions for the impact of the rule change.

What is being replaced?

The D/S system, which allows F and J students an extension on the admission end-date on their I-20 form if their school, college, or university determines they are progressing in their studies. The D/S system recognises that international students need flexibility when it comes to accomplishing their study goals. For example:

• A student begins their journey in an English-intensive programme (IEP) and then progresses to higher education once they have become more proficient in the language;
• A PhD student needs more than four years to finish their programme (which is very common – the average is five to eight years);
• A student completes their degree programme and then progresses to Optional Practical Training (one year) or STEM OPT (three years) to gain work experience.

These are only some of the common and legitimate study pathways offered to international students under D/S.

If a student needs to stay in the US for longer to complete their programme, they apply for an extension to the Designated School Official (DSO) at their institution, who is familiar with the student’s academic progression and performance. The DSO is authorised to make extension decisions by the Department of Homeland Security.

How will the extension process change?

According to the proposal, the DSO will no longer have power to approve the extension request. That will transfer to US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) officials, and those officials will be permitted to “use discretion” in their decisions. The date students are required to leave the US (with a 30-day grace period) will be entered on their I-94 form, linked to their passport. Students will need to make their case for an extension directly to USCIS.

Other limitations

The proposal also seeks to prohibit international undergraduate students from changing programmes or schools in the first year of their studies and graduate students from doing so at any point. Extensions will not be granted to students wanting to pursue a second degree or qualification if immigration authorities deem that programme to be at the same or lower level than the initial one.

The threat to OPT

When the government takes over the role of education institutions in deciding if a student should have more time to complete their studies, the implications will be massive, especially for students aiming to participate in Optional Practical Training (OPT). The director of USCIS, Joseph Edlow, has indicated he is prepared to restrict access to OPT. In May of 2025 at his , he said:

“What I want to see would be essentially a regulatory and sub-regulatory program that would allow us to remove the ability for employment authorizations for F-1 students beyond the time that they are in school.”

The OPT and STEM OPT post-study work streams are vital to US institutions’ ability to compete for international students (especially those in STEM and at the graduate level). A 2025 survey conducted by NAFSA and  found that 54% of current international students would not have chosen the US if there was no OPT option.

If it becomes too cumbersome, expensive, and uncertain to request an extension for OPT, demand will be extremely affected in the US’s top source of students, India. This is because Indians represent about half of all participants in OPT and STEM OPT.

The implications for graduate programmes

Nearly half of all international students in the US are studying at the master’s or doctoral level. The proposal includes a four-year limit for graduate programmes. Doctoral-level programmes very frequently require more time than this to complete. International student demand for graduate programmes is already down, and it will almost certainly fall further due to the proposal.

Some graduate programmes in STEM could be devastated. According to IIE data, international students account for almost 70% of enrolments in math and computer science programmes and more than half in engineering programmes. In AI-related programmes, 7 in 10 enrolments are international.

Such statistics also illustrate the huge potential of international STEM graduates to contribute to research and innovation in the US economy.

Will current students be affected?

The finalised rule is expected to apply to new students coming into the US in September 2026. Current students wanting to extend their stay beyond their programme end-date will likely need to submit a request to immigration authorities. It is possible there will be a six-month grace period for OPT students after the ruling goes into effect, as long as they do not leave the country.

Why is D/S being replaced?

The government says that the D/S setup cannot adequately address cases of fraud and visa non-compliance by international students and exchange visitors. More broadly, the change is being framed as a way to better protect national security because it will provide more opportunities for DHS to monitor the activities of international students. Students’ end-dates and activities will be more closely integrated into the US visa infrastructure.

In its response to the proposal, NAFSA exposed many holes in the government’s argument – including the lack of data compromising many of its points – and explained how much of the monitoring the DHS wants to do could be accomplished by making tweaks to the SEVIS system upon which D/S relies.

NAFSA has mounted a comprehensive and sector-wide effort to have the government reconsider the end of D/S or at least to significantly reconsider the proposed changes. The association has stated:

“If [the proposal] becomes final, the damage done by this rule will be felt on our campuses and in our communities and will harm our country’s standing in the world.”

The “sea change” ahead

The need for students to file a request for an extension to USCIS will be anything but a procedural switch. As Joann Ng Hartmann, Strategic Initiatives Leader at NAFSA says, it will be a “sea change.”
It will introduce considerable uncertainty for students, for two main reasons:

• At present, USCIS’s processing of immigration requests has never been more backlogged. Adding international students’ requests for extensions to the backlog will only worsen the situation. Many students will face a long wait to see if their extension is approved. ‹‹
  
• The granting of extensions will be in the hands of immigration officials at a time when the US government is eager to reduce the flow of foreigners into the country.

In addition, it will cause chaos for schools and colleges, according to Robin Catmur-Smith, Director of Immigration Services in the Office of Global Engagement at the University of Georgia, who was a NAFSA webinar panelist. Institutions will need to change their recruitment messaging, websites, communications, and supports for incoming and current students.

The administration burden – and needed budget – will be extremely high as well for the new compliance and procedural changes ahead. International student departments will in many cases have to be reorganised to advise and track different student profiles (e.g., J students, graduate students, incoming students, OPT students). What’s more, because the final proposal has not yet been published, institutions are in some ways flying blind as they attempt to prepare themselves, recruitment agents, current students, and incoming students for the September 2026 intake.

Where does the government proposal stand now?

The DHS review of comments and objections submitted by tens of thousands of respondents – including universities and peak bodies – is complete and the document is now final. NAFSA announced today that:

“On May 5, 2026, that will eliminate F and J “Duration of Status” to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for review. We expect OMB’s review to be expeditious and for the rule to be published in the Federal Register in the not-too-distant future. The final rule will go into effect 60 days after publication in the Federal Register. Although the text of the final rule will not be available to the public until at least 24 hours before the Federal Register publication date, we surmise that it will retain most if not all of the changes included in the proposed rule.”

Can the rule be challenged?

During the 28 April NAFSA webinar, Andrew Lyonsberg, a partner at McDermott Will & Schulte’s Supreme Court & Appellate Litigation and Government & Regulatory Litigation practice, presented as a panelist. He spoke to the question of whether the fixed time limit rule can be legally challenged.

Mr Lyonsberg, whose practice has successfully appealed past Trump administration immigration rules, says that when the final rule is published, DHS will need to present strong rationale that the need for the change outweighs the “harms” of it to students, institutions, and stakeholders. If not, this will likely clear a path to litigation.

If there is a challenge, it would likely be that the rule should be struck down because it is “arbitrary and capricious.” That legal terminology without a reasonable basis, ignoring relevant facts or logic and often appearing random, unfair, or unsupported by the evidence.

Mr Lyonsberg said that the international education community could prepare to support potential litigation by beginning to document concrete examples of harms the proposal would inflict on students, institutions, staff, and more.

The larger implications

NAFSA states:

“We are in a global competition for talent, as other countries around the world recognize the outsized economic and social benefits of international students and exchange visitors and have implemented policies to create a welcoming environment for these students to thrive.”

“If finalized, the rule will foster tremendous uncertainty for many international students and exchange visitors about whether they will be able to maintain their legal status in the United States through the completion of their studies or program, discouraging students and exchange visitors from coming here, and pushing them to look for opportunities in other countries instead.”

NAFSA also has related to the proposal and its implications, including:

• “Preparing for the final D/S rule. How has your office started to prepare?”
• “Spreadsheet for advising and staffing planning”
• “Presidents’ Alliance Survey: Share how international talent strengthens our communities”

For additional background, please see:

• “What international students need to know about study and work visas in the US”
• “US: Student visa issuances fell by -36% in summer 2025; OPT uncertainty among factors affecting international student demand”

The post US to end “Duration of Status” for F, J, and I visas and limit the time international students can study in the US appeared first on șÚÁÏčÙÍű Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

The report continues Shorelight’s commitment, which began in 2023 in partnership with the Presidents’ Alliance on Higher Education and Immigration, to acquiring and analysing F-1 visa denial data. It is based on annual data obtained via a public information request to the US Department of State.

Refusals higher than in the pandemic

More than a third of all F-1 visas (35%) were refused in 2025, up from 31% in 2024 and 23% in 2015

The extremes on either point of this average are sharp. For Europe, the refusal rate is 9%. For Africa and Asia, it is 64% and 41%, respectively. The chart below shows the persistently low rate of rejection over 10 years for European students compared with students from elsewhere in the world.

Surging rejection rates for African students

In 2015, more than half of African applicants had their F-1 visa application approved. In 2025, nearly two-thirds were rejected. Over 10 years, refusals for African applicants have risen by 33%.

Students from some African countries are especially likely to be denied, with at least 80% of applicants from Sierra Leone, Somalia, Benin, and Burkina Faso turned away last year.

A record-high refusal rate also applied to applications from Ghana: 81% in 2025 versus 72% in 2024. Ghana – one of the safest and most stable countries in West Africa – has been a very important emerging market for US institutions in recent years. In 2024/25, according to the IIE’s Open Doors data, there were 12,825 Ghanaian students in the US, a +36.5% rise over the previous year. This was an even higher rate of growth than that from Nigeria (+9.1%), which has been the top African sender of students to the US for several years.

In 2024/25, there were 21,850 Nigerian students in US higher education, but next year will tell a different story: Nigeria is on the Trump administration’s travel ban list. This means that Nigerian students currently cannot even apply to the US, let alone have a shot of being approved for a visa. In addition, Nigerian students in the US hoping to switch to Optional Practical Training (OPT) aren’t currently able to, as the immigration department has placed an indefinite hold on their applications. This means they cannot work after finishing their studies.

Keystone Education Group reports that “Nigerian student search interest in the USA has dropped more than -50% since the visa processing freeze announcement on 17 December 2025.” Keystone found that Nigerian interest is shifting mainly to France (+40%), Italy (+33%), Australia (+21), and China (+17%).

Refusals now common for South Asian students

Like African students, South Asian students are increasingly aware that simply being from their country means they are less likely to receive an F-1 visa than students from other regions. Indian students – who compose the largest segment of the international student body in the US – are no exception. The rejection rate for Indian students rose from 53% in 2024 to 61% in 2025.

As a source market, India has been growing over time – up +10% in 2024/25 after an expansion of +23% in 2023/24, but this trend is now reversing.

Similarly, visa denials for Nepali students rose from 59% in 2024 to 81% in 2025. Last year, Nepal was the sixth largest origin market for US institutions, growing by +48% in 2024/25 over 2023/24 – the most significant jump of any top 20 market for the US.

Students from Bangladesh and Pakistan are also much more likely to be refused than approved for an F-1 visa (73% and 71% rejection rate, respectively), and this trend has intensified over the past year.

European students fare much better

Over 9 in 10 European students were approved for an F-1 visa in 2025.

The problem is that European countries contain a relatively small recruitment pool. For example, though six European countries – the UK, TĂŒrkiye, Spain, Germany, France, and Italy – are top-20 source countries for US colleges, they collectively compose less than 6% of international enrolments. In addition, they are not high-growth markets (see chart below); they will not offset declining enrolments from Africa and Asia.

Lower Indian demand has profound implications for the US economy

Indians represent 30% of all foreign enrolments in the US, and they are mostly in graduate programmes. But last year, Indian graduate enrolments fell by -9.5% – a serious decline made even starker because it followed +18.5% growth the previous year.

If Indian demand declines further because of high visa refusal rates or restrictions on the OPT and H-1B work streams, there will be profound domino effects. Consider:

• Indian students contribute over 70% of enrolments in master’s and PhD-level STEM (science, technology, engineering, and math) programmes.
• Nearly half of STEM-OPT participants are Indian.
• Close to 75% of all H-1B work visas are awarded to Indians, mainly for positions in the tech sector.
• Nearly a quarter (23%) of tech workers in Silicon Valley with a bachelor’s degree or higher are Indian-born (including the current CEOs of Google, Microsoft, and IBM).
• Indian-born doctors are the largest segment of immigrant doctors in the US.

The explains what could happen if Indian students choose to go elsewhere to study and work in STEM fields:

“The broader impact on the US could be severe: hospitals facing doctor shortages, universities struggling to attract STEM students, and start-ups without the lobbying muscle of Google or Amazon are likely to be hit hardest.”

The future impact of structural bias in F-1 visa processing

The Shorelight report concludes:

“With student visa refusals in India climbing up to 60%, we’re not just denying students, we’re cutting off a critical talent pipeline for US universities, employers, and the economy. Without expanding opportunities in other high-growth regions, we’re creating a self-inflicted talent shortage. In a global race for skilled workers, the US cannot afford to turn away the very students who fuel our research, workforce, and competitiveness.”

Asked by Inside Higher Ed to comment on Shorelight’s determination that visa approvals are more determined by applicants’ home countries than by merit, the US State Department said: “All visa applications are reviewed on a case-by-case basis, in accordance with US law, and adjudicated based on the facts and circumstances of the individual case.”

Shorelight’s recommendations

Within the Shorelight report are “evidence-based solutions to address this challenge [of structural bias in F-1 visa processing],” including a call for “greater transparency in denials, standardised financial guidance, specialised training for high-refusal consulates, dual-intent for F-1 visas, and codifying OPT.” The full report .

For additional background, please see:‹

• “US: Student visa issuances fell by -36% in summer 2025; OPT uncertainty among factors affecting international student demand”
• “Australia: Student visa refusal rates reach record high amid weakening demand from China”

The post Visa rejections climb in the US for international students from key markets including India appeared first on șÚÁÏčÙÍű Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.