The report continues Shorelight’s commitment, which began in 2023 in partnership with the Presidents’ Alliance on Higher Education and Immigration, to acquiring and analysing F-1 visa denial data. It is based on annual data obtained via a public information request to the US Department of State.

Refusals higher than in the pandemic

More than a third of all F-1 visas (35%) were refused in 2025, up from 31% in 2024 and 23% in 2015

The extremes on either point of this average are sharp. For Europe, the refusal rate is 9%. For Africa and Asia, it is 64% and 41%, respectively. The chart below shows the persistently low rate of rejection over 10 years for European students compared with students from elsewhere in the world.

Surging rejection rates for African students

In 2015, more than half of African applicants had their F-1 visa application approved. In 2025, nearly two-thirds were rejected. Over 10 years, refusals for African applicants have risen by 33%.

Students from some African countries are especially likely to be denied, with at least 80% of applicants from Sierra Leone, Somalia, Benin, and Burkina Faso turned away last year.

A record-high refusal rate also applied to applications from Ghana: 81% in 2025 versus 72% in 2024. Ghana – one of the safest and most stable countries in West Africa – has been a very important emerging market for US institutions in recent years. In 2024/25, according to the IIE’s Open Doors data, there were 12,825 Ghanaian students in the US, a +36.5% rise over the previous year. This was an even higher rate of growth than that from Nigeria (+9.1%), which has been the top African sender of students to the US for several years.

In 2024/25, there were 21,850 Nigerian students in US higher education, but next year will tell a different story: Nigeria is on the Trump administration’s travel ban list. This means that Nigerian students currently cannot even apply to the US, let alone have a shot of being approved for a visa. In addition, Nigerian students in the US hoping to switch to Optional Practical Training (OPT) aren’t currently able to, as the immigration department has placed an indefinite hold on their applications. This means they cannot work after finishing their studies.

Keystone Education Group reports that “Nigerian student search interest in the USA has dropped more than -50% since the visa processing freeze announcement on 17 December 2025.” Keystone found that Nigerian interest is shifting mainly to France (+40%), Italy (+33%), Australia (+21), and China (+17%).

Refusals now common for South Asian students

Like African students, South Asian students are increasingly aware that simply being from their country means they are less likely to receive an F-1 visa than students from other regions. Indian students – who compose the largest segment of the international student body in the US – are no exception. The rejection rate for Indian students rose from 53% in 2024 to 61% in 2025.

As a source market, India has been growing over time – up +10% in 2024/25 after an expansion of +23% in 2023/24, but this trend is now reversing.

Similarly, visa denials for Nepali students rose from 59% in 2024 to 81% in 2025. Last year, Nepal was the sixth largest origin market for US institutions, growing by +48% in 2024/25 over 2023/24 – the most significant jump of any top 20 market for the US.

Students from Bangladesh and Pakistan are also much more likely to be refused than approved for an F-1 visa (73% and 71% rejection rate, respectively), and this trend has intensified over the past year.

European students fare much better

Over 9 in 10 European students were approved for an F-1 visa in 2025.

The problem is that European countries contain a relatively small recruitment pool. For example, though six European countries – the UK, Türkiye, Spain, Germany, France, and Italy – are top-20 source countries for US colleges, they collectively compose less than 6% of international enrolments. In addition, they are not high-growth markets (see chart below); they will not offset declining enrolments from Africa and Asia.

Lower Indian demand has profound implications for the US economy

Indians represent 30% of all foreign enrolments in the US, and they are mostly in graduate programmes. But last year, Indian graduate enrolments fell by -9.5% – a serious decline made even starker because it followed +18.5% growth the previous year.

If Indian demand declines further because of high visa refusal rates or restrictions on the OPT and H-1B work streams, there will be profound domino effects. Consider:

• Indian students contribute over 70% of enrolments in master’s and PhD-level STEM (science, technology, engineering, and math) programmes.
• Nearly half of STEM-OPT participants are Indian.
• Close to 75% of all H-1B work visas are awarded to Indians, mainly for positions in the tech sector.
• Nearly a quarter (23%) of tech workers in Silicon Valley with a bachelor’s degree or higher are Indian-born (including the current CEOs of Google, Microsoft, and IBM).
• Indian-born doctors are the largest segment of immigrant doctors in the US.

The explains what could happen if Indian students choose to go elsewhere to study and work in STEM fields:

“The broader impact on the US could be severe: hospitals facing doctor shortages, universities struggling to attract STEM students, and start-ups without the lobbying muscle of Google or Amazon are likely to be hit hardest.”

The future impact of structural bias in F-1 visa processing

The Shorelight report concludes:

“With student visa refusals in India climbing up to 60%, we’re not just denying students, we’re cutting off a critical talent pipeline for US universities, employers, and the economy. Without expanding opportunities in other high-growth regions, we’re creating a self-inflicted talent shortage. In a global race for skilled workers, the US cannot afford to turn away the very students who fuel our research, workforce, and competitiveness.”

Asked by Inside Higher Ed to comment on Shorelight’s determination that visa approvals are more determined by applicants’ home countries than by merit, the US State Department said: “All visa applications are reviewed on a case-by-case basis, in accordance with US law, and adjudicated based on the facts and circumstances of the individual case.”

Shorelight’s recommendations

Within the Shorelight report are “evidence-based solutions to address this challenge [of structural bias in F-1 visa processing],” including a call for “greater transparency in denials, standardised financial guidance, specialised training for high-refusal consulates, dual-intent for F-1 visas, and codifying OPT.” The full report .

For additional background, please see:


• “US: Student visa issuances fell by -36% in summer 2025; OPT uncertainty among factors affecting international student demand”
• “Australia: Student visa refusal rates reach record high amid weakening demand from China”

The post Visa rejections climb in the US for international students from key markets including India appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

A new resource from immigration law firm Fragomen called “” offers helpful guidance on what international students should consider when applying to a US institution, changing visa status, or leaving the US while on a visa or during a visa transition period (e.g., from an F-1 to OPT, or OPT to H-1B).

In brief, Fragomen emphasises that this is a very risky time for international students to leave the US because of a real chance that they might not be permitted re-entry.

In today’s article, we feature ��������dz����’s advice, and we also provide an update on the broader immigration landscape in terms of its implications for international students, higher education institutions, and employers. In particular, we look at why proposed changes to Optional Practical Training (OPT) and study duration limits – as well as new H-1B rules – pose challenges for US colleges’ international recruitment.

The golden pathway

The majority of international students in the US (57%) are in STEM fields: science, technology, engineering, and math. Many of them choose their academic focus to become eligible for the programme called STEM OPT (STEM Optional Practical Training), which:

• Allows international students to work in the US for up to three years (rather than the one-year term permitted for regular OPT participants).


  
• Gives them three chances to be selected through the H-1B work visa lottery system (a significant feature because of the extremely high demand for the limited number of H-1Bs granted each year). The H-1B visa, where applicants are sponsored by US employers, is valid for three years with a possible three-year extension.

In many cases, the pathway envisioned by many international prospects applying to a US university is this: Enrol in a STEM academic programme on an F-1 visa > participate in STEM OPT > apply up to three times for an H-1B visa that allows up to six years of work in the US > potentially progress to permanent residency from there.

The opportunity to pursue this pathway is central to the decision-making of most prospects considering study in the US. A 2025 survey conducted by NAFSA and the found that 54% of current international students would not have chosen the US if there was no OPT option. Another survey, the , found that 92% of US higher institutions believe that international students would choose another destination if OPT were eliminated.

Those survey findings underscore the impact of the OPT programme on an international student’s overall return on investment (ROI) for study in the US. Simply put, participating in OPT helps students to offset the high cost of a US degree, which might otherwise be prohibitive.

The pathway is under pressure

The importance of OPT to US colleges’ international enrolments highlights the massive impact that several recent proposals or rule changes by the Department of Homeland Security may have on institutions’ ability to recruit overseas. These include:

• A proposal to restrict or end the OPT programme. This proposal is currently under review. 

  
• A presidential proclamation requiring an employer to pay a US$100,000 fee for an H‑1B application filed from outside the US after 21 September 2025. This fee is now in place despite multiple legal challenges, some of which are still proceeding through the courts.


  
• A proposal to impose a fixed period limiting international students’ study visa to no more than four years. This would replace the current Duration of Stay (D/S) system that allows students to remain in the US as long as they are progressing in their academic programmes. A fixed admission period would require students to apply for extensions that they wouldn’t automatically receive. If an extension were denied, a student would be required to leave the US immediately, with no chance at OPT. This proposal is under review. Almost half (49%) of current students responding to the 2025 NAFSA/ Institute for Progress survey said they would not have enrolled in the first place had Duration of Status been replaced with a fixed period of admission.

Heightened scrutiny for international students

At the core of the current US immigration strategy is the administration’s belief that international students and workers could be a threat and even to national security.

As a result, the administration has shown that it is willing to use various policy levers to make it more difficult for international students to come to the US, and/or to stay after graduation. 

For the many international students who want to safeguard their ability to study, work, and potentially immigrate to the US, deciding to leave the country for travel can be risky. Re-entering means dealing with US immigration officers again at a time when the State Department is increasing refusals of visas for . It can be very difficult for students to challenge refusals from abroad – and for institutions to help them.

Several universities – with the help of legal experts – are counselling their international students to stay in the US for this reason. ��������dz����’s resource delves deeply into the risks for particular kinds of students based on their visa status or intended visa progression:

“International students are facing significantly heightened scrutiny, which could affect their status, ability to change status, and ability to re-enter the United States after international travel…F-1 students who have applied for, or are working on, post-completion optional practical training (OPT) or may be the beneficiary of an H-1B cap petition and a request to change status should be aware of the requirements and risks of travelling internationally.”

Fragomen adds: “This is true whether you are in an ongoing course of study, your 60-day grace period, a period of OPT (including a STEM extension), or in the ‘cap gap’ – the period between the end of your course of study or OPT and either the date a timely-filed H-1B change of status on your behalf will take effect, or April 1 (whichever is earlier).”

��������dz����’s guidance goes into to describe best practices for specific types of international students in different visa classes or circumstances.

The destabilising effect

Naavya Shetty, an Indian student finishing up her degree at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, spoke with in October 2025:

“What we [international students] felt would happen was that all these companies would develop a sense of uncertainty about hiring international students. Because who knows when a new law is going to pass that makes them have to pay a lot more for us than we might actually be ‘worth.’”

Ms Shetty explained: “In order to come here, I had to take a student loan, with a particularly high rate of interest. My parents had to mortgage our house in order for me to be able to take that loan. If I do not manage to get a job, there is quite a lot of burden on me and my family financially. The average graduate student salary [in the US] for my field is estimated to be about 100K, whereas in India, the estimated cost is around 15 to 20 lakhs – equivalent to roughly $17,000 a year.”

Keep the facts in focus

The confusing narrative around the US$100,000 H-1B application fee is daunting for employers who may not understand which applicants are affected and which are not. In fact, the fee (as of this writing) applies only to new H-1B applicants outside the US. F-1 students are exempted if they secure a job right after finishing school, which means there is no added cost for US employers wanting to hire them.

What’s more, the new rules could actually benefit F-1 international students. Employers who know about the exemption could pivot to hiring an international student graduate instead of a skilled worker outside of the US, since this would allow them to avoid the US$100,000 fee.

Law firm notes:

“[The new rules] create a sharp strategic divide. US‑based international graduates become far more attractive candidates, while employers may be reluctant to sponsor workers abroad due to the substantial additional cost …

The H-1B program is evolving into a higher cost, higher skill pathway. Employers prepared to invest in top tier talent will remain active participants, while others may pivot to alternative visa strategies or focus on international graduates already in the United States.”

The need for legal advice

��������dz����’s offers exactly the kind of counsel that can seem very elusive for students and institutions alike at this time.

For additional background, please see:

• “US suspends immigration processing for nationals from 39 travel ban countries – but F, J, and M visa processing will continue”
• “US: Student visa issuances fell by -36% in summer 2025; OPT uncertainty among factors affecting international student demand”&�Բ�����;

The post What international students need to know about study and work visas in the United States appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

“DHS has indicated it intends to re-evaluate practical training regulatory requirements for foreign student visa holders through a rulemaking,” said the Secretary. “The rule would propose to amend existing practical training regulations to protect US workers from being displaced by foreign nationals, address fraud and national security concerns, and enhance the Student and Exchange Visitor Program’s capacity to oversee the program.”

The momentum for a rule change stems from a belief in some circles that the current OPT framework takes jobs from US workers, among other assertions. ()

Recent F-1 visa data suggests that OPT’s possible termination is already having an effect on international student demand for study in the US – especially in some of the most important overseas markets for US institutions.

A strategic pillar of US recruitment

The OPT programme is increasingly popular – especially because STEM students can receive a total of three years of work due to their specialisation (regular OPT allows for only one year). Participation in the compared with the previous year.

According Mirka Martel, the Institute of International Education’s (IIE) head of research, OPT is an “essential component of an international student’s academic experience” (which is why the organisation includes OPT numbers in its annual on international student numbers in the US). Keystone Education Group research suggests that OPT may be the The firm found that 86% of international prospects consider staying in the US and working after graduation.

Visas plummet -36%

Leading up to the 2025/26 intake for US institutions, a series of events disrupted international student recruitment. The Trump administration suspended visa interviews at US consulates in May 2025, which lasted for almost a month; revoked thousands of student visas; and it warned of upcoming policies to curb the duration of student visas and post-study rights for international students. In the key summer recruiting window, President Trump also revived the travel ban preventing nationals of some countries from entering the US (and then extended it in December 2025 to 39 countries).

Alongside those events, F-1 visas plunged by -36% between May and August of 2025, according to a analysis of data.

The top market for US institutions – India – decreased much more sharply than the average: about -60%, which equates to only 22,870 new F-1 visas awarded to Indian students in those summer months. In July and August alone, the drop was nearly -80%.

Why STEM OPT is so important to international students

Of all the disruptive factors spurring the visa declines, uncertainty around the OPT programme – especially STEM OPT – could have the most significant long-term impact on international student demand – particularly in price-sensitive student markets.

The importance of STEM OPT for the families of thousands of international students can be summed up in three letters: ROI (return on investment).

This is because:

• STEM OPT participants (this is not a rule for general OPT).
  
• This means that at least two of the three years of work that STEM OPT participants engage in are paid.
  
• The three-year term of STEM OPT gives participants three chances to enter the H-1B visa lottery (one per year) – versus one chance offered by a one-year OPT term.
  
• The H-1B visa, which allows US employers to temporarily hire foreign workers for specialty occupations (mostly in STEM), is valid for three years with a possible three-year extension. Those who receive an H-1B have a better chance to become permanent residents because they gain work experience that counts towards eligibility.

STEM OPT participants’ paid work in a specialised STEM field allows them to offset the cost of their degree. The potential ROI increases even further because STEM OPT students have a better chance of receiving an H-1B visa than other students given the multiple times they can enter the lottery.

As Keystone Education Group “The calculation is straightforward: three years of US work experience can be transformative for career trajectories and provides multiple opportunities to secure H-1B sponsorship.”

What is at stake

The following data – which shows the link between international students’ demand for STEM studies in the US and the availability of OPT – foreshadows how devastating a restriction or termination of this post-study work stream could be for US universities and colleges :

• Previous research has found that in the US use their OPT work benefit.

• In 2024/25, of all international students in the US were pursuing STEM degrees, rising to 64% at the graduate level. This means that more than half of all international students in the US are eligible for STEM OPT.

• Indian students, who compose 31% of all international students in US universities and colleges, are overrepresented in STEM fields. Indians also make up nearly half (48%) of all students in the OPT STEM stream. Chinese students, who make up the next largest share of international students in the US, are the second largest nationality in STEM OPT: 21%. Without STEM OPT, the idea of paying for a STEM degree in the US would hold less appeal for Indian and Chinese students, especially given cuts to major research programmes by the Trump administration.

• Vietnam, Nepal, and Nigeria are some of the fastest-growing international student groups in the US (growing +49%, +16%, and +9%, respectively, in 2024/25 compared with 2023/24). They are also the among . US institutions are increasingly reliant on these markets as a counter to over-reliance on China and India.

What is already happening

In our own analysis of , we found that India is but one of many student source markets for which F-1 visa issuances are tanking. In July and August of 2025, F-1 visa grants fell by -78% for India, -33% for China, -17% for Vietnam, -83% for Nepal, and -63% for Nigeria. As noted earlier, international students from these countries account for a large share of STEM OPT participants.

OPT = ROI

In July of 2025, the offered a succinct analysis of what the removal of OPT would mean for Indian students:

“Let’s be clear—it will hurt Indian students. OPT is their runway to repay loans, gain experience, and build global careers. Estimates suggest that the average Indian student spends $60,000–$100,000 on a US STEM degree. Without OPT, the ROI vanishes.”

The Times continued: “Without OPT, US universities become overpriced diplomas without job prospects. Why would anyone pay $100,000 for a degree that ends in deportation? NAFSA estimates international students (led by Indians) contribute $33 billion to the US economy. Kill OPT, and watch that cash vanish.”

Effects on domestic students, institutions, and workers

The bulk of international students in the US pay tuition fees that are two to three times higher than domestic fees – and those fees are essential for many institutions to keep STEM programmes running and research facilities competitive with those in Europe and Asia. Remembering that international students make up 54% of US master’s enrolments and 44% of doctoral enrolments in STEM fields, and that OPT is a major reason for those high proportions, the declines we would see if OPT were actually removed would be even more drastic than what happened in the summer of 2025. All students would feel the impact.

The end of STEM OPT would also severely disrupt the hiring ability of major tech companies and scientific organisations in the US, making it more difficult for them to maintain innovation levels. A recent featured Madeline Zavodny, an economics professor at the University of North Florida, who examined nearly a decade of data on Optional Practical Training. She concluded:

“The results indicate that the OPT program does not reduce job opportunities for American workers in STEM fields … a larger number of foreign students approved for OPT, relative to the number of U.S. workers, is associated with a lower unemployment rate among those U.S. workers.”

Longer-term impacts

an October 2025 working paper by researchers Michael Clemens, Jeremy Neufeld, and Amy Nice, analysed different scenarios that could play out according to specific levels of decline in the number of international STEM graduates in the US. According to the “plausible” scenario of a one-third reduction in US-trained foreign graduates:

“There would be 6 to 11 percent fewer high-skill STEM workers in the U.S. workforce overall (including both foreign-born and domestic STEM workers). The best available economic research implies that, within ten years, this one-third decline in foreign STEM graduates from U.S. universities would lead to long-run GDP losses of $240 to $481 billion each year.”

For additional background, please see:

• “US proposes new rules for student visas including term limits and other restrictions“
• “US: Study estimates that changes to international student policies could reduce GDP by up to US$481 billion per year“
• “There were more international students in the US than ever in 2024/25 but commencements are declining“
• “Canada and the US are losing international student enrolments to Europe and Asia” 

The post US: Student visa issuances fell by -36% in summer 2025; OPT uncertainty among factors affecting international student demand appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

In 2025, the US government imposed, then extended, travel bans and restrictions affecting nationals from countries deemed to be a risk to American interests and security. As of this writing, the list – detailed in Presidential Proclamation (PP) 10998 – is now 39 countries long, including 19 countries whose citizens’ entry to the US is barred and 19 whose citizens face restrictions on entry. The remaining affected group (fully barred) are people who attempt to enter with Palestinian Authority-issued travel documents.

The travel ban and restrictions affect incoming visitors, workers, and students. But the list has other purposes as well. Effective immediately, if a visa holder already in the US is from one of the countries on the list, they face massive hurdles to their ability to secure or extend desired immigration benefits. According to the US Department of Homeland Security’s policy memorandum, “,” they will see their application land in a pile called “adjudicative hold.” In other words, their application will not be processed in the foreseeable future.

This includes people wanting to extend their visa status and students applying for (or hoping to extend) Optional Practical Training (OPT), the post-study work permit for F-1 international students, and those eligible for the 24-month STEM OPT extension. Other visa categories affected by the hold include the H-1B programme and the Academic Training work programme for J-1 visa holders. Adjudications of Green Card applications submitted by nationals of the 39 affected countries are also on hold. While the government states that Green Card replacement requests may be honoured as an “”, are doubtful about this.

Indefinite hold, additional review and vetting

The government has not said how long it plans to suspend the processing of immigration applications for the affected visa-holders. During the pause, it will “conduct a comprehensive review of all policies, procedures, and screening and vetting processes for benefit requests for aliens from [the affected] countries.” Further, US Citizenship and Immigration Services personnel are directed to “conduct a comprehensive re-review of approved benefit requests implicated in PP 10998 that were approved on or after January 20, 2021.”

The reasons given for the pause are that action must be taken to clamp down on “high overstay rates, significant fraud, or both,” as well as the need to protect the security of the United States. In a December press release commenting on Presidential Proclamation (PP) 10998, : “The proclamation’s rationale is based in part on visa overstay rates that are known to be deeply flawed. Using inaccurate data to justify a policy that has such far-reaching consequences for U.S. global engagement is misleading.

“The administration’s latest actions will undoubtedly prevent some of the world’s best and brightest students from contributing to US predominance in research, science, and innovation. This is yet another grave misstep that will have long-lasting consequences on U.S. global competitiveness.”

The case of Nigeria

In all, there are tens of thousands of students affected by Presidential Proclamation (PP) 10998 and the associated suspension of immigration benefits for those already in the United States. The lion’s share of these are Nigerians.

Nigerians – on the restricted list and now subject to immigration document hold and review rules – are not only an increasingly important overall source of enrolments for US higher education institutions (the eighth largest contributor in 2024/25 with 21,850 students enrolled), but they are also a major source of STEM talent.

About half of all Nigerian students in the US are in STEM fields, and Nigerian students now make up the sixth largest group of international students in (2,785 in 2024/25), following only Indians, Chinese, South Koreans, Nepalis, and Taiwanese. Nigerian students’ importance to US STEM innovation is highlighted by the fact that of those represented in STEM OPT enrolments, India, Nepal, and Nigeria were the only growth markets for US educators in 2024/25.

Trump policies significantly affecting demand or the US

In October 2025, the international student trends in the US under President Trump. Overall, there was a 19% drop in international students travelling to the US in August 2025 versus August 2024. But the falloff was much steeper for some markets:

• India: -44%
• Nigeria: -48%
• Ghana: -51%

The decline from China was not as steep (-12%) but given that China contributes more students than any other country than India, the drop is notable.

The New York Times notes: “Data from SEVIS showed that the fall spike in international student enrollment from countries with a travel ban was nearly 70 percent smaller this year.”

For additional background, please see:

• “US extends travel ban; Nigeria now included on restricted list”

The post US suspends immigration processing for nationals from 39 travel ban countries – but F, J, and M visa processing will continue appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

The extended travel ban will affect both prospective students on the banned/restricted lists as well as current students who leave the country. Otherwise, current student visa holders are exempt.

As with President Trump’s previous travel bans, the given rationale is that the expanded list is justified by the need to protect the US and its citizens. A secondary reason provided is that nationals from those on the most recent banned and/or restricted lists have high nonimmigrant visa overstay rates.

The announcement is believed to be a response to the shooting of two National Guard troops on 26 November 2025, allegedly by an Afghan national.

Most of the new countries on the list are in Africa, as shown in the screenshot below from the .

The no-entry list as of December 2025

Visitors from the following countries will continue to be banned:

• Afghanistan
• Burma
• Chad
• Republic of the Congo
• Equatorial Guinea
• Eritrea
• Haiti
• Iran
• Libya
• Somalia
• Sudan
• Yemen

The full ban now also expands to:

• Burkina Faso
• Laos
• Mali
• Niger
• Sierra Leone
• South Sudan
• Syria

Previously, citizens of Laos and Sierra Leone had been subject to restrictions, but they are now prevented from entering altogether.

In addition, President Trump has “also determined to fully restrict and limit the entry of individuals using travel documents issued or endorsed by the Palestinian Authority (PA).”

The new ban who assisted the US war effort in Afghanistan (2001 to 2021). Those Afghans put themselves in mortal danger to help the US, and there are an estimated 260,000 of them who remain abroad waiting for entry to the US. Some are in third countries, but many remain in Taliban-ruled Afghanistan and thus face risks to their freedoms or lives.

Even Afghans who have made it to the US on a Special Immigrant Visa or who are otherwise there legally .

The restricted entry list as of December 2025

People from Burundi, Cuba, Togo, and Venezuela will continue to be restricted in their ability to come to the US, as will those from 15 countries that have just been announced:

• Angola
• Antigua and Barbuda
• Benin
• Côte d ‘Ivoire
• Dominica
• Gabon
• The Gambia
• Malawi
• Mauritania
• Nigeria
• Senegal
• Tanzania
• Tonga
• Zambia
• Zimbabwe

The inclusion of Nigeria on the restricted list will be especially problematic for many US colleges and universities. Nigeria sent 22,850 students in 2024, up +9% over 2023, and is now the ninth largest source of students for US institutions.

Lists are only part of US government reaction to shooting

Before the latest travel ban announcement this week, the US government announced that it would review the immigration status of lawful permanent residents and Green Card holders who had come from 19 countries that were restricted in June.

Even before the shooting, the government said it would conduct new interviews with all refugees admitted under the Biden administration.

Response to the announcement

As reported by , Laurie Ball Cooper, vice president of US Legal Programs at the International Refugee Assistance Project, said: “This expanded ban is not about national security but instead is another shameful attempt to demonize people simply for where they are from.”

NAFSA: Association of International Educators responded in an official statement:

“Blanket travel bans based on entire nationalities or visa categories do not make the United States safer. In fact, they do the opposite. They make us weaker.

Relying on travel bans to act as a shield rather than relying on the strength of U.S. vetting protocols is essentially a retreat from global engagement. Our isolationism will create a vacuum that other enterprising nations will gladly fill. At a time when countries including China, Canada, Germany, and Japan are actively courting talented students, scholars, and researchers from around the world, this travel ban sends the message that the United States is better off without their contributions.

Furthermore, the proclamation’s rationale is based in part on visa overstay rates that are known to be deeply flawed. Using inaccurate data to justify a policy that has such far-reaching consequences for U.S. global engagement is misleading.

The administration’s latest actions will undoubtedly prevent some of the world’s best and brightest students from contributing to U.S. predominance in research, science, and innovation. This is yet another grave misstep that will have long-lasting consequences on U.S. global competitiveness.
We urge the administration to work with Congress to enact policy solutions that would reverse the damage this action and others are causing to our national interest.”

For additional background, please see:

• “US warns of expanded travel ban that could affect key African markets“
• “What are the latest developments for international students in the United States?“

The post US extends travel ban, Nigeria now included on “restricted” list appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

These are the highlights of the newly released by NAFSA, Oxford Test of English, and Studyportals, which surveyed 461 universities across 63 countries about their international enrolments in the latest intake (August–October 2025).

An important methodological note is that more than half the sample was composed of universities in Canada (20), the UK (39), and the US (201). Just over 130 European universities participated. Asia was the least represented (26 across all Asian countries in the sample).

Overall, a majority of institutions reported having more issues with visa restrictions and government policies: 68% vs. 51% in 2024. This is a big leap, and it is being driven by the responses of university respondents in North America. In the US, fully 85% of institutional respondents said visa barriers are now a major concern (up from 58% in 2024). Visa and immigration issues rose even further in Canada (90%).

Canadian and US universities report significant enrolment drops

Of the Canadian university respondents surveyed, 82% said their undergraduate enrolments are lower than last year, and 71% said the same about postgraduate enrolments. Nearly half (48%) of their US counterparts saw fewer undergraduate students in the fall 2025 intake, and 63% said the same for postgraduate students.

The situation is especially worrisome for Canadian universities, which are recording large decreases in new international enrolments (i.e., students coming for a study programme in Canada for the first time). As shown in the table below, new enrolments are down by more than a third at both the bachelor’s and master’s levels. The US is down significantly in new enrolments at the master’s level, and moderately for bachelor’s programmes.

Meanwhile, Asian universities are welcoming notably more new students into bachelor’s programmes, and European institutions are seeing a nice bump at the master’s level. UK university respondents report moderate increases in new international students at both levels.

One Asian respondent commented: “The Big Four countries’ policies of restricting international student admissions have given a favorable opportunity for East Asian countries to increase their intake.”&�Բ�����;

Postgraduate enrolments have declined more comprehensively than undergraduate ones

Across all regions in the survey, under half of institutions saw their postgraduate enrolments grow in the fall 2025 intake. That said, European universities are faring better than most, with three-quarters (75%) experiencing stable or increased growth and only a quarter (25%) hosting fewer international graduate students. By contrast, just 28% of Canadian university respondents reported stable or increased growth.

Major obstacles to recruiting international students

UK university respondents see government policies as less of a concern than those in the US or UK. For them, affordability is the biggest issue in terms of attracting international students, as shown in the table below. For Asian institutions, lack of affordable housing is the top barrier, followed by affordability. But other than in Asia, visa policies are either the first or second top concern.

An American respondent said, “Restrictive immigration policies will continue to impact international student enrollment. The proposed changes to the H-1B process and possible changes to CPT and OPT will impact decision-making regardless of the outcomes of those policy proposals.”

Priorities moving into 2026

Overall, most university respondents in the sample chose “diversifying into new markets” as their top priority for the next 12 months (see table below). Interestingly, Asia was the outlier, with “more aggressive enrolment goals” narrowly edging out diversification (27% to 23%, respectively). In Asia, many countries (e.g., South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, India) have official goals to increase their international enrolments, and we see that reflected in this top priority for Asian respondents.

Universities in Canada and the US are the most intent on diversifying (60% and 51%, respectively), perhaps because risk mitigation is more of a concern as Chinese and Indian demand has become more unpredictable.

Unfortunately, Canada stands out as the country in which at least half of universities are planning budget cuts (60%) or staffing cuts (50%). These percentages are far above the ones we see in other regions in the sample.

Highlighting the importance of diversification, one Canadian respondent said: “We’re seeing sharp declines from major source markets like India and China, while interest grows in emerging regions such as Africa and Southeast Asia. Canadian institution.”

The big shift

As government policies continue to challenge North American and UK institutions, international students are demonstrably switching their focus to alternative destinations. In the last Global Benchmark Report, which centred on the January-March 2025 intake, Studyportals produced this graph that shows student search volumes for bachelor’s and master’s programmes on Studyportals websites over the six months leading to that study.

A call for industry collaboration and lobbying

Dr Fanta Aw, executive director and CEO of NAFSA: Association of International Educators commented on the study findings:

“We are navigating one of the most dynamic moments in international education, driven in no small part by shifts in U.S. visa and immigration policy. The ripple effects of these policy changes are being felt across campuses and communities around the world. This moment calls on our higher education institutions to be nimble and deeply attuned to the needs of their students—and it calls on us, as an ecosystem, to continue pressing policymakers for greater consistency and clarity throughout the international student journey.”

Looking at the findings for the UK, Jamie Arrowsmith, Director, UK Universities International (UUKi) said:

“This report highlights the importance of affordability, even before the proposed introduction of the international student levy in England. This means that most institutions will have to absorb the cost to remain competitive. However, it’s welcome to see confirmation that students value the Graduate route and certainty in the policy environment. That’s why it’s absolutely vital that we now have a period of sustained policy stability in our offer to international students.”

For additional background, please see:

• “Global survey underscores demand shift from ‘Big Four’ to ‘Big Ten’“
• “The changing face of international student mobility“
• “What students want: The top decision factors for study abroad“

The post Canada and the US are losing international student enrolments to Europe and Asia  appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

That was in itself a significant development, as the H-1B is one of two main pathways for foreign students to stay and work in the United States after graduation. The other is the Optional Practical Training (OPT) programme.

OPT provides foreign graduates with an opportunity to stay and work for up to 12 months (up to 36 for STEM graduates). The programme is heavily used, and it has grown dramatically since 2000.

A new resource, , provides a careful analysis of data to illustrate growth in use of the H-1B, along with a number of other key indicators for the programme. It finds, for example, that the number of OPT participants grew from roughly 128,000 in 2010 to just over 300,000 by 2022.

Overall, more than half (56%) of all international graduates in the US from 2010–2022 participated in OPT.

The programme is structurally biased towards STEM graduates and so, not surprisingly, participation is especially high for graduates from STEM fields, and especially for those holding advanced degrees. The OPT Observatory explains: “In 2022, 68% of STEM graduates used OPT compared to only 50% of non-STEM graduates. In the same year, 67% of PhD and 64% of master’s graduates participated in OPT. At 76%, the group of graduates with the highest rate of participation in OPT was STEM PhDs.”

The analysis adds: “OPT is the single most important pathway for high-skilled immigrants trained at US institutions to stay and work after graduation, and acts as an important bridge to other work visas by allowing international graduates to find employers who will sponsor them to stay in the US.”

A recently published paper, co-authored by IFP’s Jeremy Neufeld and Amy Nice, echoes the point: “International education is the primary ‘front door’ for US high-skill STEM immigrants to enter the US workforce.”

Changes to OPT could be looming

The confusion around the H-1B was the only the latest in a series of dizzying policy announcements and interventions by the federal government with respect to higher education in the United States and international students in particular. That the government has also signalled its willingness to reform or even cancel the OPT programme is therefore a source of real concern for higher education institutions, employers, and foreign students in the US.

Most notably, US Customs and Immigration Services Director Joseph Edlow indicated during his that he intends to review and possibly even rescind the OPT programme.

US lawmakers have subsequently introduced legislation that would cancel or otherwise revise the programme, about which Chris Glass, a professor with the Center for International Higher Education at Boston College, has written very persuasively on .

He concludes: “OPT reform is coming. Major restructuring at minimum, outright elimination possible. When the ‘breaking news’ alert arrives on your phone, don’t be surprised.

It will happen all of the sudden, just like the 6,000+ SEVIS record revocations, the 3-week ‘visa pause,’ the proposed elimination of Duration of Status (DOS), and the announcement of a $100K fee for H-1B visas.

The timing is unclear. But some kind of action appears likely. And I expect sometime within the next few months.”

Making the link to international recruitment

In September 2025, the Institute for Progress and NAFSA released the findings from a survey of prospective and current international students in the US. The survey was conducted over August and September, and it found that most current students (64%) were intending to the stay in the United States after graduation.

The survey also demonstrates conclusively that any substantive changes to OPT or the H-1B programme could have .

More than half of respondents (54%) said they would not have come to study in the US had OPT been rescinded. A similar proportion said changes to H-1B would also have discouraged them from coming to the US to study.

Making the link to the innovation economy

In their October paper, Mr Neufeld and Ms Rice, along with co-author Michael Clemons, set out that foreign graduates have on innovation and on the economy in the US.

“International students who remain in the United States after their education are, collectively and disproportionately, a force for economic growth. Immigrants founded 44% of all ‘unicorn’ billion-dollar startup companies from 1997 to 2019, and immigrants or their children founded 46% of the ‘Fortune 500’ largest firms in America. Of the immigrants who founded high-potential startups backed by venture capital, 75% came to the United States as international students – not on work visas, not on family visas, not by any other channel.”

The paper goes on to model two scenarios, each of which could be considered as reasonably conservative, and especially so in light of the findings from the NAFSA/IFP survey.

• Scenario #1: A one-third reduction in the number of foreign STEM graduates from US universities retained in the US labour market.
• Scenario #2: A 10% reduction in the number of foreign STEM graduates from US universities entering the US labour market.

Under the first scenario, the macroeconomic analysis finds:

“Over a ten-year period, lost annual productivity growth of 0.079 to 0.158% causes GDP at the end of that decade to be 0.79 to 1.57% smaller. This is a percent decline in annual GDP, not a percentage-point decline in annual growth of GDP. That reduction in GDP equates in size to the loss the U.S. economy would suffer from the disappearance of the entire economy of South Carolina (about 1.2 percent of national GDP), Utah (1.0 percent of national GDP), or Wisconsin (1.5 percent of national GDP). If such a loss occurred today, amid the United States’s US$30.4 trillion economy, it would be valued at US$240 to US$481 billion.”

The analysis concludes that the more modest reduction anticipated in Scenario #2 (-10%) would nevertheless result in a reduction in GDP “valued at US$72 to US$145 billion.”

Leaving aside the prospect of further changes to key programmes such as OPT or H-1B, the authors note that the current uncertainty created by erratic policy movement and process change in the US is likely already having an impact.

“As wait times grow and uncertainty increases, fewer top candidates choose the United States as their preferred destination. Meanwhile, as other countries modernize their immigration systems, they will actively recruit the talent that America is losing. If current policy measures to deter foreign students from coming to the United States succeed, they will leave a large and lasting hole in the high-skill STEM workforce, in the national capacity to innovate, and in the prosperity of future generations.”

For additional background, please see:

• “Trump administration’s proposed deal with select US colleges includes a cap on international undergraduate enrolment“
• “China opens up to global STEM talent with new visa class“
• “US administration’s new H-1B policies create uncertainty around post-study work rights“
• “US: Visa status of foreign graduates on OPT under renewed scrutiny“

The post US: Study estimates that changes to international student policies could reduce GDP by up to US$481 billion per year appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

The H-1B programme is a key policy mechanism for international students in the United States. Aside from the heavily used Optional Practical Training (OPT) programme, the H-1B is for foreign students to stay and work in the United States after graduation.

The current version of the H-1B was established in 1990 as a visa class for foreign nationals who come to the US to work in “specialty occupations.” In practice, this has meant that the programme skews heavily to graduates from STEM fields (science, technology, engineering, and math) or in other professional streams. As of 2023, for example, the majority of H-1B visas were issued for technology specialists, such as computer scientists or engineers.

As such, the programme has played a pivotal role in retaining highly skilled talent in the United States, and especially so for Chinese and Indian graduates over the years. This has in turn had a massive impact on technological advancement and innovation in the country. And it would not be overstating the case to say that the H-1B is a major factor in the attractiveness of the US for foreign students, as it provides the main pathway to long-term post-graduate work opportunities in the country. For many, it is also a stepping stone to a green card and permanent residency in the United States.

“Many of the workers who have received the [H-1B] visas are software engineers, computer programmers and others in the technology industry,” says a recent report in the . “Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Apple and IBM were among the companies that employed the most H-1B visa holders last year, according to US Citizenship and Immigration Services. But many do work in other professions, including education, health care and manufacturing…There is no cap for each country, and a vast majority — between about two-thirds and just over three-quarters — of recipients come from one: India.”

The programme is employer-sponsored, which means that prospective employers must file a petition on behalf of an H-1B candidate. Aside from explicitly connecting a foreign graduate with a job opportunity in the US, the petition is meant to demonstrate the specialised skills and training required for the role.

The initial H-1B is valid for a period of three years, and can be extended up to a maximum of six years. Further extensions may be possible for visa holders pursuing permanent residency.

The programme operates with an annual cap of 65,000, and an additional 20,000 spaces for those with advanced degrees for a total annual allocation of 85,000 visas. The H-1Bs are awarded via a lottery system currently.

The cost for an H-1B visa ranges between roughly US$2,000 and US$5,000. Petitioning employers pay an initial registration fee of US$215 and then additional fees if their candidate is awarded a visa.

Scale of impact

A January 2025 analysis from public policy group estimates that there are as many as 730,000 H-1B holders in the US this year, with an additional 550,000 accompanying dependants.

This means that the programme accounts for roughly 1.3 million US residents. FWD.us further estimates that, “H-1B holders and their spouses contribute US$86 billion annually to the US economy and pay approximately US$24 billion in federal and payroll taxes, as well as US$11 billion in state and local taxes each year. H-1B holders also contribute to their local economies; for example, H-1B holders own 300,000 homes and nearly 1 million vehicles.”

The $100,000 question

On 19 September 2025, US President Donald Trump announced that petitioning employers would now be required in order to secure an H-1B visa.

The administration has that this fee applies to new applications only, specifically to those filed after 12:01 am ET on 21 September 2025.

President Trump’s proclamation argues that the fee is necessary because the H-1B visa class “has been deliberately exploited to replace, rather than supplement, American workers with lower-paid, lower-skilled labor. The large-scale replacement of American workers through systemic abuse of the program has undermined both our economic and national security.”

The massive fee increase has stirred controversy and concern, both within the US and abroad. The general expectation is that many prospective US employers will opt not to pay the large fee, and that the H-1B path will be badly eroded as a result. Others have speculated that this will concentrate H-1B-supported talent even more heavily within the largest technology companies in the United States.

A report in Al Jazeera sets out that, “Trump’s move could lead to weaker economic growth in the US, experts have warned, since higher costs for employers will make it harder to retain foreign talent. It could also lead to a near-term ‘brain drain’, as skilled university graduates are forced to leave the US in favour of other countries.” The report notes a number of other nations, including the UK and China, that are taking concrete measures to attract skilled talent.

Meanwhile, major technology employers in Silicon Valley urged H-1B holders not to travel outside the US until the implications of the new rule became more clear. This led to scenes like one widely circulated example from an Emirates flight in San Franciso. The flight had boarded and was about to take off for Dubai when the news of the H-1B policy broke, leading a number of Indian passengers to abruptly disembark rather than risk not be able to re-enter the country.

The move has also been widely covered in India, where the press reaction has been one of alarm and condemnation. “US President Donald Trump’s newly announced H-1B visa fee hike has shattered so many Indians’ dreams,” said one report in . The overarching theme of the coverage is that the link between study in the United States and the opportunity to stay and work in the country has been broken.

Writing on LinkedIn, Toronto-based immigration consultant Gautham Kolluri described the 19 September proclamation as, “[The] end of an era for the Silicon Valley, for the Indian Tech community, and a sad day for international students in the US.”

India’s Ministry of External Affairs has weighed in as well, cautioning that the move could create “humanitarian consequences” by disrupting families.

More changes ahead

The President’s 19 September proclamation alluded to further changes in the H-1B to follow, and the first of those emerged on 24 September when the Department of Homeland Security published a proposed rule setting out a new “.”

“Under the existing H-1B registration process, [DHS] runs the H-1B selection process to randomly select unique beneficiaries based on properly submitted electronic registrations,” says the supporting information for the rule change. “DHS proposes to amend the process through which it selects registrations for unique beneficiaries to move away from a purely random selection process to a weighted selection process…Specifically, the proposal would weight registrations (or petitions) for selection generally based on each beneficiary’s equivalent wage levels…Through the proposed regulatory revisions, DHS aims to implement the numerical cap in a way that incentivises employers to offer higher wages, or to petition for positions requiring higher skills and higher skilled aliens, that are commensurate with higher wage levels.”

The proposed rule is now subject to a 30-day comment period, beginning on 24 September.

A possible legal challenge

It appears likely that the President’s H-1B proclamation will be subjected to legal challenge. “Several immigrant advocacy groups and business groups have said that Trump’s proclamation is illegal and that they could sue to block the order along with any regulations federal agencies adopt to implement it,” says . The report continues, “Trump’s order is unprecedented and it is unclear whether it is legally valid. Federal immigration law allows U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, which processes visa applications, to collect fees, but only those necessary to cover the costs of administering the program. And some experts said that because the existing fee structure was authorized by Congress and is periodically tweaked by USCIS through formal regulations, it is unlikely the president has the power to separately impose additional fees.”

Regardless of the outcome of any such legal challenge, the 19 September proclamation has signals the US administration’s continued willingness to re-write the country’s immigration policies as they pertain to foreign students. And it has for now placed a considerable measure of uncertainty in front of prospective and current students alike, especially those that were intending to pursue an H-1B after their studies.

For additional background, please see:

• “US proposes new rules for student visas including term limits and other restrictions“
• “US: International commencements could drop by 30-40% this September“
• “US institutions bracing for a challenging enrolment outlook for 2025/26“
• “China opens up to global STEM talent with new visa class“

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