There is some overlap between the two in that they jointly regulate institutions that provide programming across higher education and VET, and they share jurisdiction over CRICOS-registered providers (the Commonwealth Register of Institutions and Courses for Overseas Students) delivering courses to international students.

The interests of the two regulators are naturally aligned in some ways, but TEQSA and ASQA rarely issue joint statements. However, earlier this month, they did just that, that they are watching how providers and agents are behaving with regards to onshore student transfers.

The joint message says:

“TEQSA and ASQA are aware of concerns that some advertising by registered providers appears inconsistent with the intent of the ban on the payment of education agent commissions in relation to onshore transfers.

“Both agencies view any attempts by providers or education agents to bypass this restriction as unacceptable and providers who are not adequately managing these risks or not meeting the relevant Standards may be subject to a compliance assessment and/or regulatory action.”

The caution speaks directly to a new rule that was introduced in January 2026, and that came into force on 31 March 2026. Under the new rule, education agents are no longer permitted to receive commissions from Australian schools and universities when an international student already in Australia (an “onshore student”) transfers from one institution to another without having completed their course with the previous provider.

The rule appears in revisions to the National Code of Practice – formally, – and it was part of a package of amendments to the Education Services for Overseas Students Act (ESOS) passed in November 2025.

The joint TEQSA-ASQA alert goes on to say that the two regulators have specific concerns in the following areas:

• Recruitment or incentive arrangements that preserve commission-based behaviour (for onshore transfers);
• Practices that encourage and facilitate unnecessary transfers of students from other providers;
• Insufficient provider oversight of education agents;
• Providers failing to declare their arrangements with third parties facilitating student transfers;
• Improper management of data around agent activities and student enrolment, including inaccurate or delayed reporting;
• Weak governance, controls, monitoring or record-keeping practices around recruitment and student enrolment;
• Providers with poor risk management practices in respect of accepting higher risk students who have transferred from another provider and do not appear to be academically prepared for their new course.

The alert then outlines the compliance expectations the regulators have for providers working with agents on onshore transfers:

“Providers need to be able to demonstrate, through robust governance oversight, that their arrangements, practices and controls are consistent with the recent changes to the National Code preventing the payment of education agent commissions in relation to onshore overseas student transfers.”

TEQSA and ASQA expect all providers to undertake a check of their current processes and practices, including:

• Reviewing agreements with education agents and other third parties;
• Checking what education agents are promoting in-market;
• Reviewing admissions and transfer practices to ensure they do not contravene the ban on onshore transfers;
• Demonstrating compliance through clear policies, monitoring, and record-keeping.

The instruction concludes with a more specific warning: “Providers who are not adequately managing these risks or not meeting the relevant Standards may be subject to a compliance assessment and/or regulatory action.”

The joint alert makes it clear that TEQSA and ASQA are concerned about onshore transfers; that they expect providers to take any actions needed to address these concerns; and that they may ramp up compliance checks or other interventions going forward.

Regular readers will appreciate that this is not strictly an Australian story. Rather, the direction of travel is clear across destinations: providers should expect greater scrutiny of their international recruitment activities by governments and regulators. Implementing effective quality checks and oversight of recruitment programmes is key to compliance.

For additional background, please see:

• “Australia introduces new rules restricting agent commissions for onshore student transfers“
• “Narrowing bands of compliance: How the UK’s new RAG system will impact international student recruitment“
• “Who decides about quality? Education agents and the question of increased regulation“

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It has set the National Planning Level (NPL), its system for controlling the flow of foreign students into universities and vocational (VET) education providers, at 295,000 new student spaces distributed across those institutions. This is the same number as last year, and the government considers this a continuation of a managed growth approach that “has been effective in returning student numbers to a more sustainable level in 2025, and so far in 2026.”

For background, the NPL system dictates that visa applications are processed normally for an institution that fills up to 80% of their allotted new student spaces. Beyond that 80% threshold, visa processing slows for that institution relative to others that stay within the threshold. The system aims to curtail over-aggressive international recruitment.

The NPL, however, is not the only way in which the government is constraining growth. On top of visa processing controls, a range of other recent policies make it more difficult for international students to choose Australia as a study destination. These include:

• Visa application fees that have risen repeatedly over the past couple of years and which now stand at AU$2,500 for a study visa and AU$5,750 for a post-study work visa. These are the highest in the world, and they are non-refundable for students who end up being rejected.

• High visa rejection rates, especially for Indians, Bangladeshis, and Nepalis.

The government’s satisfaction with how the National Planning Level is working obscures the fact that higher fees and rejection rates are causing international student demand to fall well below what might be considered “sustainable.” Some Australia institutions are not able to reach their allocation levels due to declining volumes of applications and enrolments.

The following chart shows trends in commencements (new student arrivals) over time, and it illustrates the sharp decreases from 2023–2025.

What is the real target?

from minister of education Jason Clare, assistant minister for international education Julian Hill, and skills minister Andrew Giles acknowledges:

“Current tracking indicates international student commencements are on track to be below the NPL for both 2026 and 2027. Commencements in 2026 are down 8 per cent compared to the same period in 2025, and 13 per cent lower than 2019.”

So, the NPL may be set at 295,000 in 2026 and 2027 – but the fact that commencements are coming in well below that threshold appears not to be an issue for the government. This seems quite likely given the follow-up statement in the press release:

“The decision to freeze the NPL at current levels accompanies adjustments to student visa fees.”

Mr Clare, Mr Hill, and Mr Giles all issued comments about the 2027 arrangements:

• Mr Clare: “International education is an incredibly important export industry for Australia, but we need to manage it sustainably. This is about making sure international education supports students, universities and the national interest.”

• Mr Hill: “The Albanese Government inherited a mess from the Liberals in 2022, with unsustainably high growth in student numbers in the least reputable parts of the sector and student visas being misused by crooks and shonks. The Government will not back off from managing the size and the shape of the onshore international student market and ongoing moderation in student numbers towards a more sustainable sector. Australia continues to welcome genuine international students seeking a premium Australian education which is great for our unis, domestic students and research.”

• Mr Giles: “International VET strengthens outcomes for students and supports our workforce, while deepening valuable global partnerships. Today’s announcement provides certainty for the international VET sector, enabling it to continue delivering sustainable growth and high-quality skills outcomes.”

Universities Australia Chief Executive Officer Luke Sheehy issued his own statement on behalf of the sector:

“Sustainability and integrity matter, and universities support both. Keeping new overseas commencements steady gives the sector something to plan around, but it is a long way from the sustainable, managed growth the government promised two years ago.

“Today’s announcement confirms there will be no growth next year. We recognise this may be appropriate in the current context, but the bigger problem is that the policy settings behind the number are making even this steady target harder to reach.

“If the government keeps making Australia more expensive and more difficult for genuine students to choose, we’re going to fall short – and we’re already seeing that risk emerge.

“That’s bad for our sector and Australia. It means fewer skilled workers, weaker productivity and a $55 billion export sector supporting 250,000 jobs put at risk.

“Many universities, particularly in regional and outer suburban Australia, are ready, willing and able to welcome more international students.

“International education is one of Australia’s great success stories, but it’s being steadily eroded by policies that do not serve our universities, our economy or our skills needs.

“A big number on paper means little if the policies behind it make it harder to deliver in practice.
That’s the contradiction at the heart of the current approach. The government says it wants almost 300,000 new international students, while keeping in place policies that make that harder to achieve.

“Unless the broader settings change, the 2027 allocation risks being just another number – not a plan that delivers the skills, jobs and growth Australia needs.”

More details about the NPL arrangements for 2027

None of the education providers subject to the NPL will receive fewer applications in 2027 than in 2026

The following are exempted from the NPL’s allocations:

• Schools
• Students studying standalone ELICOS courses
• Higher degree by research students
• Non-award students, including short term exchange students
• Students studying at TAFE and students enrolled in VET courses at Dual Sector public universities
• Students awarded certain scholarships including from foreign governments, multilateral organisations and Australian governments
• Students that are part of certain Australian Transnational Education (TNE) arrangements in higher education or VET approved by the Department of Education or the Department of Employment and Workplace Relations
• Students from the Pacific and Timor-Leste
• Students in pilot training courses
• International students transitioning from secondary school studies in Australia to tertiary study (higher education or VET)
• Students transitioning from embedded pathway providers or TAFE institutes to affiliated publicly funded universities
• Students transferring providers as a direct result of a provider closing or otherwise being unable to continue training.

For additional background, please see:

• “Australia: Multiple data indicators signal further declines ahead for international student numbers”
• “Surprise hike in international student visa application fees ‘a direct hit to Australia’s competitiveness’”
• “Australia: Latest enrolment data challenges the government’s assertion of stability for international education this year”

The post Australia: As visa applications from foreign students fall, the government has set the national target for new international students in 2027 appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

The order dictates that “no applications may be made to the National VET Regulator under section 9 of the Act until after the day 12 months after the day this instrument commences.” The order is in immediate effect and it means that the Australian Skills Quality Authority (ASQA) will not accept applications from new providers or for new courses for a 12-month period beginning 19 May 2026.

The order specifically prevents any new applications for registration in the Commonwealth Register of Institutions and Courses for Overseas Students (CRICOS). CRICOS is Australia’s official government register of education providers and courses that are approved to enrol international students. And The Education Services for Overseas Students (ESOS) Act 2000 requires that any Australian institution enrolling visa-holding foreign students must be registered on CRICOS.

The 18 May order applies to private vocational education and training (VET) providers as well as those in the English Language Intensive Courses for Overseas Students (ELICOS) sector. Public providers, including TAFEs and public universities, are exempt.

In other words, during the year-long freeze, no new private VET or ELICOS providers may be established, nor may existing private-sector providers establish any new courses.

A background brief accompanying the assistant minister’s order explains that there are two exceptions:

“The Suspension will not apply to applications made by any existing provider that relate to adding:

• a location for a course the provider is already registered on CRICOS to deliver
• a course identified as superseded (non-equivalent) on the National Register (www.training.gov.au), where the provider is already registered to deliver the superseded (non-equivalent) course.”

An accompanying statement from Mr Hill says that the freeze is necessary to “provide ASQA with additional time to address sector integrity issues while processing existing applications with a focus on rigour, scrutiny, and integrity.”

The assistant minister draws a direct line in his comments from the order to two substantive government reviews of Australia’s immigration system – the Rapid Review into the Exploitation of Australia’s Visa System (the Nixon Review) and the Migration Review in 2023 – which identified “significant integrity concerns within Australia’s international education system, particularly in the vocational education and training (VET) sector.”

“Suspending new registrations to teach international students VET or English language onshore is not a decision taken lightly and will allow the Government to address integrity concerns about new market entrants and oversaturation in the international VET and ELICOS sectors,” added the Assistant Minister. “Frankly, it raises suspicions when at the same time student numbers in these parts of the sector are moderating the regulator continues to see a rush of new market entrants.”

A blunt instrument

“The Albanese Government has quietly dropped one of the most consequential blows to Australia’s international education sector in years and it landed without warning,” says . “This is not simply a technical regulatory change. It is a deliberate attempt to reshape the international education market to favour public providers while freezing out the private sector…It freezes the entire pipeline of new entrants regardless of quality, innovation, or workforce relevance. It also blocks private providers from diversifying their offerings.”

Ian Pratt, Managing Director at Lexis English, also questioned the government’s approach, noting that, “We now appear to have reached the point where, instead of properly resourcing regulators to assess applications and enforce standards, the solution is simply to stop accepting applications altogether.”

“Instead of empowering the regulator to identify and remove poor operators, the government has chosen a blanket suspension targeting an entire segment of the sector,” he added on LinkedIn. “The genuinely frustrating part is that quality independent providers are not the problem here. Many of the most innovative, student-focused and internationally responsive organisations in Australian education sit within the private sector. These are the providers building niche programmes, responding quickly to employer demand, investing in student experience, and actively supporting regional economies.”

Part of a larger pattern?

The freeze on new CRICOS registrations arrives in the midst of an ongoing political debate around migration levels in Australia. Both the governing and opposition parties have offered policy positions based in part on reducing immigration levels, including with respect to international students.

A statement from Universities Australia Chief Executive Officer Luke Sheehy cautions in response that, “After two years of instability and policy swings, what the sector and students need now is stability, certainty and a clear long-term strategy.

“International students are not the low-hanging fruit both sides of politics are treating them as in the migration debate. Significant cuts to international student numbers would have real consequences for the economy and our universities at a time both are doing it tough.

“Australia cannot afford another race to the bottom driven by stop-start policy settings, political signalling or measures that damage our economy, our universities and our global reputation.”

For additional background, please see:

• “Australia: Multiple data indicators signal further declines ahead for international student numbers“
• “Australia: Student visa refusal rates reach record high amid weakening demand from China“
• “New IDP research shows link between visa uncertainty and the perceived ROI of study abroad“

The post Australia orders a year-long pause on new VET and ELICOS provider registrations appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

The context here is the past three years of new policy settings and greater government intervention to manage student inflows, as well as two successive student visa application fee hikes. As of this writing, the non-refundable fee of AU$2,000 is the highest in the world. The cost of a student visa – and the very real possibility for students from many markets that their application will be refused – is dampening demand, especially for students coming for relatively shorter programmes, such as English-language courses.

Unravelling the data

Presenting the analysis to IEAA members in April 2026, English Australia CEO Ian Aird showcased the importance of clarifying the source, time frame, and implications of often misunderstood data indicators for Australia’s international education sector. For example:

• Enrolments vs. student numbers: In Australia, course enrolments tend to be the main data point presented in international education summaries and covered by media. They are sometimes confused with international student numbers – which are something quite different. Enrolments are always far higher than student numbers because international students often enrol in multiple courses in a given year (e.g., two back-to-back English-language courses of four months each would be counted as two enrolments for a single student).

• Commencements vs. NTAs: General commencement numbers comprise both students coming for the first time to study in Australia and students already in Australia who progress from a completed course to a new course. But “New-to-Australia” (NTA) commencements describe only offshore students enrolling for the first time ever in Australia.

Each of those four indicators – course enrolments, student numbers, commencements, and NTA commencements – tell very different stories. Of the four, enrolments are the least indicative of the current and future state of affairs. Mr Aird explains:

“Both enrolment and commencement figures must be recognised as ‘lag indicators’ in terms of sector health. That is, the enrolments are students who may have started their courses months and sometimes years ago. Even commencements are students who booked, paid for, and were granted visas months before they commence. If a commencement is part of a pathway, it too could have been booked years before it is indicated in the official data.

This means that the majority of 2025 enrolments and many 2025 commencements are students who were not impacted by any of the 2024 changes to the student visa system and government policy.”

Why NTAs are more predictive of future trends

New-to-Australia commencement data offers a stronger indication of international student demand under the current settings – and relatedly, factors either easing or challenging students’ ability to come to Australia. This is because NTA counts represent new students coming into Australia within the recent past (as opposed to enrolments, for example, where data could represent demand from years prior, before the new policy settings came into force). Therefore, the latest NTA data reflects students who have relatively recently:

• Wanted to apply to an institution in Australia
• Decided to pay the fee for a visa application (currently AU$2,000)
• Had their visa approved

When NTAs fall, it suggests that fewer students now consider it worthwhile to apply for a visa and/or more students who are having their visa rejected. A recent decline suggests that the trend will continue unless current circumstances change. Right now, that context is Australia’s extraordinarily expensive visa application fee and high rate of visa refusals.

Recent increases or decreases in the volume of visa applications and in the visa approval rate provide an even better sense of the future trendline for the sector. These can also be divided into applications made in Australia (hence, re-enrolling students) and applications made outside Australia (generally, New-to-Australia students).

Have NTAs fallen?

New-to-Australia commencements have indeed fallen (see Chart 1 below), and this decline coincides with both a lower application volume (Chart 2) and a higher visa refusal rate for students from key markets.

Below, Chart 1 shows that whole-sector NTAs have dropped significantly over the past two years and are significantly lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic. Chart 2 reveals that the number of students submitting visa applications fell by 32% from the post-COVID rebound peak in 2023 to 2025.

The damage to ELICOS and VET providers is the most severe

The picture for the ELICOS and VET sectors is considerably bleaker than the all-sector aggregate: a -40% y-o-y New-to-Australia commencement decline in 2025 for ELICOS and a -49% fall for VET. Chart 3 (below) shows the pattern for ELICOS.

As English Australia notes, there is a clear connection between the timing of visa application fee hikes and plummeting applications (and NTAs) for ELICOS:

“The student visa application charge went from AU$710 to AU$1,600 from 1 July 2024. This saw the monthly average student visa applications for ELICOS study fall by 34% versus pre-COVID (2018–2019) application levels or 46% versus post-COVID (2023) application levels. The increase of the student visa application charge to AU$2,000 from 1 July 2025 saw applications for ELICOS fall a further 27%.”

What about higher education?

The higher education sector has so far fared better than other kinds of providers because (1) many of the universities have the advantage of streamlined visa processing, which means their applicants aren’t scrutinised to nearly the extent as for other sectors, and (2) students are more willing to pay the visa application fee because it is a smaller proportion of the cost of a degree. For example, from 2024 to 2025:

• Higher education course enrolments rose by +9.7%;
• Commencements also increased slightly (+0.7%);
• New-to-Australia commencements were down by only -0.5%.

However, the sector’s resilience is now being tested in multiple ways. Major challenges include a decline in demand from China and high visa refusal rates for other key markets.

Chart 4 shows the proportion of applications from the top 10 source countries for higher education. The top 10 countries are traditionally responsible for 85% of all HE applications from offshore (that is, new students in the system). In Q4 2025, Chinese applications accounted for over 4 in 10 (43%) of these offshore applications. This fell to a third (34%) in January 2026 and to less than a quarter (23%) in February 2026.

By contrast, demand from India, Nepal, and Bangladesh has risen to the point where 65% of offshore applications from the top 10 are from these three countries. But much of this demand is being stopped at the border. In February 2026, 40% of Indians applying for a visa for study at an Australian university were rejected, as were 51% of Bangladeshis and 65% of Nepalis.

Lower interest from China – coupled with high visa rejection rates for students from other top markets –will almost certainly lead to a decline in Australian university commencements and enrolments in the coming intakes.

Are Australian government policies working?

To manage immigration, the Australian government is working to better link migrant profiles to labour force skills gaps. It wants to reduce net migration to pre-pandemic levels though policies aimed at increasing barriers for low-skilled temporary visa holders to work and immigrate.

Mr Aird presented a slide (shown below) showing that of eight temporary visa categories, only one is being affected by this mission: international students. He commented:

“Where government is talking about the number of temporary visa holders, and they’re taking all sorts of actions to control and manage that, they’re actually managing only one group – student visa holders. The other groups are all increasing significantly.”

The English Australia report reminds readers: “It’s vital to remember these numbers relate to real people. Falling student numbers means lost jobs in Australia, lost livelihoods.”

For additional background, please see:

• “Australia: Student visa refusal rates reach record high amid weakening demand from China”
• “Australia: Latest enrolment data challenges the government’s assertion of stability for international education this year“
• “Australia: Full-year data for 2025 reveals impact of AUD$2,000 study visa application fee on ELICOS sector“
• “Australia passes integrity legislation; sharpens definition of agents and agent commissions“

The post Australia: Multiple data indicators signal further declines ahead for international student numbers appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

As the impact of the international student caps on our universities dominates the headlines, spare a thought for the high quality private VET providers who have never been involved in fraudulent activities or student exploitation. The best of them are decent, kind, dedicated entrepreneurs who have a passion for education.

Sadly they too are the collateral damage in the newly announced student visa caps – and the impact on their operations will be much more extreme than on any of our universities or TAFE Institutes.

While I personally agree with the government’s intention that tertiary education providers who teach international students should aim for a mix of domestic and international students (and we could debate what the ‘right’ mix of students should be), the fact is that it has never been an issue for private providers to operate institutions that focus exclusively (or almost exclusively) on educating international students.

Until now…

A total of 94,500 new international students will be able to enrol in VET next year (and 4,000 of those places will be reserved for providers with CRICOS applications currently under processing – they will get a cap of 30 students each – meaning that the Department of Employment and Workplace Relations is expecting more than 130 new CRICOS VET providers to be approved in 2025)…

The remaining places will be allocated as follows:

• specialist international VET providers (ie those with 80% or more international students) have collectively been given 61,505 new students
• non-specialist providers (ie under 80% of their students are internationals) will get a combined total of 18,953 new commencements
• TAFEs will get 5,482 new commencements, and
• new CRICOS providers which have only recently been registered will be allocated a total of 4,560 new commencements.

It is the first category where we are already starting to see staff laid off and in one case I heard of yesterday, a senior executive admitted to hospital following a nervous breakdown – after their institute was given a cap which is just 15% of their normal student numbers (ie their approved CRICOS capacity).

The reason why the caps are so damaging to VET providers is that in VET ‘new students’ are almost the same as ‘total’ students in any given year because many VET courses are only ~12 months long.

The institution above had only recently taken out a 10 year lease on 4 new floors in the CBD of one of our capital cities and had invested millions in a high class fitout.

This institution is not a ghost college. It’s not an elite university with extensive financial reserves it can draw on – but it is an employer and a tenant in a capital city where landlords are finding it hard to get offices leased.

After receiving their student cap late last week, the next day this institution immediately had to make some of their staff redundant.

This is not a ‘shonk’ operating a ghost college.

It is an entrepreneur offering quality education to genuine students coming to Australia to learn new skills.

Sadly, of course, this institution is not alone…

While private higher education providers typically offer longer programs of study than VET providers, speaking before the Senate Committee hearing into the ESOS legislation in Sydney on Friday, Stephen Nagle from Holmes Institute had the courage to share the following about the impact of the caps on his institution:

Other details that we know, about the impact on private providers include:

ASX-listed Edu Holdings notified the ASX on Tuesday of the impact of the caps on their VET provide, Australian Learning Group. They have been given a cap of 447 new international VET students which is approximately half of the new students they enrolled in 2023 (-51%) and a -57% reduction on total new students enrolled this year. However, because their students typically undertake a two-year program “the decline is likely to be gradual”. Their higher education provider, Ikon Institute, had previously been given a cap for 2025 of 200 new international higher education students (which is down on the 347 new students they enrolled in 2023 and the 784 new commencements YTD in 2024). They noted that they “expected to benefit from their progressive enrolment growth during FY24 and its 3-4 year average study duration for a number of years.”

NextEd Group is another ASX-listed education organisation educating international VET and higher education students. They have a combined CRICOS capacity across their colleges of almost 27,000 students and in February and April 2024 opened new campuses in Adelaide and the Gold Coast. They have been given a cap for their VET operations of 1,139 for 2025 which is down on the 2,078 new commencing international VET students they enrolled in 2023 and the YTD 2,636 in 2024. (They have also advised that the cap for their higher education provider, Academy of Interactive Technology, will be 100 students which is below their 2023 new international student enrolments of 172, but above their YTD 2024 new international students of just 72.)

Other CRICOS VET providers I am aware of have been given the following caps relative to their CRICOS capacity. (Note that I have deliberately not given precise figures to avoid them being identified. It is for them to decide when/if they wish to share the details):

• Cap <40 new students, CRICOS capacity approx. 800 students
• Cap: <200 new students, CRICOS capacity approx. 400 students
• Cap: <400 new students, CRICOS capacity approx. 1,200 students

Against this backdrop I was unsurprised to learn that an online meeting on Monday to discuss the caps attracted more than 250 people, and that providers are exploring the possibility of legal action…

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2025 cap allocations for VET

The initial government announcement stated that out of all the new spaces available to international students under the NPL, the VET sector is to receive 95,000, compared with 145,000 for public universities and 30,000 for other universities and non-university providers.
 
On Friday night last week, individual private VET colleges received letters informing them how many spaces they would receive out of that total VET allowance. Many of those providers will be devastated by their allocations. Some have been informed they can receive less than half the number of new students they welcomed in 2023.

Quality providers see allocations slashed

Many of the providers whose allocations are particularly low are schools that have committed the most to quality assurance and sustainable recruiting and enrolment management. As reported in , one college has been told that its new student allocation would be three spaces, and said: “This makes all our investment in becoming , as well as investing in all the infrastructure and systems in compliance with legal requirements a complete waste of time and resources.”

Closures and job losses are imminent

Troy Williams, the chief executive of the Independent Tertiary Education Council Australia (ITECA), which is the peak body representing independent higher education, vocational education, and skills training providers, said:

“College closures are now inevitable, and ITECA members lay the blame squarely at the feet of Australian Government politicians responsible for international education policy.”

Mr Williams believes up to 300 independent colleges will close and noted: “Their employees will lose their jobs, as will other employees in colleges that will have to scale down to survive …. There is a widespread and chilling belief within the ITECA membership that Australian Government politicians simply do not care about the livelihoods they are destroying.”

Many of the colleges at risk of closing due to the NPL deliver programmes that provide students with the skills most needed by the Australian economy – such as aviation, aged care and healthcare.

The Koala News spoke with several college representatives who made it clear just how drastically their commencements will fall in 2025. One exclaimed: “We had more than 50% domestic students in 2023, and in 2024, we had 350 new commencements in VET Intl. We have been given a cap of 169!”.

Australian Securities Exchange-listed EDU Holdings, which runs ALG vocational schools in Brisbane, Melbourne, and Sydney, received 447 new international student commencements – which amounts to a 51% cut compared with 2023 and about a 57% decline from projected 2024 commencements.

The strong link between commencements and enrolments in the VET sector

Claire Field of Claire Field & Associates (a firm that offers strategic support to Australian institutions across the tertiary education sector), explains why the NPL is so crushing for VET providers:

“The reason why the caps are so damaging to VET providers is that in VET ‘new students’ are almost the same as ‘total’ students in any given year because many VET course are only ~12 months long.”

Ms Field said that the devastation is such that “a senior executive was admitted to hospital following a nervous breakdown – after their institute was given a cap which is just 15% of their normal student numbers (i.e., their approved CRICOS capacity).”

The English-language sector has also been hit

The NPL is not meant to affect the English-language sector (ELICOS), but nevertheless it has because some ELICOS providers also deliver vocational programming.

Ian Aird, CEO of English Australia, wrote on :

“English Australia has already spoken with a number of member colleges who also deliver vocational programmes. For some, these enrolment caps for 2025 are devastating. Right now, our chief concern is the people badly impacted. We are hearing that in some cases the limits are so bad as to mean imminent campus and college closures, significant job losses, and students ejected with nowhere to go. So soon after the COVID border closures caused devastation, after the massive effort to survive and bounce back, we know this will be not just a financial blow. This is emotionally devastating.”

What is to be done?

According to ITECA, “the Australian Government needs to rethink its approach to consider the impact on the sector more completely, restoring an evidence-based approach to policymaking.”

In the meantime, CEO Troy Williams says:

“The most sensible thing to do, given the proximity to the 2025 academic year, would be to delay the commencement of the caps for at least six months. This allows the Australian Government to be transparent in its methodology and develop a sustainable approach that supports quality [Registered Training Organisations] and the people they employ.”

Billions at stake

In 2023, international students contributed AUD$41 billion to the Australian economy. Given that 57% of all international student enrolments in Australia in 2023 were in private VET providers, the combined impact of drastically reduced new student commencements and hundreds of NPL-related institutional closures may remove billions of dollars from the economy going forward.

For additional background, please see:

• “Australia announces cap on student commencements for 2025”
• “Recent policy changes slowing student interest in the UK, Canada, and Australia”
• “What is the cost of policy intended to reduce international student flows?�Ũ�Ĩ&�Բ�����;

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“Subject to the passage of legislation before the Parliament, [the government] will set a National Planning Level (NPL) for new international student commencements of 270,000 for calendar year 2025.”

The NPL – i.e., a cap on new international students coming to Australia – will be allocated across the higher education and vocational education sectors and its aim is to constrain international commencements to pre-pandemic levels. The government says the cap will help to restore the social licence of the industry and ensure that growth is better managed.
 
clarifies what is meant by a “new international student commencement”: “An international student will count as a new overseas student commencement when they are onshore and start their first non-exempt course at their first provider. This includes each time the student changes into a non-exempt course at a different provider.” (Editor’s note: New rules around “visa hopping” mean that there will only be a small number of students who are eligible to change courses.)

Some sub-sectors will be excluded from the NPL:

• Schools
• Higher degree by research programmes
• Standalone English-language providers (ELICOS)
• Non-award programmes

Also excluded from the cap are “Australian Government-sponsored scholars, students that are part of an Australian transnational education arrangement or twinning arrangement, key partner foreign government scholarship holders, and students from the Pacific and Timor-Leste.”

Assuming that the pending legislative amendments are passed by the Australian parliament, the NPL will come into effect in January 2025.

How will the cap be distributed?

Just over half of the new international students anticipated under the cap will enrol in public universities, with 145,000 international commencements in 2025 earmarked for this sub-sector. This overall cap is said to be roughly equivalent to the number of higher education commencements in 2023. However, a government media release explains, “[Individual institutional caps] will be outlined in an International Student Profile (ISP). Publicly funded universities have been provided with their indicative ISPs…In developing ISPs, a number of factors have been considered based on data provided by universities, including recent levels of new international student commencements and the concentration of international enrolments in their onshore student cohorts.”

In other words, individual universities with higher concentrations of foreign students, or that have grown more quickly in recent years, could receive lower cap allocations. While those with lower proportions of international enrolment may receive additional student spaces under the NPL.

A post-announcement analysis from Australian National University Professor elaborates on the cap formula for universities: “The caps have been calculated with 2019 pre-pandemic enrolments at each public university as their base. For universities who increased their enrolments of international students between 2019 and 2023 a formula applies, depending on their ‘international concentration.’ This is based on the percentage of their enrolments in Australian campuses who are international students.

Universities with low concentrations of international students can have all their growth to 2023 included in their 2025 cap. However universities with concentrations above 37% will get to keep only 50% of their growth.

This is likely to affect the more prestigious universities the most. This includes Group of Eight universities, such as the University of Sydney, the University of Melbourne, the University of Queensland and the Australian National University. They will have to cut their commencing student intakes in 2025 compared with 2023 and 2024.”

Outside of the publicly funded universities, about 30,000 of the student spaces available under the cap will be given to other universities and non-university providers and about 95,000 will go to the VET sector. The government adds: “Providers with a higher ratio of international students will receive a lower allocation, encouraging them to diversify their student base.”

In percentage terms, that cap allocation for the VET sector appears to represent a more severe reduction from 2023 levels, whereas the bigger story for higher education is the cap effect of re-allocating those student places from Group of Eight universities to other institutions, as outlined in the cap formula above.

The impact of that model, however, could be severe. Professor Norton adds, “The government has jumped ahead of its legal authority here because the process of recruiting and enrolling international students for next year is already well underway. Education providers need to know how many students they can take…While fairer visa processing will help some education providers increase their enrolments, capping popular universities below student demand won’t necessarily help other universities in Australia.

Few students who want to attend high-prestige universities or want to live in large cities will go to lower prestige or regional universities instead. They just won’t come to Australia.”

What does the cap replace?

Speaking at the AFR Higher Education Summit in Sydney last week, Minister of Education Jason Clare confirmed that the forthcoming NPL will replace Ministerial Directive 107, an immigration framework that classified Australian institutions into different risk levels and offered preferential treatment to “low-risk” institutions. The directive also triggered a significant spike in visa rejection rates for students from some countries.

“Ministerial Direction 107 categorises universities into three different categories and affects the speed at which your visas are processed based on risk,” said Minister Clare at the AFR Summit. “It means that some universities have more students today than they had last year. It means a number of universities have significantly less. It also means that the time it’s taken to process a visa for a university has taken longer in the case of universities that are in that second and third category…A lot of universities have made the point to me that that’s affected their bottom line. It’s affected the way international students see us as a country, if it’s taken a long time to get a visa or they’ve been rejected, and I’ve sought a better way to provide more certainty for them about the number of students they can educate each year and process those visas up to that level quicker.”

In , Universities Australia Chair Professor David Lloyd puts some numbers on that impact, explaining that “visa grants in higher education are down 23% on last year, causing [an] AUD$4.3 billion hit to the economy and putting 14,000 jobs in our sector at risk.”

Prof Lloyd, along with other university and VET leaders, is outraged that the government sees fit to introduce the NPL following the damage inflicted by Directive 107. He writes: “Even without legislated powers to limit international student numbers, the Government has already taken a sledgehammer to the international education sector.”

Prof Lloyd points out what is at stake:

“Every dollar from overseas students is reinvested back into Australia’s universities. Having fewer students here will only widen the funding gap at a time universities need greater support.

There will also be significant flow-on effects for other sectors of the economy that rely heavily on international students.

International students accounted for more than half of Australia’s GDP growth last year, almost singlehandedly saving the nation from recession. The sector is our second biggest export behind mining, worth almost AUD$50 billion to our economy and supporting around 250,000 jobs.”

Group of Eight (Go8) Chief Executive Vicki Thomson , in which she lambastes both the government’s Ministerial Directive 107 and the new NPL cap:

“Today the Federal Government announced that it intends recklessly to proceed with international student caps – introducing cuts to Go8 members who do the heavy lifting in research, education as well as underpinning Australia’s global reputation as a high-quality international education provider.

As such, the Group of Eight (Go8) remains implacably opposed to international student caps for the damage they will do to the sector and the nation.

We saw yesterday at the Senate inquiry that there is no economic modelling on the impact of caps, and this has not changed with today’s announcement of a National Planning Level target of 270,000 for international education. This policy was bad yesterday and it is bad today – the unexplained number gives us no comfort.

What has changed is the Government today trying to steamroll the sector into accepting detailed caps before a clearly sceptical Senate has passed judgement on the ill-conceived legislation that enables these enrolment limits.

In doing so, the Government has confused the issues even further and increased the distrust of the sector in its capability to manage this vital AUD$48 billion export industry.

The Government has essentially responded to one reckless policy folly, Ministerial Direction 107, with another – punishing the Universities that have proven to be the most popular for the very best global students.

Tellingly, the Minister also confirmed that Ministerial Direction 107 has significantly damaged the global reputation of Australia’s international education sector. The introduction of caps will compound this damage.”

reports that The University of Melbourne has received its indicative cap and is studying its financial implications. The university’s vice-chancellor, Professor Duncan Maskell, said: “The cap on international students will have detrimental consequences for our University, the higher education sector generally, and the nation for years to come.”

For additional background, please see:

• “Recent policy changes slowing student interest in the UK, Canada, and Australia”
• “Australia: Peak bodies lobby strongly against pending legislation during Senate hearing”
• “What is the cost of policy intended to reduce international student flows?”

The post Australia announces cap on student commencements for 2025  appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

English-language training sector posts big gains

In total, 59,305 students were enrolled across all sectors from January-August 2023, about half of whom were attending university (27,535, up 15% on 2022). The second largest subsector was schools, up 114% to 12,660, followed by the English-language training sector, which posted massive growth of 347% for a total of 7,000 students.

The strengthening performance of the ELT sector is a positive indicator of future trends for universities and other tertiary-level educators, as many ELT graduates go on to enrol in higher education having achieved a stronger command of the English language.

Numbers were also up by 32% to 6,560 for Te Pūkenga, a centralised establishment specialising in skills and technology training that is in the process of being “disestablished.” It will be replaced with eight to 10 institutions with their own autonomy in the next several months with an aim of better serving the needs of local communities.

Private Training Establishments (PTEs) recorded growth of 13% to 5,670.

Recovery still underway but the trend is positive

Overall, numbers are still down significantly from 2019 when the total foreign enrolment in the country was 115,705, but the trajectory is positive and New Zealand educators are aiming to base their recovery on recruiting from a more diverse mix of student source markets.

Minister Simmonds said:

“Over 59,000 enrolments, in just eight months, confirms that international students continue to find New Zealand an attractive education destination. And for the university sector with 27,535 students enrolled, where a proportion of learners may study for a number of years, there is a solid base of students from which to grow. It is a Government priority to diversify our recruitment efforts for international students with the aim of reaching a broader spectrum of countries.”

Currently, China contributes 36% of enrolments, followed by India (10%), Japan (10%), South Korea (5%), and Thailand (4%).

New Zealand’s position strengthens amid weakening demand for Australia, Canada, and UK

The recovery of New Zealand’s international education sector may be bolstered by policy changes in leading competitor countries Australia, Canada, and UK. New policies in those countries are already causing many international students to reassess their study plans. Nearly half of 2,500 prospective students in 67 countries surveyed by IDP in January 2024 are reconsidering or unsure of their plans to study in the UK, and significant proportions are also hesitating to go to Australia (47%) and Canada (43%).

For additional background, please see:

• “New Zealand: Foreign enrolments climbed steadily through 2023 but full recovery will take years”

The post New Zealand’s international enrolment continued to recover in 2023 appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.