Prospective students are considering the high cost of studying and living abroad in those leading destinations and then they are:

• Looking at rules restricting foreign students’ entry, work rights, and ability to bring their families;
• Comparing what institutions promise about employment outcomes to what current students and alumni say about what is actually happening for them.

When considering each destination individually, they notice that:

• The non-refundable fee for a student visa in Australia keeps ramping up (it is currently AU$2,000), alongside historically high visa rejection rates.
• The UK’s Graduate Route post-study work term is being cut from 24 months to 18 months in 2027.
• Post-study work streams in the US are under review by policy makers.
• Canada’s international student cap remains in place, alongside more restrictive policies for post-graduation work eligibility, and declining visa approval rates.

At the same time, labour markets in the Big Four are being disrupted by geo-political factors and the impact of new technologies. The youth unemployment rate is currently higher in Canada than it was just after the pandemic, and it is the highest it has been in a decade in the UK – trends that contribute to a more uncertain employment outlook for domestic and foreign graduates alike.

“Post-study work is obviously a key driver for a significant part of the prospective student audience,” says Dr Mark Bennett, Vice President of Research and Insight at Keystone Education Group. “But that doesn’t mean it’s their ‘default’ option post-graduation. Rather, it’s one of many opportunities that enhances the value and attractiveness of an international degree. Trusting that the door is there in advance matters whether or not someone chooses to walk through it later.”

Measuring student sentiment

Recent survey research and social media listening studies confirm that international prospects are more skeptical about the ROI of study abroad in a Big Four destination.

Looking just at the UK, for example:

• New research found that 34% of international students are less interested in UK study as a result of the imminent shortening of the Graduate Route (and half of the sample didn’t know about the policy change, indicating that demand might fall still further).

• Student visa applications to the UK in the first three months of 2026 were down -31% compared with the same period in 2025.

• A newly released study by , an AI-powered social media listening platform purpose-built for international education, found that across various social channels there is vigorous conversation about the pros and cons of studying in the UK among current and prospective international students. Anxiety and disappointment are common themes in those online conversations across tens of thousands of student comments throughout 2025. So too is a sense of being valued primarily for paying higher tuition fees than domestic students.

Here are just a couple of quotes featured in the Voyage study:

“The government introduces policies every year, which further deters international students, such as the graduate visa restrictions, not allowing dependents, etc. The new visa restrictions pretty much killed any chance of working in the UK. If you’re looking for a degree from well-regarded institutions, that’s great. If you’re looking to get a job afterwards, just know that your options are extremely, extremely limited and recent law changes have pretty much made it impossible.”

“The immigration policies are made to be as prohibitive as possible. After milking you with insane tuition fees and living expenses while providing you with no jobs, the UK wants you to spend around 3,000 pounds on a graduate visa. This will allow you to stay for 2 years. Will you find jobs on a graduate visa? You have a better chance than the impossible student visa, but it is still hard.”

Overall, the conversations picked up by Voyage include a notable level of concern about UK government policies that limit work rights while tuition fees remain much higher for international students.

A new urgency around career services

In the face of restrictive government policies, it is crucial for institutions to demonstrate their continued value to international students.

This means proving – not just promising – that they are committed to international students’ post-study success. An excellent way of achieving this is (1) customising career services for the unique needs of international students and (2) effectively communicating the value of this function to them.

Recent research shows that this isn’t happening enough as yet. A 2024 QS and Universities UK International study, which surveyed 10,000 international graduates from nearly 40 universities, found that only 3% of employed graduates had found their job with the help of career services. About a fifth had used career services for other reasons, but not for job-finding.

The research highlights a gap between the availability of career services and the relevance of this function in the eyes of international students.

Recognising that international students have more barriers to securing a job than domestic students do can help to close this gap. For those students, career services must go beyond resume coaching, interview prep, etc. They need to cover other critical areas, including:

• Working through complicated visa and immigration processes.
• Being aware of programmes linked to skills gaps (that are thus prioritised by governments and employers).
• Knowing which programmes are eligible for post-study work streams.
• Avoiding being penalised simply because of not being aware of a deadline or requirement.
• Building professional networks both in their host destination and elsewhere, because:
  • There is not a guarantee they will be able to work in the host country after studies due to policies or other factors.
  • They may not want to stay in the host country and be perfectly content to find a good job at home or in another country.
• Identifying employers who are open to hiring/sponsoring international students.

Embedding career and immigration supports

Sanam Arora is the chair of the National Indian Students and Alumni Union (NISAU) in the UK. At the 2025 ���Ϲ��� Monitor Global Summit in London, she explained:

“Seventy percent of Indians choose a destination of study on the basis of overall employability, and they have historically seen the UK or US in particular as a launchpad for global careers. In that sense, the definition of what it means to be educated has fundamentally changed. Universities that realise they’re not just here to educate, they’re here to be that global talent launchpad, will really ace this going forward.”

Ms Arora shared her own perspective on what she would find helpful:

“Before I graduate, I want the university to help me prepare for a successful life. That is what I think of when I think of career services, because success in a career is not that different than success in life. Sometimes career services is seen as something that is off to the side or in a corner, but really it needs to be embedded end-to-end throughout the entire student life cycle.”

Embedding career services means considering the whole student journey – from pre-admission to post-graduation. It means offering help to students not only in choosing the right programme, but also in understanding immigration rules and post-study pathways. Supporting students through those immigration processes is in fact an integral part of career services today, especially in the wake of heightened government oversight and compliance requirements.

Carleton University in Ottawa, Canada, has department whose name fits the bill for what is needed in our current context: the . That office combines employment research with immigration guidance, and it is open to all international students.

A wider lens for networking

Another important angle today is to recognise that fewer international students will be able to stay on to work because of new immigration policies – and some will naturally prefer to pursue careers in their home country or in a third country in any case. This puts the onus on institutions to connect students to global networking platforms and to career fairs with international employers.

Collecting data on students from the very beginning of their enrolment about their post-study plans enables the customisation of career services not just on the basis of international versus domestic, but also international “planning to stay” and international “planning to return home or work elsewhere.”

Integral to brand reputation

There is a growing urgency to backing up the promise of employability with real outcomes for students. Helping international students to achieve the ROI they expect is ever-more integral to brand integrity and equity, to student satisfaction, and to the ability to recruit successfully in overseas markets.

For additional background, please see:

• “Survey highlights a growing ‘engagement gap’ between international student expectations and institutional response”
• “Is a university degree still the same passport to success?”
• “What students want: The top decision factors for study abroad”

The post A common challenge: Strengthening student confidence in the ROI of study abroad appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

The report continues Shorelight’s commitment, which began in 2023 in partnership with the Presidents’ Alliance on Higher Education and Immigration, to acquiring and analysing F-1 visa denial data. It is based on annual data obtained via a public information request to the US Department of State.

Refusals higher than in the pandemic

More than a third of all F-1 visas (35%) were refused in 2025, up from 31% in 2024 and 23% in 2015

The extremes on either point of this average are sharp. For Europe, the refusal rate is 9%. For Africa and Asia, it is 64% and 41%, respectively. The chart below shows the persistently low rate of rejection over 10 years for European students compared with students from elsewhere in the world.

Surging rejection rates for African students

In 2015, more than half of African applicants had their F-1 visa application approved. In 2025, nearly two-thirds were rejected. Over 10 years, refusals for African applicants have risen by 33%.

Students from some African countries are especially likely to be denied, with at least 80% of applicants from Sierra Leone, Somalia, Benin, and Burkina Faso turned away last year.

A record-high refusal rate also applied to applications from Ghana: 81% in 2025 versus 72% in 2024. Ghana – one of the safest and most stable countries in West Africa – has been a very important emerging market for US institutions in recent years. In 2024/25, according to the IIE’s Open Doors data, there were 12,825 Ghanaian students in the US, a +36.5% rise over the previous year. This was an even higher rate of growth than that from Nigeria (+9.1%), which has been the top African sender of students to the US for several years.

In 2024/25, there were 21,850 Nigerian students in US higher education, but next year will tell a different story: Nigeria is on the Trump administration’s travel ban list. This means that Nigerian students currently cannot even apply to the US, let alone have a shot of being approved for a visa. In addition, Nigerian students in the US hoping to switch to Optional Practical Training (OPT) aren’t currently able to, as the immigration department has placed an indefinite hold on their applications. This means they cannot work after finishing their studies.

Keystone Education Group reports that “Nigerian student search interest in the USA has dropped more than -50% since the visa processing freeze announcement on 17 December 2025.” Keystone found that Nigerian interest is shifting mainly to France (+40%), Italy (+33%), Australia (+21), and China (+17%).

Refusals now common for South Asian students

Like African students, South Asian students are increasingly aware that simply being from their country means they are less likely to receive an F-1 visa than students from other regions. Indian students – who compose the largest segment of the international student body in the US – are no exception. The rejection rate for Indian students rose from 53% in 2024 to 61% in 2025.

As a source market, India has been growing over time – up +10% in 2024/25 after an expansion of +23% in 2023/24, but this trend is now reversing.

Similarly, visa denials for Nepali students rose from 59% in 2024 to 81% in 2025. Last year, Nepal was the sixth largest origin market for US institutions, growing by +48% in 2024/25 over 2023/24 – the most significant jump of any top 20 market for the US.

Students from Bangladesh and Pakistan are also much more likely to be refused than approved for an F-1 visa (73% and 71% rejection rate, respectively), and this trend has intensified over the past year.

European students fare much better

Over 9 in 10 European students were approved for an F-1 visa in 2025.

The problem is that European countries contain a relatively small recruitment pool. For example, though six European countries – the UK, Türkiye, Spain, Germany, France, and Italy – are top-20 source countries for US colleges, they collectively compose less than 6% of international enrolments. In addition, they are not high-growth markets (see chart below); they will not offset declining enrolments from Africa and Asia.

Lower Indian demand has profound implications for the US economy

Indians represent 30% of all foreign enrolments in the US, and they are mostly in graduate programmes. But last year, Indian graduate enrolments fell by -9.5% – a serious decline made even starker because it followed +18.5% growth the previous year.

If Indian demand declines further because of high visa refusal rates or restrictions on the OPT and H-1B work streams, there will be profound domino effects. Consider:

• Indian students contribute over 70% of enrolments in master’s and PhD-level STEM (science, technology, engineering, and math) programmes.
• Nearly half of STEM-OPT participants are Indian.
• Close to 75% of all H-1B work visas are awarded to Indians, mainly for positions in the tech sector.
• Nearly a quarter (23%) of tech workers in Silicon Valley with a bachelor’s degree or higher are Indian-born (including the current CEOs of Google, Microsoft, and IBM).
• Indian-born doctors are the largest segment of immigrant doctors in the US.

The explains what could happen if Indian students choose to go elsewhere to study and work in STEM fields:

“The broader impact on the US could be severe: hospitals facing doctor shortages, universities struggling to attract STEM students, and start-ups without the lobbying muscle of Google or Amazon are likely to be hit hardest.”

The future impact of structural bias in F-1 visa processing

The Shorelight report concludes:

“With student visa refusals in India climbing up to 60%, we’re not just denying students, we’re cutting off a critical talent pipeline for US universities, employers, and the economy. Without expanding opportunities in other high-growth regions, we’re creating a self-inflicted talent shortage. In a global race for skilled workers, the US cannot afford to turn away the very students who fuel our research, workforce, and competitiveness.”

Asked by Inside Higher Ed to comment on Shorelight’s determination that visa approvals are more determined by applicants’ home countries than by merit, the US State Department said: “All visa applications are reviewed on a case-by-case basis, in accordance with US law, and adjudicated based on the facts and circumstances of the individual case.”

Shorelight’s recommendations

Within the Shorelight report are “evidence-based solutions to address this challenge [of structural bias in F-1 visa processing],” including a call for “greater transparency in denials, standardised financial guidance, specialised training for high-refusal consulates, dual-intent for F-1 visas, and codifying OPT.” The full report .

For additional background, please see:


• “US: Student visa issuances fell by -36% in summer 2025; OPT uncertainty among factors affecting international student demand”
• “Australia: Student visa refusal rates reach record high amid weakening demand from China”

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Some of these changes are in effect immediately; some are still pending.

What has already changed?

As of 1 April 2026, international students no longer need a separate co-op work permit that are part of their post-secondary programme in Canada. This change applies to work-integrated learning components within the student’s programme of study, including co-op placements, internships, practicums, and mentorships.

This is a significant departure from the previous practice where students pursing any such work-integrated learning placement were obliged to obtain a separate co-op work permit in addition to their study permit.

Commenting on the change on LinkedIn, Ankita Goyal, an adjunct professor of immigration law at Queen’s University, said, “Removing the need for a co-op work permit means students won’t be stuck waiting to start their placements—something that has historically caused delays, stress, and even lost opportunities.”

“This change simplifies the administrative process for students by requiring only one permit to complete a single study programme,” adds a statement from IRCC. “It does not increase the number of students who are authorised to work or affect temporary resident volumes; it simply removes an administrative step that is no longer necessary.”

In order to be eligible to carry out any such work-integrated learning with only a study permit, the work placement must be a requirement of the study programme. The updated IRCC guidance says that eligible students must meet all of the following conditions:

• “You have conditions printed on your initial study permit that say you’re allowed to work on campus.
• You have a letter from your DLI [Designated Learning Institution] that confirms the work placement is a requirement of your study program.
• You have a valid study permit or you applied to extend your study permit before it expired.
• You’re a full-time student at a DLI.
• Your study programme is at least 6 months long, at a post-secondary level and leads to a degree, diploma or certificate.
• The work placement of your study programme totals 50% or less of your study programme.”

Further easing ahead?

In addition to those immediate changes around co-op of other work placements, IRCC has also proposed to rules around post-graduation work permits (PGWP).

Most notable among these is a proposal, for which consultations will be ongoing for the next month or two, that would allow international students to work without a work permit in cases where:

• An international student is waiting for a decision on a study permit extension; and
• An international graduate is awaiting a decision on an application for a post-graduation work permit (PGWP).

“When international students finish their programme, they can apply for a PGWP. However, there’s a gap between graduating and receiving the PGWP,” says a related report on . “Currently, gaps between permit expiry and approval of a new permit can leave students and graduates in limbo, and unsure about their ability to work, even though current regulations do allow graduates to begin work before receiving their work permit.”

The process and timeline for implementation of any new rules around PGWPs is not yet clear, but the current proposals reflect the government’s stated intention to streamline and Canada’s immigration system, and so seem likely to proceed in some form.

For additional background, please see:

• “Canada: Government audit finds impact of international student cap far greater than expected“
• “Canada’s foreign enrolment has fallen by nearly 300,000 students over the last two years“
• “Canada: A case study of immigration policy impacts on postsecondary institutions and the wider economy“

The post Canadian immigration officials move to ease rules around student work permits appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

A new resource from immigration law firm Fragomen called “” offers helpful guidance on what international students should consider when applying to a US institution, changing visa status, or leaving the US while on a visa or during a visa transition period (e.g., from an F-1 to OPT, or OPT to H-1B).

In brief, Fragomen emphasises that this is a very risky time for international students to leave the US because of a real chance that they might not be permitted re-entry.

In today’s article, we feature ��������dz����’s advice, and we also provide an update on the broader immigration landscape in terms of its implications for international students, higher education institutions, and employers. In particular, we look at why proposed changes to Optional Practical Training (OPT) and study duration limits – as well as new H-1B rules – pose challenges for US colleges’ international recruitment.

The golden pathway

The majority of international students in the US (57%) are in STEM fields: science, technology, engineering, and math. Many of them choose their academic focus to become eligible for the programme called STEM OPT (STEM Optional Practical Training), which:

• Allows international students to work in the US for up to three years (rather than the one-year term permitted for regular OPT participants).


  
• Gives them three chances to be selected through the H-1B work visa lottery system (a significant feature because of the extremely high demand for the limited number of H-1Bs granted each year). The H-1B visa, where applicants are sponsored by US employers, is valid for three years with a possible three-year extension.

In many cases, the pathway envisioned by many international prospects applying to a US university is this: Enrol in a STEM academic programme on an F-1 visa > participate in STEM OPT > apply up to three times for an H-1B visa that allows up to six years of work in the US > potentially progress to permanent residency from there.

The opportunity to pursue this pathway is central to the decision-making of most prospects considering study in the US. A 2025 survey conducted by NAFSA and the found that 54% of current international students would not have chosen the US if there was no OPT option. Another survey, the , found that 92% of US higher institutions believe that international students would choose another destination if OPT were eliminated.

Those survey findings underscore the impact of the OPT programme on an international student’s overall return on investment (ROI) for study in the US. Simply put, participating in OPT helps students to offset the high cost of a US degree, which might otherwise be prohibitive.

The pathway is under pressure

The importance of OPT to US colleges’ international enrolments highlights the massive impact that several recent proposals or rule changes by the Department of Homeland Security may have on institutions’ ability to recruit overseas. These include:

• A proposal to restrict or end the OPT programme. This proposal is currently under review. 

  
• A presidential proclamation requiring an employer to pay a US$100,000 fee for an H‑1B application filed from outside the US after 21 September 2025. This fee is now in place despite multiple legal challenges, some of which are still proceeding through the courts.


  
• A proposal to impose a fixed period limiting international students’ study visa to no more than four years. This would replace the current Duration of Stay (D/S) system that allows students to remain in the US as long as they are progressing in their academic programmes. A fixed admission period would require students to apply for extensions that they wouldn’t automatically receive. If an extension were denied, a student would be required to leave the US immediately, with no chance at OPT. This proposal is under review. Almost half (49%) of current students responding to the 2025 NAFSA/ Institute for Progress survey said they would not have enrolled in the first place had Duration of Status been replaced with a fixed period of admission.

Heightened scrutiny for international students

At the core of the current US immigration strategy is the administration’s belief that international students and workers could be a threat and even to national security.

As a result, the administration has shown that it is willing to use various policy levers to make it more difficult for international students to come to the US, and/or to stay after graduation. 

For the many international students who want to safeguard their ability to study, work, and potentially immigrate to the US, deciding to leave the country for travel can be risky. Re-entering means dealing with US immigration officers again at a time when the State Department is increasing refusals of visas for . It can be very difficult for students to challenge refusals from abroad – and for institutions to help them.

Several universities – with the help of legal experts – are counselling their international students to stay in the US for this reason. ��������dz����’s resource delves deeply into the risks for particular kinds of students based on their visa status or intended visa progression:

“International students are facing significantly heightened scrutiny, which could affect their status, ability to change status, and ability to re-enter the United States after international travel…F-1 students who have applied for, or are working on, post-completion optional practical training (OPT) or may be the beneficiary of an H-1B cap petition and a request to change status should be aware of the requirements and risks of travelling internationally.”

Fragomen adds: “This is true whether you are in an ongoing course of study, your 60-day grace period, a period of OPT (including a STEM extension), or in the ‘cap gap’ – the period between the end of your course of study or OPT and either the date a timely-filed H-1B change of status on your behalf will take effect, or April 1 (whichever is earlier).”

��������dz����’s guidance goes into to describe best practices for specific types of international students in different visa classes or circumstances.

The destabilising effect

Naavya Shetty, an Indian student finishing up her degree at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, spoke with in October 2025:

“What we [international students] felt would happen was that all these companies would develop a sense of uncertainty about hiring international students. Because who knows when a new law is going to pass that makes them have to pay a lot more for us than we might actually be ‘worth.’”

Ms Shetty explained: “In order to come here, I had to take a student loan, with a particularly high rate of interest. My parents had to mortgage our house in order for me to be able to take that loan. If I do not manage to get a job, there is quite a lot of burden on me and my family financially. The average graduate student salary [in the US] for my field is estimated to be about 100K, whereas in India, the estimated cost is around 15 to 20 lakhs – equivalent to roughly $17,000 a year.”

Keep the facts in focus

The confusing narrative around the US$100,000 H-1B application fee is daunting for employers who may not understand which applicants are affected and which are not. In fact, the fee (as of this writing) applies only to new H-1B applicants outside the US. F-1 students are exempted if they secure a job right after finishing school, which means there is no added cost for US employers wanting to hire them.

What’s more, the new rules could actually benefit F-1 international students. Employers who know about the exemption could pivot to hiring an international student graduate instead of a skilled worker outside of the US, since this would allow them to avoid the US$100,000 fee.

Law firm notes:

“[The new rules] create a sharp strategic divide. US‑based international graduates become far more attractive candidates, while employers may be reluctant to sponsor workers abroad due to the substantial additional cost …

The H-1B program is evolving into a higher cost, higher skill pathway. Employers prepared to invest in top tier talent will remain active participants, while others may pivot to alternative visa strategies or focus on international graduates already in the United States.”

The need for legal advice

��������dz����’s offers exactly the kind of counsel that can seem very elusive for students and institutions alike at this time.

For additional background, please see:

• “US suspends immigration processing for nationals from 39 travel ban countries – but F, J, and M visa processing will continue”
• “US: Student visa issuances fell by -36% in summer 2025; OPT uncertainty among factors affecting international student demand”&�Բ�����;

The post What international students need to know about study and work visas in the United States appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

New Zealand’s international education strategy favours managed growth over the next few years. The plan is to grow student enrolments from 83,400 in 2024 to 105,000 in 2027 and 119,000 by 2034. Between January and August of 2025, New Zealand institutions hosted 85,535 international students (+14% over the same period in 2024). This number was already higher than the full-year total in 2024, and all sub-sectors experienced growth.

Generous work rights are part of New Zealand’s strategy to increase its attractiveness to international students.

New work visa: The Short Term Graduate Work Visa

The Short Term Graduate Work Visa is for students who are not eligible for the Post Study Work Visa. It will provide 6 months of open work rights, “allowing time to look for work and, where appropriate, transition to an Accredited Employer Work Visa.”

To be eligible, applicants must hold a qualification at NZQCF at level 5–7 (i.e., certificate/diploma to bachelor’s degree) that was studied full time for at least 24 weeks in New Zealand and that does not make them eligible for a Post Study Work Visa. That qualification cannot have been an English language, foundation, or bridging qualification.

Short Term Graduate Work Visa holders will not be able to support family for a work or dependent child student visa. However, says New Zealand Immigration:

“They can check if they are able to support them for a visitor visa instead. Dependent children can also apply for a student visa as international students, and partners can apply for work visas on their own merit.”

For more on the visa and eligibility requirements, please visit this New Zealand Immigration .

Extended eligibility: Post Study Work Visa

The Post Study Work Visa allows holders to work in New Zealand for up to three years, depending on their qualification. Currently, it is eligible to students who have graduated with an NZQCF Level 7 bachelor’s degree taken full-time at a New Zealand institution but not to those who have earned a Level 7 NZQCF graduate diploma. This will change in late 2026.

Along with , applicants with the NZQCF graduate diploma will need to have completed a bachelor’s degree in New Zealand or elsewhere to be eligible for the Post Study Work Visa.

Post Study Work Visa holders are permitted to support partners and dependent children for visitor, work, or dependent child student visas, as long as requirements are met.

Education exports are growing

The “” strategy aims to double the economic impact of the international education in New Zealand over the next decade from NZD$3.6 billion in 2024 to NZD$7.2 billion by 2034.

Stats NZ data show that education-related travel exports reached NZD$4.5 billion in 2025 (up to September).

For additional background, please see:

• “What students want: The top decision factors for study abroad“
• “New Zealand announces strong foreign enrolment growth along with a new international education strategy”��
• “New Zealand’s international student numbers climbing amid strong public support“

The post New Zealand expands post-study work opportunities for international students appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

“DHS has indicated it intends to re-evaluate practical training regulatory requirements for foreign student visa holders through a rulemaking,” said the Secretary. “The rule would propose to amend existing practical training regulations to protect US workers from being displaced by foreign nationals, address fraud and national security concerns, and enhance the Student and Exchange Visitor Program’s capacity to oversee the program.”

The momentum for a rule change stems from a belief in some circles that the current OPT framework takes jobs from US workers, among other assertions. ()

Recent F-1 visa data suggests that OPT’s possible termination is already having an effect on international student demand for study in the US – especially in some of the most important overseas markets for US institutions.

A strategic pillar of US recruitment

The OPT programme is increasingly popular – especially because STEM students can receive a total of three years of work due to their specialisation (regular OPT allows for only one year). Participation in the compared with the previous year.

According Mirka Martel, the Institute of International Education’s (IIE) head of research, OPT is an “essential component of an international student’s academic experience” (which is why the organisation includes OPT numbers in its annual on international student numbers in the US). Keystone Education Group research suggests that OPT may be the The firm found that 86% of international prospects consider staying in the US and working after graduation.

Visas plummet -36%

Leading up to the 2025/26 intake for US institutions, a series of events disrupted international student recruitment. The Trump administration suspended visa interviews at US consulates in May 2025, which lasted for almost a month; revoked thousands of student visas; and it warned of upcoming policies to curb the duration of student visas and post-study rights for international students. In the key summer recruiting window, President Trump also revived the travel ban preventing nationals of some countries from entering the US (and then extended it in December 2025 to 39 countries).

Alongside those events, F-1 visas plunged by -36% between May and August of 2025, according to a analysis of data.

The top market for US institutions – India – decreased much more sharply than the average: about -60%, which equates to only 22,870 new F-1 visas awarded to Indian students in those summer months. In July and August alone, the drop was nearly -80%.

Why STEM OPT is so important to international students

Of all the disruptive factors spurring the visa declines, uncertainty around the OPT programme – especially STEM OPT – could have the most significant long-term impact on international student demand – particularly in price-sensitive student markets.

The importance of STEM OPT for the families of thousands of international students can be summed up in three letters: ROI (return on investment).

This is because:

• STEM OPT participants (this is not a rule for general OPT).
  
• This means that at least two of the three years of work that STEM OPT participants engage in are paid.
  
• The three-year term of STEM OPT gives participants three chances to enter the H-1B visa lottery (one per year) – versus one chance offered by a one-year OPT term.
  
• The H-1B visa, which allows US employers to temporarily hire foreign workers for specialty occupations (mostly in STEM), is valid for three years with a possible three-year extension. Those who receive an H-1B have a better chance to become permanent residents because they gain work experience that counts towards eligibility.

STEM OPT participants’ paid work in a specialised STEM field allows them to offset the cost of their degree. The potential ROI increases even further because STEM OPT students have a better chance of receiving an H-1B visa than other students given the multiple times they can enter the lottery.

As Keystone Education Group “The calculation is straightforward: three years of US work experience can be transformative for career trajectories and provides multiple opportunities to secure H-1B sponsorship.”

What is at stake

The following data – which shows the link between international students’ demand for STEM studies in the US and the availability of OPT – foreshadows how devastating a restriction or termination of this post-study work stream could be for US universities and colleges :

• Previous research has found that in the US use their OPT work benefit.

• In 2024/25, of all international students in the US were pursuing STEM degrees, rising to 64% at the graduate level. This means that more than half of all international students in the US are eligible for STEM OPT.

• Indian students, who compose 31% of all international students in US universities and colleges, are overrepresented in STEM fields. Indians also make up nearly half (48%) of all students in the OPT STEM stream. Chinese students, who make up the next largest share of international students in the US, are the second largest nationality in STEM OPT: 21%. Without STEM OPT, the idea of paying for a STEM degree in the US would hold less appeal for Indian and Chinese students, especially given cuts to major research programmes by the Trump administration.

• Vietnam, Nepal, and Nigeria are some of the fastest-growing international student groups in the US (growing +49%, +16%, and +9%, respectively, in 2024/25 compared with 2023/24). They are also the among . US institutions are increasingly reliant on these markets as a counter to over-reliance on China and India.

What is already happening

In our own analysis of , we found that India is but one of many student source markets for which F-1 visa issuances are tanking. In July and August of 2025, F-1 visa grants fell by -78% for India, -33% for China, -17% for Vietnam, -83% for Nepal, and -63% for Nigeria. As noted earlier, international students from these countries account for a large share of STEM OPT participants.

OPT = ROI

In July of 2025, the offered a succinct analysis of what the removal of OPT would mean for Indian students:

“Let’s be clear—it will hurt Indian students. OPT is their runway to repay loans, gain experience, and build global careers. Estimates suggest that the average Indian student spends $60,000–$100,000 on a US STEM degree. Without OPT, the ROI vanishes.”

The Times continued: “Without OPT, US universities become overpriced diplomas without job prospects. Why would anyone pay $100,000 for a degree that ends in deportation? NAFSA estimates international students (led by Indians) contribute $33 billion to the US economy. Kill OPT, and watch that cash vanish.”

Effects on domestic students, institutions, and workers

The bulk of international students in the US pay tuition fees that are two to three times higher than domestic fees – and those fees are essential for many institutions to keep STEM programmes running and research facilities competitive with those in Europe and Asia. Remembering that international students make up 54% of US master’s enrolments and 44% of doctoral enrolments in STEM fields, and that OPT is a major reason for those high proportions, the declines we would see if OPT were actually removed would be even more drastic than what happened in the summer of 2025. All students would feel the impact.

The end of STEM OPT would also severely disrupt the hiring ability of major tech companies and scientific organisations in the US, making it more difficult for them to maintain innovation levels. A recent featured Madeline Zavodny, an economics professor at the University of North Florida, who examined nearly a decade of data on Optional Practical Training. She concluded:

“The results indicate that the OPT program does not reduce job opportunities for American workers in STEM fields … a larger number of foreign students approved for OPT, relative to the number of U.S. workers, is associated with a lower unemployment rate among those U.S. workers.”

Longer-term impacts

an October 2025 working paper by researchers Michael Clemens, Jeremy Neufeld, and Amy Nice, analysed different scenarios that could play out according to specific levels of decline in the number of international STEM graduates in the US. According to the “plausible” scenario of a one-third reduction in US-trained foreign graduates:

“There would be 6 to 11 percent fewer high-skill STEM workers in the U.S. workforce overall (including both foreign-born and domestic STEM workers). The best available economic research implies that, within ten years, this one-third decline in foreign STEM graduates from U.S. universities would lead to long-run GDP losses of $240 to $481 billion each year.”

For additional background, please see:

• “US proposes new rules for student visas including term limits and other restrictions“
• “US: Study estimates that changes to international student policies could reduce GDP by up to US$481 billion per year“
• “There were more international students in the US than ever in 2024/25 but commencements are declining“
• “Canada and the US are losing international student enrolments to Europe and Asia” 

The post US: Student visa issuances fell by -36% in summer 2025; OPT uncertainty among factors affecting international student demand appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

As a result, the government is pursuing international research collaborations, opening branch campuses, and establishing joint programmes with foreign institutions as much as it is trying to attract more students to study in China. A new goal is to see 8 million Chinese students enrolled in transnational education programmes (TNE); the current number is 800,000. No timeline has been specified, but China tends to achieve targets with exceptional speed.

China’s attraction for international students

The number of Chinese universities placing in ranking systems such as Times Higher Education (THE), QS, and Shanghai (also known as the Academic Ranking of World Universities, or ARWU) continues to rise. In 2025, 108 Chinese institutions made ARWU’s top 500, just behind the 111 American institutions in that tier. This was a +10% year-over-year rise for China, compared to +2% for the US. Over the past decade, the pattern is even more striking, as shown in the following chart from Higher Education Strategy Associates. In this chart showing the changed position of 9 countries over 10 years, only Australia joined China in improved performance over time, and that was minimal. The US was the country with the greatest contraction in the ARWU rankings from 2015–25.

There is a similar 10-year contrast between the number of Chinese and US institutions placing in the top 500 on : China is way up with fewer US institutions ranked.

Ascent up the rankings is a major draw for international students considering China for study abroad, but there are also other benefits. Among them are ample scholarships offered by the Chinese government (especially at the postgraduate level) as well as relatively low tuition fees and costs of living. At the 2024 Forum on China-Africa Cooperation Summit, for example, China announced 60,000 new scholarships for African students.

What’s more, for students from over 100 Belt and Road (BRI) countries, the presence of Chinese companies in their home region offers opportunities for post-study employment. Over the past decade, Chinese companies have created millions of jobs in Africa, and China is the continent’s top trading partner.

The extensive range of the Belt and Road initiative – stretching across Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America and the Caribbean – has also fuelled the diversity of nationalities on Chinese campuses. : “No one nationality is over-represented among China’s international cohorts – an aim many institutions globally are attempting to replicate.”

QS expects international enrolments in China to increase by +2.5% annually till 2030 to about 550,000 – a lower growth rate than European countries as well as New Zealand, Malaysia, South Korea, and Vietnam, but a greater expansion than in the US, Australia, and Canada. Any growth will be thanks in no small part to China’s growing supply of English-taught programmes (ETPs). There are now as many ETPs in China as in many leading European destinations (close to 3,000), especially in STEM programmes and at the postgraduate level.

Language and cultural barriers an issue

The diversity of international students in Chinese universities is impressive, but QS notes that there is a downside: “[It] cushions against single-market volatility but also complicates recruitment strategies and programme design.” With top nationalities including Thailand, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, and Russia – and growing numbers of African students – it is not a simple task to support all students in terms of language and cultural integration.

Integration can also be complicated because international students are often housed in separate, more well-equipped student residences than domestic students – another point of tension for Chinese families. Vietnamese study abroad consultancy notes:

“Rooms are usually more spacious, fully equipped with private bathrooms/showers, air conditioning, mini-fridges, and even balconies. Compared to dormitories for Chinese students (often 4-6 person rooms, shared bathrooms, no or limited air conditioning), the conditions for international students are clearly prioritised.”

Growing resistance to inbound student mobility

Continuing a pattern that can be observed in other major study destinations, there is mounting frustration among some segments of the Chinese public about growing numbers of foreign students in in the country, especially against a backdrop of persistently high youth unemployment rates.

That frustration is in large part driven by intense competition for well-paid jobs in the country. In published by the University of Oxford, authors Wen Wen and Die Hu pointed out that:

“China is a non-immigrant nation with a surplus of domestic college graduates … its ability to absorb foreign graduates into the labour force is low and the legal limitations for foreign students to stay are valid.”

Since that paper’s publication, China launched the K Visa in 2025 in a bid to attract more STEM researchers to the country. Those eligible for the K Visa do not need a job offer from a Chinese employer, and the visa offers considerably more flexibility regarding entry frequency, validity period, and duration of stay than other Chinese visas.

The K Visa was launched the same year that China’s graduating class numbered 12.2 million, up more than +4% over 2024 and the largest increase ever. When the new visa was announced, voicing upset, some of them xenophobic. Canada’s newspaper interviewed Zheng Yifan, a 33-year-old tech worker from Chengdu, who said:

“I feel this visa doesn’t sound wise, and many in my industry share similar views. This whole thing leaves a bitter taste in the mouths of people like me who have climbed the ladder through sheer effort. China doesn’t lack talented people – we just lack job opportunities and resources.”

Similarly, Jakky Yang, a 27-year-old investment adviser in Shenzhen, said: “The fundamental reason many people like me oppose this visa is because our own domestic needs still need to be addressed. Many people in China are caught in a cutthroat competition, struggling to survive, while foreigners can easily access the benefits we have to fight so hard for.”

“Pretending to work”

If anything suggests just how dire many Chinese youth feel about their job prospects, it is the “pretending to work” phenomenon, which dovetails with the “lying flat” trend. Essentially:

• “Lying flat” describes Chinese youth who have simply stopped looking for jobs due to dismay over limited opportunities, choosing instead to stay at home, adopt a minimalist lifestyle, and sometimes be paid to take care of ageing parents or household chores.

• “Pretending to work” is a nationwide trend in which jobless young people pay a company for office space. One example is the aptly branded Pretend To Work Company in Dongguan, which asks for US$5 a day in return for access to an equipped office where clients socialise and/or conduct job searches. In 2025, the interviewed Pretend To Work Company clients, who reported feeling less alone and less pressured by anxious parents in their rented office space.

Both “lying flat” and “pretending to work” are stark illustrations of the tension between the needs of the Chinese economy and the needs of Chinese students and workers facing barriers to landing good jobs in that economy.

Students returning in greater numbers

The situation becomes even more complicated because of the huge numbers of foreign-educated Chinese students returning home. About 495,000 students returned after studying abroad in 2024, nearly 20% more than in 2025, according to the Chinese Ministry of Education. The influx is partly fuelled by unfavourable visa and political climates in some host countries. The numbers have become so large that the government has set up an online job search and start-up assistance platform just for returnees. It has done so in partnership with 50 organisations to add a talent-matching component to the service – particularly in the fields of AI and advanced materials.

As with international students, there is some resentment around the influx, as domestic students and workers worry returnees will take all the most desirable jobs. The reality is more complicated.

Ba Ran, a vice president at the online recruiting firm Liepin Group, told China’s that the swell of returnees has reduced the scarcity premium of a foreign degree. He noted: “The rise of Chinese tech giants has created a demand for locally trained talent with a strong grasp of the domestic market, an area where freshly returned graduates can be at a disadvantage.” Over the past seven years, recruitment platform Zhaopin has seen a drop in Chinese job listings asking for overseas-educated talent.

While returnees with highly specialised STEM skills continue to fare well in the labour market, those with less remarkable credentials are commanding lower salaries in the past. Ba Ran says that HR departments “are no longer dazzled by an overseas degree … now they are more focused on concrete skills and a willingness to work diligently.”

Beyond inbound

Clearly, and as in so many other countries, there are limits to how many international students and researchers China can host without jeopardising social harmony. Jobs are a hot-button issue, and many a country can trace civic unrest or even revolution to perceived injustice around who can and cannot access good job opportunities.

The Chinese government seems to have foreseen this breaking point by investing heavily in transnational education (TNE). There are now more than 1,000 Chinese-foreign joint ventures or international branch campuses (IBCs) in various regions, including China. In fact, China’s “education blueprint” explicitly states a goal of attracting foreign science and engineering universities to set up shop in China. Hongqing Yang, chief executive of the Educationist Group, a Hong-Kong based consultancy, told Times Higher Education: “China seeks to cultivate talent domestically by opening up to foreign universities, especially as it faces challenges in sending its students abroad for education, particularly STEM education.”

Evolving approach

In the first 20 years of this century, the Chinese government invested heavily in the capacity and quality of China’s higher education system even as millions of Chinese students continued to go abroad. Three factors are fuelling a further evolution of China’s approach going forward:

1. China’s emerging superpower status, massive investments in research, and well-cultivated alliances and agreements with countries all over the world now allow its universities to partner equally with top foreign universities, which is a new source of innovation.
   
   
2. More restrictive visa regimes in the Big Four study destinations, tensions with the US, and a lower premium for foreign-earned degrees are prompting Chinese families to question the return on investment of study abroad.
   
   
3. The public mood suggests that there are limits to the social licence for attracting more international students to China (a development we have seen in Canada, Australia, the UK, and the US to various extents).

The UK has always been the leader in transnational education provision. In 2026, it faces far more competition in this area. Institutions in other destinations are rushing to set up branch campuses and joint programmes – often in response to government policies limiting their recruitment of students to home campuses. China is at the forefront of this race. The Chinese Ministry of Education approved a record 285 new joint education institutes and programmes at the degree level in 2025. There are now 1,589 active TNE partnerships involving China and another country.

As QS noted in its Global Flows report, China is steadily “positioning its universities as more credible partners in shaping the future of global education.”

For more information, please see:

• “China: Two-thirds of new TNE partnerships are with countries outside the Big Four”
• “China opens up to global STEM talent with new visa class”
• “Market snapshot: International student recruitment in China today”
• “Youth unemployment reaches record high in China”

The post Inbound, outbound, and transnational: the landscape for international education in China continues to evolve appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

The new fee, announced without warning on 1 March 2026, is more than 10 times, 3 times, and twice the amount that students pay for similar visas in Canada, New Zealand, and the UK, respectively. Across three increases spanning 2024, 2025, and now 2026, the Temporary Graduate Visa application fee has more than doubled.

There are also now heftier fees for post-study work applicants’ accompanying dependants. The fee for partners or dependants aged 18 and over has risen from AU$1,115 to AU$2,300, and the fee for children under 18 years of age has increased from AU$560 to AU$1,150.

Even before the latest increase, the Temporary Graduate Visa was the expensive post-study work visa in the world.

Rising costs

The fee hike follows a pattern of rising costs for international students in Australia over the past couple of years. For example:

• The non-refundable student visa (Subclass 500) fee has risen twice in the past two years and now stands at AU$2,000 (roughly US$1,400), making it the most expensive study visa fee across all destinations.

• The for living costs rose to AU$29,710 (about US$20,000) per year in 2024.

• The private health insurance premium – which almost all international students need for a visa – is set to rise by +4.4% in April 2026.

• Many Australian universities have raised their tuition fees as the cost of international student recruitment has risen amidst far tighter governmental oversight and regulations. The average year-over-year increase was more than +6% in 2025.

Price effects

When the Australian government raised the application fee for the student visa (Subclass 500) in 2025, it said the higher cost would help to weed out non-genuine students (i.e., people who use study-related visa classes for the main purpose of working and/or immigrating to Australia).

Across higher education, vocational education (VET), and English-language training establishments (ELICOS), reaction to that move was negative despite widespread support for more integrity safeguards for students and institutions alike. Critics pointed out that as the new fee was introduced, visa refusals were skyrocketing, particularly for VET and ELICOS students. Many students – especially from Southeast Asia – have paid the non-refundable fee of AU$2,000 only to be refused for a visa. The ELICOS and VET sectors have been particularly hard hit by the higher fees, which apply regardless of the student’s intended length of study in Australia.

The new application fee for the Temporary Graduate Visa – as well as its sudden announcement and immediate implication – has shocked both educators and students. interviewed a student named Jimmy (no last name given), whose student visa is soon to expire. He said:

“It sets a dangerous precedent where the government can bypass fairness at its whim to the detriment of vulnerable groups. Treating us as an ATM at the 11th hour is … a massive breach of trust that severely damages Australia’s international reputation.”

The National Union of Students (NUS) international officer, Ariya Masud, added to The Guardian:

“Being blindsided by the country that over 800,000 current students have called their home for years sends a clear message to international students about their standing in Australian society. [We are] regarded as ATMs to funnel a multibillion-dollar industry instead of human beings being forced into abandoning the lives and careers they’ve built here.”

A hurdle to recruitment

Australian immigration expert Dr Abul Rizvi told Vietnamese news outlet that fees for international students in Australia have been rising much faster than inflation. He said that for many students, the ability to work after studies helps to offset the cost of completing an academic programme.

What’s more, international prospects carefully consider work rights when calculating the likely return on investment (ROI) of study abroad in various destinations, as we have reported recently. The Temporary Graduate Visa application fee hike – along with high visa refusal rates – will almost certainly change the ROI calculations of many families considering study abroad.

Speaking with , Jesse Garden-Russell, president of the Council of Australian Postgraduate Associations (CAPA), said the fee hike was unfair to international graduates already struggling with high living and study costs. She continued:

“[It] sends a clear message that international graduates are being treated as revenue sources rather than valued contributors to Australia’s workforce and society. Graduates finish their studies hoping to gain work experience here, contribute to their fields and build networks – not to be hit with unpredictable, punitive costs.”

For additional background, please see:

• “How are Australian universities approaching international recruitment in 2026?”
• “What students want: The top decision factors for study abroad”
• “Australia: Full-year data for 2025 reveals impact of AUD$2,000 study visa application fee on ELICOS sector”

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