The latter development is bound to have widening impacts across the world as the strait is a notably narrow maritime passage through which approximately 20% of the world’s daily oil and liquefied natural gas shipments flow. A closure of any duration will cause supply chain shortages and surging energy prices, and could even threaten global economic stability.

It has been hard not to notice the early projections of that widening economic instability over the past couple of weeks. In the , for example, “When the war in Iran started
Asia expected to see serious, gradual impacts from losing access to a huge portion of the world’s oil and gas. But the conflict’s economic and social impacts have hit the region harder and faster than officials and experts expected.”

Or from : “Losing almost 20% of global oil supply leads to shortages, rationing, with effects that go far beyond demand destruction from higher prices. Around two-thirds of global oil consumption is transport-related, and diesel is the backbone of commercial logistics, agriculture, and parts of industry, so disruption would hit the economy through multiple channels.”

It seems clear that those impacts will be felt unevenly, with some global regions, notably Asia, more impacted as those supply chains and energy supplies are more directly affected by a disruption in Gulf shipping. Other regions, such as North America, are expected to be less affected. What is clear, however, is that such a significant change in global energy supply will unleash a new type of inflationary pressure on global markets, as rising fuel costs drive up prices across the global economy.

Those price effects have been particularly visible over the past month with respect to air travel. Around the world, carriers are adding fuel surcharges or otherwise raising fares to keep pace with rising fuel costs. Some are also cutting back on routes to better ensure that flights operate closer to capacity. There are also a growing number of reports projecting a shortage in jet fuel for at least this quarter and next, which could lead to further flight reductions and will only heighten the upward pressure on airfares.

“Much of the world’s jet fuel is refined in Asia; South Korea is the world’s No. 1 exporter,” reports . “But much of the crude that Asian countries use to make jet fuel comes from the Middle East
Even if the strait does reopen for good, and soon, it will take weeks for oil and jet fuel trapped by the strait’s closure to reach customers in Europe and Asia.”

To make that a little more concrete, the benchmark European jet fuel price for the week ending 24 April was US$1,478 per tonne, which compares to the per-tonne rate of US$831 before the war began. Airline pricing policy is changing quickly as a result, with carriers often levying fixed or route-specific fuel surcharges. In some cases, airfares have roughly doubled (or more) since February.

On top of those direct impacts of rising fuel costs and/or shortages of jet fuel, tens of thousands of flights have been cancelled or rerouted around key air travel hubs in the Gulf region, further adding to the disruption and upward pressure on airfares.

How are students affected?

It is too early to say how that global pricing disruption, or the prospect of a deepening economic impact, will impact student mobility.

Based on historical patterns, we might imagine that students travelling for longer-term travel – such as a degree programme or K-12 studies of a year or more – are less likely to be deterred in their study plans this year. But those same historical patterns suggest that enrolment in shorter-term courses, such as summer language programmes, could be more heavily affected.

When asked for their perspective on an EnglishUSA online forum, member language schools reported a mixed outlook for the summer season. “No one has explicitly referenced high airfare as a reason for not enrolling in courses this summer,” said one. “One partner did mention higher flight costs than anticipated, but that did not impact plans to attend our summer sessions. We’ve also had some partners indirectly reference ‘global affairs’ as a reason for not sending students this year, without mentioning flights specifically.”

“One of our partners cited the war, rising costs, and current global uncertainty as their reason for backing out of a summer special programme,” said another. “So, yes, we are seeing a negative impact.”

English UK Chief Executive Jodie Gray adds, “We have heard anecdotal reports from members that they’re seeing some cancellations from individual students/groups, and there’s concern that the situation may worsen as we move towards the summer.

English UK is running a monthly barometer of our members to monitor the impact of the war in the Middle East on their businesses. At this time of year, it’s very much a tipping point. There is a sense of uncertainty about what will unfold over the coming months as we head into the crucial summer season. What is clear is that the UK ELT sector is very much open for business as normal.”

For additional background, please see:

• “As Iran retaliates across the Middle East, schools close, students worry, and institutions reassess transnational education“

The post How will the war in Iran impact international student mobility? appeared first on șÚÁÏčÙÍű Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

The context here is the past three years of new policy settings and greater government intervention to manage student inflows, as well as two successive student visa application fee hikes. As of this writing, the non-refundable fee of AU$2,000 is the highest in the world. The cost of a student visa – and the very real possibility for students from many markets that their application will be refused – is dampening demand, especially for students coming for relatively shorter programmes, such as English-language courses.

Unravelling the data

Presenting the analysis to IEAA members in April 2026, English Australia CEO Ian Aird showcased the importance of clarifying the source, time frame, and implications of often misunderstood data indicators for Australia’s international education sector. For example:

• Enrolments vs. student numbers: In Australia, course enrolments tend to be the main data point presented in international education summaries and covered by media. They are sometimes confused with international student numbers – which are something quite different. Enrolments are always far higher than student numbers because international students often enrol in multiple courses in a given year (e.g., two back-to-back English-language courses of four months each would be counted as two enrolments for a single student).

• Commencements vs. NTAs: General commencement numbers comprise both students coming for the first time to study in Australia and students already in Australia who progress from a completed course to a new course. But “New-to-Australia” (NTA) commencements describe only offshore students enrolling for the first time ever in Australia.

Each of those four indicators – course enrolments, student numbers, commencements, and NTA commencements – tell very different stories. Of the four, enrolments are the least indicative of the current and future state of affairs. Mr Aird explains:

“Both enrolment and commencement figures must be recognised as ‘lag indicators’ in terms of sector health. That is, the enrolments are students who may have started their courses months and sometimes years ago. Even commencements are students who booked, paid for, and were granted visas months before they commence. If a commencement is part of a pathway, it too could have been booked years before it is indicated in the official data.

This means that the majority of 2025 enrolments and many 2025 commencements are students who were not impacted by any of the 2024 changes to the student visa system and government policy.”

Why NTAs are more predictive of future trends

New-to-Australia commencement data offers a stronger indication of international student demand under the current settings – and relatedly, factors either easing or challenging students’ ability to come to Australia. This is because NTA counts represent new students coming into Australia within the recent past (as opposed to enrolments, for example, where data could represent demand from years prior, before the new policy settings came into force). Therefore, the latest NTA data reflects students who have relatively recently:

• Wanted to apply to an institution in Australia
• Decided to pay the fee for a visa application (currently AU$2,000)
• Had their visa approved

When NTAs fall, it suggests that fewer students now consider it worthwhile to apply for a visa and/or more students who are having their visa rejected. A recent decline suggests that the trend will continue unless current circumstances change. Right now, that context is Australia’s extraordinarily expensive visa application fee and high rate of visa refusals.

Recent increases or decreases in the volume of visa applications and in the visa approval rate provide an even better sense of the future trendline for the sector. These can also be divided into applications made in Australia (hence, re-enrolling students) and applications made outside Australia (generally, New-to-Australia students).

Have NTAs fallen?

New-to-Australia commencements have indeed fallen (see Chart 1 below), and this decline coincides with both a lower application volume (Chart 2) and a higher visa refusal rate for students from key markets.

Below, Chart 1 shows that whole-sector NTAs have dropped significantly over the past two years and are significantly lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic. Chart 2 reveals that the number of students submitting visa applications fell by 32% from the post-COVID rebound peak in 2023 to 2025.

The damage to ELICOS and VET providers is the most severe

The picture for the ELICOS and VET sectors is considerably bleaker than the all-sector aggregate: a -40% y-o-y New-to-Australia commencement decline in 2025 for ELICOS and a -49% fall for VET. Chart 3 (below) shows the pattern for ELICOS.

As English Australia notes, there is a clear connection between the timing of visa application fee hikes and plummeting applications (and NTAs) for ELICOS:

“The student visa application charge went from AU$710 to AU$1,600 from 1 July 2024. This saw the monthly average student visa applications for ELICOS study fall by 34% versus pre-COVID (2018–2019) application levels or 46% versus post-COVID (2023) application levels. The increase of the student visa application charge to AU$2,000 from 1 July 2025 saw applications for ELICOS fall a further 27%.”

What about higher education?

The higher education sector has so far fared better than other kinds of providers because (1) many of the universities have the advantage of streamlined visa processing, which means their applicants aren’t scrutinised to nearly the extent as for other sectors, and (2) students are more willing to pay the visa application fee because it is a smaller proportion of the cost of a degree. For example, from 2024 to 2025:

• Higher education course enrolments rose by +9.7%;
• Commencements also increased slightly (+0.7%);
• New-to-Australia commencements were down by only -0.5%.

However, the sector’s resilience is now being tested in multiple ways. Major challenges include a decline in demand from China and high visa refusal rates for other key markets.

Chart 4 shows the proportion of applications from the top 10 source countries for higher education. The top 10 countries are traditionally responsible for 85% of all HE applications from offshore (that is, new students in the system). In Q4 2025, Chinese applications accounted for over 4 in 10 (43%) of these offshore applications. This fell to a third (34%) in January 2026 and to less than a quarter (23%) in February 2026.

By contrast, demand from India, Nepal, and Bangladesh has risen to the point where 65% of offshore applications from the top 10 are from these three countries. But much of this demand is being stopped at the border. In February 2026, 40% of Indians applying for a visa for study at an Australian university were rejected, as were 51% of Bangladeshis and 65% of Nepalis.

Lower interest from China – coupled with high visa rejection rates for students from other top markets –will almost certainly lead to a decline in Australian university commencements and enrolments in the coming intakes.

Are Australian government policies working?

To manage immigration, the Australian government is working to better link migrant profiles to labour force skills gaps. It wants to reduce net migration to pre-pandemic levels though policies aimed at increasing barriers for low-skilled temporary visa holders to work and immigrate.

Mr Aird presented a slide (shown below) showing that of eight temporary visa categories, only one is being affected by this mission: international students. He commented:

“Where government is talking about the number of temporary visa holders, and they’re taking all sorts of actions to control and manage that, they’re actually managing only one group – student visa holders. The other groups are all increasing significantly.”

The English Australia report reminds readers: “It’s vital to remember these numbers relate to real people. Falling student numbers means lost jobs in Australia, lost livelihoods.”

For additional background, please see:

• “Australia: Student visa refusal rates reach record high amid weakening demand from China”
• “Australia: Latest enrolment data challenges the government’s assertion of stability for international education this year“
• “Australia: Full-year data for 2025 reveals impact of AUD$2,000 study visa application fee on ELICOS sector“
• “Australia passes integrity legislation; sharpens definition of agents and agent commissions“

The post Australia: Multiple data indicators signal further declines ahead for international student numbers appeared first on șÚÁÏčÙÍű Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

As of this year, however, that pathway enrolment has now dwindled to the “low single digits” according to industry experts. This dramatic shift is the result of new immigration settings that essentially upended that national network of joint programmes.

Not enough PALs

The challenge to the pathway model first appeared in the form of Canada’s cap on foreign enrolment in January 2024. That cap is in part administered through an inventory of Provincial Attestation Letters (PALs) that are allocated by the federal government to each Canadian province or territory. Each provincial or territorial government in turn distributes its PAL inventory among its respective Designated Learning Institutions (DLIs). The pattern that has emerged over the first years of the cap system is that (1) PAL allocations tend to be heavily weighted to public institutions and (2) the allocations for language schools are often very modest.

In 2026, for example, Ontario, the province that is home to the country’s largest share of international students, allocated 96% of its PALs to public colleges and universities in the province. Only 4% were reserved for language schools, private universities, and other institutions.

The change of status problem

Subsequent to the introduction of the enrolment cap, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) also introduced that sets out that an international student, “Must be enrolled in the designated learning institution (DLI) named on [their] study permit. This means [they] can no longer change DLIs by letting us know through [their] online account. To change DLIs, [they] need to get a new study permit by applying to extend [their] current one.”

This directly impacted the traditional pathway model in Canada in that students would now need to apply for a new study permit as they moved from one pathway partner (one DLI, that is) to the next.

In short, that combination of a limited inventory of PALs for language schools and the additional uncertainty introduced around the new change of status provisions meant that the conventional pathway model in Canada was no longer viable.

Creating a new pathway model for language study

On the heels of those earlier policy changes from 2024, IRCC introduced a further revision to its rules for “joint programmes resulting in a single credential” in July 2025.

Languages Canada, the peak body for language training in the country, sought clarification from IRCC as to how that new rule might apply to pathway programmes. “The idea we began with,” says Languages Canada Executive Director Gonzalo Peralta, “is that language itself could be the joint programme.”

In November 2025, the association received confirmation from IRCC that the new rule around joint programmes could indeed be applied to a language study pathway.

This determination led Languages Canada to create a new model for pathways – the (JPP) – and to operationalise that new model via a limited pilot beginning in February 2026.

Languages Canada explains that in the JPP, “Lower-level language education is delivered by the private partner, followed by upper-level language education at the public partner. Students remain within a single joint programme under one study permit. The public institution issues a [letter of acceptance, LOA] and PAL naming both DLIs and specifying the joint programme. The public institution conducts LOA verification and compliance reporting, and issues a conditional LOA for the academic programme [outside of the JPP].”

That model is based on IRCC’s current for joint programmes which set out that:

“Students pursuing a joint programme that results in a single credential may be issued

• one provincial/territorial attestation letter from the province or territory of the DLI issuing the credential and
• one study permit for the DLI issuing the credential for the entire duration of their studies (or for the duration of their passport validity, whichever comes first).

The DLI issuing the credential must

• issue the LOA with no academic conditions required to advance to the next DLI in the joint programme
• complete the LOA verification activity
• complete the international student compliance regime report, which includes reporting on the student when they are studying at any other DLI that is part of the administration of the joint program”

With that operational guidance in place, the benefits for each partner in the JPP are clear. As Languages Canada explains, “For private language schools, the JPP creates a compliant pathway for study permit students and helps navigate PAL scarcity. For public institutions, it offers a way to increase intake by partnering with trusted private partners and leveraging established recruitment pipelines in diverse markets.”

Going nationwide

Based on the findings from the early pilot and on the considerable demand from prospective pathway partners, Languages Canada announced at its annual conference in March 2026 that the JPP pilot will now be rolled out nationally. “The Joint Pathway Program aims to bring language pathway programmes back to Canada’s education ecosystem, in a structured and responsible way that protects students, institutions, and Canada,” says Mr Peralta. “By aligning language education with post-secondary pathways in a clear and coordinated way, we are restoring confidence in Canada as a destination of choice for international students.”

Along with ILSC and Oxford International, ILAC is a participant in the pilot. “As an established leader in Canadian pathway programmes, ILAC is committed to using the JPP to continue delivering an exceptional student journey, offering a smooth, supported transition from our language programmes to post-secondary institutional partners,” adds Senior Vice President Partnership Development and Career Colleges Magdalena Link. “The IRCC-approved JPP further amplifies these opportunities, opening new doors for students pursuing higher education in Canada. The benefits for students are clear: the JPP removes the risk associated with change of status or applying for a new study permit. It offers more certainty as students can transfer from the private language school partner to the public post-secondary partner under a single study permit.”

“Our objective is to bring pathways back to Canada,” says Languages Canada’s Peralta. “Within three to five years, we want to have at least 10% of language students in pathways.”

For additional background, please see:

• “Canada’s foreign enrolment has fallen by nearly 300,000 students over the last two years“
• “Canada: A case study of immigration policy impacts on postsecondary institutions and the wider economy“
• “Canada announces international student cap numbers for 2026 and updated programme guidance“
• “Nearly 30 Canadian language programmes closed in Q1, marking the ‘sharpest decline in the sector’s history’“
• “Canada’s language sector buffeted by policy changes in 2024“

The post Canada’s language training sector reinvents pathway programme model in response to policy settings appeared first on șÚÁÏčÙÍű Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

The op-ed is a study in rhetoric. It is well written and structured. It positions the government as supportive of the international education sector. And it is persuasive in asserting that there remains a need for policies that “boost integrity and crack down on dodgy practices 
. to combat the exploitation of overseas students and address behaviours that seek to exploit the migration system.” No one in international education would take issue with those points.

Further, Mr Hill writes:

“Continuity in the form of policy stability is good for providers, students and Australia’s global market positioning in a chaotic world where competitors are lurching and rapidly changing settings 
. we aim to maximise policy stability and minimise policy shocks.”

This is a fine idea. Except that the government’s international education policies have never been less stable than over the past two years.

Mr Hill calls out competitors for “lurching and rapidly changing settings,” yet Australia stands with Canada as outliers in terms of the scale and pace of government interventions in the international education sector. Rule changes – from visa fees to post-study work rights and more – are announced frequently and with little to no sectoral consultation or forewarning, leaving institutions scrambling to adjust, often with weeks or days to react.

An article in elaborates:

“For a sector like international education, predictability is not a luxury, it is foundational. Providers plan years in advance, setting recruitment targets, building offshore pipelines, investing in partnerships and staffing based on policy settings they expect to hold. When those settings shift rapidly or without clear forward guidance, the impact is immediate and far reaching. Agents lose confidence, students look elsewhere, and institutions are left recalibrating mid cycle. In this context, predictability is not about resisting reform, but about enabling it to land effectively. Without a stable and clearly signalled policy environment, even well-intentioned changes undermine the very outcomes they are designed to achieve. This is a message the government is reluctant to accept.”

Not targeted enough

The stated goal of the government’s policies is to curtail bad actors (i.e., unethical agents, institutions, and students who use study visas mainly or entirely to work/immigrate to Australia). The problems here are that:

• Their design is broadly punitive rather than targeted.
• They are not just dissuading non-genuine students from entering the country. They are also dampening demand from genuine students.

A notable drop in commencements; ELICOS and VET hard hit

The latest available data from reports:

“In the YTD December 2025, 846,321 international students studied in Australia, a -0.5% Ìędecline on the same period in 2024. The number of new students, studying in Australia in 2025 (202,882) declined by -15% on the same period in 2024.

The Higher Education sector still had growth in enrolments on the same period in 2024 (10%), followed by Schools (4%), while all other sectors showed declines, notably ELICOS (-35%).”

Those numbers tell the tale of a sector in which key segments are travelling in opposite directions. Lower student demand is especially notable in the English-language (ELICOS) and vocational education (VET) sectors.

Starting in mid-2023, the Australian government has hiked the application fee for a student visa three times, landing on the current cost of AU$2,000. With every increase, reputable English-language providers have lost significant numbers of students and have been disproportionately affected compared with universities.

This is because English-language programmes tend to be relatively short and less expensive than diplomas or degrees. For many prospective ELICOS students, the AU$2,000 (non-refundable) fee represents up to 40% of the total cost for a programme. For students from source countries with high visa refusal rates, the possibility of paying that much for a visa they may not receive is disheartening – and it often leads them to choose another destination.

The example of Colombia

Colombia is a good example of how fee increases and visa rejection rates are hitting the ELICOS sector. Colombia is currently the seventh largest market for international education, and one that is predominantly focused on English-language studies.

Since 2023, Colombian ELICOS enrolments and commencements have fallen by -63% and -96%, respectively. This coincides with:

• Refusal rates for Colombian ELICOS applicants rising from about 4% in 2022/23 to around 40% in 2024/25;
• Application fee increases in 2023, 2024, and 2025.

Data in the following chart suggests a correlation between fee increases and enrolments and commencements over three years.

Across all source markets, Colombian and otherwise, visa applications fell -39% for ELICOS programmes between 2024 and 2025. Vocational (VET) institutions have also been hit hard, with applications down by -35%.

The downstream effect for higher education

Colombian students mostly come to Australia for English-language or vocational studies; a relatively small proportion progresses to higher education. But other top ELICOS markets such as Thailand are also important for Australian universities, and many students begin in ELICOS then go on to higher education. If we look at 2024/25, .

Sticking with Thailand, Thai commencements in ELICOS began falling dramatically in 2024, as shown in the following chart.

The next chart depicts Thai commencements in higher education. In 2025, after three years of growth, the volume of these commencements fell. Part of the decline is due to the major drop in Thai commencements in ELICOS from 2023 to 2024 – which are just starting to affect numbers in higher education, as it takes anywhere from 6 to 24 months for the ELICOS–higher education pathway to show up in data.

A mixed performance

Much of the strategic direction Mr Hill articulates in his op-ed makes sense: furthering transnational education; matching international student profiles to skills gaps in the Australian economy; and considering international education beyond economic benefits.
Ìę
He is absolutely right that “a stronger, more sustainable, and resilient international education sector that delivers more value for Australia, providing students with a top-quality education and welcoming experience, is something that everyone can be proud of.”

But this will not happen if policies continue to punish quality institutions as well as suspect ones, and continue to gut the ability of excellent ELICOS and VET institutions to draw sufficient enrolments. The international education sector’s health depends on a holistic understanding of its interconnections.

Of the industry response to the op-ed, The Koala News says:

“Across the many voices The Koala has spoken to, a consistent theme has emerged, people are feeling worn down, fatigued and increasingly dispirited 
. [Mr Hill’s op-ed] is a signal to the sector that the settings of the past two years are not a phase, they are the foundation of a new policy era
The era of demand-driven international education in Australia is over. [Mr Hill’s statement] reaffirms the pedal is still on the gas for reform even though numbers appear to be moving in the government’s favoured direction.”

For additional background, please see:

• “Australia: Full-year data for 2025 reveals impact of AUD$2,000 study visa application fee on ELICOS sector”
• “Australia: With ELICOS under pressure, peak bodies push for reduction in ‘extortionate’ visa fees”
• “Australia: Visa rejection rates spike as some institutions withdraw admissions offers under new migration settings“

The post Australia: Latest enrolment data challenges the government’s assertion of stability for international education this year appeared first on șÚÁÏčÙÍű Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

The Q4 data reveals an overall year-over-year increase from the same quarter in 2024, but an even deeper, long-term drop from pre-COVID volumes. The number of student weeks fell by -21% from Q4 2024 to the last quarter of 2025. Comparing the same quarter from last year to 2019, the declining volume – at -43% – is even more severe.

The bright spot, as has generally been the case over the last several years, is in the junior category. While junior weeks are still down by -35% from the pre-COVID benchmark in Q4 2019, they rose by 5% from Q4 2024 to Q4 2025 on the strength of stronger bookings from Spain and Chile.

The additional chart below reflects the absolute changes in student weeks volumes for each quarter in 2025, compared to the same quarter in 2024 and broken down into the junior and adult categories.

General English programmes remain by far the most popular course type across UK ELT, accounting for 89% of junior bookings and 88% of adult enrolments in the last quarter of 2025.

Saudi Arabia continues to be the leading sending market for UK ELT, followed by Türkiye, Japan, Brazil, South Korea to round out the top five.

Stepping back to look at other important segment characteristics for 2025 as a whole, English UK notes that nearly eight in ten ELT enrolments (77%) during the year came via an agent, and that a similar proportion (78%) were for individual (as opposed to group) bookings.

For additional background, please see:

• “UK ELT reports declining enrolments for first half of 2025“
• “Global ELT volumes dipped in 2024“

The post UK ELT reports challenging enrolment trends continued through last quarter of 2025 appeared first on șÚÁÏčÙÍű Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

English Australia, the peak body for the ELICOS sector, has published a Market Analysis Report exploring the data. The report does not include information on enrolments and commencements because full-year numbers have not yet been released by the government, but it does give a detailed picture of demand for study in Australia under the country’s updated immigration settings and fee structures.

ELICOS visa applications down nearly 40%

On average (across all education sectors), study visa application numbers were down -14% in 2025 compared with 2024, and this is on the heels of a -21% decrease the previous year.

However, unlike for other sectors, demand for university studies in Australia remains strong: the number of visa applications filed in 2025 was greater than in 2019 despite a -2% drop compared with 2024.

It is demand for other kinds of study – especially short courses – that is plummeting. Between 2024 and 2025, visa applications fell:

• -35% for VET
• -14% for K-12 schools
• -39% for ELICOS programmes

The effect of visa application increases

The Australian government has rapidly increased study visa application fees over the past two years. In 2023, the fee was AUD$710. This increased +125% to $1,600 in 2024, then to $2,000 in July 2025.

ELICOS providers deliver courses that are far shorter, and less expensive, than university degree programmes. English Australia explains the disproportionate impact of the fee hikes on demand for English-language-only programmes:

“In 2025, the Labor government confirmed it would raise the world’s most expensive student visa application charge [then $1,600] another 25% to AUD$2,000. By this stage ELICOS applicants were experiencing the highest rate of student visa application refusal on record and were being asked to pay an average of 30% to 40% of the cost of their study to apply for a student visa that saw 1 in 4 applicants refused. The application numbers fell immediately again 
 These step-down shifts at the point of introduction of these visa fee hikes make it very clear that the AUD$2,000 non-refundable charge has made Australia far less attractive for short term students.”

The lowest volume of visa grants in 20 years

Overall, the number of visas that Australian immigration officials granted to international student applicants fell -2% between 2024 and 2025. Again, the decrease was not felt equally across education sectors:

• The higher education sector experienced a marginal -1% decline in visa approvals compared with 2024, and visa grants were actually up +14% when compared to 2019 levels.
• The VET sector saw a small increase in visa grants in 2025 compared with 2024, but this was still -45% lower than in 2019.
• K-12 schools saw -17% fewer visas granted in 2025 than in 2024. Since 2019, the decline has been -28%.

For the ELICOS sector, the severity of the decline in visa grants is illustrated in the fact that in the last six months of 2025, fewer visas were granted for study at an ELICOS provider than at any other time over the past 20 years.

The damage to the ELICOS sector since 2024 can be seen across several measures, including job losses. The visa application fee is estimated to have resulted in 5,000 to 9,000 full-time job losses over two years in ELICOS institutions.

Of all the statistics, job losses should give readers serious pause. They represent the impact to staff, institutions, and schools that have contributed greatly to the development of the ELICOS sector over many years, and, by extension, to Australia’s economy.

The stakes are very high going forward. Speaking to șÚÁÏčÙÍű Monitor late last year, David Scott, the managing director at the Sydney-based English Language Company (ELC) said:

“If the student fee is not reduced significantly and very soon, the English language teaching sector, especially private independent colleges, is likely to disappear in the next 12–24 months. The introduction of the ‘extortionate, world’s worst, non-refundable visa charge of AUD$2000’, combined with the unprecedented increase in student visa rejections, has basically dealt a mortal blow to the English language sector in Australia. The once thriving sector is disappearing quickly as students turn their backs on Australia. Why would anyone pay AUD$2000 to study a short English course in a country that is likely to reject your visa and keep the fee? It makes no sense.”

No urgency for government

English Australia notes: “The report reveals what the ELICOS sector well knows – that 2025 saw ELICOS student numbers plummet further to new record lows even after very low numbers in 2024.”

“While there were initially signs that the government was considering lowering the student visa application charge for ELICOS and other non-award enrolments, discussions appear to have stalled, and Canberra has shown no urgency on the matter.”

For additional background, please see:

“Australia: With ELICOS under pressure, peak bodies push for reduction in ‘extortionate’ visa fees“

The post Australia: Full-year data for 2025 reveals impact of AUD$2,000 study visa application fee on ELICOS sector appeared first on șÚÁÏčÙÍű Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

It is clear as well that ELICOS is the most severely impacted sector so far this year. Overall, international student commencements are down -16% in Australia YTD July 2025. Within that, higher education commencements are down relatively marginally (-2%), schools a bit more sharply (-10%), and VET providers more significantly again (-22%).

Many have attributed the downturn this year to the significant increases in Australia’s student visa application fee introduced over the past 15 months. In July 2024, the fee was increased from AUD$710 to AUD$1,600. In July 2025, it jumped again to AUD$2,000.

That amounts to an overall increase of 182% in just over a year, and it gives Australia the distinction of having the world’s most expensive visa fee, and by a considerable margin. For comparison, the fee to apply for a Canadian study permit is CDN$150 (AUD$172), and students need US$185 (AUD$299) to apply for an F-1 study visa in the United States.

Alongside those combined increases in the visa fee is a reported rise in rejection rates for offshore ELICOS applicants over the last three years. The Department of Home Affairs data for 2025 is not yet available but the data we can see indicates both that rejection rates are rising over time, but, perhaps more meaningfully, visa application volumes have declined sharply since 2022/23.

Ian Pratt is the managing director of , an ELICOS provider with six locations throughout Australia. He explains: “Visa fees are disproportionately damaging to the ELICOS sector. An AUD$2,000 fee on top of an AUD$100,000 university course is a serious consideration, but one that students will often accept. For a shorter ELICOS programme, however, that same AUD$2,000 can represent up to a third of tuition costs.”

“It is also important to remember that the increase in visa fees was coupled with a massive rise in the rejection of applicants. Many of these refusals simply do not make sense. Students might be willing to pay AUD$2,000 for a visa, but far fewer are willing to pay a non-refundable AUD$2,000 just to roll the dice at the Department of Home Affairs casino.”

“The reduction in student visa numbers for Australia has been an immense source of frustration for ELICOS providers. This is an entirely manufactured crisis,” he adds. “The two key factors driving the collapse in ELICOS enrolments are both government-made. The first is the absurd visa application fee. The second is MD-106 and the Genuine Student Test, which together have given immigration authorities an entirely subjective basis for rejecting visas. This discretion has been exercised with great enthusiasm. Every school has its own war stories of rejections that cannot be justified on any reasonable grounds.”

The impact is real

The dramatic increase in the visa fee and rising rejection rates have combined for a significant impact this year. Speaking to the in September 2025, English Australia Chief Executive Officer Ian Aird estimated that the huge drop in ELICOS numbers YTD 2025 have already cost the sector between 3,000 and 5,000 jobs.

Some of those losses have been concentrated in a series of high-profile school closures, including , (PICE), the , the , and, most recently, .

“If the student fee is not reduced significantly and very soon, the English language teaching sector, especially private independent colleges, is likely to disappear in the next 12 – 24 months,” says David Scott, the managing director at the Sydney-based (ELC). “The introduction of the ‘extortionate, world’s worst, non-refundable visa charge of AUD$2000’, combined with the unprecedented increase in student visa rejections, has basically dealt a mortal blow to the English language sector in Australia. The once thriving sector is disappearing quickly as students turn their backs on Australia. Why would anyone pay AUD$2000 to study a short English course in a country that is likely to reject your visa and keep the fee? It makes no sense.”

A renewed push for change

In a to the Prime Minister, Treasurer, Finance Minister, and several other cabinet ministers, the International Education Association of Australia (IEAA), English Australia and The Independent Tertiary Education Council Australia (ITECA), argued for a dramatic reduction in the visa application fee for students coming to Australia for programmes of less than a year.

The letter opens:

“The undersigned peak bodies, representing a substantial number of education providers, students and academics, and international education stakeholders, write to request an urgent reduction to the current AUD$2,000 non-refundable student visa application charge (VAC) for student cohorts applying to study:

• independent ELICOS programs and stay in Australia for less than 52 weeks
• non-award courses and stay in Australia for less than 52 weeks


We believe a 50% reduction for these cohorts is both fair and necessary.”

The three sector bodies argue in the letter that the reduction is warranted because charging the full fee “for a course lasting months or weeks is inequitable,” that the increases in the visa application fee have had a particularly severe impact on ELICOS providers, that a reduction in short-term study and exchange numbers limits outbound exchange opportunities for Australian students, and that such short-term enrolments do not factor in Australia’s Net Overseas Migration (and, by extension, nor do they intrude on the government’s goals to reduce those net migration numbers).

The joint letter closes on a note of urgency:

“While our sector has a clear preference for the Government reducing the [visa application fee] for these cohorts without offsetting measures, we recognise that current arrangements have been factored into the Budget outlook. We are therefore prepared to work with the Government to identify measures that will deliver a progressive solution without direct harm to the economy, to business and to Australia’s reputation.

Given the urgency of the situation, we request prompt resolution of these concerns as opposed to any Discussion Paper or ongoing consultation. The sector and our international partners are calling for action and we are seeking to partner with the Government in ensuring that is delivered without unnecessary delay.”

Quick action needed

Speaking to , Mr Honeywood also underscored that time is of the essence with the sector under such pressure this year:

“As each week goes by the sector hears of yet another English Language provider forced to close their doors. The time for polite conversation about reducing this extortionate world-worst visa charge is over. The Government has the means to reduce this charge and IEAA is pleased that English Australia and ITECA have joined with us to keep pressing for action.”

In a follow up comment to șÚÁÏčÙÍű Monitor, Mr Honeywood adds that, “IEAA has been made aware that the Home Affairs Department is currently modelling some cost offsets that might be introduced to meet our request for the 50% visa fee reduction for the two requested student cohorts. There is also the prospect of the Department sending out a Discussion Paper for stakeholder input to ascertain sector support for any such cost offsets. But this will only serve to delay action being taken.”

For additional background, please see:

• “Australia’s Labor Party signals an increase in student visa fees“
• “Australia implements immediate doubling of student visa application fees“
• “Global ELT volumes dipped in 2024“
• “New analysis forecasts marginal growth for foreign enrolment in Australia through 2030“

The post Australia: With ELICOS under pressure, peak bodies push for reduction in “extortionate” visa fees appeared first on șÚÁÏčÙÍű Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

Also reflecting the global trends from 2024, Ivana Bartosik, International Education Director at English UK’s research partner BONARD, notes that, “Across all major ELT destinations, Q2 2025 has seen a decline in student numbers.” She attributes the softer numbers in the first half of the year to continuing “policy uncertainty including enrolment caps, visa restrictions, and changes in government administration and an economic downturn in key source markets.”

Quarter by quarter

In a like-for-like comparison of schools that were operating across all of the survey periods, English UK says that reporting centres saw a -12% decline in students weeks from Q1 2024 to . As we see in the charts below, that decline is tied to softer adult learner numbers for the quarter.

The additional charts below for show a similar pattern, albeit with a decline in junior numbers as well. Student weeks for the quarter only marginally increased from Q1 (3%), but a similar like-for-like comparison finds that student weeks for the quarter, for that group of reporting centres, declined by -15%.

“Asian markets have been impacted by the trade war,” adds English UK. “Volatile exchange rates, economic slowdown, and uncertainty have also affected source markets, reducing outbound student mobility [thus far this year].”

Overall, the volume of student weeks for the quarter fell in relation to pre-pandemic benchmarks, representing 68% of Q2 2019 volume. This compares to the 72% recovery with respect to pre-pandemic levels reported for Q4 2024.

Key sending markets

In Q2 2025, the top 20 sending markets for UK ELT accounted for 89% of all student weeks. As it has been for some time, Saudi Arabia remains the top sender, albeit with a decrease of nearly 3,000 student weeks compared to the same quarter last year. More broadly, markets in the Middle East accounted for just over a third (34%) of all student weeks for the quarter.

Türkiye also held its spot as the second-ranked sending market, but also showed the strongest growth among top source markets, gaining just under 2,000 student weeks from the same quarter in 2024.

For additional background, please see:

• “Global ELT volumes dipped in 2024“
• “UK ELT reports a decline in student weeks for 2024“

The post UK ELT reports declining enrolments for first half of 2025 appeared first on șÚÁÏčÙÍű Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.