It is no coincidence that the Key Five are all emerging countries in the Global South, where large proportions of students are open to emigrating, temporarily or permanently, because of limited local opportunities. This makes immigration officials tend to question whether study visa applicants are genuine students – i.e., interested in quality education, a high-skilled job, and remaining compliant with visa conditions – or individuals with little intent to study and great intent to migrate in any way they can. Unfortunately, many genuine students from the Global South are disadvantaged in their applications because of where they are from.

The impact of the visa rejection trend for students from emerging economies in Asia and Africa could be enormous across the global international education landscape – and beyond. Already, it is spurring fewer visa grants, reduced recruiting in high-risk markets, and more withdrawals from students eager to avoid a rejection on their student profile. Not surprisingly, commencements are trending down in leading study destinations, and this will pressure overall enrolments in the years ahead.

In this article, we will look at Key Five origin countries with regards to:

• Their importance to overall enrolments across the Big Four;
• Recent study visa rejection rates;
• Commencement trends (i.e., the volume of new students provided a study visa allowing them to enrol in a Big Four education institution).

Contribution to overall international student numbers

According to the most recent available enrolment data, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Nigeria, and Pakistan compose anywhere from 30% to 40%+ of the entire international student body in Big Four destinations.

Visa rejection rates for the Key Five

Having illustrated the huge presence of Key Five students in the total international student populations of the Big Four, we’ll turn to recent visa refusal trends (where official data are available).

Bangladesh: Nearly three-quarters (73%) of Bangladeshi applicants for US F-1 visas were turned away in 2025. Bangladeshi students have in recent years been very likely to receive a visa for Australia (about a 5% rejection rate in 2024/25), but in February 2026, more than half (51%) of offshore applicants from Bangladesh were refused.

India: Indian students, who represent either the #1 or #2 source market across the Big Four, are now quite likely to be refused a study visa in those destinations. Rejection rates were 61% in the US (2025), 80% in Canada (Q2 2025), and 60% in Australia (February 2026). While only 7.5% were denied a sponsored study visa in the UK in Q4 2025–Q1 2026, this this was up from less than 4% in winter 2024/25.

Nepal: More than 8 in 10 (81%) Nepali applicants were rejected for a US F-1 visa in 2025, and in February 2026, the Australian study visa rejection rate for Nepal soared to 65%. Interestingly, Nepali students were more likely to be approved for a UK sponsored study visa in winter 2025/26 than in winter 2024/25, bucking the general trend for emerging markets (see chart below).

Nigeria: Since December 2025, Nigerians have been included in an expanded travel ban announced by the US administration, along with dozens of other countries (mostly in Africa and Asia). In the UK, sponsored study rejections for Nigerian students used to be rare (less than 5%), but in winter 2025/26, 20% of Nigerian applicants were turned away. In Canada, between 70–80% were refused a study permit in in 2025.

Pakistan: More than 70% of Pakistanis were refused an F-1 visa in the US in 2026, and more than 6 in 10 offshore applicants from Pakistan were denied an Australian study visa in February 2026. Like Nigerians, Pakistani students applying for a sponsored study visa in the UK saw their rejection rate spike massively in winter 2025/26: increasing from 5.6% to 41% year-over-year.

These rejection rates for Key Five countries represent an absolutely huge number of potential students turned away.

What is happening to commencements?

Key Five commencements (new student entrants) are falling across the Big Four, with less than a handful of exceptions.
 
A striking example is F-1 visa issuances in the US in July/August of 2024 compared with July/August 2025. The percentages in the table below are based on our analysis of data from the US Department of State. It bears mentioning that in September of 2025 (not shown in the table), F-1 commencements fell further for Bangladesh (-69%), Nepal (-96%), Nigeria (-33%), and Pakistan (-9%) compared with September 2024.

In the UK, the following chart from HESA shows the dramatic drop-off in Indian (turquoise) and Nigerian (navy blue) commencements between 2023/24 and 2024/25: -13% and -33%, respectively. Over the span of two years (2022/23 to 2024/25), the declines were even more serious: -33% for India (126,580 to 94,955) and -132% for Nigeria (53,790 to 23,160).

In Canada, new student arrivals (from all nationalities) fell from 208,750 in 2024 to 115,120 in 2025. In January to April 2026 compared with the same period in 2025, arrivals were down -73% to about 200,000. There is no publicly available government information for specific markets, but the Times of India reports that between January and August 2025, Canada issued just 9,955 new study permits to Indian students.

In Australia, overall commencements fell by about -15% between 2024 and 2025, but this decline was concentrated in sectors other than higher education (the number of new international students in Australian universities edged up slightly in that time period). There was more of a mixed bag of commencement trends for the Key Five than in Canada, the UK, and US. Between 2024 and 2025, Indian and Pakistani commencements fell by -3.5% and -33%, respectively, while Nepal was up +33.5% and Bangladesh +33%.

The implications will stretch beyond international education

Our Key Five markets – Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Nigeria, and Pakistan – can be viewed as roughly representative of what is happening to mobility influences and flows between the Global South and Big Four destinations. They serve to show how immigration policies (and/or policy effects) in the Big Four are affecting demand from top non-EU markets. These policies, especially if they stretch on in time, could lead to:

• An intensification of existing challenges for the operations of hundreds of universities, colleges, and schools across the Big Four. Those institutions are often highly reliant on international student tuition amid declining domestic enrolments and/or public funding. Chinese commencements (which, for decades, were an important source of overall growth) are falling, and emerging markets in Asia and Africa have helped to mitigate the impact.

• Alternative destinations gaining a greater share of the world’s internationally mobile students (this is already happening – see From the Big Four to the Big Fourteen for background).



• A decline in the economic contribution of international education in the Big Four.



• A weakening of innovation and productivity in Big Four economies. India, in particular, contributes a large volume of STEM students and workers to Western nations.



• An erosion of the soft power of the Big Four in the Global South.

Methodological note

Data analyses are based on statistics from:

• The Australian
• (IRCC)
• The UK’s (HESA)
• The in the US

For additional information, please see:

• “UK: International student numbers fall for second year, especially in postgraduate programmes“
• “UK: Sponsored study visa issuances down, rejection rates up, and more“
• “There are more international students in the US than ever in 2025, but commencements are declining“
• “Visa rejections climb in the US for international students from key markets including India“
• “New international student permit approvals for Canada fell below COVID levels in 2025“
• “Australia: Multiple data indicators signal further declines ahead for international student numbers“
• “Australia: Latest enrolment data challenges the government’s assertion of stability for international education this year“

The post What is happening to student mobility flows between the Global South and Global North?  appeared first on şÚÁĎąŮÍř Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

The report is based on survey findings from just over 67,000 prospective international students from 150 countries. The survey data was collected between October 2025 and April 2026, and Keystone has combined it, where appropriate, with actual search data from its student-facing course search websites.

The first thing that jumps out from the data is the difference between student interest (the destinations students are most interested in) and student intent (the destination where they actually go on to enrol).

For example, Keystone explains, “While the USA was our most-searched destination (19%), fewer students in our survey are selecting it as their intended study destination, a trend that has persisted for the second year running.”

In other words, there is currently a significant gap between students’ initial interest in the Big Four study destinations and their actual enrolment. While students may want to enrol in a preferred destination, they then weigh practical considerations such as their chance of obtaining a study visa and also compare the relative safety and affordability of various options.

“Basically, the Big Four has a huge amount of interest and high appeal,” adds Dr Bennett. “But when we move on to actual intent, we move on to practical factors. That’s where the gap is.”

The Keystone data shows that student interest continues to fragment across a wider field of study destinations, especially those in Europe and Asia. What’s more, more students are now wanting to choose a destination before progressing to considering programmes or institutions.

Intended programme of study remains the most important factor (40%) for students making decisions about study abroad, but it has lost some ground since 2025. By contrast, country choice has risen from a sample-wide average of 20% in 2025 to 28% in 2026 – an average pulled up by certain regional trends. Keystone explains, “For South Asian respondents specifically, country (35%) now outranks programme (31%). This is the only regional audience where we see this happen, and the one most exposed to recent visa and policy changes. This suggests that students are ensuring their chosen destinations are accessible to them before they can consider institutions or courses.”

As for their biggest concerns, cost and eligibility were the top worries for students in this year’s survey, echoing responses from last year. But “political uncertainty” is the fastest-rising concern in 2026 (rated third by students after only cost and eligibility), which points to a significant level of anxiety attached to study abroad decision-making. Students are well-aware of visa barriers and rejection rates, and they are naturally worried that government policies affecting their study/work plans could change before or during their programme.

“Confidence is declining,” says Keystone. “Students worry less about their ability to succeed than their opportunity to do so.”

How do students rate destinations in that larger set?

“The Big 4 still compete on appeal, especially when considering academic reputation and subject offering,” says Keystone. “But they don’t have a commanding lead. And they’re falling behind on the practical considerations that make studying abroad possible for many.”

The chart below shows relative ratings given by students, for various decision factors, across the Big Four, selected destinations in Europe (Germany, Ireland, Netherlands, France), and a sample of Asian destinations (Japan, China, South Korea).

Dr Bennett points out that what this data is telling us is that “Prospective students don’t think the gap between destinations is as big as we perhaps do.”

Use versus trust

The survey findings also paint an interesting picture of the sources and channels that students use in their search for information about study abroad. As we see in the chart below, AI use, for example, is comparable to the percentage that say they look for information on university websites. But the trust students extend to those institutional websites considerably outstrips their confidence in the information they get via AIs.

Keystone offers this summary of the findings in this area: “The takeaway here is reassuring for institutions: even as AI and social media reshape how students search, they haven’t reshaped who students believe. University websites remain the anchor of credibility, the one channel audiences approach with conviction rather than uncertainty.”

“Generative and broad-search tools may dominate the discovery phase, but trust still flows to curated, human-crafted sources. The implication is clear: investing in owned channels and curated partnerships isn’t just defensible, it’s where decisions actually get made.”

For additional background, please see:

• “New IDP research shows link between visa uncertainty and the perceived ROI of study abroad“
• “UNESCO confirms growing trend of intra-regional student mobility“
• “UK: Sponsored study visa issuances down, rejection rates up, and more“
• “From the Big Four to the Big Fourteen“
• “What students want: The top decision factors for study abroad“

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The report draws on the most recent data available from 146 countries, and it covers 10 interrelated themes. This article focuses on the international student mobility findings and analysis.

More mobile students than ever

As of 2024, there were 7.3 million students studying abroad, a more-than-tripling over the past two decades. This growth is expected to continue for the next several years at least.

While seven countries host almost half of the world’s international students (see chart below), emerging destinations are increasingly popular. UNESCO names several of these:

• Argentina
• China
• Egypt
• Japan
• Malaysia
• South Korea
• °ŐĂĽ°ů°ěľ±˛â±đ
• The United Arab Emirates (UAE)

The report highlights °ŐĂĽ°ů°ěľ±˛â±đ and UAE in particular:

“In °ŐĂĽ°ů°ěľ±˛â±đ alone, the number of students surged within 10 years by more than six-fold, from 38,590 in 2012 to 244,027 in 2022 (the last year of data availability). In the United Arab Emirates, the figure grew five-fold to reach 237,034 in 2023, compared to 54,162 in 2012 (no data is available from 2013 to 2016).”

We can also point to recent Monitor data on some of these other emerging destinations:

• China
• Egypt
• Japan
• South Korea

Regional mobility has grown substantially

When we look at the increasingly popular emerging destinations highlighted by UNESCO, part of the story for their ascendence is the growing tendency of mobile students to stay within their own region for study. For example, UNESCO notes: “In East Asia, the number of international students travelling to study within the region is growing at a faster rate than those travelling outside the region.”

This is a major competitive issue for institutions in the West because of the sheer volume of mobile students from Asia. In 2023, nearly half of all outbound students came from Asia, with East Asia and the Pacific accounting for 26% and South Asia and West Asia responsible for another 21%. Those students used to gravitate mainly to the West, but this historical flow is weakening. Asian students are increasingly choosing destinations such as China, Japan, Malaysia, and South Korea.

UNESCO uses the example of China to underline the fact that several Asian destinations are now both major sources and hosts of international students:

“China plays a dual and dominant role in this [intraregional] trend. Not only is it the world’s primary source of outbound international students, but it also serves as the main host country within East Asia and the Pacific.”

In other parts of the world, too, the intra-regional movement is strong:

• Latin America and the Caribbean: “The proportion of students choosing to study in other countries within the region nearly doubled between 2000 and 2022, climbing from 24% to 43% [with Argentina the main recipient].”

• Middle East: “In most reporting countries, the majority of international students come from within the region. This is particularly pronounced in Jordan, Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Mauritania, and Algeria [where at least half of all inbound students are from Arab States].”

South-South mobility

Another crucial part of the evolution of global student mobility is the “South-South” phenomenon, where students travel between Global South countries. The trend is often fuelled by ambition and investment on the part of Global South countries aiming to be education hubs. UNESCO elaborates:

“Emergent examples include Egypt, whose scholarship programmes and package of initiatives under the Study in Egypt programme make it a top choice for students from Africa and the Arab States, and Malaysia, where low costs and expanding degree options attract students from East Asia and the Pacific. In India, students from sub-Saharan Africa are the second largest population group behind those from South and West Asia, which may be explained by the English-language programmes offered and cultural initiatives on the part of the Indian government, such as the Study in India programme which seeks to motivate students primarily from the Global South to undertake higher education in the country.”

The South-South trend is especially important considering that of the 10 countries responsible for almost half (45%) of all outbound mobility (see chart below), more than half are in the Global South (seven are in Asia and one is in Africa).

Towards better access to higher education?

The rest of the UNESCO report explains that while participation in higher education has never been higher, there are still pronounced differences in access and mobility, with poor students from less developed nations at a disadvantage:

“Despite growth expectations, the proportion of higher education students benefiting from academic mobility remains low, just under 3%, underscoring the elitist nature of mobility as still only a privileged few individuals gain access to higher education opportunities abroad.”

To this point, perhaps the wider availability of compelling, more affordable options outside the West is an opportunity to expand academic mobility to more than just that 3%.

For additional background, please see:

• “From the Big Four to the Big Fourteen”
• “Which countries will contribute the most to global student mobility in 2030?”
• “Research shows link between study abroad and poverty alleviation”
• “Beyond the Big Four: How demand for study abroad is shifting to destinations in Asia and Europe”

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The results of the ninth Emerging Futures survey suggest major implications for governments and institutions alike. They show a distinct shift in students’ approach to choosing where in the world to study.

IDP notes: “While employability, post-study work opportunities, and affordability remain core drivers, EF9 shows students are now screening options more proactively, often ruling out destinations sooner due to visa costs, policy uncertainty, or perceived barriers to entry.”

The survey was conducted between early-March and late-April of 2026 among over 5,800 prospective and current students in 118 countries.

Demand remains high for Big Four destinations

The survey found that Australia (21%), the UK (19%), and the US and Canada (14%) remain the preferred countries in which to study. A main reason for this is that students believe there will be a high return-on-investment (ROI) from studying in those countries, especially with regards to career prospects.

Visa barriers impact perceived ROI

Despite their appeal, Big Four destinations are currently associated with uncertain, unfair, or increasingly restrictive immigration policies. Students are aware that:

• The likelihood of obtaining a visa for the US and Canada is lower than in the past (especially for students from some regions).
• Work and immigration rights are narrowing for international graduates in the US.
• ´ˇłÜ˛őłŮ°ů˛ą±ôľ±˛ąâ€™s non-refundable visa application fee and financial requirements are the most expensive across all destinations.
• The UK government will reduce its popular post-study work stream, the Graduate Route, to 18 months for undergraduate and master’s students in 2027, and there are for further tightening of work and immigration rights.

Developments such as these are jeopardising the perceived ROI of studying in a Big Four country. If a student is doubtful they can pay for or obtain a visa, and if they see evidence of post-study work rights shrinking, they are naturally more likely to think twice about their decisions. The survey results show that this uncertainty is manifesting in several ways:

• Earlier influence: Students are exploring visa settings before or alongside their research on traditional “pull” factors such as programme availability, costs of study/living, rankings, reputation, etc. More than 4 in 10 said that the financial requirements of a visa application, the cost of applying for a visa, and the post-study work opportunities attached to a visa exert a strong influence on their choice of study destination.

IDP says: “Visa concerns are occurring earlier as prospects weigh the true cost to arrive [and] the likelihood of visa approval and employment pathways, [which points] to a strong focus on the value of their investment of an overseas degree.”

• Dramatic effect: Visa issues are a major reason that some students decide to give up their goal of studying abroad. Of students who said they have decided not to study abroad, more than a quarter said it was because the cost of a student visa is too high (27%) or because securing a visa is too difficult (26%).

• A wider net: More than three-quarters of students (78%) are now weighing multiple countries before committing, up from 66% in October 2024.

Visa settings as deterrent

IDP notes: “[The survey findings] reflect the cumulative impact of increasingly restrictive visa policies, and act as a warning sign to all destinations that sustained policy tightening can rapidly shift student preferences.”

Simon Emmett, Chief Partner Officer of IDP Education, said:

“Students are behaving more like savvy consumers, comparing destinations based on the return on their investment. If students can’t quickly understand whether they’re likely to qualify, what they’ll need to show and what it will cost up front, they will eliminate destinations sooner or delay plans altogether ….

“International students are planning the biggest chapter of their lives while navigating major hurdles. Governments of countries that want to attract the highest quality students should help them understand visa decisions, not add uncertainty that drives good students elsewhere.”

Mr Emmett called for collaboration across the sector and emphasised the collective need to “lift confidence in international education through greater transparency and accountability, better data on outcomes and visa trends, and enhanced compliance and early warning signals that protect students and support sustainable growth.”

Implications for institutions

The IDP research underlines the importance of strong communications, website content, and social media posts clarifying visa information for international students. If partnering with agents, institutions will also need to make sure they are constantly equipping agents with the most current, accurate information about immigration rules. In an era where students’ confidence in traditional study abroad destinations is under pressure, there is no room for error in these communications.

What’s more, there is a chance to build stronger relationships with students by stepping in to provide trusted information when it may be difficult to find otherwise.

For additional background, please see:

• “A common challenge: Strengthening student confidence in the ROI of study abroad”
• “What students want: The top decision factors for study abroad”

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These trends are highlighted in results from the most recent by NAFSA, Oxford Test of English, and Studyportals. The survey asked respondents from over 254 universities across 36 countries about new international enrolments in the January–March 2026 intake; perceived barriers to enrolling students; and recruitment strategies.

The research found that universities in the Big Four are struggling with policy-induced enrolment pressures, but it also revealed that they are adapting recruitment strategies for their current context. Edwin van Rest, CEO of Studyportals, commented: “Universities that are agile, proactive and supportive of students are much better positioned to absorb visa disruption and sustain enrolment.”

About the research findings

The survey sample was heavily weighted towards the US, with 149 universities from the US compared with 39 in Europe, 24 in the UK, 13 in Canada, 9 from Australia, and 9 from the Asia-Pacific region (excluding Australia). In all, about three-quarters of responding universities were in the Big Four. For this reason, the regional breakdowns in the survey report are especially valuable.

There was also a Global Enrolment Benchmark Survey wave in January to March 2025. While apples-to-apples comparisons between the early-2025 and early-2026 waves cannot be made because of the waves’ slightly different samples, broad trends are definitely apparent.

New undergraduate enrolments

As shown in Chart 1 below, 69% of Canadian institutions reported fewer undergraduate students in the January 2026 intake. Considered alongside the 82% that reported a drop in the Q1 2025 survey wave, this marks two years of severe contraction.

In Q1 2026, 62% of US universities welcomed fewer new undergraduate students, a greater proportion than the 48% reporting the same in Q1 2025. This suggests that recruitment challenges have intensified in the US over the past year.

The undergraduate enrolment situation in Australia and the UK appears less dire. Under half of Australian (44%) institutions reported a falloff, and just as many (44%) said they had welcomed more new international students. The picture was more balanced in the UK, with 42% saying commencements were down, 37% reporting stability, and 21% enrolling more new students.

Meanwhile, Asian and European institutions are faring very well. Fully 82% of Asian institutions saw more new undergraduate students in Q1 2026 than in Q1 2025, and none of them reported drops. In Europe, almost half (47%) of responding universities reported a year-over-year increase, which is nearly double the proportion reporting a decline (25%).

Graduate trends

As shown in Chart 2 (below), around two-thirds of Australian, British, and American universities reported lower international postgraduate commencements in January 2026. The 2026 trend is worse for British institutions than in 2025, when only half said commencements were down, but it is stable in the US.

Canadian institutions are grappling with further deterioration at the postgraduate level in 2026. Fully 8 in 10 (80%) institutions reported declines (up from 71% in Q1 2025), and none reported increases.

Meanwhile, over half of Asian universities (55%) reported postgraduate commencement gains, as did 43% of European institutions.

Significant differences in Q1 2025 and Q1 2026 survey results

Chart 3 (below) shows the difference in average reported commencements between Q1 2025 and Q1 2026. European and Asian institutions welcomed considerably more new students in Q1 2026, especially at the bachelor’s level. Masters’ commencements were down significantly in Australia. In Canada and the US, intakes at both levels worsened considerably. Canadian undergraduate programmes were particularly affected, while in the US, the most severe reduction was at the master’s level. While less pronounced than in North America, a downward trend is also evident in the UK at both levels.

The most pressing issues

An overwhelming majority of respondents in the Big Four cited restrictive policies as the biggest obstacle they face (Chart 4 below). The full Australian sample (100%) picked this option, as did 84% in both Canada and the US and 71% in the UK. Policies were also the top challenge in Europe, but only 59% chose this response option.

In Asia, the top three cited issues did not include policies at all. Instead, cost of study/living, English-proficiency requirements, and academic requirements were the main challenges for Asian institutions.

What lies ahead

More than 4 in 10 universities in Australia, Canada, and the UK are planning budget cuts in the next 12 months, with over a third saying the same in the US (Chart 5 below). Close to a quarter of institutions in Australia and Canada are also planning to cut staff.

The relatively supportive policy environments in which Asian and European institutions are recruiting are reflected in their plans. Fully 64% of Asian institutions have more aggressive enrolment goals, as do 31% in Europe. In Asia, more than half (55%) intend to use more AI in their operations, and 26% of European institutions do as well. The mindset is clearly one of growth, while Big Four universities have their hands full with managing tough policy contexts and associated budget and staff cuts.

Across the board, however, institutions see diversification as a necessity this year (the most cited sample-wide priority at 37%).

Sector resilience and top strategies

The top strategies being used by universities to boost international enrolments are highlighted in Chart 6, below. Introducing new programmes; diversifying/expanding geographically; executing strong branding/marketing; and offering financial incentives and scholarships were the most cited institution-led initiatives.

In addition, a notable proportion of universities reported that they had introduced January start dates to “manage visa unpredictability and to capture students who would otherwise defer or drop out of the cycle.” The report notes:

“One global recruitment calendar rarely works well for all markets. Understanding demand by origin country can help to prioritise marketing and recruitment activities. Certain countries show a notably stronger preference for the January to March intake than their peers elsewhere.”

Of the Q1 2026 findings, Dr Fanta Aw, Executive Director and CEO of NAFSA, commented: “Despite an increasingly uncertain policy environment, the survey shows that institutions willing to innovate and adapt can still create meaningful pathways for student success and access …. Institutions can and must exercise greater agency to counter serious external forces.”

The study report adds:

“The right response to a shifting landscape is not to wait it out. It is to understand it better and move faster. Student demand for international education remains strong. The institutions that will capture it are the ones that treat uncertainty not as a reason to pause, but as a reason to think differently.”

For additional background, please see:

• “From the Big Four to the Big Fourteen”
• “Canada and the US are losing international student enrolments to Europe and Asia”
• “The four key trends that will shape international student mobility for the next decade”

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The latter development is bound to have widening impacts across the world as the strait is a notably narrow maritime passage through which approximately 20% of the world’s daily oil and liquefied natural gas shipments flow. A closure of any duration will cause supply chain shortages and surging energy prices, and could even threaten global economic stability.

It has been hard not to notice the early projections of that widening economic instability over the past couple of weeks. In the , for example, “When the war in Iran started…Asia expected to see serious, gradual impacts from losing access to a huge portion of the world’s oil and gas. But the conflict’s economic and social impacts have hit the region harder and faster than officials and experts expected.”

Or from : “Losing almost 20% of global oil supply leads to shortages, rationing, with effects that go far beyond demand destruction from higher prices. Around two-thirds of global oil consumption is transport-related, and diesel is the backbone of commercial logistics, agriculture, and parts of industry, so disruption would hit the economy through multiple channels.”

It seems clear that those impacts will be felt unevenly, with some global regions, notably Asia, more impacted as those supply chains and energy supplies are more directly affected by a disruption in Gulf shipping. Other regions, such as North America, are expected to be less affected. What is clear, however, is that such a significant change in global energy supply will unleash a new type of inflationary pressure on global markets, as rising fuel costs drive up prices across the global economy.

Those price effects have been particularly visible over the past month with respect to air travel. Around the world, carriers are adding fuel surcharges or otherwise raising fares to keep pace with rising fuel costs. Some are also cutting back on routes to better ensure that flights operate closer to capacity. There are also a growing number of reports projecting a shortage in jet fuel for at least this quarter and next, which could lead to further flight reductions and will only heighten the upward pressure on airfares.

“Much of the world’s jet fuel is refined in Asia; South Korea is the world’s No. 1 exporter,” reports . “But much of the crude that Asian countries use to make jet fuel comes from the Middle East…Even if the strait does reopen for good, and soon, it will take weeks for oil and jet fuel trapped by the strait’s closure to reach customers in Europe and Asia.”

To make that a little more concrete, the benchmark European jet fuel price for the week ending 24 April was US$1,478 per tonne, which compares to the per-tonne rate of US$831 before the war began. Airline pricing policy is changing quickly as a result, with carriers often levying fixed or route-specific fuel surcharges. In some cases, airfares have roughly doubled (or more) since February.

On top of those direct impacts of rising fuel costs and/or shortages of jet fuel, tens of thousands of flights have been cancelled or rerouted around key air travel hubs in the Gulf region, further adding to the disruption and upward pressure on airfares.

How are students affected?

It is too early to say how that global pricing disruption, or the prospect of a deepening economic impact, will impact student mobility.

Based on historical patterns, we might imagine that students travelling for longer-term travel – such as a degree programme or K-12 studies of a year or more – are less likely to be deterred in their study plans this year. But those same historical patterns suggest that enrolment in shorter-term courses, such as summer language programmes, could be more heavily affected.

When asked for their perspective on an EnglishUSA online forum, member language schools reported a mixed outlook for the summer season. “No one has explicitly referenced high airfare as a reason for not enrolling in courses this summer,” said one. “One partner did mention higher flight costs than anticipated, but that did not impact plans to attend our summer sessions. We’ve also had some partners indirectly reference ‘global affairs’ as a reason for not sending students this year, without mentioning flights specifically.”

“One of our partners cited the war, rising costs, and current global uncertainty as their reason for backing out of a summer special programme,” said another. “So, yes, we are seeing a negative impact.”

English UK Chief Executive Jodie Gray adds, “We have heard anecdotal reports from members that they’re seeing some cancellations from individual students/groups, and there’s concern that the situation may worsen as we move towards the summer.

English UK is running a monthly barometer of our members to monitor the impact of the war in the Middle East on their businesses. At this time of year, it’s very much a tipping point. There is a sense of uncertainty about what will unfold over the coming months as we head into the crucial summer season. What is clear is that the UK ELT sector is very much open for business as normal.”

For additional background, please see:

• “As Iran retaliates across the Middle East, schools close, students worry, and institutions reassess transnational education“

The post How will the war in Iran impact international student mobility? appeared first on şÚÁĎąŮÍř Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

Of its research, the British Council notes:

“The findings from multiple metrics suggest that in an increasingly unstable, multipolar world, there is a growing preference among young people for predictability, security, and capability – qualities increasingly associated with non-Western governance models – over the perceived instability, paralysis and polarisation of many Western democracies.”

Of the study destinations becoming more attractive to youth, several are authoritarian, which dovetails with another major study that found that young people are to non-democratic governance. The Big Four remain in the lead, but they are losing ground, not least because of less welcoming immigration settings than in the past – particularly for students from the Global South.

About the research

The British Council’s 2025 Global Perceptions survey sample was over 20,000 youth aged 18–34 in G20 countries excluding Russia. A key aim was determining how the UK stacks up against other countries in terms of attractiveness, trust, perceptions of the economy and government, and as a study abroad destination.

The 2025 QS Global Student Flows report drew on responses from over 70,000 students across 191 countries. Otherwise, QS says it “maps and forecasts international student mobility using an open source framework, flow mapping technology, and scenario-based forecasting.”

Leaders and climbers

The British Council survey asked respondents about the overall attractiveness of countries based on a number of metrics. Chart 1 (below) shows Japan, Italy, and the UK are in the lead, but all have lost some ground. Japan is almost stable since 2016 (down 1 percentage point), but Italy and the UK have lost -5 and -6 percentage points, respectively. The UK leads in “trust in government,” but has fallen slightly (-1) while Japan is #2 and has gained +5 percentage points.

Meanwhile, of the five “climbers” (countries that gained the most in attractiveness since 2016), four are in Asia (South Korea, °ŐĂĽ°ů°ěľ±˛â±đ, China, and Indonesia), with Saudi Arabia rounding out the top five.

Interestingly, of the five climbers, two are non-democratic (China and Saudi Arabia), and one is increasingly authoritarian (°ŐĂĽ°ů°ěľ±˛â±đ). All three of those countries have “strongman” leaders who have been in power for some time. China’s President Xi Jinping has held the presidency since 2013; Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman has led since 2017, following his father, Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud; and °ŐĂĽ°ů°ěľ±˛â±đ’s President Recep Tayyip ErdoÄźan has held power since 2014.

What’s more, even Russia makes the top 10 for attractiveness today (see Chart 2, below), bouncing back from its ranking of #18 when it invaded Ukraine to #10 in 2025. Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has been in place since 1999 and rules with an iron fist.

The British Council notes:

“The top ten for overall attractiveness has long been dominated by rich, liberal, democratic capitalist states. The UK, Japan, and Italy have consistently held leading positions over the past decade. But that dominance is no longer assured: Australia, Canada, and the United States have all seen their rankings decline over time, with the risk that one or more may soon fall out of the top ten.”

QS also finds a gravitation to non-Western countries

There may be a connection between these changes in attractiveness and students’ rapidly growing interest in alternative destinations. In publishing its 2025 Global Student Flows report, QS interviewed Matthew Ramsey, Director of University Affairs at the University of British Columbia, who said:

“We now live in a more uncertain global environment. This uncertainty has an impact on the younger generation, and especially those who may consider studying outside of their home country.”

The Global Student Flows report projects that by 2030, °ŐĂĽ°ů°ěľ±˛â±đ, the United Arab Emirates, Malaysia, and Japan will gain more share of international students, while the combined market share of the Big Four is projected to drop from 40% to 35%.

High visa rejection rates will ripple outside of international education

High visa rejection rates in Australia, Canada, and the US for African and South Asian students will have a huge impact on future global student mobility – and countries’ soft power. QS interviewed Hans de Wit, a Distinguished Fellow at the Center for International Higher Education at Boston College, who said:

“We see a reduction in South-North mobility and an increase in South-South mobility … Africa is the new battlefield, with students moving within the region and to Asia and the Middle East.”

The losses incurred by traditional leaders in attractiveness such as Canada and the US coincide with their extremely high visa rejection rates of students from Global South countries. For example:

• In 2025, nearly two-thirds (64%) of all F-1 visa applications from African students were rejected. Many Asian students were even more likely to be refused: India: 61%; Pakistan: 71%; Bangladesh: 73%; Nepal: 81%; and Afghanistan: 81%.

• The latest African-only study permit rejection rate data published by the Canadian government in 2023 found that over 60% of African students were refused in Canada. And in 2025, the refusal rate for Indian students was 74%.

With rejection rates like these, the ability of the US and Canada to build soft power and partnerships with the Global South is greatly diminished. The introduction to the British Council’s Global Perceptions report states:

“[Youth perceptions] influence personal choices – like where to study, where to build a business, or which partnerships to pursue. But they also shape the choices of governments, businesses, and international organisations. Whether negotiating trade deals, collaborating on climate action, or sharing intelligence, trust is the foundation of international cooperation.”

The UK has also lost ground

The British Council found that of the top 5 study destinations, the UK has lost considerable ground (see Chart 3 below), and it notes that this trend has wide implications:

“The UK has long benefitted from a strong soft power position. But … this advantage is slipping. While the UK remains attractive and trusted, its relative standing among G20 nations is under pressure. This poses a direct challenge to its international influence, long-term security, and economic prosperity. Crucially, soft power is no longer the preserve of a few traditional powers. Emerging players are actively vying to become the next “soft power superpower.” The competition is intensifying – and the field is levelling. In this new race, complacency is costly. If the UK is to maintain its edge, it must act decisively, strategically, and with purpose.”

One finding in particular confirms the strong linkages between economic competitiveness, soft power and study abroad: youth respondents saying they studied in the UK were four times more likely to say they intend to do business or trade with the UK in the future than those who had not.

Practical rather than philosophical

For students from the Global South aiming to improve their and their families’ lives, study abroad offers the chance of earning globally recognised degrees, sending money home, and accessing often better educational systems than exist in their own countries. If they can’t get into a Big Four destination, they have increasingly attractive alternatives.

Over time, the more international students who study outside the West, the more talent, trade, and soft power will be concentrated in those regions.

For additional background, please see:

• “From the Big Four to the Big Fourteen”
• “Visa rejections climb in the US for international students from key markets including India“
• “Australia: Student visa refusal rates reach record high amid weakening demand from China“
• “Narrowing bands of compliance: How the UK’s new RAG system will impact international student recruitment“

The post New research finds global youth increasingly drawn to non-Western governance models and study destinations appeared first on şÚÁĎąŮÍř Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

The report’s introduction notes that “regions that were once seen primarily as sources of outbound demand are now positioning themselves as destinations in their own right.” We can see that in international education strategies, rising foreign enrolments, and growth targets in countries such as Japan and South Korea.

A key strength for Asia is that it now collectively offers 20,000 English-taught programmes (ETPs), which allows Asian institutions to:

• Attract demand from students who might otherwise be deterred by language barriers;
• Compete more effectively with the Big Four destinations.

In addition, Asia (1) hosts the most transnational campuses and partnerships of any region, and (2) now has almost 600 institutions in the major world university rankings.

Taken together, this means that Asia is highly competitive on many fronts, including:

• Proximity to key regional source markets;
• Expanding work rights;
• Lower tuition and living costs;
• Highly ranked institutions;
• English-language programmes.

As the report notes, these attractions are perfectly timed for “students who are increasingly weighing value-for-money, online/blended learning, and clear career pathways in their decision-making.”

It is not coincidental that as countries such as China, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and Malaysia gain Asian enrolments, Australia, Canada, the UK, and US are losing traction in many Asian markets. Top origin markets for Asian destinations include India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and several others.

Demand by level

Of Asian destinations, Japan and China are attracting most student interest, as demonstrated in Studyportals pageviews. Japan is the leader for master’s degrees, while Chinese bachelor’s programmes are rapidly gaining interest (+33% between 2023 and 2025). Vietnam has also gained share of student demand, up 101% for bachelor’s programmes. However, demand has weakened over the past couple of years for Singapore and South Korea.

Supply dynamics

Changes in supply on English-taught programmes (ETPs) can be signals of a destination’s ambition of becoming a study hub. For example, India expanded its supply of both bachelor’s (+54%) and master’s programmes (+53%) between 2023 and 2025. Its international enrolment target is 200,000 by 2030, up from just over 72,000 right now.

Other countries increasing their ETP supply include Singapore, Sri Lanka, and Brunei.

Important source markets

Across Asia, the most important sources of students for bachelor’s programmes include Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan, which the report says, “underscores the pull of regional proximity, affordability, and growing ETP availability across Asia.” At the master’s level, demand is most pronounced from India, but growth in demand is highest in Bangladesh and Pakistan.

Most popular programmes

As in other destinations, students are gravitating to STEM studies. Demand for these programmes offered in Asia outpaces supply. Other disciplines could stand to attract more students.

Regional perspective

The Studyportals/British Council report considers “Asia to be a consolidated destination, MENA as having policy-driven momentum, and Latin America having a more cautious trajectory.” These regions, as well as Europe, are increasingly on the radar of the world’s international students. The report concludes:

“This continuous recalibration is redrawing the map of international education and raising important questions about how institutions and governments can remain competitive.”

For additional information, please see:

• “Canada and India deepen educational ties; India repositions as an equal player in international education”
• “Inbound, outbound, and transnational: the landscape for international education in China continues to evolve”
• “Japan surpassed its foreign enrolment target of 400,000 in 2025”

The post Supply and demand for international higher education increasingly aligned in Asia appeared first on şÚÁĎąŮÍř Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.