It has set the National Planning Level (NPL), its system for controlling the flow of foreign students into universities and vocational (VET) education providers, at 295,000 new student spaces distributed across those institutions. This is the same number as last year, and the government considers this a continuation of a managed growth approach that “has been effective in returning student numbers to a more sustainable level in 2025, and so far in 2026.”

For background, the NPL system dictates that visa applications are processed normally for an institution that fills up to 80% of their allotted new student spaces. Beyond that 80% threshold, visa processing slows for that institution relative to others that stay within the threshold. The system aims to curtail over-aggressive international recruitment.

The NPL, however, is not the only way in which the government is constraining growth. On top of visa processing controls, a range of other recent policies make it more difficult for international students to choose Australia as a study destination. These include:

• Visa application fees that have risen repeatedly over the past couple of years and which now stand at AU$2,500 for a study visa and AU$5,750 for a post-study work visa. These are the highest in the world, and they are non-refundable for students who end up being rejected.

• High visa rejection rates, especially for Indians, Bangladeshis, and Nepalis.

The government’s satisfaction with how the National Planning Level is working obscures the fact that higher fees and rejection rates are causing international student demand to fall well below what might be considered “sustainable.” Some Australia institutions are not able to reach their allocation levels due to declining volumes of applications and enrolments.

The following chart shows trends in commencements (new student arrivals) over time, and it illustrates the sharp decreases from 2023–2025.

What is the real target?

from minister of education Jason Clare, assistant minister for international education Julian Hill, and skills minister Andrew Giles acknowledges:

“Current tracking indicates international student commencements are on track to be below the NPL for both 2026 and 2027. Commencements in 2026 are down 8 per cent compared to the same period in 2025, and 13 per cent lower than 2019.”

So, the NPL may be set at 295,000 in 2026 and 2027 – but the fact that commencements are coming in well below that threshold appears not to be an issue for the government. This seems quite likely given the follow-up statement in the press release:

“The decision to freeze the NPL at current levels accompanies adjustments to student visa fees.”

Mr Clare, Mr Hill, and Mr Giles all issued comments about the 2027 arrangements:

• Mr Clare: “International education is an incredibly important export industry for Australia, but we need to manage it sustainably. This is about making sure international education supports students, universities and the national interest.”

• Mr Hill: “The Albanese Government inherited a mess from the Liberals in 2022, with unsustainably high growth in student numbers in the least reputable parts of the sector and student visas being misused by crooks and shonks. The Government will not back off from managing the size and the shape of the onshore international student market and ongoing moderation in student numbers towards a more sustainable sector. Australia continues to welcome genuine international students seeking a premium Australian education which is great for our unis, domestic students and research.”

• Mr Giles: “International VET strengthens outcomes for students and supports our workforce, while deepening valuable global partnerships. Today’s announcement provides certainty for the international VET sector, enabling it to continue delivering sustainable growth and high-quality skills outcomes.”

Universities Australia Chief Executive Officer Luke Sheehy issued his own statement on behalf of the sector:

“Sustainability and integrity matter, and universities support both. Keeping new overseas commencements steady gives the sector something to plan around, but it is a long way from the sustainable, managed growth the government promised two years ago.

“Today’s announcement confirms there will be no growth next year. We recognise this may be appropriate in the current context, but the bigger problem is that the policy settings behind the number are making even this steady target harder to reach.

“If the government keeps making Australia more expensive and more difficult for genuine students to choose, we’re going to fall short – and we’re already seeing that risk emerge.

“That’s bad for our sector and Australia. It means fewer skilled workers, weaker productivity and a $55 billion export sector supporting 250,000 jobs put at risk.

“Many universities, particularly in regional and outer suburban Australia, are ready, willing and able to welcome more international students.

“International education is one of Australia’s great success stories, but it’s being steadily eroded by policies that do not serve our universities, our economy or our skills needs.

“A big number on paper means little if the policies behind it make it harder to deliver in practice.
That’s the contradiction at the heart of the current approach. The government says it wants almost 300,000 new international students, while keeping in place policies that make that harder to achieve.

“Unless the broader settings change, the 2027 allocation risks being just another number – not a plan that delivers the skills, jobs and growth Australia needs.”

More details about the NPL arrangements for 2027

None of the education providers subject to the NPL will receive fewer applications in 2027 than in 2026

The following are exempted from the NPL’s allocations:

• Schools
• Students studying standalone ELICOS courses
• Higher degree by research students
• Non-award students, including short term exchange students
• Students studying at TAFE and students enrolled in VET courses at Dual Sector public universities
• Students awarded certain scholarships including from foreign governments, multilateral organisations and Australian governments
• Students that are part of certain Australian Transnational Education (TNE) arrangements in higher education or VET approved by the Department of Education or the Department of Employment and Workplace Relations
• Students from the Pacific and Timor-Leste
• Students in pilot training courses
• International students transitioning from secondary school studies in Australia to tertiary study (higher education or VET)
• Students transitioning from embedded pathway providers or TAFE institutes to affiliated publicly funded universities
• Students transferring providers as a direct result of a provider closing or otherwise being unable to continue training.

For additional background, please see:

• “Australia: Multiple data indicators signal further declines ahead for international student numbers”
• “Surprise hike in international student visa application fees ‘a direct hit to Australia’s competitiveness’”
• “Australia: Latest enrolment data challenges the government’s assertion of stability for international education this year”

The post Australia: As visa applications from foreign students fall, the government has set the national target for new international students in 2027 appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

All sub-sectors are affected, with – non-refundable – visa application fees rising as follows:

• Student visa application fee for higher education and vocational (VET) studies (subclass 500): AU$2,000 to AU$2,500, unless students are from ASEAN countries (AU$2,050)
• Student visa fee for English-language studies (ELICOS): AU$2,000 to AU$2,050
• Temporary Graduate Visa 485 (for post-study work): AU$4,600 to AU$5,750
• Partner visa: AU$9,365 to AU$11,710

In addition, the minimum salary threshold for employer-sponsored work visas increased from AU$76,515 to AU$79,499, and the specialist skills income threshold moved from AU$141,210 to AU$146,717.

The government’s announcement has prompted a universal response of shock and dismay across Australia’s international education sector, with many stakeholders warning that Australia’s education brand is now at a deep disadvantage compared with other major destinations.

Vicki Thomson, chief executive of The Group of Eight (representing eight of Australia’s leading research universities), said:

“This is not just a visa fee increase. It is a direct hit to Australia’s competitiveness, skills pipeline and international standing.”

Repeated fee hikes, and much more expensive

As it stands, the AU$2,500 student visa application fee for higher education and VET compares to about the following fees for equivalent visa classes:

• AU$775 for the US
• AU$935 for the UK
• AU$240 for Canada
• AU$790 for New Zealand

Australia’s visa fees have been repeatedly increased by the Labor government between 2022 and 2026 with little to no warning or consultation. If we look just at 2022 fees and 2026 fees (rather than considering several increases in between these years):

• The student visa application fee has risen by +285%
• The temporary graduate (work) application fee has risen by +148%
• The partner application fee has risen by +45%

By contrast, in Canada, there has been no increase in the study permit application fee since 2022. Nor has the US government increased the application fee for F-1/M-1/J-1 visas in that time frame. The UK has had two hikes since 2022, but the percentage change between 2022 and 2026 is only about +15%.

Comparing 2022 and 2026 is one thing, but using a shorter-term lens is at least as startling since it shows just how much international students and education providers in Australia have had to deal with in the space of one year: a +25% increase for study visas (higher education and VET) and a +25% increase for work visas.

While the visa application fee for ELICOS went up less drastically than for other sectors this time (AU$2,000 to AU$2,050), the fee was already so high at AU$2,000 that it has tanked demand for English-language studies in Australia. Ian Aird, CEO of English Australia, says:

“No announcement was made of the decision to hike these visa fees – a decision clearly reached weeks if not months ago. There was no discussion with the sector to consider the likely impacts of these changes. Having been on the phone to members much of the day, it is important to acknowledge the frustration, disappointment, even heartbreak that many of our members are feeling at this news.

“It’s notable that ELICOS has been given a $50 fee increase, not the full $500 increase. It’s a small mercy when the $2,000 fee has already demonstrably decimated the sector. By increasing the student visa application charge for ELICOS by $50, the government has signalled that it is able to differentiate the visa application charge by sector, despite having stated multiple times over the last 18 months that this was not possible, that the government’s computer systems were not able to manage it. However, it also signals that this government does not wish to address the damage done to the ELICOS sector by charging the highest visa application charge in the world, even though so many Australians have and continue to lose their jobs due to this fee increase.”

The “non-refundable” part of the story

The impact of escalating visa costs is compounded by extremely high visa refusal rates for students from a number of markets. Shorter courses – especially in ELICOS – are the most affected by both soaring visa application fees and rejection rates, since applying for an Australian study visa is now roughly as expensive as a short English-language course of 10 weeks. It is not difficult to see why visa application fee hikes over the past couple of years have led to commencements in English-language teaching programmes falling by -40% in 2025 compared with 2024. It is just too risky for many students to apply for a visa for these courses.

Mr Aird points out that the fee hikes are not just turning prospective students away, but they are also destroying the livelihoods of Australians working in ELICOS and economic sectors that benefit from international student spending:

“[The increases] come without care for the Australians who will lose their jobs or the Australian businesses it will destroy – and not just in the education sector. ELICOS students contribute significantly to international tourism, retail, hospitality. The damage done by past visa fee hikes has seen ELICOS numbers fall 60% to 20-year lows costing 1000s of Aussie’s their livelihoods. This new fee increase will drive that further.”

The effect on current international students

In the fall of 2023, IDP Education’s Emerging Futures survey found that in the span of just a few months, Australia had drawn even with Canada as the most preferred destination of the Big Four – largely as a result of the work opportunities it offered international students. So much has changed since then, but what hasn’t changed is that a huge part of Australia’s draw is its post-study work visa.

Writing on , Weihong Liang, president of the International Students Representative Council of Australia (ISRC), spoke of how current international students will be affected by the abrupt announcement of the increased cost of the Temporary Graduate visa:

“For students in their final semester, this is not an abstract policy adjustment. It is a sudden financial burden imposed at the point where they have the least room to change their plans.

“Many of these students came to Australia two or three years ago. They were told that Australia welcomed international talent. Post-study work rights were widely presented as part of Australia’s international education offer. Students made major life decisions, paid substantial tuition fees, moved countries, and built their future plans around the policy settings available at the time.

“Now, after they have already committed, the cost of that pathway has increased dramatically — twice in four months. At the same time, Australia continues to recruit international students globally.

“Governments have the right to change migration policy. But fair policy implementation requires notice, transition arrangements, and respect for those who have already made decisions in good faith.”

Also on , Kaixin Ji, a PhD student specialising in human-centered AI said:

“As an international student who has studied and lived in Australia for 12 years, I feel deeply disappointed and betrayed by this country. I completed my bachelor’s and master’s degrees in IT, and I recently obtained my PhD in Computer Science. Yet after graduation, I have struggled to find a job in either industry or academia. I am also unable to apply for permanent residency because I have not had the required “skilled work” experience for skills assessment.

“This means I have to apply for the Graduate Work (485) visa — a visa that has increased twice this year and now costs A$5,750, with no prior notice … This sudden fee increase may force me to ask my parents for financial help, which feels deeply painful and humiliating as a grown adult. Australia needs to ask whether this is a fair way to treat the people it actively encouraged to come, study, work, and contribute.”

Seeming disregard for the sector

Across the sector, stakeholders have raised concerns about the government’s approach to international education. In an email to ���Ϲ��� Monitor, International Education Association of Australia (IEAA) CEO Phil Honeywood said:

“Australia’s competitor study destination countries will be celebrating today at our market share’s expense. With no consultation and no phase-in period, all visa categories have been increased overnight by approximately 25% …

“The official excuse from our government [for the hikes] is that additional funds are required to pay for national security budget blowouts. However, our beleaguered sector is fed up with such excuses as we are increasingly being seen as just a cash cow for non-related budget issues.”

Felix Pirie, CEO of the (ITECA), said:

“As has become the norm, this was done without sector consultation or engagement as to the likely impacts. It is difficult to build trust when surprises like this have direct and damaging effects on businesses, students, and international partners.”

Universities Australia CEO Luke Sheehy wrote about :

“For years, governments encouraged universities to build this sector because they recognised it as a national asset. The same governments that encouraged universities to build this success are now dismantling it, one decision at a time.

“Today’s fee hike doesn’t stand alone. It comes on top of higher visa refusal rates, policy uncertainty and a series of decisions that have made Australia a less attractive destination.

“Australia needs a stable, competitive international education policy that recognises this sector for what it is – one of our greatest national assets.”

For additional background, please see:

• “Multiple data indicators signal further declines ahead for international student numbers”
• “Australia: Multiple data indicators signal further declines ahead for international student numbers“

The post Surprise hike in international student visa application fees “a direct hit to Australia’s competitiveness” appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

It is no coincidence that the Key Five are all emerging countries in the Global South, where large proportions of students are open to emigrating, temporarily or permanently, because of limited local opportunities. This makes immigration officials tend to question whether study visa applicants are genuine students – i.e., interested in quality education, a high-skilled job, and remaining compliant with visa conditions – or individuals with little intent to study and great intent to migrate in any way they can. Unfortunately, many genuine students from the Global South are disadvantaged in their applications because of where they are from.

The impact of the visa rejection trend for students from emerging economies in Asia and Africa could be enormous across the global international education landscape – and beyond. Already, it is spurring fewer visa grants, reduced recruiting in high-risk markets, and more withdrawals from students eager to avoid a rejection on their student profile. Not surprisingly, commencements are trending down in leading study destinations, and this will pressure overall enrolments in the years ahead.

In this article, we will look at Key Five origin countries with regards to:

• Their importance to overall enrolments across the Big Four;
• Recent study visa rejection rates;
• Commencement trends (i.e., the volume of new students provided a study visa allowing them to enrol in a Big Four education institution).

Contribution to overall international student numbers

According to the most recent available enrolment data, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Nigeria, and Pakistan compose anywhere from 30% to 40%+ of the entire international student body in Big Four destinations.

Visa rejection rates for the Key Five

Having looked at the huge presence of Key Five students in the total international student populations of the Big Four, we’ll turn to recent visa refusal trends (where official data are available).

Bangladesh: Nearly three-quarters (73%) of Bangladeshi applicants for US F-1 visas were turned away in 2025. Bangladeshi students have in recent years been very likely to receive a visa for Australia (about a 5% rejection rate in 2024/25), but in February 2026, more than half (51%) of offshore applicants from Bangladesh were refused.

India: Indian students, who represent either the #1 or #2 source market across the Big Four, are now quite likely to be refused a study visa in those destinations. Rejection rates were 61% in the US (2025), 80% in Canada (Q2 2025), and 60% in Australia (February 2026). While only 7.5% were denied a sponsored study visa in the UK in Q4 2025–Q1 2026, this this was up from less than 4% in winter 2024/25.

Nepal: More than 8 in 10 (81%) Nepali applicants were rejected for a US F-1 visa in 2025, and in February 2026, the Australian study visa rejection rate for Nepal soared to 65%. Interestingly, Nepali students were more likely to be approved for a UK sponsored study visa in winter 2025/26 than in winter 2024/25, bucking the general trend for emerging markets (see chart below).

Nigeria: Since December 2025, Nigerians have been included in an expanded travel ban announced by the US administration, along with dozens of other countries (mostly in Africa and Asia). In the UK, sponsored study rejections for Nigerian students used to be rare (less than 5%), but in winter 2025/26, 20% of Nigerian applicants were turned away. In Canada, between 70–80% were refused a study permit in in 2025.

Pakistan: More than 70% of Pakistanis were refused an F-1 visa in the US in 2026, and more than 6 in 10 offshore applicants from Pakistan were denied an Australian study visa in February 2026. Like Nigerians, Pakistani students applying for a sponsored study visa in the UK saw their rejection rate spike massively in winter 2025/26: increasing from 5.6% to 41% year-over-year.

These rejection rates for Key Five countries represent an absolutely huge number of potential students turned away.

What is happening to commencements?

Key Five commencements (new student entrants) are falling across the Big Four, with less than a handful of exceptions.
 
A striking example is F-1 visa issuances in the US in July/August of 2024 compared with July/August 2025. The percentages in the table below are based on our analysis of data from the US Department of State. It bears mentioning that in September of 2025 (not shown in the table), F-1 commencements fell further for Bangladesh (-69%), Nepal (-96%), Nigeria (-33%), and Pakistan (-9%) compared with September 2024.

In the UK, the following chart from HESA shows the dramatic drop-off in Indian (turquoise) and Nigerian (navy blue) commencements between 2023/24 and 2024/25: -13% and -33%, respectively. Over the span of two years (2022/23 to 2024/25), the declines were even more serious: -33% for India (126,580 to 94,955) and -132% for Nigeria (53,790 to 23,160).

In Canada, new student arrivals (from all nationalities) fell from 208,750 in 2024 to 115,120 in 2025. In January to April 2026 compared with the same period in 2025, arrivals were down -73% to about 200,000. There is no publicly available government information for specific markets, but the Times of India reports that between January and August 2025, Canada issued just 9,955 new study permits to Indian students.

In Australia, overall commencements fell by about -15% between 2024 and 2025, but this decline was concentrated in sectors other than higher education (the number of new international students in Australian universities edged up slightly in that time period). There was more of a mixed bag of commencement trends for the Key Five than in Canada, the UK, and US. Between 2024 and 2025, Indian and Pakistani commencements fell by -3.5% and -33%, respectively, while Nepal was up +33.5% and Bangladesh +33%.

The implications will stretch beyond international education

Our Key Five markets – Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Nigeria, and Pakistan – can be viewed as roughly representative of what is happening to mobility influences and flows between the Global South and Big Four destinations. They serve to show how immigration policies (and/or policy effects) in the Big Four are affecting demand from top non-EU markets. These policies, especially if they stretch on in time, could lead to:

• An intensification of existing challenges for the operations of hundreds of universities, colleges, and schools across the Big Four. Those institutions are often highly reliant on international student tuition amid declining domestic enrolments and/or public funding. Chinese commencements (which, for decades, were an important source of overall growth) are falling, and emerging markets in Asia and Africa have helped to mitigate the impact.

• Alternative destinations gaining a greater share of the world’s internationally mobile students (this is already happening – see From the Big Four to the Big Fourteen for background).



• A decline in the economic contribution of international education in the Big Four.



• A weakening of innovation and productivity in Big Four economies. India, in particular, contributes a large volume of STEM students and workers to Western nations.



• An erosion of the soft power of the Big Four in the Global South.

Methodological note

Data analyses are based on statistics from:

• The Australian
• (IRCC)
• The UK’s (HESA)
• The in the US

For additional information, please see:

• “UK: International student numbers fall for second year, especially in postgraduate programmes“
• “UK: Sponsored study visa issuances down, rejection rates up, and more“
• “There are more international students in the US than ever in 2025, but commencements are declining“
• “Visa rejections climb in the US for international students from key markets including India“
• “New international student permit approvals for Canada fell below COVID levels in 2025“
• “Australia: Multiple data indicators signal further declines ahead for international student numbers“
• “Australia: Latest enrolment data challenges the government’s assertion of stability for international education this year“

The post What is happening to student mobility flows between the Global South and Global North?  appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

The order dictates that “no applications may be made to the National VET Regulator under section 9 of the Act until after the day 12 months after the day this instrument commences.” The order is in immediate effect and it means that the Australian Skills Quality Authority (ASQA) will not accept applications from new providers or for new courses for a 12-month period beginning 19 May 2026.

The order specifically prevents any new applications for registration in the Commonwealth Register of Institutions and Courses for Overseas Students (CRICOS). CRICOS is Australia’s official government register of education providers and courses that are approved to enrol international students. And The Education Services for Overseas Students (ESOS) Act 2000 requires that any Australian institution enrolling visa-holding foreign students must be registered on CRICOS.

The 18 May order applies to private vocational education and training (VET) providers as well as those in the English Language Intensive Courses for Overseas Students (ELICOS) sector. Public providers, including TAFEs and public universities, are exempt.

In other words, during the year-long freeze, no new private VET or ELICOS providers may be established, nor may existing private-sector providers establish any new courses.

A background brief accompanying the assistant minister’s order explains that there are two exceptions:

“The Suspension will not apply to applications made by any existing provider that relate to adding:

• a location for a course the provider is already registered on CRICOS to deliver
• a course identified as superseded (non-equivalent) on the National Register (www.training.gov.au), where the provider is already registered to deliver the superseded (non-equivalent) course.”

An accompanying statement from Mr Hill says that the freeze is necessary to “provide ASQA with additional time to address sector integrity issues while processing existing applications with a focus on rigour, scrutiny, and integrity.”

The assistant minister draws a direct line in his comments from the order to two substantive government reviews of Australia’s immigration system – the Rapid Review into the Exploitation of Australia’s Visa System (the Nixon Review) and the Migration Review in 2023 – which identified “significant integrity concerns within Australia’s international education system, particularly in the vocational education and training (VET) sector.”

“Suspending new registrations to teach international students VET or English language onshore is not a decision taken lightly and will allow the Government to address integrity concerns about new market entrants and oversaturation in the international VET and ELICOS sectors,” added the Assistant Minister. “Frankly, it raises suspicions when at the same time student numbers in these parts of the sector are moderating the regulator continues to see a rush of new market entrants.”

A blunt instrument

“The Albanese Government has quietly dropped one of the most consequential blows to Australia’s international education sector in years and it landed without warning,” says . “This is not simply a technical regulatory change. It is a deliberate attempt to reshape the international education market to favour public providers while freezing out the private sector…It freezes the entire pipeline of new entrants regardless of quality, innovation, or workforce relevance. It also blocks private providers from diversifying their offerings.”

Ian Pratt, Managing Director at Lexis English, also questioned the government’s approach, noting that, “We now appear to have reached the point where, instead of properly resourcing regulators to assess applications and enforce standards, the solution is simply to stop accepting applications altogether.”

“Instead of empowering the regulator to identify and remove poor operators, the government has chosen a blanket suspension targeting an entire segment of the sector,” he added on LinkedIn. “The genuinely frustrating part is that quality independent providers are not the problem here. Many of the most innovative, student-focused and internationally responsive organisations in Australian education sit within the private sector. These are the providers building niche programmes, responding quickly to employer demand, investing in student experience, and actively supporting regional economies.”

Part of a larger pattern?

The freeze on new CRICOS registrations arrives in the midst of an ongoing political debate around migration levels in Australia. Both the governing and opposition parties have offered policy positions based in part on reducing immigration levels, including with respect to international students.

A statement from Universities Australia Chief Executive Officer Luke Sheehy cautions in response that, “After two years of instability and policy swings, what the sector and students need now is stability, certainty and a clear long-term strategy.

“International students are not the low-hanging fruit both sides of politics are treating them as in the migration debate. Significant cuts to international student numbers would have real consequences for the economy and our universities at a time both are doing it tough.

“Australia cannot afford another race to the bottom driven by stop-start policy settings, political signalling or measures that damage our economy, our universities and our global reputation.”

For additional background, please see:

• “Australia: Multiple data indicators signal further declines ahead for international student numbers“
• “Australia: Student visa refusal rates reach record high amid weakening demand from China“
• “New IDP research shows link between visa uncertainty and the perceived ROI of study abroad“

The post Australia orders a year-long pause on new VET and ELICOS provider registrations appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

The context here is the past three years of new policy settings and greater government intervention to manage student inflows, as well as two successive student visa application fee hikes. As of this writing, the non-refundable fee of AU$2,000 is the highest in the world. The cost of a student visa – and the very real possibility for students from many markets that their application will be refused – is dampening demand, especially for students coming for relatively shorter programmes, such as English-language courses.

Unravelling the data

Presenting the analysis to IEAA members in April 2026, English Australia CEO Ian Aird showcased the importance of clarifying the source, time frame, and implications of often misunderstood data indicators for Australia’s international education sector. For example:

• Enrolments vs. student numbers: In Australia, course enrolments tend to be the main data point presented in international education summaries and covered by media. They are sometimes confused with international student numbers – which are something quite different. Enrolments are always far higher than student numbers because international students often enrol in multiple courses in a given year (e.g., two back-to-back English-language courses of four months each would be counted as two enrolments for a single student).

• Commencements vs. NTAs: General commencement numbers comprise both students coming for the first time to study in Australia and students already in Australia who progress from a completed course to a new course. But “New-to-Australia” (NTA) commencements describe only offshore students enrolling for the first time ever in Australia.

Each of those four indicators – course enrolments, student numbers, commencements, and NTA commencements – tell very different stories. Of the four, enrolments are the least indicative of the current and future state of affairs. Mr Aird explains:

“Both enrolment and commencement figures must be recognised as ‘lag indicators’ in terms of sector health. That is, the enrolments are students who may have started their courses months and sometimes years ago. Even commencements are students who booked, paid for, and were granted visas months before they commence. If a commencement is part of a pathway, it too could have been booked years before it is indicated in the official data.

This means that the majority of 2025 enrolments and many 2025 commencements are students who were not impacted by any of the 2024 changes to the student visa system and government policy.”

Why NTAs are more predictive of future trends

New-to-Australia commencement data offers a stronger indication of international student demand under the current settings – and relatedly, factors either easing or challenging students’ ability to come to Australia. This is because NTA counts represent new students coming into Australia within the recent past (as opposed to enrolments, for example, where data could represent demand from years prior, before the new policy settings came into force). Therefore, the latest NTA data reflects students who have relatively recently:

• Wanted to apply to an institution in Australia
• Decided to pay the fee for a visa application (currently AU$2,000)
• Had their visa approved

When NTAs fall, it suggests that fewer students now consider it worthwhile to apply for a visa and/or more students who are having their visa rejected. A recent decline suggests that the trend will continue unless current circumstances change. Right now, that context is Australia’s extraordinarily expensive visa application fee and high rate of visa refusals.

Recent increases or decreases in the volume of visa applications and in the visa approval rate provide an even better sense of the future trendline for the sector. These can also be divided into applications made in Australia (hence, re-enrolling students) and applications made outside Australia (generally, New-to-Australia students).

Have NTAs fallen?

New-to-Australia commencements have indeed fallen (see Chart 1 below), and this decline coincides with both a lower application volume (Chart 2) and a higher visa refusal rate for students from key markets.

Below, Chart 1 shows that whole-sector NTAs have dropped significantly over the past two years and are significantly lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic. Chart 2 reveals that the number of students submitting visa applications fell by 32% from the post-COVID rebound peak in 2023 to 2025.

The damage to ELICOS and VET providers is the most severe

The picture for the ELICOS and VET sectors is considerably bleaker than the all-sector aggregate: a -40% y-o-y New-to-Australia commencement decline in 2025 for ELICOS and a -49% fall for VET. Chart 3 (below) shows the pattern for ELICOS.

As English Australia notes, there is a clear connection between the timing of visa application fee hikes and plummeting applications (and NTAs) for ELICOS:

“The student visa application charge went from AU$710 to AU$1,600 from 1 July 2024. This saw the monthly average student visa applications for ELICOS study fall by 34% versus pre-COVID (2018–2019) application levels or 46% versus post-COVID (2023) application levels. The increase of the student visa application charge to AU$2,000 from 1 July 2025 saw applications for ELICOS fall a further 27%.”

What about higher education?

The higher education sector has so far fared better than other kinds of providers because (1) many of the universities have the advantage of streamlined visa processing, which means their applicants aren’t scrutinised to nearly the extent as for other sectors, and (2) students are more willing to pay the visa application fee because it is a smaller proportion of the cost of a degree. For example, from 2024 to 2025:

• Higher education course enrolments rose by +9.7%;
• Commencements also increased slightly (+0.7%);
• New-to-Australia commencements were down by only -0.5%.

However, the sector’s resilience is now being tested in multiple ways. Major challenges include a decline in demand from China and high visa refusal rates for other key markets.

Chart 4 shows the proportion of applications from the top 10 source countries for higher education. The top 10 countries are traditionally responsible for 85% of all HE applications from offshore (that is, new students in the system). In Q4 2025, Chinese applications accounted for over 4 in 10 (43%) of these offshore applications. This fell to a third (34%) in January 2026 and to less than a quarter (23%) in February 2026.

By contrast, demand from India, Nepal, and Bangladesh has risen to the point where 65% of offshore applications from the top 10 are from these three countries. But much of this demand is being stopped at the border. In February 2026, 40% of Indians applying for a visa for study at an Australian university were rejected, as were 51% of Bangladeshis and 65% of Nepalis.

Lower interest from China – coupled with high visa rejection rates for students from other top markets –will almost certainly lead to a decline in Australian university commencements and enrolments in the coming intakes.

Are Australian government policies working?

To manage immigration, the Australian government is working to better link migrant profiles to labour force skills gaps. It wants to reduce net migration to pre-pandemic levels though policies aimed at increasing barriers for low-skilled temporary visa holders to work and immigrate.

Mr Aird presented a slide (shown below) showing that of eight temporary visa categories, only one is being affected by this mission: international students. He commented:

“Where government is talking about the number of temporary visa holders, and they’re taking all sorts of actions to control and manage that, they’re actually managing only one group – student visa holders. The other groups are all increasing significantly.”

The English Australia report reminds readers: “It’s vital to remember these numbers relate to real people. Falling student numbers means lost jobs in Australia, lost livelihoods.”

For additional background, please see:

• “Australia: Student visa refusal rates reach record high amid weakening demand from China”
• “Australia: Latest enrolment data challenges the government’s assertion of stability for international education this year“
• “Australia: Full-year data for 2025 reveals impact of AUD$2,000 study visa application fee on ELICOS sector“
• “Australia passes integrity legislation; sharpens definition of agents and agent commissions“

The post Australia: Multiple data indicators signal further declines ahead for international student numbers appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

Fully three-quarters of Chinese students in Australia are in higher education. Department of Home Affairs data shows compared with February 2025. This is on the heels of previous decreases over the past couple of years.

As Chinese demand softens for study in Australia, interest from several South Asian markets has been increasing or stable over the past five years. This does not offset declining Chinese demand, however, largely because in contrast to very high visa approval rates for Chinese university students, students from emerging markets such as Bhutan, Sri Lanka, India, and Nepal face a much greater chance of having their visa refused.

Therefore, higher demand from some South Asian markets is not making up for lower Chinese enrolments. Rather, it is being stopped at the border.

More visa rejections in February 2026 than in any year of tracking data

In February 2026, one out of every three students applying to an Australian university . This monthly refusal average (32.5%) was the most significant in 21 years of tracking, and it was spiked by incredibly high rejections of students from Nepal (65%), Bangladesh (51%), India (40%), Sri Lanka (38%), and Bhutan (36%). This compares to a refusal rate of about 3.5% for Chinese students applying to an Australian university.

A depressor on diversification

Australian universities have long known that they need to rely less on China for enrolments. But a number of factors are making this very hard to do, including:

• Many of their top 10 markets – including India, Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan – are experiencing visa rejection rates of 30% or more.
• Many of these markets are price-sensitive, and thus especially affected by record-high and non-refundable visa application fees and financial requirements.

The pathway to higher education is being squeezed

In addition, several important emerging markets in Southeast Asia, such as Thailand, are characterised by very low English proficiency. Many Thai students (28%) begin in ELICOS to improve their English and then progress to higher education. Yet in February 2026, 43.5% of Thai visa applications for ELICOS study were rejected, narrowing the pipeline of Thai students into higher education.

Other implications of high visa refusal rates

As part of an ongoing mission to (1) weed out non-genuine students from entering the country and (2) disadvantage institutions considered to be at high risk of recruiting those students, the Australian government has a system that assigns institutions into one of three categories of risk. Those determinations are mostly based on student visa outcomes – especially visa refusal rates due to fraud (40%) or other reasons (10%).

The record-high spike in visa refusals in February 2026 will bump some universities into a Level 2 or 3 risk category. This will require them to secure more documentation from students (e.g., English-language test scores, financial means) to prove those students are genuine, and it means that new prospective students’ visa applications will be processed more slowly. All this means that on top of lower-than-expected enrolments and potentially weaker standing in key origin markets, those institutions will:

(1) Need more administrative staff time to try to help prospects submit more comprehensive documentation.
(2) See a higher volume of students who choose another option (i.e., another institution or destination) due to frustration with long visa processing wait times.
(3) Be more challenged to execute effective recruitment strategies in key markets due to overloaded resources and finances.
(4) Be less able to reduce reliance on their top market, China.

To make matters worse, when a visa submitted offshore is refused, the student must reapply if they want another chance. This would mean that on top of paying the first non-refundable visa application fee – currently AU$2,000 – they would have to lay out that amount of money again, with no guarantee of their second application being approved. This alone severely hampers Australia institutions’ ability to persuade an applicant to try again with better documentation.

Peak bodies react

The International Education Association of Australia (IEAA) is calling for a freeze on changes to immigration risk ratings at the next scheduled evidence level review in September 2026 because of the surge in visa rejections. Because refusals compose 50% of the criteria on which institutions are categorised, a volume of refusals can force an otherwise high-performing institution into a higher risk category.

In addition, Visa HQ reports that:

“Universities Australia is urging the government to publish weekly refusal dashboards so providers can intervene early with extra document checks and GTE coaching [Genuine Temporary Entrant] rather than lose applicants outright. In the short term, institutions recruiting heavily from India, Nepal and Bangladesh will need emergency marketing in lower-risk regions such as Southeast Asia and Latin America to keep 2027 pipelines alive.”

ELICOS and VET representatives have so far been unable to persuade the government of the growing existential threat to their operations as a result of current policy directions. It remains to be seen if the more recent pressure on higher education can create a different urgency around the serious challenges the sector is facing today.

Key facts

• In 2024/25, education exports amounted to AU$53.6 billion (US$37.8 billion), according to the , divided between tuition income and students’ spending in the Australian economy. This means that multiple business sectors outside of education reap the benefits of international student spending in the country.

• Almost three-quarters (72%) of the total economic value is from higher education enrolments.

• More than half (58%) of the total came from Australia’s top five markets: China, India, Nepal, Vietnam, and Colombia.

• Visa applications from Indian students fell -33% between 2023/24 and 2024/25, and the number fell by -10% from Nepal.

• Visa refusals for India and Nepal were 40% and 65% in February 2026.

• Nearly one-fifth of international students begin in ELICOS or VET

For additional background, please see:

• “Australia: Latest enrolment data challenges the government’s assertion of stability for international education this year”

The post Australia: Student visa refusal rates reach record high amid weakening demand from China appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

The new fee, announced without warning on 1 March 2026, is more than 10 times, 3 times, and twice the amount that students pay for similar visas in Canada, New Zealand, and the UK, respectively. Across three increases spanning 2024, 2025, and now 2026, the Temporary Graduate Visa application fee has more than doubled.

There are also now heftier fees for post-study work applicants’ accompanying dependants. The fee for partners or dependants aged 18 and over has risen from AU$1,115 to AU$2,300, and the fee for children under 18 years of age has increased from AU$560 to AU$1,150.

Even before the latest increase, the Temporary Graduate Visa was the expensive post-study work visa in the world.

Rising costs

The fee hike follows a pattern of rising costs for international students in Australia over the past couple of years. For example:

• The non-refundable student visa (Subclass 500) fee has risen twice in the past two years and now stands at AU$2,000 (roughly US$1,400), making it the most expensive study visa fee across all destinations.

• The for living costs rose to AU$29,710 (about US$20,000) per year in 2024.

• The private health insurance premium – which almost all international students need for a visa – is set to rise by +4.4% in April 2026.

• Many Australian universities have raised their tuition fees as the cost of international student recruitment has risen amidst far tighter governmental oversight and regulations. The average year-over-year increase was more than +6% in 2025.

Price effects

When the Australian government raised the application fee for the student visa (Subclass 500) in 2025, it said the higher cost would help to weed out non-genuine students (i.e., people who use study-related visa classes for the main purpose of working and/or immigrating to Australia).

Across higher education, vocational education (VET), and English-language training establishments (ELICOS), reaction to that move was negative despite widespread support for more integrity safeguards for students and institutions alike. Critics pointed out that as the new fee was introduced, visa refusals were skyrocketing, particularly for VET and ELICOS students. Many students – especially from Southeast Asia – have paid the non-refundable fee of AU$2,000 only to be refused for a visa. The ELICOS and VET sectors have been particularly hard hit by the higher fees, which apply regardless of the student’s intended length of study in Australia.

The new application fee for the Temporary Graduate Visa – as well as its sudden announcement and immediate implication – has shocked both educators and students. interviewed a student named Jimmy (no last name given), whose student visa is soon to expire. He said:

“It sets a dangerous precedent where the government can bypass fairness at its whim to the detriment of vulnerable groups. Treating us as an ATM at the 11th hour is … a massive breach of trust that severely damages Australia’s international reputation.”

The National Union of Students (NUS) international officer, Ariya Masud, added to The Guardian:

“Being blindsided by the country that over 800,000 current students have called their home for years sends a clear message to international students about their standing in Australian society. [We are] regarded as ATMs to funnel a multibillion-dollar industry instead of human beings being forced into abandoning the lives and careers they’ve built here.”

A hurdle to recruitment

Australian immigration expert Dr Abul Rizvi told Vietnamese news outlet that fees for international students in Australia have been rising much faster than inflation. He said that for many students, the ability to work after studies helps to offset the cost of completing an academic programme.

What’s more, international prospects carefully consider work rights when calculating the likely return on investment (ROI) of study abroad in various destinations, as we have reported recently. The Temporary Graduate Visa application fee hike – along with high visa refusal rates – will almost certainly change the ROI calculations of many families considering study abroad.

Speaking with , Jesse Garden-Russell, president of the Council of Australian Postgraduate Associations (CAPA), said the fee hike was unfair to international graduates already struggling with high living and study costs. She continued:

“[It] sends a clear message that international graduates are being treated as revenue sources rather than valued contributors to Australia’s workforce and society. Graduates finish their studies hoping to gain work experience here, contribute to their fields and build networks – not to be hit with unpredictable, punitive costs.”

For additional background, please see:

• “How are Australian universities approaching international recruitment in 2026?”
• “What students want: The top decision factors for study abroad”
• “Australia: Full-year data for 2025 reveals impact of AUD$2,000 study visa application fee on ELICOS sector”

The post Australia doubles post-study work visa application fee appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

English Australia, the peak body for the ELICOS sector, has published a Market Analysis Report exploring the data. The report does not include information on enrolments and commencements because full-year numbers have not yet been released by the government, but it does give a detailed picture of demand for study in Australia under the country’s updated immigration settings and fee structures.

ELICOS visa applications down nearly 40%

On average (across all education sectors), study visa application numbers were down -14% in 2025 compared with 2024, and this is on the heels of a -21% decrease the previous year.

However, unlike for other sectors, demand for university studies in Australia remains strong: the number of visa applications filed in 2025 was greater than in 2019 despite a -2% drop compared with 2024.

It is demand for other kinds of study – especially short courses – that is plummeting. Between 2024 and 2025, visa applications fell:

• -35% for VET
• -14% for K-12 schools
• -39% for ELICOS programmes

The effect of visa application increases

The Australian government has rapidly increased study visa application fees over the past two years. In 2023, the fee was AUD$710. This increased +125% to $1,600 in 2024, then to $2,000 in July 2025.

ELICOS providers deliver courses that are far shorter, and less expensive, than university degree programmes. English Australia explains the disproportionate impact of the fee hikes on demand for English-language-only programmes:

“In 2025, the Labor government confirmed it would raise the world’s most expensive student visa application charge [then $1,600] another 25% to AUD$2,000. By this stage ELICOS applicants were experiencing the highest rate of student visa application refusal on record and were being asked to pay an average of 30% to 40% of the cost of their study to apply for a student visa that saw 1 in 4 applicants refused. The application numbers fell immediately again … These step-down shifts at the point of introduction of these visa fee hikes make it very clear that the AUD$2,000 non-refundable charge has made Australia far less attractive for short term students.”

The lowest volume of visa grants in 20 years

Overall, the number of visas that Australian immigration officials granted to international student applicants fell -2% between 2024 and 2025. Again, the decrease was not felt equally across education sectors:

• The higher education sector experienced a marginal -1% decline in visa approvals compared with 2024, and visa grants were actually up +14% when compared to 2019 levels.
• The VET sector saw a small increase in visa grants in 2025 compared with 2024, but this was still -45% lower than in 2019.
• K-12 schools saw -17% fewer visas granted in 2025 than in 2024. Since 2019, the decline has been -28%.

For the ELICOS sector, the severity of the decline in visa grants is illustrated in the fact that in the last six months of 2025, fewer visas were granted for study at an ELICOS provider than at any other time over the past 20 years.

The damage to the ELICOS sector since 2024 can be seen across several measures, including job losses. The visa application fee is estimated to have resulted in 5,000 to 9,000 full-time job losses over two years in ELICOS institutions.

Of all the statistics, job losses should give readers serious pause. They represent the impact to staff, institutions, and schools that have contributed greatly to the development of the ELICOS sector over many years, and, by extension, to Australia’s economy.

The stakes are very high going forward. Speaking to ���Ϲ��� Monitor late last year, David Scott, the managing director at the Sydney-based English Language Company (ELC) said:

“If the student fee is not reduced significantly and very soon, the English language teaching sector, especially private independent colleges, is likely to disappear in the next 12–24 months. The introduction of the ‘extortionate, world’s worst, non-refundable visa charge of AUD$2000’, combined with the unprecedented increase in student visa rejections, has basically dealt a mortal blow to the English language sector in Australia. The once thriving sector is disappearing quickly as students turn their backs on Australia. Why would anyone pay AUD$2000 to study a short English course in a country that is likely to reject your visa and keep the fee? It makes no sense.”

No urgency for government

English Australia notes: “The report reveals what the ELICOS sector well knows – that 2025 saw ELICOS student numbers plummet further to new record lows even after very low numbers in 2024.”

“While there were initially signs that the government was considering lowering the student visa application charge for ELICOS and other non-award enrolments, discussions appear to have stalled, and Canberra has shown no urgency on the matter.”

For additional background, please see:

“Australia: With ELICOS under pressure, peak bodies push for reduction in ‘extortionate’ visa fees“

The post Australia: Full-year data for 2025 reveals impact of AUD$2,000 study visa application fee on ELICOS sector appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.