The order dictates that “no applications may be made to the National VET Regulator under section 9 of the Act until after the day 12 months after the day this instrument commences.” The order is in immediate effect and it means that the Australian Skills Quality Authority (ASQA) will not accept applications from new providers or for new courses for a 12-month period beginning 19 May 2026.

The order specifically prevents any new applications for registration in the Commonwealth Register of Institutions and Courses for Overseas Students (CRICOS). CRICOS is Australia’s official government register of education providers and courses that are approved to enrol international students. And The Education Services for Overseas Students (ESOS) Act 2000 requires that any Australian institution enrolling visa-holding foreign students must be registered on CRICOS.

The 18 May order applies to private vocational education and training (VET) providers as well as those in the English Language Intensive Courses for Overseas Students (ELICOS) sector. Public providers, including TAFEs and public universities, are exempt.

In other words, during the year-long freeze, no new private VET or ELICOS providers may be established, nor may existing private-sector providers establish any new courses.

A background brief accompanying the assistant minister’s order explains that there are two exceptions:

“The Suspension will not apply to applications made by any existing provider that relate to adding:

• a location for a course the provider is already registered on CRICOS to deliver
• a course identified as superseded (non-equivalent) on the National Register (www.training.gov.au), where the provider is already registered to deliver the superseded (non-equivalent) course.”

An accompanying statement from Mr Hill says that the freeze is necessary to “provide ASQA with additional time to address sector integrity issues while processing existing applications with a focus on rigour, scrutiny, and integrity.”

The assistant minister draws a direct line in his comments from the order to two substantive government reviews of Australia’s immigration system – the Rapid Review into the Exploitation of Australia’s Visa System (the Nixon Review) and the Migration Review in 2023 – which identified “significant integrity concerns within Australia’s international education system, particularly in the vocational education and training (VET) sector.”

“Suspending new registrations to teach international students VET or English language onshore is not a decision taken lightly and will allow the Government to address integrity concerns about new market entrants and oversaturation in the international VET and ELICOS sectors,” added the Assistant Minister. “Frankly, it raises suspicions when at the same time student numbers in these parts of the sector are moderating the regulator continues to see a rush of new market entrants.”

A blunt instrument

“The Albanese Government has quietly dropped one of the most consequential blows to Australia’s international education sector in years and it landed without warning,” says . “This is not simply a technical regulatory change. It is a deliberate attempt to reshape the international education market to favour public providers while freezing out the private sector…It freezes the entire pipeline of new entrants regardless of quality, innovation, or workforce relevance. It also blocks private providers from diversifying their offerings.”

Ian Pratt, Managing Director at Lexis English, also questioned the government’s approach, noting that, “We now appear to have reached the point where, instead of properly resourcing regulators to assess applications and enforce standards, the solution is simply to stop accepting applications altogether.”

“Instead of empowering the regulator to identify and remove poor operators, the government has chosen a blanket suspension targeting an entire segment of the sector,” he added on LinkedIn. “The genuinely frustrating part is that quality independent providers are not the problem here. Many of the most innovative, student-focused and internationally responsive organisations in Australian education sit within the private sector. These are the providers building niche programmes, responding quickly to employer demand, investing in student experience, and actively supporting regional economies.”

Part of a larger pattern?

The freeze on new CRICOS registrations arrives in the midst of an ongoing political debate around migration levels in Australia. Both the governing and opposition parties have offered policy positions based in part on reducing immigration levels, including with respect to international students.

A statement from Universities Australia Chief Executive Officer Luke Sheehy cautions in response that, “After two years of instability and policy swings, what the sector and students need now is stability, certainty and a clear long-term strategy.

“International students are not the low-hanging fruit both sides of politics are treating them as in the migration debate. Significant cuts to international student numbers would have real consequences for the economy and our universities at a time both are doing it tough.

“Australia cannot afford another race to the bottom driven by stop-start policy settings, political signalling or measures that damage our economy, our universities and our global reputation.”

For additional background, please see:

• “Australia: Multiple data indicators signal further declines ahead for international student numbers“
• “Australia: Student visa refusal rates reach record high amid weakening demand from China“
• “New IDP research shows link between visa uncertainty and the perceived ROI of study abroad“

The post Australia orders a year-long pause on new VET and ELICOS provider registrations appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

The context here is the past three years of new policy settings and greater government intervention to manage student inflows, as well as two successive student visa application fee hikes. As of this writing, the non-refundable fee of AU$2,000 is the highest in the world. The cost of a student visa – and the very real possibility for students from many markets that their application will be refused – is dampening demand, especially for students coming for relatively shorter programmes, such as English-language courses.

Unravelling the data

Presenting the analysis to IEAA members in April 2026, English Australia CEO Ian Aird showcased the importance of clarifying the source, time frame, and implications of often misunderstood data indicators for Australia’s international education sector. For example:

• Enrolments vs. student numbers: In Australia, course enrolments tend to be the main data point presented in international education summaries and covered by media. They are sometimes confused with international student numbers – which are something quite different. Enrolments are always far higher than student numbers because international students often enrol in multiple courses in a given year (e.g., two back-to-back English-language courses of four months each would be counted as two enrolments for a single student).

• Commencements vs. NTAs: General commencement numbers comprise both students coming for the first time to study in Australia and students already in Australia who progress from a completed course to a new course. But “New-to-Australia” (NTA) commencements describe only offshore students enrolling for the first time ever in Australia.

Each of those four indicators – course enrolments, student numbers, commencements, and NTA commencements – tell very different stories. Of the four, enrolments are the least indicative of the current and future state of affairs. Mr Aird explains:

“Both enrolment and commencement figures must be recognised as ‘lag indicators’ in terms of sector health. That is, the enrolments are students who may have started their courses months and sometimes years ago. Even commencements are students who booked, paid for, and were granted visas months before they commence. If a commencement is part of a pathway, it too could have been booked years before it is indicated in the official data.

This means that the majority of 2025 enrolments and many 2025 commencements are students who were not impacted by any of the 2024 changes to the student visa system and government policy.”

Why NTAs are more predictive of future trends

New-to-Australia commencement data offers a stronger indication of international student demand under the current settings – and relatedly, factors either easing or challenging students’ ability to come to Australia. This is because NTA counts represent new students coming into Australia within the recent past (as opposed to enrolments, for example, where data could represent demand from years prior, before the new policy settings came into force). Therefore, the latest NTA data reflects students who have relatively recently:

• Wanted to apply to an institution in Australia
• Decided to pay the fee for a visa application (currently AU$2,000)
• Had their visa approved

When NTAs fall, it suggests that fewer students now consider it worthwhile to apply for a visa and/or more students who are having their visa rejected. A recent decline suggests that the trend will continue unless current circumstances change. Right now, that context is Australia’s extraordinarily expensive visa application fee and high rate of visa refusals.

Recent increases or decreases in the volume of visa applications and in the visa approval rate provide an even better sense of the future trendline for the sector. These can also be divided into applications made in Australia (hence, re-enrolling students) and applications made outside Australia (generally, New-to-Australia students).

Have NTAs fallen?

New-to-Australia commencements have indeed fallen (see Chart 1 below), and this decline coincides with both a lower application volume (Chart 2) and a higher visa refusal rate for students from key markets.

Below, Chart 1 shows that whole-sector NTAs have dropped significantly over the past two years and are significantly lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic. Chart 2 reveals that the number of students submitting visa applications fell by 32% from the post-COVID rebound peak in 2023 to 2025.

The damage to ELICOS and VET providers is the most severe

The picture for the ELICOS and VET sectors is considerably bleaker than the all-sector aggregate: a -40% y-o-y New-to-Australia commencement decline in 2025 for ELICOS and a -49% fall for VET. Chart 3 (below) shows the pattern for ELICOS.

As English Australia notes, there is a clear connection between the timing of visa application fee hikes and plummeting applications (and NTAs) for ELICOS:

“The student visa application charge went from AU$710 to AU$1,600 from 1 July 2024. This saw the monthly average student visa applications for ELICOS study fall by 34% versus pre-COVID (2018–2019) application levels or 46% versus post-COVID (2023) application levels. The increase of the student visa application charge to AU$2,000 from 1 July 2025 saw applications for ELICOS fall a further 27%.”

What about higher education?

The higher education sector has so far fared better than other kinds of providers because (1) many of the universities have the advantage of streamlined visa processing, which means their applicants aren’t scrutinised to nearly the extent as for other sectors, and (2) students are more willing to pay the visa application fee because it is a smaller proportion of the cost of a degree. For example, from 2024 to 2025:

• Higher education course enrolments rose by +9.7%;
• Commencements also increased slightly (+0.7%);
• New-to-Australia commencements were down by only -0.5%.

However, the sector’s resilience is now being tested in multiple ways. Major challenges include a decline in demand from China and high visa refusal rates for other key markets.

Chart 4 shows the proportion of applications from the top 10 source countries for higher education. The top 10 countries are traditionally responsible for 85% of all HE applications from offshore (that is, new students in the system). In Q4 2025, Chinese applications accounted for over 4 in 10 (43%) of these offshore applications. This fell to a third (34%) in January 2026 and to less than a quarter (23%) in February 2026.

By contrast, demand from India, Nepal, and Bangladesh has risen to the point where 65% of offshore applications from the top 10 are from these three countries. But much of this demand is being stopped at the border. In February 2026, 40% of Indians applying for a visa for study at an Australian university were rejected, as were 51% of Bangladeshis and 65% of Nepalis.

Lower interest from China – coupled with high visa rejection rates for students from other top markets –will almost certainly lead to a decline in Australian university commencements and enrolments in the coming intakes.

Are Australian government policies working?

To manage immigration, the Australian government is working to better link migrant profiles to labour force skills gaps. It wants to reduce net migration to pre-pandemic levels though policies aimed at increasing barriers for low-skilled temporary visa holders to work and immigrate.

Mr Aird presented a slide (shown below) showing that of eight temporary visa categories, only one is being affected by this mission: international students. He commented:

“Where government is talking about the number of temporary visa holders, and they’re taking all sorts of actions to control and manage that, they’re actually managing only one group – student visa holders. The other groups are all increasing significantly.”

The English Australia report reminds readers: “It’s vital to remember these numbers relate to real people. Falling student numbers means lost jobs in Australia, lost livelihoods.”

For additional background, please see:

• “Australia: Student visa refusal rates reach record high amid weakening demand from China”
• “Australia: Latest enrolment data challenges the government’s assertion of stability for international education this year“
• “Australia: Full-year data for 2025 reveals impact of AUD$2,000 study visa application fee on ELICOS sector“
• “Australia passes integrity legislation; sharpens definition of agents and agent commissions“

The post Australia: Multiple data indicators signal further declines ahead for international student numbers appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

Fully three-quarters of Chinese students in Australia are in higher education. Department of Home Affairs data shows compared with February 2025. This is on the heels of previous decreases over the past couple of years.

As Chinese demand softens for study in Australia, interest from several South Asian markets has been increasing or stable over the past five years. This does not offset declining Chinese demand, however, largely because in contrast to very high visa approval rates for Chinese university students, students from emerging markets such as Bhutan, Sri Lanka, India, and Nepal face a much greater chance of having their visa refused.

Therefore, higher demand from some South Asian markets is not making up for lower Chinese enrolments. Rather, it is being stopped at the border.

More visa rejections in February 2026 than in any year of tracking data

In February 2026, one out of every three students applying to an Australian university . This monthly refusal average (32.5%) was the most significant in 21 years of tracking, and it was spiked by incredibly high rejections of students from Nepal (65%), Bangladesh (51%), India (40%), Sri Lanka (38%), and Bhutan (36%). This compares to a refusal rate of about 3.5% for Chinese students applying to an Australian university.

A depressor on diversification

Australian universities have long known that they need to rely less on China for enrolments. But a number of factors are making this very hard to do, including:

• Many of their top 10 markets – including India, Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan – are experiencing visa rejection rates of 30% or more.
• Many of these markets are price-sensitive, and thus especially affected by record-high and non-refundable visa application fees and financial requirements.

The pathway to higher education is being squeezed

In addition, several important emerging markets in Southeast Asia, such as Thailand, are characterised by very low English proficiency. Many Thai students (28%) begin in ELICOS to improve their English and then progress to higher education. Yet in February 2026, 43.5% of Thai visa applications for ELICOS study were rejected, narrowing the pipeline of Thai students into higher education.

Other implications of high visa refusal rates

As part of an ongoing mission to (1) weed out non-genuine students from entering the country and (2) disadvantage institutions considered to be at high risk of recruiting those students, the Australian government has a system that assigns institutions into one of three categories of risk. Those determinations are mostly based on student visa outcomes – especially visa refusal rates due to fraud (40%) or other reasons (10%).

The record-high spike in visa refusals in February 2026 will bump some universities into a Level 2 or 3 risk category. This will require them to secure more documentation from students (e.g., English-language test scores, financial means) to prove those students are genuine, and it means that new prospective students’ visa applications will be processed more slowly. All this means that on top of lower-than-expected enrolments and potentially weaker standing in key origin markets, those institutions will:

(1) Need more administrative staff time to try to help prospects submit more comprehensive documentation.
(2) See a higher volume of students who choose another option (i.e., another institution or destination) due to frustration with long visa processing wait times.
(3) Be more challenged to execute effective recruitment strategies in key markets due to overloaded resources and finances.
(4) Be less able to reduce reliance on their top market, China.

To make matters worse, when a visa submitted offshore is refused, the student must reapply if they want another chance. This would mean that on top of paying the first non-refundable visa application fee – currently AU$2,000 – they would have to lay out that amount of money again, with no guarantee of their second application being approved. This alone severely hampers Australia institutions’ ability to persuade an applicant to try again with better documentation.

Peak bodies react

The International Education Association of Australia (IEAA) is calling for a freeze on changes to immigration risk ratings at the next scheduled evidence level review in September 2026 because of the surge in visa rejections. Because refusals compose 50% of the criteria on which institutions are categorised, a volume of refusals can force an otherwise high-performing institution into a higher risk category.

In addition, reports that:

“Universities Australia is urging the government to publish weekly refusal dashboards so providers can intervene early with extra document checks and GTE coaching [Genuine Temporary Entrant] rather than lose applicants outright. In the short term, institutions recruiting heavily from India, Nepal and Bangladesh will need emergency marketing in lower-risk regions such as Southeast Asia and Latin America to keep 2027 pipelines alive.”

ELICOS and VET representatives have so far been unable to persuade the government of the growing existential threat to their operations as a result of current policy directions. It remains to be seen if the more recent pressure on higher education can create a different urgency around the serious challenges the sector is facing today.

Key facts

• In 2024/25, education exports amounted to AU$53.6 billion (US$37.8 billion), according to the , divided between tuition income and students’ spending in the Australian economy. This means that multiple business sectors outside of education reap the benefits of international student spending in the country.

• Almost three-quarters (72%) of the total economic value is from higher education enrolments.

• More than half (58%) of the total came from Australia’s top five markets: China, India, Nepal, Vietnam, and Colombia.

• Visa applications from Indian students fell -33% between 2023/24 and 2024/25, and the number fell by -10% from Nepal.

• Visa refusals for India and Nepal were 40% and 65% in February 2026.

• Nearly one-fifth of international students begin in ELICOS or VET

For additional background, please see:

• “Australia: Latest enrolment data challenges the government’s assertion of stability for international education this year”

The post Australia: Student visa refusal rates reach record high amid weakening demand from China appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

The new fee, announced without warning on 1 March 2026, is more than 10 times, 3 times, and twice the amount that students pay for similar visas in Canada, New Zealand, and the UK, respectively. Across three increases spanning 2024, 2025, and now 2026, the Temporary Graduate Visa application fee has more than doubled.

There are also now heftier fees for post-study work applicants’ accompanying dependants. The fee for partners or dependants aged 18 and over has risen from AU$1,115 to AU$2,300, and the fee for children under 18 years of age has increased from AU$560 to AU$1,150.

Even before the latest increase, the Temporary Graduate Visa was the expensive post-study work visa in the world.

Rising costs

The fee hike follows a pattern of rising costs for international students in Australia over the past couple of years. For example:

• The non-refundable student visa (Subclass 500) fee has risen twice in the past two years and now stands at AU$2,000 (roughly US$1,400), making it the most expensive study visa fee across all destinations.

• The for living costs rose to AU$29,710 (about US$20,000) per year in 2024.

• The private health insurance premium – which almost all international students need for a visa – is set to rise by +4.4% in April 2026.

• Many Australian universities have raised their tuition fees as the cost of international student recruitment has risen amidst far tighter governmental oversight and regulations. The average year-over-year increase was more than +6% in 2025.

Price effects

When the Australian government raised the application fee for the student visa (Subclass 500) in 2025, it said the higher cost would help to weed out non-genuine students (i.e., people who use study-related visa classes for the main purpose of working and/or immigrating to Australia).

Across higher education, vocational education (VET), and English-language training establishments (ELICOS), reaction to that move was negative despite widespread support for more integrity safeguards for students and institutions alike. Critics pointed out that as the new fee was introduced, visa refusals were skyrocketing, particularly for VET and ELICOS students. Many students – especially from Southeast Asia – have paid the non-refundable fee of AU$2,000 only to be refused for a visa. The ELICOS and VET sectors have been particularly hard hit by the higher fees, which apply regardless of the student’s intended length of study in Australia.

The new application fee for the Temporary Graduate Visa – as well as its sudden announcement and immediate implication – has shocked both educators and students. interviewed a student named Jimmy (no last name given), whose student visa is soon to expire. He said:

“It sets a dangerous precedent where the government can bypass fairness at its whim to the detriment of vulnerable groups. Treating us as an ATM at the 11th hour is … a massive breach of trust that severely damages Australia’s international reputation.”

The National Union of Students (NUS) international officer, Ariya Masud, added to The Guardian:

“Being blindsided by the country that over 800,000 current students have called their home for years sends a clear message to international students about their standing in Australian society. [We are] regarded as ATMs to funnel a multibillion-dollar industry instead of human beings being forced into abandoning the lives and careers they’ve built here.”

A hurdle to recruitment

Australian immigration expert Dr Abul Rizvi told Vietnamese news outlet that fees for international students in Australia have been rising much faster than inflation. He said that for many students, the ability to work after studies helps to offset the cost of completing an academic programme.

What’s more, international prospects carefully consider work rights when calculating the likely return on investment (ROI) of study abroad in various destinations, as we have reported recently. The Temporary Graduate Visa application fee hike – along with high visa refusal rates – will almost certainly change the ROI calculations of many families considering study abroad.

Speaking with , Jesse Garden-Russell, president of the Council of Australian Postgraduate Associations (CAPA), said the fee hike was unfair to international graduates already struggling with high living and study costs. She continued:

“[It] sends a clear message that international graduates are being treated as revenue sources rather than valued contributors to Australia’s workforce and society. Graduates finish their studies hoping to gain work experience here, contribute to their fields and build networks – not to be hit with unpredictable, punitive costs.”

For additional background, please see:

• “How are Australian universities approaching international recruitment in 2026?”
• “What students want: The top decision factors for study abroad”
• “Australia: Full-year data for 2025 reveals impact of AUD$2,000 study visa application fee on ELICOS sector”

The post Australia doubles post-study work visa application fee appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

English Australia, the peak body for the ELICOS sector, has published a Market Analysis Report exploring the data. The report does not include information on enrolments and commencements because full-year numbers have not yet been released by the government, but it does give a detailed picture of demand for study in Australia under the country’s updated immigration settings and fee structures.

ELICOS visa applications down nearly 40%

On average (across all education sectors), study visa application numbers were down -14% in 2025 compared with 2024, and this is on the heels of a -21% decrease the previous year.

However, unlike for other sectors, demand for university studies in Australia remains strong: the number of visa applications filed in 2025 was greater than in 2019 despite a -2% drop compared with 2024.

It is demand for other kinds of study – especially short courses – that is plummeting. Between 2024 and 2025, visa applications fell:

• -35% for VET
• -14% for K-12 schools
• -39% for ELICOS programmes

The effect of visa application increases

The Australian government has rapidly increased study visa application fees over the past two years. In 2023, the fee was AUD$710. This increased +125% to $1,600 in 2024, then to $2,000 in July 2025.

ELICOS providers deliver courses that are far shorter, and less expensive, than university degree programmes. English Australia explains the disproportionate impact of the fee hikes on demand for English-language-only programmes:

“In 2025, the Labor government confirmed it would raise the world’s most expensive student visa application charge [then $1,600] another 25% to AUD$2,000. By this stage ELICOS applicants were experiencing the highest rate of student visa application refusal on record and were being asked to pay an average of 30% to 40% of the cost of their study to apply for a student visa that saw 1 in 4 applicants refused. The application numbers fell immediately again … These step-down shifts at the point of introduction of these visa fee hikes make it very clear that the AUD$2,000 non-refundable charge has made Australia far less attractive for short term students.”

The lowest volume of visa grants in 20 years

Overall, the number of visas that Australian immigration officials granted to international student applicants fell -2% between 2024 and 2025. Again, the decrease was not felt equally across education sectors:

• The higher education sector experienced a marginal -1% decline in visa approvals compared with 2024, and visa grants were actually up +14% when compared to 2019 levels.
• The VET sector saw a small increase in visa grants in 2025 compared with 2024, but this was still -45% lower than in 2019.
• K-12 schools saw -17% fewer visas granted in 2025 than in 2024. Since 2019, the decline has been -28%.

For the ELICOS sector, the severity of the decline in visa grants is illustrated in the fact that in the last six months of 2025, fewer visas were granted for study at an ELICOS provider than at any other time over the past 20 years.

The damage to the ELICOS sector since 2024 can be seen across several measures, including job losses. The visa application fee is estimated to have resulted in 5,000 to 9,000 full-time job losses over two years in ELICOS institutions.

Of all the statistics, job losses should give readers serious pause. They represent the impact to staff, institutions, and schools that have contributed greatly to the development of the ELICOS sector over many years, and, by extension, to Australia’s economy.

The stakes are very high going forward. Speaking to ���Ϲ��� Monitor late last year, David Scott, the managing director at the Sydney-based English Language Company (ELC) said:

“If the student fee is not reduced significantly and very soon, the English language teaching sector, especially private independent colleges, is likely to disappear in the next 12–24 months. The introduction of the ‘extortionate, world’s worst, non-refundable visa charge of AUD$2000’, combined with the unprecedented increase in student visa rejections, has basically dealt a mortal blow to the English language sector in Australia. The once thriving sector is disappearing quickly as students turn their backs on Australia. Why would anyone pay AUD$2000 to study a short English course in a country that is likely to reject your visa and keep the fee? It makes no sense.”

No urgency for government

English Australia notes: “The report reveals what the ELICOS sector well knows – that 2025 saw ELICOS student numbers plummet further to new record lows even after very low numbers in 2024.”

“While there were initially signs that the government was considering lowering the student visa application charge for ELICOS and other non-award enrolments, discussions appear to have stalled, and Canberra has shown no urgency on the matter.”

For additional background, please see:

“Australia: With ELICOS under pressure, peak bodies push for reduction in ‘extortionate’ visa fees“

The post Australia: Full-year data for 2025 reveals impact of AUD$2,000 study visa application fee on ELICOS sector appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

MD111 is not a formal cap on new student visas. Its design relies heavily on prioritising visa applications from “low-risk” origin countries (i.e., in which students are more likely to be “genuine” and not using the student visa route to enter the labour force) and for institutions with proven capacity to handle more students. It has had the effect, however, of establishing a “soft” enrolment cap by limiting visa processing for individual institutions once they have exceeded an allocated number of new student spaces. This was enough to exert significant downward pressure on new international enrolments. Student applications have fallen , and commencements are down by 16% compared with 2024.

The government is pleased with this evidence of what it calls “managed growth,” with the Hon Julian Hill, Assistant Minister for International Education and Assistant Minister for Citizenship, Customs and Multicultural Affairs saying, “Throughout 2025 we have seen the positive effect of a managed growth approach across the sector – returning student numbers to a more sustainable level.”

A wider “slow lane” for visa processing

Now, there is , which on 14 November 2025 will replace MD111. MD115 is intended to further the goals of MD111 and to reinforce the government’s 2026 National Planning Level (NPL) for international student places announced in August 2025.

The NPL sets a recommended total allocation of 295,000 seats for new international students in 2026, up moderately from 270,000 in 2025. Two thirds of the 2026 total goes to public universities. Each provider, across sectors, has a set number of allocations (called New Overseas Student Commencements, or NOSCs) for new international students. Providers have been told they will receive at least as many allocations for 2026 as they did in 2025.

Together, the NPL and MD115 will:

• Further disincentivise providers from going beyond mandated capacity limits, because when a provider meets or exceeds 80% of their NOSC allocation, visa applications from students hoping to enrol with them are processed more slowly than those under the 80% mark, with medium and high-risk markets affected first;

• Disadvantage providers exceeding 115% of their NOSC allocation by assigning them to the lowest priority for visa processing;


• Make things easier for those furthest away from meeting capacity limits by processing their applications from students faster than students applying to other providers; 

• Push even those providers that are under their 80% allocation to the slow lane if they are linked to a high level of visa refusals or suspected fraud;
• Reward public universities that align with the NPL’s new priorities for 2026: prioritising the Southeast Asian region for recruitment, providing higher-than-average student accommodation supply; and investing in TNE provision.

The capacity milestones used to determine visa processing speed are:

• Priority 1 (fastest, typically 1-4 weeks): Less than 80% of allocation
• Priority 2 (middle speed, typically 5-8 weeks): Between 80%–115% of allocation
• Priority 3 (slowest, typically 8–12 weeks): 115% above allocation

How can visa processing speed controls act as “soft caps”?

Uncertainty about how fast their visa applications will be processed has a profound effect on international student applicants. Students encountering delays on visa decisions can be disrupted in many ways, including:

• Upsetting travel planning and potentially adding travel costs since flights are more expensive when booked closer to programme start dates;
• Missing orientation events and not feeling ready for the academic year;
• Failing to meet enrolment deadlines when visas have not been approved in time.

Slower visa processes also affect the operations of institutions. They can make enrolment management even more challenging, weakening the ability of admissions staff to estimate numbers of (1) visas that will be granted, (2) prospects who get frustrated and choose another destination, and (3) students who will defer because their visa decision has not happened in time for their programme start date.

Suffice to say, the difference between knowing your visa will likely be approved within three weeks versus three months is massive for many international students. Timing is so influential in terms of students’ ability to prepare for and finance study abroad, and it is equally consequential for institutions attempting to manage capacity and programme mix.

As a result, the Australian government’s leverage of visa processing times is proving effective in terms of encouraging compliance within the international education sector. If the goal is improving the integrity of the system as much as it is controlling international student volumes, stratifying visa processing times is likely as effective as the fixed “hard caps” we see in place in Canada. It is a “carrot and stick” approach that rewards institutions for aligning with government guidance and that disadvantages those that do not.

For additional background, please see:

• “Australia introduces new integrity measures through proposed amendments to the ESOS Act”
• “Australia: With ELICOS under pressure, peak bodies push for reduction in ‘extortionate’ visa fees”
• “How have changes in policy settings impacted international student recruitment at Australian universities?”

The post Australia continues its path towards “managed growth” of international student enrolments with Ministerial Direction 115 appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

It is clear as well that ELICOS is the most severely impacted sector so far this year. Overall, international student commencements are down -16% in Australia YTD July 2025. Within that, higher education commencements are down relatively marginally (-2%), schools a bit more sharply (-10%), and VET providers more significantly again (-22%).

Many have attributed the downturn this year to the significant increases in Australia’s student visa application fee introduced over the past 15 months. In July 2024, the fee was increased from AUD$710 to AUD$1,600. In July 2025, it jumped again to AUD$2,000.

That amounts to an overall increase of 182% in just over a year, and it gives Australia the distinction of having the world’s most expensive visa fee, and by a considerable margin. For comparison, the fee to apply for a Canadian study permit is CDN$150 (AUD$172), and students need US$185 (AUD$299) to apply for an F-1 study visa in the United States.

Alongside those combined increases in the visa fee is a reported rise in rejection rates for offshore ELICOS applicants over the last three years. The Department of Home Affairs data for 2025 is not yet available but the data we can see indicates both that rejection rates are rising over time, but, perhaps more meaningfully, visa application volumes have declined sharply since 2022/23.

Ian Pratt is the managing director of , an ELICOS provider with six locations throughout Australia. He explains: “Visa fees are disproportionately damaging to the ELICOS sector. An AUD$2,000 fee on top of an AUD$100,000 university course is a serious consideration, but one that students will often accept. For a shorter ELICOS programme, however, that same AUD$2,000 can represent up to a third of tuition costs.”

“It is also important to remember that the increase in visa fees was coupled with a massive rise in the rejection of applicants. Many of these refusals simply do not make sense. Students might be willing to pay AUD$2,000 for a visa, but far fewer are willing to pay a non-refundable AUD$2,000 just to roll the dice at the Department of Home Affairs casino.”

“The reduction in student visa numbers for Australia has been an immense source of frustration for ELICOS providers. This is an entirely manufactured crisis,” he adds. “The two key factors driving the collapse in ELICOS enrolments are both government-made. The first is the absurd visa application fee. The second is MD-106 and the Genuine Student Test, which together have given immigration authorities an entirely subjective basis for rejecting visas. This discretion has been exercised with great enthusiasm. Every school has its own war stories of rejections that cannot be justified on any reasonable grounds.”

The impact is real

The dramatic increase in the visa fee and rising rejection rates have combined for a significant impact this year. Speaking to the in September 2025, English Australia Chief Executive Officer Ian Aird estimated that the huge drop in ELICOS numbers YTD 2025 have already cost the sector between 3,000 and 5,000 jobs.

Some of those losses have been concentrated in a series of high-profile school closures, including , (PICE), the , the , and, most recently, .

“If the student fee is not reduced significantly and very soon, the English language teaching sector, especially private independent colleges, is likely to disappear in the next 12 – 24 months,” says David Scott, the managing director at the Sydney-based (ELC). “The introduction of the ‘extortionate, world’s worst, non-refundable visa charge of AUD$2000’, combined with the unprecedented increase in student visa rejections, has basically dealt a mortal blow to the English language sector in Australia. The once thriving sector is disappearing quickly as students turn their backs on Australia. Why would anyone pay AUD$2000 to study a short English course in a country that is likely to reject your visa and keep the fee? It makes no sense.”

A renewed push for change

In a to the Prime Minister, Treasurer, Finance Minister, and several other cabinet ministers, the International Education Association of Australia (IEAA), English Australia and The Independent Tertiary Education Council Australia (ITECA), argued for a dramatic reduction in the visa application fee for students coming to Australia for programmes of less than a year.

The letter opens:

“The undersigned peak bodies, representing a substantial number of education providers, students and academics, and international education stakeholders, write to request an urgent reduction to the current AUD$2,000 non-refundable student visa application charge (VAC) for student cohorts applying to study:

• independent ELICOS programs and stay in Australia for less than 52 weeks
• non-award courses and stay in Australia for less than 52 weeks

…We believe a 50% reduction for these cohorts is both fair and necessary.”

The three sector bodies argue in the letter that the reduction is warranted because charging the full fee “for a course lasting months or weeks is inequitable,” that the increases in the visa application fee have had a particularly severe impact on ELICOS providers, that a reduction in short-term study and exchange numbers limits outbound exchange opportunities for Australian students, and that such short-term enrolments do not factor in Australia’s Net Overseas Migration (and, by extension, nor do they intrude on the government’s goals to reduce those net migration numbers).

The joint letter closes on a note of urgency:

“While our sector has a clear preference for the Government reducing the [visa application fee] for these cohorts without offsetting measures, we recognise that current arrangements have been factored into the Budget outlook. We are therefore prepared to work with the Government to identify measures that will deliver a progressive solution without direct harm to the economy, to business and to Australia’s reputation.

Given the urgency of the situation, we request prompt resolution of these concerns as opposed to any Discussion Paper or ongoing consultation. The sector and our international partners are calling for action and we are seeking to partner with the Government in ensuring that is delivered without unnecessary delay.”

Quick action needed

Speaking to , Mr Honeywood also underscored that time is of the essence with the sector under such pressure this year:

“As each week goes by the sector hears of yet another English Language provider forced to close their doors. The time for polite conversation about reducing this extortionate world-worst visa charge is over. The Government has the means to reduce this charge and IEAA is pleased that English Australia and ITECA have joined with us to keep pressing for action.”

In a follow up comment to ���Ϲ��� Monitor, Mr Honeywood adds that, “IEAA has been made aware that the Home Affairs Department is currently modelling some cost offsets that might be introduced to meet our request for the 50% visa fee reduction for the two requested student cohorts. There is also the prospect of the Department sending out a Discussion Paper for stakeholder input to ascertain sector support for any such cost offsets. But this will only serve to delay action being taken.”

For additional background, please see:

• “Australia’s Labor Party signals an increase in student visa fees“
• “Australia implements immediate doubling of student visa application fees“
• “Global ELT volumes dipped in 2024“
• “New analysis forecasts marginal growth for foreign enrolment in Australia through 2030“

The post Australia: With ELICOS under pressure, peak bodies push for reduction in “extortionate” visa fees appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

The new NPL will be , an increase of 25,000 over the 270,000 limit set for 2024/25 but, “still 8% below the immediate post-COVID peak.”

Assistant Minister for International Education Julian Hill said, “This Government remains committed to sensibly managing the size and shape of the on-shore student market and supporting sustainable growth, especially to welcome more students from Southeast Asia and where accompanied by new housing. We want students to see Australia as a premium destination where they can access high quality education and a great student experience.”

What is the National Planning Level?

The National Planning Level, or NPL, is a system of allocating new student spaces among some institutions in Australia. While not a hard cap, the NPL aims to control the flow of new students into Australia.

Under last year’s Ministerial Direction 111 (MD111), visa applications will be processed for a given institution up to 80% of the indicative cap allocation given in the NPL. Beyond that 80% threshold, that same institution will fall to the end of the processing queue, with greater priority given to universities or colleges that have not reached the 80% benchmark.

There are a number of student categories that are exempted from the NPL limits, including K-12 students, those pursuing stand-alone English language courses, students from the Pacific and Timor-Leste, research students, those with government scholarships, and some students who begin their studies offshore and then transition to study in Australia.

What this means in part is that the NPL limits are fully allocated across the higher education and vocational sectors, with the former receiving roughly two-thirds of all NPL spaces in 2024/25.

How will the NPL work this year?

The allocation between higher education and vocational sectors will be roughly the same in 2025/26, with higher education institutions (public and private) sharing 196,750 new student places. The remaining 98,250 NPL spots will be allocated across vocational training institutions.

The specified by the Department of Education indicate that public universities will see their NPL spaces expand by up to 9% overall. In contrast, for-profit private universities will be limited to a 3% increase.

The joint release sets out that all providers will at least receive their allocation from 2024/25. Public universities (as well as private not-for-profits) can apply to have their NPL limits increased by “demonstrating delivery” on two government priorities:

• Increased engagement with Southeast Asia (in line with Australia’s strategy for the region through 2040); and
• Provision of safe and affordable student housing.

The other notable change in the NPL model for this year is that, “international students transitioning to publicly funded universities from secondary school studies in Australia and from affiliated pathways providers or TAFE institutes will be exempt from the National Planning Level.”

Finally, the government has also indicated that MD111 will soon give way to a new directive which reflects the new NPL allocations for 2025/26.

Are those new limits within reach?

Full-year data from the Department of Home Affairs reveals that the number of visas granted to students applying from offshore to study in Australia came in considerably below the NPL limit for 2024/25.

Keeping in mind that the NPL limit for the year was 270,000 places, the total number of visas granted to offshore applicants totalled only 234,040 for the year. Further, that total includes applicant categories, such as ELICOS and K-12 studies, that are exempt from the NPL.

Just under 170,000 visas were granted to new students coming to Australia for higher education (against a NPL limit for the sector of 176,000). The real gap, however, appears in the vocational education and training (VET) sector, which saw only 11,572 visas granted against an NPL allocation of 94,000.

In terms of visa grants to primary applicants in 2024/25, only 8,887 visas were issued to new VET students. This compares to 38,415 in the recent-year peak of 2022/23 and the pre-pandemic level of 25,727 in 2018/19.

Independent ELICOS enrolments have been similarly, and severely, affected. The 15,020 visas granted to new ELICOS students last year is a significant decline from the 60,299 visas granted for language students in 2022/23 and the 29,090 visas issued in 2018/19.

The broad picture then is that higher education enrolments, while below the 2022/23 surge, have been much less affected by policy changes introduced over the last two years. In fact, visa grants to new higher education students in 2024/25 were comfortably above pre-pandemic levels.

In contrast, ELICOS and VET enrolments have been badly disrupted by the new policy settings, which reach well beyond the NPL to include changes in visa rejection rates, delays in processing, dramatic increases in visa application fees, and more. “A plunge in the issuance of student visas has largely bypassed Australian higher education, with overseas demand for university degrees remaining well above pre-pandemic levels while collapsing in other sectors,” summed up a recent item in .

By extension, the main implication of the increased NPL settings for 2025/26 is that it will provide for stability and even growth for higher education enrolments while doing little to address the challenges that are roiling other key segments of Australia’s higher education sector.

What are people saying?

The reaction to the NPL announcement reflects that variable impact across the sector. “The additional 25,000 new overseas student places provides the sector with some certainty for 2026,” says IEAA CEO Phil Honeywood. “However, these new places are very much weighted to our public universities with private higher education providers being provided with only a 3% increase of their already restricted allocations. Until we achieve a significant discount on student visa application charges, then Australia’s private English Language providers are also facing an uphill battle to keep their doors open.”

“This is a sensible approach and will provide the stability and certainty universities desperately need,” added Universities Australia CEO Luke Sheehy. “We welcome the opportunity for universities to grow their international student intake by aligning with key national priorities.”

“This week’s announcement continues the government’s ‘picking winners’ approach to industry policy,” said of Monash University. “It limits large movements of student enrolments between education providers and offers public universities preferential treatment.”

For additional background, please see:

• “Australia’s central bank highlights importance of international students to national economy“
• “Australia’s Labor Party signals an increase in student visa fees“
• “How have changes in policy settings impacted international student recruitment at Australian universities?“
• “Australia: Impact of more restrictive visa settings reflected in latest student sentiment survey“

The post Australia raises enrolment limits for 2025/26 but are they reachable? appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.