US Department of State shows a dramatic -23% reduction in the number of new F-1, M-1, and J-1 student visas issued to international students in 2025 versus 2024. The drop was especially severe for the visa class associated with degree-seeking students: the F-1 visa, where issuances fell by a third in 2025 versus 2024.

China and India

US colleges’ top two markets, China and India, saw steep declines of -28% and -57%, respectively. This has massive implications: For years, Chinese and Indian students have composed more than half of the total international student body in the US. Many colleges remain incredibly dependent on the continued flow of these students into their programmes despite efforts to recruit across a wider range of countries.

Diversification interrupted

To complicate matters, diversification is becoming more difficult because students in several growth markets are banned from entering the US (e.g., Nigeria) or are experiencing high visa rejection rates (e.g., Ghana and Nepal). It is no coincidence that:

• Visa issuances to Ghanaian and Nepali students dropped by -52% and -55%, respectively, in 2025 compared with 2024;
• The CommonApp platform (which receives a large number of all international applications to US colleges) registered fewer applications from Asian and African students, respectively, for 2025/26 programmes. The percentage drop was -34% for applications from Ghana.

Slow visa processing is also hitting the applications pipeline and causing stress for institutions and students alike.

The importance of the Indian decline

The huge drop in Indian visa issuances is particularly difficult for US graduate/STEM programmes. The number of Indian students pursuing graduate degrees is the number in undergraduate programmes.

Trends for India have been worrisome for some time. For example:

• More than 6 in 10 (61%) Indian students were rejected for a visa in the US in 2025;
• The vast majority (61%) of institutions participating in the survey for the IIE’s 2026 Spring Snapshot on International Educational Exchange said Indian application volumes had declined.

The decelerating trend for India will almost certainly continue. A new rule from the Trump administration abolishes the decades-old Duration of Status (D/S) system that among other things, allowed students to progress from F-1 academic studies to the Optional Practical Training (OPT) work stream. The new system requires students to ask for a visa extension from immigration authorities after they have been in the US for four years, with no guarantee they will be approved. Virtually all students will need an extension to participate in post-study OPT since it happens after the completion of four years of study.

A total of in 2024/25 – accounting for . The end of D/S – if it happens, since plaintiffs including NAFSA are now challenging this in court – will remove a key driver of Indian student mobility to the US.

The following chart was created by International Data & Recruitment Strategist Dave Amor, who posted it on LinkedIn. Mr Amor illustrates the decline of total F-1 visa issuances in the past year – and the extreme drop for the Indian market.

Broad implications

Earlier this month, based on the application trends reported by US colleges in the Institute of International Education’s (IIE) Spring Snapshot survey. NAFSA projects that there will be up to 111,000 fewer international students at US higher education institutions in 2026/27, resulting in close to US$3.4 billion in lost revenue and nearly 40,000 job losses. 

For additional background, please see:

• "Visa delays and policy uncertainty projected to reduce foreign enrolment in the US by more than 100,000 students this fall"
• "Decline in Indian demand a major factor in softer outlook for foreign enrolment in US higher education in 2026/27"