, the peak body for 85% of all accredited English-language teaching (ELT) centres in the country, shows that state and private member centres hosted 311,815 full-time students face-to-face last year and delivered 998,045 student weeks.

Most ELT students (98%) study with private institutions, and of English UK’s 287 members, 264 are in the private sector. We will focus on that sector in this article.

Private sector trends

Private providers hosted -4.1% fewer students in 2025 than in 2024. Student weeks were down by -10%, and the average stay was 3.1 weeks, down from 3.3 in 2024. The following graphic shows the broad trendline for numbers and weeks from 2021–25.

Of all ELT students studying with private providers, 64% were juniors. Though a smaller segment numerically, adult learners tend to spend more time on their courses in the UK and represent two-thirds (65%) of all student weeks.

Türkiye and Argentina were the outliers among top 20 source countries for private providers in 2025: they were the only growth markets. Türkiye (#3) contributed +21% more student weeks than in 2024 and +33% more students, while Argentina (#14) was up +24.5% in student weeks and +28.9% in student numbers.

The private sector’s two top markets, Italy and Saudi Arabia, dropped by -7.6% and -6.4%, respectively, in terms of student weeks.

China accounted for one of the largest declines in weeks (-33.4%), and between 2024 and 2025, it moved from fifth to eighth place among the top 10 markets for the private sector. Asia as a source region is weakening significantly (-26.2%), with weeks from Japan and South Korea down by -16.4% and -10.2%, respectively.

The following table provides a detailed picture of private sector trends in 2025 compared with 2024.

Commenting on the 2025 trends, English UK chief executive Jodie Gray said that in a challenging global context, the UK’s ELT sector is proving resilient and working quickly to adapt to change.

“The story in this year’s statistics will surprise few in UK ELT. Yet in a challenging global environment, the UK continues to perform comparatively well. The strong foundations and adaptability sustaining us now will underpin our future.

We have been preparing for an uncertain world shaped by geopolitics, technological change and intensifying international competition. This week, we launch two documents setting out how we will act and advocate for the future of UK ELT.

Our updated position paper calls on government to move further and faster to create a more supportive operating environment. Initiatives including the Youth Experience Scheme, ID-card group travel, the return of Erasmus+, and our role in supporting delivery of the UK Government’s International Education Strategy offer renewed opportunity.”

Roz McGill, English UK’s market development & insights manager, added:

“Overall, the data suggests a market under pressure but still active, with patterns of demand shifting rather than disappearing. It also highlights the importance for ELT centres of remaining adaptable in their pricing, product mix, and market focus.”

“A challenging environment”

About 40% of English UK’s membership (116 private and state centres) submitted data for English UK’s report. Compared with Q1 2025, there was a -7% decrease in student weeks.

The decline was driven by weaker adult demand: adult student weeks fell by -10%, while juniors went up by +7%. However, Q1 is generally adult-dominated, with adults responsible for 85% of all student weeks, so the increase from younger students couldn’t significantly mitigate the decline in adult weeks.

English UK says:

“These findings highlight a sector operating in a challenging environment and underscore the need for members to remain responsive to both short-term fluctuations and longer-term structural characteristics.”

For additional background, please see:

• “US ELT weeks fell by nearly -8% in 2025”
• “Malta: Non-EU students keeping ELT weeks stable in the face of falling enrolment from Europe“
• “�䲹�Բ��岹’s language training sector reinvents pathway programme model in response to policy settings”
• “Australia: Latest enrolment data challenges the government’s assertion of stability for international education this year”

The post UK’s ELT sector reports declining enrolments through first quarter of 2026 appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

As of 1 June 2026, universities will be judged according to that demand:

• A sponsored study visa refusal rate of less than 5%;
• An enrolment rate of at least 95%;
• A course completion rate of at least 85% (rising to 95% in 2027).

Only if an institution is rated green will it not be sanctioned or penalised in some way by the Home Office. The red rating band allows for sanctions as severe as the revocation of a university’s license to sponsor (aka recruit) international students. Importantly, the RAG rating is not an aggregate across the three BCA metrics; rather, the university’s rating is based on its lowest score on any one of those compliance requirements.

The introduction of this strict compliance regime underscores the importance of a new British Council report, “.” The report says it is urgent for UK universities to consider expanding recruitment beyond the predominant form of attracting students from source countries. An underused enrolment pipeline, says the report, is international students who are already enrolled in some kind of UK education, whether onshore (e.g., in a bachelor’s programme) or offshore (e.g., via transnational education programming, such as a branch campus or through a foreign partnership).

The dangers of overreliance on direct overseas recruitment

About three-quarters (72%) of current foreign students in UK universities were recruited directly from their home countries, primarily through educational agents, student fairs, institutional outreach, and digital channels. Direct overseas recruitment is the norm – but it is also highly vulnerable to external events.

For example, foreign currency fluctuations, policy shifts, geo-political tensions, and affordability crises often dramatically affect international enrolments, and they are doing so right now. Non-EU commencements in the UK have been falling over the past couple of years, especially for postgraduate programmes, where most international students are enrolled. Immigration policies (including the dependant’s ban in 2024) sparked the trend. The updated BCA thresholds and associated Red-Amber-Green (RAG) system will ingrain it further.

The RAG effect on direct recruitment

The RAG system makes it much riskier to directly recruit students from several key non-EU markets. The study visa refusal rate threshold, in particular, is a game changer: it coincides with massive spikes in visa refusals for students from key growth markets, as shown in the chart below.

Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nigeria, and Bangladesh are important growth markets for many UK universities – but the surging rejection rates observed for each this year now increases the risk of a red RAG rating.

Among other penalties, a first red rating results in an institution having its sponsored study visa allocation (CAS) reduced by a minimum of 10% and a “final warning” that compels it to stay out of red for the next five annual BCA assessments. A subsequent red rating (after the final warning) is worse still: it constitutes a “serious breach of sponsorship duties” and allows the Home Office to remove a university’s right to sponsor international students.

Secondary routes are more resilient to external shocks

The rapid decline in the number of sponsored study visa applications and issuances over the past few months is largely due to UK universities and students from high-risk markets anticipating – and reacting to – the impact of the RAG system. Even before the new regime came into effect this week, some universities simply stopped recruiting in countries that were perceived as high risk in terms of visa refusals, and many students have withdrawn their applications to avoid any chance of having a visa refusal attached to their student profile.

Universities that can best withstand the effects of the new compliance standards are either elite institutions (less reliant on high-risk markets) or those that have contingency plans in place, such as the ability to recruit students already enrolled in these two ways:

• Offshore in transnational education (TNE);
• Onshore in K-12 schools, foundational, and degree programmes.

In both those cases, students are already invested in obtaining a UK qualification. They are already enrolled somewhere in the system – which means they don’t have to be recruited directly once more from their home countries.

As the report suggests, the opportunity here is to encourage existing onshore and offshore students to “convert” again, perhaps most crucially into a postgraduate programme. Those programmes attract 70% of onshore international students, and they are also the most affected by recent policies.

The potential of pathway recruitment

The following table shows that secondary entry routes for postgraduate studies at UK universities are growing, while direct recruitment is falling. For example, between 2022/23 and 2023/24:

• TNE (as an entry route to postgraduate studies in the UK) grew by +129%;
• Pre-sessional English (e.g., English-language courses for students to gain proficiency before entering degree programmes) was up +7.5%;
• Prior UK study (e.g., undergraduate to postgraduate or postgraduate to another advanced degree) was up +39%.

By contrast, direct recruitment was down -13.5%.

The crucial role of the undergraduate pipeline

When international bachelor’s enrolments fall, there are downstream effects. A significant number of international undergraduates progress to postgraduate studies (29,900 in 2023/24). The report notes:

“This makes UG2PG [i.e., undergraduate to postgraduate progression] a pivotal mechanism for institutional resilience: it captures the extent to which providers can convert prior UK study into master’s enrolments, rather than relying predominantly on new international recruitment at the point of entry.”

This point is especially important when looking at the markets where negative pressures on demand are the strongest. Though students from Pakistan, Bangladesh, Ghana, Sri Lanka, Nigeria, and Kenya are primarily enrolled in postgraduate programmes, anywhere from 20%–40% (depending on market) are in bachelor’s programmes. Collectively, this is a lot of students who can be recruited from within the UK.

Students with prior UK study experience and a history of compliance with immigration rules generally have a stronger chance of being approved for a second sponsored study visa (e.g., for postgraduate studies) than applicants from high-risk markets. They have demonstrated that they are genuine students whose primary reason for being in the UK is to study rather than to access work or immigration routes through the back door.

In turn, secondary pathways into undergraduate programmes deserve more attention, says the report:

“Universities’ foundation and [private pathway programmes] imply a sizeable “hidden” feeder pipeline into undergraduate degrees. This matters because these entrants often represent students with a higher level of commitment to a UK degree, and they can provide a stabilising buffer when direct recruitment is disrupted.”

Recommendations

The British Council advises:

“Institutions should treat students with prior engagement with UK education … as part of their resilience strategy [and] scale outreach work with UK schools, TNE, and international partnerships routes where feasible (including progression agreements and joint delivery).”

And continues: “All institutions, including highly ranked institutions, should therefore proactively develop and formalise progression pipelines … to sustain their future onshore conversion base.”

Another important recommendation concerns data. The report proves that the sector, and government, needs to capture and track pipeline progressions for a true understanding of risk. For example, rather than simply consider Pakistan a high-risk market, looking at the entry routes and progressions of Pakistani students could show which routes are more likely to contain genuine students who will succeed in their programmes and be compliant.

The report asserts: “To move from recruitment analytics to sustainability and quality, entry routes should be linked to continuation, completion, progression and employment outcomes.”

The report is broadly relevant across destinations

The report offers food for thought for universities across the Big Four because they share a common need right now: strategies to mitigate risk in the face of tightened immigration policies and heightened regulatory requirements.

For additional background, please see:

• “Narrowing bands of compliance: How the UK’s new RAG system will impact international student recruitment”
• “UK: Sponsored study visa issuances down, rejection rates up, and more”
• “UK universities bracing for a further decline in international enrolments”
• “UK: 7 in 10 universities report declining international postgraduate enrolments; visa rejections are part of the story”

The post Report: International students already studying in the UK or offshore through TNE represent an increasingly important recruitment opportunity appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

This has always been true to some extent, with the costs of study and living abroad a particularly frustrating barrier for many students. However, the list of barriers is growing, and visa rejections occupy an increasingly prominent position on this list – including for students applying to the UK.

The UK’s sponsored study visa approval rate used to be higher than in Australia, and much higher than in Canada and the US. But in the six months up to the end of March 2026, the refusal rate for students from many of the UK’s fastest-growing student source markets has doubled, tripled, or increased even more drastically compared with the same period in 2024/25. In the case of Pakistan, the rejection rate has increased nearly six-fold from just under 6% to 41%.

Higher visa refusal rates are conveniently dovetailing with the UK government’s overall immigration goals. The narrowing of study, work, and immigration opportunities is happening against a background of quietly coordinated and complementary visa processes and policies.

This interplay is the main story behind the Home Office issuing -32% fewer sponsored study visas to international students in Q1 2026 than in Q1 2025.

Massive rises in visa rejections for some markets

In the six-month stretch of Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, sponsored study visa refusals skyrocketed compared with the same period in 2024/25 for Pakistani (41% refusal rate), Bangladeshi (26%), Ghanaian (26%), Sri Lankan (22%), and Nigerian students (20%). The following chart, created by the Nous Group, shows the dramatic contrasts between this recent period and the same period in 2024/25.

The chart also shows that American and Chinese students, who have always benefitted from high approval rates, have become even more likely to be approved.

Why are Chinese and American students so much more likely to be approved?

More than 99% of Chinese and American sponsored study applications were approved by UK immigration officials in the year ending March 2026.

The growing discrepancy between this rate and those in emerging markets such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Nigeria, is greatly influenced by the immigration climate in the UK.

The ruling Labour government is plummeting in popularity, not least because of among a sizeable segment of voters that immigration levels are not lower.

Rachel Wolf, writing in , predicts that to attempt to remain in power, Labour will employ a range of right-aligned tactics including “[cutting] immigration and [going] after easy wins (such as international students).”

Some international students are better targets than others in this regard. Chinese and American students do not increase net migration levels because the vast majority of them leave the UK after completing their studies.

In contrast, students from countries experiencing dramatic jumps in visa rejection rates are also the most likely to want to remain in the UK to work and immigrate.

The following chart from the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford depicts striking differences in “stay rates” across four nationalities (as measured by proportions that still had a valid sponsored study visa in 2024 after first arriving in 2019).

Some institutions more affected than others

The composition of a British university’s international student body is now a major determinant of how well that university can tolerate the clampdown on student flows from some countries.

For example, Higher Education Statistics Agency () data shows that Chinese students – who have a 99% approval rate – accounted for more than 40% of all international students at elite Russell Group universities in 2024/25.

Around 105,000 Chinese students were enrolled at these institutions that academic year – which is nearly three-quarters of all Chinese students in the UK.

Heavy reliance on Chinese enrolments may be risky in the long term, but for now, it buffers elite institutions against the system-wide trend of students in high-growth emerging markets being either rejected for a visa or withdrawing their application.

The rest of the country’s universities tend to be more diversified across nationalities and rely more on enrolments from emerging markets. Ironically, though this diversification was encouraged by the UK government’s 2019 International Education Strategy (and 2021 update), it now exacerbates the many are experiencing.

Nous Group director Nicholas Dillon notes that lower-ranked universities that continue efforts to recruit in high-risk markets face escalating costs of acquisition per student (e.g., through increased documentation checks, interviewing, and other activities aimed removing visa rejection risk). As Mr Dillon says: “This matters, as margins are already tighter at many lower-ranked providers.”

The massive impact of visa rejections and delays in processing

Students in the regions most affected by visa rejection rates are also the most likely to be experiencing delays in visa processing. Wonkhe’s associate editor, Jim Dickinson, reports:

“At some providers, reports suggested up to half of a winter cohort was still awaiting a decision despite a Confirmation of Acceptance for Studies (CAS) issued before Christmas – petitions described students stuck on “SLA not met” notifications weeks after submitting biometrics. The delays were reported to fall hardest on applicants from Pakistan, South Asia, and parts of Africa.”

(Editor’s note: “SLA not met” stands for “Service Level Agreement not met” and indicates that UK Visas and Immigration (UKVI) has failed to make a decision on the file within their standard processing timeframe.)

Higher rates of visa refusals and visa processing delays are prompting two related trends:

• Students from high-risk markets are increasingly withdrawing their applications so that their student profile is not marred by evidence of a rejection.

• Many universities are scaling back – or even stopping – student recruitment in those markets to avoid being sanctioned under new, stiffer Basic Compliance Assessment (BCA) rules. Among other benchmark requirements, institutions must stay within a 5% refusal rate range or risk penalisation including, at the extreme end, the removal of their license to enrol international students.

Death by a thousand cuts?

Mr Dickinson explains that dynamics such as visa rejections and processing delays for students from some countries are reinforcing the deterrent effect of more restrictive government policies:

“The contraction [of student flows] is being administered through the plumbing of the system – a delay here, a withdrawn application there, a compliance threshold that does the deciding, a salary floor that quietly closes a route.”

“Each lever is individually deniable. The aggregate is a bust delivered by stealth, with no single author and accountability that sits nowhere.”

Students pay a steep price, says Mr Dickinson:

“There is a bleak logic to it all. A withdrawn application doesn’t count as a refusal in the compliance metrics. So in a system that punishes refusals, the withdrawal route protects the institution’s number while the student absorbs the loss – the non-refundable flights, the priority fee that was never honoured, the place that evaporated. The delay creates the pressure – the withdrawal discharges it without leaving a mark on anyone’s record.”

Amidst these conditions, an increasing number of students from high-risk markets are realising that the doorway to study in the UK is narrowing.

For additional background, please see:

• “UK universities bracing for a further decline in international enrolments”
• “Universities urged to focus on factors they can control as policy settings continue to depress international student enrolments in the Big Four”

The post UK: Sponsored study visa issuances down, rejection rates up, and more appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

Lowest volume of visa applications in the past five years

The Home Office received -33% fewer sponsored study visa applications from students (main applicants) in January–April 2026 than in the same period in 2025. This follows a -21% decline in applications in Q4 2025 versus Q4 2024.

The chart below was published by Nous Group director in mid-May.

As the chart depicts, this year’s January–April visa application volume is the lowest in the past five years. It is -11% below the recent-year low for the same period in 2024, and in April 2026 alone, only 8,900 applications were received. This is down nearly -40% compared with April 2025.

What is driving the decline?

Visa applications from key markets dropped dramatically when the government announced in the summer of 2023 that most international students would no longer be able to bring their families with them to the UK as of January 2024.

However, demand began to pick up in 2025 as the shock wore off: in May 2025 alone, submissions from main applicants (i.e., students rather than dependants) were up +19% compared with May 2024.

This suggests that it wasn’t the dependants ban that prompted the past seven months of applications declines. Rather, many industry analysts believe the drop was spurred by a government announcement in May 2025 that universities would soon need to meet higher standards of compliance in order to continue to host (aka sponsor) international students. The three updated Basic Compliance Assessment (BCA) standards demand that institutions maintain:

1. A visa refusal rate of less than 5%
2. An enrolment rate of at least 95%
3. A course completion rate of at least 90%

The government then elaborated in January 2026 that failure to meet even one of the three benchmarks above would land institutions in the “red” or “amber” bands of a “red, amber, green” (RAG) assessment structure. Falling into “red” (e.g., exceeding 5% in visa rejections) can lead to a range of sanctions – the most extreme of which is that an institution has its licence to sponsor international students revoked.

The updated BCA thresholds (and associated RAG system) represent a much more stringent test of compliance than what they replace. found that had the updated benchmarks been in place in 2024, more than 20 universities would have failed at least one threshold and about 49,000 students might have been affected.

The immediate impact on applications

Following on the heels of the May 2025 announcement of the tightened BCA thresholds, the average visa approval rate for international students dropped to 85% in Q4 2025, down from 91% in Q4 2024. Universities were fully aware that the 85% approval rate is a full 10 percentage points below the upcoming BCA threshold of 95%.

For many, the lower average approval rate was the trigger for adopting a more cautious recruitment approach to high-growth markets with higher-than-average refusal rates.

As early as December 2025, some institutions hit the brakes entirely on recruiting in important emerging markets such as Bangladesh and Pakistan, countries where visa rejection rates hover between 18% and 22%. Many also adopted more a more careful approach to markets such as Nigeria, India, and Nepal, including:

• Extending fewer offers
• Checking documents more rigorously
• Holding more credibility interviews

A recent British Universities International Liaison Association (BUILA) survey found that around a third of surveyed UK universities reported curtailing recruitment in certain markets to reduce compliance risk.

The shift towards lower-risk markets continues, and the 1 June official implementation of the stricter BCA metrics will do nothing to halt this momentum.

High-risk markets are high-volume markets

Over the past couple of years, demand from the UK’s top two sources of students, India and China – as well as from the key emerging market of Nigeria (#4) – has been falling. The chart below details commencements from 2005–2025, and it highlights just how sharp the declines have been from India and Nigeria.

Strong demand from Nepal and Pakistan has been essential to mitigating declines from other top markets.

If the BCA compliance benchmarks continue to dampen UK universities’ confidence in recruiting in some Indian states with as well as in Nigeria, Pakistan, Nepal, and Bangladesh, the downward pressure on overall international commencements and enrolments could be severe. Collectively, according to HESA data, those five countries accounted for 39% of international enrolments in the UK in 2024/25. Looking at the entire student population (domestic and international), roughly 1 in 10 students were from India, Pakistan, Nigeria, Nepal, or Bangladesh in that academic year.

The impact on revenue and operations

Should international commencements fall again in the 2026/27 September intake, it will be devastating for many UK universities. On 19 May, the recruitment firm published an analysis of revenue sources across the higher education sector and found that “22 universities now earn more than half of all their income from overseas tuition … eight years ago, none did.”

Forecasts for coming years

The Office for Students (OfS), which is the independent regulator of higher education in England, released its on 14 May. Key inputs for the analysis are the self-reports and projections of 279 participating UK universities.

Of those universities, more than a third (36%) reported an operating deficit for 2024/25. On average, providers expect a small worsening of the financial picture in 2025/26 and then a rebound in 2026/27.

The OfS is skeptical of this forecast:

“Our assessment is that this projected recovery remains based on overly optimistic assumptions, particularly in the context of continued volatility in student recruitment.”

It notes that among responding universities, “non-UK entrants fell by -7.7% [in 2024/25], which was -9% below [providers’] forecast.”

Despite this decline, responding universities reported to the OfS that their forecast is for international undergraduate numbers to increase by +24.6% and postgraduate enrolments by +26.8% between 2024/25 and 2028/29.

The OfS warns that it would be financially imprudent to operate according to such an expectation, noting that “recent published visa data from the Home Office suggests a possible renewed decline in non-UK student numbers, particularly from key markets such as India and China.” The chart below is pulled from the report, and you’ll see that beginning in the fall of 2025 – as the BCA thresholds began to affect recruitment – international visa applications began to soften.

The OfS presented three financial scenarios in the report that “could happen if recruitment changes and providers take no mitigating action.”

Scenario 1 assumes no growth in international and domestic enrolments, Scenario 2 anticipates a modest reduction, and Scenario 3 describes a larger reduction of enrolments. The OfS summarises:

“Under the ‘no growth’ scenario, which assumes flat student recruitment from 2025/26 onwards, cumulative net income losses relative to forecast could reach £2.7 billion by 2028/29. Under this scenario 163 providers, representing 58.4% of the sector, would report a deficit. In the most severe scenario modelled, cumulative income losses increase to £4.2 billion, with deficits reported by up to 196 providers (70.3% of the sector as a whole).”

The report concludes: “Variations in student recruitment in 2024/25 and 2025/26 are prominent in the financial challenges facing the sector. Further volatility in recruitment, in 2026/27 and beyond, could present further significant challenges.”

For additional background, please see:

• “Foreign enrolments in UK higher education dipped again in fall 2025”
• “Narrowing bands of compliance: How the UK’s new RAG system will impact international student recruitment”
• “UK’s stiffening compliance regime already having an impact on international student recruitment”

The post UK universities bracing for a further decline in international enrolments appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

These trends are highlighted in results from the most recent by NAFSA, Oxford Test of English, and Studyportals. The survey asked respondents from over 254 universities across 36 countries about new international enrolments in the January–March 2026 intake; perceived barriers to enrolling students; and recruitment strategies.

The research found that universities in the Big Four are struggling with policy-induced enrolment pressures, but it also revealed that they are adapting recruitment strategies for their current context. Edwin van Rest, CEO of Studyportals, commented: “Universities that are agile, proactive and supportive of students are much better positioned to absorb visa disruption and sustain enrolment.”

About the research findings

The survey sample was heavily weighted towards the US, with 149 universities from the US compared with 39 in Europe, 24 in the UK, 13 in Canada, 9 from Australia, and 9 from the Asia-Pacific region (excluding Australia). In all, about three-quarters of responding universities were in the Big Four. For this reason, the regional breakdowns in the survey report are especially valuable.

There was also a Global Enrolment Benchmark Survey wave in January to March 2025. While apples-to-apples comparisons between the early-2025 and early-2026 waves cannot be made because of the waves’ slightly different samples, broad trends are definitely apparent.

New undergraduate enrolments

As shown in Chart 1 below, 69% of Canadian institutions reported fewer undergraduate students in the January 2026 intake. Considered alongside the 82% that reported a drop in the Q1 2025 survey wave, this marks two years of severe contraction.

In Q1 2026, 62% of US universities welcomed fewer new undergraduate students, a greater proportion than the 48% reporting the same in Q1 2025. This suggests that recruitment challenges have intensified in the US over the past year.

The undergraduate enrolment situation in Australia and the UK appears less dire. Under half of Australian (44%) institutions reported a falloff, and just as many (44%) said they had welcomed more new international students. The picture was more balanced in the UK, with 42% saying commencements were down, 37% reporting stability, and 21% enrolling more new students.

Meanwhile, Asian and European institutions are faring very well. Fully 82% of Asian institutions saw more new undergraduate students in Q1 2026 than in Q1 2025, and none of them reported drops. In Europe, almost half (47%) of responding universities reported a year-over-year increase, which is nearly double the proportion reporting a decline (25%).

Graduate trends

As shown in Chart 2 (below), around two-thirds of Australian, British, and American universities reported lower international postgraduate commencements in January 2026. The 2026 trend is worse for British institutions than in 2025, when only half said commencements were down, but it is stable in the US.

Canadian institutions are grappling with further deterioration at the postgraduate level in 2026. Fully 8 in 10 (80%) institutions reported declines (up from 71% in Q1 2025), and none reported increases.

Meanwhile, over half of Asian universities (55%) reported postgraduate commencement gains, as did 43% of European institutions.

Significant differences in Q1 2025 and Q1 2026 survey results

Chart 3 (below) shows the difference in average reported commencements between Q1 2025 and Q1 2026. European and Asian institutions welcomed considerably more new students in Q1 2026, especially at the bachelor’s level. Masters’ commencements were down significantly in Australia. In Canada and the US, intakes at both levels worsened considerably. Canadian undergraduate programmes were particularly affected, while in the US, the most severe reduction was at the master’s level. While less pronounced than in North America, a downward trend is also evident in the UK at both levels.

The most pressing issues

An overwhelming majority of respondents in the Big Four cited restrictive policies as the biggest obstacle they face (Chart 4 below). The full Australian sample (100%) picked this option, as did 84% in both Canada and the US and 71% in the UK. Policies were also the top challenge in Europe, but only 59% chose this response option.

In Asia, the top three cited issues did not include policies at all. Instead, cost of study/living, English-proficiency requirements, and academic requirements were the main challenges for Asian institutions.

What lies ahead

More than 4 in 10 universities in Australia, Canada, and the UK are planning budget cuts in the next 12 months, with over a third saying the same in the US (Chart 5 below). Close to a quarter of institutions in Australia and Canada are also planning to cut staff.

The relatively supportive policy environments in which Asian and European institutions are recruiting are reflected in their plans. Fully 64% of Asian institutions have more aggressive enrolment goals, as do 31% in Europe. In Asia, more than half (55%) intend to use more AI in their operations, and 26% of European institutions do as well. The mindset is clearly one of growth, while Big Four universities have their hands full with managing tough policy contexts and associated budget and staff cuts.

Across the board, however, institutions see diversification as a necessity this year (the most cited sample-wide priority at 37%).

Sector resilience and top strategies

The top strategies being used by universities to boost international enrolments are highlighted in Chart 6, below. Introducing new programmes; diversifying/expanding geographically; executing strong branding/marketing; and offering financial incentives and scholarships were the most cited institution-led initiatives.

In addition, a notable proportion of universities reported that they had introduced January start dates to “manage visa unpredictability and to capture students who would otherwise defer or drop out of the cycle.” The report notes:

“One global recruitment calendar rarely works well for all markets. Understanding demand by origin country can help to prioritise marketing and recruitment activities. Certain countries show a notably stronger preference for the January to March intake than their peers elsewhere.”

Of the Q1 2026 findings, Dr Fanta Aw, Executive Director and CEO of NAFSA, commented: “Despite an increasingly uncertain policy environment, the survey shows that institutions willing to innovate and adapt can still create meaningful pathways for student success and access …. Institutions can and must exercise greater agency to counter serious external forces.”

The study report adds:

“The right response to a shifting landscape is not to wait it out. It is to understand it better and move faster. Student demand for international education remains strong. The institutions that will capture it are the ones that treat uncertainty not as a reason to pause, but as a reason to think differently.”

For additional background, please see:

• “From the Big Four to the Big Fourteen”
• “Canada and the US are losing international student enrolments to Europe and Asia”
• “The four key trends that will shape international student mobility for the next decade”

The post Universities urged to focus on “factors they can control” as policy settings depress international student enrolments in the Big Four appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

The survey gathered responses from 211 international buyers and agents responsible for organising youth group travel to the UK, including school groups, educational tours, and language programmes. Just over half (54%) of the responding buyers and agents were located in Europe, with the balance based in non-European “long-haul markets.”

Half of the respondents reported that demand for group travel to the UK is weaker than in 2025, with a similar proportion (56%) indicating that the UK is now harder to sell than in the past. Nearly four in ten (37%) expect bookings to decline in 2026 with only 12% reporting stronger demand relative to 2025.

“While demand has not disappeared,” BETA adds, “the data suggests that conversion is being constrained by a combination of cost pressures and access barriers.”

The respondents referred to rising accommodation, transport, and programme fees in particular, alongside less favourable exchange rates against the British pound. They noted as well the increased administrative burden for schools and group travel organisers, particularly the friction introduced by requirements for visas, electronic travel authorisations (ETAs), and passports in the post-Brexit marketplace.

“Teachers are filling in tons of lists and doing too much paperwork,” said one respondent. “Organising school trips is becoming more time-consuming and complex than it needs to be,” added another.

At the same time, competition is increasing from other destinations in Europe where, in the words of one survey participant, “EU competitors are much cheaper with less strict entry requirements. Another said: “We are losing groups to destinations that are easier to access and more affordable.”

Finally, the survey observed an apparent impact from world events. As BETA explains, “Among responses received before late February, 45% reported weaker demand for 2026. This rose to 55% among those responding after the escalation of geopolitical tensions, indicating a clear impact on confidence and booking behaviour.”

The survey results also point to levers that would boost the UK’s attractiveness for international youth travel: greater price certainty or improved affordability for group bookings and especially streamlined visa and entry processes and a reduced administrative burden generally.

“What this data shows very clearly is that demand for the UK is still there, but it is becoming harder to convert that demand into bookings,” said BETA Executive Director Emma English. “International partners are telling us they are facing increasing challenges around cost, complexity and confidence.”

“This is a highly organised, group-based market, and small changes in policy or process can have a significant impact on whether a trip goes ahead or not. If we want to remain competitive internationally, we need to ensure the UK is as accessible, affordable and easy to navigate as possible for schools, students and the organisations that support them.”

The significance of that outlook is underscored by ongoing reporting from English UK, which makes it very clear that youth group travel plays a significant role in the ELT sector.

In the most recent full-year reporting (2024), junior students accounted for 62% of English language course enrolments in the UK, and 33% of all student weeks.

For additional background, please see:

• “UK ELT reports challenging enrolment trends continued through last quarter of 2025“
• “Economic impact of UK ELT estimated at nearly £2 billion“
• “UK ELT reports a decline in student weeks for 2024“

The post Survey finds “growing pressure” on youth group travel to UK this year appeared first on ���Ϲ��� Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

European students make up the largest share of all ELT learners in Malta (72%).

Modest uptick in student weeks but numbers are down

In 2025, total student weeks in Malta increased to 262,255, up +2.1% compared with 2024 levels. This is the second-highest level of weeks for the country’s 34 licensed ELT schools, and weeks are +9.6% higher than they were pre-pandemic in 2019.

Also up was the average length of stay: 3.4 weeks. This is a significant increase from 2.8% in 2019.

However, schools hosted -6% fewer students in 2025 compared with 2024, and the decline is -10% since 2019. In total, there were 76,065 ELT students in Malta in 2025, a decline of 5,000 students from 2024.

Of the students enrolled in 2025, 29% were under the age of 15, while 21% were 16 to 17 years of age. The 50+ age bracket was the only one to grow (+8.3% on 2024).

Malta is particularly popular among women, who account for nearly two-thirds of all learners (63%).

Regional trends

Given that weeks and average stay are up, and student numbers are down, there is a trend of students choosing longer courses versus shorter ones. This is because of the mix of student nationalities: Malta is becoming more popular in non-EU markets such as Brazil, Türkiye, and China. Because students from outside of Europe have to travel farther to get to Malta, they often stay for longer than EU students.

Non-EU numbers increased slightly from 21,125 to 21,430, while EU numbers dropped from 59,820 to 54,635.

Malta experienced notable year-over-year losses in students from its top market in Europe: Italy (-13.2%). This is significant given that Italians send so many more students to Malta than other countries do; they represent almost a quarter (23%) of all students. In 2025, there were 17,525 Italians in ELT courses, a slip from 20,180 the year before.

Non-European countries send fewer students than European countries, but non-EU students contribute a large proportion of weeks. Here, a worrisome sign was that Colombians spent -10.3% fewer weeks in Malta in 2025 (32,780) than in 2024. However, Brazil and France were up in weeks by +15.1% and +7.9%, respectively, helping to mitigate the drop from Colombia.

Students who stayed the longest in 2025 were Colombians, Chileans, and South Koreans (whose average stay was 12.1 weeks, 11.9 weeks, and 8.6 weeks, respectively).

A new challenge ahead

Malta’s ELT sector will soon feel the effect of two major EU border systems: the Entry/Exit System (EES), which launched last month, and the European Travel Information and Authorisation System (ETIAS) that is expected to become operational in Q4 2026. explains on its website how this will affect non-EU students considering Malta for ELT:

“EU nationals sit outside the scope of both systems … the new rules will bite on the non-EU learners who are currently propping up Malta’s weeks total. Students from Colombia, Brazil, Türkiye, Switzerland, China, and South Korea will face biometric registration on every entry and exit under EES. Most of these nationalities also fall within the 59 visa-exempt countries that will need an ETIAS authorisation from late 2026.”

ETIAS offers this advice to Malta’s schools and agents: “Agents and schools will need to brief non-EU students, particularly older learners unfamiliar with online applications, about the €20 ETIAS fee and processing windows that can stretch to 30 days for applicants called to interview.”

For additional background, please see:

• “Student weeks for Malta’s ELT sector surpassed pre-pandemic levels in 2023”
• “Non-EU markets boosting recovery of Malta’s English language training sector”

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Erasmus+ is the EU’s main programme for encouraging training across Europe in the areas of education, training, youth, and sport. The initiative is , with its 2021–27 budget (€26.2 billion) nearly double what it was in the 2014–20 period. The number of learners taking advantage of Erasmus+ has also nearly doubled from 2014. Erasmus+ says that the 2021-27 budget “will fund learning mobility experiences for roughly 1,275,000 participants and support more than 100,000 organisations across all sectors.”

In a 15 April , the UK government reassured the public that it “secured a 30% discount on the default contribution rate, delivering a fair deal for taxpayers while guaranteeing full participation in the programme.”

The expectation is that “100,000 people [will] benefit in the first year alone, including apprentices on placements in leading European companies, school groups taking part in cultural exchanges, and organisations collaborating on new cross-border initiatives.”

European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, welcomed the news:

“Europe and the UK have enjoyed mutually beneficial educational ties for centuries. Strengthening those ties further makes perfect sense on both sides – for our students, teachers, educational systems, economies and societies as a whole. I look forward to seeing the immense potential of this development being realised as soon as possible.”

British Council will lead the UK’s participation

The government has chosen the British Council to be the National Agency for Erasmus+ in the UK, and this will be finalised later this year by the European Commission.

Scott McDonald, Chief Executive of the British Council, offered a quote for the announcement:

“As the National Agency for Erasmus+, the British Council will work closely with the Department for Education, the Devolved Governments and the European Commission to make the most of the opportunities of the programme for the UK.”

Jamie Arrowsmith, Director of Universities UK International, spoke on behalf of his organisation:

“Universities UK International (UUKi) is delighted that the UK and EU governments have finalised the agreement which enables the UK to participate in Erasmus+ in 2027, and we welcome the appointment of the British Council as the UK’s National Agency for Erasmus+.”

Rapprochement with Europe

Joining Erasmus+ is one of many signals that the UK government is prioritising closer ties with Europe amid pronounced geopolitical shifts and as the damaging effects of Brexit on the economy become more and more apparent.

The press release states that as a result of rejoining the mobility programme, “UK institutions and communities will also once again welcome EU participants and the skills, diversity and culture they bring.”

A study for the has found that over the course of a decade, ending in 2025:

• UK GDP per capita was 6–8% lower than it would have been without Brexit
• Investment was 12–18% lower
• Employment was 3–4% lower
• Productivity was 3–4% lower

The Brexit government led by Boris Johnson had predicted there would be short-term losses from the departure from Europe. However, the research found that it considerably underestimated the long-term, ongoing losses.

The first UK-EU Summit happened in May of 2025, and it resulted in UK/EU agreements on food and drink, energy, emissions trading, security, and defence.

The press release’s working on the summit’s results reflect the current Starmer government’s belief in UK/European cooperation: “[The agreements] are helping to make people across the UK safer, more secure, and more prosperous.”

Speaking to in April, Prime Minister Starmer said: “We’re in a world where there’s massive conflict, great uncertainty, and I strongly believe the UK’s best interests are in a stronger, closer relationship with Europe.”

For additional background, please see:

• “British Council says student recruitment to UK higher education will get a boost this year from South Asia and the ‘Trump effect’“

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