Martijn is then joined by an expanded panel for a discussion on sustainable recruitment through a China-to-UK lens.

The panel includes Christina Ke, Managing Director of UOffer Global; Dave Amor, Founder and Director of Higher Insights; Jian Li, Deputy Director (Education) with the British Council; Cheryl Xu, Director of China Office for the University of Portsmouth; Kiran Patel, Senior Director Commercial and Deputy Head of China with The China-Britain Business Council; and Tony Lee, Chief Visionary Officer at 黑料官网.

The discussion occurs as the UK has solidified its position as the preferred study destination for Chinese students, recently overtaking the US on the strength of its strong higher education brand and the efficiency of its postgraduate models.

However, Chinese families are becoming increasingly results-oriented, prioritising employability and return on investment over rankings alone, while the UK government鈥檚 International Education Strategy has shifted the focus toward “sustainable” growth.

This creates a new landscape where value, student experience, and strict compliance are paramount, and our panel considers what this means for UK recruitment in China going forward.

You can listen right now in the player below, and we encourage you to subscribe via your favourite podcast app in order to receive future episodes automatically.

For additional background, please see:

• “黑料官网 Podcast: Are you using the right digital channels to reach international students?“

The post 黑料官网 Podcast: Sustainable international student recruitment from a UK-China perspective appeared first on 黑料官网 Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

Enrolments were especially down of students from 鈥渉igh-risk鈥� markets (i.e., markets where a high level of fraudulent applications or non-compliance with visa rules are expected). More than 8 in 10 universities reported declines from Pakistan, with an average reduction of 75%. Enrolments were also down significantly from India and Bangladesh.

What鈥檚 behind the decline?

As we are seeing across the other Big Four countries (Australia, Canada, and the US), visa rejections by the government 鈥� as well as anticipated visa rejections on the part of universities 鈥� are disproportionately affecting students from the Global South.

In June, the government will introduce a compliance regime in which universities that do not maintain a visa refusal rate of under 4% will be marked 鈥渁mber鈥� (as opposed to green) and prevented from increasing their international enrolments. This is fuelling many universities to adjust their recruiting in emerging markets. About a third said they had stopped recruiting in some markets and the same proportion said they now ask for higher deposits or conduct more rigorous financial checks.

At the same time, 6 in 10 universities reported that they experienced more visa rejections in January 2026 than in January 2025, and many were concerned about the reasons for this:

• 41% cited unexplained delays or interview scheduling problems;
• Over a third cited less convincing reasons for refusals that were inconsistent with applicant quality.

It is fair to say that genuine students in high-risk markets face discrimination based on their nationality.

It is also fair to say that universities are caught between a rock and a hard place because they are naturally interested in remaining compliant with government rules. When they see the government refusing high numbers of students from some markets, it is a signal that recruiting from those markets may tip them into the upcoming 鈥渁mber鈥� zone.

BUILA says:

鈥淸We are] urging the Government to use 鈥榓mber鈥� ratings as an internal warning measure rather than the point at which recruitment sanctions are applied. And [we are] calling for the traffic light system to better distinguish between factors within an institution鈥檚 control and those driven by external or systemic issues, such as visa processing delays.鈥�

Chair Andrew Bird adds:

鈥淭his survey shows universities narrowing recruitment simply to manage risk, at a time when they are also facing higher refusal rates from UK Visas and Immigration, delays and inconsistent decision-making outside their control.

The UK already operates one of the toughest student visa compliance regimes in the world, and our members fully support protecting its integrity. But the Government keeps shifting the goalposts. The proposed traffic-light system is being implemented far more harshly than originally intended.

If introduced as currently proposed, the new system risks significant reputational damage to our world leading higher education sector. It could deter genuine students from applying and signal a problem to global markets where none exists, at a time when competition for international students is intensifying.”

No choice but to turn to alternative destinations

Consider these statistics about the chances of certain South Asian student being approved for a study visa in a Big Four destination (and note also that in the UK in 2025, the average visa rejection rate was only 12%).

• In 2025, Indian students faced a 61% and 74% rejection rate in and the US, respectively.
  
• Bangladeshi students encounter rejection rates of 51% in Australia so far in 2026, and almost three-quarters (73%) were refused by the US in 2025. In 2025, 36% were rejected by the (up 15 points over 2024).
  
• In February 2026, more than half (53%) of Pakistani students applying to Australia were rejected, as were 71% by the US. In 2025, more than a quarter (26%) were denied a visa by the (up 8 points).
  
• More than 8 in 10 Nepali students were refused in the US in 2025, as were 4 in 10 applying to Australia in February 2026. In 2025, 16% of applications from Nepal were refused in the compared with 2% in 2024.

As we have reported recently, these trends 鈥� as well as similar ones for African students 鈥� can only prompt a fundamental reshaping of global student mobility away from the Big Four.

For additional background, please see:

• 鈥淣arrowing bands of compliance: How the UK鈥檚 new RAG system will impact international student recruitment鈥�
• 鈥淰isa rejections climb in the US for international students from key markets including India鈥� 
• 鈥淎ustralia: Student visa refusal rates reach record high amid weakening demand from China鈥� 

The post UK: 7 in 10 universities report declining international postgraduate enrolments; visa rejections are part of the story appeared first on 黑料官网 Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

The existing structure for student visas in the UK provides an important backdrop for these changes. In brief, to sponsor a student visa, a UK university or school must be a registered student sponsor. This entitles the institution to issue a Confirmation of Acceptance for Studies (CAS) which is in turn required for the student’s visa application.

The updated published on 7 April 2026 (“Document 2: Sponsorship Duties”) includes a new section that outlines the responsibilities of sponsor-institutions pertaining to education agents.

The updated rules carry two main implications for sponsor-institutions in their work with agents.

First, agency details must now be included on the Confirmation of Acceptance for Studies (CAS): “Sponsors must record agent details on the CAS where the sponsor has used an agent in the recruitment of the sponsored student.”

Second, sponsors must not only commit to the Agent Quality Framework (AQF), but be able to demonstrate that compliance: “All student sponsors using recruitment agents must retain evidence of how they are managing agents in line with the AQF and The National Code of Ethical Practice for UK Education Agents, as applicable to the school, further education, pathway and higher education sectors.鈥�

Agency details on the CAS

Related guidance from outlines the agency details that must now be included in the CAS.

This amounts to:

• Agent company name (the formal legal name as used in the agency contract)
• Agent contact name (indicating the primary agent contract contact)
• Agent address (which refers to the specific office or branch from which the student was recruited)

The Home Office indicates otherwise that this provision applies to all cases in which the sponsoring institution was engaged with an agent on the student file, “even if this is a one-off recruitment and/or the recruitment was done without a formal ongoing contract with the agent or third party.”

In the event that a sub agent was involved with the file, the CAS must provide details of the primary agent (as opposed to the sub agent).

If an agent or advisor was engaged directly by the student for application support or other advisory, and where “that third party was not used by the sponsor as part of the recruitment process,” the agency details need not be included in the CAS.

Moving beyond voluntary compliance

The 7 April guidance effectively enshrines the Agent Quality Framework (AQF) for sponsor-institutions in the UK, a distinct progression from what has essentially been a voluntary compliance regime to this point.

The Home Office sets out that, “All student sponsors using recruitment agents must have committed to adhering to the key principles of the (AQF).”

Further, sponsors are now required to document how they are managing agents in line with the provisions of the AQF and .

What this will mean in practice is not yet clear, but it does set up a requirement for more structured and systemic reporting as to how a sponsor is in compliance with the AQF and The National Code. In broad terms, the provisions of The National Code extend additional reporting and documentation requirements to agents, along with specific training requirements, including completion of the .

Commenting on the updated guidance on , Avinav Sharma, Executive Director, Global Partnerships at MSM Unify, said:

“For agents and counsellors, the message is equally direct. If you have not completed your UK knowledge training and signed the national code of ethical practice, you are operating without the credentials this framework now demands. Your digital badge and certificate are no longer nice-to-haves. They are proof points that your sponsor partners will need to show UKVI鈥his is the UK government signalling that the recruitment channel will be held to the same compliance standard as the institutions themselves鈥s your agency ready for this level of scrutiny?”

For additional background, please see:

• “Narrowing bands of compliance: How the UK鈥檚 new RAG system will impact international student recruitment“
• “UK鈥檚 stiffening compliance regime already having an impact on international student recruitment“
• “How the UK鈥檚 Agent Quality Framework will shape the future of agent training“
• “Who decides about quality? Education agents and the question of increased regulation“

The post UK Home Office publishes updated visa sponsor guidance for “agents and third parties” appeared first on 黑料官网 Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

The guidance includes details of a new red-amber-green (RAG) banding scheme that sets up what could be, as Jim Dickinson wrote on , “a system more punitive than many in the sector were expecting.”

The regulatory background

In order to apply for a student visa for the UK, an international student must first obtain a Confirmation of Acceptance for Studies (CAS) document. Only a sponsor 鈥� that is, an educational institution licensed by the Home Office to sponsor international students for visas 鈥� may issue a CAS. In effect, the sponsor is vouching for the student-applicant and his/her eligibility to study in the UK.

That sponsor status places a number of obligations on the institution, and particularly that a sponsor must apply for a (BCA) every 12 months.

When UK Visas and Immigration (UKVI) carries out the BCA, it currently assesses the sponsor based on the following thresholds for three “core requirements”:

• a visa refusal rate of less than 10%;
• an enrolment rate of at least 90%; and
• a course completion rate of at least 85%.

The linkage between the three is quite explicit: the institution is expected to carefully evaluate each applicant to determine that they are eligible for admission but also, once admitted, will have a high likelihood of following through to take up their spot in their intended programme of study and then go on to successfully complete that programme. In other words, the university or college’s ability to continue to admit international students rests on its ability to recruit qualified, bona fide students that are committed to their intended programme of study.

Sponsor institutions that fall outside of those benchmarks are subject to a variety of sanctions, the most extreme of which could lead to the revocation of the sponsor license 鈥� meaning in effect that the institution could no longer admit foreign students.

The new BCA thresholds

A May 2025 UK government immigration white paper set out a number of new requirements for UK institutions, including more stringent compliance thresholds. Specifically, sponsoring institutions must now maintain:

• a visa refusal rate of less than 5%;
• an enrolment rate of at least 95%; and
• a course completion rate of at least 90%.

The draft guidance from the Home Office indicates that the first two of those new compliance benchmarks will come into effect on 1 June 2026. The course completion threshold will remain at 85% until June 2027, at which point it will rise to 90%.

RAG time

The Home Office guidance sets out that, “A sponsor鈥檚 performance against the three metrics composing the BCA will be rated in a Red-Amber-Green (RAG) banding system.”

Essentially, sponsors with a red rating are operating at or below one or more of the BCA requirements. An amber rating indicates that the sponsor is in danger of non-compliance with respect to one or more of the key benchmarks, whereas a green rating means that the institution is more comfortably within the compliance threshold.

The margin for error, however, is notably slim across the key BCA metrics. The following table summarises the band ranges for each requirement.

“Look at the width of the amber band 鈥� or rather, the near-total absence of it,” says Wonkhe’s Dickinson. “On refusals it鈥檚 a single percentage point. On enrolment it鈥檚 a single percentage point. On completion it鈥檚 two. The amber band is extremely narrow.” In other words, the distance to travel between green and red is very narrow indeed.

The significance of those very tight thresholds is driven home by another key aspect of the RAG system: there is no overall scoring across metrics; rather, the sponsoring institution’s rating will be based on their lowest-rated BCA requirement.

The Home Office guidance sets out that: “The RAG rating system is not an aggregate. A sponsor鈥檚 rating shall be determined by their lowest rated metric, which will take precedence over any other metric鈥檚 score. For example, if the sponsor falls into the red category for their refusal rate, yet falls into the green category for both their enrolment and completion rates, they will receive a red RAG rating.”

Against the advice of sector stakeholders, including Universities UK, the Home Office also intends to make sponsor ratings public, indicating that “a sponsor鈥檚 RAG rating will be published on the student sponsor register.” This provision will apply to the first BCA assessment cycle after 1 June 2026, meaning that public ratings won’t likely be available for a critical mass of UK higher education institutions until spring or summer 2027.

Recruitment impacts

“We welcome stronger compliance in principle, but the cumulative impact on UK recruitment should not be underestimated,” says Peter Skillen, the Director of Governance, Risk, Assurance, and Compliance at Study Group. “What may appear to be a technical tightening on paper could have a real chilling effect in practice. The government鈥檚 white paper proposed raising each BCA metric by five percentage points and introducing a new RAG banding system, but the draft guidance appears to go further in the way that framework is operationalised. With narrow amber bands, a lowest-metric-wins approach, and final warnings that can remain active for five future Basic Compliance Assessments, institutions may become increasingly selective in their recruitment behaviour, particularly in emerging markets. The risk is that the system becomes more draconian and overbearing for institutions, compelling them to carry out ever more stringent compliance checks and absorb growing administrative burdens. The unintended consequence may be a UK system that is less accessible to genuine international students, with some institutions deciding that recruitment from certain countries is no longer viable.”

The new BCA compliance thresholds were first announced almost a year ago in the government white paper in May 2025. In the months since, there have been a number of signals that institutions are both anticipating and responding to a more stringent compliance regime.

There is after all a significant exercise of risk management at the heart of the CAS-sponsor-compliance model as the three key BCA metrics rest a great deal of responsibility for student performance and student outcomes with the institution itself.

“The rationale behind the new RAG scheme is hard to argue with: stronger compliance should help ensure universities issue CAS only to genuine, well鈥憄repared students, protecting educational standards and the UK鈥檚 international reputation,” says Diana Beech, the Assistant Vice-President (Policy & Government Affairs) at City St. George’s, University of London.

However, the scheme鈥檚 razor鈥憈hin thresholds and ‘lowest鈥憁etric鈥憌ins’ approach are not without risk. With so little margin for normal variation, even responsible institutions could be pushed into the red 鈥� and publishing these ratings will only intensify that pressure. The result may be overly cautious recruitment, fewer opportunities for legitimate students, and a narrowing of global engagement.

Enhanced compliance matters. But it needs a framework that is proportionate, supportive, and avoids penalising compliant institutions for factors they cannot fully control.鈥�

Indeed, some institutions are already responding reducing or suspending recruiting activities in countries that are seen to be associated with higher risk. “Higher risk” in this sense being defined as markets where students are more likely to not follow through on their study plans or to complete their programmes of study 鈥� often for reasons relating to academic background, language skills, or financial difficulty.

In July 2025, for example, London Metropolitan University said that it would suspend admissions for Bangladeshi students. Deputy Vice-Chancellor Gary Davies has attributed the decision to high rates of visa refusals for Bangladeshi students in particular, which were putting the university’s compliance at risk.

Earlier this month, the University of Derby said that it too would suspend student recruitment from Pakistan and Bangladesh over concerns that visa refusal rates for applicants from the two countries were simply too high.

Other UK institutions have reportedly 鈥� although less publicly 鈥� made similar decisions to limit or suspend admissions from specific markets and/or for particular fields of study where there is seen to be undue compliance risk.

On their face, any such moves are extreme measures and regrettable in that they limit opportunities for bona fide students from markets that are seen to have high risk levels attached. But they also perfectly illustrate the dilemma that UK universities now face under the new BCA benchmarks. With such narrow RAG bands 鈥� a green rating requires, for example, that universities maintain a visa refusal rate under 4% 鈥� an individual university must either take additional steps to more fully qualify prospective students before issuing a CAS or they have to limit (or even suspend) recruitment in markets or channels that are judged to have greater compliance risk.

Needless to say, each of those broad courses of action carries significant additional costs 鈥� in terms of real expenses, risk, or foregone opportunities 鈥� for institutions, partners, and students alike. In the meantime, the Home Office has indicated that it is actively engaged in discussions across the sector around the draft guidance and that final guidance and details for implementation of the more stringent BCA requirements will be published shortly.

For additional background, please see:

• “UK鈥檚 stiffening compliance regime already having an impact on international student recruitment“
• “UK sets out new immigration strategy, will reduce Graduate Route work term to 18 months“
• “UK: International student numbers fall for second year, especially in postgraduate programmes“
• “How the UK鈥檚 Agent Quality Framework will shape the future of agent training“
• “Who decides about quality? Education agents and the question of increased regulation“

The post Narrowing bands of compliance: How the UK’s new RAG system will impact international student recruitment appeared first on 黑料官网 Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

The Q4 data reveals an overall year-over-year increase from the same quarter in 2024, but an even deeper, long-term drop from pre-COVID volumes. The number of student weeks fell by -21% from Q4 2024 to the last quarter of 2025. Comparing the same quarter from last year to 2019, the declining volume 鈥� at -43% 鈥� is even more severe.

The bright spot, as has generally been the case over the last several years, is in the junior category. While junior weeks are still down by -35% from the pre-COVID benchmark in Q4 2019, they rose by 5% from Q4 2024 to Q4 2025 on the strength of stronger bookings from Spain and Chile.

The additional chart below reflects the absolute changes in student weeks volumes for each quarter in 2025, compared to the same quarter in 2024 and broken down into the junior and adult categories.

General English programmes remain by far the most popular course type across UK ELT, accounting for 89% of junior bookings and 88% of adult enrolments in the last quarter of 2025.

Saudi Arabia continues to be the leading sending market for UK ELT, followed by Tu虉rkiye, Japan, Brazil, South Korea to round out the top five.

Stepping back to look at other important segment characteristics for 2025 as a whole, English UK notes that nearly eight in ten ELT enrolments (77%) during the year came via an agent, and that a similar proportion (78%) were for individual (as opposed to group) bookings.

For additional background, please see:

• “UK ELT reports declining enrolments for first half of 2025“
• “Global ELT volumes dipped in 2024“

The post UK ELT reports challenging enrolment trends continued through last quarter of 2025 appeared first on 黑料官网 Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

That outlook relies in part on the British Council’s projection that international enrolment in the United States will soften throughout 2026. “The Trump effect is already showing up in the data, with enrolments down by 17,000 in December 2025 from the same month a year prior. This data likely undercounts the full effect鈥ith most of these enrolment decisions having been made before Trump鈥檚 re-election in November 2024. The downturn will likely become more apparent in 2026.”

Indeed, new data released this week by the US Department of State reveals that F-1 visa grants fell by -36% in 2025 during the key May-August period. Some of the contributing factors in that decline were the Trump administration’s nearly month-long suspension of visa interviews beginning in May 2025; its revocation of thousands of student visas; and its foreshadowing of key rule changes affecting the duration of student visas and post-study rights for international students.

The report concludes that that weakening demand for study in the US opens up new opportunities to recruit students for UK institutions, and especially “to attract greater numbers of STEM students who typically prefer the USA over the UK.”

The most important growth market

The British Council also sees South Asia as a driver of growth for UK institutions in 2026, both for onshore recruitment and in terms of enrolments in UK transnational education programmes in the region.

The report notes that, “Across South Asia, issuance of UK student visas is on the rise, reversing a downward trend that began in 2023. Through the first three quarters of 2025, the UK issued 26,000 more visas to students from South Asia than in the same period in 2024, far outpacing growth in other regions. In Bangladesh and Nepal, the UK issued roughly twice as many student visas in 2025 than the year before; in Pakistan, issuance of UK student visas is at all-time highs. In India, there remains substantial room for further growth in 2026.”

However, there is also a note of caution around the outlook for South Asia, and a call for “more sustainable engagement strategies” so as not to perpetuate a boom and bust cycle of recruitment in the region, and especially where rapidly rising student numbers might contribute to more restrictive policy in the UK.

Contrasting data points

The British Council’s outlook for the year could be contrasted against some countervailing indicators, including that study visa applications reached a low ebb in January 2026. Only 19,800 students applied for a UK visa that month, the lowest volume in four years.

That dip in application numbers comes on the heels of two consecutive years of declining foreign enrolment in the UK, where student numbers fell by -6% in 2024/25 alone.

Forward-looking data from IDP finds that the UK also has the lowest proportion of students planning to apply within the next six months (when compared to other major destinations). That lagging position is attributed in part to a reduction in the term of the Graduate Route 鈥撀爐he post-study work period for eligible foreign graduates in the UK. As of 1 January 2027, the Graduate Route will be reduced from the current two years to 18 months.

Speaking to this week, Rachel MacSween, IDP’s director of partnerships and stakeholder engagement said, “These shifts matter: post鈥憇tudy employment remains one of the biggest factors in where students choose to study鈥hile we don鈥檛 yet have the full picture on applications, we know students are sensitive to visa uncertainty and many are making decisions earlier in the cycle to feel secure.鈥�

For additional background, please see:

• “UK: International student numbers fall for second year, especially in postgraduate programmes“
• “UK鈥檚 new international education strategy seeks to build education exports to 拢40 billion by 2030“
• “UK to implement reduced Graduate Route from January 2027“

The post British Council says student recruitment to UK higher education will get a boost this year from South Asia and the “Trump effect” appeared first on 黑料官网 Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

The 2024/25 academic year was the second consecutive year in which overall foreign enrolments fell.

In total, UK universities enrolled 685,565 international students, the vast majority of whom came from outside the EU (621,970). A smaller proportion came from the EU (63,500, down -15.7% from the previous year).

In all, 24% of all students in UK higher education are from other countries.

The data is from the (HESA).

Less demand from the EU

The number of new non-EU students (aka 鈥渆ntrants鈥�) in the UK fell by -5.5% and the number of EU entrants declined by -4.1% in 2024/25.

Each decline tells a story of how government policies affect international student demand. Policies attached to the Brexit in 2020 have dampened demand from the EU for five years, while policies including the 鈥淒ependants Ban鈥� enacted in 2024 have had more of a two-year effect on non-EU demand.

For example, if we look specifically at the HESA data on 鈥渘on-entrants鈥� (i.e., students who did not enrol for the first time in 2024/25), there was a -22.5% decline in EU students in 2024/25. This is a sharper decline than for EU 鈥渆ntrants鈥� (-4%) and overall EU enrolments (-16%). The distinction indicates that overall EU enrolments have been falling for years 鈥� in contrast to the two-year decline we see for EU enrolments prompted by more recent policies.

Though EU students compose a much smaller proportion of the overall student population in UK universities (2%) than non-EU students (22%), it is notable that there is demonstrably less demand from Europe for study in the UK than in the past. Since Brexit, EU students have paid the same tuition fees as other international students, a change that precipitated the fall in demand. HESA notes: 鈥淣ine of the top 10 EU countries have declined since 2020/21.鈥� The exception is Ireland.

Non-EU decline especially pronounced at the taught postgraduate level

At the postgraduate level, there was an overall -3% decrease in new international students relative to 2023/24 (-10% for non-EU students, -8% for EU students).

The decline was mostly prompted by falling non-EU demand for postgraduate 鈥渢aught鈥� programmes. As of 2024, postgraduate taught students from abroad have not been permitted to bring their families with them to the UK 鈥� a policy informally known as the 鈥淒ependants Ban.鈥� By contrast, international students can bring their family with them if they enrol in postgraduate 鈥渞esearch鈥� programmes. (For a quick understanding of the difference between 鈥渢aught鈥� and 鈥渞esearch鈥� programmes, please see our earlier coverage of this issue.

The Dependants Ban is much more influential on non-EU enrolments than EU enrolments because many of the UK鈥檚 top non-EU markets have the students who are most likely to want to bring their families with them (and to immigrate rather than just study).

Here, highlights the effect of this policy distinction between taught and research programmes and the differing motivations among EU versus non-EU students. Remembering that research postgraduate programmes do not fall under the Dependants Ban and thus allow students to bring their dependants with them:

• EU enrolments in research programmes decreased y-o-y by -12%, continuing a five-year pattern of decline for this level and category of study.
• Non-EU enrolments in research programmes increased y-o-y by +10.5%, a notable jump when you look at the chart below showing five-year trends. Interestingly, and again speaking of non-EU enrolments, this increase coincides with almost the same rate of decrease for taught postgraduate programmes (-10%).

As we reported in December 2025, the government is aware of the spike in demand from several non-EU markets for research-oriented programmes and is considering whether it will expand the Dependants Ban to include this category of programme.

What鈥檚 happening in terms of top non-EU markets?

HESA reports:

“Entrant numbers from India (-12%), China (-5%), and Nigeria (-33%) all fell for the second year in a row, while numbers from Pakistan increased by 5%. Nepal entered the top five countries of origin for non-EU entrants to UK higher education, overtaking the United States, following changes to visa regulations in Australia. 17,385 Nepalese students started UK HE courses in 2024/25, more than ten times the 1,165 students who entered in 2020/21.鈥�

The top 10 non-EU markets for the UK based on 2024/25 enrolment data are:

• India
• China
• Pakistan
• Nigeria
• Nepal
• US
• Hong Kong
• Malaysia
• Bangladesh
• Saudi Arabia

Transnational education (TNE)

The UK鈥檚 new International Education Strategy emphasises the role TNE will play in boosting education export earnings to the target of 拢40 billion per year by 2030. The HESA data show that the overseas delivery of UK programmes is may soon eclipse the delivery of onshore programmes to international students.

鈥淭he number of transnational education students studying wholly overseas for UK qualifications rose by 8% in 2024/25 to 669,950, coming close to the number of international students studying in the UK (685,565). The total number of TNE students has risen by 37% since 2020/21 and includes distance learners, students attending overseas campuses of UK providers, and students studying for UK qualifications at foreign universities.鈥�

HESA data confirms industry-reported trends in 2025

In a November 2025 survey conducted by the British Universities International Liaison Association (BUILA), 42 of 69 responding universities (61%) reported a decrease in postgraduate commencements for the academic year beginning September 2025.

The respondents indicated that foreign enrolments were down -6% year-over-year.

This follows declines revealed in BUILA’s fall 2024 survey, in which 80% of responding institutions reporting falling international postgraduate numbers and as well as a -20% decrease across levels.

For additional background, please see:

• 鈥�UK: Rules changes could be coming for master of research programmes鈥�
• 鈥�UK鈥檚 new international education strategy seeks to build education exports to 拢40 billion by 2030鈥�
• 鈥�Foreign enrolments in UK higher education dipped again in fall 2025鈥�

The post UK: International student numbers fall for second year, especially in postgraduate programmes appeared first on 黑料官网 Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

No targets for international students onshore

The 2019 strategy focused on growth with a goal to reach 600,000 international students by 2030. It took one year to achieve that target, with 605,130 EU and non-EU students studying in UK universities in 2020/21. That number has since burgeoned to over 700,000, accounting for 23% of all students and 23% of university income in the UK.

The new national strategy, published 20 January 2026, balances a continued commitment to (1) hosting international students at home and abroad and (2) reducing net migration. Those aims are often in opposition, and many governments have struggled to accomplish both.

The new strategy retains the Graduate Route, but the decision to reduce the post-study work right to 18 months in 2027 stands firm. So too does the so-called Dependants Ban, which prevents most international students from bringing accompanying family members with them to the UK.

Ambition is to increase education export income

There is no longer a target number of foreign students, but there is nevertheless a numeric target: to see UK education export income rise to 拢40 billion per year by 2030. The intention is to reach this target by prioritising transnational education (TNE), an area in which the UK is a world leader. More than 620,000 students across 188 countries are currently enrolled in a UK higher education programme overseas.

As a natural extension of TNE expansion, the strategy emphasises removing barriers to educational partnerships with other countries and institutions abroad:

鈥淲e will champion the UK as a trusted global partner in research, science and technology by strengthening international collaboration, showcasing UK excellence, and leveraging our global networks to enhance the UK鈥檚 international standing.鈥�

Priority countries for partnerships and TNE continue to be India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, and Vietnam. The UK鈥檚 International Education Champion, Sir Steve Smith, is also exploring collaborations with Brazil, Mexico, and Pakistan.

Other priority areas are English-language training (ELT), skills-based education, and edtech. The UK鈥檚 ELT sector contributes massively to the economy, injecting about 拢996 million in direct revenue (US$1.3 billion) in 2024 and 拢2 billion (US$2.66 billion) when indirect impacts are also considered.

New sectoral group formed to guide strategies and partnerships

A new Education Sector Action Group has been formed to formally see higher education providers join the International Education Champion, Steve Smith, as well as 鈥渒ey strategic partners such as the British Council,鈥� in guiding strategies and problem-solving. The strategy states:

鈥淭his reformed Ministerially chaired forum will bring together industry, government, and representative bodies from across the education sector to tackle key concerns and identify opportunities for partnerships. Each representative will lead on an action plan, published within the first 100 days of appointment to ESAG, outlining how their members will support delivery of the strategies.鈥�

TNE allows for expansion without increasing immigration

By expanding the UK鈥檚 transnational footprint, the government is clearly trying to increase education-related export revenues while avoiding bringing in too many students for the public鈥檚 comfort. in 2023 and 2024 found that more than half of the population wanted to see immigration reduced. The main driver of this sentiment was upset over the number of asylum seekers coming to the UK on small boats; by contrast, more than half wanted to see the number of highly skilled workers such as doctors and nurses increase.

In 2025, the Labour government brought net migration down by restricting the visa access of foreign students鈥� dependants and skilled workers, but there was in small boat arrivals. The number of new international students coming to the UK are in decline.

Sustainability and quality at home

For international students studying in the UK, the strategy prioritises sustainable, responsible international recruitment:

鈥淲e will continue to sustainably recruit high-quality international students from a diverse range of countries, helping them become global changemakers. We will [put] student experience, quality outcomes, and responsible recruitment at the heart of our approach.

We will also encourage sector-led initiatives to support the integrity of the UK鈥檚 immigration system, such as the Agent Quality Framework (AQF), to help tackle the risk of poor practices, protect students, and drive improved standards in the recruitment of international higher education students.

In addition, the strategy supports universities in 鈥渄iversifying their recruitment, reducing reliance on any single country and strengthening cultural exchange on UK campuses.鈥�

Industry reaction

Speaking for the higher education sector, Jamie Arrowsmith, Director of Universities UK International, welcomed the new Strategy and said it reflected industry concerns and ambition:

鈥淭he publication of the UK Government鈥檚 new International Education Strategy is an important moment, and we welcome the renewed commitment to fostering the global reach, reputation and impact of our universities.

The strategy reflects many of the priorities we set out in our Blueprint for Change and represents a positive and holistic vision of the role universities play in the UK鈥檚 global success. Importantly, it recognises the close relationship between education and research and makes a positive case for the value of international experiences for UK students alongside the expansion of transnational education and the importance of sustainable international student recruitment.鈥�

The vision that the government has today set out will help to enhance the central role that our universities play in building the UK鈥檚 soft power and ensure that our universities are drivers of opportunity and innovation globally. We look forward to working closely with government and our universities to turn these ambitions into action.鈥�

For additional background, please see:

• 鈥�The UK is quickly expanding its TNE footprint in India鈥�
• 鈥�UK transnational enrolments poised to surpass onshore students this decade鈥�
• 鈥�UK ELT reports declining enrolments for first half of 2025鈥�
• 鈥�UK to implement reduced Graduate Route from January 2027鈥�

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