We reported last month on another important factor affecting UK student visa issuance: withdrawals. Indeed, there have been growing indications in recent months that the number of withdrawn visa applications has been rising quickly.

There appear to be a couple of factors at work. On the one hand, students may choose to withdraw in the face of lengthy processing delays or out of concern that they would have a visa refusal on their record. On the other hand, institutions may withdraw a student’s Confirmation of Acceptance for Studies (CAS) if they feel the visa application could be rejected.

This is all happening of course in the context of the heightened compliance requirements under the UK’s Basic Compliance Assessment (BCA) framework and its accompanying Red-Amber-Green (RAG) banding system. As of 1 June 2026, the RAG system obliges UK institutions to maintain a visa refusal rate of less than 5%. Universities whose refusal rates reach above that benchmark can be subject to sanctions or even to the suspension of their license to sponsor international students.

The stakes, to say the least, are high. And that underscores the growing role that withdrawn visa applications appear to be playing this year. Home Office data on the clearance outcomes for student visa applicants highlights that, for first time in decades, there were more student visa applications withdrawn in Q1 2026 than there were applications refused.

Writing in newsletter, Spencer Withrington explains:

“Why withdraw rather than be refused? Delays and incentives, on both sides. Processing ran badly behind on the January intake, hitting applicants from South Asia and parts of Africa hardest, with some students still waiting weeks after submitting their biometrics. A student facing a likely refusal, or a start date they will now miss, is often better off withdrawing than carrying a refusal on their record. Universities have the same incentive, and frequently withdraw the [CAS] themselves, because a withdrawn application does not count against their compliance rating and a refused one does.”

This has not been widely understood among students or stakeholders, but a university may withdraw a CAS at their discretion, if, for example, the student has missed important deadlines or has not paid required tuition deposits or filed any outstanding documents. An institution might also move to withdraw a CAS if they discover inconsistencies in the student’s documents or if concerns otherwise arise in internal credibility checks conducted by the university.

The CAS is withdrawn when the issuing institution cancels it with UKVI (UK Visas and Immigration). Once it has been cancelled, the CAS can no longer be used to support a student’s visa application. The university must notify UKVI in such cases; the student may or may not be notified.

A related analysis from points out that the surge in visa application withdrawals in Q1 was especially concentrated among students from South Asia, and from Pakistan in particular: “Prospective students from Pakistan shouldered 43% of all withdrawals. Additionally, only eight student populations withdrew over 50 applications,” including those indicated in the following chart.

“Pakistani students were also among the most affected by the UK government’s processing delays for the January 2026 intake,” adds ApplyBoard. “These delays were largely driven by attempts to clear an application backlog and run additional checks on students from populations considered more likely to stay in the UK beyond their allotted time or claim asylum. While the government encouraged UK institutions to extend their last day of acceptance for students still waiting on a visa decision, some institutions reported that as many as 50% of their students’ visa decisions were outstanding as admission deadlines neared.”

In a situation like that, where every visa refusal counts and where a few too many can tip an institution into an amber or red RAG band, it is easy to understand why both institutions and students would choose to trigger a withdrawal.

This is a significant development, says Mr Withrington, because “it changes recruitment behaviour directly. A CAS withdrawn before the visa decision drops out of the refusal-rate sum entirely. For a provider sitting near the 5% line, the difference between a refused application and a withdrawn one is the difference between a metric that bites and one that does not. That is an uncomfortable incentive the rules have now codified.”

For additional background, please see:

• “UK: Sponsored study visa issuances down, rejection rates up, and more“
• “Narrowing bands of compliance: How the UK’s new RAG system will impact international student recruitment“
• “What is happening to student mobility flows between the Global South and Global North?“

The post UK: Visa application withdrawals surpass refusals in Q1 2026 appeared first on ºÚÁϹÙÍø Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

• Affordability
• Value for money
• Quality
• Scholarships
• Degree recognition across Europe
• English-taught programmes (15,000+ delivered wholly or partially in English)



The country has become especially popular in the past couple of years as thousands of international students find themselves priced out of programmes in the Big Four anglophone destinations (Australia, Canada, the UK, US) or rejected for a study visa.
 
A new whitepaper from student recruitment platform delves into the reasons for Türkiye’s ascent, while also outlining challenges the country faces in retaining foreign graduates. In this article, we will reference the report as well as other sources to provide an understanding of Türkiye’s new status among major study abroad destinations.

Burgeoning international student numbers

International education is a priority export sector for the Turkish government. Alongside tourism, the sector’s contribution to GDP has greatly accelerated in the past five years as the number of foreign students in Türkiye has increased.

The goal is to welcome 500,000 students by 2028, a target that looks likely to be met given the pace of growth in recent years. Turkish universities – of which there are over 200 – now host twice as many foreign students as they did five years ago (about 350,000 in 2026).

The new competitive advantage: predictability

It wasn’t that long ago that international students travelled (1) mostly to North America and a handful of European destinations and (2) prioritised rankings/reputation when selecting an institution. But especially over the past couple of years, this has changed. The MSM Unify report makes a great observation:

“Students are reassessing destination value propositions, placing greater emphasis on cost predictability, degree recognition, and access certainty over brand prestige alone.�

It isn’t just that the leading anglophone destinations are becoming more expensive. It is that they also are becoming more unpredictable in terms of post-study work rights, visa rejection rates, visa processing times, and costs of living.

By contrast, when international students choose Türkiye, they can expect stable, and much more affordable, tuition fees and living costs. The MSM Unify report compares the “total cost of attendance� (tuition plus living costs) across the US, UK, major European destinations, and Türkiye, as shown in the following chart.

The report notes:

“Undergraduate tuition fees in Türkiye typically range between USD$3,000 and USD$30,000 per year, depending on institution type and discipline. Professional and regulated programs, most notably medicine, generally fall within the USD$18,000 to USD$50,000 annual range, significantly below comparable programs in Europe, North America, or Australia. Public universities and selected foundation institutions offer even lower tuition for non-professional programmes.�

“Cost-efficient� rather than “low cost� higher education

Türkiye wants to position itself as “cost-efficient� rather than simply cheaper than Big Four alternatives. The report explains:

“Türkiye offers affordability without structural dilution of degree value. Its cost-value equation lowers financial risk while preserving international recognition, making it one of the most economically rational choices in today’s increasingly price-sensitive global higher education market.�

As long as students choose a well-respected Turkish institution (most of these are in Istanbul or Ankara), they can expect a high quality of education at a lower price than in most other major destinations. Six Turkish universities are in QS’s 2026 top 500, and 11 in total are in the top 1,000.

provides interesting comparisons between value-for-money at Turkish universities and at those in the Big Four, looking at features such as tuition costs, graduate employability rates, and the length of time it takes students to “earn back� their tuition fees. For a variety of reasons, it argues that:

“Students [from emerging markets] with genuine elite potential targeting Harvard, Oxford, or Imperial can justify premium pricing. Students aiming for solid professional careers increasingly can’t justify the premium Western universities charge over Turkish alternatives.�

Geographic positioning

The time and cost required for students from emerging markets to get to a study destination is perhaps not recognised enough as a factor in international student mobility flows – especially in a context where:

• Affordability is the top consideration for many families;
• Geopolitical tensions and anti-immigrant sentiment in some countries have moved safety up on the list of concerns.

In this context, the fact that Türkiye is located at the intersection of Europe, Africa, and Asia is a major competitive advantage in emerging markets.

Türkiye’s top 10 sending markets are Syria, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Iran, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Egypt, Afghanistan, Somalia, and Pakistan. Of these, only three (Somalia, Pakistan, and Kazakhstan) require students to take direct flights of more than five hours. Even then, the travel time is less than seven hours. Students from all top 10 markets would spend at least 12 hours getting to Canada, the US, or Australia – at about double the flight cost.

Lower travel costs and proximity can be added to the list of Türkiye’s relative advantages, including affordable visa application fees, tuition fees, and costs of living. Collectively, this is a very attractive list for a large segment of prospective students in emerging markets.

Public versus private

When deciding whether to apply to one of Türkiye’s or to a public, state-funded institution, international students consider the following general strengths and weaknesses:

• Private universities often charge more in tuition fees compared to public institutions; are less likely to place in major world university rankings (with some exceptions); and offer more English-taught programmes (ETPs), especially . They also often offer generous scholarships.

• Public universities outperform private institutions in global rankings and are much more competitive to get into. They offer much lower tuition (annual fees can be as low as US$200 to US$1,000 depending on the programme and university), and about 5,000 international students receive substantial funding through the programme every year. However, Turkish is the main language of instruction in public universities, which can be difficult for foreign students.

Challenges

Türkiye is clearly able to attract a diverse range of students from multiple emerging markets (many of them Muslim-majority). However, it struggles in its ability to add top foreign talent to the labour force. A major barrier is that:

“Turkish language competence remains a decisive factor in accessing the domestic labor market. While English-medium instruction facilitates academic access, functional Turkish proficiency substantially improves employability, particularly in client-facing, regulated, and public-sector-adjacent roles.�

In addition, Türkiye’s own students are having serious issues finding good jobs. data shows that Türkiye ranks last of 33 European countries in employing recent university graduates (i.e., those who graduated within the past three years), with less than two-thirds (63.5%) of recent Turkish graduates employed in 2024. The European Union average was 85%, pulled up at the extreme end by Bulgaria, Estonia, and the Netherlands (over 92% employed).

Türkiye’s labour market is simply not performing well when it comes to absorbing university graduates, and many international job candidates have the added hurdle of language barriers. These obstacles are significant.

Work opportunities

While studying, international students can obtain a permit to work for up to 24 hours per week, but undergraduate students need to wait until their second year to work. Graduate students can work as soon as they begin their programmes.

International graduates can obtain a short-term residence permit allowing them to look for work for a year. To receive a work permit, they must secure employment within that first year. Their employer must prove that the international graduate has skills that a Turkish national does not for the position when applying for the permit. notes that “to obtain a work visa can take months.�

All work (in-study and post-study) contributes to the points required for eligibility for the Turquoise Card (Turkuaz Kart), which is designed to attract highly qualified foreign professionals, and which says “functions like a permanent residence and work permit combined.� The website outlines the criteria upon which Turquoise Card applicants are judged:

• “Education: Master’s or PhD from a Turkish or internationally recognised university
• Work experience: 3+ years in a relevant field (Turkish experience preferred)
• Salary level: Above a threshold set by the Ministry
• Strategic field: STEM, healthcare, energy, or other priority sectors
• Turkish language skills: Bonus points for B2+ Turkish proficiencyâ€�

The road ahead

The past few years have proven that Türkiye’s offer to international students is strong. But the MSM Unify report notes that to keep the momentum – and to transition from enrolment volumes to more targeted goals such as retention – reforms are needed to close the education-employment gap:

“Türkiye’s international education credibility will ultimately be judged not by enrollment volume, but by measurable graduate outcomes, including skill relevance, employability transparency, and the ability of institutions to translate academic access into sustained career value for international graduates.�

For additional background, please see:

• “Türkiye: After a decade of dramatic growth, a goal to host 500,000 international students by 2028â€�
• “ºÚÁϹÙÍø Podcast: Redrawing the map of global student flows from the ‘Big Four’ to the ‘Big Fourteen’â€�
• “Beyond the Big Four: How demand for study abroad is shifting to destinations in Asia and Europeâ€�

The post Why are so many international students choosing to study in Türkiye? appeared first on ºÚÁϹÙÍø Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

Little by little, the wall gets higher

The movement to restrict African nationals from coming to the US began in the summer of 2025, when the administration stopped processing the visas of students (and other nationals) from several countries including Chad, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Libya, Somalia, and Sudan. This list was quickly expanded to include Angola, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Djibouti, Egypt, Ethiopia, Gabon, the Gambia, Liberia, Malawi, Nigeria, Niger, Senegal, South Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zimbabwe.

In bluntest terms: Of the 54 countries in Africa, almost half made the travel ban list in the summer of 2025. Currently, African countries account for the lion’s share of all 39 countries on that list.

In January 2026, the government began targeting African students already in the US. Immigration officers were directed to pause visa processing for students from travel-ban countries applying for Optional Practical Training (OPT) and extensions, the H-1B programme, or the work component attached to J-1 visas. That same month, the pause applied to Green Card applicants from 23 African countries, many of which were on the travel ban list.

Now, in June 2026, the US State Department is from 50 consular posts to 20 designated regional hubs. This means all African students will have to travel to one of those 20 hubs to apply for a US study visa and sit for an interview. Some prospective applicants live hundreds of kilometres away from a hub. Reaching a hub may now necessitate flights and staying over in more than one city.

The impact

Policy after policy is now making it nearly impossible for many African students to study in the US. Through visa bans and high rejection rates; immigration restrictions; and now the reduction of visa processing offices, the barriers are mounting for African students hoping to study in the United States.

African markets have been the fastest growing sources of students for US universities in recent years. For example, between 2023/24 and 2024/25, according to , these were the biggest growth stories, including top 20 markets of Nigeria (#8) and Ghana (#14):

• Cameroon: +20.5% to 1,180
• Ethiopia: +10.5 to 3,400
• Tanzania: +11% to 1,140
• Uganda: +15% to 1,500
• Zimbabwe: +42% to 2,700
• Ghana: +36.5% to 12,830
• Nigeria: +9% to 21,850

Overall, African enrolments in US higher education institutions grew by +15% in 2024/25 compared with +5% for Asia, +3% for Europe, and +2.5% for Latin America and the Caribbean.

For additional background, please see:

• “US extends travel ban, Nigeria now included on restricted list“
• “US: Student visa issuances fell by -36% in summer 2025; OPT uncertainty among factors affecting international student demandâ€�

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The report is based on survey findings from just over 67,000 prospective international students from 150 countries. The survey data was collected between October 2025 and April 2026, and Keystone has combined it, where appropriate, with actual search data from its student-facing course search websites.

The first thing that jumps out from the data is the difference between student interest (the destinations students are most interested in) and student intent (the destination where they actually go on to enrol).

For example, Keystone explains, “While the USA was our most-searched destination (19%), fewer students in our survey are selecting it as their intended study destination, a trend that has persisted for the second year running.”

In other words, there is currently a significant gap between students’ initial interest in the Big Four study destinations and their actual enrolment. While students may want to enrol in a preferred destination, they then weigh practical considerations such as their chance of obtaining a study visa and also compare the relative safety and affordability of various options.

“Basically, the Big Four has a huge amount of interest and high appeal,” adds Dr Bennett. “But when we move on to actual intent, we move on to practical factors. That’s where the gap is.”

The Keystone data shows that student interest continues to fragment across a wider field of study destinations, especially those in Europe and Asia. What’s more, more students are now wanting to choose a destination before progressing to considering programmes or institutions.

Intended programme of study remains the most important factor (40%) for students making decisions about study abroad, but it has lost some ground since 2025. By contrast, country choice has risen from a sample-wide average of 20% in 2025 to 28% in 2026 – an average pulled up by certain regional trends. Keystone explains, “For South Asian respondents specifically, country (35%) now outranks programme (31%). This is the only regional audience where we see this happen, and the one most exposed to recent visa and policy changes. This suggests that students are ensuring their chosen destinations are accessible to them before they can consider institutions or courses.”

As for their biggest concerns, cost and eligibility were the top worries for students in this year’s survey, echoing responses from last year. But “political uncertainty” is the fastest-rising concern in 2026 (rated third by students after only cost and eligibility), which points to a significant level of anxiety attached to study abroad decision-making. Students are well-aware of visa barriers and rejection rates, and they are naturally worried that government policies affecting their study/work plans could change before or during their programme.

“Confidence is declining,” says Keystone. “Students worry less about their ability to succeed than their opportunity to do so.”

How do students rate destinations in that larger set?

“The Big 4 still compete on appeal, especially when considering academic reputation and subject offering,” says Keystone. “But they don’t have a commanding lead. And they’re falling behind on the practical considerations that make studying abroad possible for many.”

The chart below shows relative ratings given by students, for various decision factors, across the Big Four, selected destinations in Europe (Germany, Ireland, Netherlands, France), and a sample of Asian destinations (Japan, China, South Korea).

Dr Bennett points out that what this data is telling us is that “Prospective students don’t think the gap between destinations is as big as we perhaps do.”

Use versus trust

The survey findings also paint an interesting picture of the sources and channels that students use in their search for information about study abroad. As we see in the chart below, AI use, for example, is comparable to the percentage that say they look for information on university websites. But the trust students extend to those institutional websites considerably outstrips their confidence in the information they get via AIs.

Keystone offers this summary of the findings in this area: “The takeaway here is reassuring for institutions: even as AI and social media reshape how students search, they haven’t reshaped who students believe. University websites remain the anchor of credibility, the one channel audiences approach with conviction rather than uncertainty.”

“Generative and broad-search tools may dominate the discovery phase, but trust still flows to curated, human-crafted sources. The implication is clear: investing in owned channels and curated partnerships isn’t just defensible, it’s where decisions actually get made.”

For additional background, please see:

• “New IDP research shows link between visa uncertainty and the perceived ROI of study abroad“
• “UNESCO confirms growing trend of intra-regional student mobility“
• “UK: Sponsored study visa issuances down, rejection rates up, and more“
• “From the Big Four to the Big Fourteen“
• “What students want: The top decision factors for study abroad“

The post Survey of 67,000 prospective students highlights gaps between interest and enrolment for study abroad appeared first on ºÚÁϹÙÍø Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

The new rule will replace the current “Duration of Status� (D/S) admissions mechanism with fixed end dates, require students and exchange visitors to file formal extension applications with US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), shorten grace periods, and prevent programme changes.

We have written extensively on the rule change and so won’t unpack it in great detail again here. Suffice to say it has the potential to be extremely disruptive for current and prospective international students in the US, and is therefore of great concern to international educators and stakeholders.

The main issues are:

• The time limits imposed by the new rule are impractical for many students. Because most students will need to extend their stay beyond the four-year limit imposed by the rule, this opens the door to processing delays and, most significantly, uncertainty in the student’s academic pathway.

• The extension decision will rest with USCIS as opposed to the student’s institution as it does under the D/S system. This exposes the student, as one conference presenter put it, to “hard vetting opportunities” that could disrupt the student’s programme or prevent them from progressing to further study or to Optional Practical Training (OPT).

Because of the rule’s significance, the response from US educators and stakeholders has been considerable. The proposed rule was published in the Federal Register on 28 August 2025 with a tight 30-day public comment period that closed on 29 September 2025. Even within that short window, the filing attracted more than 15,700 comments, the overwhelming majority of which were in opposition.

In its comment, for example, NAFSA said the proposed rule “would replace a proven, flexible policy that has served the nation, international students, and exchange visitors for decades with a policy that is duplicative, burdensome and creates uncertainty.”

The Presidents’ Alliance on Higher Education and Immigration said that it “objects to this rule in full,” asserting that, “Implementing the rule would have significantly greater economic effects than estimated by [Department of Homeland Security] on US higher education institutions, including from the loss of the international student population and economic costs to local communities.”

Even so, on 5 May 2026, the Department of Homeland Security submitted the final rule to the Office of Management and Budget for review, which is the last procedural step before the final rule will be published in the Federal Register.

The general expectation within the sector is the rule will proceed. As NAFSA explains: “We expect OMB’s review to be expeditious and for the rule to be published in the Federal Register in the not too distant future. The final rule will go into effect 60 days after publication.”

A bipartisan appeal

Against all of that administrative process and critique, a notable, late-breaking development comes in the form of , with two Republican signatories and two Democrats.

The rare bipartisan appeal expresses the group’s concern about the proposed rule, and asks the Department of Homeland Security and the Office of Management and Budget “to preserve Duration of Status and ensure efficient visa processing policies that support a stable environment for international students and scholars.”

Reflecting some of the key points from the critical commentary filed during the 30-day period in September 2025, the letter sets out that, “Replacing D/S with a capped admission period of four years would require many students to seek repeated extensions, creating unnecessary administrative burdens, processing delays, and disruptions to academic continuity. These changes would undermine America’s ability to attract and retain top global talent at a time when competitor nations continue expanding efforts to recruit international students, researchers, and high-skilled STEM workers. Recent surveys found that nearly half of international graduate students and postdoctoral researchers would not have chosen to study in the United States if it had a fixed admission period.”

The congressional representatives also describe some of the local and national impacts of falling international enrolments: “Maintaining D/S is also vital in our efforts to strengthen domestic talent pipelines and local economies. Because international students are generally ineligible for federal financial aid and often pay full tuition, they help sustain academic programs, expand institutional capacity, and support educational opportunities for American students. In fact, for every international student enrolled at a US public university, two additional American students are able to attend…If the United States experiences even a one-third decline in foreign STEM graduates, the country could lose 6 to 11 percent of its high-skilled STEM workforce. Economic research estimates that such a decline could reduce the U.S. GDP by $240 to $481 billion annually within a decade – creating fewer new businesses and jobs, reducing global competitiveness, and shrinking tax revenues that support public services and infrastructure.”

For additional background, please see:

• “US to end ‘Duration of Status’ for F, J, and I visas and limit the time international students can study in the US“
• “US immigration officials allege OPT is being widely abused and say ‘more actions are forthcoming’“

The post Bipartisan congressional group calls on US administration to preserve Duration of Status for international student visas appeared first on ºÚÁϹÙÍø Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

As of 1 June 2026, universities will be judged according to that demand:

• A sponsored study visa refusal rate of less than 5%;
• An enrolment rate of at least 95%;
• A course completion rate of at least 85% (rising to 95% in 2027).

Only if an institution is rated green will it not be sanctioned or penalised in some way by the Home Office. The red rating band allows for sanctions as severe as the revocation of a university’s license to sponsor (aka recruit) international students. Importantly, the RAG rating is not an aggregate across the three BCA metrics; rather, the university’s rating is based on its lowest score on any one of those compliance requirements.

The introduction of this strict compliance regime underscores the importance of a new British Council report, “.� The report says it is urgent for UK universities to consider expanding recruitment beyond the predominant form of attracting students from source countries. An underused enrolment pipeline, says the report, is international students who are already enrolled in some kind of UK education, whether onshore (e.g., in a bachelor’s programme) or offshore (e.g., via transnational education programming, such as a branch campus or through a foreign partnership).

The dangers of overreliance on direct overseas recruitment

About three-quarters (72%) of current foreign students in UK universities were recruited directly from their home countries, primarily through educational agents, student fairs, institutional outreach, and digital channels. Direct overseas recruitment is the norm – but it is also highly vulnerable to external events.

For example, foreign currency fluctuations, policy shifts, geo-political tensions, and affordability crises often dramatically affect international enrolments, and they are doing so right now. Non-EU commencements in the UK have been falling over the past couple of years, especially for postgraduate programmes, where most international students are enrolled. Immigration policies (including the dependant’s ban in 2024) sparked the trend. The updated BCA thresholds and associated Red-Amber-Green (RAG) system will ingrain it further.

The RAG effect on direct recruitment

The RAG system makes it much riskier to directly recruit students from several key non-EU markets. The study visa refusal rate threshold, in particular, is a game changer: it coincides with massive spikes in visa refusals for students from key growth markets, as shown in the chart below.

Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nigeria, and Bangladesh are important growth markets for many UK universities – but the surging rejection rates observed for each this year now increases the risk of a red RAG rating.

Among other penalties, a first red rating results in an institution having its sponsored study visa allocation (CAS) reduced by a minimum of 10% and a “final warning� that compels it to stay out of red for the next five annual BCA assessments. A subsequent red rating (after the final warning) is worse still: it constitutes a “serious breach of sponsorship duties� and allows the Home Office to remove a university’s right to sponsor international students.

Secondary routes are more resilient to external shocks

The rapid decline in the number of sponsored study visa applications and issuances over the past few months is largely due to UK universities and students from high-risk markets anticipating – and reacting to – the impact of the RAG system. Even before the new regime came into effect this week, some universities simply stopped recruiting in countries that were perceived as high risk in terms of visa refusals, and many students have withdrawn their applications to avoid any chance of having a visa refusal attached to their student profile.

Universities that can best withstand the effects of the new compliance standards are either elite institutions (less reliant on high-risk markets) or those that have contingency plans in place, such as the ability to recruit students already enrolled in these two ways:

• Offshore in transnational education (TNE);
• Onshore in K-12 schools, foundational, and degree programmes.

In both those cases, students are already invested in obtaining a UK qualification. They are already enrolled somewhere in the system – which means they don’t have to be recruited directly once more from their home countries.

As the report suggests, the opportunity here is to encourage existing onshore and offshore students to “convert� again, perhaps most crucially into a postgraduate programme. Those programmes attract 70% of onshore international students, and they are also the most affected by recent policies.

The potential of pathway recruitment

The following table shows that secondary entry routes for postgraduate studies at UK universities are growing, while direct recruitment is falling. For example, between 2022/23 and 2023/24:

• TNE (as an entry route to postgraduate studies in the UK) grew by +129%;
• Pre-sessional English (e.g., English-language courses for students to gain proficiency before entering degree programmes) was up +7.5%;
• Prior UK study (e.g., undergraduate to postgraduate or postgraduate to another advanced degree) was up +39%.

By contrast, direct recruitment was down -13.5%.

The crucial role of the undergraduate pipeline

When international bachelor’s enrolments fall, there are downstream effects. A significant number of international undergraduates progress to postgraduate studies (29,900 in 2023/24). The report notes:

“This makes UG2PG [i.e., undergraduate to postgraduate progression] a pivotal mechanism for institutional resilience: it captures the extent to which providers can convert prior UK study into master’s enrolments, rather than relying predominantly on new international recruitment at the point of entry.�

This point is especially important when looking at the markets where negative pressures on demand are the strongest. Though students from Pakistan, Bangladesh, Ghana, Sri Lanka, Nigeria, and Kenya are primarily enrolled in postgraduate programmes, anywhere from 20%–40% (depending on market) are in bachelor’s programmes. Collectively, this is a lot of students who can be recruited from within the UK.

Students with prior UK study experience and a history of compliance with immigration rules generally have a stronger chance of being approved for a second sponsored study visa (e.g., for postgraduate studies) than applicants from high-risk markets. They have demonstrated that they are genuine students whose primary reason for being in the UK is to study rather than to access work or immigration routes through the back door.

In turn, secondary pathways into undergraduate programmes deserve more attention, says the report:

“Universities’ foundation and [private pathway programmes] imply a sizeable “hidden� feeder pipeline into undergraduate degrees. This matters because these entrants often represent students with a higher level of commitment to a UK degree, and they can provide a stabilising buffer when direct recruitment is disrupted.�

Recommendations

The British Council advises:

“Institutions should treat students with prior engagement with UK education … as part of their resilience strategy [and] scale outreach work with UK schools, TNE, and international partnerships routes where feasible (including progression agreements and joint delivery).�

And continues: “All institutions, including highly ranked institutions, should therefore proactively develop and formalise progression pipelines … to sustain their future onshore conversion base.�

Another important recommendation concerns data. The report proves that the sector, and government, needs to capture and track pipeline progressions for a true understanding of risk. For example, rather than simply consider Pakistan a high-risk market, looking at the entry routes and progressions of Pakistani students could show which routes are more likely to contain genuine students who will succeed in their programmes and be compliant.

The report asserts: “To move from recruitment analytics to sustainability and quality, entry routes should be linked to continuation, completion, progression and employment outcomes.�

The report is broadly relevant across destinations

The report offers food for thought for universities across the Big Four because they share a common need right now: strategies to mitigate risk in the face of tightened immigration policies and heightened regulatory requirements.

For additional background, please see:

• “Narrowing bands of compliance: How the UK’s new RAG system will impact international student recruitmentâ€�
• “UK: Sponsored study visa issuances down, rejection rates up, and moreâ€�
• “UK universities bracing for a further decline in international enrolmentsâ€�
• “UK: 7 in 10 universities report declining international postgraduate enrolments; visa rejections are part of the storyâ€�

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This has always been true to some extent, with the costs of study and living abroad a particularly frustrating barrier for many students. However, the list of barriers is growing, and visa rejections occupy an increasingly prominent position on this list – including for students applying to the UK.

The UK’s sponsored study visa approval rate used to be higher than in Australia, and much higher than in Canada and the US. But in the six months up to the end of March 2026, the refusal rate for students from many of the UK’s fastest-growing student source markets has doubled, tripled, or increased even more drastically compared with the same period in 2024/25. In the case of Pakistan, the rejection rate has increased nearly six-fold from just under 6% to 41%.

Higher visa refusal rates are conveniently dovetailing with the UK government’s overall immigration goals. The narrowing of study, work, and immigration opportunities is happening against a background of quietly coordinated and complementary visa processes and policies.

This interplay is the main story behind the Home Office issuing -32% fewer sponsored study visas to international students in Q1 2026 than in Q1 2025.

Massive rises in visa rejections for some markets

In the six-month stretch of Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, sponsored study visa refusals skyrocketed compared with the same period in 2024/25 for Pakistani (41% refusal rate), Bangladeshi (26%), Ghanaian (26%), Sri Lankan (22%), and Nigerian students (20%). The following chart, created by the Nous Group, shows the dramatic contrasts between this recent period and the same period in 2024/25.

The chart also shows that American and Chinese students, who have always benefitted from high approval rates, have become even more likely to be approved.

Why are Chinese and American students so much more likely to be approved?

More than 99% of Chinese and American sponsored study applications were approved by UK immigration officials in the year ending March 2026.

The growing discrepancy between this rate and those in emerging markets such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Nigeria, is greatly influenced by the immigration climate in the UK.

The ruling Labour government is plummeting in popularity, not least because of among a sizeable segment of voters that immigration levels are not lower.

Rachel Wolf, writing in , predicts that to attempt to remain in power, Labour will employ a range of right-aligned tactics including “[cutting] immigration and [going] after easy wins (such as international students).�

Some international students are better targets than others in this regard. Chinese and American students do not increase net migration levels because the vast majority of them leave the UK after completing their studies.

In contrast, students from countries experiencing dramatic jumps in visa rejection rates are also the most likely to want to remain in the UK to work and immigrate.

The following chart from the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford depicts striking differences in “stay rates� across four nationalities (as measured by proportions that still had a valid sponsored study visa in 2024 after first arriving in 2019).

Some institutions more affected than others

The composition of a British university’s international student body is now a major determinant of how well that university can tolerate the clampdown on student flows from some countries.

For example, Higher Education Statistics Agency () data shows that Chinese students – who have a 99% approval rate – accounted for more than 40% of all international students at elite Russell Group universities in 2024/25.

Around 105,000 Chinese students were enrolled at these institutions that academic year – which is nearly three-quarters of all Chinese students in the UK.

Heavy reliance on Chinese enrolments may be risky in the long term, but for now, it buffers elite institutions against the system-wide trend of students in high-growth emerging markets being either rejected for a visa or withdrawing their application.

The rest of the country’s universities tend to be more diversified across nationalities and rely more on enrolments from emerging markets. Ironically, though this diversification was encouraged by the UK government’s 2019 International Education Strategy (and 2021 update), it now exacerbates the many are experiencing.

Nous Group director Nicholas Dillon notes that lower-ranked universities that continue efforts to recruit in high-risk markets face escalating costs of acquisition per student (e.g., through increased documentation checks, interviewing, and other activities aimed removing visa rejection risk). As Mr Dillon says: “This matters, as margins are already tighter at many lower-ranked providers.�

The massive impact of visa rejections and delays in processing

Students in the regions most affected by visa rejection rates are also the most likely to be experiencing delays in visa processing. Wonkhe’s associate editor, Jim Dickinson, reports:

“At some providers, reports suggested up to half of a winter cohort was still awaiting a decision despite a Confirmation of Acceptance for Studies (CAS) issued before Christmas – petitions described students stuck on “SLA not met� notifications weeks after submitting biometrics. The delays were reported to fall hardest on applicants from Pakistan, South Asia, and parts of Africa.�

(Editor’s note: “SLA not met� stands for “Service Level Agreement not met� and indicates that UK Visas and Immigration (UKVI) has failed to make a decision on the file within their standard processing timeframe.)

Higher rates of visa refusals and visa processing delays are prompting two related trends:

• Students from high-risk markets are increasingly withdrawing their applications so that their student profile is not marred by evidence of a rejection.

• Many universities are scaling back – or even stopping – student recruitment in those markets to avoid being sanctioned under new, stiffer Basic Compliance Assessment (BCA) rules. Among other benchmark requirements, institutions must stay within a 5% refusal rate range or risk penalisation including, at the extreme end, the removal of their license to enrol international students.

Death by a thousand cuts?

Mr Dickinson explains that dynamics such as visa rejections and processing delays for students from some countries are reinforcing the deterrent effect of more restrictive government policies:

“The contraction [of student flows] is being administered through the plumbing of the system – a delay here, a withdrawn application there, a compliance threshold that does the deciding, a salary floor that quietly closes a route.”

“Each lever is individually deniable. The aggregate is a bust delivered by stealth, with no single author and accountability that sits nowhere.�

Students pay a steep price, says Mr Dickinson:

“There is a bleak logic to it all. A withdrawn application doesn’t count as a refusal in the compliance metrics. So in a system that punishes refusals, the withdrawal route protects the institution’s number while the student absorbs the loss – the non-refundable flights, the priority fee that was never honoured, the place that evaporated. The delay creates the pressure – the withdrawal discharges it without leaving a mark on anyone’s record.â€�

Amidst these conditions, an increasing number of students from high-risk markets are realising that the doorway to study in the UK is narrowing.

For additional background, please see:

• “UK universities bracing for a further decline in international enrolmentsâ€�
• “Universities urged to focus on factors they can control as policy settings continue to depress international student enrolments in the Big Fourâ€�

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Those policies were introduced to limit the number of new international students coming into the country after years of double-digit growth. But they overshot their target: far fewer students have come to Canada since 2024 than the government predicted. The confusing rollout of each new rule reduced international students’ confidence in the benefits of applying to Canadian institutions.

However, a significant policy reversal in November 2025 appears to have (1) sparked new interest in Canada, and (2) improved Canadian institutions’ potential to recruit international students in the current immigration context.

Dramatic increase in search interest

Keystone Education Group says that in December 2025, there was a +55% year-over-year increase in international student searches for Canada on its platform – a major change after two years of decline.

The turning point for the rebound was the government’s 6 November 2025 announcement that master’s and doctoral-level students would be removed from the 2026 cap on new international enrolments.

Incoming postgraduate students no longer need a Provincial Attestation Letter (PAL) for a study permit, and they are now permitted to bring their families with them. Canadian immigration (IRCC) processes those students and families’ applications together, eliminating any uncertainty about whether partners/dependent children will have to wait longer than students for a visa decision.

Keystone’s data also shows an uptick in master’s-level interest. In October 2025, searches for this level were down by -6% compared with October 2024. Then in November, they grew by +28%. Following that, there were sustained, monthly increases:

• +55% in December 2025
• +50% in January 2026
• +21% in February 2026
• +45% in March 2026

Keystone says this pattern suggests “a structural shift in student interest, not a momentary spike.�
Mark Bennett, VP of Research and Insight at Keystone, says:

“Prospective students react clearly and often very consistently to policy changes, and our search data is a great way of tracking that. What’s important here is that it’s the relative calm and clarity that seems to be having a positive effect on Canadian interest. Audiences who may have been struggling to understand Canada’s position on international education are responding to a clearer signal here.�

More evidence of an upturn

Findings from IDP’s most recent Emerging Futures survey, EF9, also show that Canada is regaining popularity. As the following chart illustrates, Australia (+10%), Canada (+7%), and “other� destinations (+9%) gained significant traction this year as destinations students are considering. This is in contrast to lower interest for the UK (-3%) and especially the US (-9%). The comparison is the data from EF9 (conducted in March and April 2026) versus data from EF7 (February 2025).

Will Canada’s momentum continue?

International students’ growing interest in Canada this year comes amidst a more beneficial external and internal environment than in 2024 and 2025.

External factors include:

• Significantly lower interest in the US given the second Trump administration’s immigration policy direction;
  
• More cautious recruitment on the part of UK universities given strict new compliance thresholds (including a requirement that institutions maintain a visa refusal rate of less than 5% to avoid sanctions).

Internal factors include:

• The postgraduate exemption from the cap;
  
• The ability of postgraduates to bring their families;
  
• Greater policy stability, which leads to (1) more confidence among international prospects, and (2) improved ability of institutions and agents to advise students given less confusion and volatility;
  
• More clarity on which programmes are eligible for the Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP);
  
• Higher visa approval rates for university programmes: according to IRCC data, undergraduate approvals rose from a 22% share of all approvals in 2024 to 35% in 2025, and at the postgraduate level, the jump was from 18.5% in 2024 to 30% in 2025;
  
• Last but not least – more targeted recruitment strategies by Canadian institutions.

The question of whether or not Canada can regain its footing as a preferred leading destination depends especially on the internal factors above – including policy stability.

For additional background, please see:

• “New international student permit approvals for Canada fell below COVID levels in 2025“
• “Canada: Government audit finds impact of international student cap far greater than expected“
• “Canada’s foreign enrolment has fallen by nearly 300,000 students over the last two years“
• “Canada announces international student cap numbers for 2026 and updated programme guidance“

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