Of its research, the British Council notes:

“The findings from multiple metrics suggest that in an increasingly unstable, multipolar world, there is a growing preference among young people for predictability, security, and capability – qualities increasingly associated with non-Western governance models – over the perceived instability, paralysis and polarisation of many Western democracies.”

Of the study destinations becoming more attractive to youth, several are authoritarian, which dovetails with another major study that found that young people are to non-democratic governance. The Big Four remain in the lead, but they are losing ground, not least because of less welcoming immigration settings than in the past – particularly for students from the Global South.

About the research

The British Council’s 2025 Global Perceptions survey sample was over 20,000 youth aged 18–34 in G20 countries excluding Russia. A key aim was determining how the UK stacks up against other countries in terms of attractiveness, trust, perceptions of the economy and government, and as a study abroad destination.

The 2025 QS Global Student Flows report drew on responses from over 70,000 students across 191 countries. Otherwise, QS says it “maps and forecasts international student mobility using an open source framework, flow mapping technology, and scenario-based forecasting.”

Leaders and climbers

The British Council survey asked respondents about the overall attractiveness of countries based on a number of metrics. Chart 1 (below) shows Japan, Italy, and the UK are in the lead, but all have lost some ground. Japan is almost stable since 2016 (down 1 percentage point), but Italy and the UK have lost -5 and -6 percentage points, respectively. The UK leads in “trust in government,” but has fallen slightly (-1) while Japan is #2 and has gained +5 percentage points.

Meanwhile, of the five “climbers” (countries that gained the most in attractiveness since 2016), four are in Asia (South Korea, TĂŒrkiye, China, and Indonesia), with Saudi Arabia rounding out the top five.

Interestingly, of the five climbers, two are non-democratic (China and Saudi Arabia), and one is increasingly authoritarian (TĂŒrkiye). All three of those countries have “strongman” leaders who have been in power for some time. China’s President Xi Jinping has held the presidency since 2013; Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman has led since 2017, following his father, Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud; and TĂŒrkiye’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has held power since 2014.

What’s more, even Russia makes the top 10 for attractiveness today (see Chart 2, below), bouncing back from its ranking of #18 when it invaded Ukraine to #10 in 2025. Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has been in place since 1999 and rules with an iron fist.

The British Council notes:

“The top ten for overall attractiveness has long been dominated by rich, liberal, democratic capitalist states. The UK, Japan, and Italy have consistently held leading positions over the past decade. But that dominance is no longer assured: Australia, Canada, and the United States have all seen their rankings decline over time, with the risk that one or more may soon fall out of the top ten.”

QS also finds a gravitation to non-Western countries

There may be a connection between these changes in attractiveness and students’ rapidly growing interest in alternative destinations. In publishing its 2025 Global Student Flows report, QS interviewed Matthew Ramsey, Director of University Affairs at the University of British Columbia, who said:

“We now live in a more uncertain global environment. This uncertainty has an impact on the younger generation, and especially those who may consider studying outside of their home country.”

The Global Student Flows report projects that by 2030, TĂŒrkiye, the United Arab Emirates, Malaysia, and Japan will gain more share of international students, while the combined market share of the Big Four is projected to drop from 40% to 35%.

High visa rejection rates will ripple outside of international education

High visa rejection rates in Australia, Canada, and the US for African and South Asian students will have a huge impact on future global student mobility – and countries’ soft power. QS interviewed Hans de Wit, a Distinguished Fellow at the Center for International Higher Education at Boston College, who said:

“We see a reduction in South-North mobility and an increase in South-South mobility 
 Africa is the new battlefield, with students moving within the region and to Asia and the Middle East.”

The losses incurred by traditional leaders in attractiveness such as Canada and the US coincide with their extremely high visa rejection rates of students from Global South countries. For example:

• In 2025, nearly two-thirds (64%) of all F-1 visa applications from African students were rejected. Many Asian students were even more likely to be refused: India: 61%; Pakistan: 71%; Bangladesh: 73%; Nepal: 81%; and Afghanistan: 81%.

• The latest African-only study permit rejection rate data published by the Canadian government in 2023 found that over 60% of African students were refused in Canada. And in 2025, the refusal rate for Indian students was 74%.

With rejection rates like these, the ability of the US and Canada to build soft power and partnerships with the Global South is greatly diminished. The introduction to the British Council’s Global Perceptions report states:

“[Youth perceptions] influence personal choices – like where to study, where to build a business, or which partnerships to pursue. But they also shape the choices of governments, businesses, and international organisations. Whether negotiating trade deals, collaborating on climate action, or sharing intelligence, trust is the foundation of international cooperation.”

The UK has also lost ground

The British Council found that of the top 5 study destinations, the UK has lost considerable ground (see Chart 3 below), and it notes that this trend has wide implications:

“The UK has long benefitted from a strong soft power position. But 
 this advantage is slipping. While the UK remains attractive and trusted, its relative standing among G20 nations is under pressure. This poses a direct challenge to its international influence, long-term security, and economic prosperity. Crucially, soft power is no longer the preserve of a few traditional powers. Emerging players are actively vying to become the next “soft power superpower.” The competition is intensifying – and the field is levelling. In this new race, complacency is costly. If the UK is to maintain its edge, it must act decisively, strategically, and with purpose.”

One finding in particular confirms the strong linkages between economic competitiveness, soft power and study abroad: youth respondents saying they studied in the UK were four times more likely to say they intend to do business or trade with the UK in the future than those who had not.

Practical rather than philosophical

For students from the Global South aiming to improve their and their families’ lives, study abroad offers the chance of earning globally recognised degrees, sending money home, and accessing often better educational systems than exist in their own countries. If they can’t get into a Big Four destination, they have increasingly attractive alternatives.

Over time, the more international students who study outside the West, the more talent, trade, and soft power will be concentrated in those regions.

For additional background, please see:

• “From the Big Four to the Big Fourteen”
• “Visa rejections climb in the US for international students from key markets including India“
• “Australia: Student visa refusal rates reach record high amid weakening demand from China“
• “Narrowing bands of compliance: How the UK’s new RAG system will impact international student recruitment“

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Enrolments were especially down of students from “high-risk” markets (i.e., markets where a high level of fraudulent applications or non-compliance with visa rules are expected). More than 8 in 10 universities reported declines from Pakistan, with an average reduction of 75%. Enrolments were also down significantly from India and Bangladesh.

What’s behind the decline?

As we are seeing across the other Big Four countries (Australia, Canada, and the US), visa rejections by the government – as well as anticipated visa rejections on the part of universities – are disproportionately affecting students from the Global South.

In June, the government will introduce a compliance regime in which universities that do not maintain a visa refusal rate of under 4% will be marked “amber” (as opposed to green) and prevented from increasing their international enrolments. This is fuelling many universities to adjust their recruiting in emerging markets. About a third said they had stopped recruiting in some markets and the same proportion said they now ask for higher deposits or conduct more rigorous financial checks.

At the same time, 6 in 10 universities reported that they experienced more visa rejections in January 2026 than in January 2025, and many were concerned about the reasons for this:

• 41% cited unexplained delays or interview scheduling problems;
• Over a third cited less convincing reasons for refusals that were inconsistent with applicant quality.

It is fair to say that genuine students in high-risk markets face discrimination based on their nationality.

It is also fair to say that universities are caught between a rock and a hard place because they are naturally interested in remaining compliant with government rules. When they see the government refusing high numbers of students from some markets, it is a signal that recruiting from those markets may tip them into the upcoming “amber” zone.

BUILA says:

“[We are] urging the Government to use ‘amber’ ratings as an internal warning measure rather than the point at which recruitment sanctions are applied. And [we are] calling for the traffic light system to better distinguish between factors within an institution’s control and those driven by external or systemic issues, such as visa processing delays.”

Chair Andrew Bird adds:

“This survey shows universities narrowing recruitment simply to manage risk, at a time when they are also facing higher refusal rates from UK Visas and Immigration, delays and inconsistent decision-making outside their control.

The UK already operates one of the toughest student visa compliance regimes in the world, and our members fully support protecting its integrity. But the Government keeps shifting the goalposts. The proposed traffic-light system is being implemented far more harshly than originally intended.

If introduced as currently proposed, the new system risks significant reputational damage to our world leading higher education sector. It could deter genuine students from applying and signal a problem to global markets where none exists, at a time when competition for international students is intensifying.”

No choice but to turn to alternative destinations

Consider these statistics about the chances of certain South Asian student being approved for a study visa in a Big Four destination (and note also that in the UK in 2025, the average visa rejection rate was only 12%).

• In 2025, Indian students faced a 61% and 74% rejection rate in and the US, respectively.
  
• Bangladeshi students encounter rejection rates of 51% in Australia so far in 2026, and almost three-quarters (73%) were refused by the US in 2025. In 2025, 36% were rejected by the (up 15 points over 2024).
  
• In February 2026, more than half (53%) of Pakistani students applying to Australia were rejected, as were 71% by the US. In 2025, more than a quarter (26%) were denied a visa by the (up 8 points).
  
• More than 8 in 10 Nepali students were refused in the US in 2025, as were 4 in 10 applying to Australia in February 2026. In 2025, 16% of applications from Nepal were refused in the compared with 2% in 2024.

As we have reported recently, these trends – as well as similar ones for African students – can only prompt a fundamental reshaping of global student mobility away from the Big Four.

For additional background, please see:

• “Narrowing bands of compliance: How the UK’s new RAG system will impact international student recruitment”
• “Visa rejections climb in the US for international students from key markets including India” 
• “Australia: Student visa refusal rates reach record high amid weakening demand from China” 

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The context here is the past three years of new policy settings and greater government intervention to manage student inflows, as well as two successive student visa application fee hikes. As of this writing, the non-refundable fee of AU$2,000 is the highest in the world. The cost of a student visa – and the very real possibility for students from many markets that their application will be refused – is dampening demand, especially for students coming for relatively shorter programmes, such as English-language courses.

Unravelling the data

Presenting the analysis to IEAA members in April 2026, English Australia CEO Ian Aird showcased the importance of clarifying the source, time frame, and implications of often misunderstood data indicators for Australia’s international education sector. For example:

• Enrolments vs. student numbers: In Australia, course enrolments tend to be the main data point presented in international education summaries and covered by media. They are sometimes confused with international student numbers – which are something quite different. Enrolments are always far higher than student numbers because international students often enrol in multiple courses in a given year (e.g., two back-to-back English-language courses of four months each would be counted as two enrolments for a single student).

• Commencements vs. NTAs: General commencement numbers comprise both students coming for the first time to study in Australia and students already in Australia who progress from a completed course to a new course. But “New-to-Australia” (NTA) commencements describe only offshore students enrolling for the first time ever in Australia.

Each of those four indicators – course enrolments, student numbers, commencements, and NTA commencements – tell very different stories. Of the four, enrolments are the least indicative of the current and future state of affairs. Mr Aird explains:

“Both enrolment and commencement figures must be recognised as ‘lag indicators’ in terms of sector health. That is, the enrolments are students who may have started their courses months and sometimes years ago. Even commencements are students who booked, paid for, and were granted visas months before they commence. If a commencement is part of a pathway, it too could have been booked years before it is indicated in the official data.

This means that the majority of 2025 enrolments and many 2025 commencements are students who were not impacted by any of the 2024 changes to the student visa system and government policy.”

Why NTAs are more predictive of future trends

New-to-Australia commencement data offers a stronger indication of international student demand under the current settings – and relatedly, factors either easing or challenging students’ ability to come to Australia. This is because NTA counts represent new students coming into Australia within the recent past (as opposed to enrolments, for example, where data could represent demand from years prior, before the new policy settings came into force). Therefore, the latest NTA data reflects students who have relatively recently:

• Wanted to apply to an institution in Australia
• Decided to pay the fee for a visa application (currently AU$2,000)
• Had their visa approved

When NTAs fall, it suggests that fewer students now consider it worthwhile to apply for a visa and/or more students who are having their visa rejected. A recent decline suggests that the trend will continue unless current circumstances change. Right now, that context is Australia’s extraordinarily expensive visa application fee and high rate of visa refusals.

Recent increases or decreases in the volume of visa applications and in the visa approval rate provide an even better sense of the future trendline for the sector. These can also be divided into applications made in Australia (hence, re-enrolling students) and applications made outside Australia (generally, New-to-Australia students).

Have NTAs fallen?

New-to-Australia commencements have indeed fallen (see Chart 1 below), and this decline coincides with both a lower application volume (Chart 2) and a higher visa refusal rate for students from key markets.

Below, Chart 1 shows that whole-sector NTAs have dropped significantly over the past two years and are significantly lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic. Chart 2 reveals that the number of students submitting visa applications fell by 32% from the post-COVID rebound peak in 2023 to 2025.

The damage to ELICOS and VET providers is the most severe

The picture for the ELICOS and VET sectors is considerably bleaker than the all-sector aggregate: a -40% y-o-y New-to-Australia commencement decline in 2025 for ELICOS and a -49% fall for VET. Chart 3 (below) shows the pattern for ELICOS.

As English Australia notes, there is a clear connection between the timing of visa application fee hikes and plummeting applications (and NTAs) for ELICOS:

“The student visa application charge went from AU$710 to AU$1,600 from 1 July 2024. This saw the monthly average student visa applications for ELICOS study fall by 34% versus pre-COVID (2018–2019) application levels or 46% versus post-COVID (2023) application levels. The increase of the student visa application charge to AU$2,000 from 1 July 2025 saw applications for ELICOS fall a further 27%.”

What about higher education?

The higher education sector has so far fared better than other kinds of providers because (1) many of the universities have the advantage of streamlined visa processing, which means their applicants aren’t scrutinised to nearly the extent as for other sectors, and (2) students are more willing to pay the visa application fee because it is a smaller proportion of the cost of a degree. For example, from 2024 to 2025:

• Higher education course enrolments rose by +9.7%;
• Commencements also increased slightly (+0.7%);
• New-to-Australia commencements were down by only -0.5%.

However, the sector’s resilience is now being tested in multiple ways. Major challenges include a decline in demand from China and high visa refusal rates for other key markets.

Chart 4 shows the proportion of applications from the top 10 source countries for higher education. The top 10 countries are traditionally responsible for 85% of all HE applications from offshore (that is, new students in the system). In Q4 2025, Chinese applications accounted for over 4 in 10 (43%) of these offshore applications. This fell to a third (34%) in January 2026 and to less than a quarter (23%) in February 2026.

By contrast, demand from India, Nepal, and Bangladesh has risen to the point where 65% of offshore applications from the top 10 are from these three countries. But much of this demand is being stopped at the border. In February 2026, 40% of Indians applying for a visa for study at an Australian university were rejected, as were 51% of Bangladeshis and 65% of Nepalis.

Lower interest from China – coupled with high visa rejection rates for students from other top markets –will almost certainly lead to a decline in Australian university commencements and enrolments in the coming intakes.

Are Australian government policies working?

To manage immigration, the Australian government is working to better link migrant profiles to labour force skills gaps. It wants to reduce net migration to pre-pandemic levels though policies aimed at increasing barriers for low-skilled temporary visa holders to work and immigrate.

Mr Aird presented a slide (shown below) showing that of eight temporary visa categories, only one is being affected by this mission: international students. He commented:

“Where government is talking about the number of temporary visa holders, and they’re taking all sorts of actions to control and manage that, they’re actually managing only one group – student visa holders. The other groups are all increasing significantly.”

The English Australia report reminds readers: “It’s vital to remember these numbers relate to real people. Falling student numbers means lost jobs in Australia, lost livelihoods.”

For additional background, please see:

• “Australia: Student visa refusal rates reach record high amid weakening demand from China”
• “Australia: Latest enrolment data challenges the government’s assertion of stability for international education this year“
• “Australia: Full-year data for 2025 reveals impact of AUD$2,000 study visa application fee on ELICOS sector“
• “Australia passes integrity legislation; sharpens definition of agents and agent commissions“

The post Australia: Multiple data indicators signal further declines ahead for international student numbers appeared first on șÚÁÏčÙÍű Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

Prospective students are considering the high cost of studying and living abroad in those leading destinations and then they are:

• Looking at rules restricting foreign students’ entry, work rights, and ability to bring their families;
• Comparing what institutions promise about employment outcomes to what current students and alumni say about what is actually happening for them.

When considering each destination individually, they notice that:

• The non-refundable fee for a student visa in Australia keeps ramping up (it is currently AU$2,000), alongside historically high visa rejection rates.
• The UK’s Graduate Route post-study work term is being cut from 24 months to 18 months in 2027.
• Post-study work streams in the US are under review by policy makers.
• Canada’s international student cap remains in place, alongside more restrictive policies for post-graduation work eligibility, and declining visa approval rates.

At the same time, labour markets in the Big Four are being disrupted by geo-political factors and the impact of new technologies. The youth unemployment rate is currently higher in Canada than it was just after the pandemic, and it is the highest it has been in a decade in the UK – trends that contribute to a more uncertain employment outlook for domestic and foreign graduates alike.

“Post-study work is obviously a key driver for a significant part of the prospective student audience,” says Dr Mark Bennett, Vice President of Research and Insight at Keystone Education Group. “But that doesn’t mean it’s their ‘default’ option post-graduation. Rather, it’s one of many opportunities that enhances the value and attractiveness of an international degree. Trusting that the door is there in advance matters whether or not someone chooses to walk through it later.”

Measuring student sentiment

Recent survey research and social media listening studies confirm that international prospects are more skeptical about the ROI of study abroad in a Big Four destination.

Looking just at the UK, for example:

• New research found that 34% of international students are less interested in UK study as a result of the imminent shortening of the Graduate Route (and half of the sample didn’t know about the policy change, indicating that demand might fall still further).

• Student visa applications to the UK in the first three months of 2026 were down -31% compared with the same period in 2025.

• A newly released study by , an AI-powered social media listening platform purpose-built for international education, found that across various social channels there is vigorous conversation about the pros and cons of studying in the UK among current and prospective international students. Anxiety and disappointment are common themes in those online conversations across tens of thousands of student comments throughout 2025. So too is a sense of being valued primarily for paying higher tuition fees than domestic students.

Here are just a couple of quotes featured in the Voyage study:

“The government introduces policies every year, which further deters international students, such as the graduate visa restrictions, not allowing dependents, etc. The new visa restrictions pretty much killed any chance of working in the UK. If you’re looking for a degree from well-regarded institutions, that’s great. If you’re looking to get a job afterwards, just know that your options are extremely, extremely limited and recent law changes have pretty much made it impossible.”

“The immigration policies are made to be as prohibitive as possible. After milking you with insane tuition fees and living expenses while providing you with no jobs, the UK wants you to spend around 3,000 pounds on a graduate visa. This will allow you to stay for 2 years. Will you find jobs on a graduate visa? You have a better chance than the impossible student visa, but it is still hard.”

Overall, the conversations picked up by Voyage include a notable level of concern about UK government policies that limit work rights while tuition fees remain much higher for international students.

A new urgency around career services

In the face of restrictive government policies, it is crucial for institutions to demonstrate their continued value to international students.

This means proving – not just promising – that they are committed to international students’ post-study success. An excellent way of achieving this is (1) customising career services for the unique needs of international students and (2) effectively communicating the value of this function to them.

Recent research shows that this isn’t happening enough as yet. A 2024 QS and Universities UK International study, which surveyed 10,000 international graduates from nearly 40 universities, found that only 3% of employed graduates had found their job with the help of career services. About a fifth had used career services for other reasons, but not for job-finding.

The research highlights a gap between the availability of career services and the relevance of this function in the eyes of international students.

Recognising that international students have more barriers to securing a job than domestic students do can help to close this gap. For those students, career services must go beyond resume coaching, interview prep, etc. They need to cover other critical areas, including:

• Working through complicated visa and immigration processes.
• Being aware of programmes linked to skills gaps (that are thus prioritised by governments and employers).
• Knowing which programmes are eligible for post-study work streams.
• Avoiding being penalised simply because of not being aware of a deadline or requirement.
• Building professional networks both in their host destination and elsewhere, because:
  • There is not a guarantee they will be able to work in the host country after studies due to policies or other factors.
  • They may not want to stay in the host country and be perfectly content to find a good job at home or in another country.
• Identifying employers who are open to hiring/sponsoring international students.

Embedding career and immigration supports

Sanam Arora is the chair of the National Indian Students and Alumni Union (NISAU) in the UK. At the 2025 șÚÁÏčÙÍű Monitor Global Summit in London, she explained:

“Seventy percent of Indians choose a destination of study on the basis of overall employability, and they have historically seen the UK or US in particular as a launchpad for global careers. In that sense, the definition of what it means to be educated has fundamentally changed. Universities that realise they’re not just here to educate, they’re here to be that global talent launchpad, will really ace this going forward.”

Ms Arora shared her own perspective on what she would find helpful:

“Before I graduate, I want the university to help me prepare for a successful life. That is what I think of when I think of career services, because success in a career is not that different than success in life. Sometimes career services is seen as something that is off to the side or in a corner, but really it needs to be embedded end-to-end throughout the entire student life cycle.”

Embedding career services means considering the whole student journey – from pre-admission to post-graduation. It means offering help to students not only in choosing the right programme, but also in understanding immigration rules and post-study pathways. Supporting students through those immigration processes is in fact an integral part of career services today, especially in the wake of heightened government oversight and compliance requirements.

Carleton University in Ottawa, Canada, has department whose name fits the bill for what is needed in our current context: the . That office combines employment research with immigration guidance, and it is open to all international students.

A wider lens for networking

Another important angle today is to recognise that fewer international students will be able to stay on to work because of new immigration policies – and some will naturally prefer to pursue careers in their home country or in a third country in any case. This puts the onus on institutions to connect students to global networking platforms and to career fairs with international employers.

Collecting data on students from the very beginning of their enrolment about their post-study plans enables the customisation of career services not just on the basis of international versus domestic, but also international “planning to stay” and international “planning to return home or work elsewhere.”

Integral to brand reputation

There is a growing urgency to backing up the promise of employability with real outcomes for students. Helping international students to achieve the ROI they expect is ever-more integral to brand integrity and equity, to student satisfaction, and to the ability to recruit successfully in overseas markets.

For additional background, please see:

• “Survey highlights a growing ‘engagement gap’ between international student expectations and institutional response”
• “Is a university degree still the same passport to success?”
• “What students want: The top decision factors for study abroad”

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The decline is unfolding as Canada’s new policy settings – a cap on international enrolments and other measures – continue to impact international students and the Canadian education system alike. The government’s reforms, which were intended to reduce the number of international students in Canada and improve programme integrity, have considerably overshot the mark.

A recent report from The Office of the Auditor General of Canada (OAG) found that the Canadian government significantly underestimated the effects of its enrolment cap and did too little to improve the integrity of the system. The Auditor General also observed: “The department did not know why [study permit] approval rates were lower than projected.”

The full-year data for 2025 from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) provides the answer: lower-than-expected permit grants were due to (1) the erosion of international student demand and (2) historically low approval rates for new study permit applications.

“Last year, IRCC processed 211,000 new post-secondary applications from prospective international students,” says a new analysis from . “Compared to 2024, demand was -55% lower year-over-year.” In other words, much fewer international students applied for a study permit last year than was the case in 2024, and this was on the heels of another substantial applications drop in 2023.

At the same time, approval rates have fallen sharply over the last five years. In 2021, 57.9% of new study permit applications were approved. That approval rate fell to 44.9% in 2024 and then took another significant step down to 35.7% – in 2025.

These two declining trends are closely linked. Simply put, students do not need to wait for official statistics to understand that many of their peers are having their applications rejected and that they should perhaps consider other options.

Can we talk about the overcorrection?

Another newly released study, this time from the , reinforces the point: “The [enrolment] cap and related reforms are reducing [international student enrolment] in excess of the provincial and territorial allocation targets, because they damage the brand and reputation of Canada’s International Student Program
After two years of caps, the 2024 policy changes seem to have reduced new study permit applications and enrolments much more than IRCC planned – and much more than provinces, territories and DLIs expected.”

The Committee’s study of the International Student Program was carried out from September to November 2025 and included testimony and written briefs from dozens of expert witnesses and organisations.

The Standing Committee finds that, “Although education and the regulation of learning institutions fall under provincial and territorial jurisdiction, the federal government was responsible for issuing an unsustainable number of study permits and allowing the system to be abused.” However, “While IRCC is attempting to reduce the number of international students in some provinces and territories, and to address overreliance on international students by colleges, its policies are impacting enrolment in regions and institutions across the country and in higher numbers than anticipated. Despite the government’s complex allocation formula, the policy is too broad and ignores regional institutional realities
While universities in some regions, such as Quebec, have not generally had problems with growing international student populations too quickly, nor with housing these students, the cap has decimated enrolment from coast to coast to coast.”

In his testimony during the Committee hearings in September 2025, Alex Usher, President of Higher Education Strategy Associates, said:

“What we ended up with was a federal government that barely understood what was going on, lashing out, acting alone, doing anything it could to bring the numbers down with only the barest understanding of the system it was regulating
We have almost no instinct anymore for co-operative federalism. This was a clear case where governments should have been talking to one another, and they weren’t. They should have been including institutions, as well. We have brutally siloed decision-making.”

Among the 10 recommendations put forward to the Government of Canada by the Standing Committee, perhaps the most compelling one is the related point that: “To give time for all actors in the international student system to adapt, and to give more certainty to current and prospective international students, the [committee recommends] that Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada consult more extensively with the provinces and territories about long-term plans for the International Student Program.”

Needless to say, the stakes are high – both for the country and for prospective students seeking access to education – and there is an urgent need for more thoughtful and effective policy making. The issues at hand transcend international student statistics and extend to the larger questions of Canada’s long-term social and economic development, in particular its ability to attract talented students, scholars, and researchers and what that means to larger national goals of innovation and productivity.

As Larissa Bezo, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Canadian Bureau for International Education, said in her Committee testimony:

“We need to be clear that this isn’t solely an immigration issue. Talent development and attraction cuts across departments and needs whole-of-government coordination.”

For additional background, please see:

• “Canada: Government audit finds impact of international student cap far greater than expected“
• “Canada’s foreign enrolment has fallen by nearly 300,000 students over the last two years“
• “Canada: Study permit numbers are in steep decline in 2025“

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The existing structure for student visas in the UK provides an important backdrop for these changes. In brief, to sponsor a student visa, a UK university or school must be a registered student sponsor. This entitles the institution to issue a Confirmation of Acceptance for Studies (CAS) which is in turn required for the student’s visa application.

The updated published on 7 April 2026 (“Document 2: Sponsorship Duties”) includes a new section that outlines the responsibilities of sponsor-institutions pertaining to education agents.

The updated rules carry two main implications for sponsor-institutions in their work with agents.

First, agency details must now be included on the Confirmation of Acceptance for Studies (CAS): “Sponsors must record agent details on the CAS where the sponsor has used an agent in the recruitment of the sponsored student.”

Second, sponsors must not only commit to the Agent Quality Framework (AQF), but be able to demonstrate that compliance: “All student sponsors using recruitment agents must retain evidence of how they are managing agents in line with the AQF and The National Code of Ethical Practice for UK Education Agents, as applicable to the school, further education, pathway and higher education sectors.”

Agency details on the CAS

Related guidance from outlines the agency details that must now be included in the CAS.

This amounts to:

• Agent company name (the formal legal name as used in the agency contract)
• Agent contact name (indicating the primary agent contract contact)
• Agent address (which refers to the specific office or branch from which the student was recruited)

The Home Office indicates otherwise that this provision applies to all cases in which the sponsoring institution was engaged with an agent on the student file, “even if this is a one-off recruitment and/or the recruitment was done without a formal ongoing contract with the agent or third party.”

In the event that a sub agent was involved with the file, the CAS must provide details of the primary agent (as opposed to the sub agent).

If an agent or advisor was engaged directly by the student for application support or other advisory, and where “that third party was not used by the sponsor as part of the recruitment process,” the agency details need not be included in the CAS.

Moving beyond voluntary compliance

The 7 April guidance effectively enshrines the Agent Quality Framework (AQF) for sponsor-institutions in the UK, a distinct progression from what has essentially been a voluntary compliance regime to this point.

The Home Office sets out that, “All student sponsors using recruitment agents must have committed to adhering to the key principles of the (AQF).”

Further, sponsors are now required to document how they are managing agents in line with the provisions of the AQF and .

What this will mean in practice is not yet clear, but it does set up a requirement for more structured and systemic reporting as to how a sponsor is in compliance with the AQF and The National Code. In broad terms, the provisions of The National Code extend additional reporting and documentation requirements to agents, along with specific training requirements, including completion of the .

Commenting on the updated guidance on , Avinav Sharma, Executive Director, Global Partnerships at MSM Unify, said:

“For agents and counsellors, the message is equally direct. If you have not completed your UK knowledge training and signed the national code of ethical practice, you are operating without the credentials this framework now demands. Your digital badge and certificate are no longer nice-to-haves. They are proof points that your sponsor partners will need to show UKVI
This is the UK government signalling that the recruitment channel will be held to the same compliance standard as the institutions themselves
Is your agency ready for this level of scrutiny?”

For additional background, please see:

• “Narrowing bands of compliance: How the UK’s new RAG system will impact international student recruitment“
• “UK’s stiffening compliance regime already having an impact on international student recruitment“
• “How the UK’s Agent Quality Framework will shape the future of agent training“
• “Who decides about quality? Education agents and the question of increased regulation“

The post UK Home Office publishes updated visa sponsor guidance for “agents and third parties” appeared first on șÚÁÏčÙÍű Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

The report continues Shorelight’s commitment, which began in 2023 in partnership with the Presidents’ Alliance on Higher Education and Immigration, to acquiring and analysing F-1 visa denial data. It is based on annual data obtained via a public information request to the US Department of State.

Refusals higher than in the pandemic

More than a third of all F-1 visas (35%) were refused in 2025, up from 31% in 2024 and 23% in 2015

The extremes on either point of this average are sharp. For Europe, the refusal rate is 9%. For Africa and Asia, it is 64% and 41%, respectively. The chart below shows the persistently low rate of rejection over 10 years for European students compared with students from elsewhere in the world.

Surging rejection rates for African students

In 2015, more than half of African applicants had their F-1 visa application approved. In 2025, nearly two-thirds were rejected. Over 10 years, refusals for African applicants have risen by 33%.

Students from some African countries are especially likely to be denied, with at least 80% of applicants from Sierra Leone, Somalia, Benin, and Burkina Faso turned away last year.

A record-high refusal rate also applied to applications from Ghana: 81% in 2025 versus 72% in 2024. Ghana – one of the safest and most stable countries in West Africa – has been a very important emerging market for US institutions in recent years. In 2024/25, according to the IIE’s Open Doors data, there were 12,825 Ghanaian students in the US, a +36.5% rise over the previous year. This was an even higher rate of growth than that from Nigeria (+9.1%), which has been the top African sender of students to the US for several years.

In 2024/25, there were 21,850 Nigerian students in US higher education, but next year will tell a different story: Nigeria is on the Trump administration’s travel ban list. This means that Nigerian students currently cannot even apply to the US, let alone have a shot of being approved for a visa. In addition, Nigerian students in the US hoping to switch to Optional Practical Training (OPT) aren’t currently able to, as the immigration department has placed an indefinite hold on their applications. This means they cannot work after finishing their studies.

Keystone Education Group reports that “Nigerian student search interest in the USA has dropped more than -50% since the visa processing freeze announcement on 17 December 2025.” Keystone found that Nigerian interest is shifting mainly to France (+40%), Italy (+33%), Australia (+21), and China (+17%).

Refusals now common for South Asian students

Like African students, South Asian students are increasingly aware that simply being from their country means they are less likely to receive an F-1 visa than students from other regions. Indian students – who compose the largest segment of the international student body in the US – are no exception. The rejection rate for Indian students rose from 53% in 2024 to 61% in 2025.

As a source market, India has been growing over time – up +10% in 2024/25 after an expansion of +23% in 2023/24, but this trend is now reversing.

Similarly, visa denials for Nepali students rose from 59% in 2024 to 81% in 2025. Last year, Nepal was the sixth largest origin market for US institutions, growing by +48% in 2024/25 over 2023/24 – the most significant jump of any top 20 market for the US.

Students from Bangladesh and Pakistan are also much more likely to be refused than approved for an F-1 visa (73% and 71% rejection rate, respectively), and this trend has intensified over the past year.

European students fare much better

Over 9 in 10 European students were approved for an F-1 visa in 2025.

The problem is that European countries contain a relatively small recruitment pool. For example, though six European countries – the UK, TĂŒrkiye, Spain, Germany, France, and Italy – are top-20 source countries for US colleges, they collectively compose less than 6% of international enrolments. In addition, they are not high-growth markets (see chart below); they will not offset declining enrolments from Africa and Asia.

Lower Indian demand has profound implications for the US economy

Indians represent 30% of all foreign enrolments in the US, and they are mostly in graduate programmes. But last year, Indian graduate enrolments fell by -9.5% – a serious decline made even starker because it followed +18.5% growth the previous year.

If Indian demand declines further because of high visa refusal rates or restrictions on the OPT and H-1B work streams, there will be profound domino effects. Consider:

• Indian students contribute over 70% of enrolments in master’s and PhD-level STEM (science, technology, engineering, and math) programmes.
• Nearly half of STEM-OPT participants are Indian.
• Close to 75% of all H-1B work visas are awarded to Indians, mainly for positions in the tech sector.
• Nearly a quarter (23%) of tech workers in Silicon Valley with a bachelor’s degree or higher are Indian-born (including the current CEOs of Google, Microsoft, and IBM).
• Indian-born doctors are the largest segment of immigrant doctors in the US.

The explains what could happen if Indian students choose to go elsewhere to study and work in STEM fields:

“The broader impact on the US could be severe: hospitals facing doctor shortages, universities struggling to attract STEM students, and start-ups without the lobbying muscle of Google or Amazon are likely to be hit hardest.”

The future impact of structural bias in F-1 visa processing

The Shorelight report concludes:

“With student visa refusals in India climbing up to 60%, we’re not just denying students, we’re cutting off a critical talent pipeline for US universities, employers, and the economy. Without expanding opportunities in other high-growth regions, we’re creating a self-inflicted talent shortage. In a global race for skilled workers, the US cannot afford to turn away the very students who fuel our research, workforce, and competitiveness.”

Asked by Inside Higher Ed to comment on Shorelight’s determination that visa approvals are more determined by applicants’ home countries than by merit, the US State Department said: “All visa applications are reviewed on a case-by-case basis, in accordance with US law, and adjudicated based on the facts and circumstances of the individual case.”

Shorelight’s recommendations

Within the Shorelight report are “evidence-based solutions to address this challenge [of structural bias in F-1 visa processing],” including a call for “greater transparency in denials, standardised financial guidance, specialised training for high-refusal consulates, dual-intent for F-1 visas, and codifying OPT.” The full report .

For additional background, please see:‹

• “US: Student visa issuances fell by -36% in summer 2025; OPT uncertainty among factors affecting international student demand”
• “Australia: Student visa refusal rates reach record high amid weakening demand from China”

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Some of these changes are in effect immediately; some are still pending.

What has already changed?

As of 1 April 2026, international students no longer need a separate co-op work permit that are part of their post-secondary programme in Canada. This change applies to work-integrated learning components within the student’s programme of study, including co-op placements, internships, practicums, and mentorships.

This is a significant departure from the previous practice where students pursing any such work-integrated learning placement were obliged to obtain a separate co-op work permit in addition to their study permit.

Commenting on the change on LinkedIn, Ankita Goyal, an adjunct professor of immigration law at Queen’s University, said, “Removing the need for a co-op work permit means students won’t be stuck waiting to start their placements—something that has historically caused delays, stress, and even lost opportunities.”

“This change simplifies the administrative process for students by requiring only one permit to complete a single study programme,” adds a statement from IRCC. “It does not increase the number of students who are authorised to work or affect temporary resident volumes; it simply removes an administrative step that is no longer necessary.”

In order to be eligible to carry out any such work-integrated learning with only a study permit, the work placement must be a requirement of the study programme. The updated IRCC guidance says that eligible students must meet all of the following conditions:

• “You have conditions printed on your initial study permit that say you’re allowed to work on campus.
• You have a letter from your DLI [Designated Learning Institution] that confirms the work placement is a requirement of your study program.
• You have a valid study permit or you applied to extend your study permit before it expired.
• You’re a full-time student at a DLI.
• Your study programme is at least 6 months long, at a post-secondary level and leads to a degree, diploma or certificate.
• The work placement of your study programme totals 50% or less of your study programme.”

Further easing ahead?

In addition to those immediate changes around co-op of other work placements, IRCC has also proposed to rules around post-graduation work permits (PGWP).

Most notable among these is a proposal, for which consultations will be ongoing for the next month or two, that would allow international students to work without a work permit in cases where:

• An international student is waiting for a decision on a study permit extension; and
• An international graduate is awaiting a decision on an application for a post-graduation work permit (PGWP).

“When international students finish their programme, they can apply for a PGWP. However, there’s a gap between graduating and receiving the PGWP,” says a related report on . “Currently, gaps between permit expiry and approval of a new permit can leave students and graduates in limbo, and unsure about their ability to work, even though current regulations do allow graduates to begin work before receiving their work permit.”

The process and timeline for implementation of any new rules around PGWPs is not yet clear, but the current proposals reflect the government’s stated intention to streamline and Canada’s immigration system, and so seem likely to proceed in some form.

For additional background, please see:

• “Canada: Government audit finds impact of international student cap far greater than expected“
• “Canada’s foreign enrolment has fallen by nearly 300,000 students over the last two years“
• “Canada: A case study of immigration policy impacts on postsecondary institutions and the wider economy“

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